Prophecy, Drought, Earthquakes, Famine, Pestilence, War, and Strange Weather.

[Shammu]

Tremors scare Java quake victims, bird flu threat
Sat Jun 3, 2006 5:10am ET169

By Michael Perry

BANTUL, Indonesia (Reuters) - Aftershocks rattled Indonesia's quake-ravaged region overnight, spreading panic among thousands of homeless survivors, as aid groups rushed to deliver clean water and warned of an increased threat of bird flu.

Several aftershocks, which Indonesia's Meteorology and Geophysics Agency said registered about magnitude 4, shook the region overnight, sending many survivors running from their makeshift tents.

"Last night and this morning I felt some quakes. I was sleeping. I just ran away, out of the tent," said 40-year-old Hardady, who lives in the village of Kerten, which was badly hit by the quake.

The World Health Organization (WHO) said on Saturday that the magnitude 6.3 quake, which flattened villages in Yogyakarta and Central Java provinces at dawn a week ago and killed over 6,200, had forced some survivors to seek shelter in poultry sheds.

"Is there an increased threat and danger? Yes, it's something we have to be very watchful of," a WHO spokeswoman told Reuters. "In Indonesia there's been a high record of human cases and we have to look out for avian flu."

Poultry across Indonesia have died from bird flu, but the 36 human deaths reported since the disease emerged in the country in late 2003. No human deaths have been recorded in the quake zone.

WHO is also concerned about the spread of diarrhea, cholera and viral hepatitis, but said there were no reports of outbreaks.

Aid groups are distributing 65,000 jerry cans with water purification kits in the two provinces, which can provide a family of five with clean water for a month. 

"Dirty water is causing skin infections, especially in young children," Korean doctor Hong Kwong Moon said in the village of Kerten. "There are also some cases of diarrhea here. The water is contaminated, people are washing with it and it infects skin."

AFTERSHOCK PANIC

The United Nations has unveiled plans for a $103 million six-month relief operation to provide aid like emergency shelter, medical assistance, clean water, sanitation, food and child protection across the quake-devastated region.

Last week's quake reduced more than 100,000 homes to rubble and many in the region are now living in flimsy shelters in front of what used to be their homes.

In the small village of Tangkil in the hills high above Yogyakarta, 440 km east of the Indonesian capital Jakarta, 36-year-old Rina Khoiriyah stands by the side of the winding road crying as she hands out hand-written letters asking for help.

Addressed to "those that have kind hearts", the letters say: "To continue our lives we really need you to help us."

"I could not save anything, none of my valuables," Khoiriyah cried. "All my furniture and beds are in the collapsed house. It is buried. It is all gone, it is all I had."

The government's official quake death toll remains at 6,234. The social ministry's disaster task force has also said 33,231 people had serious injuries and 12,917 people had minor injuries.

Sultan Hamengkubuwono X of Yogyakarta, a descendant of the island's royal family, said he shared the misery of his people.

"We have to accept this fate. This is our trial," he told reporters. "What is important is we have to be ready to face the future. The government will do our best to help."

Tremors scare Java quake victims, bird flu threat

[Shammu]

Early monsoon death toll hits 87 in India
Jun 03 2:31 AM US/Eastern

The death toll from lightning strikes and powerful storms has risen to 87 as annual summer monsoon rains tore through India earlier than usual, authorities said.

Another 12 people died in two states due to lightning and accidents caused by lashing rains on top of 75 deaths reported earlier in the week, the Press Trust of India (PTI) news agency said Saturday, citing police.

In the eastern state of Jharkand, six people were struck dead by lightning Friday afternoon while another two had died the previous night.

In the northern state of Uttar Pradesh, two people died Friday after trees uprooted by heavy winds fell on them while another two were killed in house collapses.

A total of 32 dead have been reported from Uttar Pradesh alone since May 18 when the monsoon hit India's Andaman archipelago and then swirled up the west coast states of Kerala, Maharashtra and Gujarat.

The Maharashtra government announced 19 rain-related deaths during the week in the western state, while 12 deaths have been reported from Gujarat, nine from West Bengal and three from Kerala.

India's far-eastern state of Arunachal Pradesh, meanwhile, has sounded a flood alert after 478 millimetres (19 inches) of rain fell in two districts, PTI reported.

Communications between the districts and the nearby state Assam snapped and numerous landslides blocked roads, an official said.

Early monsoon death toll hits 87 in India

[Shammu]

Quake on Iranian island kills one, hurts several
Sat Jun 3, 2006 7:41am ET164

TEHRAN (Reuters) - An earthquake on an island off Iran's southern coast killed a young girl and injured several other people on Saturday, an official said.

The 5.2 magnitude struck at 10:45 a.m. (0715 GMT). The full extent of the damage was not yet known.

"A four-year-old girl has been killed in Ramkan village on Qeshm island and several people were injured (in the village of) Zirang," said Hamid Gholampour, an emergency official in the southern province of Hormuzgan.

A spokeswoman for the Red Crescent aid network said rescue teams had been sent to the area.

Ten people were killed when an earthquake measuring 5.9 razed villages on Qeshm in November. The traditional mud-brick dwellings of southern Iran are highly vulnerable to quakes.

Qeshm is the biggest island in the Gulf and is a free-trade zone with a population of about 120,000.

It is famed for its mangroves and its beaches are much loved by tourists and nesting sea-turtles.

Quake on Iranian island kills one, hurts several

[Shammu]

New rating system for typhoons
2006-06-03
CHINESE meteorologists will implement a new system to forecast typhoons in mid-June, the China Meteorological Administration said.

Two new terms - severe typhoon and super typhoon - will be added to the forecast grades to reduce casualties and losses caused by typhoons, said Xiao Ziniu, deputy head of the Chinese Central Meteorological Station under the CMA.

"Traditionally, strong tropical storms would be called typhoons if wind speed exceeds 118 kilometers per hour, no matter how strong it was," said Xiao.

In the new system, tropical storms with wind speeds from 118 to 149 kilometers per hour will be classified as typhoons, those with wind speeds from 149 to 183 kph will be classified as severe typhoons, and those above 183 kph will be called super typhoons.

"The new system will help warn citizens properly about the power of the typhoons to help them make full preparations," Xiao said.

The year's first, Chanchu, hit China on May 18.

New rating system for typhoons

[Shammu]

Indonesian volcano spews lava, hot clouds

By EN-LAI YEOH, Associated Press Writer Sat Jun 3, 12:56 PM ET

BANTUL, Indonesia - The Mount Merapi volcano spewed lava and hot clouds Saturday and a strong aftershock hit the region, sending fear rippling through the southern Indonesian area devastated by an earthquake only a week ago.

The mountain's lava dome has swelled in the past week to 330 feet, raising fears that it could collapse, said Subandriyo, a government scientist who uses one name. That could release a highly dangerous pyroclastic flow — a fast-moving burst of high-temperature gases and rock fragments that burns anything in its path.

More than a thousand aftershocks have hit the region since the 6.3-magnitude earthquake struck before dawn May 27, killing at least 6,234 people and injuring 30,000 more. Officials estimate that 135,000 homes were destroyed.

Scientists say the quake may have contributed to a weakening of the lava dome.

Most aftershocks have been weak, but one overnight Saturday jolted survivors awake.

"I picked up my nephew and ran out of the house. It was very strong," said Yudi, who like many Indonesians uses one name. There were no reports of damage from the quake, measured at magnitude 3.4.

Worried villagers in recent days have performed rituals aimed at warding off an eruption. On Thursday, the mountain's royally appointed spiritual guardian, "Mbah" Maridjan, led a silent procession of 100 people three times around a village near the volcano.

Most of the estimated 647,000 people left homeless are living in makeshift shelters — often just plastic tarps to ward off tropical downpours and the hot sun — with no toilets or running water.

Thirty more U.S. military medical personnel arrived Saturday, and were followed by a 135-member medical team from Cuba with two field hospitals. Medical teams already have arrived from Singapore, Japan, Iraq, Malaysia, Qatar and Pakistan.

The United Nations issued an urgent appeal Friday for $103 million to pay for the recovery effort over the next six months — with about half of that for rebuilding homes. Aid workers have yet to reach some remote areas, and delivery of food, medicine and tents has been sporadic in others.

More than 50 people were staying Saturday in two large empty chicken coops in Pentong in Bantul district. Flies buzzed everywhere, and children played barefoot on bamboo slats encrusted with chicken droppings.

The British medical aid agency Merlin said it was concerned that the villagers could catch bird flu or salmonella, and it appealed for more tents for survivors.

Bird flu cases have rocketed in Indonesia in the past month, with some occurring in districts surrounding the quake zone. At least 38 Indonesians have died.

Parji, the 60-year-old owner of one of the coops, told The Associated Press that he was not afraid of bird flu.

"There is a slight smell from the dung, but I look after the health of my birds. I am certain there is no bird flu here," he said.

Two earthquake survivors committed suicide Friday, one by hanging and the other by jumping down a well, Bantul police chief Lt. Col. Dedy Munazat said. Both men had lost their homes in the quake.

Government officials said 380 people who had complained of dizziness and severe stomach pains after eating donated food Thursday were apparently suffering from post-trauma stress. The villagers were treated at four hospitals and laboratory tests found the food was safe, the national disaster agency said.

The massive relief effort comes as Indonesia is still trying to rebuild from the 2004 tsunami, which killed 131,000 people in western Aceh province alone.

Indonesian volcano spews lava, hot clouds

[Shammu]

Quake survivors flock to churches

By Lewa Pardomuan 1 hour, 51 minutes ago

YOGYAKARTA, Indonesia (Reuters) - Christian survivors of the quake that ruined areas on Indonesia's Java island prayed outside damaged churches on Sunday, just over a week after the disaster left more than 6,000 people dead.

International aid agencies have fanned out into the worst-hit areas where tens of thousands have been left homeless and many injured victims need help. However, Indonesia's foreign minister said no additional foreign medical aid was necessary and groups should focus on reconstruction.

The government's official death toll has remained at around 6,200 for the past two days.

Churchgoers in the ancient royal city of Yogyakarta, 440 km (270 miles) east of Jakarta, chose to hold Sunday mass outside because although some churches were still standing, most bore visible cracks on their walls and spires.

"I have traveled through the scenes of the incident and I know that the disaster has made many people suffer. I am here now to pray for safety," said Purasto who was kneeling under a tree in front of his church with his wife.

At the aged Santo Antonius church, Sri Yanto said she had listened to a sermon that called the congregation to stay patient during difficult times.

"The pastor told us to get close to God," she said in front of the damaged church.

Indonesia is the world's most populous Muslim nation and Muslims make up the majority in Yogyakarta city.

However, 17 percent of the city's half a million population follow Christianity and many of its leading hospitals and schools are Catholic institutions.

HEALTH THREATS

Hospitals in the region were overwhelmed by the influx of quake-related patients in the early days after the quake but that problem has been lifted due to the quick response from local and international medical groups.

"Principally, the critical period has passed. However, there is the potential of new health problems due to the environment because of the collapsed houses. Breathing ailments and diarrhoea are indeed threats," Yogyakarta provincial secretary Bambang Susanto Priyohadi told Reuters.

More than 20,000 people had to be treated in hospitals after the quake but there were more than 130,000 outpatients, the World Health Organization said.

Hospitals and clinics have told patients to return to their villages but many quake survivors said they would prefer to stay because they have no proper place to live.

Many throughout the region have been living in flimsy shelters at the sites of their former homes, now piles of rubble.

The risk of infectious disease remains high because of the crowded nature of the quake-hit area.

Indonesian Foreign Minister Hassan Wirajuda said the quake zone was no longer in need of extra foreign medical help.

"My impression is additional presence of foreign medical volunteers is not needed. It has been enough. We can suggest that if they want to help, they should focus on rehabilitation and reconstruction efforts," he told Jakarta-based Radio Elshinta.

The United Nations has been key in supplying water, food and material to the victims of May 27 magnitude 6.3 quake and announced plans for a six-month $103 million relief program.

The Asian Development Bank has offered a $60 million package of grants and soft loans to Indonesia earmarked at helping the quake relief and reconstruction efforts.

Quake survivors flock to churches

[Shammu]

Red alert still in effect at Indonesian volcano

1 hour, 38 minutes ago

Hot lava runs down from the Merapi volcano, as
seen on 03 June 2006. Indonesian authorities maintained
a red alert at smouldering Mount Merapi, as activity at the
volcano continued to intensify for an eighth straight day
since an earthquake rocked the region.

JAKARTA (AFP) - Indonesian authorities maintained a red alert at smouldering Mount Merapi, as activity at the volcano continued to intensify for an eighth straight day since an earthquake rocked the region.

"Based on the results of analysis on monitoring data, the status of Merapi's activities shall be maintained at 'Beware'," said Subandriyo, head of the Merapi section at the vulcanology office in Yogyakarta.

In the first six hours of Sunday the volcano spewed 118 lava trails and six heat clouds, Subandriyo said.

On Saturday, Merapi belched out nearly 500 red-hot lava flows, plumes of smoke stretching 800 meters (2,500 feet) into the sky and more than 100 heat clouds, some of them drifting four kilometers (2.5 miles) down the peak.

Ratdomo Purbo, who heads the vulcanology office in Yogyakarta, was quoted by the Republika newspaper as saying the magma dome atop Merapi had almost doubled in volume to some four million cubic meters, nearly covering the entire crater.

"Because there is no more space to accommodate (the dome's growth), the amount of magma emitted from within the mountain will immediately fall," Purbo said, explaining the increased number of lava trails and heat clouds.

Red alert still in effect at Indonesian volcano

[Soldier4Christ]

Evacuees Return Home After Arizona Wildfire

SEDONA, Ariz. -- After two nights away from home, some Arizona wildfire evacuees said Saturday that they're "lucky to have a house."

A fast-moving wildfire chased about 200 people from home in a subdivision near Sedona on Thursday.

Five buildings, including two houses, were damaged or destroyed by the flames.

But for those whose houses escaped, the sentiment expressed by one homeowner was universal: "It's good to be back home."

Bruce Licher said the blaze came within five feet of his house. He said it was strange to see hundreds of acres of pristine land turned black by the fire just outside his window.

A spokeswoman for the fire crews said it could have been much worse. Jacqueline Denk said given the pace of the wildfire, firefighters were shocked that so few structures were lost.

[Soldier4Christ]

CDF Declares Early Start To California Wildfire Season


LOS ANGELES -- Early summer weather is prompting the state's firefighting agency to declare the opening of fire season in 19 California counties.

The declaration will be made Monday for counties spreading from Nevada County in the north to San Diego County in the south.

"Temperatures are rising, vegetation is drying out, and summer weather patterns have begun. There is always a tremendous potential for wildfire in California," Ruben Grijalva, director of the California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection, said in a statement Friday.

June 12 will be the opening of fire season for other counties in the north. Separately, Orange County's fire authority said it will declare the season on Wednesday.

The CDF declaration means that the agency will increase its fire preparedness. The could include hiring seasonal firefighters, staffing some fire stations around the clock and moving firefighting planes from Sacramento to areas around the state that have a high fire danger.

Grijalva said the CDF has "ample" firefighters and equipment for the season.

"We are fully prepared and ready to go," he said.

Fire seasons are based on weather. In the past, they have started as early as April in some areas and continued into December.

There already have been some problems in Southern California. In February, a wildfire that started as a controlled burn to remove brush was pushed by Santa Ana winds and spread over 11,000 acres of land. Hundreds of homes in Orange County were evacuated before the fire was contained.

Fire authorities have predicted that the biggest threat to Southern California could come in June -- the driest month of the year for that region, when grassy fuels in valleys and deserts will be tinder-dry.

[Soldier4Christ]

Lightning causing wildfires, weekend storms expected


Recent lightning has sparked wildfires around the state. At last check there were nearly 200 active fires in Florida, burning more than 53,000 acres. Now, the First Coast is expecting storms over the weekend, which has some weather officials raising eyebrows.

Firefighters are very close to containing a 3,200 acre wildfire that has been burning in the Osceola National Forest since Sunday.

Lightning was blamed for igniting that blaze, which has required the work of more than a hundred firefighters to keep at bay.

Despite the wet forecast, burn bans will remain in effect for several counties until at least next week. If you live in Clay, Nassau, St. Johns, Alachua, Bradford and Union counties, please don't do any outdoor burning.

In Duval County, outdoor burning is never allowed.

[Soldier4Christ]

Broward County news briefs
 
Broward County

Wildfire prompts closure of portion of U.S. 27

 A wildfire in western Broward County kept U.S. 27 shut down for most of Saturday, from State Road 80 south to I-75.

Officials with the Florida Highway Patrol closed the roadway at 4 p.m. and kept it shut throughout the night because they said there was no visibility.

Broward County Fire Rescue trucks responded to the more than 2,000-acre fire when the flames began jumping across U.S. 27. They left the Division of Forestry to battle the rest of the fire once those road-crossing flames were controlled.

[Shammu]

Farmers, environmentalists warn of Dead Sea's waning water level

 AMMAN, 30 May (IRIN) - Farmers on the south-eastern edge of the Dead Sea risk losing their agricultural land to stream erosion and sinkholes as a direct result of the ongoing decline in the sea level, officials and farmers said on Tuesday.

"We're very worried that we might lose our farms," said 52-year-old farmer Ebrahim Kassab. "Every day, I see another part of my land disappear."

According to Kassab, dozens of local farmers were recently forced to evacuate their homes after the appearance of massive sinkholes – some of them up to 50 metres deep – on their property. "We're living in constant fear," he said. "We can't even walk at night because of the sinkholes."

Geological experts say the continual decrease in the water level of the Dead Sea – the saltiest sea and the lowest point on earth – is the main reason for the frequent appearance of sinkholes. They believe that sinkholes are usually formed when influxes of fresh groundwater, triggered by a decrease in the sea level, gradually dissolve surface areas until they collapse.

Government officials, meanwhile, say the only viable solution is to move farmers out of erosion-prone areas. "We can't do anything to stop the erosion," said Khalid Qoussous, assistant secretary-general of the Jordan Valley Authority. "The only measure we can take is to relocate the farmers."

Environmentalists, however, warn that drastic action is required to avert a potential ecological disaster in the area, which is also a highly popular tourist destination.

According to Professor Najib Abou Karaki, head of the Environmental and Applied Geology Department at the University of Jordan, the diversion for agriculture and domestic purposes of the Jordan River – which runs into the Dead Sea – is largely to blame for the drop in the sea level. The Jordan River provides roughly three-quarters of all the water flowing into the sea, with the remainder descending from springs in the surrounding mountains.

Abou Karaki further pointed out that the industrial use of the Dead Sea by Jordan and Israel, by which millions of cubic metres of water are allowed to evaporate in order to extract chemicals, also affects water levels. "There's no way sinkholes will stop appearing unless humans stop meddling with the sea and the Jordan River is allowed to return to its usual flow," he said.

According to research by the University of Jordan, the Dead Sea's water level is declining at a rate of approximately one metre per year. The government is currently considering a US $5 billion mega project linking the Dead Sea with the Red Sea by way of a 300km-long canal to provide the country with badly needed drinking water.

Farmers, environmentalists warn of Dead Sea's waning water level

[Shammu]

West Nile Virus Arrives in Utah
June 3rd, 2006 @ 11:38am

SALT LAKE CITY (AP) -- The West Nile virus has arrived in Utah.

The potentially deadly disease was detected in a magpie found in West Valley City this week. The Utah Division of Wildlife Resources and Salt Lake Valley Health Department confirmed the first case of the disease in the state this year.

Although no human cases of West Nile virus have been reported yet this year, health officials say now is the time to start taking precautions. Wearing long sleeves and pants, using insect repellant and treating homes for mosquitoes are recommended.

People may get the virus by being bitten by an infected mosquito.

The magpie died May 29th. Results from tests done on the bird came back yesterday.

Extra mosquito abatement will be done in the area where the bird was found.

West Nile Virus Arrives in Utah

[Shammu]

 Mosquitoes with Nile River Virus Detected in Carmel Area
Sunday, June 4, 2006 / 8 Sivan 5766

(IsraelNN.com) Mosquitoes infected with the Nile River virus have been detected in the Carmel region, south of Haifa. The Ministry of Environmental Quality has contacted the local municipalities and has requested that they expand the scope of their extermination efforts.

Mosquitoes with Nile River Virus Detected in Carmel Area

[Shammu]

AIDS toll may reach 100 million in Africa

By TERRY LEONARD, Associated Press Writer Sun Jun 4, 1:32 AM ET

JOHANNESBURG, South Africa - It began quietly, when a statistical anomaly pointed to a mysterious syndrome that attacked the immune systems of gay men in California. No one imagined 25 years ago that AIDS would become the deadliest epidemic in history. Since June 5, 1981, HIV, the virus that causes AIDS, has killed more than 25 million people, infected 40 million others and left a legacy of unspeakable loss, hardship, fear and despair.

Its spread was hastened by ignorance, prejudice, denial and the freedoms of the sexual revolution. Along the way from oddity to pandemic, AIDS changed they way people live and love.

Slowed but unchecked, the epidemic's relentless march has established footholds in the world's most populous countries. Advances in medicine and prevention that have made the disease manageable in the developed world haven't reach the rest.

In the worst case, sub-Saharan Africa, it has been devastating. And the next 25 years of AIDS promise to be deadlier than the first.

AIDS could kill 31 million people in India and 18 million in China by 2025, according to projections by U.N. population researchers. By then in Africa, where AIDS likely began and where the virus has wrought the most devastation, researchers said the toll could reach 100 million.

"It is the worst and deadliest epidemic that humankind has ever experienced," Mark Stirling, the director of East and Southern Africa for UNAIDS, said in an interview.

More effective medicines, better access to treatment and improved prevention in the last few years have started to lower the grim projections. But even if new infections stopped immediately, additional African deaths alone would exceed 40 million, Stirling said.

"We will be grappling with AIDS for the next 10, 20, 30, 50 years," he said.

Efforts to find an effective vaccine have failed dismally, so far. The International AIDS Vaccine Initiative says 30 are being tested in small-scale trials. More money and more efforts are being poured into prevention campaigns but the efforts are uneven. Success varies widely from region to region, country to country.

Still, science offers some promise. In highly developed countries, cocktails of powerful antiretroviral drugs have largely altered the AIDS prognosis from certain death to a manageable chronic illness.

There is great hope that current AIDS drugs might prevent high-risk people from becoming infected. One of these, tenofovir, is being tested in several countries. Plans are to test it as well with a second drug, emtricitabine or FTC.

But nothing can be stated with certainty until clinical trials are complete, said Anthony Fauci, a leading AIDS researcher and infectious diseases chief at the U.S. National Institutes of Health.

And then there is the risk that treatment will create a resistant strain or, as some critics claim, cause people to lower their guard and have more unprotected sex.

Medicine offers less hope in the developing world where most victims are desperately poor with little or no access to the medical care needed to administer and monitor AIDS drugs. Globally, just 1 in 5 HIV patients get the drugs they need, according to a recent report by UNAIDS, the body leading the worldwide battle against the disease.

Stirling said that despite the advances, the toll over the next 25 years will go far beyond the 34 million thought to have died from the Black Death in 14th century Europe or the 20 to 40 million who perished in the 1918 Spanish flu epidemic.

Almost two-thirds of those infected with HIV live in sub-Saharan Africa where poverty, ignorance and negligent political leadership extended the epidemic's reach and hindered efforts to contain it. In South Africa, the president once questioned the link between HIV and AIDS and the health minister urged use of garlic and the African potato to fight AIDS, instead of effective treatments.

AIDS is the leading cause of death in Africa, which has accounted for nearly half of all global AIDS deaths. The epidemic is still growing and its peak could be a decade or more away.

In at least seven countries, the U.N. estimates that AIDS has reduced life expectancy to 40 years or less. In Botswana, which has the world's highest infection rate, a child born today can expect to live less than 30 years.

"Particularly in southern Africa, we may have to apply a new notion, and that is of `underdeveloping' nations. These are nations which, because of the AIDS epidemic, are going backwards," Peter Piot, the director of UNAIDS, said in a speech in Washington in March.

Later, at a meeting in Abuja, Nigeria, last month, Piot cited encouraging news including a sharp fall in new infections in some African countries. There also has been an eightfold increase in the number of Africans benefiting from antiretroviral treatment, he said.

But, he warned, "the crisis of AIDS continues and is getting worse and any slackening of our efforts would jeopardize the hard-won gains of each and every one of us."

Besides the personal suffering of the infected and their families, the epidemic already has had devastating consequences for African education systems, industry, agriculture and economies in general. The impact is magnified because AIDS weakens and kills many young adults, people in their most productive years.

So many farmers and farmworkers have died of AIDS that the U.N. has invented the term "new variant famine." It means that because of AIDS, the continent will experience persistent famine for generations instead of the usual cycles of hunger tied to variable weather.

Africa's misery hangs like a sword over Asia, Eastern Europe and the Caribbean.

Researchers don't expect the infection rates to rival those in Africa. But Asia's population is so big that even low infection rates could easily translate into tens of millions of deaths.

Although fewer than 1 percent of its people are infected, India has topped South Africa as the country with the most infections, 5.7 million to 5.5 million, according to UNAIDS.

The astonishing numbers have grown from a humble beginning.

Nobody knows for sure when or where, but the AIDS epidemic is thought to have begun in the primeval forests of West Africa when a virus lurking in the blood of a monkey or a chimpanzee made the leap from one species to another, infecting a hunter.

Researchers have found HIV in a blood sample collected in 1959 from a man in Kinshasa, Congo. Genetic analysis of his blood suggested the HIV infection stemmed from a single virus in the late 1940s or early 1950s.

For decades at least, the early human infections went unnoticed on a continent where life routinely is harsh, short and cheap.

Then, on June 5, 1981, the Centers for Disease Control in Atlanta reported five young actively homosexual men in Los Angeles had a new, mysterious and as yet unnamed illness that attacked the immune system and caused a type of pneumonia. A month later, it reported an odd surge among homosexual men in the number of cases of Karposi Sarcoma, a rare cancer now linked to AIDS.

In the early days of the epidemic, just the mention of AIDS elicited snickers and jokes. Few saw it as a major threat. It was the "Gay Plague," and for some, divine retribution for a lifestyle Christian fundamentalists and other conservatives consider deviant and sinful.

When heterosexuals began to contract the disease through blood transfusions and other medical procedures, they were often portrayed as "innocent" victims of a disease spread by the immoral and licentious behavior of others.

The initial reactions and prejudices associated with AIDS slowed the early response to the epidemic and limited the funding. Too much time, money and effort was spent on the wrong priorities, Stirling aid.

"Over the last 25 years, the one real weakness was the search for the magic bullet. There is no quick and simple fix," he said. "But with the recent successes we are starting to see the end of epidemic."

"There is evidence to suggest we are at the tipping point," said Stirling.

The pace of change over the last couple of years suggests the number of new infections can be reduced by 50 to 60 percent by 2020 — if the momentum continues.

"It is surely possible, it is doable," Stirling said.

AIDS toll may reach 100 million in Africa