Prophecy, Drought, Earthquakes, Famine, Pestilence, War, and Strange Weather.

[Shammu]

2005 set to be second hottest year on record
Fri Oct 14, 2005 8:39 AM ET

By Gerrard Wynn

LONDON (Reuters) - 2005 will be the second or third warmest year on record globally, Britain's national weather service said on Friday, as climate concerns build among people in polar and low-lying areas and in the insurance and utility industries.

"Whether it is second or third depends on how Siberia reacts between now and the end of the year," said Wayne Elliott, Met Office spokesman.

"1998 was the warmest ever, 2005 is looking at being second. It will be another very warm year generally, which is in line with global climate change research."

The Met Office bases its measurements on both land and sea temperatures.

After 1998, the four hottest years globally were the last four years, according to Met Office data going back to 1861. The second hottest year was 2002, followed by 2003, 2004 and 2001.

The trend adds weight to concern among many scientists that the world is hotting up and that human activity including burning of fossil fuels and generation of "greenhouse gases" by industry is playing a major part.

Two recent hurricanes have left the United States with tight fuel supplies, energy companies say.

Meanwhile, in Europe Portugal and Spain have experienced their worst droughts ever recorded, and further east, floods and torrential rain drenched Switzerland, Germany, Austria and EU membership-candidates Bulgaria and Romania.

"The vast majority of scientists would now say that there is a significant, substantial human effect on the environment," Craig Hutton, project manager at the GeoData Institute, University of Southampton, said on Friday.

"I think that's good enough to get on and start to plan in reality for the effects of climate change."

Southampton University is working with IBM to research a early warning system for UK flood responses, to anticipate storm and tidal surges.

2005 set to be second hottest year on record

[Shammu]

US says bird flu in Europe a "troubling sign"
Fri Oct 14, 2005 8:49 AM ET13

 By Darren Schuettler

HANOI (Reuters) - The spread of Asia's deadly bird flu to Europe is a "troubling sign" and the world must work faster to prepare for a potential flu pandemic, U.S. Health Secretary Mike Leavitt said on Friday.

Speaking to reporters in Hanoi on a tour of bird flu-hit Southeast Asia, Leavitt said outbreaks in Turkey and Romania underscored the need for urgent action against the virus which appeared to be spreading through migratory birds.

"The world is a biological dangerous place right now. An enemy avian virus known as H5N1 is establishing a presence in nations all over the world," Leavitt said.

He said outbreaks "that have occurred in Turkey and Romania and other countries along the natural flyways are certainly troubling signs".

European countries tightened border controls on poultry and poultry products on Thursday after tests confirmed a bird flu outbreak in Turkey was H5N1, the same virus which has killed more than 60 people in Asia since 2003.

Test results to determine the strain of virus infecting three ducks in Romania were expected on Saturday.

Experts suspect migratory birds, usually wildfowl which are silent carriers of the virus, may have carried the disease to Europe along their natural migratory routes.

"It will require a measured response on all of our parts if this continues to occur, as it inevitably will," Leavitt said.

The World Health Organization said on Friday the chances of human cases had increased with the virus' spread into new areas and it urged intensified surveillance of flocks and humans.

"STOP IT IN BIRDS"

Leavitt, accompanied by top U.S. health experts on the fact-finding mission to Thailand, Cambodia, Laos and Vietnam -- where 41 people have died since 2003 -- said fighting the disease at farm level was a top priority.

"H5N1 is mostly an animal disease today. To stop it from spreading to humans, we have to stop it in birds," Leavitt said in a region where the virus is endemic despite the slaughter of millions of birds.

Animal health experts say Thailand and Vietnam have had some success in containing bird flu, but still have not wiped it out.

The picture is more bleak in poorer countries such as Cambodia and Laos. Public health infrastructure is minimal and government budgets cannot afford a mass poultry vaccination program such as the one underway in Vietnam.

The United States has pledged $25 million to the region for training, supplies, lab equipment, village-based surveillance systems and public education.

Equally important is transparency in a region where some nations have been accused of blocking proper monitoring by failing to report cases or giving too few samples to scientists.

"While there may be short term costs to us individually or collectively, the burden of being secretive and lacking transparency would be catastrophic," Leavitt said.

US says bird flu in Europe a "troubling sign"

[Soldier4Christ]

Wilma Forms, Tying 1933 Atlantic Ocean Hurricane Season Record

Oct. 17 (Bloomberg) -- The Atlantic Ocean hurricane season tied a 1933 record for the busiest ever as Tropical Storm Wilma formed today over the Caribbean Sea, causing crude oil and natural gas prices to rise.

Wilma was about 220 miles (354 kilometers) south-southeast of Grand Cayman at 11 a.m. Miami time, the U.S. National Hurricane Center said in an online advisory. The system is the 21st named tropical storm of the 2005 hurricane season.

The storm, which has winds of 45 mph (72 kph), is forecast to strengthen in the next 24 hours as it moves west toward Honduras, Belize and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula. Wilma may become a hurricane by tomorrow, the center said. Wilma is moving very erratically and may take different paths, said Mark McInerney, a meteorologist at the National Hurricane Center in Miami.

``If it gets in the Gulf, the water is warm there, so it would have fuel to intensify,'' McInerney said today in an interview. ``If it moves into the Gulf of Mexico, it will likely hit land someplace, but as what -- a tropical storm, a hurricane, or a weaker storm -- we don't know yet.''

Crude oil and gasoline prices rose on concern Wilma may enter the Gulf, disrupting oil output that's 67 percent below normal following Hurricanes Katrina and Rita.

`Taking No Chances'

``The storm may lead to further evacuations,'' said Michael Fitzpatrick, vice president of energy risk management with Fimat USA in New York. ``If the storm moves into the Gulf it will lead to a suspension of repairs and there may even be a contraction in production. We're taking no chances.''

Wilma's winds extended 70 miles from the system's center as the system moved southward at about 5 mph. The storm probably will turn west in the next 24 hours, the hurricane center said. Rainfall of 4 inches to 6 inches is possible in the Cayman Islands and Jamaica, with as much as a foot in some areas. Honduras may receive as much as 10 inches of rain.

With six weeks left of the June 1-Nov. 30 season, this year already has set records. Katrina was the costliest ever U.S. natural disaster when it slammed into Louisiana in August, killing about 1,250 people. Spain was hit this month by its first tropical cyclone ever.

A tropical storm warning and hurricane watch were in effect for the Cayman Islands, indicating such conditions are possible within 24 and 36 hours, respectively. The Honduran government issued a tropical storm warning from the Nicaragua border west to Cabo Camaron.

On Alert

Anyone living on the Gulf Coast from the Florida Keys to Texas should be on the alert, Richard Knabb, a meteorologist at the center said in a telephone interview.

Hurricanes are measured on the five-step Saffir-Simpson scale of intensity. The weakest hurricanes are rated Category 1, with sustained winds of at least 73 mph. Category 2 hurricanes have minimum winds of 96 mph.

Crude oil for November delivery rose $1.14, or 1.8 percent, to $63.77 a barrel at 10:01 a.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Futures have declined 10 percent since reaching a record $70.85 a barrel on Aug. 30, the day after Katrina made landfall. Prices are up 16 percent from a year ago.

Gasoline for November delivery surged 5.49 cents, or 3.1 percent, to $1.8035 a gallon in New York, the biggest gain since Sept. 28. Prices have dropped 38 percent from a record $2.92 reached on Aug. 31. Gasoline is up 28 percent from a year ago.

This year's Atlantic hurricane season was already the busiest since systematic aircraft reconnaissance of weather systems began in 1944. Until this year, that mark stood at 19, in 1995, though less reliable data indicate 1933 had 21 storms, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

All the letters of the alphabet except Q, U, X, Y and Z are used to name storms. After Wilma, the storms will be named for the letters in the Greek alphabet: Alpha, Beta, Gamma, Delta and so on.

[Soldier4Christ]

Three strong earthquakes hit Turkey
Ankara, Turkey   
17 October 2005 04:11
Three violent earthquakes shook western Turkey on Monday, cracking walls, collapsing chimneys and sending 30 people to hospital, including a man who reportedly threw himself from the fifth floor of a building in panic.

Fear gripped many people who refused to enter buildings, preferring to wait in parks in case of aftershocks, witnesses said.

Anatolia news agency said about 30 people were hospitalised, mostly for treatment of fractures, after they jumped off balconies or windows. One man who had hurled himself off the fifth floor of a building was in a critical condition, it said.

The first quake occurred beneath the Aegean Sea at 8.45am local time.

Measured at 5,7 points on the Richter scale by the Kandilli observatory and six by the Athens observatory, it was felt in several Turkish towns on the Aegean coast and on the nearby Greek islands of Chios and Samos.

A second earthquake, measuring 5,9, struck at 12.47pm with its epicentre beneath the Aegean Sea off the town of Seferihisar, which lies 40km south-west of Izmir, Turkey's third-largest city, a spokesperson for Kandilli observatory said.

A third temblor, with an intensity of 5,6 on the Richter scale, followed eight minutes later, the Kandilli observatory said.

Officials said the quakes did not cause extensive structural damage.

But schools were closed for the rest of the day and Tuesday in Izmir and the surrounding Izmir province.

In the coastal resort of Urla, several house chimneys collapsed and cracks opened up in the walls of buildings after the first tremblor, said the town mayor Selcuk Karaosmanoglu.

"The second quake was extremely strong. It shook the area quite violently," said an accountant from Izmir, Umut Taskin.

Turkey's top seismologist warned of the threat of more earthquakes in a region, which is crossed by several seismological fault lines.

"These earthquakes can continue over a few days," Gulay Barbarosoglu, the head of the Kandilli observatory, told the NTV news channel.

About 20 000 people died in two massive tremors in the country's heavily industrialised north-west in August and November 1999. -- Sapa-AFP

[Soldier4Christ]

Volcano erupts in PNG’s West New Britain

Posted at 01:52 on 18 October, 2005 UTC

Experts from the Rabaul Volcano Observatory in Papua New Guinea are being rushed to Talasea district in West New Britain province to assess the sudden eruption of dormant Mt Garbuna volcano at the weekend.

The National newspaper quotes a report from the West New Britain Provincial Disaster Office that Mt Garbuna started erupting late Sunday evening and continued into Monday morning when it subsided.

However, another report from the disaster office last night says volcanic activity intensified again yesterday afternoon.

The paper quotes provincial disaster office director, Major Paul Kaliop, as saying ash from the mountain fell on Garu village and its surroundings, contaminating water sources.

It says more than 20,000 people in the Talasea district could be affected by any further eruption.

[Soldier4Christ]

Stay off popular volcano, Vanuatu official warns visitors

Posted at 03:46 on 18 October, 2005 UTC

Vanuatu authorities are warning people to stay off Mount Yasur volcano on Tanna island.

The mountain is one of the most accessible volcanos in the world and it’s a favourite spot for tourists.

The general manager of the department of geology and mines, Esline Garae, says seismic monitors have measured a surge in activity over the last two weeks.

    “The volcanic seismicity, recorded at the proximity of Yasur, shows an increase of activity since mid-September 2005, and this could be the warning signs of high explosive activity.”

Ms Garae says ash from eruptions on Mount Yasur usually doesn’t fall near settlements.

The Vanuatu Tourism Office is urging visitors to respect Ms Garae’s advice.

[Soldier4Christ]

Warning: Possible Volcano Eruption in El Salvador

San Salvador, Oct 17 (Prensa Latina) Salvadoran National Service of Territorial Research (SNET) warned that LLamatepec, a volcano in western El Salvador between Santa Ana and Sonsonate departments could erupt.

Crater activity is anomalous, changing and unpredictable and, according to the persistent vibrations, experts expect an eruption similar to that causing two deaths on October 1, when more than 6,000 people had to be evacuated.

Once seismic activity started, authorities declared state of alert in areas around the volcano and prohibited tourists from ascending to Cerro Verde.

The abrupt eruptions of the volcano caused underground waters to rise in gotcha9an and La Floresta, near the city of Izalco, citizens reported.

LLamatepec is being monitored by a group of experts from SNET and Salvadoran State University, who have detected a slight increase in emissions of sulfur dioxide.

According to official data, this volcano, which last erupted in 1904, becomes active every one hundred years.

[Soldier4Christ]

Disease threatens Guatemalan mudslide survivors

Doctors fear that overcrowding and septic water could lead to a rash of illness among survivors of a landslide that swept away a Guatemalan village this month.

Thousands of people from the Maya Indian village of Panabaj are crammed into churches and houses in the nearby village of Santiago.

The Government is racing to build temporary shelters.

"The worst problem now is the risk of epidemics," said Alfonso Verdu, coordinator of Doctors Without Borders in Guatemala.

"I don't think the situation in Santiago is under control."

Mr Verdu says doctors have seen dozens of cases of diarrhoea among survivors as well as dysentery, hepatitis A and chicken pox.

Thousands of people were vaccinated against tetanus last week in the main square of Santiago.

Panabaj sat between a volcano and Lake Atitlan's turquoise waters in spectacular countryside that draws thousands of American and European backpackers every year.

But it disappeared on October 5 under a deadly slick of mud, rocks and trees that poured hundreds of metres down the volcano after Hurricane Stan drenched the region with rain.

Police are preventing people from entering the stinking remains of the mostly buried town where authorities say there could be more than 1,000 dead.

But stray dogs are roaming among the ruins.

Santiago Mayor Diego Esquina estimates 4,400 people survived the disaster and more than 150 of them are living at a convent in the village.

In one dank, small room, 20 people sleep on dirty mattresses.

Happy to be alive, they say they are afraid to go to temporary buildings being built by the Government because they are too close to where the mudslide occurred.

"I'm not going to that shelter," survivor Maria Ratzan said.

Panabaj has been declared a mass grave and is now covered in white lime to prevent the spread of disease.

[Soldier4Christ]

Earthquake death toll could top 54,000
Last Updated Mon, 17 Oct 2005 19:37:33 EDT
CBC News

Officials from Pakistan-controlled Kashmir say the Oct. 8 earthquake's death toll will be "not less than 40,000" in that state alone, meaning that the disaster may have claimed more than 54,000 lives in all of Pakistan and India.

About 13,000 people died in other parts of Pakistan, with officials saying the toll could jump sharply as relief teams reach more remote villages. So far, 1,350 people have been reported dead in Indian-controlled parts of Kashmir.

The grim numbers were released Sunday, as heavy rain and lightning storms continued to ground helicopters trying to bring aid to northern Pakistan, where almost 2 million people are homeless because of the 7.6-magnitude earthquake.

Flooding on many roads also halted the delivery of aid by truck.

The storms eased on Monday, allowing deliveries to resume.

Survivors have hiked out from remote regions in search of aid, while soldiers, relief workers and volunteers continue to carry in supplies by foot.

About 65,000 people were injured in the earthquake. Many have yet to be treated, and there have been reports of infection and gangrene setting in.

One-fifth of ravaged villages still beyond reach

Nine days after the quake, both Pakistani government officials and the U.S. State Department estimated Sunday that one in five villages in the stricken zone had yet to receive any help.

A pilot for the U.S. military who had been flying over Kashmiri villages to try to assess the damage told Reuters news agency that many of them looked fine from above, but were actually only intact roofs lying on the ground.

Many survivors say nothing remains of their homes.

"The whole village is gone," said Rubina Mahmoud, whose village of Bandhi Thanoliya was wiped out by a landslide that killed 30 people.

"Three members of our family are buried under the mud," Mahmoud told CBC News.

"We'll never be able to rebuild," said Raveen Achtar. "There are big cracks in the ground. It will be difficult to go back to our land."

100,000 more tents needed, military says

Through the region on Sunday, many homeless survivors searched desperately for blankets and battles broke out over tents amid temperatures that have dropped to 5 C in most places and below zero in higher altitudes.

Relief agencies are also racing to set up shelter before winter sets in this month.

Maj. Gen. Farooq Ahmed Khan, the Pakistani relief commissioner, said 29,000 tents and 118,000 blankets had been distributed – but estimated that 100,000 tents were needed.

"There are bound to be casualties because of bad weather. How much? I don't know," he told a news conference.

Huge quantities of relief supplies have arrived during the past week and aid workers said there was enough food for everyone – but distribution was often chaotic.

More than 200 military personnel in Canada's Disaster Assistance Response Team (DART) left by plane for Pakistan on Sunday. The team expects to be fully operational within days.

[Soldier4Christ]

Light earthquake reported off California coast
10.17.2005, 04:42 AM

LOS ANGELES (AFX) - An earthquake measuring 4.6 on the Richter scale occurred late Sunday afternoon off the coast of California, the US Geological Survey said.

The quake struck 52 miles south-southeast from San Clemente Island, CA, and 70 miles west-southwest from Coronado, CA at 2111 GMT, the USGS said in a preliminary report.

The USGS described the temblor as a 'light earthquake.'

A spate of quakes, including one of 7.0 magnitude in June, has raised concerns about the possibility of a strong earthquake hitting the region.

[Soldier4Christ]

Earthquake shakes Greece's eastern Aegean islands
17 Oct 2005 06:50:22 GMT
Source: Reuters

ATHENS, Oct 17 (Reuters) - An earthquake measuring magnitude 6 rocked Greece's eastern Aegean islands at around 0545 GMT on Monday, but no injuries or serious damage were reported, the Athens Geodynamic Institute said.

The earthquake's epicenter was located near the Turkish coastline, about 250 kilometres east of Athens and jolted the islands of Samos, Ikaria and Chios.

"So far no damage has been reported in Samos prefecture," the chief of the island's fire department told Greek TV.

[Soldier4Christ]

Earthquake shakes southern Peru, no damages

Associated Press

Lima (Peru), October 18, 2005

A moderate earthquake has shaken Peru's southern coast, causing alarm in some cities and towns but no damage or injuries, the country's Geophysics Institute said.

The quake with a preliminary magnitude of 5.8 struck at 2.22 pm on Monday close to the town of Tarata, 930 kilometres southeast of the capital, Lima, the institute said in a statement.

Tremors were felt strongly in Peru's second largest city, Arequipa, 750 kilometres southeast of Lima, and in the country's southernmost city, Tacna, where people rushed from buildings into open streets and plazas, local radio reports said.

[Soldier4Christ]

Chilly winter forecast for U.S. Northeast - EarthSat


NEW YORK, Oct 17 (Reuters) - U.S. households should brace for a frosty winter, particularly in the Northeast which is the biggest consumer of heating oil around, private forecaster EarthSat predicted on Monday.

"The current winter outlook is colder than last year and much closer to the 30-year normal for the national average expectation," EarthSat said in its revised outlook.

"The focus of the coldest anomalies should be more frequently toward the East Coast rather than the Mid-Continent," EarthSat said.

The outlook is bad news for Americans already facing record high prices for heating oil and natural gas.

The EarthSat forecast showed natural gas consumption-weighted heating degree days -- a measure of temperature below 65 degrees Fahrenheit -- averaging about 7.5 percent greater than last year for December through February.

The forecast will make this winter roughly in line with the 30-year average, but significantly colder than the five and 10-year averages, EarthSat said.

"We've had a very active hurricane season, a weak El Nino, and a hot summer. These things tend to translate into a colder winter," said EarthSat's Matt Rogers.

The U.S. West is expected to average warmer than normal.

[Soldier4Christ]

Heavy Snow Falls On Mount Washington

POSTED: 11:16 am EDT October 17, 2005

MOUNT WASHINGTON, N.H. -- Just last week, the summit of Mount Washington was basking in 50-degree record temperatures, but that has all changed.

Winter weather came early to the highest point in the northeastern United States. As of Monday morning, more than 18 inches of snow and ice had accumulated on the summit, which was being hit by blowing snow and sleet.

[Soldier4Christ]

Hurricane Wilma blamed for 10 deaths in Haiti

CTV.ca News Staff
 
Updated: Tue. Oct. 18 2005 11:29 PM ET

Ten deaths in Haiti from mudslides have been blamed on hurricane Wilma, which has been upgraded to a category 2 storm.

Forecasters expect Wilma to grow into a Category 4 storm on a scale of five, with winds of more than 210 kilometres per hour when it crosses from the Caribbean Sea into the Gulf of Mexico on Friday.

The U.S. National Hurricane Center has the storm crossing southern Florida on Saturday -- although a hurricane's path is difficult to predict.

At 8 p.m. on Tuesday, Wilma was centred about 295 km south of Grand Cayman and about 325 km east-northeast of the Nicaragua-Honduras border. It was moving northwest at about 13 km/h.

With maximum sustained winds near 160 km/h, forecasters expect Wilma to further intensify over the next 24 hours.

The storm's outer bands were already causing high winds, rain and surf on the Atlantic coasts of Honduras and Nicaragua.

Emergency crews in Honduras are preparing to evacuate 10,000 people from resort areas potentially exposed to the storm.

"All interests in western Cuba, the Yucatan Peninsula, the Florida Peninsula, and the Florida Keys should monitor the progress of Wilma during the next several days," the U.S. National Hurricane Center said in a public advisory.

The Keys were also planning an exodus.

Forecasters are predicting the storm will travel west and then turn toward the west-northwest, dumping roughly 10 to 15 cm of rain on the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, Haiti, southeastern Cuba and Honduras.

The official long-range track has Wilma crossing the Gulf between southwest Cuba and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula on Friday, before curving east toward Florida's southern Gulf coast over the weekend.

"There's no scenario now that takes it toward Louisiana or Mississippi, but that could change," Max Mayfield, director of the Hurricane Center told The Associated Press.

Prompting fears the hurricane could move in on the Gulf Coast, which has already been battered this year by Hurricanes Katrina, Rita and Dennis, New Orleans Mayor Ray Nagin warned residents they must be prepared for yet another evacuation.

On Monday, Wilma entered the history books as the season's 21st named storm, matching a 72-year-old record for the highest number of Atlantic storms in a single season.

The last time this many storms formed since record-keeping began 154 years ago was in 1933.

Having become the season's 12th hurricane, Wilma also ties a 1969 record for the most hurricanes in one term.

The six-month hurricane season ends Nov. 30.