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nChrist
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« Reply #1 on: February 04, 2016, 05:35:13 PM » |
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________________________________________ The Patriot Post Digest 2-3-2016 From The Federalist Patriot Free Email Subscription ________________________________________
It’s important to note we’ve completed a contest in just one of 50 states — one that accounts for only 30 of the GOP’s 2,472 delegates. New Hampshire, with 23 delegates, will account for even less, though with the exception of 1996 and 2000, the Granite State has chosen the eventual nominee in every contested primary since 1968.
These two states have outsized importance because they represent two very different constituencies early in the nominating process, and any candidate who doesn’t win one of those two states is highly unlikely to win the presidency19. In the last 40 years, only Bill Clinton lost both and still moved into the White House. With Ted Cruz having won Iowa and Donald Trump well ahead in polling in New Hampshire, a loss there makes it difficult for any other candidate to justify staying in the race.
That said, Rubio, though he didn’t win Iowa and is unlikely to win New Hampshire, has a more plausible reason to stay in. South Carolina is after New Hampshire, and in that state he has been endorsed by two of its most popular elected officials, Sen. Tim Scott and Rep. Trey Gowdy. Not too long after South Carolina comes the primary in Rubio’s delegate-rich home state of Florida.
Trump needs to win New Hampshire and then win either South Carolina or Nevada to validate his long ride atop the GOP primary polls. The shocking loss in Iowa damaged his aura of invincibility, and his campaign, based primarily on the idea that he is a winner, may find itself struggling without convincing wins in the next few races. Trump has very deep and loyal support, but he’s not winning over undecided voters like Cruz and Rubio did in Iowa.
Cruz will need to consolidate his win in Iowa with a win in either South Carolina or Nevada to be well-positioned going into the "SEC Primary,” but even second- or third-place finishes in those states won’t be fatal. Cruz is poised to do very well in the Southern states, including his home state of Texas which, at 155 delegates, is the second most delegate-rich state behind California. Cruz also has the benefit of having as much cash on hand as his next four rivals combined20 (other than Trump, who is self-funded). Cruz has a very sophisticated analytical, social media and ground game, and he looks to be in it for the long haul. His win in Iowa will only improve his fundraising efforts.
Rubio needs to place in the top three of the next few races leading into the SEC Primary. If he succeeds, notwithstanding recent establishment attacks he may eventually become the non-establishment candidate most palatable to the establishment. And there’s a big difference between being palatable to the establishment and actually being establishment.
In recent weeks, the establishment has become cozy with Trump21, but if Trump’s fortunes fall, and if Jeb Bush, John Kasich and Chris Christie continue to run campaigns from the Witness Protection Program, we may see the establishment rally to Rubio, if for no other reason than to ensure the hated Cruz does not win the nomination.
Only one thing is certain in this election cycle: If anyone tells you they know who will emerge victorious, it’s time to fit them for a straightjacket.
MORE ORIGINAL PERSPECTIVE
ANALYSIS: An Emerging Democrat Debacle22 This Is YUGE!23 Dept. of Education Is an Informational Security Threat24 Just Who Is Teaching Sexual Morality in the Nation?25 U.S. Begins Oil Exports26 Zika Virus: The New Ebola?27
BEST OF RIGHT OPINION
Michelle Malkin: Chicken Little Chuckie Schumer: America’s Disease-Fighting Phony28 Terence Jeffrey: Will GOP Congress 'Affirm’ Legitimacy of State-Owned Businesses?29 Walter Williams: Isn’t It Strange?30
For more, visit Right Opinion31.
TOP HEADLINES
Rand Paul to Suspend Presidential Campaign32 Ruling: Ted Cruz Is a ‘Natural Born Citizen’33 New Video Alleges Planned Parenthood Used Accounting Gimmicks to Hide Profit From Sale of Fetuses34
For more, visit Patriot Headline Report35
OPINION IN BRIEF
Michelle Malkin: “Latin America’s Zika virus is the latest undocumented immigrant to hit our shores, but have no fear. Self-appointed Zika Warrior Prince Charles Schumer has declared that he is here to stop it. The New York Democrat has a ‘three-point plan’ of attack to build a ‘firewall’ that will prevent an outbreak of the mosquito-borne illness from spreading across our mainland. … While he makes theatrical grand gestures to stop foreign viruses from entering through the front porch, he and his amnesty-promoting pals in both parties have left the side and back entries swinging wide open for illegal immigration. People from Central and South America … make up nearly 15 percent of the illegal immigrant population in the U.S. They flooded the border in record numbers in 2013 as Schumer and company were pushing mass amnesty on Capitol Hill — and as President Obama was implementing blanket deportation freezes in advance of his executive illegal immigrant waiver policies. The Democrat-manufactured border surge ushered in a resurgence of tropical diseases across the Southwest. Meanwhile, laborers here illegally and amnestied migrants who have never been screened for disease obtained Obama work permits to hold low-wage jobs in places like Chipotle, which shut down scores of its restaurants over the past three months after two separate E. coli outbreaks. … The Beltway posturing of open-borders engineers is enough to make you sick.”
SHORT CUTS
Insight: “Do not blame Caesar, blame the people of Rome who have so enthusiastically acclaimed and adored him and rejoiced in their loss of freedom and danced in his path and given him triumphal processions. Blame the people who hail him when he speaks in the Forum of the new wonderful good society which shall now be Rome’s, interpreted to mean more money, more ease, more security, and more living fatly at the expense of the industrious.” —Justice Millard Fillmore Caldwell (1897-1984)
Upright: “The real source of power in politics resides in personalities, not parties. It’s been hard to see this until recently because the personalities of old were career politicians — Bill Clinton, George W. Bush, Barack Obama — hiding behind the partisan light show like the man behind the Wizard of Oz. Whether or not Trump and Sanders go on to win the nomination, they’ve already played a historic role. They’ve exposed the parties as the weaklings they’ve long been.” —Jonah Goldberg
Excuses: “Because I was told I could not do well in Iowa, I spent very little there — a fraction of Cruz & Rubio. Came in a strong second. Great honor.” —Donald Trump, who led almost every Iowa poll for months but somehow had low expectations
Biggest (Sore) Loser: “Ted Cruz didn’t win Iowa, he stole it. That is why all of the polls were so wrong and why he got far more votes than anticipated. Bad! … Based on the fraud committed by Senator Ted Cruz during the Iowa Caucus, either a new election should take place or Cruz results nullified.” —Donald Trump, who initially tweeted Cruz “illegally stole” Iowa (The fact that Bernie Sanders, who unlike Trump was actually in a near-deadlock with Clinton, is acting like the adult here speaks volumes.)
Please no: “Who’s up for doing the Iowa Caucuses over again on both sides? C'mon, it’ll be fun.” —John Hayward
Observations: “[Donald Trump] says fraud. Iowa GOP is forced to respond. Maybe RNC is forced to respond too. He declares race unfair, launches independent bid.” —Gabriel Malor (And that’s exactly what Trump said he’d do if he wasn’t “treated fairly.”)
And last… “So, it turns out that you can’t call Iowa voters ‘stupid,’ skip a debate in Des Moines because you don’t like the moderators and still expect to prevail in the state’s caucuses. Who knew?” —WSJ columnist Jason Riley
Semper Vigilans Fortis Paratus et Fidelis! Managing Editor Nate Jackson
Join us in daily prayer for our Patriots in uniform — Soldiers, Sailors, Airmen, Marines and Coast Guardsmen — standing in harm’s way in defense of Liberty, and for their families.
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