Prophecy, Drought, Earthquakes, Famine, Pestilence, War, and Strange Weather.

[Soldier4Christ]

Another Typhoon hits Taiwan and China. Taiwan experiences an earthquake at the same time. It is also a very busy Typhoon season this year. Eaiwan has not fully recovered from a typoon that hit there less than a week ago.

Typhoon, minor quake strike Taiwan

TAIPEI, Taiwan, Oct. 2 (UPI) -- Typhoon Longwang struck Taiwan Sunday, but only after a moderate earthquake shook the island.

CNN quoted local media as saying 36 people were injured in the storm, though no one was injured in the 5.4 magnitude quake.

The typhoon made landfall early Sunday with gusts topping 125 mph and heavy rains.

The storm shut down public transportation, and forecasters said up to 16 inches of rain fell along the northern and central portions of the eastern coast of the island, CNN said.

Longwang -- which means "dragon king" in Chinese -- was expected to hit the mainlaid after crossing the Taiwan Strait.

[Soldier4Christ]

UK's Silent Epidemic, Hepatitis C Expected to Kill 150,000

Up to 150,000 people in Britain are expected to die over the next 20 years from a treatable disease that most do not know they have.
A silent epidemic of hepatitis C, a blood-borne virus, has infected an estimated 500,000 people in the UK and new cases are rising faster here than in other European countries, specialists said yesterday.

Typical victims of the illness are middle-class professional men and women who dabbled in drugs in their youth and contracted the infection through sharing needles. Other people became infected through contaminated blood transfusions before testing for hepatitis C was introduced in 1991.

The disease is already the main reason for liver transplants, and it will kill more people than Aids by 2020.

The scale of the problem has been recognised by the Government, which published an action plan to tackle it last year. But in a report published yesterday, the Hepatitis C Trust, a charity for sufferers, said that Britain was at the bottom of the European league on treatment, with fewer than 2 per cent of cases receiving drugs, compared with 15 per cent in France.

Drug treatment costs £6,000 to £12,000 per case, and cures more than half of sufferers. It has been approved for use on the NHS by the National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence (Nice), but the disease has no symptoms in its early stages and only one in 10 sufferers knows they are infected.

Charles Gore, chief executive of the Hepatitis C Trust, which produced the report, Losing the Fight Against Hepatitis C, said: "We have a dreadfully poor track record at diagnosing the disease. More than 400,000 people in the UK with the virus are completely unaware that they have been infected. As a consequence, they are not in a position to make lifestyle decisions that could reduce liver damage, and may inadvertently be putting others at risk of infection."

The disease can be spread through sharing needles in drug use or tattooing, snorting cocaine through a shared straw or banknote (the drug irritates the mucosal lining of the nose, making it bleed), sharing razors or toothbrushes, rarely through sex, and in childbirth (one in 20 infected mothers passes it to her baby).

Up to 30 per cent of those infected will suffer severe symptoms caused by chronic inflammation of the liver, including cirrhosis, liver cancer, and death over two or three decades.

William Rosenberg, professor of hepatology at the University of Southampton, said: "My hepatitis C clinic is full of lawyers, doctors, accountants and shopkeepers - responsible, professional middle-class people - who in their teens in the 1960s dabbled occasionally in drugs, for example by taking speed at weekends.

"There has been a major failure in the UK to address a public health epidemic. In France they diagnose five times more cases and treat 10 times more than we do. It is the same in Germany, Italy and Spain. Awareness of the problem is woefully low in the UK. Probably over 150,000 people in the UK will die unless they are treated."

The disease carried a stigma because of its association with drug use, he said. "That prejudice is very common. It is perceived as a low-life disease. People who are leading upstanding lives in the community with hepatitis C don't want to speak out about it, in the same way as people with cancer felt stigmatised 20 to 30 years ago."

Drug treatment with interferon and ribavirin can clear the virus from 40 to 80 per cent of patients, the report says.

Neil Hudson, 35: 'I was lucky I was diagnosed by accident'

Neil Hudson, 35, had to fight for treatment after discovering he was infected with hepatitis C during a routine test in 1999.

He contracted the virus through a blood transfusion nine years earlier when he was 20, seriously ill with pneumonia and septicaemia.

In intensive care and fighting for his life, he received 164 units of blood, one of which was contaminated with the virus. "I had to wait four months to see a liver specialist. I felt very isolated. I changed my diet, stopped drinking alcohol and made sure I had enough rest. In March 2000, seven months after finding out I had a fatal illness, I had a liver biopsy [test] which confirmed that the damage to my liver warranted treatment."

He then had to wait for the National Institute for Clinical Excellence to approve drug treatment with interferon. He wrote letters to his health authority and MP but they refused to sanction treatment before the NICE decision in January 2001.

His first round of treatment failed to clear the virus from his blood and he had to wait another 15 months before being offered a second chance with a different form of the drug. The second round of treatment finished in June 2004 and tests showed he was free of the virus earlier this year.

He said: "I was lucky I was diagnosed by accident. I feel better now at 35 than I did at 25 because I had this disease eating away at my liver day by day. We have inferior treatment in this country. We should be ... preventing the spread of hepatitis C, but we are not."

[Soldier4Christ]

Global dengue pandemic alert as mosquito mutates

THE world is seeing an explosion in dengue infections as the virus-carrying Aedes mosquito adapts to cities and grows immune to old methods of population control.

"It's a global pandemic," said Dr Duane Gubler of the Asia-Pacific Institute of Tropical Diseases in Hawaii. "It's quite clear that the disease has evolved. There just is more dengue in the world."

Dengue causes severe joint pain, high fever, nausea and a rash. It can lead to internal bleeding. There is no cure or vaccine.

All across Asia, governments are scrambling to contain the virus, with Singapore alone recording more than 11,000 cases this year.

"Guerrilla" mosquitoes were the world's new enemy, said Dr Paul Reiter of the Pasteur Institute in France. He and Dr Gubler were among seven experts invited by Singapore's Ministry of Health to investigate the city-state's current spike in infections.

[Shammu]

El Salvador volcano kills two, thousands flee
Sat Oct 1, 2005 11:35 PM ET9

 By Rene Tobar

PALO CAMPANA, El Salvador (Reuters) - El Salvador's largest volcano erupted for the first time in a century on Saturday, killing two people and forcing thousands to flee their homes.

The Ilamatepec volcano, also known as Santa Ana, hurled out hot rocks, ash and boiling water on Saturday morning and a massive plume of smoke rose more than 10 miles into the air.

Two people were killed under a landslide caused by the volcano's eruption in the small community of Palo Campana, near the crater, the government said.

A few homes were destroyed. "I have lost everything. I have no money, nothing, just my children and my husband," said 73-year-old Rosa Flores, whose small home was set ablaze by a red-hot rock as she made breakfast.

A 12-year-old boy, Fernando Gonzalez, was desperately looking for his parents. "I'm scared. I saw big stones fall and one had smoke coming from it."

El Salvador's government declared a red alert and evacuated more than 4,000 people by late afternoon with 3,000 more expected to be moved out.

"The important thing is to save people, that is the first phase of this emergency," President Tony Saca told reporters.

Ilamatepec is the largest of El Salvador's 23 volcanoes and stands 7,800 feet above sea level in a major coffee-growing area about 40 miles west of the capital.

Its last eruption was in 1904 but it has been increasingly active since last year.

Homes and vehicles were covered in a thick layer of ash, and some of the area's coffee plantations were damaged.

"Many trees have been burned, for sure," said Sergio Gil, who leads the Procafe coffee institute. "It is a delicate situation, the ashes have reached as far as Apaneca, about 25 kilometers (15 miles) from the crater."

The coffee-growing region around Ilamatepec accounts for a large chunk of El Salvador's coffee output.

The nearby city of Santa Ana escaped damage from the volcanic eruption.

(Additional reporting by Alberto Barrera in San Salvador)

El Salvador volcano kills two, thousands flee

[Soldier4Christ]

Ethiopian volcano erupts again
04/10/2005 18:07  - (SA)  

Addis Ababa - An 11th earthquake, measuring 4.2 on the Richter scale, jolted northern Ethiopia on Tuesday, triggering another eruption of the previously dormant Mount Arteale, which has been spewing lava for several days, geologists said.

The quake, which struck the remote region of Afar, about 980km northeast of the capital, is the 11th temblor to rumble across the region since last month, they said.

"A quake, measuring 4.2 on the Richter scale, occurred in Teru (in Afar) and was followed by volcanic eruption," said Manahlo Belachew, an expert in the seismology department of Addis Ababa University.

"Quakes and eruptions have been monitored since September 18 at a small scale," he added.

amage

On September 24, a quake measuring 5.5 on the Richter scale caused the same volcano to erupt.

The earthquakes have damaged roads in the region's Teru and Dubti districts, making transportation difficult in a region largely inhabited by salt-mining Afar pastoralists, Ethiopian News Agency reported.

The only active volcano in Ethiopia has been largely dormant for the past six decades, but has been spewing molten lava since a series of earthquakes began rattling the region on September 18.

Large portions of Mount Arteale's slopes and its surrounding areas are covered in a thick blanket of ash and plumes of smoke, resulting in the displacement of more than 50 000 Afar nomadics and the death of hundreds of livestock.

"This may complicate the plan for relocation and resettlements of affected people as the quake and volcano eruption is expanding or stretching further in all directions," Manahlo added.

Experts have said the tremors and eruptions are being caused by the expansion of tectonic plates under the Great Rift Valley, an area considered to be highly susceptible to earthquakes and volcanic activity.

[Soldier4Christ]

Strong earthquake rattles Indonesia's Aceh
Wednesday, 05 October , 2005, 02:19
Jakarta: An earthquake measuring 5.5 on the Richter scale rocked the Indonesian province of Aceh but caused no damage or casualties.

The earthquake struck at 5:09 am (2209 GMT Monday) on Tuesday and was centered 60 kilometres under the seabed and 68 kilometres southwest of the Acehnese capital Banda Aceh, said the Meteorology and Geophysics Agency in Jakarta.

The agency said the tremblor was felt quite strongly in Banda Aceh but caused no casulaties or damage.

Indonesia sits on the so-called Pacific Rim of Fire, where the meeting of continental plates causes high volcanic and seismic activity.

A 9.3-magnitude quake off the west coast of Aceh on Sumatra island triggered the December 26 tsunamis that left at least 217,000 people dead around the Indian Ocean, including 131,000 in Aceh alone.

[Soldier4Christ]

Earthquake hits Great Nicobar Islands


      
Port Blair, Oct 4 (PTI) An earthquake of moderate intensity shook the Great Nicobar Islands in the wee hours today.
The temblor, measuring 5.3 on the Richter Scale hit the region at 03:39 a.M., a Met department statement said.

The epicentre of the quake was at 6.4 degrees north on the Latitude and 93.6 degrees east on the longitude.

[Shammu]

Hurricane Stan Slams Into Mexico's Gulf

By MIGUEL HERNANDEZ, Associated Press Writer 2 hours, 1 minute ago

VERACRUZ, Mexico - Hurricane Stan slammed into Mexico's Gulf coast Tuesday, forcing authorities to close one of the nation's busiest ports and spawning related storms across the region that left at least 66 people dead, most from landslides in
El Salvador.

Stan, which whipped up maximum sustained winds of 80 mph before weakening to a tropical storm, came ashore along a sparsely populated stretch of coastline south of Veracruz, a major port 185 miles east of Mexico City.

The storm's outer bands swiped the city, knocking down trees and flooding low-lying neighborhoods, authorities said. State officials said four people were injured, including a child, but gave no details.

All three of Mexico's Gulf coast crude-oil loading ports were closed Tuesday as a precaution, authorities said, but the shutdowns were not expected to affect oil prices.

Meteorologists said Stan was driving separate storms across Central America and southern Mexico, provoking flooding and landslides. Some 49 people had been killed during two days of flooding in El Salvador, Interior Secretary Rene Figueroa said Tuesday night. Nine people died in Nicaragua, including six people believed to be Ecuadorean migrants killed when their boat ran ashore.

Four deaths were reported in Honduras and three in Guatemala. In Costa Rica, a 36-year-old woman was killed when her home was buried by a landslide early Tuesday.

In Mexico's southern state of Chiapas, a river overflowed its banks and roared through the city of Tapachula, carrying away ramshackle homes of wood and metal.

Chiapas Gov. Pablo Salazar said four people were missing and could have been swept away. He said 600 families had been evacuated from homes around Tapachula, near the Guatemalan border. Three bridges in the area were destroyed by floodwaters.

"Sadly, we know it's going to keep raining," Salazar said.

At Chachalacas beach, 20 miles north of Veracruz, Celestino Criollo struggled amid rising winds and intermittent rains to clear equipment from his beach-side, thatched-roof seafood restaurant.

Criollo said the storm's rapid approach had caught many beach dwellers by surprise.

"We knew it would be strong and the tide high, but we didn't think it would come this quick," he said. "They advised us, but they could have done it sooner."

Rain was falling Tuesday in much of Central America, forcing thousands from their homes. Among those evacuated were residents of San Salvador's Santa Tecla neighborhood, where an earthquake-triggered landslide in January 2001 killed some 500 people.

Officials have worried the mountain running alongside the neighborhood might collapse again with heavy rains or another quake.

Honduras and Mexico offered to send aid to El Salvador, if needed.

In the southern state of Oaxaca, also affected by heavy rains and wind, officials opened 950 shelters and were keeping an eye on 80 communities considered to be vulnerable.

In Veracruz, schools canceled classes and officials at a nearby nuclear power plant had readied the facility for the category 1 hurricane's strong winds and rains. Flooding washed out at least one major highway.

Some 38,000 people abandoned their homes statewide and stayed in some of the 2,000 shelters set up all along the coastline.

The closed crude-oil loading ports — Coatzacoalcos, Dos Bocas and Cayo Arcas — handle most of the 1.8 million barrels a day of crude oil exported by state-owned oil monopoly Petroleos Mexicanos, or Pemex.

Five exploratory oil platforms also were evacuated, but so far the storm had not affected the company's production of 3.4 million barrels a day of crude oil, Mexico's Communications and Transportation Department said. Pemex is the world's third-largest oil producer, and most of its exports are sent to the United States.

Before reaching the Gulf, Stan raced across the Yucatan peninsula on Sunday, buffeting the region with wind and rain, but apparently causing no major damage.

Hurricane Stan Slams Into Mexico's Gulf

Note; We are seeing more of this kind of things. Happening more, and more, in this last year. Then in previous years, Drought, Earthquakes, Famine, Pestilence, War, and Strange Weather.

[Shammu]

Firefighters Battle Calif. Fires, Wind

1 hour, 32 minutes ago

LOS ANGELES - Firefighters were on high alert Tuesday as winds gusting up to 50 mph threatened to flare up hot spots from three Southern California wildfires.

The winds and forecasts of low humidity prompted the National Weather Service to issue a red flag warning until Wednesday afternoon. The warning advises that conditions could lead to explosive fire growth.

The region's largest blaze, at more than 24,000 acres on the border of Los Angeles and Ventura counties, was fully contained, officials with the California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection said. The blaze destroyed three homes.

Inspector Ron Haralson of the Los Angeles County Fire Department said he was worried about the weather forecast.

"You have to have a watchful eye over the whole area right now," he said.

Firefighters surrounded a 1,100-acre fire in rugged terrain in the hills above Burbank, said Capt. Ron Bell of the Burbank Fire Department. Crews remained on the scene to tamp down hot spots from the blaze that started Thursday.

In San Bernardino County, a 935-acre fire was 85 percent contained, said Carol Beckley, spokeswoman for the U.S. Forest Service.

The fire was burning in steep, rugged terrain in and around San Bernardino National Forest, about 70 miles east of Los Angeles.

Firefighters Battle Calif. Fires, Wind

[Shammu]

Ten people dead as mystery virus hits Toronto home
Tue Oct 4, 2005 6:44 PM ET163

By Matthew Chung

TORONTO (Reuters) - Ten people have died from a mystery viral outbreak at a Toronto nursing home and another 40 are in hospital, public health officials said on Tuesday as they raced to contact anyone who visited the home recently.

The outbreak, an unidentified respiratory virus, has sparked memories of the SARS outbreak two years ago that killed 44 people in Canada's largest city.

But health officials said the latest outbreak, which was first detected on September 25, is under control although they warned that more deaths could be expected.

Four new deaths were added to the toll on Tuesday, all of them elderly residents at the Seven Oaks Home for the Aged. All of the dead were aged between 50 years to 95 years.

"Although the condition of some ill residents has worsened and unfortunately four more have died, others are improving and we are confident this outbreak is under control," said David McKeown, Toronto's medical health officer.

"Given the age of the population...it's not at all unexpected to see more deaths."

Health officials have ruled out SARS, avian flu and influenza and are awaiting lab results.

But McKeown said it is possible they may never be able to identify the virus, which has infected 70 residents at the home as well as 12 employees and two visitors.

Forty people have been put into isolation in hospital. Residents with less severe symptoms are recovering at the nursing home which is closed to visitors and new patients.

Hospitals and emergency rooms were operating normally but medical staff at hospitals with infected patients are donning gowns, masks and gloves when handling patients.

Ten people dead as mystery virus hits Toronto home

[Shammu]

WHO sees 'global epidemic' of chronic disease
Tue Oct 4, 2005 8:10 PM ET

 By Stephanie Nebehay

GENEVA (Reuters) - Developing countries can tackle a "global epidemic" of chronic disease by adopting cheap measures that have helped cut heart disease deaths in some rich nations by up to 70 percent, the World Health Organization (WHO) said.

In a report published on Wednesday, the WHO said nearly half of all deaths from heart disease, cancer, respiratory infections, strokes and diabetes -- to which about 35 million people will succumb this year -- were preventable.

The report, "Preventing Chronic Diseases -- a Vital Investment", said developing countries, where most such deaths occur, must copy Western nations by discouraging tobacco use and curbing salt, sugar and saturated fats in food.

"Today we have a major epidemic and we know that if nothing is done, it will evolve rapidly and even more dramatically," Catherine Le Gales-Camus, WHO assistant director-general of non-communicable disease, told a news briefing.

The WHO, a United Nations agency, said its goal was to prevent the deaths of 36 million people by 2015, by reducing death rates from chronic disease by 2 percent each year.

"It is achievable. We want to stop people dying at an early age, prematurely and painfully, from a preventable condition," said Robert Beaglehole, WHO's director of chronic diseases and health promotion.

Eighty percent of all heart disease, stroke and type 2 diabetes cases, and over 40 percent of cancer cases, could be prevented, the report said.

Chronic disease also has a huge economic impact. The WHO estimates that such illnesses will cost China $558 billion over the next decade, the Russian Federation $303 billion and India $237 billion.

Low and middle income countries, where the epidemic is worst, need to look to the example of industrialized nations. Some 80 percent of deaths from chronic diseases occur in developing countries, and half are women.

"There is a very pervasive misunderstanding that chronic diseases affect only wealthy men in wealthy countries," Beaglehole said.

Alerting the public to the dangers of high cholesterol levels or blood pressure have paid off in Western countries, the report said. Heart disease death rates have fallen by up to 70 percent in the last three decades in Australia, Britain, Canada and the United States.

Poland lowered death rates among young adults by 10 percent per year in the 1990s at low cost, mainly by ensuring fruits and vegetables were available and by removing subsidies on butter which made it competitive with healthier vegetable oils, according to Beaglehole.

Over one billion people worldwide are overweight or obese -- putting them at risk of deadly heart disease --- and the figure could rise to 1.5 billion in a decade, the report warned.

About 22 million children under age five are overweight.

Child obesity was "a number one public health problem," and talks are scheduled next week with the food and beverage industry to discuss a "plan of action", Le Gales-Camus said.

"Reports of type 2 diabetes in children and adolescents -- previously unheard of -- have begun to mount worldwide," the WHO report said, referring to a form of the disease previously known as adult-onset diabetes.

Wang Longde, China's vice-minister of health, said in an introduction to the report: "We have an obesity epidemic, with more than 20 percent of our 7-17 year old children in urban centers tipping the scales as either overweight or obese".

WHO sees 'global epidemic' of chronic disease

Believe it or not, I am not looking for these. They are reaching out, and slapping me in the face saying Look.  So as brother Tom says, KEEP LOOKING UP!

[Soldier4Christ]

Tropical Storm Tammy follows Florida coast
05 Oct 2005 15:55:38 GMT
Source: Reuters
(Updates storm position, movement throughout)

MIAMI, Oct 5 (Reuters) - The 19th tropical storm of an unusually active Atlantic hurricane season formed north of the Bahamas on Wednesday and was expected to dump heavy rain on Florida and Georgia as it hit the U.S. East Coast.

Tropical Storm Tammy took shape near the same area where hurricanes Katrina and Rita formed over the past two months, but it was not expected to steer into the Gulf of Mexico nor to become a hurricane.

At 11 a.m. (1500 GMT), Tammy was about 40 miles (64 km) north-northeast of Cape Canaveral, the base for NASA's space shuttle fleet, and about 130 miles (208 km) southeast of Jacksonville, said the U.S. National Hurricane Center in Miami.

The storm was moving north at 14 mph (22 kph). It was traveling almost parallel to the Florida coast and was expected to move ashore over northeast Florida and Georgia by Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds had reached 40 mph (65 kph) and Tammy could bring up to 5 inches (13 cm) of rainfall to north Florida, southeast Georgia and parts of the Carolinas. Rainfall could reach 10 inches (25 cm) in places, the hurricane center said.

The 2005 Atlantic hurricane season, which runs from June to the end of November, has been one of the deadliest in U.S. history, and the costliest in terms of insured damages.

Hurricane Katrina killed more than 1,100 people after coming ashore over Louisiana and Mississippi on Aug. 29 and flooding the city of New Orleans. Rita added to the misery.

Climate experts say the Atlantic has swung into a period of heightened storm activity that could last another 20 years.

[Soldier4Christ]

This system, according to TV sources, is expected to turn into a hurricane no later than Mon, Oct 10th.


Weather system near Bahamas could become depression

From staff and wire reports

A low-pressure weather system over the Bahamas is expected to begin its crawl over Florida late today, bringing gusty weather and possibly dumping five to seven inches of rain over the region through Saturday.

A hurricane hunter reconnaissance plane was scheduled to fly this morning into the system, which on Monday became more organized near the central Bahamas, the National Hurricane Center said.

Vertical wind shear -- the winds that can sometimes rip up a storm before it intensifies -- is expected to weaken today, said Richard Pasch, a forecaster at the National Hurricane Center.

He said the system could strengthen into a tropical depression.

But Pasch stressed it was too soon to pinpoint a precise track or timeline for intensification.

"It certainly has the possibility to become a tropical cyclone; it could even become one as it approaches South Florida," he said. "There are a lot of possibilities."

It's not known yet what effect the system could have on the coastal Carolinas. The area already is forecast to have a soggy week, according to the National Weather Service.

There's a 30 percent chance of rain today, increasing to 50 percent by Wednesday night and 70 percent by Thursday. The likelihood of rain drops to 60 percent Friday and 30 percent Saturday.

Highs locally will be in the low 80s through Friday. Highs Saturday through Monday will be in the mid-70s, with nightly lows in the upper 50s.

[Soldier4Christ]

Security fears as flu virus that killed 50 million is recreated

Ian Sample, science correspondent
Thursday October 6, 2005
The Guardian

Scientists have recreated the 1918 Spanish flu virus, one of the deadliest ever to emerge, to the alarm of many researchers who fear it presents a serious security risk.

Undisclosed quantities of the virus are being held in a high-security government laboratory in Atlanta, Georgia, after a nine-year effort to rebuild the agent that swept the globe in record time and claimed the lives of an estimated 50 million people.

The genetic sequence is also being made available to scientists online, a move which some fear adds a further risk of the virus being created in other labs.

The recreation was carried out in an attempt to understand what made the 1918 outbreak so devastating. Reporting in the journal Science, a team lead by Dr Jeffery Taubenberger at the Armed Forces Institute of Pathology in Maryland shows that the recreated virus is extremely effective. When injected into mice, it quickly took hold and they started to lose weight rapidly, shedding 13% of their original weight in just two days. Within six days, all mice injected with the virus had died.

In a comparison experiment, similar mice were injected with a contemporary strain of flu, and although the mice lost weight initially, they recovered. Tests revealed that the Spanish flu virus multiplied so rapidly that after four days, mice contained 39,000 times more flu virus than those injected with the more common strain of flu.

The government and military researchers who reconstructed the virus say their work has already provided invaluable insight into its unique genetic make-up and helps explain its lethality. But other researchers warned yesterday the that virus could escape from the laboratory. "This will raise clear questions among some as to whether they have really created a biological weapon," said Professor Ronald Atlas at the centre for deterrence of biowarfare and bioterrorism at the University of Louisville in Kentucky.

Publication of the work and the filing of the virus's genetic make-up to an online database followed an emergency meeting last week by the US National Science Advisory Board for Biosecurity, which concluded that the benefits of publishing the work outweighed the risks. Many scientists remained sceptical. "Once the genetic sequence is publicly available, there's a theoretical risk that any molecular biologist with sufficient knowledge could recreate this virus," said Dr John Wood, a virologist at the National Institute for Biological Standards and Control in Potters Bar.

[Soldier4Christ]

Six more seniors dead from mystery T.O. outbreak

CTV.ca News Staff

Six more residents of a Toronto seniors' residence home are dead from a mystery respiratory illness, raising the death toll to 16.

"It's obviously something new," infectious disease specialist Dr. Neil Rau  told CTV News. "It's either a new virus, or it's a play on an old virus that's become a little more virulent to the point of causing very significant disease in elderly people."

Toronto's medical officer of health, Dr. David McKeown, said there have been no new reported cases in the last 24 hours.

Public health officials say the cause for the outbreak at the Seven Oaks Home for the Aged in the city's east end remains unknown but that they are continuing testing. However, they maintain that the situation is under control.

"I think that if in a week we can't figure this out, it's time to get some international help," Dr. Rau said.

"What we are seeing is a pretty virulent pathogen that is causing this outbreak," said Dr. Donald Low, medical director of the public health laboratories branch in the Ministry of Health, appearing on CTV Newsnet.

Low has analyzed tissue samples from one of the victims who just died. Health officials have have ruled out influenza, avian flu, SARS (severe acute respiratory syndrome) and Legionnaire's disease.

"So our task right now is to find out...what the cause is," Low said. "And that's what we are doing... literally working day and night with clinical specimens to find out what is causing this."

A total of 38 people are in hospital; 34 of them are residents, two are staff, and two are visitors to Seven Oaks.

Since the outbreak began on Sept. 25, 70 residents, 13 employees and five visitors have become ill.

"The majority of cases are improving but some have worsened as the illness takes its course," a statement released by the city's public health officials said Wednesday.

"What is reassuring, despite the fact that the number of deaths are going up is that the number of new cases per day is dropping," said Dr. Rau. "We have to watch a little longer, but it looks like that is a favourable trend."

Ontario Health Minister George Smitherman urged caution, saying there is no evidence to suggest the outbreak has spread beyond the seniors' home.

Smitherman noted Wednesday that respiratory illnesses afflicting vulnerable patients such as seniors are not uncommon.
"These are not circumstances that are new," he said. "We're struggling with circumstances like this always in the institutional environment."

Dr. Low agreed, saying such outbreaks have been around for decades.

"It is just now that we have the technology that we can actually identify them, and hopefully actually tell you what is causing them," he said.

Anxiety over the outbreak has been aggravated by fears of SARS in Toronto, a city still reeling from the effects of the respiratory illness.

In 2003, two SARS outbreaks in the Toronto area killed 44 and sickened hundreds. Worldwide, more than 8,000 people contracted the illness and 774 people died.

Meanwhile, the Greater Toronto Hotel Association has released a confidential memo to hotels in the city, urging them to be on alert that visitors and foreign media may pick up on the story and draw unwarranted comparisons to the SARS outbreak.

Among a list of bulleted recommendations, officials are warned that speaking out on the issue may make them appear "defensive."

"The only threat here is if people get carried away with hysteria (or if the outbreak escalates significantly, but there appears no reason to suspect it will)," the memo says.'

"We can inform anyone who asks that we are monitoring the situation closely. Of course we can't appear to be dismissing it out of hand.

"But the biggest threat to tourism is not a respiratory outbreak, it's a hysteria outbreak. That's what we need to contain. We certainly do not want to make any comments that refer to SARS or "last time."

Hotel officials are urged to limit any comment to the theme: "Toronto is one of the safest cities in the world, and that's as true today as ever."

The memo follows in the footsteps of increasingly intense media coverage on the outbreak, including on CNN.

The city's tourism and hospitality industry was hard hit by the SARS crisis after the World Health Organization put Toronto on a list of areas fighting SARS in 2003, thus driving away potential tourists leery of becoming infected.