Prophecy Series III - World Economics

[2nd Timothy]

In this next series, I wanted to touch on world economy and how current events might be related to end time events.   We know that Revelation makes mention of this aspect of the AC's control over the world by his mark and controlling how the world will buy, sell and trade.   Clearly this is included in Revelation for our instruction and understanding and should be looked at.

An aquantance of mine who has personal experience trading in markets, was discussing world economics on another message forum.  I asked him if he would mind me using a few of his posts to share with others, and he said he didn't mind.   So to start off, using his posts, we will try to first understand how world economy works.  Its quite interesting and makes basic economics fairly easy to understand.

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The US Dollar has been over valued for many years. The last 5 years the US has allowed the currency to devalue at a nice consistent rate. Why would we want that?

It is simple. The lower the value of the dollar the cheaper our exports are to other countries. The cheaper our exports, the more likely that other countries will purchase more of our products. The more products other countries purchase the better our economy.

It has been recognized by the whole world that the US economy drives the world economy. Bad US economy = Bad world economy, Good US economy = Good world economy. The key to world markets is "no surprises". People get nervous and panic sell when things get out of control, thus making the market even more volatile. The same is true in currency markets.

The other side of the story is that if the US Dollar loses value and the Euro, for example, gains value; then European products become more expensive in the US. The more expensive Euro products are in the US the less likely US citizens are to buy Euro products.

The fewer Euro products purchased in the US translates to slowing the Euro market. This has a negative effect on the Euro economy. The reason you start hearing about European gov'ts threatening to intervene in the currency markets at around 1.30 for the Euro is because above this value jobs will begin to be lost in Europe.

This is a warning to currency traders that if they continue to speculate and drive the value above around 1.35 then the central banks will sell Euro assets to drive the price back down. If they do that it happens overnight. Currency traders stand to lose in a big way if the central banks do that. The value of their Euro assets drops dramatical forcing many into sort of a currency bankruptcy.

Japan does it all the time with the Yen vs the $ currency pair. It is a vital national interest to Japan to keep their currency low with respect to the US dollar. Japan is an exporter nation. If their currency value increases it directly affects their economy. They consider it so vital that they purchase a large portion of the US debt ($'s). By purchasing large amounts of dollars it has the effect of making their currency less valuable when compared against the dollar. This allows their exporters to continue to export low priced goods to the US and thus keeps their economic engine humming.
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I asked him at this point, how current events, like the rise of the record lows of the US dollar against the Euro might play into this.   Here is His response.


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The currency system is referred to as a floating standard. What is meant by that is that the free market of supply/demand should drive the value of all currencies. This system replaced the gold standard. The problem with gold was that there wasn't enough gold to back the assets required to satisfy all the different world economies.

The problem with the current system can be seen by the actions of Japan and China. China hasn't floated its' currency yet. They do not trade their currency with any other currencies thus there is no true market value determined by supply/demand. China determines the value of the Yuan in a closed market.

They conveniently set that value at a position which is favorable for them to export extremely low priced goods. Japan has a floating currency, the Yen. They achieve the same results by meddling in the market.

Lately there is a lot of pressure on China to float their currency. By artificially changing the value of the Yuan, they basically have an unfair trade advantage over other nations. Trade wars are nothing new to the world.

Japan indirectly affects the price of the Euro as well. Virtually all the major economies currencies are traded against each other. So when Japan buys all those dollars and lowers the Yen it also has the effect of raising the value of the Euro through the Eur/Yen trading pair. Yen goes down Euro goes up and visa versa. It is almost to the point that a coin put into the system affects all currencies in the system.

Many believe that the AC will somehow introduce a miracle like economic system that has the whole world prospering. There are verses in the bible that seem to indicate this is the case.

Rev 18:3 For all nations have drunk of the wine of the wrath of her fornication, and the kings of the earth have committed fornication with her, and the merchants of the earth are waxed rich through the abundance of her delicacies.

Rev 18:10 Standing afar off for the fear of her torment, saying, Alas, alas, that great city Babylon, that mighty city! for in one hour is thy judgment come.
Rev 18:11 And the merchants of the earth shall weep and mourn over her; for no man buyeth their merchandise any more:
Rev 18:12 The merchandise of gold, and silver, and precious stones, and of pearls, and fine linen, and purple, and silk, and scarlet, and all thyine wood, and all manner vessels of ivory, and all manner vessels of most precious wood, and of brass, and iron, and marble,
Rev 18:13 And cinnamon, and odours, and ointments, and frankincense, and wine, and oil, and fine flour, and wheat, and beasts, and sheep, and horses, and chariots, and slaves, and souls of men.


There is definitely lots of profitable trade associated with Babylon. The current condition of the currency exchanges fosters nationalities to break the rules of the game and under cut each other in a way. That is basically what Europe is threatening when they talk about the central banks intervening.

If they intervene it will also affect all the rest of the currencies. It will raise the value of the Yen, which Japan will try to counter because a lower Euro raises the value of the Yen hurting their exports. It isn't unimaginable to see an incident where the nations could escalate this behavior to the point of war.

Any war in these times is dangerous. As all the emerging economies try to get their cut of the pie, it could make the current system unworkable. Maybe a major war would break out over trade, who knows?

That would be a perfect opportunity for the AC to step in with some new solution to the trade problems. We know that the trade of merchandise is specifically mentioned in Rev 18 as a characteristic of the AC kingdom. There is also mention of the AC causing crafts to prosper. The economic aspect of the AC kingdom merits enough importance to be mentioned in Revelation.
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FASCINATING!!!

He brings up some very interesting points.   All this has me wondering about recent news regarding the US dollar hitting all time lows against the Euro and how that might be related to prophecy.   If it is, we should expect to eventually see some sort of globe sweeping reform in the future to limit the US dollar's influence over world economies.   Its not hard to see that if the EU and the AC is to rise to ultimate power over the world, the US dollar cannot remain a driving force in the world market.   We could be witnessing the beginnings of how this will all come pass shortly.

Keep looking up!

[Shammu]

European Economic and Monetery Union

The Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) is a single currency area within the European Union in which people, goods, services and capital move without restriction (Europa Quest (1), 2001). Imperative to the success of the EMU is the implementation of a single European currency, the Euro, and the application of specific macro-economic policies by the EMU member states (Harris, 1999: 78). Moreover, it is the foreseeable intent of European governments to create a framework for stability, peace and prosperity through the promotion of structural change and regional development (JP Morgan, 2001). This essay will endeavor to highlight the fundamental gains likely to be accrued by the European business community as a result of EMU policy provisions. The developments and circumstances preceding the EMU formation will be examined to give insight into the functioning of a monetary union. Furthermore, it is essential to analyze the implications the EMU has for firms within both ¡¥Euroland¡¦ and other European nations.

To establish a strong understanding of the intricacies of the EMU, it is essential to discuss both the antecedents and major developments in this monetary union. The origins of the EMU can be traced to the formation of the European Coal and Steel community (ECSC) in the early 1950s, which was the first attempt to harness European economic unity to achieve greater international competitiveness (Per Jacobson, 1999) (Duisenberg, 1998). The success of this venture prompted the foreign ministers of six ECSC nations to examine the possibility of further economic integration (Chulalongkorn University, 1999). Hence, in 1957 one the most significant agreements in European economics history, The Treaty of Rome, was signed. The Treaty of Rome¡¦s fundamental goal was to provide for the creation of a common market (Kenwood & Lougheed, 1999:280). The most significant aspect of this treaty was the commitment made by such countries as Belgium, France, West Germany, the Netherlands, Italy and Luxembourg to facilitate the free movement of goods, services and factors of production. Essentially, these European governments sought to eliminate internal trade barriers, create common external tariffs and harmonies member states laws and regulations (Hill, 2001: 233). This movement towards a common European market continued with relative success until the late 1960s. During this period, the Bretton-Woods Exchange Rate Regime had begun to exhibit unmistakable flaws, whilst global inflation was alarming high. In addition, the revaluation of the German Deustchemark and the devaluation of the French Franc, created considerable exchange rate volatility within Europe (Barber, 1999). It was a common held belief amongst many member states, that Europe¡¦s ability to compete within the global economy hinged on the introduction of a single currency (d¡¦Estaing, 1997). Hence, in 1970 the Werner Committee was established to resolve the most efficient means to converge economic performance and currencies (Harris, 1999:76). The Werner Report proposed a three-stage process for achieving a complete monetary union within a decade. The final goal would be the free movement of capital, the permanent locking of exchange rates and the eventual replacement of the EC6 nations notes and coins with a single currency (Barber, 1999). The committee proposed a complete European Monetary Union by 1980, however the failure of the Smithsonian Agreement, the subsequent introduction of a floating exchange rate regime and the infamous Oil Price Shocks of the 70s, caused the plans outlined by the Werner Committee to be abandoned (Harris, 1999:79). In retrospect, the endeavors of the EMU were bold considering the erratic economic climate of the 1970s (Kenwood and Lougheed, 1999:310). Yet, even in this period of economic uncertainty, EC member¡¦s still persued the concept of European Unity (Princeton Economics, 1998). In 1979, the European Monetary System (EMS) was established to foster a greater stability between member state¡¦s currencies and stronger coordination and convergence of economic policies (Europa Quest (1), 2001). The EMS consisted of four main components, the European Currency Unit (ECU), The Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM), The Financial Support Mechanism (FSM) and the European Monetary Cooperation Fund (EMCF) (Harris, 1999: 80). The ERM was at the ¡¥heart¡¦ of the EMS and provided for ¡§fixed but adjustable¡¨ exchange rates between countries, whereby currencies could move within certain margins or fluctuations. When limits were breached the responsible authorities were required to impose appropriate policy measures (Europa Quest (1), 2001). The EMS enjoyed considerable success during the 1980s, lowering inflation rates in the EC and easing the adverse financial effects of the global exchange rate fluctuations (Chulalongkorn University, 1999). The most problematic aspect of the EMS was that it held no true sovereignty over member states, rather these countries still maintained autonomy over currencies and macro-economic policies (Harris, 1999; 80). To rectify this systems inadequacy, Jacques Delors, the President of the European Commission, issued the Cockfield Report, which sought to define the current status of the European markets and establish the correct means for implementing a monetary union (Chulalongkorn University, 1999). Delors identified the greatest challenges facing the EC, which were;
1. The elimination of non-tariff barriers had not been achieved as specified under the Treaty of Rome. Instead, EC member states had begun to utilize such measures as Value Added Taxes (VAT), environmental laws, subsidies and difficult technical standards to circumvent established guidelines and protect domestic industry.
2. The growing dominance of the US and Japan, required Europe to economically and politically integrate in order to effectively compete.
3. Undertaking a concerted and structured attempt at implementing a single currency was imperative.
(Harris, 1999:70-71)

4 times I tried to shorten it up....... 3 times I failed.  
To finish reading the post.....
http://www.antiessays.com/essay.php?eid=1566

[nChrist]

2nd Timothy & DreamWeaver,

THANKS BROTHERS!

This is fascinating, and I appreciate you sharing it. It is becoming more and more obvious that we are probably seeing Bible Prophecy being fulfilled right before our eyes.

The topic of economy is just one example of many in the pieces of Bible Prophecy coming together. I listened to a short news show yesterday that concentrated on the EU accusing the US of hurting their economies. France, especially, is suffering from changing markets, boycotts, and other economic woes.

Brothers, I just don't think that we will be here that much longer. Thanks for sharing this thought-provoking material. I hope to join you in sharing material soon.

Love In Christ,
Tom

[2nd Timothy]

The title says it all.


source: Boston Herald


Economic `Armageddon' predicted
By Brett Arends/ On State Street
Tuesday, November 23, 2004

Stephen Roach, the chief economist at investment banking giant Morgan Stanley, has a public reputation for being bearish.
 
But you should hear what he's saying in private.
 
Roach met select groups of fund managers downtown last week, including a group at Fidelity.
 
His prediction: America has no better than a 10 percent chance of avoiding economic ``armageddon.''
 
Press were not allowed into the meetings. But the Herald has obtained a copy of Roach's presentation. A stunned source who was at one meeting said, ``it struck me how extreme he was - much more, it seemed to me, than in public.''
 
Roach sees a 30 percent chance of a slump soon and a 60 percent chance that ``we'll muddle through for a while and delay the eventual armageddon.''
 
The chance we'll get through OK: one in 10. Maybe.
 
In a nutshell, Roach's argument is that America's record trade deficit means the dollar will keep falling. To keep foreigners buying T-bills and prevent a resulting rise in inflation, Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan will be forced to raise interest rates further and faster than he wants.
 
The result: U.S. consumers, who are in debt up to their eyeballs, will get pounded.
 
Less a case of ``Armageddon,'' maybe, than of a ``Perfect Storm.''
 
Roach marshalled alarming facts to support his argument.
 
To finance its current account deficit with the rest of the world, he said, America has to import $2.6 billion in cash. Every working day.
 
That is an amazing 80 percent of the entire world's net savings.
 
Sustainable? Hardly.
 
Meanwhile, he notes that household debt is at record levels.
 
Twenty years ago the total debt of U.S. households was equal to half the size of the economy.
 
Today the figure is 85 percent.
 
Nearly half of new mortgage borrowing is at flexible interest rates, leaving borrowers much more vulnerable to rate hikes.
 
Americans are already spending a record share of disposable income paying their interest bills. And interest rates haven't even risen much yet.
 
You don't have to ask a Wall Street economist to know this, of course. Watch people wielding their credit cards this Christmas.
 
Roach's analysis isn't entirely new. But recent events give it extra force.
 
The dollar is hitting fresh lows against currencies from the yen to the euro.
 
Its parachute failed to open over the weekend, when a meeting of the world's top finance ministers produced no promise of concerted intervention.
 
It has farther to fall, especially against Asian currencies, analysts agree.
 
The Fed chairman was drawn to warn on the dollar, and interest rates, on Friday.
 
Roach could not be reached for comment yesterday. A source who heard the presentation concluded that a ``spectacular wave of bankruptcies'' is possible.
 
Smart people downtown agree with much of the analysis. It is undeniable that America is living in a ``debt bubble'' of record proportions.
 
But they argue there may be an alternative scenario to Roach's. Greenspan might instead deliberately allow the dollar to slump and inflation to rise, whittling away at the value of today's consumer debts in real terms.
 
Inflation of 7 percent a year halves ``real'' values in a decade.
 
It may be the only way out of the trap.
 
Higher interest rates, or higher inflation: Either way, the biggest losers will be long-term lenders at fixed interest rates.
 
You wouldn't want to hold 30-year Treasuries, which today yield just 4.83 percent
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[Shammu]

Nov. 23, 2004 23:44
World Bank blames Israel for PA poverty
By MARGOT DUDKEVITCH
http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?pagename=JPost/JPArticle/ShowFull&cid=1101183311617

Nearly half of the Palestinian population is living below the poverty line on barely $2 a day or less, a World Bank report stated in its first assessment of the Palestinian Authority's economy, released on Tuesday.

Titled "Four Years – Intifada, Closures, and Palestinian Economic Crisis," the report blames the dire state of the PA economy on Israel and its policy of imposing closures and restrictions on PA areas. The World Bank report says unemployment has risen to 27%.

Similarly, the Civil Administration in Judea and Samaria put unemployment in September in the West Bank at 28.7%, down from 30% in July; during the same period in 2002, unemployment was 42%.

The administration based its assessment on figures from a survey conducted by the Palestinian Bureau of Statistics, which show a drop in unemployment in the Palestinian areas of the West Bank for the third quarter of this year, with 5,000 Palestinians receiving work. It attributed this drop to an easing of movement restrictions, better public transportation, and more efficient procedures for trucking goods into the West Bank from Israel.

According to the World Bank report, the poverty rate has reached 48%, with 1.7 million Palestinians living below the poverty line earning $2.10 a day and a third of that figure earning less than $1.50 a day.

According to the report, if Israel opened PA borders to foreign trade, unemployment would be reduced by 23% and the number of people living under the poverty line would be reduced by 10%; it could be reduced further if donor countries increased their aid to the PA by $1.5 billion.

The report advises the PA to introduce reforms, increase transparency in managing finances, and privatize public bodies.


Now what I don't understand is why, if Palestinian is so poor. They can give Arafats wife so much money to live on. That is reported to be in the millions.  But the world bank is always looking for a scape-goat.
Bob

[2nd Timothy]

Now what I don't understand is why, if Palestinian is so poor. They can give Arafats wife so much money to live on. That is reported to be in the millions.  But the world bank is always looking for a scape-goat.
Bob

[Shammu]

Thu., December 02, 2004 Kislev 19, 5765

World Bank sets conditions for PA aid
By Aluf Benn

The World Bank wants to condition increased international aid to the Palestinians upon a series of measures to be taken by Israel and the Palestinian Authority, according to a report it issued yesterday, ahead of the conference of PA donor countries in Norway next week.
Foreign Minister Silvan Shalom will be meeting today with representatives of the donor countries to present Israel's position.

Only if the parties take sufficient steps to restart the economy on a path toward growth will there be reason to convene a recovery conference of the donor countries, which will be asked to promise additional sums for development purposes, the report stated.

The report requires Israel to ease closures and restrictions on mobility in the territories. The PA is required to carry out thorough security, economic and judicial reforms and shed the corrupt image of the PA civil service, to bolster investors' faith.

The World Bank representative in the territories, Nigel Roberts, told Haaretz yesterday that international aid to the PA doubled during the intifada, to about a billion dollars annually, but the result was an economic collapse of historic proportions. Donors cannot be expected to save the Palestinian economy, Roberts said, without first being assured that suitable conditions exist, and both sides worked to create the proper environment.

The World Bank report followed talks over several months with Israeli and PA representatives about the economic ramifications of the disengagement plan (though the bank's recovery plan applies to the entire West Bank and Gaza Strip).

The process was unconventional, Roberts observed, in that Israel decided it has no Palestinian partner, but it could not disengage completely unilaterally.

World Bank officials and representatives of several donor countries held separate talks with the Israeli team, headed by the national security adviser, Giora Eiland, and the deputy director-general for economic affairs at the Foreign Ministry, Yossi Gal, and with the Palestinian team headed by Finance Minister Maher al-Masri. The sides did not meet and exchanged messages through the international officials.

The report reveals a serious dispute between the World Bank and Israel and sharply criticizes Israel's closure policy, which the bank views as the primary obstacle to Palestinian economic recovery. Israel offered to ease closures somewhat, but in Robert's view that is not enough. The bank says that internal closures burden Palestinian trade and export, and substantially raise transport costs.

The donor countries rejected Israel's proposal for upgrading Palestinian roads in the West Bank because of PA opposition (reported this week in Haaretz). Israel also proposed connecting the territories to the Israeli rail network to assist cargo transport. Bank experts vehemently oppose the Israeli-dictated system of transfering loads "back-to-back" between trucks from the territories and Israel, and propose streamlining the process by integrating technology and more efficient management of the crossing points.

Israel proposed establishing more sophisticated crossings and asked for $135 million in international aid to install technology for easing transport. However, the World Bank wants the crossings situated on the Green Line, following the ruling on the separation fence route by the International Court of Justice in The Hague. The Israeli plan calls for three crossings to be established within the West Bank. The bank's proposal is to experiment with two crossings built on the Green Line - Karni in the Gaza Strip and Jalameh in northern Samaria.

The bank also favors building a sea port in Gaza and restoring its airport. In the interim, the bank proposes establishing a shallow-water port, from which cargo would be transported in small craft to an Egyptian port, and launching a helicopter flight route from Gaza to Jordan.

The report also considered the fate of assets of evacuated settlements. The bank recommends the PA exercise maximum transparency in allocating those assets and engage public institutions in the process.
http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/508681.html

[Shammu]

2 December 2004 - Towards a Single Euro Payments Area – third Progress report

In its third progress report on the single euro payment area (SEPA), which is published today, the Governing Council of the ECB assesses recent developments in the efforts to transform the still largely fragmented national retail payment systems into a single euro payment area. The objective of a SEPA is to enable European citizens to make payments throughout the whole area from a single bank account, using a single set of payment instruments, as easily and safely as in the national context today. For the customer, it should not make any difference where or with which bank in the euro area the account is held. The Eurosystem’s vision for the SEPA, hence, is that all euro area payments should become domestic. They should be as safe and efficient as payments made through the best-performing national payment systems today. Establishing a pan-European infrastructure for the SEPA would increase overall efficiency due to economies of scale.

In the White Paper of May 2002, 42 European banks and the European credit sector associations clearly expressed a similar vision. The Eurosystem welcomed the forming of a European Payments Council[1] (EPC) by the banks in June 2002, aiming to fully achieve the SEPA by 2010. This would include the development of a complete set of pan-European instruments, to be available by end-2007. In this regard, the Eurosystem recommends that these instruments be made available as an option for national payments to individuals and enterprises as early as 2008, without having to change the national infrastructure at that stage. In this way, the SEPA for the citizen would already be achieved. A full migration for banks and their customers to pan-European solutions would be achieved by end-2010.

It is clearly the EPC’s responsibility to specify the SEPA objectives and the national banking communities’ responsibility to define and implement the national migration plan. The Eurosystem strongly supports the EPC’s goal to develop and implement pan-European payment instruments, starting with credit transfers, direct debits and debit cards.

In addition, the Eurosystem invites the national banking communities in the euro area to:

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      present convincing arrangements for the implementation of EPC decisions at the domestic level (no later than six months after their adoption at EPC level);
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      present to the EPC, during 2005, a national migration plan for the gradual transition to the SEPA by end-2010.

The euro area national central banks stand ready to contribute to the local implementation of the SEPA objectives. The EPC should monitor each national banking community’s contribution to the SEPA. The Governing Council intends to monitor progress regularly.

http://www.ecb.int/press/pr/date/2004/html/pr041202_1.en.html

[Bern]

It seems that the world will lapse into a global depression some time soon.. I think God will use that to refine His saints. Like a wilderness experience, to make them rely on Him. And as has been said, the AC then has a perfect platform to "revive" the world and for everyone to think he's brilliant.

Praise God that we have the Holy Spirit dwelling within us, and His grace is sufficient for us in tough times. God is a miracle working God! He will see His children through. God grant us the faith to believe that He will provide for His flock!