Middle East stands on the brink of wider conflict
Liz Sly, Christine Spolar and Cam Simpson
July 15, 2006 12:46 PM
Chicago Tribune
(MCT)
Once again, Lebanon is burning. Once again, rockets are raining down on northern Israel. Once again, the region that has seen war erupt on average every six years since 1948 stands on the brink of conflagration, yet this one could engulf the entire Middle East.
As Israel presses its offensive against the Iranian-backed Hezbollah movement deep into Lebanese territory and Hezbollah defiantly launches missiles back over the border, U.S. and Lebanese officials are predicting no early end to a crisis that many fear could rapidly escalate out of control.
With their act of bravado in seizing two Israeli soldiers last week, Hezbollah's guerrillas unleashed a volatile brew of competing agendas, sectarian rivalries and unresolved hostilities that extend far beyond the borders of tiny Lebanon, to include Iran, Syria, the Palestinian territories and the fate of U.S. involvement in Iraq.
''The situation in the Middle East can get out of control very quickly. What seems like a border flare-up can turn into a regional conflict in a matter of days,'' said Michael Oren, a military historian and senior fellow at the Shalem Center, a Jerusalem academic institute.
''I think this can be seen as the beginning of a regional conflict,'' he added. How can you stop it? There doesn't seem to be a diplomatic option.''
The clashes escalated for a third straight day Friday, with Israeli bombs leveling the Hezbollah leader's home and office in crowded southern Beirut and Hezbollah striking an Israeli gunboat off the coast. The violence has dominated President Bush's weekend discussions with leaders of the Group of Eight nations in Russia.
This is not yet a regional war. But in the scope and intensity of Israel's strikes deep into Lebanese territory, the conflict has moved far beyond the usual cross-border spats that regularly embroil Israeli soldiers and Hezbollah guerrillas.
Israel has hinted that Syria could be next unless Hezbollah is restrained. Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmedinejad has warned that an attack on Syria will be viewed as an attack on Iran. Hezbollah has declared that it is ready for ''open war.''
Bush, while calling for Israeli restraint, has declined to call for a cease-fire. That has suggested to some in the region a willingness to let the conflict roll with the chance that it could bloody Hezbollah's nose and, by default, Iran's.
Lebanese officials in Beirut say they believe the United States is unlikely to press for a cease-fire, as the current fighting could weaken the position of Hezbollah and, by proxy, Syria and Iran, according to a senior Lebanese diplomat.
The danger, however, is that Hezbollah will feel pressured to respond with greater force, further escalating the crisis, and possibly drawing Israel into strikes against Syria or Iran, the diplomat said.
In Washington, a senior State Department official, speaking on condition of anonymity, also said the U.S. was disinclined to seek a cease-fire ''because the Israelis have made it abundantly clear that that's not what they're going to do.''
Instead, he warned that the situation could worsen significantly in the coming days. A ''fairly long and drawn-out process'' lies ahead, he said.
But conflicts in the Middle East have a habit of not only dragging on but also spiraling and this one could easily take on dangerous new proportions, analysts warn.
In Tehran, most ordinary Iranians are convinced that Hezbollah's move was timed to ease pressure on Iran and its nuclear program at the G8 summit and at the United Nations Security Council later this week, said Babak Rahimi, who is on the Iranian and Islamic studies staff at the University of California, San Diego and is currently visiting Tehran.
''That's the rumor here, that the timing of this is not a coincidence,'' he said.
However, the ferocity of Israel's response has caught Iranians off guard, in turn fuelling the convictions of hard-liners who believe U.S. pressure on Iran's nuclear program is just a prelude to an inevitable attack against Iran. ''They're saying this nuclear stuff is just a ploy, and that what is happening shows that their true intention is to attack us down the road,'' Rahimi said.
But pressing the fight against Hezbollah represents a dangerous gamble not only for Israel but for the United States.
One risk is that Lebanon will fragment, reigniting the civil war that ravaged the country for 15 years, and further destabilizing the region. The new government of Prime Minister Fuad Saniora is fractured, weak and in no position to act to restrain Hezbollah.
Notably, this is the same democratically elected government that was hailed last year by U.S. officials after the dramatic Cedar Revolution forced the withdrawal of Syrian troops from Lebanon.
For the U.S., there is the additional risk of a backlash in Iraq, where the Israeli assault on Shiite Hezbollah has angered many Iraqis and the radical Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr has emerged as one of the most formidable political and military figures in the newly installed and still fragile Shiite-led coalition government.
In visits to Tehran and Damascus earlier this year, al-Sadr pledged the service of his private militia in support of ''any Arab government'' that was attacked by the United States, a remark widely interpreted as a threat to stage another Shiite uprising in Iraq.
''You will see an increase of radicalism in Iran, in Lebanon, and most definitely in Iraq,'' predicted Rahimi. ''I'm sure Muqtada Sadr is enjoying all of this very much.''
There is also a risk for Hezbollah that its bravado could backfire. Its stature as the only militia permitted to carry arms under the terms of the cease-fire agreement that ended Lebanon's civil war is predicated on its role as the defender against Israeli aggression. And the latest clashes with Israel have given Hezbollah the opportunity to assert that role.
But as Lebanese contemplate the prospect of yet another war, some are starting to question the wisdom of allowing the militia to operate unchecked along the Israeli border
''Most Lebanese view Hezbollah's latest operation as a dangerous gamble,'' said an editorial in the Beirut Daily Star. ''Although they do not have much sympathy for the Israelis, who destroyed their country during a brutal invasion and occupation, they do fear Israel's signature brand of retaliation - collective punishment - at a time when their country is already passing through a period of instability.''
In a commentary in the pan-Arab Al-Hayat newspaper, retired Lebanese army Gen. Elias Hanna went further. ''Where is the deterrence if Israel is replying militarily and on this scale with such tactical and operational freedom?'' he asked. ''The future of Hezbollah and its credibility are based on its ability to deter the enemy.''
Hezbollah also has won little support so far from Arab governments that have been increasingly unnerved by the empowerment of the Shiite majority in Iraq as a result of the U.S.-backed democratization project there, and the increased leverage that has given Iran in the region.
Arab condemnations of the Israeli onslaught have been at best lukewarm. And at the White House, spokesman Tony Snow took the unusual step of quoting directly from a Saudi Arabian statement on the conflict.
A ''distinction must be made between legitimate resistance (by Palestinians) and uncalculated adventures undertaken by elements inside Lebanon and those behind them without recourse to the legal authorities and consulting and coordinating with Arab nations,'' according to the statement, which was released by the official state news agency, SPA.
''These elements should bear the responsibility for their irresponsible actions and they alone should end the crisis they have created,'' it said.
''People are criticizing Hezbollah more than in the past,'' said Robert Malley, Middle East Program director of the Brussels-based International Crisis Group. ''There are people pointing out that this is not an Arab cause. This is a Persian-Shia cause.''
Syria too has been uncharacteristically silent in the face of Israel's onslaught against the country it has historically regarded as its protege.
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''Every Israeli action against Arabs feeds Arab anger against the U.S., and undermines its influence,'' he said. ''Regardless of any cease-fires or short-term outcomes, Hezbollah, Iran, Syria, Islamist extremists like al-Qaida, and Iraqi hard-liners like Sadr can play a spoiler role at any time, and broaden the conflict at minimal risk.''
Middle East stands on the brink of wider conflict
