Wild Weather

[Shammu]

Philippines Bracing for 'Super Typhoon'

Wednesday, November 21, 2007

MANILA, Philippines —
President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo ordered the evacuation of thousands of people in the eastern Philippines ahead of a powerful tropical storm, officials said Wednesday.

In one province alone, officials estimated that up to 200,000 people would be evacuated to gymnasiums, churches and schools by Friday when Tropical Storm Mitag was forecast to make landfall.

And in Vietnam, the government said Tropical Storm Hagibis was expected to hit the country's southern region Saturday.

Mitag could became a "super typhoon" with winds of more than 138 mph by the time it hits land in the Philippines, chief government forecaster Nathaniel Cruz said.

"It's still far, and that means we still have time to conduct preparedness," Cruz said. "With two days in the open sea, it has a big potential to become a very strong typhoon."

Recent rains have saturated the ground around Mayon volcano in Bicol, and the president was worried there could be a repeat of last year's landslides and flash floods that killed more than 1,000 people, said Anthony Golez, deputy director of the Office of Civil Defense.

Gov. Joey Salceda of Albay, where last year's Typhoon Durian unleashed tons of volcanic debris that wiped out entire villages, said some schools will be used as temporary shelters.

The same communities devastated last year were again flooded Wednesday. A wooden bridge connecting two villages in Daraga township was washed away, local officials said.

Evacuations also were reported from the provincial capital of Legazpi and nearby Daraga township, Cedric Daep, executive officer of the Albay disaster office, told The Associated Press.

He said many residents were terrified after the devastation last time.

"If we don't prepare now, they will be more scared," he said.

In neighboring Sorsogon province, radio announcements advised officials, community leaders and the public to prepare to evacuate, provincial disaster officer Noel Pura said.

Philippines Bracing for 'Super Typhoon'

[Shammu]

Philippines Brace for Powerful Typhoons, Thousands Evacuated

Friday , November 23, 2007

MANILA, Philippines  —
Officials stepped up the evacuation of tens of thousands of people from coastal villages and riversides Friday as a powerful typhoon stalled off the eastern Philippines.

Typhoon Mitag was "stationary" 125 miles east of the island province of Catanduanes in the Bicol region, said Prisco Nilo, the head of the country's weather bureau. The storm was packing winds of 109 mph and gusts of 131 mph.

Nilo told President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo and other officials that the typhoon "appears to have not moved," making it difficult to predict its direction. But he said "the most logical" direction the storm would take was toward Bicol, making landfall Saturday on Catanduanes.

He warned of storm surges and a rise in the sea level in areas directly affected by the typhoon and heavy rains and strong winds elsewhere.

Philippine disaster officials said more than 194,000 people have fled or been evacuated to temporary shelters in Albay, Sorsogon, Camarines Sur, Camarines Norte and Catanduanes provinces on the southern tip of the main Philippine island of Luzon.

Philippine forecasters said Mitag could intensify into a "super typhoon" with more than 138 mph winds.

Chief government forecaster Nathaniel Cruz said a powerful but slow-moving typhoon could wreak more havoc than one that passes quickly.

"The end result is that more things will be blown down and destroyed," he said.

In Vietnam, officials began evacuating 200,000 people as Typhoon Hagibis headed to the country after leaving 13 people dead in the Philippines earlier this week.

Hagibis was packing 83 mph winds and was expected to make landfall Saturday on Vietnam's southern coast.

In the South China Sea, 25 Filipino sailors were missing after a their fishing boat capsized in rough seas, a Chinese maritime official said Friday. Thirty other crew members were rescued and search teams were dispatched to look for the missing, said a man at the China Maritime Search and Rescue Center who gave only his surname, Zhang.

Catanduanes Gov. Joseph Cua said constant rains triggered landslides, blocking the main highway and isolating six northern towns. The main Bato river also was rising, he said.

He has directed the mayor of one isolated town to distribute about 800 110-pound sacks of rice from a government warehouse in case food runs short while the town is inaccessible.

Several flights to the region from Manila were canceled.

In Manila, workers started rolling up giant roadside tarpaulin billboards on steel frames to prevent them from being toppled by strong winds.

Arroyo, concerned about a repeat of last year's disaster in Bicol, ordered mass evacuations along the typhoon's expected path. She cut short her visit to Singapore, where she was attending an Asian summit.

Cruz, the weather forecaster, said after slamming into Catanduanes, the typhoon could veer slightly southwest and hit Albay province, which bore the brunt of last year's Typhoon Durian. That typhoon triggered flash floods and unleashed tons of debris, killing more than 1,000 people.

Albay Gov. Joey Salceda has suspended classes so some schools can be used as shelters. The provincial government mobilized military and police trucks to transport residents to evacuation centers.

He said the "pre-emptive evacuation" would prevent more difficult rescue work at the height of the typhoon.

"The order of the president is zero casualty," he told DZRH radio Friday. "We are ordering the evacuation of the eastern seaboard. This is a huge population."

He said those who refuse to evacuate will be asked to sign a waiver.

Philippines Brace for Powerful Typhoons, Thousands Evacuated

[Soldier4Christ]

Hurricane forecasters blow it again 
Florida newspaper asks question: 'Why do they bother?'

Two years ago, way under. Last year, way over. This year, still not right.

It's been a stormy few years for William Gray, Philip Klotzbach and other scientists who predict total hurricane activity before each season begins, which raises fundamental questions as the 2007 season draws to an end on Friday:

Why do they bother? And given the errors -- which can undermine faith in the entire hurricane warning system -- are these full-season forecasts doing more harm than good?

''The seasonal hurricane forecasters certainly have a lot of explaining to do,'' said Max Mayfield, former director of the National Hurricane Center.

''The last couple of years have humbled the seasonal hurricane forecasters and pointed out that we have a lot more to learn before we can do accurate seasonal forecasts,'' he said.

The numbers provide abundant support for those statements.

Just before the season started on June 1, the nationally prominent Gray-Klotzbach team at Colorado State University predicted that 17 named storms would grow into nine hurricanes, five of which would be particularly intense, with winds above 110 mph.

A different team at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicted 13 to 17 named storms, seven to 10 hurricanes and three to five intense hurricanes.

The actual results for the 2007 season: 14 named storms, five hurricanes, two intense hurricanes.

That turned a season predicted to be extremely active into one that was about average in number of storms and well below average in total intensity.

Even mid-season corrections issued by both teams in August -- somewhat akin to changing your prediction about a baseball game during the fifth inning -- proved wrong.

Their pre-season predictions in 2005 and 2006 were even worse.

The teams defend their forecasts, saying they are based on the best science available, were closer to the mark in prior years and serve an important public service.

''The seasonal forecasts are quite good,'' said Gerry Bell, NOAA's lead seasonal forecaster. ``Last year, we over-predicted and this year we over-predicted, but our track record, I think, is excellent.''

Klotzbach, who now is the lead forecaster of the Colorado State team created more than two decades ago, said long-range predictions satisfy the public's ``inherent curiosity.''

Both teams employ what they call ''climate signals'' -- a variety of ocean and atmospheric conditions -- along with historical records to produce their forecasts.

''Seasonal forecasts are meant to provide people with the best information possible about how active or inactive the coming season is likely to be,'' Klotzbach said.

Mayfield and virtually all hurricane researchers and forecasters, some of whom were skeptical years ago, now support the issuing of full-season predictions.

But many openly share concerns about the current system, focusing in particular on NOAA's tendency to subtly link the National Hurricane Center in West Miami-Dade County to the seasonal forecasts produced by Bell's team, which is based in Maryland.

In fact, it is important to emphasize the distinction between the six-month seasonal forecasts and the real-time forecasts of an actual hurricane or other tropical system, which are called ``operational forecasts.''

Several researchers at the hurricane center worked with Gray and contribute to the data collected by Bell's team, but the center's real-time forecasters play no substantive role in the full-season predictions and are not responsible for them.

CONCERN OVER IMPACT

Many of them worry, however, that substantial errors in those full-season predictions can undermine faith in their generally accurate forecasts of actual storms.

They note that NOAA, parent agency of the hurricane center and Bell's team, often releases Bell's predictions during pre-season news conferences conducted at the hurricane center.

During other years, the hurricane center's director is ordered to participate in the pre-season news conference, wherever it might be held.

''NOAA has been using the good name of the National Hurricane Center, at least to some extent, to help promote the seasonal product and that's not the mission of operational hurricane forecasters,'' Mayfield said.

''In some areas, hurricane forecasters are losing credibility even though they are not the lead on this -- and that's always a concern,'' he said. ``We don't want the credit for the seasonal forecasts.''

Bell said the differences between the two groups should be clear to the public by now. He said South Floridians and other residents of the hurricane zone should never disregard real-time forecasts, especially based on a misconception about the full-season predictions.

''There's no basis for those kinds of comments,'' Bell said, ``especially if they're made by people who don't know what they're talking about.''

Another concern focuses on the hyperactivity of the Gray-Klotzbach team, which issues not one, not two, but six forecasts before and during the season.

The first arrives in early December, forecasting the outcome of a hurricane season that doesn't begin for six months. Maintaining the baseball comparison, that would be like predicting -- this past October -- the Marlins' precise win-loss record in 2008.

''If Gray were honest, he would say they have no skill in making predictions that far in advance,'' said Jeff Masters, a former NOAA hurricane researcher who now serves as chief meteorologist of the Weather Underground. ``It's just an interesting mental exercise.''

Nevertheless, Masters also favors the issuing of seasonal forecasts.

''If you put good science in the hands of people, that's always a benefit,'' he said.

''But they should do a better job of educating the public about the uncertainty involved,'' Masters added. ``And they have to keep underscoring that you have to be prepared in any given year, whatever the forecast.''

That raises another issue.

Virtually everyone involved in the system agrees that seasonal forecasts provide opportunities to remind the public that it must prepare for the worst -- and that certainly works during the current period of generally heightened hurricane activity.

But what happens the next time the data suggest a comparatively mild season? How will the scientists handle that and might that information encourage people to let down their guard?

WHEREVER IT LEADS

The leaders of both teams say they are scientists and will go where the science takes them, regardless of where that might be.

''We believe, and I'm sure NOAA would agree, that people should not relax or pay less attention if we forecast an inactive season,'' Klotzbach said. ``Obviously, storms can make landfall and do major damage in inactive years. Just look at Hurricane Andrew in 1992 as an example of this.''

NOAA does agree.

''People have the right to know if we think it will be an above normal or below normal season,'' Bell said.

''But we always, always, impress on people that we cannot, on seasonal time scales, predict if a given locality is going to get hit, so they have to be ready,'' he said.

And what about the recent tendency to over-predict seasonal activity?

''Forecast activity was too high,'' Bell said. ``But gosh darn it, that's a good thing. We'll take it.''

[Soldier4Christ]

''The last couple of years have humbled the seasonal hurricane forecasters and pointed out that we have a lot more to learn before we can do accurate seasonal forecasts,'' he said.

The primary thing that they need to learn is that God is in control.

[Shammu]

Hurricane forecasters blow it again
Florida newspaper asks question: 'Why do they bother?'

Two years ago, way under. Last year, way over. This year, still not right.

Because they think their god. God is in control, not man.

[Soldier4Christ]

Deadly Midwest storm halts air, highway traffic
Freezing rain, flurries predicted for Iowa a day after wintry mix kills three

Forecasters predicted freezing rain and snow flurries in Iowa on Sunday, a day after snow and ice plastered the Midwest, disrupting airport and highway traffic and leaving at least three people dead.

Hundreds of flights were canceled at airports in Des Moines, Chicago and Milwaukee on Saturday, with officials closing Des Moines International Airport for several hours after a United Airlines plane slid off a taxiway as it headed to a runway for a flight to Chicago’s O’Hare. None of the 44 passengers was injured and the airport reopened by mid-afternoon.

At Dane County Regional Airport in Madison, Wis., an incoming Mesa Airlines regional jet flying for United Express slid off the pavement after failing to make a turn onto a taxiway, but no injuries were reported among the 25 passengers.

The National Weather Service had posted winter storm and ice warnings across parts of Nebraska, Iowa, Wisconsin, the eastern Dakotas, Illinois and northern Michigan, but many of the warnings were lifted later in the day. In Minnesota, Duluth received nearly 8 inches of snow.

Much of Iowa was hit by snow, sleet and freezing rain. Temperatures warmed to above freezing by Saturday evening, helping to melt away much of the ice and sleet that had accumulated, Ken Podrazik, a meteorologist with the service in Des Moines, said late Saturday.

Podrazik said some rain and freezing drizzle was expected early Sunday, turning to flurries later in the day. He said travel could remain troublesome because roads were expected to refreeze during the night. He also said gusty wind also could be a problem.

Madison had expected three inches of snow and wind gusts of up to 30 mph Saturday. The University of Wisconsin-Madison’s Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences department postponed its annual Solstice Party, which was set for Saturday, until February.

“This is the most treacherous kind of weather that the weather can deliver,” said department chairman Jonathan Martin.

The storm also complicated plans for some presidential hopefuls drumming up support for the Jan. 3 caucuses that kick off the nomination process.

Weather halts campaign stops
Republican Mitt Romney canceled three campaign stops planned Saturday in southern Iowa, and former President Clinton canceled a rally for his wife, Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton, scheduled Saturday afternoon outside Des Moines.

In the mountains of western Colorado, the storm dumped up to two feet of snow, bringing moisture to a region that had been thirsting for it. A half foot of snow in Beaver Creek forced organizers to postpone a men’s World Cup super-G skiing event from Saturday to Monday.

Eastbound Interstate 70 was closed for about three hours Saturday night leading up to Vail Pass in the mountains due to accidents on icy, snowpacked roads.

Heavy ice accumulations on power lines blacked out more than 14,000 customers scattered around Iowa, according to Alliant Energy and MidAmerican Energy. Thousands more were without power near Galesburg, Ill., Ameren spokesman Leigh Morris said.

In Indiana, a van carrying Purdue University’s ice hockey team rolled over on an ice-slickened highway about 20 miles southwest of West Lafayette, killing one team member and injuring seven others, school officials said.

A man died when his Jeep hit a semitrailer on a highway north of Madison, Wis., authorities said. Vehicles had been slowing after another semitrailer tipped on its side as the driver tried to exit the highway.

[Soldier4Christ]

Storm that killed 4 targets Midwest 
Washington, Oregon declare states of emergency

A storm that brought hurricane force winds and heavy rain to the Northwest of the United States, killing at least four, was en route to the Upper Midwest, which has already been hit with heavy snow and rain.

Many roads remained closed by downed trees and landslides in Oregon and Washington, communications were spotty at best and power remained out for thousands of residents after back-to-back storm fronts Sunday and Monday that were among the region's worst in recent memory.

The governors of Washington and Oregon declared states of emergency, which can speed relief efforts. Many schools and some government offices planned to close or stay closed Tuesday because of high water or power outages.

About 150 people were stranded at some point Monday across the region, said Washington Gov. Chris Gregoire. About half were rescued by Monday evening, many of them by boat, she said.

The storm should blanket the Midwest on Tuesday, with Ohio predicted to get several inches of snow, said Mike Dutter, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Cleveland.

The weather service said 3 to 6 inches of rain had fallen across much of western Washington.
Story continues below ↓advertisement

Storm turns deadly
By 10 p.m., six Coast Guard helicopters had hoisted 66 people from areas surrounded by water in Washington -- in some cases from rooftops, said Petty Officer Kelly Parker in Seattle.

More stiff winds were likely Tuesday in the Northwest, but nothing like the blasts that exceeded 120 mph at times Sunday and Monday.

At least two Oregon deaths were reported, including that of a 90-year-old woman who suffered a heart attack as she evacuated. The driver of a truck swept away by floodwaters in the same area also was reported dead.

In Washington, one man in Aberdeen died when a tree fell on him as he was trying to clear another downed tree. Another person died from an undetermined medical problem after power was lost, said Grays Harbor County sheriff's Detective Ed McGowan.

Thousands without power
Pacific Power reported 40,000 homes without power in Oregon, and it could be days before electricity is fully restored, the utility said. Transmission poles 100 feet tall were toppled, and large sections of lines lay on the ground.

"The ground is saturated from intensive rainfall and trees are leaning into power lines and dropping to the ground," the utility said in a statement.

More than 80,000 people lost power in Washington, Gov. Gregoire said.

Wind gusts of more than 100 mph were reported along the Oregon coast, with the highest reading at 129 mph at Bay City, the Weather Service said. Gusts hit 81 mph at Hoquiam, Wash., it said.

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Fatal storm spreads ice, snow across Northeast

Mudslides halted north-south Amtrak passenger train service between Eugene, Ore., and Vancouver, British Columbia, and flooding forced the indefinite closure of Interstate 5, the main route between Seattle and Portland. To the east, snowslides temporarily closed major Cascade Mountain passes carrying traffic on Interstate 90 and U.S. 2.

Most major roads in southwestern Washington's Grays Harbor and Pacific counties were closed, and virtually all roads into the coastal city of Aberdeen were cut off, officials said.

"In 30 years of law enforcement, it's as bad as I've ever seen," said Grays Harbor County Sheriff Michael J. Whelan, whose own truck was smashed in his driveway by a falling tree.

Telephone and other communications were so were so tenuous that it was impossible to determine how many people were forced out of their homes, said Abby Kershaw of Oregon Emergency Management.

[Shammu]

Blizzard Warning

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
1102 AM HST THU DEC 6 2007

HIZ028-071015-
/O.EXT.PHFO.BZ.W.0001.000000T0000Z-071207T2200Z/
BIG ISLAND SUMMITS-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...MAUNA LOA AND MAUNA KEA ABOVE 8000 FEET
1102 AM HST THU DEC 6 2007

...BLIZZARD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 12 PM HST FRIDAY...

THE BLIZZARD WARNING FOR THE BIG ISLAND SUMMITS IS EXTENDED UNTIL
12 PM HST FRIDAY.

SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 INCHES OR MORE ARE LIKELY...WITH SIGNIFICANT
DRIFTING SNOW. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW FREEZING WITH
WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S.

TRAVEL TO THE SUMMITS IS NOT RECOMMENDED.

A BLIZZARD WARNING MEANS THAT BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE IMMINENT OR
ALREADY OCCURRING.

Blizzard Warning

[Shammu]

I blame Global Warming...  Hawaii will be suing Al Gore over this.

Matthew 24

[Soldier4Christ]

lol  ...  Although that is funny such an occurrence is not unusual for that part of Hawaii. The location in which this blizzard is hitting has a Ski Club that is quite active this time of year. The mountain on which it is located is in excess of 13,000 ft and the snow line goes to at least 9,000 ft and sometimes much lower.

[Shammu]

lol  ...  Although that is funny such an occurrence is not unusual for that part of Hawaii. The location in which this blizzard is hitting has a Ski Club that is quite active this time of year. The mountain on which it is located is in excess of 13,000 ft and the snow line goes to at least 9,000 ft and sometimes much lower.

I know brother.................

I still blame Al Gore all that hot air, for "Global Warming." Gore should learn how to keep his mouth shut..............

[Shammu]

Cyclone batters Fiji island, no deaths: officials

Fri Dec 7, 5:18 PM ET

SUVA (AFP) - Much of the tiny Fiji island of Cikobia was flattened by devastating Cyclone Daman Saturday with most houses and vegetation destroyed, but its 69 villagers survived by hiding in caves, officials said.

Communications to the remote island on Fiji's northeastern border were knocked out in the storm but a brief radio telephone message confirmed all the villagers had been accounted for.

They were able to flee their homes before Daman made a direct hit about about 3:00 am (1530 GMT Friday) and took shelter in caves on the island.

Initial reports indicated there had been casualties but a nurse on Cikobia was able to get a message to Labasa Hospital on Vanua Levu island to confirm there were no serious injuries, the hospital Superintendent Ami Chand said.

As Daman, packing hurricane-force winds up to 260 kilometres an hour, bore down on Fiji on Friday, residents were forced to take shelter and tourists were evacuated from expensive resorts on outlying islands.

The storm, a category four on a five-point scale, was initially heading for Vanua Levu, Fiji's second largest island, before veering away and making a direct hit on Cikobia.

Although the worst of the storm was considered to have passed by dawn Saturday, residents across Fiji were warned of possible flash-floods in low-lying areas and coastal flooding at high tide.

Fiji is frequently hit by tropical cyclones in the summer months and Cikobia in particular is considered a "cyclone magnet," suffering direct or near-direct hits of Cyclones Kina in 1993, Gavin in 1997 and Ami in 2003.

The Nadi weather office in Fiji said Daman was slowly moving out of the Fiji group towards Tonga and on its present path was not expected to affect any other islands in the Fiji group.

Cyclone batters Fiji island, no deaths: officials

[Soldier4Christ]

Grand Forks sets weather record for third straight day...

For the third time in five days, Grand Forks has set a weather record.

Temperatures yesterday dropped to minus 19 degrees shattering the previous record low of 16 below set in 1972.

Grand Forks reported record snowfall on Saturday, with 6.4 inches, and on Tuesday, with just over 8 inches.

Weather officials expect an El Nino to influence North Dakota's winter weather pattern. During El Nino years, the winter tends to be slightly colder with more snow than average.



Snow sets more records in Grand Forks, Fargo

More snowfall records in eastern North Dakota.

The National Weather Service says the Grand Forks airport had 8.1 inches of snow yesterday, setting a record for the date. And Fargo set a record with 5.9 inches.

The previous mark in both cities was set back in 1926.

Grand Forks and Fargo also had record snowfall last Saturday.

Today's forecast calls for a chance of light snow in the west and flurries in central North Dakota, and a little snow overnight in the east. The southwest could get some freezing rain tonight.

Further down the road the National Weather Service says southern North Dakota could get up to two inches of snow on Saturday. And colder weather is moving in, with low temperatures on Saturday dropping to the teens below zero in some regions.

Major Ice Storm Pounding Central U.S.

A major winter storm is already affecting travel across parts of the Central U.S., and its effects could linger for days.

As of Saturday morning, freezing drizzle and rain was falling across most of the state of Kansas, with road conditions rapidly deteriorating.

Dozens of traffic accidents have been reported in Kansas City, where the roadways were already coated with a thin glaze of ice.

Conditions were about the same in Wichita, where the city’s police department was asking drivers only to report accidents with injuries or serious damage.

The wintry weather extended into Missouri, where travelers along I-70 between St. Louis and Kansas City encountered slick roads.

Although the precipitation in St. Louis was falling as rain, a change over to freezing rain is expected by Saturday night.

The wintry weather could last through Monday across the region, with parts of Kansas and Missouri receiving over an inch of accumulating ice.

Parts of Oklahoma could see the freezing rain start as early as Sunday, with wintry weather lasting through mid-week.

In addition to hazardous travel conditions, the ice storm is expected to cause power outages as ice weighs down trees and power lines.


_____________

I wonder how soon global warming is going to usher in the next ice age?    Looks like it might be soon.

[Shammu]

I wonder how soon global warming is going to usher in the next ice age?    Looks like it might be soon.

I remember back in the 70's when all the talk was about the ice age coming soon.

[Soldier4Christ]

Yep, me too. We were getting a lot if ice, snow and real cold temps for about 10 years straight.