Prophecy, Drought, Earthquakes, Famine, Pestilence, War, and Strange Weather.

[Shammu]

New bird flu cases found in 5 nations
 3/17/2006 7:57 AM

KABUL (AFP) — At least five countries confirmed or warned of their first outbreaks of the deadly strain of bird flu Thursday, while Azerbaijan tested a dead dog to see if the virulent variant had jumped to yet another species and Cambodia announced the discovery of the virus in dead ducks.

The highly pathogenic H5N1 strain has killed about 100 people in seven countries since 2003. Scientists fear a global pandemic if the virus mutates and becomes easily transmissible between humans.

Denmark detected its first case of this deadly variant in a wild buzzard found dead on the island of Zealand, veterinary authorities said. It awaits official confirmation from European Union reference laboratory in Weybdridge, England.Danish veterinary authorities announced a "protection and security zone" on the island, south of Copenhagen.

The Danish discovery comes a day after the EU's reference laboratory confirmed Sweden's first cases of the H5N1 strain, in two wild ducks found dead last month.The two tufted ducks were found dead in Oskarshamn, on Sweden's southeastern coast, at the end of February.

Elsewhere in Europe, farmers in the Netherlands received official clearance to start vaccinating poultry against bird flu until the end of June, the agriculture ministry said, following a similar program in France.Unlike France, the Netherlands has not yet detected any cases of bird flu.

Israel

The Israeli agriculture ministry also said it feared the first outbreak of the flu had been discovered in poultry found dead in the south of the country. About 11,000 turkeys have died in what Israeli officials suspect is the country's first outbreak of the dangerous H5N1 strain of bird flu, and officials will decide shortly whether to destroy tens of thousands of other birds.

After preliminary tests, Health Minister Yaakov Edri told Army Radio there was a "very high chance that this is avian flu."

"We are already pretty sure it is avian flu, but of course, there are more tests to be done," Edri said.

An Agriculture Ministry spokeswoman, Dafna Yarisca, told The Associated Press it could take anywhere from hours to days until final results were in.

The suspected outbreak in Israel was centered on the Negev Desert farming community of Ein Hashlosha and the nearby community of Holit, where thousands of turkeys died.

Officials imposed a quarantine in a radius of four miles around the area, and were prepared to destroy flocks in a radius of two miles if suspicions were confirmed, Edri said.

Central Asia

The United Nations and the Afghan government confirmed the deadly strain in samples from Kabul and the eastern city of Jalalabad, the country's first outbreaks. Afghanistan ordered the immediate slaughter of all birds in affected areas.

Pakistan was also taking "protective measures" against the strain as it awaited confirmation from the EU laboratory on an outbreak at two chicken farms on the Afghan border; Pakistan officials said the disease was highly likely to be H5N1.

Meanwhile, Azerbaijan was testing for bird flu in the bodies of three women found dead earlier this week and a dog found Thursday on the outskirts of the capital Baku.The health ministry ordered the eradication of all domestic birds within a 1.9-mile radius of any outbreak of avian influenza, but the order was widely ignored.

Southeast Asia

Cambodia said Friday it had found H5N1 in three ducks during routine checks, but that there were no new cases in humans."We have found the virus in three ducks in Choeung Prey district, Kampong Cham province," Agriculture Minister Chan Sarun told AFP.

About 200 ducks were culled in Cambodia's eastern province to prevent the virus from spreading, the surrounding district was disinfected and poultry transportation into the area has been banned, he said.

At least four people have died in Cambodia from bird flu, but Ly Sovann, the head of the health ministry's infectious disease department, said there were no human cases suspected in the Kampong Cham outbreak.

Officials from the U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization said laboratory tests had confirmed an H5N1 outbreak reported by Burma three days ago in the central town of Mandalay.Burma, also known as Myanmar, saw its ruling military junta lift a news blackout on bird flu and carry out preventive measures against the H5N1 virus. Health authorities have slaughtered 12,500 chickens and quarantined 43 farms near Mandalay.

The state-run New Light of Myanmar daily printed detailed information about efforts to control the outbreak and a guide for people to avoid catching the virus. The regime said so far no human cases have been detected.

Malaysia on Thursday announced a new outbreak of the H5N1 strain in an eco-park and a village in the northern state of Perak. Agriculture Minister Muhyiddin Yassin urged the public to stay calm and cooperate with officials to contain the outbreak.

Taking steps

Countries in three continents rolled out urgent protective measures against H5N1.India accelerated a mass slaughter following a second outbreak of avian flu. More than 17,000 chickens have been culled in the western state of Maharashtra.

Nigeria said it was stockpiling flu drugs and blood-testing people in areas at risk from the virus. It became the first African country to detect it last month, followed by its neighbours Niger and Cameroon, along with Egypt.Backed by the World Health Organisation (WHO), Nigeria also deployed field teams and two laboratories to test for the deadly variant.

Cameroon said the WHO had also offered it assistance, providing protective equipment and anti-flu serum.

The Swiss pharmaceutical giant Roche announced it was raising annual production of the Tamiflu anti-flu drug — considered the first line of defence against a potential pandemic — by one third to about 400 million doses.

The Philippines-based Asian Development Bank earmarked $38 million for drugs and services to fight the disease in Asia, and a further 14.5 million dollars of emergency funds for governments in the region to contain outbreaks.

New bird flu cases found in 5 nations

[Shammu]

Mount Vesuvius may be getting ready to blow, but Italians living on the mountain are oddly complacent.
By Barbie Nadeau
Newsweek
Updated: 2:05 p.m. ET March 16, 2006

March 16, 2006 - While Giuseppe D'Emilio is drawing down cappuccinos at the Ercolaneo coffee bar, Mount Vesuvius may be on the verge of erupting beneath his feet. D'Emilio, though, doesn't look like a man who is worried. He has no plans to leave the mountain, despite the Italian government's offer of aid. "You can't live your life like that," he says. "What if I leave and the volcano never erupts? Think of all I would have lost."

But what if it does erupt? In a recent issue of the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, geologists put the chance of an eruption by the end of this calendar year at a whopping one in two. What does D'Emilio think about that?

"I'll worry about that when I have to," he says. "Want another cappuccino?"

This penchant for taking difficult news in stride, which seems to be a national trait, is giving geologists and the Italian authorities agita. Surely, Italians are particularly comfortable living with risk. This, after all, is a society that has yet to embrace such proven safety precautions as seatbelts, motorino helmets and sunscreen. It's not that D'Emilio and other locals don't believe in the power of the volcano. They've been hearing for years that the volcano is not dormant, just asleep, and each update of the scientific odds of eruption brings a round of rolled eyes and shrugged shoulders. In 2002, when scientists at the Vesuvius Observatory warned that the mountain was starting a new cycle of eruptive activity, few people even took notice. Even so, locals seem content to put their faith in the ability of the local and national government to orchestrate an evacuation, should the mountain finally decide to erupt for real. The trouble is, the government is hopelessly behind in planning for an evacuation, and it admits to having no plans to deal with a worst-case scenario—an eruption with little seismic warning.

As a practical matter, it's difficult to see how residents would be able to get off the mountain in an emergency. Early on Sunday morning, after a snowfall at the top of Vesuvius, gusty winds kicked up a blinding ground blizzard in the villages and roads near the peak. Police had to evacuate 50 or so cars from the top of the mountain, but the operation was a farce. The civil authorities slid around on foot like Keystone cops trying to stop the Alfa Romeos and Fiats on ice with a few handheld lollipop stop signs.

Within minutes, the whole scene turned into an automotive curling match. Getting the drivers who were speeding up the mountain to turn their cars around and head back down the two-lane hairpin road in an orderly fashion proved even more ludicrous (and entertaining). Finally, after more than an hour of truly creative mountain-road maneuvers in the slushy snow, someone at the bottom got word and put up a roadblock to stop the train of locals from coming up to see the snow. What would have happened, though, if this had been not snow but burning ash or hot lava?

According to the civil authorities in Naples, who are fed real-time data from the volcanologists at the Vesuvius Observatory, a safe distance down the mountain from the crater, they hope to have as much as a 27-day advance warning in order to evacuate the 600,000 residents who live in the so-called "red zone" within a 2.7 mile radius of Vesuvius's cone. If given about a month to plan, they say they can get all these residents to safety within seven days.

There's no guarantee that geologists will be able to predict an eruption seven days out. Michael F. Sheridan, a volcanologist at the University of Buffalo in New York and a coauthor of the study, warned the civil authorities in Naples last week that recent disasters like Hurricane Katrina in the United States should be a lesson to those planning a similar style advanced-warning evacuation. He told the BBC, "There have been notable cases recently where disaster planners have not taken into account the worst-case scenario and this eruption would certainly be one of those."

Mount Vesuvius may be getting ready to blow, but Italians living on the mountain are oddly complacent.

[Shammu]

Ancient quake raises risk for modern Naples
Scientists urge threat from Mount Vesuvius be included in hazard planning

Long before Mount Vesuvius buried Pompeii in rock and ash, the volcano erupted in an even more powerful explosion that affected the area occupied by present-day Naples. It left the region a desert wasteland for centuries afterwards, a new study reports.

The so-called Avellino eruption occurred about 3,780 years ago during the Bronze Age and was at least twice as powerful as the one that smothered Pompeii and the nearby town of Herculaneum in A.D. 79.

If a similar-sized eruption occurred today, it would destroy the entire Italian port city of Naples and displace millions of people, experts say.

The findings are detailed in Tuesday's issue of the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

Far flung destruction
Scientists have known about the Avellino eruption since the 1980s but didn't know that its destructive influences extended so far.

"We didn't know that the city of Naples would be so threatened," said study leader Michael Sheridan of the University of Buffalo in New York. "We never had evidence for a blast extending into the Neapolitan area and beyond it."

Based on recent geological and archaeological evidence, scientists now think that the Avellino eruption rained more than 3 feet (a meter) of hot ash and pumice — a light, spongelike rock that forms when ejected magma solidifies in air — as far as 9 miles (14 kilometers) away. Naples is located about 6 miles (10 kilometers) from Vesuvius.

Scientists think that the Avellino eruption shot a column of superheated rock and dust more than 20 miles (32 kilometers) high, darkening skies for miles around. In areas close to the volcano, scorched rocks rained down at more than 150 mph (250 kilometers per hour).

Driven by westerly winds, the ejected debris blanketed thousands of square miles northeast of the volcano, creating a bleak landscape of uninhabitable desert that lasted for more than 200 years.

In the prehistoric village of Nola 9 miles away, archaeologists discovered skeletons of dogs and nine pregnant goats. A little east of the village, they uncovered the skeletons of a man and a woman buried beneath more than 3 feet (a meter) of debris; the pair probably died of asphyxiation as they tried to escape.

Scientists think most people survived the eruption, however. Thousands of human and animal footprints have been found around Vesuvius, embedded in wet volcanic ash and leading away from the volcano. Based on estimates of the sustainability of the land during the time, scientists estimate that more than 10,000 people were living in the region when the volcano erupted.

Naples not prepared
Scientists think that Vesuvius formed 25,000 years ago and that it experiences one major eruption every 2,000 years or so. There are dozens of smaller eruptions between the major events, however. About 30 minor eruptions are thought to have occurred since the A.D. 79 catastrophe that destroyed Pompeii. The last eruption was in 1944.

Sheridan estimates that there is more than a 50 percent chance of an eruption occurring within the next year.

"With each year that goes by, the statistical probability increases," he said.

And while Naples has emergency plans to deal with smaller eruptions, Sheridan doesn't think it's prepared for a major one. He said an eruption the size of Avellino today would destroy Naples  and displace more than 3 million people.

"This eruption is much larger than the ones that are currently anticipated at Vesuvius," Sheridan said. "What would you do with the evacuation of 3 million people? They're not coming back. There won't be anything to come back to."

Ancient quake raises risk for modern Naples

[Shammu]

Alaska volcano's Web site becomes Internet hot spot

By Yereth Rosen Sat Mar 18, 12:05 PM ET

ANCHORAGE, Alaska (Reuters) - Want to peer into the steaming summit of an erupting volcano without risking death?

Anyone with an Internet connection and a computer can do just that, thanks to about 30 cameras and other recording devices set up on Alaska's Augustine Volcano that are streaming information to a Web site hosted by the Alaska Volcano Observatory, a joint federal-state office.

The site http://www.avo.alaska.edu/activity/Augustine.php has received over 253 million hits since the start of the year, becoming a popular destination for everyone from scientists to amateur volcano buffs who want to keep tabs on the restless 4,134-foot (1,260-meter) volcano.

"The Web has really revolutionized information dissemination and consequently the level of interest and knowledge of the public," said Shan de Silva, a volcanologist and professor at the University of North Dakota.

Augustine Volcano, on an uninhabited island about 175 miles

southwest of Anchorage, roared to life on January 11 with an explosion that shot ash miles into the air. It sits under a major air travel route between Asia and North America.

The volcano has remained active since then with a series of ash-producing explosions but has settled into a period of less-dramatic lava burbling, dome building and occasional small ash puffs.

For scientists, Augustine provides a near-perfect combination of factors.

It is close to population centers, but not so close that it poses any serious risks. Its flanks and summit are dotted with more monitoring instruments than perhaps any U.S. volcano except Mt. St. Helens in Washington and Mauna Loa in Hawaii.

"It's a new way of monitoring volcanoes now, but this is going to be kind of the standard way of doing it," said Chris Waythomas, a U.S. Geological Survey geologist who works at the Alaska Volcano Observatory.

CHOCK FULL OF INFORMATION

The plethora of seismic information flowing out of the volcano provided scientists with plenty of warning about what was going to happen well before the initial January eruption.

"It happened a little sooner than we thought, but we weren't surprised that it happened," said Waythomas.

There are real-time photographic images, seismic graphs, data from thermal sensors, satellite images and photographs taken by scientists who fly over the peak at least a couple times a week and occasionally land on it -- all displayed on the observatory's Web page.

The most popular features on the site are images from a Web camera perched on the volcano's east side and other photographs, said observatory officials.

The only nagging problems have been periodic buildups of ice and snow on the camera's lens and bad weather that sometimes limits overflights.

For scientists, the detailed images provide a bounty of information about this extended eruptive phase to help study the nature of the magma rising out of Augustine and the incremental changes to the volcano's summit dome.

Among the site's fans are middle school students in Homer, a coastal town across the inlet from Augustine.

Students know the volcano well from their western skyline, yet they have been glued to the computer, said Suzanne Haines, a Homer Middle School geography and history teacher who has incorporated Augustine information into her lessons.

"It's such an amazing resource because the science is fairly easy to understand on the Web site," said Haines, noting that students are so interested due to the volcano's proximity. "It's not something that's far away."

Alaska volcano's Web site becomes Internet hot spot

My note; I've been using this site for the past year, as well.

[Shammu]

Egyptian woman dies of bird flu

By Mohammed Abbas Sat Mar 18, 7:45 AM ET

CAIRO (Reuters) - A 30-year-old Egyptian woman has died of bird flu, the country's first human victim of the virus, Egypt's health ministry said on Saturday.

It said the woman from Qaloubiyah province, about 40 kms (25 miles) north of Cairo, where the highly pathogenic H5N1 strain has been detected in poultry, was taken ill on Wednesday.

"They (doctors) took samples for analysis at the ministry of health laboratories ... They confirmed she was infected with bird flu. She died on Friday morning," a health ministry statement said, adding the woman had been given Tamiflu, a drug used to treat suspected cases of bird flu.

Israel said on Saturday that four poultry workers suspected of having bird flu had tested negative for the virus, after the country detected its first cases of H5N1 in birds on Friday.

Bird flu has spread across Europe, Africa and parts of Asia and killed at least 98 people worldwide since 2003.

Although hard to catch, people can contract bird flu after coming into contact with infected birds. Scientists fear the virus could mutate into a form that could pass easily between humans, triggering a pandemic in which millions could die.

The World Health Organization (WHO) confirmed that Egypt had reported its first human case of bird flu.

Dr Hassan al-Bushra, WHO's regional adviser for communicable diseases surveillance, said the H5N1 bird flu virus had been found in a blood sample taken from the woman, and that other samples were being tested for further confirmation.

Egypt reported its first cases of bird flu in poultry flocks last month. Media and state reports say H5N1 has now been detected in at least 17 of Egypt's 26 governorates and the city of Luxor.

Egyptian farmers say the poultry market -- worth about 17 billion Egyptian pounds ($3 billion dollars) and supporting up to 3 million people -- has been devastated.

TESTS NEGATIVE

The Israeli Health Ministry said four people suspected of having bird flu had tested negative for the virus.

Two Israeli farms were confirmed on Friday to have infected poultry after thousands of turkeys and chickens died. Tests are being carried out on another two farms where H5N1 is suspected.

Israeli officials said poultry in the infected areas and their surroundings would be culled and the carcasses buried in underground pits.

In a rare act of cooperation, Israel was also testing dead fowl found in the West Bank and Gaza on behalf of the Palestinian Authority to try to control the spread of the virus.

Serbia on Friday said three children and a teenager from a bird flu affected area were in hospital after developing fever and flu-like symptoms.

Three women who died in Azerbaijan are also thought to be bird flu victims, but the WHO is awaiting the results of further tests before confirming the cause of death.

Bird flu has shaken poultry markets around the world as consumers have lost their appetites for chicken, with some countries reporting a drop in sales of up to 70 percent.

The EU banned poultry imports from Israel after the discovery of H5N1 there, the EU's executive Commission said.

Egyptian woman dies of bird flu

[Shammu]

Residents flee as cyclone heads for Australian coast
Mar 19 7:42 AM US/Eastern
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Thousands of residents fled their homes as the worst cyclone to threaten Australia's Queensland state for decades bore down on the coast.

Tropical Cyclone Larry was expected to hit the north-eastern state early Monday with wind gusts of up to 280 kilometres (175 mph) an hour and storm surges of up to two metres (6.6 feet), the weather bureau said.

Mandatory evacuations were enforced in several coastal areas including holiday resorts in the path of the cyclone, the national AAP news agency reported.

Queensland Premier Peter Beattie declared a disaster situation, giving authorities the legal power to forcibly remove any reluctant evacuees as the 80 km-wide stormfront headed for land.

Major airlines cancelled all flights into the city of Cairns. Shelters for evacuees were set up in inland towns.

"I want people to understand that the advice we're given is that it is very serious -- category four. The weather bureau says we haven't have one of these for decades," Beattie told national ABC radio.

The weather bureau said the cyclone, pressing in from the Coral Sea east of Townsville, could worsen to Category Five -- the highest -- by the time it made landfall.

The bureau describes a Category Five cyclone as "extremely dangerous with widespread destruction". It said Larry posed a very serious threat to life and property.

The cyclone's "very destructive core" is expected to cross the coast between Innisfail and Mission Beach between 7 am and 9 am on Monday.

Destructive winds were expected to start battering the coast between Ingham and Port Douglas earlier in the morning, with gales already being experienced along the exposed coast on Sunday evening.

Petrol stations recorded a big rise in business with residents filling up their tanks to drive south or inland, while supermarkets were inundated by people stocking up on supplies.

Cardwell Service Station owner Rachael King said business had been "non-stop" with people "getting into their cars and driving wherever they can get to".

"The population is about 13,000 ... I reckon half of them are on their way out," King said.

Beattie said the authorities were worried about hospitals and other buildings in the cyclone's path.

But Cairns resident Warwick Hatcher told ABC radio he was staying put. "Machams Beach is famous for its cyclone parties so I'm happy to stay," he said.

Disaster coordination centres were activated in Cairns and Townsville while the state government sent response teams from Brisbane in preparation for destruction caused by gale-force winds, torrential rain and flooding.

On Christmas Day 1974, category four Cyclone Tracy hit the northern Australian city of Darwin, killing 49 people and another 16 at sea. Some 70 percent of Darwins homes were destroyed or severely damaged.

Residents flee as cyclone heads for Australian coast

[Shammu]

Moderate earthquake shakes northern Pakistan
Sun Mar 19, 2006 12:31 AM ET164

ISLAMABAD (Reuters) - A moderate earthquake on Sunday shook parts of northern Pakistan devastated by a catastrophic tremor last October, but there were no immediate reports of damage or casualties.

The 5.0 magnitude quake had its epicenter in Hazara division, about 200 km (125 miles) northeast of the Pakistani city of Peshawar, Pakistan's Meteorological Office said.

The quake was felt in Balakot, a town flattened by the October 8 earthquake, as well as in the capital Islamabad and several other northern cities and towns.

Sunday's jolt was an aftershock of the catastrophic 7.6 magnitude earthquake that killed more than 73,000 people.

More than 1,780 aftershocks have been recorded since then and meteorological officials expect more will be felt until May.

Earlier this month, an aftershock measuring 5.2 killed one man and injured 16 people in Pakistani Kashmir, one of the regions worst hit by the October disaster.

Moderate earthquake shakes northern Pakistan

[Soldier4Christ]

7 houses submerged, 48 people rescued in floods


ARLINGTON — At least seven houses were submerged in water up to their doorknobs Sunday and police and firefighters had performed 48 high-water rescues as rains dumped more than 3½ inches in three hours on the western part of the city.

Rush Creek swelled its banks and the runoff submerged nearby houses on Shady Valley Drive in about three feet of water.

Residents in the area said they stayed up all night watching the floodwaters rise.

"There is nothing you can do except watch,’’ said Rita Thornton, who lives in one of the houses that was flooded.

According to the national weather service, 3.69 inches of rain fell in Arlington from noon to about 3 p.m.

"There are houses that have water coming in them, and there are cars that are submerged" across the Dallas-Fort Worth area, said National Weather Service meteorologist Ted Ryan.

Emergency responders in Arlington responded to four dozen calls for rescues, between 1 p.m. and just after 4 p.m., said Mike Zufelt, a communication supervisor at the city’s 911 dispatch center. Most of those were in the south and southwest parts of town, he said.

"We didn’t expect anything like this," Zufelt said. "It hit all at once."

No injuries had been reported as a result of rising water. The evacuation of an apartment complex at Center Street and Pioneer Parkway, however, caused at least 50 people to be forced from their homes.

Zufelt said the American Red Cross was assisting those people.

Lt. Kent Worley, a spokesman for the Fort Worth Fire Department, said firefighters had received several calls from drivers stuck on flooded streets in low-lying areas in the city. But none of the flooding was severe.

"They pretty much have either walked out of there on their own or we’ve walked them on out, but it was nothing traumatic," Worley said.

He said the rain in Fort Worth has been on and off, so water has not accumulated as much as in other areas.

Just after 3 p.m., a dispatcher with the Tarrant County Sheriff’s Office said at least a dozen roads in the southern part of the county near Farm Road 1187 were flooded. In some areas the water was as high as four feet.

The area has been drenched with six inches of rain since Friday, and more than five inches fell Sunday near downtown Dallas, Ryan said. He said the storms are expected to continue through early Monday.

"Any more rain that falls ... is going to cause some tremendous flooding problems," Ryan said.

Dallas police are advising residents to stay in their homes and away from the central and northeast parts of the city during the torrential rains.

The police department received more than 80 calls regarding people in danger due to high water since 1 p.m., police said.

Though high-water locations are spread out across the city, most of the calls have come from the central and northeast parts, police said.

"We recommend that if you don't have to venture out of your homes, don't," said Senior Cpl. Max Geron said. "Put off any trips until after the rains."

[Soldier4Christ]

Storms saturate North Texas, one death reported

Associated Press

DALLAS — More than 5 inches of rain fell today in parts of North Texas, causing high-rising floodwaters that killed at least one person, officials said.

Dallas police Sr. Cpl. Max Geron said the body of a woman was recovered about 6:30 p.m. in Turtle Creek. Her identity was not released but Geron said officials believed she died after her car was swept off the road and into the water.

"There are houses that have water coming in them, and there are cars that are submerged" across the Dallas-Fort Worth area, said National Weather Service meteorologist Ted Ryan. He said at least two high water rescues were reported in Arlington.

The area has received 6 inches of rain since Friday, and more than 5 inches fell today near downtown Dallas, Ryan said. He said the storms were expected to continue through early Monday.

"Any more rain that falls ... is going to cause some tremendous flooding problems," Ryan said.

Geron said officers were working with firefighters to evacuate several homes in west Dallas this afternoon because of rising floodwaters. He said numerous people had been rescued from high water situations.

No water level estimates were immediately available but Ryan said floodwaters could probably rise to 5 feet in saturated areas.

Geron said the Police Department received hundreds of calls today involving wrecks. He said officers were working overtime to handle the high call volume.

Dallas County Sheriff's Sgt. Darrell Watson said a single-car wreck prompted authorities to close several lanes on westbound Interstate 20 but most reports involved flooding, not accidents.

"The area flooding is what's jamming the lines up with callers about whether it's high water on their property or on the streets," Watson said.

Flood warnings remained in effect this afternoon across North Texas. Conditions Monday were expected to be drier and warmer, with only a 20 percent chance of rain and highs near 72.

[Soldier4Christ]

Drought may worsen in U.S. Southwest, Plains--NOAA

Drought that has shriveled crops and sparked fires in bone-dry forests will persist and could even worsen across the Southwest and central and southern Plains through at least June, U.S. government forecasters said Thursday.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said in its spring weather forecast that these regions, which have already seen thousands of acres go up in flames, should brace for a "significant" wildfire season in 2006 as conditions become more severe.

"We need to monitor this drought situation very closely," said David Johnson, director of NOAA's National Weather Service division.

The return of La Nina, an unusual cooling of Pacific Ocean surface temperatures which is the flip side of El Nino, could make the Atlantic tropical storm season especially dangerous.

Indeed, some forecasters have already warned that the number of storms may top the record set just last year.

La Nina developed during the winter and has contributed to the dryness plaguing much of the southern United States.

"It's showing no signs of declining...and the odds that it's going to last into late summer have gone up," said Ed O'Lenic, meteorologist with NOAA's Climate Prediction Center.

He said La Nina tends to enhance weather "favorable to the development of hurricanes and tropical storms in the Atlantic."

Last year was the busiest Atlantic hurricane season on record, with 27 named storms and 15 hurricanes. NOAA previously warned that the hurricane season -- which typically peaks between Aug. 1 and late October -- could be active again in 2006.

SEVERE DROUGHT TO LINGER

Severe drought is blanketing the Southwest into the southern Plains and northward into Kansas. Heavy rains have eased dryness for now in Illinois, Iowa and extending south to Arkansas.

But weather forecasters said "ongoing drought concerns may linger."

A scarcity of rain since last fall has parched hard red winter wheat and dried up stock ponds and pastures in the southern Plains. A storm expected to drop up to 2.5 inches of rain this weekend in the Great Plains could be too late to save the winter wheat crop, government forecasters said.

"It kind of remains to be seen how much recovery there will be in wheat. Some of that wheat is getting to...frankly the point of no return" said Brad Rippey, a USDA meteorologist.

"But for just about everything else including pre-planting moisture for summer crops, pasture revival, wildfire control, the rain is nothing but good," he added.

Improved soil moisture will bode well for U.S. soft red winter areas while providing much-needed relief for corn and soybean crops later this spring.

Spring also will bring above normal temperatures for the Southwest eastward into the Southeast with cooler-than-normal conditions for the northern Plains and northern Rockies.

Below-normal precipitation is expected for much of the central and southern Plains, as well as the Southeast and Gulf Coast. Above normal precipitation is favored across the northern Plains and Great Lakes region.

[Shammu]

Tropical Cyclone Hits Northeast Australia

By MERAIAH FOLEY, Associated Press Writer 43 minutes ago

SYDNEY, Australia - A powerful tropical cyclone ripped the roofs off buildings and uprooted trees in northeastern Australia, tearing across the region on Monday with devastating winds that pinned emergency workers inside despite pleas from terrified residents.

With winds up to 180 mph at its height, Tropical Cyclone Larry smashed into the coastal community of Innisfail, about 60 miles south of Cairns, a popular jumping-off point for the Great Barrier Reef, sending hundreds of tourists and residents fleeing for higher ground.

Des Hensler, an Innisfail resident, sheltered alone in a church, up to his ankles in water.

"I don't get scared much, but this is something to make any man tremble in his boots," he told the Seven television network. "There's a gray sheet of water, horizontal to the ground, and just taking everything in its path."

About a dozen people had been reported with minor injuries, said Jim Guthrie, a spokesman for Queensland state's health department.

"This is far north Queensland and most people live with cyclones year in year out. They do take precautions," he said. "We've come out of it extremely well."

At the storm's height, police said they were unable to venture out to help fearful residents who called to say the gale-force winds had ripped the roofs off buildings and destroyed their homes.

Queensland state Premier Peter Beattie declared a state of emergency.

"It's the worst cyclone we've had in decades," Beattie told the Nine television network Monday.

The Bureau of Meteorology on Monday upgraded the cyclone to a Category 5 — the strongest category possible — shortly before it crossed the coast, but then lowered it to a Category 3 as the storm crossed land and weakened, with wind gusts up to 125 mph.

The storm passed directly over Australia's Great Barrier Reef, but there was no immediate word on what damage the reef may have suffered.

With reports of extensive damage across the northeastern coast, government and emergency officials were meeting Monday in Canberra to discuss sending troops to help clean up the cyclone-stricken area.

"If any military assets are needed, they will be made available," Prime Minister John Howard said.

Howard said he was confident the cyclone would not result in the chaos seen in New Orleans after Hurricane Katrina.

The storm has already devastated the region's multimillion-dollar banana and sugar farming industry, said George Pervan, deputy mayor of Johnstone Shire Council.

"The crops are all gone, bananas are all flattened, cane's flattened. It'll kill us for 12 or 18 months," Pervan said.

Up to 50,000 homes in the region were without power, and were expected to remain without electricity for several days, said Gaylene Whenmouth, a spokeswoman for Ergon Energy Cairns.

"It is still too windy to send crews out to do restoration, but we will be doing that as soon as we can, whenever it is safe to do so," Whenmouth said.

State Disaster Coordination Center spokesman Peter Rekers said thousands of volunteers were on standby to help with the cleanup, and warned residents to be on their guard for deadly animals stirred up by the storm.

"Keep your kids away from flooded drains, be aware of snakes and crocodiles," he said. "Those guys will have had a bad night too."

Tropical Cyclone Hits Northeast Australia

[Shammu]

Gaza faces food shortage, says UN
by Laila El-Haddad in Gaza
Sunday 19 March 2006 4:11 PM GMT

Wheat-flour stocks have run out in the Gaza Strip, with most bakeries closing and the United Nations warning of a looming humanitarian crisis after a nearly two-month commercial closure of Gaza imposed by Israel.

Gaza's 1.5 million Palestinians face an unprecedented food shortage because of Israeli closures that have prevented the import of wheat, the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs in the Occupied Palestinian Territories (OCHA) said on Sunday.

Emergency shipments of food will be brought into Gaza from Egypt on Monday, a US diplomat announced on Sunday after hosting talks on the re-opening of the Al-Mintar (Karni) border crossing point between Gaza and Israel.

Karni is the main import and export point for all goods in and out of Gaza.

"The situation is extremely serious," David Shearer, OCHA's head of operations, told Aljazeera.net. "In the next day or so all bread supplies will dry up.

"There is very little else around in terms of rice, which is also short in supply. Bread is the staple diet for Palestinians. It is also the food of the poorest people, so if that's not available, people will start to go hungry," Shearer said.

Richard Jones, the US ambassador to Israel, told reporters: "We have agreed that the crossing from Kerem Shalom will open tomorrow for imports of food and other essential humanitarian products from Egypt."

Kerem Shalom is inside Israel, at the corner of the border with Gaza and Egypt.

According to the World Bank, 65% of Gazans live below the poverty line, surviving on less than $2 a day.

"What we were warning before was that stocks were getting low. Today we are saying stocks are gone, and the end-point has been reached," Shearer said.

Vanishing stocks
The United Nations Relief and Works Agency and the World Food Programme have run out of emergency flour stocks, he said.

The Karni crossing is Gaza's commercial lifeline, the only point through which large-scale import of wheat and other goods can take place. The crossing has been closed for nearly 50 days this year, a total of 60% of the time, according to the UN.

The financial losses to the Palestinian economy are estimated at $500,000 a day.

The crossing was opened sporadically during the closure, but 3594 metric tonness of wheat flour contracted to local mills was unable to enter Gaza during this time, the World Food Programme said.

According to the Ministry of Economy, Palestinians in Gaza consume about 350 tonnes of flour a day, but all flour mills have shut down because of the depletion of wheat stocks, and bakeries are working through their last bags of stored flour.

Long lines
As word of the shortage spread, long lines formed through the night in front of the few bakeries still open for business, with residents flocking there to buy bread and flour for families under the roars of Israeli warplanes circling Gaza's skies.

Bakery owners were rationing bags of bread they had baked with the limited flour stocks in their emergency storage. In some instances, fights broke out between desperate customers.

"My husband waited for three hours to buy a bag of flour so we can bake at home, and all the bakeries have closed in our town. We don't know what we will do in a few days" said 50-year-old Um Ramadan, who has an eight-member family.

The UN says the usual 30- to 60-day wheat stock has been exhausted, and other basic food commodities, such as dairy products and fruit, are in short supply.

Rice and sugar are selling at more than twice their normal price and are difficult to find in stores, while prices of local vegetables marked for export, such as tomatoes and green peppers, have plummeted.

'On a diet'
Nabil Abu Rudeinah, a spokesman for the Palestinian president, criticised the closure of the border crossing.

"Israel must realise it cannot starve the Palestinians," he said. "The situation is critical and we cannot accept it. We have asked the Americans to intervene."

Dov Weisglass, the Israeli prime ministerial adviser, recently described the Israeli sanctions policy after Hamas's January election victory as one in which Palestinians would be "put on a diet", but not starved to death.

The United Nations has condemned the closure and noted that 40% of children in the Gaza Strip suffer from malnutrition and that under the fourth Geneva Convention, Israel, as an occupying power, is responsible for the welfare of Palestinians in the Gaza Strip.

Israeli authorities say the crossing has been closed because of security threats, specifically, fears that tunnels had been built under the crossing. Palestinians have rejected such claims, saying the closure is politically motivated.

Kerem Shalom

After the meeting Jones's home near Tel Aviv, chief Palestinian negotiator Saeb Erikat said: "We decided on an Egyptian-Palestinian-US meeting to agree on arrangements for goods to enter (Gaza) through Kerem Shalom."

Jones said a meeting would be held Monday at Kerem Shalom to work out the operational details for food shipments from Egypt to Gaza, Reuters reported.

Israel had proposed a limited transfer of goods via Kerem Shalom. Palestinians had rejected the offer, saying Kerem Shalom was too small to meet the needs of Gazans.

Gaza faces food shortage, says UN

[Shammu]

Israel Confirms First Outbreak of Bird Flu

By RAMIT PLUSHNICK-MASTI, Associated Press Writer 41 minutes ago

JERUSALEM - Israel on Monday confirmed its first outbreak of the deadly H5N1 strain of bird flu. In a statement on its Web site, the Agriculture Ministry said the flu had been found in birds at two communal farms in southern Israel and at a farming community in central Israel.

Fearing the worst, Israel had gone ahead Saturday with the slaughter of hundreds of thousands of chickens and turkeys.

The H5N1 virus has killed or forced the slaughter of tens of millions of chickens and ducks across Asia since 2003, and recently spread to Europe, Africa and the Middle East.

World health officials fear H5N1 could evolve into a virus that would easily be transmitted between people, potentially triggering a global pandemic, though there is no evidence that is happening.

About 100 people have died from the disease worldwide, most after having been directly infected by sick birds.

On Sunday, Egypt reported its second human case of avian flu — a 30-year-old Egyptian who worked on a chicken farm in the province of Qalyoubiya.

The man was recovering in the hospital after being admitted Thursday with a fever, Deputy Health Minister Nasser el-Sayyed said.

The country's first known human case, a woman who died Friday, was from the same province, north of Cairo. The two victims had not had any contact and were from different villages, el-Sayyed said.

The Egypt-based U.S. Naval Medical Research was conducting additional tests to confirm whether the illnesses were caused by the H5N1 strain, the Health Ministry said in a statement run by the state Middle East News Agency.

Egypt discovered its first cases of the virus in birds last month.

Israel Confirms First Outbreak of Bird Flu

[Soldier4Christ]

US Northeast due for major hurricane: AccuWeather

The 2006 hurricane season will be more active than normal and could bring a devastating storm to the U.S. Northeast, private forecaster AccuWeather said on Monday.

The outlook comes after the most costly hurricane season on record in 2005, with storms crippling New Orleans and other parts of the U.S. Gulf Coast and briefly knocking out a quarter of domestic fuel production.

"There are now indications that the Northeast will experience a hurricane larger and more powerful than anything that region has seen in a long time," said Ken Reeves, senior meteorologist at AccuWeather.com.

"The Northeast is staring down the barrel of a gun," said Joe Bastardi, AccuWeather.com's chief hurricane forecaster.

The current storm cycle and above-normal water temperatures in the Atlantic are reminiscent of the pattern that produced the 1938 hurricane that struck Providence, Rhode Island, killing 600 people, Bastardi said.

"The Northeast coast is long overdue for a powerful hurricane, and with the weather patterns and hydrology we're seeing in the oceans, the likelihood of a major hurricane making landfall in the Northeast is not a question of if but when," he said.

The Texas coast from Corpus Christi to the Louisiana border is also likely to be the target of higher than normal hurricane activity over the next 10 years, according to the forecast.

Hurricane Katrina struck New Orleans and the Mississippi coast last August with winds above 135 mph and a 30-foot-high storm surge, causing more than $60 billion in damage.

Katrina was followed by Hurricanes Rita in Texas and Wilma in Florida. Each wreaked more than $10 billion of insured losses, making 2005 the most expensive year for hurricanes ever.

Bastardi said this year's storm activity will be above normal, but could be less active than 2005.

[Soldier4Christ]

 Cyclone Larry deals
a massive blow

20mar06

CYCLONE Larry has damaged more than half the houses in the northern Queensland town of Innisfail.

 Larry was a category-five cyclone - the strongest possible - when it slammed into the coast near Innisfail, south of Cairns, this morning.

It was packing winds of up to 290km/h, and terrified residents reported roofs being ripped off houses.

Queensland Premier Peter Mr Beattie, who was on his way to visit the devastated area, said the cyclone had left a trail of destruction in its wake.

He said 55 per cent of buildings in Innisfail were damaged.

"Some have been flattened, roofs have been taken off," Mr Beattie said on Macquarie Radio.

: "The property damage has been immense ... powerlines are down and it will take days to replace them because of the damage.

"We haven't had a cyclone like this for decades, if we've ever had one like it before."

Residents appear to have escaped mainly unharmed by Cyclone Larry, despite widespread destruction of crops and an expected multi-million-dollar damage bill.

Four people are being treated for injuries. None is in a serious condition.

Larry has since been downgraded to a category two, but still poses a threat to inland communities.

Authorities have warned people in affected areas to beware of snakes and crocodiles that may become active in the storm's wake.

To add to the region's concern, a second cyclone, Wati, has formed behind Larry but was today near Vanuatu and not posing any immediate threat.

Earlier today as the cyclone roared through the town of Innisfail, Bureau of Meteorology forecaster Jonty Hall said: "It doesn't get much worse than this."

Innisfail police were inundated with calls from residents whose homes were "literally crumbling around them".