Wheat Rises on Increased Indian Demand, Shrinking Global Supply
By Tony C. Dreibus
Sept. 4 (Bloomberg) -- Wheat rose the exchange limit on increased purchases by India, the second-biggest consumer, and on forecasts that global supplies will drop to a 26-year low.
India yesterday bought 795,000 metric tons of wheat from unknown suppliers for a record $389.45 a ton. Japan today said it plans to buy 175,000 tons. Exporter AWB Ltd. said Australian growers will produce 20 million tons, less than the government's June forecast of 22.5 million tons. Wheat prices have doubled in the past year, reaching a record last week.
``The market's trying to find a price that chokes off demand and it hasn't found it yet,'' said Jeff McReynolds, owner of McReynolds Marketing & Investments in Hays, Kansas. ``The importing nations are scared. They want to be sure they have wheat on the books in case the price goes higher.''
Wheat for December delivery rose 30 cents, or 3.9 percent, to $8.055 a bushel just after the 9:30 a.m. opening of regular trading on the Chicago Board of Trade and was still up the 30- cent limit at 12:07 p.m. local time. The gain is the 10th in 12 sessions. Most-active futures, which reached a record $8.0775 on Aug. 31, have rallied as global consumption exceeded production for the seventh time in eight years.
U.S. Exports
U.S. exporters sold 95 percent more wheat from June 1 through Aug. 23 than a year earlier, USDA data show. About 33.2 million bushels of the grain were inspected for export last week compared with 22 million the same week a year earlier, according to the government.
Global supplies are expected to decline to 114.8 million metric tons by the end of the marketing year on May 31, 2008, the lowest since 1982, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said last month. Unusual weather has hurt crops in several regions, including Europe, the U.S., Canada and Australia.
Australia's production estimates have been falling as drought damages the maturing crop. Growers may harvest 18.5 million tons, according to the median estimate of eight analysts and traders surveyed by Bloomberg News.
``That number isn't going to surprise anybody, but it's further confirmation that the Southern Hemisphere is in trouble,'' McReynolds said. ``Argentina is in trouble, too -- they need some rain.''
Australia, Argentina
Australia is expected to be the third-largest exporter in the marketing year that ends May 31, behind the U.S. and Canada, according to the USDA.
Argentina, the fifth-biggest exporter of the grain, is expected to produce 14 million tons by May 31, 7.9 percent less than the prior year, the USDA said Aug. 10. Rains are needed in the country to boost soil moisture and improve crop conditions, Woburn, Massachusetts-based Meteorlogix LLC said in a report.
Drought followed by excessive precipitation in parts of the U.K., France and Germany damaged plants. Futures prices on the Liffe Exchange in Paris yesterday reached a record of 264.50 euros a metric ton, or $9.76 a bushel.
Russia, the fifth-largest exporter of wheat, is considering selling the grain from state inventories and imposing export duties and quotas to curb domestic grain prices.
The price will continue its rally to record levels, possibly reaching $9 a bushel in Chicago, McReynolds said. Until last month, the record for a contract was for $7.50, reached on March 20, 1996.
``When grains rise to a record they tend to blow the old record out of the water,'' McReynolds said. ``A 20 percent move is not the least bit uncommon. Add 20 percent to the old record and you're looking at $9 wheat.''
Wheat Rises on Increased Indian Demand, Shrinking Global Supply 
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