Prophecy, Drought, Earthquakes, Famine, Pestilence, War, and Strange Weather.

[Soldier4Christ]

Scientists study unusual volcano plume

CHAMPAIGN, IL, United States (UPI) -- Photographs of a recent volcanic eruption in Ecuador show a plume unlike any previously documented, and hint at a newly recognized hazard.

The usual volcanic plume resembles the mushroom of an atom bomb blast, said University of Illinois Geology Professor Susan Kieffer. 'But the umbrella on this plume was wavy, like the shell of a scallop.'

Kieffer, UI Professor Gustavo Gioia, and graduate student Pinaki Chakraborty believe they know what caused the unusual cloud.

The volcano erupted Nov. 3, 2002, sending ash down nearby valleys, heating the surrounding air, which then rose in a volcanic plume.

'A volcanic plume rises until the atmosphere becomes so thin that the mixture of air and ash loses buoyancy and starts to spread laterally, forming an umbrella,' Gioia said.

But the Reventador eruption appears to have been laden with fairly cool ash, preventing the umbrella from spreading. It rapidly became a heavy mixture of air, steam and ash hovering over the lighter air below.

'Turbulence magnifies the wavelength,' Chakraborty, the paper`s lead author, said. 'It gave the Reventador umbrella its distinctive scallops, which were hundreds of meters in wavelength.'

[Soldier4Christ]

Alaska storm due Friday

SAN DIEGO – The next storm making its way south from the Gulf of Alaska is expected to hit San Diego County Friday evening and linger through the weekend, bringing with it up to an inch and a half of rain.

Stan Wasowski, a National Weather Service forecaster, said it will be a repeat of last weekend's downpour, though the showers won't be as strong. But hail, snow and strong winds are still in the forecast.

Winds are expected to pick up to 20 to 30 mph late Friday evening and stay strong through Sunday, when the showers are expected to move out of the county, Wasowski said.

Snow will again dust the tops of the local mountains. Forecasters estimate between 10 inches to a foot and a half of fresh snow above the 5,000 foot level.

Temperatures will rise only to the 50s and drop to the 40s at night both along the coast and inland, Wasowski said.

In the mountains and deserts, highs will be in the upper 30s and low 40s. Lows will dip to the 20s.

[Soldier4Christ]

Experts predict active storm season

Weather experts are predicting that warmer than average waters in the Gulf of Mexico could help incubate as many as 17 named storms this hurricane season.

Seven of those storms are predicted to be hurricanes, five of which could be “major” storms of Category 3 power or higher, said Eric Carpenter, senior meteorologist at the National Weather Service in Jackson.

“That could certainly be conservative,” Carpenter said.

With Gulf waters several degrees higher than they were this time last year, it is “definitely not good in terms of hurricanes,” he said.

Carpenter said he did not know the exact temperature increase in the Gulf.

But a Federal Emergency Management Agency representative told about 250 residents of Pass Christian that waters were 6 degrees warmer than they were last March at a City Council meeting Tuesday, said Chipper McDermott, the city’s alderman-at-large.

“I tell you what, if one of those things comes to Pass Christian, we’re going to make our corporate limits in Forrest County,” McDermott said.

The National Hurricane Center will not issue its hurricane outlook until a May 22 press conference kicking off National Hurricane Awareness Week, said Dennis Feltgen, meteorologist and public affairs officer at National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration headquarters in Washington, D.C.

Hurricane season officially begins June 1. Last year saw 30 named storms, 15 of which were hurricanes and 7 of which were classified as Category 3 or higher.

[Soldier4Christ]

Winter Storm Heads For Midwest
Winter Storm Watch Issued For Northern Iowa

Get ready for another blast of winter -- especially in northern Iowa.

A winter storm is heading for the region, and snow is likely over northern Iowa as well as neighboring parts of South Dakota, Minnesota and Wisconsin, starting Wednesday night.

The National Weather Service said heavy snow -- up to 8 inches -- is possible by Thursday.

Strong winds will follow, creating blowing and drifting snow. A winter storm watch has been issued for portions of northern Iowa for Wednesday night into Thursday.

[Shammu]

Scientists Closely Watch Augustine Volcano

Wed Mar 15, 10:09 PM ET

KENAI, Alaska - Recent changes with the Augustine Volcano indicate that the activity the volcano is exhibiting now is less explosive than what occurred in January.

Scientists, however, are continuing to keep an eye on the Cook Inlet volcano. Activity at the volcano climbed to a new level last week.

Measurements and observations made on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday show the nature of the activity is less hazardous than the explosive activity the volcano exhibited in mid-January.

Increased levels of carbon dioxide measured in emissions and overflight observations indicate recent seismicity is tied to dome building rather than explosions.

"Now we're in a period of big dome growth," said Peter Cervelli, a U.S. Geological Survey geophysicist with the Alaska Volcano Observatory.

Overflight observations and emissions measurements have found that the dome walls have accumulated more rock and that carbon dioxide levels have risen, indicating that the volcano is producing new magma. But new magma does not necessarily mean more explosions.

"Sometimes it comes out violently and sometimes it oozes out like a tube of toothpaste," Cervelli said. "And that's what it's doing right now."

The kind of lava that flows from Augustine tends to be cooler and thicker than the lava that flows from Hawaiian volcanoes.

Whether or not the volcano explodes or oozes depends on whether the path of the lava, and the gases contained in it, is obstructed.

"The system seems to be open and flowing now," said Rick Wessels, a research geophysicist for USGS and AVO.

The current toothpaste-like flow of lava from Augustine Volcano is building up the walls of the dome, causing occasional collapses and resulting in some of the increased seismic activity that has been measured over the course of the last couple of weeks.

Most of the recent low-elevation ash clouds can also be attributed to the collapses. The low-elevation ash clouds are not likely to travel far beyond the island.

Although explosive eruptive activity has not been ruled out for the near future, the volcano is likely to continue its current dome building activity for a couple of months, Cervelli said.

Scientists Closely Watch Augustine Volcano

[Shammu]

Warmer Seas Creating Stronger Hurricanes, Study Confirms
By Ker Than
LiveScience Staff Writer
posted: 16 March 2006
02:00 pm ET

A rise in the world's sea surface temperatures was the primary contributor to the formation of stronger hurricanes since 1970, a new study reports.

While the question of what role, if any, humans have had in all this is still a matter of intense debate, most scientists agree that stronger storms are likely to be the norm in future hurricane seasons.

The study is detailed in the March 17 issue of the journal Science.

An alarming trend

In the 1970s, the average number of intense Category 4 and 5 hurricanes occurring globally was about 10 per year. Since 1990, that number has nearly doubled, averaging about 18 a year.

Category 4 hurricanes have sustained winds from 131 to 155 mph. Category 5 systems, such as Hurricane Katrina at its peak, feature winds of 156 mph or more. Wilma last year set a record as the most intense hurricane on record with winds of 175 mph.

Hurricanes from Above

While some scientists believe this trend is just part of natural ocean and atmospheric cycles, others argue that rising sea surface temperatures as a side effect of global warming is the primary culprit.

According to this scenario, warming temperatures heat up the surface of the oceans, increasing evaporation and putting more water vapor into the atmosphere. This in turn provides added fuel for storms as they travel over open oceans.

Other factors less important

The researchers used statistical models and techniques from a field of mathematics called information theory to determine factors contributing to hurricane strength from 1970 to 2004 in six of the world's ocean basins, including the North Atlantic, Pacific and Indian oceans.

They looked at four factors that are known to affect hurricane intensity:

    * Humidity in the troposphere—the part of the atmosphere stretching from surface of the Earth to about 6 miles up
    * Wind shear that can throttle storm formation
    * Rising sea-surface temperatures
    * Large-scale air circulation patterns known as "zonal stretching deformations"

Of these factors, only rising sea surface temperatures was found to influence hurricane intensity in a statistically significant way over a long-term basis. The other factors affected hurricane activity on short time scales only.

"We found no long-term trend in things like wind shear," said study team member Judith Curry of the Georgia Institute of Technology. "There's a lot of year to year variability but there's no global trend. In any given year, it's different for each ocean."

An answer for the critics

The new study potentially addresses one major criticism leveled by scientists skeptical of any strong link between sea surface temperatures and hurricane strength, said Kerry Emanuel, a climatologist at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology who was not involved in the study.

Last year, Emanuel published a study correlating the documented increase in hurricane duration and intensity in the Atlantic and Pacific oceans since the 1970s to rises in sea surface temperatures over the same time period.

"We were criticized by the seasonal forecasters for not including the other environmental factors, like wind shear, in our analysis," Emanuel said in an email. "[We didn't do so] because on time scales longer than 2-3 years, these do not seem to matter very much. This paper more or less proves this point."

Kevin Trenberth, the head of climate analysis at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), believes the new study's main finding is accurate but thinks the effects of some of the environmental factors on hurricane intensity might have been underestimated.

"The reason is they're covering a period from 1970 to 2004. 1979 is the year when satellites were introduced into the [NCEP/NCAR] Reanalysis. The quality of the analysis prior to 1979 is simply nowhere near as good," said Trenberth, who also was not involved in the study.

The NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis is the database the researchers drew upon for information about the effects of troposphere humidity, wind shear and zonal stretching deformation on hurricane intensity; sea surface temperature data came from a different database.

Curry acknowledged that reanalysis data prior to 1979 is of slightly lower quality than more recent data but believes this doesn't substantially change the study's main finding. Trenberth agreed: "I suspect they may well have gotten the right answer anyway," he told LiveScience.

Natural cycles?

Some scientists have explained the rising strength of hurricanes as being part of natural weather cycles in the world's oceans.

In the North Atlantic, this cycle is called the Atlantic multi-decadal mode. Every 20 to 40 years, Atlantic Ocean and atmospheric conditions conspire to produce just the right conditions to cause increased storm and hurricane activity.

The Atlantic Ocean is currently going through an active period of hurricane activity that began in 1995 and which has continued to the present. The previous active cycle lasted from the late 1920's to 1970, and peaked around 1950.

These cycles definitely do influence hurricane intensity, but they can't be the whole story, Curry said.

While scientists expect stronger hurricanes based on natural cycles alone, the researchers suspect other contributing factors, since current hurricanes are even stronger than natural cycles predict.

"We're not even at the peak of current cycle, we're only halfway up and already we're seeing activity in the North Atlantic that's 50 percent worse than what we saw during the last peak in 1950," Curry said.

Some scientists still think it's too premature to make any definitive links between sea surface temperatures and hurricane intensity.

"We simply don't have enough data yet," said Thomas Huntington in of the U.S. Geological Survey. "Category 5 hurricanes don't come around very often, so you need the benefit of a much longer time series to look back and say 'Yup, there has been an increase.'"

Huntington is the author of a recent review of more than 100 peer-reviewed studies showing that although many aspects of the global water cycle—including precipitation, evaporation and sea surface temperatures—have increased or risen, the trend cannot be consistently correlated with increases in the frequency or intensity of storms or floods over the past century. Huntington's study was announced this week and is published in the current issue of the Journal of Hydrology.

Brace yourselves

Whatever the underlying cause, most scientists agree that people will need to brace themselves for stronger hurricanes and typhoons in the coming years and decades.

However, most regions around the world will not experience more storms. The only exception to this is the North Atlantic, where hurricanes have become both more numerous and longer-lasting in recent years, especially since 1995. The reasons for this regional disparity are still unclear.

The team's findings are controversial because they draw a connection between stronger hurricanes and rising sea surface temperatures—a phenomenon that has itself already been linked to human-induced global warming.

The study by Curry and her colleagues therefore raises the frightening possibility that humans have inadvertently boosted the destructive power of one of Nature's most devastating and feared storms.

"If humans are increasing sea surface temperatures and if you buy this link between increases rising sea surface temperatures and increases in hurricane intensity, that's the conclusion you come to," Curry said.

Warmer Seas Creating Stronger Hurricanes, Study Confirms

[Shammu]

Storms expected through weekend
Kauai has six times more rain than usual for all of March
By Mary Vorsino
mvorsino@starbulletin.com

Four back-to-back storms over the last three weeks have dumped more rain on parts of the islands than they normally would have seen in months, and drenched Kauai with up to six times more rain than normal for all of March, the National Weather Service said yesterday.

The news comes as forecasters are expecting heavy rains to stick around through the weekend. The weather service also says the possibility of heavy showers will remain in the forecast for all islands for at least 10 more days.

The series of storms to hit the state has caused widespread flooding, rockfalls, sewage spills and road closures from Kauai to the Big Island.

On Tuesday night, a landslide at the Wilson Tunnel on Likelike Highway caused some rocks and mud to fall on the road. Crews will close the town-bound lanes of the tunnel today and tomorrow to prevent further rockfalls.

Homes on the Windward Coast of Oahu sustained as much as $5 million in damage after flash flooding late last month and in early March. Damage totals for other affected areas have not yet been calculated.

A flash-flood watch is in effect for the state through Friday, but could be extended, said Andy Nash, director of operations for the weather service office in Honolulu.

Heavy rains settled over parts of Oahu, Kauai and the Big Island yesterday. Lihue got more than 4.8 inches in the 24-hour period ending at 5:45 p.m. yesterday, while Wailua saw 4.6 inches.

The fourth storm in the series started Monday, forecasters said. Other storms hit from Feb. 19 to 24, March 1 to 3 and March 8 to 10.

For Hanalei, the last three weeks has been the wettest on record since 1907 -- two years after meteorologists starting recording rainfall totals for the town, Nash said.

Lihue received 25 inches over the three-week period, compared with just an inch last year. It's the wettest February and March for Lihue since 1950.

"We've just had round after round after round of heavy rain," Nash said. "For Kauai, it's certainly up there in the record books."

The record-high totals on Kauai come on the heels of an unusually dry 2005 for the island. In December, Mount Waialeale got just 1.67 inches of rain, while Lihue Airport saw just .08 inches -- both record lows.

Over the last three weeks, Mount Waialeale has seen more than 106 inches, and Lihue Airport has gotten 28.9 inches.

"Kauai has taken the brunt of the most widespread, excessive rainfall," the weather service said. "Even the normally drier leeward sides have been much wetter than normal."

On Oahu, Poamoho saw the biggest rainfall total over the three-week period, with 63 inches. Wilson Tunnel got 39.1 inches -- a far second, but a more than six-fold increase from 2005. Punaluu, Luluku and the Waihee Pump rounded out the top five rainfall totals for Oahu.

Waiakea Uka and Glenwood topped the totals for the Big Island, getting 43.6 inches and 42.9 inches, respectively -- up to four times higher than normal. Mountain View saw 37.8 inches, compared with 4 inches last year.

All the storms were created by low pressure systems northwest of the islands, which produce unstable air and tap into tropical moisture, Nash said. A high pressure system to the east of the state has blocked the storms, stopping them from moving quickly across land.

"Storm after storm seems to follow this path," Nash said, adding that there has been little break between the heavy systems -- keeping the ground saturated and prone to flooding.

Storms expected through weekend

[Shammu]

Drought may worsen in US Southwest, Plains: NOAA
Thu Mar 16, 2006 2:53 PM ET

 By Christopher Doering

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Drought that has shriveled crops and sparked fires in bone-dry forests will persist and could even worsen across the Southwest and central and southern Plains through at least June, U.S. government forecasters said Thursday.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said in its spring weather forecast that these regions, which have already seen thousands of acres go up in flames, should brace for a "significant" wildfire season in 2006 as conditions become more severe.

"We need to monitor this drought situation very closely," said David Johnson, director of NOAA's National Weather Service division.

The return of La Nina, an unusual cooling of Pacific Ocean surface temperatures which is the flip side of El Nino, could make the Atlantic tropical storm season especially dangerous.

Indeed, some forecasters have already warned that the number of storms may top the record set just last year.

La Nina developed during the winter and has contributed to the dryness plaguing much of the southern United States.

"It's showing no signs of declining...and the odds that it's going to last into late summer have gone up," said Ed O'Lenic, meteorologist with NOAA's Climate Prediction Center.

He said La Nina tends to enhance weather "favorable to the development of hurricanes and tropical storms in the Atlantic."

Last year was the busiest Atlantic hurricane season on record, with 27 named storms and 15 hurricanes. NOAA previously warned that the hurricane season -- which typically peaks between August 1 and late October -- could be active again in 2006.

SEVERE DROUGHT TO LINGER

Severe drought is blanketing the Southwest into the southern Plains and northward into Kansas. Heavy rains have eased dryness for now in Illinois, Iowa and extending south to Arkansas.

But weather forecasters said "ongoing drought concerns may linger."

A scarcity of rain since last fall has parched hard red winter wheat and dried up stock ponds and pastures in the southern Plains. A storm expected to drop up to 2.5 inches of rain this weekend in the Great Plains could be too late to save the winter wheat crop, government forecasters said.

"It kind of remains to be seen how much recovery there will be in wheat. Some of that wheat is getting to...frankly the point of no return" said Brad Rippey, a USDA meteorologist.

"But for just about everything else including pre-planting moisture for summer crops, pasture revival, wildfire control, the rain is nothing but good," he added.

Improved soil moisture will bode well for U.S. soft red winter areas while providing much-needed relief for corn and soybean crops later this spring.

Spring also will bring above normal temperatures for the Southwest eastward into the Southeast with cooler-than-normal conditions for the northern Plains and northern Rockies.

Below-normal precipitation is expected for much of the central and southern Plains, as well as the Southeast and Gulf Coast. Above normal precipitation is favored across the northern Plains and Great Lakes region.

Drought may worsen in US Southwest, Plains: NOAA

[Shammu]

Virtual overflight shows urban fault line
Geological data combined with aerial Google maps

Keay Davidson, Chronicle Science Writer

Friday, March 10, 2006

Bay Area residents can take a virtual helicopter tour of the region's deadliest geological time bomb, the Hayward Fault, just by pointing and clicking.

Unveiled Thursday by the U.S. Geological Survey, the online tour, which resembles an aerial overflight from an altitude of a few hundred feet, allows the viewer to see exactly how close a particular piece of property -- including his or her home, school, gym, favorite coffeehouse or commuting routes -- is to the fault.

The images, which merge USGS data with Google Earth's celebrated online library of aerial photographic maps, are of such high resolution that a user can spot individual homes and, in some cases, people. They include thousands of faceless football fans during an actual game at the UC Berkeley stadium, which the fault neatly bisects.

The tour covers some of the densest urban terrain in California, USGS scientists and state and municipal officials pointed out at a news conference in Menlo Park on Thursday. The Hayward Fault, which gashes through the East Bay, including Berkeley and Oakland, is the likeliest locale for the next big California quake, experts have forecast.

"The Hayward Fault is locked and loaded. It is ready to fire at any time," said Tom Brocher, co-coordinator of Northern California Earthquake Hazards for the USGS office in Menlo Park.

Experts have previously estimated a major East Bay quake could render 155,000 housing units uninhabitable, Jeanne Perkins of the Association of Bay Area Governments said at the news conference.

The online tour is available free to anyone who has access to the Web and to the necessary Google Earth software. It was developed by geoscientist Jim Lienkaemper of the USGS' Menlo Park office. Lienkaemper developed the virtual tour by merging Google Earth imagery with USGS records showing foot-by-foot changes in the position of the fault.

The Hayward Fault is a result of long-term stresses between the ever-moving North American and Pacific geological plates, which are divided by the more famous San Andreas Fault to the west. The Hayward snakes unevenly through the East Bay and occasionally breaks into pieces or disappears under landslides or urban development, as the virtual tour shows with spectacular clarity.

Other USGS scientists are now developing an online aerial tour of the San Andreas Fault, which they hope to unveil later this year.

Knowledge of one's closeness to the fault is valuable for property owners because their buildings are especially likely to suffer severe damage -- for example, cracked foundations or busted pipelines.

However, USGS experts warn anyone who uses the virtual tour: Don't relax if you discover that your home isn't right on the fault line. During an earthquake, the bulk of damage is caused by ground shaking, which can wreak horrific damage -- including busting pipelines, etc. -- many miles from the fault.

Rather, one real advantage of knowing your location in relation to the fault is that it allows family members to prepare for quake-triggered family separations, Perkins said.

Suppose, for example, that you check the online tour and discover that your home is in Oakland, on one side of the fault, while your daily workplace is south of the fault, in San Jose. Because many East Bay highways are perilously close to the fault, there's a good chance that after a quake, highway and road shutdowns will prevent you from returning from work to home. Also, the quake might disrupt or overload phone communications. These and other factors might prevent you from doing things you normally do every day -- say, picking up the kids from school, or ensuring that a pet at home gets a full bowl of water.

Thus, Perkins asked: Have you made emergency preparations for such a disaster? For example, by ensuring that a neighbor will pick up your kids from school, or feed your dog? Come the next quake, such "family reunification" crises, as Perkins calls them, could be no small concern.

Because of highway positions in the East Bay, "probably hundreds of thousands of people are commuting across this fault every day," she said.

Virtual overflight shows urban fault line

[Shammu]

Rain Falls on Charred Texas Panhandle

By ANGELA K. BROWN, Associated Press Writer 1 hour, 57 minutes ago

CANADIAN, Texas - Rain and sleet fell over much of the charred Texas Panhandle on Friday as crews put out hot spots from wildfires that have consumed 840,000 acres and killed at least 11 people since Sunday.

"The losses to the state have been staggering," Perry said after taking an aerial tour of the area Thursday. He called for immediate federal assistance.

The fires finally began to ease Thursday after forcing thousands of people to evacuate their homes and killing at least 10,000 cattle and horses. In Canadian, firefighters moved brush, dug trenches and lined up three dozen fire trucks, controlling the blaze to spare the 80-resident town of Lipscomb.

Departments came from as far away as Midland and the Dallas-Fort Worth area to help, bringing the fire chief to tears.

"You try to do everything you can to stop it, because there's so many people who've already lost so much all across the area," said Canadian Fire Chief Scott Brewster.

The National Weather Service said more rain could soak the drought-stricken region this weekend. But the Forest Service said two new small fires Friday morning in Carson County may have been sparked by lightning.

Texas Forest Service spokeswoman Jan Fulkerson said firefighters were putting out hot spots Friday in the three major Panhandle blazes, including the one near Canadian. A 350,000-acre fire near Interstate 40 was 80 percent contained, and the 40,000-acre fire near Childress was 95 percent contained, she said.

Perry said he spoke to President Bush on Thursday morning. But he said he was concerned, because the federal government made "very substantial promises" about reimbursements for help the state provided after Hurricane Katrina but "has not lived up to its word."

He planned to update a request for aid he first filed in December when wildfires first broke out. Statewide, fires have consumed almost 5 million acres and nearly 400 homes during the past three months, Perry said.

Perry said he expects state legislators in the 2007 session to work together to address more funding for the state's 1,800 volunteer fire departments, who "a lot of times have to go hand to mouth to get the equipment and get the training" they need.

Rain Falls on Charred Texas Panhandle

[Shammu]

Last update - 19:37 17/03/2006            
Four people hospitalized for possible avian flu
By Assaf Uni, Ran Reznick and Amiram Cohen, Haaretz Correspondents, Agencies and Haaretz Staff

Four people were taken to hospital Friday for treatment of possible bird flu. Three workers at two Negev kibbutzim where more than 1,000 turkeys were found dead Thursday were taken to Soroka Medical Center in Be'er Sheva for treatment. An individual who works at Moshav Sde Moshe, near the southern town of Kiryat, was taken to Barzilai Medical Center in Ashkelon on Friday after feeling ill.

The bird flu was suspected of spreading to both Moshav Sde Moshe and Kibbutz Nachshon, 25 kilometers from Jerusalem.

One of the patients, a Thai laborer who works at Kibbutz Ein Hashlosha, is being held in isolation. The other two, Bedouin from the Tel Arad region who work at Kibbutz Holit, said they had been feeling sick for the past few days but could not get off work. Hospital administrators said test results for the three kibbutz workers would be ready by Sunday.

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The possible human infections came as lab tests appeared to confirm suspicions that more than 1,000 turkeys in Ein Hashlosha, Holit and Nachshon were infected by the deadly H5N1 strain of the bird flu virus.

However, the World Health Organization does not view the test conducted on the turkeys, called PCR, as a definitive confirmation of the existence of the viral strain. Israel is in the process of conducting a second, stricter test, whose results are expected by Sunday.

Meanwhile, Israel on Friday halted all exports of unprocessed chicken and turkey meat to overseas destinations. The European Commission on Friday banned imports of live poultry, poultry meat, eggs and poultry products from Israel.

Israel decided not to wait for the results of the stricter test, however, and authorities began preparations Friday to kill tens of thousands of birds suspected of being infected by bird flu. The culling, which will be carried out by poisoning the drinking water of birds within a three-kilometer radius of the kibbutzim thought to be affected by the virus, will begin Sunday in all three kibbutzim.

In addition, health authorities decided to fly four million doses of bird flu vaccines into Israel from Holland. The government will consider vaccinating all birds in Israel in an attempt to prevent the virus from spreading.

The initial confirmation marks the first time that the deadly virus - which has killed at least 97 people worldwide and led to the slaughter of tens of millions of birds - has been detected in Israeli birds.

Government officials attempted to calm the public, saying that the chance of human infection was low and that cooked poultry does not transmit the virus.

"The risk that people will contract [the virus] is very very low," Health Ministry Director General Prof. Avi Yisraeli said Friday.

Ministry officials stressed that there is no reason for people to stop eating poultry, since the virus cannot be transmitted via cooked food. However, poultry farmers said that their main fear is that the public will ignore this reassurance. Indeed, merchants said demand for poultry products, especially turkey, was low Friday. Poultry farmers said a panic-driven consumer boycott of poultry could do their businesses even more harm than the destruction of their flocks.

After the turkey deaths were reported in the south Thursday, the veterinary authorities imposed a quarantine on Ein Hashlosha and Holit as well as two neighboring kibbutzim, Nirim and Kissufim. The quarantine was extended to 10 kilometers Friday.

The quarantine means that no birds can enter or leave the kibbutzim, and
no people will be allowed into the coops except those who must care for the birds that are still alive.

These essential personnel are required to don suitable protective gear - masks, goggles and protective clothing - before entering.

Virus could have come from Egypt or Gaza
The H5N1 virus was detected in neighboring Egypt last month, and Agriculture Minister Ze'ev Boim said that the death of the birds in southern Israel might indicate that the disease entered the country from Egypt.

Another possibility is that the disease entered from Gaza. The Israel Defense Forces therefore asked the Palestinian Authority to deliver blood samples of poultry from Gaza Strip henhouses, in order to determine whether they were the source of the virus.

The suspicion that the virus had reached Israel first emerged Thursday morning, when veterinarians at Kibbutz Ein Hashlosha discovered 400 dead birds in one of the coops. At about the same time, nearby Kibbutz Holit reported suspicious deaths among its turkeys. Initial laboratory tests determined that at least one of the birds had died of avian flu, but further testing is needed to determine whether it was the deadly H5N1 strain.

Further deaths were reported at both coops later in the day, and the death toll eventually climbed to more than 1,000.

"They're dropping like flies. I've never seen anything like it," said Dr. Yariv Agur, an expert on avian diseases who visited the Holit coops on Thursday.

Veterinary authorities said Friday that the virus was suspected of having spread to Kibbutz Nachshon as well.

Agur said that anyone who was in contact with the affected birds ought to be given immediate preventive treatment. At Ein Hashlosha, he added, that could include more than just farmers and veterinarians, since there, "the coops are inside the kibbutz, so the virus surely exists in every nook and cranny."

However, the virus can only be caught via close contact with infected birds. As a result, though the Health Ministry also advised anyone who has been in contact with the birds on either kibbutz to contact the local health authority, it does not plan to issue any advisories to the general public or take any special steps that would affect the general public.

Four people hospitalized for possible avian flu

[Shammu]

Death Toll in Hawaii Dam Break Rises to 3

By JAYMES SONG, Associated Press Writer 1 hour, 57 minutes ago

HONOLULU - Search-and-rescue teams found a third body on the island of Kauai Friday, three days after a privately owned dam burst and released a violent torrent of tree-snapping water and debris.

Authorities said a woman's body was recovered in a stream bed. The body had not yet been identified, but the only woman who remained missing after the disaster was 24-year-old Aurora Fehring.

Though state and county teams planned to continue a land search, the Coast Guard said it was suspending an aerial and ocean search.

"We have exhausted our assets and all our available resources in this search," said Coast Guard spokesman Petty Officer Michael De Nyse. "Our hearts and prayers go out to the families of those who lost a loved one. It was hard to suspend the case. We don't like to do it."

Heavy rains overflowed reservoirs, flooded roads and farms, knocked out power and forced evacuations in the aftermath of Tuesday's dam break on Kauai. The state asked the federal government on Friday to declare Kauai and parts of Oahu a disaster, and asked the Federal Emergency Management Agency for assistance.

"In my professional opinion, it is beyond the state's capability and we need help," said Ed Teixeira, state vice director of civil defense. "Above all, there's been an impact on people and that impact is continuous."

The dead include 22-year-old Christina McNeese, who was pregnant and was to be married Saturday, and Alan Dingwall, 30. Those who had been searching for the missing have been hampered by the heavy mud, piles of broken trees, rain and the threat of another reservoir breaking.

"It is our hope that maybe there's somebody down there that we can still find alive," Teixeira said.

Also Friday, Attorney General Mark Bennett subpoenaed construction and maintenance records from the two owners of the Kaloko Reservoir as part of an investigation to determine how and why the dam failed.

The dam was on the same property that co-owner Jimmy Pflueger cleared without government approval, leading to a 2001 mudslide and $12 million in penalties and required payments. Officials from the Environmental Protection Agency have said they do not believe the work contributed to the dam break. Gov. Linda Lingle said the subpoena did not mean that authorities were seeking to find criminal violations.

"He has a greater ability to get information quicker than anyone else does because of subpoena powers," Lingle said. She added: "We are not presuming that there was anything criminal at all."

Death Toll in Hawaii Dam Break Rises to 3

[Shammu]

20:31 18/03/2006            
Authorities start culling infected birds in south
By Assaf Uni, Ran Reznick and Amiram Cohen, Haaretz Correspondents, Agencies and Haaretz Staff

The Agriculture Ministry started Saturday culling hundreds of thousands of birds infected with bird flu or in danger of being infected with the deadly virus in three kibbutzim and a moshav in the south of the country.

Agriculture ministry officials confirmed for the first time Satruday night that the poultry had in fact died as a result of the bird flu. The specimens checked tested affirmative for the H5N1 strain of the disease.

The form of testing, however, is not accepted as a conclusive form of proof by the World Health Organization and further tests are still being carried out.

According to the head of the poultry department at the Agriculture Ministry, Dr. Shimon Pokomolsky, the culling of poultry at Kibbutz Ein Hashlosha and Kibbutz Nachshon will be completed Saturday, and will begin later in the day at Moshav Sdeh Moshe and Kibbutz Nahshon.

Meanwhile in Egypt, Initial tests have shown that a woman who died this week had bird flu, making her likely the first human death from the disease that country, officials said.

A U.S. Navy lab in Cairo found that the woman, who died on Friday, had the H5N1 virus, a lab spokesman Andrew Stegall said. The World Health Organization will conduct further tests to give final confirmation, said Hassan el-Bushra, a WHO official in Cairo.

A number of people who came in contact with the woman are also being tested, el-Bushra, who is the WHO regional adviser for emerging diseases, told The Associated Press. He would not say how many people were being tested or whether they had shown any symptoms of bird flu.

In Israel steps were taken by the Agriculture Ministry to stamp out the flu. Culling was schedueled to begin on Sunday, but apparently the operation has been pushed forward.

The culling of chickens, turkeys, geese and ducks is to be carried out by poisoning the drinking water of birds within a three-kilometer radius of the communities thought to be affected by the virus. At least 12,000 birds are thought to have been directly killed by the virus in the four communities.

According to the director of the veterinarian services at the Agriculture Ministry, Dr. Moshe Haimovitch, at least 200,000 turkeys will be culled, most of them healthy birds that were close to the infected hen-houses.

In addition, health authorities decided to fly four million doses of bird flu vaccines into Israel from The Netherlands. The government will consider vaccinating all birds in Israel in an attempt to prevent the virus from spreading.

The Cabinet is to discuss Sunday the implications of the bird flu outbreak, compensation for farmers and prevention of the spread of the disease. The director generals of the Health, Agriculture, Justice and Environment Ministries are expected to attend the meeting.

Allegations of improper handling of infected birds
Veterinarians and livestock farmers criticized the delayed and improper manner of bird culling in southern Israel over the weekend.

Photos from Kibbutz Holit showing cattle herons, known transmitters of the bird flu, roaming in piles of dead birds suspected of having contracted the disease, raise the fear of the flu spreading.

"I have received numerous calls from poultry growers who condemn the delay in culling, and the fact that it has not been carried out according to procedures," Dr. Yariv Agur, an expert on avian disease, told Haaretz on Saturday.

"The government is nowhere to be found. It is like playing with matchsticks next to a barrel of gunpowder. They [the government] are having logistical difficulties and only the local councils are handling the situation," said a farmer from the western Negev.

Miki Firk, the Agriculture Ministry's representative in charge of the affected areas, stated that, "the worrisome photos were taken before we arrived at the site, after which the carcasses were promptly disposed of."

The Agriculture Ministry's procedures dictate that the birds must be buried in a hole, the bottom of which is covered by thick plastic tarp. The birds must be covered with an additional tarp and two meters of earth. The photos from Holit which show wild birds roaming among the carcasses of possibly infected birds portray a different story.

Four people hospitalized found not to have avian flu
Four people who were taken to hospital Friday for treatment of possible bird flu were found not to be infected with the deadly viral strain, the Health Ministry told Israel Radio on Saturday morning.

Hospital administrators earlier said test results for three of the men, workers for two Negev kibbutzim where more than 1,000 turkeys were found dead, would be ready by Sunday.

Three of the men were taken to Soroka Medical Center in Be'er Sheva for precautionary treatment. A fourth individual who works at Moshav Sde Moshe near Kiryat Gat was taken to Barzilai Medical Center in Ashkelon on Friday afternoon after feeling ill.

The bird flu was suspected of spreading to both Moshav Sde Moshe and Kibbutz Nachshon, 25 kilometers from Jerusalem.

One of the patients, a Thai laborer who works at Kibbutz Ein Hashlosha, is being held in isolation. The other two, Bedouin from the Tel Arad region who work at Kibbutz Holit, said they had been feeling sick for the past few days but could not get off work.

The possible human infections came as lab tests appeared to confirm suspicions that more than 1,000 turkeys in Ein Hashlosha, Holit and Nachshon were infected by the deadly H5N1 strain of the bird flu virus.

However, the World Health Organization does not view the test conducted on the turkeys, called PCR, as a definitive confirmation of the existence of the viral strain. Israel is in the process of conducting a second, stricter test, whose results are expected by Sunday.

EU bans poultry imports from Israel
Meanwhile, Israel on Friday halted all exports of unprocessed chicken and turkey meat to overseas destinations. The European Commission on Friday banned imports of live poultry, poultry meat, eggs and poultry products from Israel.

The initial confirmation marks the first time that the deadly virus - which has killed at least 97 people worldwide and led to the slaughter of tens of millions of birds - has been detected in Israeli birds.

Government officials attempted to calm the public, saying that the chance of human infection was low and that cooked poultry does not transmit the virus.

"The risk that people will contract [the virus] is very very low," Health Ministry Director General Prof. Avi Yisraeli said Friday.

Ministry officials stressed that there is no reason for people to stop eating poultry, since the virus cannot be transmitted via cooked food. However, poultry farmers said that their main fear is that the public will ignore this reassurance. Indeed, merchants said demand for poultry products, especially turkey, was low Friday. Poultry farmers said a panic-driven consumer boycott of poultry could do their businesses even more harm than the destruction of their flocks.

After the turkey deaths were reported in the south Thursday, the veterinary authorities imposed a quarantine on Ein Hashlosha and Holit as well as two neighboring kibbutzim, Nirim and Kissufim. The quarantine was extended to 10 kilometers Friday.

The quarantine means that no birds can enter or leave the kibbutzim, and no people will be allowed into the coops except those who must care for the birds that are still alive.

These essential personnel are required to don suitable protective gear - masks, goggles and protective clothing - before entering.

Virus could have come from Egypt or Gaza
The H5N1 virus was detected in neighboring Egypt last month, and Agriculture Minister Ze'ev Boim said that the death of the birds in southern Israel might indicate that the disease entered the country from Egypt.

Another possibility is that the disease entered from Gaza. The Israel Defense Forces therefore asked the Palestinian Authority to deliver blood samples of poultry from Gaza Strip henhouses, in order to determine whether they were the source of the virus.

The suspicion that the virus had reached Israel first emerged Thursday morning, when veterinarians at Kibbutz Ein Hashlosha discovered 400 dead birds in one of the coops. At about the same time, nearby Kibbutz Holit reported suspicious deaths among its turkeys. Initial laboratory tests determined that at least one of the birds had died of avian flu, but further testing is needed to determine whether it was the deadly H5N1 strain.

Further deaths were reported at both coops later in the day, and the death toll eventually climbed to more than 1,000.

"They're dropping like flies. I've never seen anything like it," said Dr. Yariv Agur, an expert on avian diseases who visited the Holit coops on Thursday.

Agur said that anyone who was in contact with the affected birds ought to be given immediate preventive treatment. At Ein Hashlosha, he added, that could include more than just farmers and veterinarians, since there, "the coops are inside the kibbutz, so the virus surely exists in every nook and cranny."

However, the virus can only be caught via close contact with infected birds. As a result, though the Health Ministry also advised anyone who has been in contact with the birds on either kibbutz to contact the local health authority, it does not plan to issue any advisories to the general public or take any special steps that would affect the general public.

Authorities start culling infected birds in south

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 Worker Was on Hot Spot When Volcano Blew
Staff and agencies
18 March, 2006


By RAY LILLEY, 25 minutes ago

WELLINGTON, New Zealand - A young conservation worker who was checking a volcano‘s crater lake when it unexpectedly burst to life, spewing mounds of ash and soot, most likely died in the eruption in the remote nature reserve, a conservation official said Saturday.

A rescue team was expected to set sail from New Zealand on Sunday to inspect the remote island and assess prospects for recovering the missing worker, who was part of a small team monitoring the nature reserve. By opting for a three-day sea trip, rather than flying, officials virtually ruled out finding the worker alive.

Carter said the rescuer estimated the worker, who left an hour before the eruption for the crater lake for a routine check of the water temperature, had only a "1 to 2 percent chance" of surviving.

"They were very traumatized as one would expect. There has been only the six of them on the island since last October," Carter said. "They are like family members."

"They are clearly upset. The guy is a good friend and they‘re a fairly close group," senior Constable Barry Shepherd, a search and rescue expert, told reporters. The conservation workers did not immediately speak to the media.

John Funnel, the helicopter pilot who flew the rescue mission, said the eruption ripped up trees and dumped ash over half the 72-acre island. He said the dense clouds of ash would have brought the helicopter down if he had flown into them.

A group of police, conservation officials and one vulcanologist was likely to set sail Sunday, but will only land if they decide it is safe based on visual checks and updates on seismic activity, said Rolien Elliot, the Conservation Department‘s area manager.

Vulcanologist Michael Rosenberg said the eruption was of a "moderate size" and looked similar to the one in 1964.

On Saturday, there were only clusters of small earthquakes and no obvious volcanic activity on the partly bush-covered island, GNS Science reported.

The chain to which it belongs — New Zealand‘s Kermadec Islands — was formed by a string of volcanoes that rose up to 26,000 feet from the ocean floor.

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More on the missing "volcano man"


Father's last words to missing volcano man: Don't be a hero

Missing DoC worker Mark Kearney's family and colleagues describe a huge man with a big heart and big talent, to Irene Chapple and Emily Watt.

The last thing missing DoC worker Mark Kearney's father Ray told him before he left for Raoul Island was "don't be a hero".

The man referred to by colleagues as "Markgyver" - in reference to the television character MacGyver who could fix any problem - just grinned and said "yeah, OK".

Now the 33-year-old is missing, presumed dead, after a volcanic eruption on the island, 1000km north-east of Auckland, on Friday.

Kearney's five colleagues, three men and two women, were airlifted to safety on Friday night after the volcano erupted about 8.30am.

He had gone to the Green Lake - a crater lake - to check its temperature, leaving at 7.30am and arriving at the lake at virtually the time the volcano erupted.

One of the survivors was Wellingtonian Melanie Nelson, who had worked at the same Karori Wildlife Sactuary as Kearney.

Her mother, Cheryl Nelson, said the five survivors were "shattered" at the loss of their friend. The team had been close. The other survivors were team leader Jim Livingstone and rangers Morgan Cox, Evan Ward and Lynda McGrory-Ward.

Ray Kearney said his son had not been confirmed dead, but he knew there was little chance he had survived.

Kearney dabbled in different careers - architecture, forest and park management - but always wanted to work outside.

Friends yesterday paid tribute to a man remembered for his love of the outdoors and conservation.

"Conservation was his love, his passion," said wildlife photographer John Shorland. "He was a huge guy. He had these huge hands and handled these tiny fragile birds. I'm remembering Mark's passion, strength and humour."

Before his mission to Raoul, Kearney worked in Te Anau as a hut warden, working on huts, tracks and structures.

"He had a lot of skills and could have probably done almost anything he wanted to, but I think he liked the work and he loved the environment," said Te Anau area manager Reg Kemper.

Before leaving for Raoul, Kearney called in to see his former colleagues at Wellington's Karori Wildlife Sanctuary, where he had been conservation officer.

Sanctuary conservation manager Raewyn Empson, who has been to Raoul, said he was excited about the trip.

"I guess for a lot of us, to go to Raoul's a bit of a dream. It's a beautiful place, the kind of place I'd give my eye teeth to go back to."

Empson said it was a steep walk to the crater, and if the route became blocked, it would be difficult to get out.

"Mark was extremely strong, extremely resourceful, very fit and fast. If anyone had a chance to get away, he would have."

Police senior constable Barry Shepherd, who went on Friday's evacuation mission, said there was little chance of anyone surviving if they were within the crater at the time of the eruption.

The eruption devastated 5ha around the Green Lake, flattening trees and spewing boulders, mud and ash across the island.

A 40-minute search on Friday failed to find any sign of Kearney. He had lived lived with his five colleagues on Raoul since October, carrying out conservancy work, gathering weather information, and monitoring volcanic activity for Geological and Nuclear Sciences.

Ray Kearney said that as a 15-year-old, his son had convinced him to let him go solo on a tramp around the Tararua ranges, through Masterton and back down to Otaki. The youngster took a mountain radio and called home every night.

"I took a chance letting him go," he said. "But he had an incredible sense of direction... he always knew which way to go."

At 16, he went with mountaineers Rob Hall and Gary Ball to Base Camp on Mt Everest, where he helped clear rubbish.

The room where Kearney stayed with his father in Wellington has a wardrobe full of dog-eared maps. Kearney had visited Australia, but most of his adventures had been in New Zealand.

He planned to save all his wages while on Raoul, and had talked about travelling to Europe.