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Topic: Global Warming (Read 104676 times)
Soldier4Christ
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Re: Global Warming
«
Reply #150 on:
February 19, 2008, 12:51:38 PM »
'Coldest winter in decades'
New evidence casts doubt on claims world's ice-caps really melting
Satellite data shows that concerns over the levels of sea ice may have been premature.
It was feared that the polar caps were vanishing because of the effects of global warming.
But figures from the respected US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration show that almost all the “lost” ice has come back.
Ice levels which had shrunk from 13million sq km in January 2007 to just four million in October, are almost back to their original levels.
Figures show that there is nearly a third more ice in Antarctica than is usual for the time of year.
The data flies in the face of many current thinkers and will be seized on by climate change sceptics who deny that the world is undergoing global warming.
A photograph of polar bears clinging on to a melting iceberg has become one of the most enduring images in the campaign against climate change.
It was used by former US Vice President Al Gore during his Inconvenient Truth lectures about mankind’s impact on the world. But scientists say the northern hemisphere has endured its coldest winter in decades.
They add that snow cover across the area is at its greatest since 1966.
The one exception is Western Europe, which has – until the weekend when temperatures plunged to as low as -10C in some places – been basking in unseasonably warm weather. The UK has reported one of its warmest winters on record.
However, vast swathes of the world have suffered chaos because of some of the heaviest snowfalls in decades.
Central and southern China, the USA and Canada were hit hard by snowstorms.
Even the Middle East saw snow, with Jerusalem, Damascus, Amman and northern Saudi Arabia reporting the heaviest falls in years and below-zero temperatures. Meanwhile, in Afghanistan snow and freezing weather killed 120 people.
In Britain the barmy February weather came to an abrupt halt at the weekend as temperatures plunged to -10C in central England.
Experts believe that this month could end up as one of the coldest Februaries in Britain in the past 10 years.
The freezing night-time conditions look set to stay around -8C until at least the middle of the week.
A Met Office spokesman explained: “There has been little or no cloud cover across England and Wales. So there is a capacity for a fair bit of heat to be able to escape at night.
“It has been warmer in Scotland but that’s because it has been cloudy there.
“Until the weekend the temperatures were in the 14s and 15s, and we will see a return to that later this week, though it will look grey and overcast when the clouds return.”
But he added that there was little chance of snow. He said: “When the rain comes it will get warmer.”
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Soldier4Christ
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Re: Global Warming
«
Reply #151 on:
February 19, 2008, 12:56:18 PM »
THIS COMMENT SUMS UP THE SNAKE OIL OF GLOBAL WARMING
" I have a spiffy computer model that tells me you may contract cancer in the future. Maybe twenty or 100 years from now. Who knows? Forget the measurable fact that you have no symptoms now; my program predicts your demise — your temperature may rise to least 110 and all of your fingers may fall off. And your dog may die with you.
Therefore, the only logical thing to do to avert your pending demise is to administer chemotherapy to you, starting today. You will get terribly sick from this preventative medicine, you’ll suffer serious side-effects, and you could easily die from it. Many doctors have objected to my course of action, advising a more cautious approach, but they are deniers. My intentions are good and my models are flawless, reviewed by my like-minded friends. Who are these doctors to question me?
Take your medicine. It’s for your own good. Trust me. "
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nChrist
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Re: Global Warming
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Reply #152 on:
February 19, 2008, 01:21:34 PM »
BUT, Al Gore and his friends want and need all of those billions of dollars. The MONEY - NOT weather - is what this is all about.
AND, the environmentalists would have bought this story from Elmer Fudd. OH - excuse me - they did buy the story from Elmer Fudd.
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Soldier4Christ
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Re: Global Warming
«
Reply #153 on:
February 19, 2008, 01:35:41 PM »
Now why did you have to go and ruin poor Elmer Fudd's reputation by associating him with nuts.
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nChrist
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Re: Global Warming
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Reply #154 on:
February 19, 2008, 01:49:07 PM »
Quote from: Pastor Roger on February 19, 2008, 01:35:41 PM
Now why did you have to go and ruin poor Elmer Fudd's reputation by associating him with nuts.
The wascally wabbit did it.
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Soldier4Christ
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Re: Global Warming
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Reply #155 on:
February 21, 2008, 11:05:59 AM »
Garbage in, garbage out: More bad warming data
Another temperature-monitor station riddled with problems, says meteorologist
A meteorologist performing a comprehensive study of temperature-monitoring stations that provide data about global warming says the official facility at Chicago's O'Hare International Airport is riddled with problems that render it useless to scientists.
But the data collected there is being used nonetheless.
Anthony Watts concludes in his investigation that the station at O'Hare is affected by an urban heat effect that would make temperature readings inaccurate as an indicator of what is actually occurring regionally.
"The community around O'Hare was much smaller during World War II, when the airport was built, than it is now," says Watts. "The area had a significantly less-urban population and lacked the acres of concrete and asphalt that exist there today."
The problems at O'Hare are similar to those found by Watts around the country in his study of temperature stations used by NASA and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration..
What he has found elsewhere are temperature stations with sensors on the roofs of buildings, near air-conditioning exhaust vents, in parking lots near hot automobiles, barbecues, chimneys and on pavement and concrete surfaces – all of which would lead to higher temperature recordings than properly established conditions.
To qualify as a properly maintained temperature station, sensors must be placed in elevated, slatted boxes on flat ground surrounded by a clear surface on a slope of less than 19 degrees with surrounding grass and vegetations ground cover of less than 10 centimeters high. The sensors must be located at least 100 meters from artificial heating or reflecting surfaces, such as buildings, concrete surfaces and parking lots.
Watts' concerns about the temperatures being used to gauge whether global warming is actually taking place began when he read a 1997 study by the U.S. National Research Council that concluded the consistency and quality of temperature stations was "inadequate and deteriorating." Meanwhile, he learned, the U.S. Historical Climatological Network, responsible for maintaining the stations, was doing nothing to address the problems.
So Watts decided to take up the challenge himself. After surveying a few randomly chosen temperature stations and being shocked at the shortcomings, he set forth on a plan to survey all 1,221 stations, taking photographs along the way. With the help of volunteers, Watts has systematically surveyed one-third of the official weather stations.
The vast majority of the stations surveyed to date fail to meet the prescribed standards. Using a scale of 1 to 5, with 1 reflecting proper maintenance and standards and 5 representing facilities that are severely compromised, Watts says 70 percent of those stations surveyed received a 4 or 5 rating, while only 4 percent received a grade of 1.
All of the most egregious violations he has observed in the study would result in artificially higher temperatures being recorded.
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Shammu
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Forget global warming
«
Reply #156 on:
February 27, 2008, 03:32:19 PM »
Forget global warming
Lorne Gunter, National Post
February 25, 2008
Snow cover over North America and much of Siberia, Mongolia and China is greater than at any time since 1966.
The U.S. National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) reported that many American cities and towns suffered record cold temperatures in January and early February. According to the NCDC, the average temperature in January "was -0.3 F cooler than the 1901-2000 (20th century) average."
China is surviving its most brutal winter in a century. Temperatures in the normally balmy south were so low for so long that some middle-sized cities went days and even weeks without electricity because once power lines had toppled it was too cold or too icy to repair them.
There have been so many snow and ice storms in Ontario and Quebec in the past two months that the real estate market has felt the pinch as home buyers have stayed home rather than venturing out looking for new houses.
In just the first two weeks of February, Toronto received 70 cm of snow, smashing the record of 66.6 cm for the entire month set back in the pre-SUV, pre-Kyoto, pre-carbon footprint days of 1950.
And remember the Arctic Sea ice? The ice we were told so hysterically last fall had melted to its "lowest levels on record? Never mind that those records only date back as far as 1972 and that there is anthropological and geological evidence of much greater melts in the past.
The ice is back.
Gilles Langis, a senior forecaster with the Canadian Ice Service in Ottawa, says the Arctic winter has been so severe the ice has not only recovered, it is actually 10 to 20 cm thicker in many places than at this time last year.
OK, so one winter does not a climate make. It would be premature to claim an Ice Age is looming just because we have had one of our most brutal winters in decades.
But if environmentalists and environment reporters can run around shrieking about the manmade destruction of the natural order every time a robin shows up on Georgian Bay two weeks early, then it is at least fair game to use this winter's weather stories to wonder whether the alarmist are being a tad premature.
And it's not just anecdotal evidence that is piling up against the climate-change dogma.
According to Robert Toggweiler of the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory at Princeton University and Joellen Russell, assistant professor of biogeochemical dynamics at the University of Arizona -- two prominent climate modellers -- the computer models that show polar ice-melt cooling the oceans, stopping the circulation of warm equatorial water to northern latitudes and triggering another Ice Age (a la the movie The Day After Tomorrow) are all wrong.
"We missed what was right in front of our eyes," says Prof. Russell. It's not ice melt but rather wind circulation that drives ocean currents northward from the tropics. Climate models until now have not properly accounted for the wind's effects on ocean circulation, so researchers have compensated by over-emphasizing the role of manmade warming on polar ice melt.
But when Profs. Toggweiler and Russell rejigged their model to include the 40-year cycle of winds away from the equator (then back towards it again), the role of ocean currents bringing warm southern waters to the north was obvious in the current Arctic warming.
Last month, Oleg Sorokhtin, a fellow of the Russian Academy of Natural Sciences, shrugged off manmade climate change as "a drop in the bucket." Showing that solar activity has entered an inactive phase, Prof. Sorokhtin advised people to "stock up on fur coats."
He is not alone. Kenneth Tapping of our own National Research Council, who oversees a giant radio telescope focused on the sun, is convinced we are in for a long period of severely cold weather if sunspot activity does not pick up soon.
The last time the sun was this inactive, Earth suffered the Little Ice Age that lasted about five centuries and ended in 1850. Crops failed through killer frosts and drought. Famine, plague and war were widespread. Harbours froze, so did rivers, and trade ceased.
It's way too early to claim the same is about to happen again, but then it's way too early for the hysteria of the global warmers, too.
Forget global warming
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Shammu
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Temperature Monitors Report Widescale Global Cooling
«
Reply #157 on:
February 27, 2008, 03:34:52 PM »
Temperature Monitors Report Widescale Global Cooling
Michael Asher (Blog) - February 26, 2008 12:55 PM
Twelve-month long drop in world temperatures wipes out a century of warming
Over the past year, anecdotal evidence for a cooling planet has exploded. China has its coldest winter in 100 years. Baghdad sees its first snow in all recorded history. North America has the most snowcover in 50 years, with places like Wisconsin the highest since record-keeping began. Record levels of Antarctic sea ice, record cold in Minnesota, Texas, Florida, Mexico, Australia, Iran, Greece, South Africa, Greenland, Argentina, Chile -- the list goes on and on.
No more than anecdotal evidence, to be sure. But now, that evidence has been supplanted by hard scientific fact. All four major global temperature tracking outlets (Hadley, NASA's GISS, UAH, RSS) have released updated data. All show that over the past year, global temperatures have dropped precipitously.
A compiled list of all the sources can be seen here. The total amount of cooling ranges from 0.65C up to 0.75C -- a value large enough to wipe out nearly all the warming recorded over the past 100 years. All in one year's time. For all four sources, it's the single fastest temperature change ever recorded, either up or down.
Scientists quoted in a past DailyTech article link the cooling to reduced solar activity which they claim is a much larger driver of climate change than man-made greenhouse gases. The dramatic cooling seen in just 12 months time seems to bear that out. While the data doesn't itself disprove that carbon dioxide is acting to warm the planet, it does demonstrate clearly that more powerful factors are now cooling it.
Let's hope those factors stop fast. Cold is more damaging than heat. The mean temperature of the planet is about 54 degrees. Humans -- and most of the crops and animals we depend on -- prefer a temperature closer to 70.
Historically, the warm periods such as the Medieval Climate Optimum were beneficial for civilization. Corresponding cooling events such as the Little Ice Age, though, were uniformly bad news.
Temperature Monitors Report Widescale Global Cooling
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Shammu
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Northern Residents Lament Snowy Winter
«
Reply #158 on:
February 27, 2008, 03:38:29 PM »
Northern Residents Lament Snowy Winter
Feb 26, 9:13 PM (ET)
By DON BABWIN
CHICAGO (AP) - Betty Stewart's Tuesday started with her stepping into a slushy puddle just long enough to get her sock wet and having her newspaper blown from her hands and getting soaked on the ground.
"Enough already," she said.
Like many others, the 30-year-old receptionist has had it with winter and what seems like unusually wet weather.
"Coming to work, people are mad at the world," said Olivia Young, a customer service associate in downtown Chicago. Winter, she said, "just puts you in an overwrought situation."
Experts say people in some northern states aren't just looking to complain; the weather this winter truly is worse in some ways.
In Boston, for example, 49.6 inches of snow has fallen this winter, or 19.3 inches more than normal. In Madison, Wis., where it never had snowed more than 76.6 inches, the city already had seen 77 inches by Feb. 12.
Last week, Grand Rapids, Mich., shattered its December-February snowfall record of 85.1 inches set in 1951-52. As of Tuesday afternoon, 90.4 inches had fallen. And though the month doesn't end until Friday, the city has a new February record of 37.1 inches, surpassing 1990's 35.5 inches.
On Tuesday, snow fell from Illinois to New England, with more than 6 inches on the ground by late morning in northern Indiana and Ohio. Up to 16 inches of snow was possible across northern Vermont, New Hampshire and Maine, the National Weather Service said.
In Chicago, more than 50 inches has fallen since the beginning of December, which is about 15 inches above normal and makes this the first winter since 1978-79 the area has seen more than 50 inches of snow, said Amy Seeley, a weather service meteorologist.
Snowy weather and fluctuating temperatures have led to Chicago having to fill in more than 60,000 potholes since Dec. 1 - nearly twice the number filled during the same period last year and, as any Chicago driver can tell you, a fraction of those out there.
Some communities are running low on road salt, scrambling to find more and reporting in some cases a spike in traffic accidents because roads are not sufficiently salted.
Officials at Southern Illinois University are lamenting ice, not snow, after it forced them to cancel classes three times this month.
"Snow, you can plow that right off," said school spokesman Rod Sievers. "But the ice was just brutal, brutal."
Evrod Cassimy knows exactly how brutal after spending 11 hours stranded in a traffic jam south of Madison, Wis. earlier this month when a storm dumped 12 to 19 inches of snow.
"I am fed up with it," said Cassimy, who lives in Rockford, Ill. and works in Madison. "It is just kind of one of those things if I hear there's snow, I just don't even want to believe it any more. I am definitely sick of it."
All this snowing, thawing and freezing has people slipping and falling on sidewalks or crashing their cars on streets as slippery as hockey rinks.
"We're definitely experiencing more ... people with broken arms, a lot of fall-type injuries, and car accidents," said Rockford Memorial Hospital spokesman Mike Wiltse. "Driveways and sidewalks are nothing but ice."
What makes it worse, people say, is it seems there's been no break, with storms arriving one after another.
"It's been endless," Roland Swanson said as he waited to cross a street in South Bend, Ind. "It just keeps coming. It's killing us by the inch."
Northern Residents Lament Snowy Winter
~~~~~~~~
I would not look for the UN and Gore letting go of the cash-cow called Global warming anytime soon though. I remember it snowing in Los Angeles (elevation 38 feet) back in 1967-68.........
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nChrist
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Re: Global Warming
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Reply #159 on:
February 27, 2008, 07:36:33 PM »
It's like the rest of the GLOBAL INSANITY! NO! - They won't let it go, and common sense won't prevail. There's MONEY in it for the Al Gores of this world. The same is true for SUPER HIGHWAYS, NORTH AMERICAN UNIONS, ETC., ETC.
The INSANITY TRAIN has already left the station, and it's a RUNAWAY TRAIN without any brakes. This is in all areas. It appears that the INSANITY TRAIN serves the entire world.
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Re: Global Warming
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Reply #160 on:
March 04, 2008, 10:13:21 PM »
Scientists meet in NYC to challenge Gore, U.N.
Hundreds of experts assert 'alarmists' in climate debate 'have had their say'
Global warming is a natural process, not likely the result of human activities, argued more than 100 internationally prominent environmental scientists in papers presented at the 2008 International Conference on Climate Change, which concluded here today.
The conference, organized by the Heartland Institute, sought to refute the contention promoted by Al Gore and the U.N. that there is an "established scientific consensus" that human beings are causing the earth to warm catastrophically. The event attracted more than 500 people, including scientists, economists, policy experts and members of the public from around the world.
"The purpose of the conference is to provide a platform for the hundreds of scientists, economists, and policy experts who dissent from the so-called 'consensus' on global warming," said Joseph Bast, president of the Chicago-based Heartland Institute. "This is their chance to speak out."
"Is global warming 'An Inconvenient Truth,' as Vice President Al Gore charges, or a 'Global Warming Swindle?' Harriet Johnson, spokeswoman for the Heartland Institute asked in a statement distributed at the start of the three-day conference.
"The alarmists in the global warming debate have had their say – over and over again, in every newspaper in the country practically every day and in countless news reports and documentary films," a notice on the Heartland Institute website proclaims. "But they have lost the debate."
Environmental scientist S. Fred Singer kicked off the conference by releasing a report entitled, "Nature, Not Human Activity Rules the Climate," summarizing a three-year international scientific research project conducted by the Nongovernmental Panel on Climate Change, or NIPCC, that Singer headed.
"There are many factors that affect the climate," Singer told WND. "What we can now exclude by scientific evidence is the argument that greenhouse gases are an important factor in causing global warming."
Singer and the NIPCC agree that global warming occurred in the 20th century, but disagree human activity is responsible. He argues instead that natural causes are likely to be the dominant cause of the scientifically observed global warming under discussion.
The NIPCC scientists contend the U.N. agenda "is largely hypothetical and not sustained by observations" driven by complex mathematical models.
The computer models, the NIPCC scientists claim, are only valid in a "virtual computer world," but fail to produce reliable real world predictions that can be empirically verified.
"Computer models undoubtedly have their place as a way of projecting possible consequences when one or more variables are changed," the NIPCC scientists wrote in their newly released report. "However, models do not represent reality, yet the IPCC persists in treating them as if they do."
The newly released NIPCC report presents scientific evidence that solar-wind variability is a primary cause of climate change, a better explanation for 20th century warming than greenhouse gas effects.
Moreover, the NIPCC report argues the IPCC's estimates of future human-generated carbon dioxide emissions are too high and the higher concentrations of carbon dioxide that can be attributed to human activity have been beneficial to plant and animal life.
"Global warming is attributable to natural causes," Singer told WND, "so in that sense global warming is unstoppable, regardless what measures Al Gore or the U.N. want to impose on us with new international governmental regulations."
"Unstoppable Global Warming – Every 1,500 Years" is the title of Singer's New York Times best-selling book, co-authored with Hudson Institute scientist Dennis T. Avery.
Examining geological and historical data, Singer and Avery claim to have established a 1,500 year-cycle that generates warming and cooling of the earth's atmosphere, regardless of the atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases.
The NIPCC report issued at the New York City conference was written to counter the work of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, or IPCC, a scientific panel established in 1988 by the U.N. to evaluate the risk of climate change.
The IPCC and Gore and the won the 2007 Nobel Peace Prize for efforts to disseminate their theory about man-made climate change.
The IPCC released a report Nov. 17 in Valencia, Spain, entitled, "Climate Change 2007," arguing "much of the observed increase in globally averaged temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the observed increase in anthropogenic GHG (greenhouse gas) concentrations."
The U.N. has utilized the IPCC to launch an aggressive agenda, largely supporting the Kyoto Protocol, calling for the establishment of a global response to climate change.
At the core of the U.N. agenda is an array of recommended governmental policies designed to reduce carbon dioxide emissions, including the creation an international carbon market that imposes economic penalties for non-compliance.
"Al Gore and the U.N. have a fixation with the argument that we cause global warming," Singer said. "Besides that, look at the billions of tax dollars going into various schemes like subsidizing biofuels. We're being charged twice by the global warming alarmists – once in new taxes the U.N. is planning to impose on us and then again as consumers who will ultimately have to bear the cost of these new global taxes."
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nChrist
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Re: Global Warming
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Reply #161 on:
March 04, 2008, 10:27:40 PM »
YEAH!! - It's about time, and I hope that the world listens. I also heard a news spot today about the founder of a weather channel filing a law suit against Al Gore for fraud - taking money under false pretences!
If we don't stop this global nonsense, we will all pay through the nose for absolutely nothing. Our already ailing economy will also take a horrible hit if the planned NONSENSE of Al Gore is implemented.
UM? - WHAT A NOVEL FACT! - CHANGES IN THE SUN CAUSE CLIMATE CHANGE! - WHO WOULD HAVE DREAMED OF SUCH A THING?
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Re: Global Warming
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Reply #162 on:
March 04, 2008, 10:36:21 PM »
The founder of The Weather Channel has long voiced his dissent against the fraud of global warming. He is highly upset with the networks reports on climate change and wants to sue all those that sell carbon credits for fraud.
Like he said a law suit of that nature would really get some attention. They would have to keep it out the liberal courts like those in California though in order to do any good.
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Re: Global Warming
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Reply #163 on:
March 09, 2008, 05:17:20 PM »
Snow shatters 98-year record
'We need to be smart, take care of ourselves and attempt to be helpful to others'
Midwest Cleans Up After Record Snowfall
Highway and utility crews worked overtime Sunday to recover from the huge storm that buried Ohio and other parts of the Midwest in snow and tore down power lines elsewhere.
More than 20 inches of snow fell from Friday through Saturday at Columbus, eclipsing the city's previous record of 15.3 inches set in February 1910, the National Weather Service said. Elsewhere on Saturday, 14 inches fell at Milan, Ind.; and up to a foot fell at Louisville, Ky., Buffalo, N.Y., Cleveland, Cincinnati, and parts of Tennessee. Arkansas collected a foot of snow Friday.
Many churches in the Columbus area canceled Sunday services because roads were still slippery.
Cleveland Hopkins International Airport, which shut down Saturday, reopened Sunday but flight delays and cancelations were expected as airlines tried to get their schedules back on track, spokesman Todd Payne said.
Delays also were expected at Port Columbus International Airport, where 90 percent of flights were canceled Saturday.
"We will get through this," Gov. Ted Strickland said Saturday. "The snow will stop, the wind will cease, and the sun will shine. But until that happens we need to be smart, take care of ourselves and attempt to be helpful to others."
Ohio had one traffic death linked to the weather, and four men died while shoveling snow. Two traffic deaths were blamed on the storm in western New York state and one in Tennessee. Two people were killed Friday as tornadoes spun out of the eastern edge of the weather system in Florida.
The storm also made roads slippery and snow-covered in western New York and caused flooding that closed roads in other parts of the state. On Sunday, high wind and falling temperatures created brisk wind chills in much of the state.
Utility companies in southeastern Pennsylvania said Sunday they had restored power to most of the 80,000 customers who were blacked out Saturday by power lines snapped by wind and falling tree limbs.
More than 100,000 New Jersey homes and businesses lost power at the height of thunderstorms that boiled up along the eastern part of the weather system, and some commuter train routes into New York City were blocked by fallen trees, authorities said. Wind gusted to 65 mph in New Jersey, the weather service said.
In Maryland, the storm system's wind blew a ship away from its pier Saturday in Baltimore. Coast Guard Petty Officer 3rd Class Ayla Stevens said no one was injured when the car-carrier's mooring lines broke and the ship was pushed out into the city's harbor.
People around the world have gotten hit with unusually cold weather. In June, children in Johannesburg, South Africa, woke up to snowfall, a very rare occurrence even in the southern hemisphere's winter season.
Blizzards and severe snowstorms across China in January forced the evacuation of more than 100,000 people. The weather also stopped train travel, stranding several hundred thousand passengers.
After weathering nearly five years of war, Baghdad residents thought they'd seen it all, but in January, for the first time in memory, snow fell across the city.
Residents wade through a flooded street last month in Trinidad, Bolivia. Experts say that La Nina, a periodic cooling of waters in the Pacific Ocean, is responsible for a rainy season there and is likely contributing to the cold spell around the world.
After retreating last year, Arctic sea ice is returning, giving global warming skeptics a point to argue in environmental debates.
A postal carrier braves a snow storm in Illinois last month. "The current downturn is not very unusual," said Carl Mears, a scientist at Remote Sensing Systems. "Temperatures are very likely to recover after the La Nina event is over."
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Re: Global Warming
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Reply #164 on:
March 10, 2008, 11:21:09 PM »
Climate expert: Greenhouse equations 'totally wrong'
Global warning activist admits 'runaway warming' impossible
New derivation of equations governing the greenhouse effect reveals "runaway warming" impossible
Miklós Zágoni isn't just a physicist and environmental researcher. He is also a global warming activist and Hungary's most outspoken supporter of the Kyoto Protocol. Or was.
That was until he learned the details of a new theory of the greenhouse effect, one that not only gave far more accurate climate predictions here on Earth, but Mars too. The theory was developed by another Hungarian scientist, Ferenc Miskolczi, an atmospheric physicist with 30 years of experience and a former researcher with NASA's Langley Research Center.
After studying it, Zágoni stopped calling global warming a crisis, and has instead focused on presenting the new theory to other climatologists. The data fit extremely well. "I fell in love," he stated at the International Climate Change Conference this week.
"Runaway greenhouse theories contradict energy balance equations," Miskolczi states. Just as the theory of relativity sets an upper limit on velocity, his theory sets an upper limit on the greenhouse effect, a limit which prevents it from warming the Earth more than a certain amount.
How did modern researchers make such a mistake? They relied upon equations derived over 80 years ago, equations which left off one term from the final solution.
Miskolczi's story reads like a book. Looking at a series of differential equations for the greenhouse effect, he noticed the solution -- originally done in 1922 by Arthur Milne, but still used by climate researchers today -- ignored boundary conditions by assuming an "infinitely thick" atmosphere. Similar assumptions are common when solving differential equations; they simplify the calculations and often result in a result that still very closely matches reality. But not always.
So Miskolczi re-derived the solution, this time using the proper boundary conditions for an atmosphere that is not infinite. His result included a new term, which acts as a negative feedback to counter the positive forcing. At low levels, the new term means a small difference ... but as greenhouse gases rise, the negative feedback predominates, forcing values back down.
NASA refused to release the results. Miskolczi believes their motivation is simple. "Money", he tells DailyTech. Research that contradicts the view of an impending crisis jeopardizes funding, not only for his own atmosphere-monitoring project, but all climate-change research. Currently, funding for climate research tops $5 billion per year.
Miskolczi resigned in protest, stating in his resignation letter, "Unfortunately my working relationship with my NASA supervisors eroded to a level that I am not able to tolerate. My idea of the freedom of science cannot coexist with the recent NASA practice of handling new climate change related scientific results."
His theory was eventually published in a peer-reviewed scientific journal in his home country of Hungary.
The conclusions are supported by research published in the Journal of Geophysical Research last year from Steven Schwartz of Brookhaven National Labs, who gave statistical evidence that the Earth's response to carbon dioxide was grossly overstated. It also helps to explain why current global climate models continually predict more warming than actually measured.
The equations also answer thorny problems raised by current theory, which doesn't explain why "runaway" greenhouse warming hasn't happened in the Earth's past. The new theory predicts that greenhouse gas increases should result in small, but very rapid temperature spikes, followed by much longer, slower periods of cooling -- exactly what the paleoclimatic record demonstrates.
However, not everyone is convinced. Dr. Stephen Garner, with the NOAA's Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL), says such negative feedback effects are "not very plausible". Reto Ruedy of NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies says greenhouse theory is "200 year old science" and doubts the possibility of dramatic changes to the basic theory.
Miskowlczi has used his theory to model not only Earth, but the Martian atmosphere as well, showing what he claims is an extremely good fit with observational results. For now, the data for Venus is too limited for similar analysis, but Miskolczi hopes it will one day be possible.
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Joh 9:4 I must work the works of him that sent me, while it is day: the night cometh, when no man can work.
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