Gary Halbert, a conservative who voted for Bush, has published an interesting article (
http://www.investorsinsight.com/forecasts_va_print.aspx?EditionID=314) claiming that:
the polling data back in early February was surprisingly favorable for the GOP.
Well that's all changed -- amazingly, in less than three short months -- and there is now the possibility that the Democrats could retake the House of Representatives, and maybe even pick up a couple of Senate seats as well.
That's right. Bush II is in a stall and they can't seem to get the nose up. Almost every major issue that the administration is involved in has become an albatross.
The GOP's trump card has long been national security. The Dubai ports deal single-handedly derailed national security as a solid GOP issue.
In 2004, Bush carried AL, AK, AZ, FL, IN, MO, MT, NC, TN, and TX -- 10 states by wide margins of 6% to 10% or even more. Based on the latest polling data, Bush would win NONE of these states.
According to the latest polls, if the presidential election were held today, Bush would reliably receive only around 23 electoral votes, versus the 286 electoral votes he received in 2004 when he defeated John Kerry.
The latest polling data suggests the GOP will hold their majority in the Senate, but the Democrats will gain two seats, one in Montana and one in Pennsylvania
Now, in the worst-case scenario for the Democrats, it looks as if the Dems will gain at least four seats in the House.
the best-case scenario for the Democrats is a 15-seat pick-up.
Along this same line, in my view, it is not a matter of conservatives abandoning the GOP; in fact, it's just the opposite -- the GOP has abandoned conservatives.
The other question is, how many conservatives will simply stay home and not vote?
there is little doubt that this mid-term election cycle is going to be a close, drawn-out, bloody mess
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