Prophecy, Drought, Earthquakes, Famine, Pestilence, War, and Strange Weather.

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UNJLC Bulletin No. 52 - Pakistan Earthquake

Summary and Highlights

Days since October 8th Earthquake: 256

- All main roads are open, but the risk for landslides remains high.

- In AJK, 31 villages have been identified to be at risk of landslides and flooding during Monsoon season. Relocation is due to start at the end of this week.

- UNJLC ceases operations.

1. Road Access

All main roads in the earthquake affected area are open. However, caution is advised as many roads are at risk of further landslides caused by rains. The coming Monsoon season will exacerbate this risk.

As road conditions are expected to depreciate in the coming months, some organisations, for instance WFP and Premier Urgence, are planning on prepositioning stocks in forward bases. From these bases, goods could be further dispatched by Jeeps, which are able to negotiate roads under difficult circumstances. Suggested sites for forward locating of stocks are contained in the UNJLC Monsoon Logistic Planning Snapshot available at www.unjlc.org/pakistan/infosheets/snapshots

2. Muzaffarabad IDP Update

A total of 31 villages has been identified to be at risk of landslides and floods during Monsoon season. 22 of these villages are located in the Tehsil of Muzaffarabad and 9 in the Tehsil of Hattian. The Camp Management Organisation (CMO) has announced that a total of approximately 1400 families or 8,500 persons will have to be relocated.

In Tehsil Muzaffarabad, approximately 300 of 1000 families identified to be housed in a high risk zone have already left for existing camps. This leaves a number of 700 families to be relocated.

Relocation is planned to start before the end of this week and to be finished by 1 July. The CMO is due to ensure that all families are informed. Discussions are ongoing between CMO, IOM and UNHCR on the organising of transport for the relocation. UNHCR will continue to support the CMO until at least the end of this year.

3. UNJLC Ceases Operations

UNJLC will cease operations on 30 June. Field offices in Muzaffarabad, Bagh and Mansehra will close. A presence will be maintained in Islamabad until 31 July.

A Road Atlas of the earthquake affected area which consists of a series of detailed (1:100,000 scale) road maps will be distributed in the second half of July to those authorities and Agencies/NGOs who plan to continue humanitarian operations in the affected area.

UNJLC is also preparing a Logistics Capacity Assessment (LCA) which will be distributed with the Road Atlas.

In line with the phase-out of UNJLC's operations, the last bulletin will be published next week.

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Indonesian flood death toll hits 200

Jakarta - The death toll climbed to 200 after flash floods and landslides swept through villages in the eastern Indonesian province of South Sulawesi, and left more than 130 others missing, officials said Thursday.

'The latest reports we've gotten from the field now show the death toll reached 200,' said Yustin, an official at the disaster task force, told Deutsche Presse-Agentur dpa from the provincial capital of Makassar, about 1,400 kilometres northeast of Jakarta.

Yustin, who like many Indonesians uses only one name, said 184 of the deaths came from Sinjai district alone, the most-devastated area, while 16 other deaths were from five other different districts of South Sulawesi.

At least 133 residents were reported still missing and feared dead, while the floods and landslides also left more than 7,000 homeless. They were being evacuated to makeshift shelters.

Andi Rudyanto Asapa, chief of the worst-hit Sinjai district, said the death toll would increase as dozens of others were still reported missing.

'There are many residents still missing, who were either swept away or have been buried alive under the mudslides,' Asapa told dpa.

About 30 homes in five different villages were buried under tons of soil, he said, adding that the disaster swept the region when locals were asleep. Dozens of people were presumed to have been buried alive under their flattened houses.

The early Tuesday flash flood, triggered by heavy rains since Monday, inundated or heavily damaged hundreds of houses in seven districts in the province, officials said.

Asapa said rescue workers, including soldiers, police and civilians, have been searching the affected areas for bodies and digging into piles of mud from landslides to look for possible survivors.

But the roads have been buried by landslides, hampering their work, and additional heavy equipment is needed to reopen them.

The floods also swept away hundreds of houses, inundated thousands of hectares of fields, destroyed six bridges, and cut power and telephone communications to the affected regions, other officials said.

Vice President Jusuf Kalla said he believes deforestation was the cause of the extreme flooding in South Sulawesi province, and urged an investigation into claims that the flooding may have been caused by illegal logging.

'I think there had been deforestation at Mount Bawahkaraeng. As the flood came so unexpectedly it is an indication that the condition of the forests there was no longer good,' the state-run Antara news agency quoted Kalla as saying.

The floods are the latest calamity to hit the vast archipelago nation during this year's rainy season.

In early January, landslides and flash floods swept through several villages in Central and East Java provinces, killing more than 120 people and injuring dozens of others. Hundreds of dwellings were destroyed and thousands of villagers forced from their homes.

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Drought creates lightning, flash flood danger

CAROL A. CLARK, lanews@lamonitor.com, Monitor Senior Reporter

The National Weather Service offices serving New Mexico are conducting its annual weeklong lightning safety and flash flood awareness campaign through Saturday.

Despite the desert environment and extended dry years of dryness - storm statistics show that New Mexico continues to rank high in fatalities and injuries from both lightning and flash flooding, northern and eastern New Mexico warning coordination meteorologist Keith Hayes said.

He added that an extra danger of high risk flash flooding continues in locations hit by large wildfires this season or within the past several years.

"We urge all New Mexico residents and visitors to learn both the hazards of lightning and flash floods plus the safety rules that can save lives or help prevent serious injury during any strong or severe thunderstorm," Hayes said.

With drought conditions so severe, Gov. Richardson signed executive orders on June 7 in Socorro and Ruidoso to free up an additional $3 million in state funds to help with fire prevention and fire cleanup efforts.

The four executive orders provide $750,000 each to the Forestry Division of the Energy, Minerals and Natural Resources Department to pay for wildland fire response, suppression, post fire rehabilitation, and preparation including pre-positioning of firefighters and equipment.

Longtime Los Alamos resident John Hogan is a physical scientist from the United States Geological Survey Jemez Mountains Field Station. He is assigned, through a cooperative agreement, to the Los Alamos County Fuel Mitigation-Forest Restoration Project, now under the management of Los Alamos County Open Space Specialist Craig Martin.

"The NOAA Climate Prediction Center places us in 'severe to extreme' drought conditions in the Southwest and gives us 'equal chances' for a wet or dry monsoon season," Hogan said.

He said a recent summary of data from the Bandelier fire tower weather station completed by the USGS Jemez Mountains Field Station shows from the first of October through the end of May, that site received only 2.27 inches of precipitation, with only 0.77 inches of that falling since the end of October.

"This puts us at 19 percent of average precipitation at the peak of fire season," Hogan said.

Hogan said prior to the 20th century, the greatest number of acres burned in the Southwest was in late spring and early summer, based on tree-ring analysis and other data, because that is when there is sufficient heat and moisture to create convective storms with abundant lightning but little or no rain.

"Now that situation has been exacerbated by a century of ill-informed management practices, persistent drought and the widespread wildcard of human-caused fires," Hogan said. "Tree densities and fuel loads have increased to five to 10 times their pre-European-settlement levels."

Fire risk throughout the Southwest region is "very high to extreme", he said. Numerous large fires are now burning in Arizona and New Mexico, with the bulk of the nation's hotshot crews and air tankers assigned to battle them.

"People are suffering in shelters - wondering, while their beloved landscape explodes," Hogan said. "Here in Los Alamos County we have an advantage that much of the region doesn't have. One of the best things to come out of the Cerro Grande Fire was the opportunity and funding to protect the remainder of the community and interspersed wildlands from suffering the same fate."

Hogan said the thinning accomplished through the Los Alamos County Fuel Mitigation-Forest Restoration Project over the last three years has reduced tree density on most sites of the county's 1,300 acres of open space from 400-1,200 trees per acre to between 40-80 trees per acre.

"This mimics the forest structure lost over the last century and reduces, but does not eliminate the risk of destructive, potentially fatal fires," Hogan said. "The luxuriant grasses, wildflowers, and shrubs produced by the near record moisture of 2004-05 are now cured to a golden brown and mixed with down and dead logs and pine needles on burned and unburned tracts of county and neighboring lands."

This is an ideal fuel bed for the ignition and propagation of fast-moving fires - not of the magnitude and intensity of the Cerro Grande crown fire, Hogan said, but still extremely dangerous.

"We must not become complacent; fuel treatments don't work like vaccinations," Hogan said. "It's not a one time thing that lasts for life. Constant boosters are required. Science-based decision making, periodic thinning and prescribed burning will be necessary to complete and maintain the work that has already been done. Really it's about a paradigm shift, from the ignorance of benign inaction to informed, active resource management."

Hogan asks community members to get informed and get involved.

"The collaborative efforts of many dedicated individuals from a variety of agencies and organizations have brought us a long way from where we were in the summer of 2000," he said. "The National Park Service, the Forest Service, Los Alamos National Laboratory, the Santa Clara and San Ildefonso Pueblos and Los Alamos County work more closely now than ever before. Local non-profits and schools are spreading the word here at home and throughout the Southwest. As a community, both locally and regionally, we are becoming more fire-adapted. Please be careful and aware. We are immersed in such incredible beauty and biological abundance - let's take care of it and each other."

Hogan described the moisture content of live and dead fuels as one of many variables used by fire analysts and planners to assess fire risk. It also provides important information on fire behavior for firefighters in wildfire suppression, he said. Bandelier, LANL and the Santa Fe National Forest already have ongoing fuel moisture programs and this information is shared between jurisdictions, including the Los Alamos County Fire Department, Hogan said.

"As part of the Fuel Mitigation-Forest Restoration Project, we are beginning to collect and analyze samples from Los Alamos County Open Space," Hogan said. "This will augment data from other jurisdictions, add more detail to the regional picture, and provide site-specific information for local open space and fire planning and management."

Hogan said the hope is to institutionalize this practice now that the treatment phase of the project is winding down and the county transitions to long-term forest management.

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Rainstorms flood streets, slow market sales

A sloshing good time was had by all.

Well, not quite, as Consumers Energy reports that more than 800 customers in the Tri-Counties lost power during a wave of thunderstorms that swept the region Wednesday.

It was a not-so-cool way to kick off the first day of summer.

"It was good sleeping weather if you didn't mind all of the thunder," said Terry DeDoes, a spokesman for the Jackson-based utility.

Downed tree branches, various debris and temporarily flooded streets greeted residents throughout Saginaw County. In Birch Run, a tree limb fell on a power line, leaving 112 residents without power. DeDoes said Consumers expected them to regain electricity early today.

Birch Run Assistant Fire Chief David A. Matzke said a transformer blew. Some residents reported hearing an explosion, but crews didn't find a fire.

Weather forecasters say there's a slight chance of scattered thunderstorms again today, but folks were greeted with sunshine this morning.

By the weekend, the region will see sunny skies and temperatures in the mid- to high 70s, said Darrin Bradley, chief meteorologist for Channel 5, WNEM.

Vendors at the Downtown Saginaw Farmers Market are pleased to hear that.

"(Wednesday) was one of the slower days," said Andrea Szeszulski, who runs B&B Farms of Freeland with her husband, Dan. The couple attempted to sell shelled peas and salad Wednesday.

"Things picked up after the rain started to trickle, though," she said.

Vendors under the carnival tents at the market, 507 S. Washington, worked around several puddles of rain that covered the ground beneath their digs. v

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WHO: Bird Flu Spread Among Family Members

The World Health Organization has concluded that human-to-human transmission likely occurred among seven relatives who developed bird flu in Indonesia.

In a report obtained Wednesday by The Associated Press, WHO experts said the cluster's index case was probably infected by sick birds and spread the disease to six family members. One of those cases, a boy, then likely infected his father, it said.

The U.N. agency stressed the virus has not mutated and that no cases were detected beyond the family.

Seven of the eight relatives died last month, but one was buried before samples could be taken to confirm bird flu infection.

"Six confirmed H5N1 cases likely acquired (the) H5N1 virus through human-to-human transmission from the index case ... during close prolonged contact with her during the late stages of her illness," the report said.

The report was distributed at a closed meeting in Jakarta attended by some of the world's top bird flu experts. The three-day session was convened after Indonesia asked for international help. The country has recorded the world's highest number of human bird flu cases this year, and 39 of those infected have died.

"What is happening in Indonesia? That is the No. 1 question," said Bayu Krishnamurthi, Indonesia's national bird flu coordinator. "With all of these limited resources - human, financial, institutional - what should we do?"

The experts were expected to discuss the large family cluster during the session. One of the remaining mysteries is why only blood relatives - not spouses - became infected.

The WHO report theorizes the family shared a "common genetic predisposition to infection with H5N1 virus with severe and fatal outcomes." However, there is no evidence to support that.

Keiji Fukuda, WHO's coordinator for the Global Influenza Program in Geneva, said the Indonesian case appears to resemble other family clusters where limited human-to-human transmission occurred following close contact. He said scientists must find out whether anything is different about the way the virus is behaving.

"The really critical factor is why did that cluster develop?" he said. "What's the reason why people in a cluster got infected?"

Fukuda said that although the cluster in the farming village on Sumatra island grabbed world attention, no country - including Vietnam and Thailand, which have largely controlled the virus - is safe from bird flu.

"This is a virus that you both have to respect a lot and (you) have to be concerned about the overall situation, even in areas in which it looks like control has been achieved," he said on the meeting's sidelines. "The real question is: Can you sustain that control for a virus which is really able to persist this way?"

Bird flu has killed at least 130 people worldwide since it began ravaging Asian poultry stocks in late 2003. Experts fear the virus will mutate into a form that spreads easily among people, potentially sparking a pandemic. So far, it remains hard for people to catch, and most human cases have been traced to contact with infected birds.

Indonesian officials said the country lacks manpower and money to battle the H5N1 virus alone. The government has been saddled with a series of natural disasters, including the 2004 tsunami and an earthquake last month on Java Island.

Indonesia needs $50 million from donors in the next three years to establish a system to help fight bird flu in poultry, according to Peter Roeder of the U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization.

Indonesia has said it needs $900 million over the next three years for its overall battle against the H5N1 virus but has only budgeted $59 million.

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Study Says Earth's Temp at 400-Year High

 The Earth is the hottest it has been in at least 400 years, probably even longer. The National Academy of Sciences, reaching that conclusion in a broad review of scientific work requested by Congress, reported Thursday that the "recent warmth is unprecedented for at least the last 400 years and potentially the last several millennia."

A panel of top climate scientists told lawmakers that the Earth is running a fever and that "human activities are responsible for much of the recent warming." Their 155-page report said average global surface temperatures in the Northern Hemisphere rose about 1 degree during the 20th century.

The report was requested in November by the chairman of the House Science Committee, Rep. Sherwood Boehlert, R-N.Y., to address naysayers who question whether global warming is a major threat.

Last year, when the House Energy and Commerce Committee chairman, Rep. Joe Barton, R-Texas, launched an investigation of three climate scientists, Boehlert said Barton should try to learn from scientists, not intimidate them.

The Bush administration also has maintained that the threat is not severe enough to warrant new pollution controls that the White House says would have cost 5 million Americans their jobs.

Climate scientists Michael Mann, Raymond Bradley and Malcolm Hughes had concluded the Northern Hemisphere was the warmest it has been in 2,000 years. Their research was known as the "hockey-stick" graphic because it compared the sharp curve of the hockey blade to the recent uptick in temperatures and the stick's long shaft to centuries of previous climate stability.

The National Academy scientists concluded that the Mann-Bradley-Hughes research from the late 1990s was "likely" to be true, said John "Mike" Wallace, an atmospheric sciences professor at the University of Washington and a panel member. The conclusions from the '90s research "are very close to being right" and are supported by even more recent data, Wallace said.

The panel looked at how other scientists reconstructed the Earth's temperatures going back thousands of years, before there was data from modern scientific instruments.

For all but the most recent 150 years, the academy scientists relied on "proxy" evidence from tree rings, corals, glaciers and ice cores, cave deposits, ocean and lake sediments, boreholes and other sources. They also examined indirect records such as paintings of glaciers in the Alps.

Combining that information gave the panel "a high level of confidence that the last few decades of the 20th century were warmer than any comparable period in the last 400 years," the academy said.

Overall, the panel agreed that the warming in the last few decades of the 20th century was unprecedented over the last 1,000 years, though relatively warm conditions persisted around the year 1000, followed by a "Little Ice Age" from about 1500 to 1850.

The scientists said they had less confidence in the evidence of temperatures before 1600. But they considered it reliable enough to conclude there were sharp spikes in carbon dioxide and methane, the two major "greenhouse" gases blamed for trapping heat in the atmosphere, beginning in the 20th century, after remaining fairly level for 12,000 years.

Between 1 A.D. and 1850, volcanic eruptions and solar fluctuations were the main causes of changes in greenhouse gas levels. But those temperature changes "were much less pronounced than the warming due to greenhouse gas" levels by pollution since the mid-19th century, it said.

The National Academy of Sciences is a private organization chartered by Congress to advise the government of scientific matters.

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Firefighter Battle for Upperhand on Western Wildfires

Firefighters in Arizona, California, Colorado and New Mexico battled wildfires Thursday that have been spreading all week across tinder-dry countryside.

In Sedona, Ariz., firefighters had mostly stopped a fire working its way north using a highway as a fire break, but incident commander Paul Broyles said there was a minor breach, which he said has potential to reach Flagstaff, northern Arizona's largest city, about 25 miles away. The fire has consumed about 2,500 acres, the report said.

In southern Colorado, firefighter battling an 11,800-acre fire just west of Pueblo had help from shifting winds Wednesday, the Pueblo Chieftain reported Thursday.

The U.S. Forest Service said firefighters had a 13,400-acre fire in California's Los Padres National Forest, near Cuyama, about 32 percent contained.

In southwestern New Mexico, the National Fire Information Center said there was zero containment of a 24,300-acre fire in Gila National Forest, 17 miles northeast of Glenwood.

The NFIC said wildfires this year have scorched 3,123,689 acres nationwide, more than four times last year's total for the same period.

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Lightning sparks wildfires

It is so dry in South Georgia that afternoon thunderstorms contribute to the danger for wildfires.

Georgia Forestry reports that lightning from Wednesday's afternoon thunderstorms sparked seven wildfires in the Americus district.

There have been 39 wildfires in the last three days in that 18 county district, which stretches from Dougherty County to Upson County.

Foresters worry because this lightning danger is forecast for the next week, with little rain to help. Georgia Forestry Chief Ranger, Sr. Brent McCarty said "We're basically supposed to have the same thing every afternoon, these pop up thunderstorms. A lot of them, especially on the outside edge of them, there is a lot of lightning with little rainfall in them. "

There has been a 30 percent increase in wildfires in Southwest Georgia so far this year. In June 2005 there were 8 wildfires in the Americus District, but so far in June 2006 there have already been 71.     All burning has been burning except for construction and farm work.

[Shammu]

Crews use hand tools in western fire fight

By AMANDA LEE MYERS, Associated Press Writer 2 hours, 12 minutes ago

SEDONA, Ariz. - Fire crews burned away vegetation and used hand tools to scratch out firebreaks along a canyon as planes dropped retardant Thursday in hopes of keeping a 3,260-acre wildfire north of this scenic Arizona community from spreading.

Crews also were standing by to protect roughly 460 homes and businesses in nearby Oak Creek Canyon, which was evacuated when the blaze was sparked Sunday by a transient's campfire.

Officials said the fire was 15 percent contained — up from 7 percent Wednesday. No buildings had burned, and a containment line in an area along Sterling Canyon Thursday afternoon had held from midnight through late Thursday afternoon.

"So far, we're doing real good. It's been successful," said Craig Pettigrew, operations section chief with the fire crew. "We're pretty confident we can hold it."

Nora Walker-Yeager, who was allowed to return to her home briefly Thursday, grabbed her wedding book, her husband's wedding ring, her engagement ring, dog toys, clothes and medications.

"If it burns, we've got the things that are most important to us," Walker-Yeager said.

Eaker said Thursday's diminishing winds worked in the favor of the 700 firefighters battling the blaze. But temperatures forecast around 100 with single-digit humidity would work against them.

In southern Colorado, firefighters were helped by cooler temperatures and higher humidity as they worked to expand containment lines around an 11,800-acre wildfire. Residents of 300 homes were still awaiting word on when they could return, and U.S. 160, a major thoroughfare through the area, remained closed for a fourth day. No houses had been lost.

The fire, burning in drought-stressed grasslands and forests about 150 miles south of Denver, was 30 percent contained.

Firefighters in New Mexico, facing fires that have scorched more than 70,000 acres, were dealing with more hot weather Thursday, but forecasts of storms and erratic winds didn't materialize.

"We have to take one day at a time," fire information officer Brian Morris said. "We can plan for the future, but we still have to deal with today."

The largest blaze — the 33,250-acre in southwestern New Mexico — threatened cabins and other structures in the Willow Creek area.

Crews use hand tools in western fire fight

[Shammu]

 Earth hottest it's been in 2,000 years
WASHINGTON - The Earth is running a slight fever from greenhouse gases, after enjoying relatively stable temperatures for 2,000 years. The National Academy of Sciences, after reconstructing global average surface temperatures for the past two millennia, said Thursday the data are "additional supporting evidence ... that human activities are responsible for much of the recent warming."

Other new research showed that global warming produced about half of the extra hurricane-fueled warmth in the North Atlantic in 2005, and natural cycles were a minor factor, according to Kevin Trenberth and Dennis Shea of the National Center for Atmospheric Research, a research lab sponsored by the National Science Foundation and universities.

The academy had been asked to report to Congress on how researchers drew conclusions about the Earth's climate going back thousands of years, before data was available from modern scientific instruments. The academy convened a panel of 12 climate experts, chaired by Gerald North, a geosciences professor at Texas A&M University, to look at the "proxy" evidence before then, such as tree rings, corals, marine and lake sediments, ice cores, boreholes and glaciers.

Combining that information gave the panel "a high level of confidence that the last few decades of the 20th century were warmer than any comparable period in the last 400 years," the panel wrote. It said the "recent warmth is unprecedented for at least the last 400 years and potentially the last several millennia," though it was relatively warm around the year 1000 followed by a "Little Ice Age" from about 1500 to 1850.

Their conclusions were meant to address, and they lent credibility to, a well-known graphic among climate researchers — a "hockey-stick" chart that climate scientists Michael Mann, Raymond Bradley and Malcolm Hughes created in the late 1990s to show the Northern Hemisphere was the warmest it has been in 2,000 years.

It had compared the sharp curve of the hockey blade to the recent uptick in temperatures — a 1 degree rise in global average surface temperatures in the Northern Hemisphere during the 20th century — and the stick's long shaft to centuries of previous climate stability.

That research is "likely" true and is supported by more recent data, said John "Mike" Wallace, an atmospheric sciences professor at the University of Washington and a panel member.

Rep. Sherwood Boehlert (news, bio, voting record), R-N.Y., chairman of the House Science Committee, had asked the academy for the report last year after the House Energy and Commerce Committee chairman, Rep. Joe Barton (news, bio, voting record), R-Texas, launched an investigation of the three climate scientists.

The Bush administration has maintained that the threat from global warming is not severe enough to warrant new pollution controls that the White House says would have cost 5 million Americans their jobs.

"This report shows the value of Congress handling scientific disputes by asking scientists to give us guidance," Boehlert said Thursday. "There is nothing in this report that should raise any doubts about the broad scientific consensus on global climate change."

The academy panel said it had less confidence in the evidence of temperatures before 1600.

But it considered the evidence reliable enough to conclude there were sharp spikes in carbon dioxide and methane, the two major "greenhouse" gases blamed for trapping heat in the atmosphere, beginning in the 20th century, after remaining fairly level for 12,000 years.

Between 1 A.D. and 1850, volcanic eruptions and solar fluctuations had the biggest effects on climate. But those temperature changes "were much less pronounced than the warming due to greenhouse gas" levels by pollution since the mid-19th century, the panel said.

Earth hottest it's been in 2,000 years

[Shammu]

Medics Call for Help Fighting Congo Plague
By David Lewis
Kinshasa
22 June 2006
   

Aid workers fighting an outbreak of pneumonic plague in the Democratic Republic of Congo are calling for help. French charity Medecins Sans Frontieres said Thursday unless it gets help tracking down new cases, the outbreak could spiral out of control.

The sole aid agency fighting an outbreak of pneumonic plague in the remote lawless corner of the Democratic Republic of Congo sent out an urgent plea for help Thursday.

French medical charity Medecins Sans Frontieres warned that unless it received help in tracking down new cases and anyone who may have been in contact with them, the outbreak in Congo's Ituri district could spiral out of control.

Twenty-two people have already been killed by the highly contagious airborne disease since the beginning of June. Meanwhile, another 144 cases have been confirmed in Ituri, a district in the remote northeast where militia groups still operate.

The continuing violence in Congo's east just one month ahead of the country's first free elections in over 40 years, means aid workers struggle to provide assistance to thousands displaced by violence there.

Aid workers say this insecurity kills 1,000 people every day in Congo, mostly from war-related hunger and disease, adding to the four million dead since the last war began in 1998.

And MSF fears that unless urgent measures are taken by U.N. and government health officials, the outbreak might spread to areas that doctors will not be able to access due to militia activity.

However, much of the focus in Congo at the moment is on organizing presidential and parliamentary elections, which are due to take place on July 30.

The polls are meant to provide the former Belgian colony with a fresh start after decades of dictatorship, war and chaos.

Medics Call for Help Fighting Congo Plague

[Shammu]

Crews holding line against Ariz. wildfire

By AMANDA LEE MYERS, Associated Press Writer 1 hour, 33 minutes ago

SEDONA, Ariz. - Crews trying to keep a 3,256-acre wildfire from spreading north were bracing for possible thunderstorms Friday that could bring strong and erratic winds and complicate efforts to extinguish the blaze.

By Thursday night, officials said the fire in this scenic Arizona community was 15 percent contained, up from 7 percent Wednesday. But authorities were watching forecasts for the predicted storms, which could fan the flames.

"That's a red flag. That's a watch-out situation," said Mike Dondero, deputy incident commander for the fire. "It could hit and blow stuff all over the place."

Firefighters stood by to protect roughly 430 homes and 30 businesses in nearby Oak Creek Canyon, which was evacuated when the fire began Sunday as a transient's campfire.

Nora Walker-Yeager, who was allowed to return to her Oak Creek Canyon home Thursday to pick up belongings, grabbed her wedding book, her husband's wedding ring, her engagement ring, dog toys, clothes and medications.

"If it burns, we've got the things that are most important to us," Walker-Yeager said. "We've got each other, our dog and our wedding rings."

In southern Colorado, a 13,100-acre wildfire was 35 percent contained. Residents from a 62-house subdivision were heading home Friday and motorists were being allowed to travel again on U.S. 160, which had been closed since Monday.

Cafe owner Luisa Sena said she was relieved to learn the highway, the main east-west route across southern Colorado, was reopening because she depends on the summer months to make most of the money to pay her nine workers. Without any tourists or truckers passing along the highway through the town at the gateway to the historic San Luis Valley, business slowed to a standstill.

"It's tough in the winter. It doesn't need to be like this in the summer," said Sena, owner of Lu's Mainstreet Cafe in neighboring Blanca.

In western Colorado, a 1,530-acre wildfire started by a car wreck Tuesday was 25 percent contained. The fire was burning in juniper, oak and ponderosa pine in the Manti-La Sal National Forest, about 225 miles southwest of Denver near the Utah border.

Firefighters in New Mexico, facing fires that have scorched more than 70,000 acres, were dealing with more hot weather Thursday, but forecasts of storms and erratic winds didn't materialize.

The largest blaze — a 33,250-acre one in southwestern New Mexico — threatened cabins and other structures in the Willow Creek area.

"We have to take one day at a time," fire information officer Brian Morris said. "We can plan for the future, but we still have to deal with today."

In southern California, firefighters were holding their ground against a wildfire that has consumed nearly 15,000 acres of chaparral, pine and grasslands in Los Padres National Forest, officials said.

Fire crews prevented a 10-mile-long swath of flames from rolling over a ridgeline bordering a wilderness area that has larger trees and brush, said U.S. Forest Service spokesman Joe Pasinato. The fire was 57 percent contained, officials said.

"Today was a key day," said Pasinato. "The fire did not make any rapid advances."

Crews holding line against Ariz. wildfire

[Shammu]

Firefighter drowns in Ohio flash flood

By THOMAS J. SHEERAN, Associated Press Writer 1 hour, 33 minutes ago

CLEVELAND - Crews were fanning out across Ohio early Friday to assess damage from a series of storms that flipped airplanes, toppled tractor-trailers and killed a firefighter who tried to rescue two teens from a flash flood.

The slow-moving systems had mostly settled, but they left at least 155,000 people without power late Thursday, and flood and storm watches remained in effect for most of the state.

Near the village of Wellington, about 40 miles southwest of Cleveland, Al Anderson Jr., 47, drowned as he tried to reach the teens, whose Jeep had gotten stuck, authorities said. The teens were rescued by boat.

A tornado touched down around 5:30 p.m. Thursday near Winesburg in northeast Ohio's Holmes County, severely damaging two houses and several barns, said Mark Adams, a National Weather Service meteorologist in Cleveland. The roof of one business was blown a half-mile away, he said.

Intense winds felled trees and knocked out power in the Stark County village of Brewster, Adams said. Weather service staff were expected to examine the scene to verify it was a tornado, he said.

Near Logan in southeast Ohio, nine people, seven of them law enforcement officers, were injured Thursday afternoon when lightning struck a shelter during a charity run, according to the State Highway Patrol.

Ohio University officer Nathan Van Oort was in intensive care at Ohio State University Medical Center in Columbus with critical injuries, according to the patrol and Paige Ludwig, a spokeswoman for the Ohio Special Olympics, the race organizer.

In northeast Ohio, single-engine planes parked on the tarmac at the Allen County Airport were turned upside-down by gusts up to 80 mph, said Brentley Lothamer, a weather service meteorologist in Indiana.

Norwalk, about halfway between Cleveland and Toledo, was one of the hardest-hit areas. Seven inches of rain forced the city's reservoir to overflow and split the city in two. The water nearly covered cars and playground equipment in low-lying areas. Mayor Sue Lesch called the flooding the worst since a dam break in 1969.

Firefighter drowns in Ohio flash flood

[Shammu]

Tourists avoid Sedona area, head for White Mountains

Stephanie Paterik
The Arizona Republic
Jun. 23, 2006 12:00 AM

The insatiable Brins Fire will drive hikers, campers and jeep tours out of the high country around Sedona as the entire Coconino National Forest closes today.

Many of those travelers are migrating to the White Mountains 177 miles east of Sedona, where they can still camp, fish and watch fireworks in cool weather over the Fourth of July weekend.

As the fire ate away at Oak Creek Canyon on Monday, the phone at the Pinetop-Lakeside Chamber of Commerce and Visitor Center started ringing.

It hasn't stopped.

"We have been literally swamped," said Elaine West, executive director and pinch-hitting phone operator. "We had to get extra people to work at the visitor center. People are sort of changing their vacation plans because they know it's cool up here and nice."

It's a strange reversal for communities like Pinetop-Lakeside, Greer, Show Low and Snowflake. After the huge Rodeo-Chediski Fire in 2002, tourists stayed away in large numbers because they assumed the area had been damaged. It took the tourism industry years to recover.

Now, the White Mountains could be a refuge for tourists during the holiday weekend as forest fires blaze to the east in New Mexico and to the west in Sedona.

Business is strong at the Tin Star Inn & Trading Post in Greer, owner Jeff Christ said.

"My heart goes out to those people in Sedona," Christ said. "Even though we'd like some of their visitors, we don't want to get them because of some kind of fire."

Meanwhile on Thursday, Sedona and Flagstaff were struggling to get the word out that their cities are open for business. The Sedona Chamber of Commerce posted "101 things to do" on its Web site, and the Flagstaff Convention & Visitors Bureau promoted indoor activities such as the Native American Arts Exhibition that begins July 1.

Six days into the fire, businesses say they are worried about an economic pinch if the blaze is not soon contained. The forest closure does not help.

Forty lodges, restaurants and retailers near the blaze have shut down. Hotels say they are seeing some cancellations and losing new bookings.

Operators of jeep tours and balloon rides could take the biggest hit because nearly all their business is in forest lands. Jeep operators are scrambling to come up with new tours on paved roads. Pink Jeep Tours is offering four newly concocted "smooth ride" routes.

People with breathing problems are canceling reservations at L'Auberge de Sedona, while others are showing up to patronize the spas, art galleries and golf courses.

"People here strictly to hike or go on jeep tours, they're probably not going to come," said Bill Allison, director of sales and marketing at L'Auberge. "Thankfully, not everybody is a hiker or jeep tour rider."

Phoenix residents are most likely to change their weekend vacation plans, said Jerry Thull, sales and marketing manager for the Flagstaff visitors bureau. People outside the state who planned their trips to the Southwest months ago are likely to follow through.

Often, it's perception more than reality that can kill businesses during a forest fire. Ellen Bilbrey, spokeswoman for Arizona State Parks, said people across the nation see the headlines and assume the whole state is ablaze.

The businesses of the White Mountains have been there. Tourists stayed away even after the Rodeo-Chediski Fire was put out, said Pete Klute, who promotes tourism for the White Mountains Partnership.

"As long as something doesn't happen in their area, they expect to have a very good weekend and hopefully a good summer," he said of the White Mountains communities.

"On the other hand, we hope firefighters will get this one under control as soon as possible because it took several years for people actually to understand that this area was open and still clean and green."

Tourists avoid Sedona area, head for White Mountains

My note; the only bad thing about this, they come up here. Do 45 in a 35 mph zone, hit their horns, shout at us, call us names. Saying we should be happy they are here. I myself ain't happy they up here.  Let them take there speeding, cussing, and all that crud, and leave it at home. This is a laided back area, country towns, not a big city.

[Shammu]

Millions groan under relentless rise of vegetable prices
Web posted at: 6/23/2006 8:24:49
Source ::: IANS

new delhi • Millions of Indians, literally groaning under backbreaking prices of vegetables and food grains, will draw little consolation from Finance Minister P Chidambaram’s efforts at “handling supply side constraints” to contain the upward spiral.

For one, Chidambaram, while briefing reporters after a cabinet meeting presided over by Prime Minister Manmohan Singh that discussed the price issue for one-and-a-half hours, made only a passing reference to vegetables but spoke in detail of the steps being taken to contain rising prices of foodgrains.

Saying the private sector had been allowed to import wheat and sugar while the export of pulses had been banned, Chidambaram added: “The government is confident that inflationary expectations will be dampened in the economy after today’s decision which aims at handling the supply side constraint.” But, even more than wheat, sugar and pulses, it is the rising prices of vegetables that have hit the common man the hardest.

From Chandigarh in the north, to Ranchi in the east and from Bhopal in central India to Kerala in the south, a cacophony of voices has been raised against the relentless spiral of vegetable prices and demanding that steps be taken to bring them down.

While the Sensex index has been zooming up and down during the past few weeks, it has been a steady northern spiral for the vegetables. While the poor have been worst hit, the middle class is also feeling the pinch. Tomatoes are selling at up to Rs50 a kilo, cauliflower at Rs42 a kilo and chillies at Rs70 a kilo, playing havoc with household budgets and forcing people to drastically scale down purchases of non-essential commodities.

The national capital is no exception to the trend, with tomatoes costing over Rs40 per kilo against Rs15 couple of weeks ago, cauliflower at over Rs42 per kilo and okra at over Rs22. Among pulses, moong dal is selling at Rs60-70, an increase Rs3-13 against a week ago. For the past two weeks the prices of vegetables are affecting our budget. Looking at the high tomato price, we have curbed its use,” said housewife Romi Dash. “Earlier we used to consume over three kg of tomatoes every week, but for the last two weeks we are managing just one-and-a-half kilo,” Dash added.

Traders said that while un-seasonal rain and a severe heat wave had affected production, the hike in fuel prices was also responsible for the rising prices. “Low production coupled with high transportation costs due to the fuel price hike is the main reason for soaring prices,” said Praveen Khandelwal, secretary general of Confederation of All India Traders (CAIT).

Tomato prices have touched a new high of Rs50 a kilo in Chandigarh.“The government at the centre has failed to check the price hike. After the fuel prices were raised, we now have to face the burden of increased prices of all commodities. Is the government sleeping?” complained housewife Anjana Thakur.

Raghav Puri, an executive in a private firm, had a novel way out. “If the government cannot control the price hike, let them bring a law that binds all employers — whether government or private sector — to increase salaries by a corresponding percentage so that people do not suffer,” he maintained.

Even the retailers have begun to feel the pinch. “I have observed over the last few days that most customers have been cutting down on purchases. They are not even buying bread and milk as regularly as before,” said grocery shop owner Satya Prakash.

“With the local crop sold out, tomatoes are being imported from Karnataka resulting in a sharp rise in its price due to the increased transportation cost,” said vegetable vendor Ashfaq. “Papa has stopped bringing fruits because they are too costly,” complained school-going Hani Saxena.

Prices of vegetables have more than doubled in Jharkhand, forcing most housewives to drastically cut down on vegetables in the daily menu.“The heavy rains in the first week of June destroyed vegetables in the field. The monsoon is generally expected in the second or third week of June and farmers harvest the vegetables by June 15,” said Vishal, a horticulturist. “This year, farmers did not get time to harvest the vegetables from the field and put them in cold storage.”

The situation is critical in Kerala, which is almost fully dependant on neighbouring states like Tamil Nadu, Karnataka and Andhra Pradesh for supply of food items, including vegetables.

“Ever since the assembly elections got over (in May), the price of food items have been going up from 10 per cent to 75 per cent,” said Rajendran Nair, manager of the Kerala State Civil Supplies Corporation that imports food items and acts as the second line of the public distribution system. Price of chillies has shot up from Rs40 to Rs70, while the price of pulses has shot up by 25 per cent and that of rice by 10 per cent.

Millions groan under relentless rise of vegetable prices