SCIENTISTS AIR NEW WARNING OF MAJOR MAYON ERUPTION
LEGAZPI CITY, AUGUST 11, 2006 (STAR) Scientists yesterday issued renewed warnings of a major explosion at the erupting Mayon volcano, as steaming lava poured down its slopes and thousands huddled in evacuation camps.
Mayon’s chief monitor, Ernesto Corpuz, said the volcano, which has been rumbling and oozing molten rock for about three weeks, may erupt in spectacular fashion in the coming days.
"It is at this time that the volcanic activity could be gearing up for a bigger explosion," Corpuz told AFP.
"This is going to be a critical time," he said, adding: "This kind of unusual quiet is ominous."
Official warnings about Mayon, the country’s most active volcano which has claimed more than 1,000 lives over the years, have forced the evacuation of some 40,000 villagers from around the central mountain.
While obvious signs of activity have slackened in the past two days, lava continues to pour down gullies on the slopes of the picturesque, cone-shaped mountain which is a major tourist attraction.
About 40,000 people have been evacuated from villages within a six to eight-kilometer danger zone since Monday in case of an explosion that could cover surrounding areas with deadly volcanic ash.
The residents have been herded into makeshift evacuation centers, mainly school buildings where sometimes as many as 50 people are sleeping on cold cement classroom floors.
The evacuated villagers are living on rations of rice, instant noodles and canned sardines and meat. Local officials warn that money for their upkeep might soon run out if the crisis is prolonged.
There are also fears that the overcrowding in the evacuation centers could spawn an epidemic.
The 8,070-foot Mayon has shown increasing unrest since mid-July and on Monday, after a series of powerful explosions, government volcanologists warned a dangerous eruption could take place within days.
However, crimson streams of lava could still be seen trickling down Mayon’s slopes at night and a huge column of steaming lava is still moving through the Bonga gully.
Soldiers have been assigned to patrol forests on the foothills to keep residents out of the danger zone. However some farmers and herdsmen still sneak into the area to check on their crops and to safeguard their homes.
The troops said they are seeing fewer farmers braving the danger zone now that the lava has moved lower.
"They are more afraid now," one soldier said.
Not waning
The number of volcanic quakes detected in Mayon fell to only three on Wednesday from 109 on Monday and 21 on Tuesday. The amount of sulphur dioxide expelled also has been falling, the Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (Phivolcs) said.
Phivolcs resident volcanologist Ed Laguerta said that although seismic sensors recorded a minor explosion at 2:07 p.m. Wednesday, the volcano is "apparently quiet."
Speaking from his Lignon Hill Observatory, Laguerta said "this is not a waning phase." The volcano is still in its quiet eruption stage, characterized by lava flows and sudden explosions, he added.
"If (Mt. Mayon) is in the waning phase, all the significant parameters like volcanic quakes, sulfur gas emission, lava flows should gradually decrease."
Mayon’s sulfur gas emission rate dropped to 6,573 tons a day yesterday from 7,829 Wednesday, a Phivolcs bulletin reported.
The same bulletin said the apparent lull in Mayon’s activity reflects its status of unrest and that the slightest changes in its sulfur gas emission rate is still significant.
Seismic sensors also recorded 501 episodes of tremors generated on the slopes by collapsing fragments of advancing lava.
Alert level 4 remains hoisted over Mt. Mayon, meaning there is still a high probability of a hazardous explosive eruption.
As this developed, Corpus said they are still closely watching the effect of the full moon on Mayon’s sustained abnormal behavior, saying it is too early to tell if the increased gravitational pull of the moon has no effect at all.
"Oftentimes, the effect of the gravitation pull event on Mayon’s eruption is delayed," Corpus said.
Wider danger zone?
The Phivolcs Volcano Monitoring and Eruption Prediction Division said it might again extend the danger zone in the southeast sector of Mayon Volcano from eight to 12 kilometers depending on the intensity of the expected volcanic eruption.
Supervising science research specialist Julio Sabit said if a major eruption happens within days, they might extend the danger zone from 10 to 12 kilometers.
Phivolcs Director Renato Solidum said that they were closely monitoring the volcano because it may erupt at any time.
In its bulletin yesterday, Phivolcs has recorded minor explosions and only three volcanic earthquakes over the past 24 hours.
"This apparent lull in the activity along with slight changes in the SO2 emission rate is still significant and reflects the unusual prevailing state of unrest of the volcano," the bulletin said.
Phivolcs earlier said that changes or large swings in activity, along with recent explosions, were indicators of the variability of the conditions of the magma system inside the volcano.
The Extended Danger Zone (EDZ) from the summit crater is seven kilometers, the statement said, as the Phivolcs advised the public about the strong possibility of evacuation in case volcanic activity intensifies.
It was not clear whether there were people living within the possible expanded danger zone.
Provincial disaster management office chief Cedric Daep said some 7,918 families or 38,168 people residing within the six-kilometer radius permanent danger zone, as well as the extended danger zones on the south flank of the volcano, have been evacuated. — Celso Amo, Cet Dematera, Helen Flores, Edu Punay Mayen Jaymalin, AFP
SCIENTISTS AIR NEW WARNING OF MAJOR MAYON ERUPTION