Wars And Rumors Of Wars

[Shammu]

Russian response will go beyond diplomacy
Aug 20 01:42 PM US/Eastern

MOSCOW (AP) - Russia says its response to the further development of a U.S. missile shield in Poland will go beyond diplomacy.

Russia's Foreign Ministry issued a statement saying the U.S. missile shield plans are clearly aimed at weakening Russia.

The U.S. says the missile defense system is aimed at protecting the U.S. and Europe from future attacks from states like Iran.

The United States and Poland signed a deal Wednesday to place a U.S. missile defense base just 115 miles from Russia's westernmost fringe.

AP's earlier story is the post before this one, in Pastor Rogers post.

Russian response will go beyond diplomacy

Foxnews also just said that Russia is cutting all ties with NATO.

[Barbara]

Russia warns of response to US missile shield

After Warsaw and Washington announced the agreement on the deal last week, top Russian Gen. Anatoly Nogovitsyn warned that Poland is risking attack, and possibly a nuclear one, by deploying the American missile defense system, Russia's Interfax news agency reported.

This is heating up pretty fast...haven't heard that kind of threat in a very long time. "...possibly a nuclear one..."  That sounds as if they had already had designs on Poland. They must have known we were negotiating with them previously.

[Soldier4Christ]

This is heating up pretty fast...haven't heard that kind of threat in a very long time. "...possibly a nuclear one..."  That sounds as if they had already had designs on Poland. They must have known we were negotiating with them previously.

Negotiations with Poland have been ongoing for the last year and a half and it has been well publicized. The turning point in these negotiations took place when Russia invaded Georgia and statements by Russia in regards to the other nations on Russia's borders.

[HisDaughter]

Dominos anyone?

jewishworldreview

Russia's invasion of Georgia is exposing many aspects of the international system that the US-led West has studiously ignored since the fall of the Soviet Union. One old truth that deserves attention is that the domino-theory of international relations remains true. That theory asserts that events in one arena will foment similar events in other arenas.

Great powers are not the only ones that can cause dominos to fall. Small states can as well. Israel's actions make this point clearly.

This week the Olmert-Livni-Barak government voted to release another two hundred terrorists from prison. Israel's leaders claimed that after releasing terrorist murderers to Hizbullah last month, we have has no excuse for not releasing terrorist murderers to Fatah leader Mahmoud Abbas now. If Abbas cannot match Hizbullah's achievements, they argue that he will be discredited.

But as the Jerusalem Post's Khaled Abu Toameh explained Monday, there is virtually no one in the Palestinian Authority who believes that Israel will be strengthening pro-peace forces in Palestinian society by releasing Fatah terrorists from jail. Those terrorists will merely strengthen the more radical elements in Palestinian society that are generally allied with Hamas and Islamic Jihad.

Previous Israeli releases of terrorists have shown that untold numbers of Israelis will pay with our lives for the government's idiocy. But it isn't just Israel that is impacted by Israel's mistakes. Jordan too is harmed.

Just after the government announced its decision, Jordan announced that it was releasing four jihadist murderers from its prisons. The four terrorists, who killed two Israeli soldiers in 1990, had been sentenced to life in prison in Israel. Last summer, in a "confidence-building-measure" towards King Abdullah, Israel transferred them to Jordan to complete their prison terms.

If Israel cannot deny to Fatah what it granted to Hizbullah, so Jordan cannot deny to Hamas what Israel granted to Fatah and Hizbullah. Jordan cannot be stricter with murderers of Israelis than Israel is.

Jordan's recent rapprochement with Hamas follows the same pattern. According to the Saudi Al-Watan newspaper, Damascus-based Hamas leader Khaled Mashaal is scheduled to visit Jordan in the coming days as part of a general Jordanian policy to rebuild its cooperative ties with the Iranian-controlled jihadist group. Amman severed those ties in 2006.

There can be no doubt that Hamas and its sister Muslim Brotherhood organization in Jordan constitute threats to the Hashemite regime. The Jordanian government would no doubt prefer not to have anything to do with Hamas. Indeed, it would doubtlessly be pleased if the terror group was destroyed. But Jordan cannot act against Hamas on its own. Only Israel can do that.

But Israel has refused to take any action against Hamas as it has solidified its control over Gaza and has increased its influence over Judea and Samaria. Israel's inaction has compelled Jordan to appease the Iranian-controlled terror group.

Israel's refusal to acknowledge the interconnectedness of international events impacts events throughout the region. The US's strategic myopia affects events throughout the world. Recent occurrences in Pakistan bear this out.

Since the September 11, 2001 attacks the US has ignored the domestic situation in Pakistan. First it placed all its faith in Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf to act as its ally. Washington ignored Musharraf's refusal to purge the Pakistani military and powerful Inter Service Intelligence agency of its strong jihadist elements that collaborated with al Qaida and the Taliban and provided them safe haven and allowed them to take control over the provinces bordering Afghanistan.

Then, in an about face, last year Washington attempted to advance its program of democratization of the Islamic world by pressuring Musharraf to allow open elections to Pakistan's parliament. Unfortunately, the US failed to notice that the supposedly democratic contending parties all hate America and oppose taking any action against the Taliban and al Qaida.

Now that the anti-Western, "democratic" forces that the US has unleashed have forced Musharraf from power, the US has no allies at all in Pakistan's political and military-intelligence power structures with whom to collaborate in fighting the Taliban and al Qaida. Even more disturbingly, the US has no one it can trust to ensure that jihadist forces do not gain access to Pakistan's nuclear arsenal.

This latter point was made clear on Tuesday when the New York Times quoted a senior Bush administration official who noted that jihadist agents have made "steadfast efforts" to infiltrate Pakistan's nuclear laboratories. Beyond that, even Musharraf never gave the US full assurance that he was securing his country's nuclear arsenal. Musharraf steadfastly refused to give an accounting of how he spent much of the $100 million the US transferred to him for the purpose of securing his 50-100 nuclear warheads.

Although during his first term in office President George W. Bush often warned of the danger of nuclear weapons and other weapons of mass destruction falling into the hands of terrorist groups or transferred to them by state sponsors, this issue has been largely ignored in recent years. Administration officials have downplayed the significance of overt cooperation between the Taliban and al Qaida and the Pakistani military and intelligence agencies. And today, Washington's refusal to contend with that cooperation is coming back to haunt it. Now the US has no easy options for preventing the rapidly collapsing nuclear-armed Pakistani governing apparatuses from falling under the influence of the Taliban and al Qaida.

A similar situation is playing out in Lebanon. Just as the US ignored the ties between the Pakistani regime and al Qaida/Taliban, so it has ignored the significance of Iran's control of Hizbullah and Hizbullah's control of the Lebanese government.

Since the Western-allied March 14 movement forced Syria to remove its forces from Lebanon in 2005, the US has treated its leaders as reliable strategic allies. As a consequence the US refused to understand that when Lebanese Prime Minister Fuad Siniora allowed Hizbullah to join his government in 2005, he effectively placed his government at Hizbullah's mercy and so became a proxy of Iran.

The US continued to ignore Siniora's subservience to Hizbullah during the Israel-Hizbullah war in 2006. Hoping to strengthen Siniora, the US barred Israel from attacking Lebanese infrastructures serving Hizbullah's war machine. That US decision made it much more difficult for Israel to prevail in the conflict. And Israel's failure to defeat Hizbullah/Iran in 2006 paved the way for Hizbullah's seizure of power in May.

Just as the Taliban and al Qaida have taken advantage of the US's refusal to acknowledge the significance of their ties to Pakistan's military and intelligence services, so Hizbullah, Iran and Syria have exploited the US's refusal to acknowledge their control over Lebanon.

cont.

[HisDaughter]

Dominos anyone?  cont....

One of the ways Iran, Syria and Hizbullah exploit the US's refusal to come to terms with their control over Lebanon is by making that control uncontestable. To this end, Hizbullah has forged alliances with disparate groups in Lebanon and so further isolated the remaining pro-Western voices in the country.

This week Hizbullah signed a cooperation agreement with Syrian-backed al Qaida-linked Salafists in Tripoli. This move has shocked many Western observers who have insistently argued that an alliance between Shiite and Sunni jihadists is unthinkable. These observers have ignored the fact that Shiites and Sunnis have strategic alliances throughout the region. Iran has a strategic alliance with Sunni-majority Syria. It controls Hamas. It has hosted al Qaida commanders on its soil since at least late 2001.

To a degree, these blind observers' fiction of Sunni-Shiite antipathy has been abetted by the Sunnis and Shiites themselves. Understanding the West's interest in ignoring the threat they pose both separately and together, until this week they never made their alliances explicit. What Hizbullah's accord with the al-Qaida-linked Salafists in Tripoli shows is that both forces are now so convinced of the West's weakness, that they believe they have nothing to fear from openly collaborating.

Unlike events in Pakistan, which are the consequence of the nature of Pakistani society and the US's failure to acknowledge the nature of that society, the latest events in Lebanon are at least in part the consequence of Washington's impotent response to their ally Russia's invasion of the US's ally Georgia.

It is often argued that Russia fears Islamic domination no less than the West. And while Russia certainly has good reason for to be concerned about jihadist, its concern has not led it to act as an ally to the West in its fight against the jihadists. To the contrary, like Iran and Syria and their affiliated terror groups, Russia views the US as its true enemy. Like them it seeks to exploit US weaknesses to advance its own position. Russia understands that Iran's ideological foundations make it impossible for Teheran to ever reach an accord with the US. And it exploits the situation to its benefit.

Moscow built Iran a nuclear reactor. It supplies Iran and Syria with advanced weapons systems. Russia's alliance with Iran and Syria advances its interests in two ways. It weakens the US and it ensures that Russia will not be the target of an Iranian nuclear bomb.

Just as the US's failure to back Israel's bid to destroy Hizbullah in Lebanon two years ago paved the way for this week's Hizbullah-al Qaida pact, so the US's weak response to Russia's rape of Georgia has emboldened the Russians, Iranians and Syrians to expose their long-standing strategic alliance. Wednesday Iran condemned Georgia as a "Zionist" state due to its close ties with Israel. Russia returned the favor by defending Iran's satellite launch, and backing Iran's announced intention to build another six nuclear reactors.

Syrian President Bashar Assad capitalized on Russia's anti-US posture by visiting Moscow on Wednesday. Russia set the tone of his visit by condemning Israel for supplying Georgia with military assistance. It then allowed Assad to announce Moscow's intention to supply Syria with the sophisticated Iskander theater defense missile system which Syria has long sought.

Russia's exploitation of points of US weakness to advance its own position leaves the US with two options. Washington can try to give Russia a better offer than its enemies can. Or the US can work to weaken its enemies by confronting them while strengthening its allies and so force Russia into a cooperative posture. Today there is no deal that the US can offer Russia which can compete with what Russia receives from its alliances with America's enemies. So the first option is moot.

This brings us to option two which is simply the Cold War model of containment, based upon the domino theory of world affairs. Seeing as it already worked once, there is little reason not to return to it now. The US's decision to sign a strategic alliance with Poland was a first small step in the right direction. Diplomatic moves against Russia, like ending Moscow's membership in the G-7 and its association agreement with NATO should already have been carried out.

But most importantly, looking ahead, both the US and Israel should take a lesson from their enemies. They must acknowledge that when they are strong and victorious, their allies are strengthened throughout the world. And when they are weak and dissolute, their allies also pay the price of their irresponsibility.

[HisDaughter]

Dutch intel: US to strike Iran in coming weeks
By JPOST.COM STAFF
Sept 1, 2008

The Dutch intelligence service, the AIVD, has called off an operation aimed at infiltrating and sabotaging Iran's weapons industry due to an assessment that a US attack on the Islamic Republic's nuclear program is imminent, according to a report in the country's De Telegraaf newspaper on Friday.

The report claimed that the Dutch operation had been "extremely successful," and had been stopped because the US military was planning to hit targets that were "connected with the Dutch espionage action."

The impending air-strike on Iran was to be carried out by unmanned aircraft "within weeks," the report claimed, quoting "well placed" sources.

The Jerusalem Post could not confirm the De Telegraaf report.

According to the report, information gleaned from the AIVD's operation in Iran has provided several of the targets that are to be attacked in the strike, including "parts for missiles and launching equipment."

"Information from the AIVD operation has been shared in recent years with the CIA," the report said.

On Saturday, Iran's Deputy Chief of Staff General Masoud Jazayeri warned that should the United States or Israel attack Iran, it would be the start of another World War.

On Friday, Ma'ariv reported that Israel had made a strategic decision to deny Iran military nuclear capability and would not hesitate "to take whatever means necessary" to prevent Teheran from achieving its nuclear goals.

According to the report, whether the United States and Western countries succeed in thwarting the Islamic Republic's nuclear ambitions diplomatically, through sanctions, or whether a US strike on Iran is eventually decided upon, Jerusalem has begun preparing for a separate, independent military strike.

[Barbara]

WOW! 

Some very interesting news, grammyluv! Thank you for that information! There's so much happening so fast, it's hard to keep up with it all - I thank God for you and the others on this website that are so dedicated to bringing us all this information!

Honestly, to think of the times we live in, and to watch what's going on keeps me in His Word. We are called to watch, and the info I glean from these articles you all publish help me and my family to 'keep looking up!' We know 'Salvation draweth near'!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

PRAY FOR THE PEACE OF JERUSALEM, THEY SHALL PROSPER THAT LOVE THEE

[HisDaughter]

WOW! 

Some very interesting news, grammyluv! Thank you for that information! There's so much happening so fast, it's hard to keep up with it all - I thank God for you and the others on this website that are so dedicated to bringing us all this information!

Honestly, to think of the times we live in, and to watch what's going on keeps me in His Word. We are called to watch, and the info I glean from these articles you all publish help me and my family to 'keep looking up!' We know 'Salvation draweth near'!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

PRAY FOR THE PEACE OF JERUSALEM, THEY SHALL PROSPER THAT LOVE THEE

Well you do a pretty good job yourself!  I love reading the things you find and offer to us to!
My computer is about to crash and burn and I want to see how many posts I can read before it blinks out again!  It has taken me 45 min. to get on here this morning!  Drat!

[Soldier4Christ]

Russians raided Israeli airfields in Georgia
Report: Sites were to be used as forward bases in attack on Iran

UPI's Arnaud De Borchgrave is reporting that one of the reasons that Russia started a war with Georgia last month was as a pretext to raid two airfields that Tbilisi allowed Israel to use as forward bases for an attack against Iran's nuclear facilities.

    In a secret agreement between Israel and Georgia, two military airfields in southern Georgia had been earmarked for the use of Israeli fighter-bombers in the event of pre-emptive attacks against Iranian nuclear installations. This would sharply reduce the distance Israeli fighter-bombers would have to fly to hit targets in Iran. And to reach Georgian airstrips, the Israeli air force would fly over Turkey.

    The attack ordered by Saakashvili against South Ossetia the night of Aug. 7 provided the Russians the pretext for Moscow to order Special Forces to raid these Israeli facilities where some Israeli drones were reported captured.

    At a Moscow news conference, Gen. Anatoly Nogovitsyn, Russia's deputy chief of staff, said the extent of Israeli aid to Georgia included "eight types of military vehicles, explosives, landmines and special explosives for clearing minefields." Estimated numbers of Israeli trainers attached to the Georgian army range from 100 to 1,000. There were also 110 U.S. military personnel on training assignments in Georgia. Last July 2,000 U.S. troops were flown in for "Immediate Response 2008," a joint exercise with Georgian forces.

    Details of Israel's involvement were largely ignored by Israeli media lest they be interpreted as another blow to Israel's legendary military prowess, which took a bad hit in the Lebanese war against Hezbollah two years ago. Georgia's top diplomat in Tel Aviv complained about Israel's "lackluster" response to his country's military predicament and called for "diplomatic pressure on Moscow." According to the Jerusalem Post, the Georgian was told "the address for that type of pressure is Washington."

    Haaretz reported Georgian Minister Temur Yakobashvili -- who is Jewish, the newspaper said -- told Israeli army radio that "Israel should be proud of its military which trained Georgian soldiers" because he explained rather implausibly, "a small group of our soldiers were able to wipe out an entire Russian military division, thanks to Israeli training."

    The Tel Aviv-Tbilisi military axis was agreed at the highest levels with the approval of the Bush administration. The official liaison between the two entities was Reserve Brig. Gen. Gal Hirsch who commanded Israeli forces on the Lebanese border in July 2006. He resigned from the army after the Winograd Commission flayed Israel's conduct of its Second Lebanon War. Hirsch was also blamed for the seizure of two Israeli soldiers by Hezbollah.

    Israeli personnel, working for "private" companies with close ties to the Israel Defense Forces, also trained Georgian soldiers in house-to-house fighting.

De Borchgrave surprisingly leaves open the possibility that Israel may still be able to use the Georgian facilities for an attack on Iran. But Israel likely has bigger problems resulting from this raid. This is from DEBKA:

    Our sources say that if the Russians got hold of an Israeli unmanned aerial vehicle complete with sophisticated electronic reconnaissance equipment, they will have secured some of the IDF’s most secret devices for spying on Iran and Syria.

    When this happened before, Russian military engineers quickly dismantled the equipment, studied it and passed the technology on to Tehran and Damascus.

Not good. With all the 'private contractors' Israel has training Georgian troops, one has to wonder whether Israeli personnel were guarding our country's own equipment. And if they were, why did they let this happen? Does anyone wonder anymore why the Americans insist on controlling their own equipment when they bring it here?

On the other hand, DEBKA also claims that flying time from the Georgian bases to Iran's nuclear facilities is three and a half hours. Given that it's only 900 miles from the relevant points in Israel to the relevant points in Iran, if DEBKA is correct, that would not be a whole lot of savings.

[Barbara]

Wow - that's some VERY interesting information, Pastor Roger! 

Wondering what's going on over in the Gulf with our ships still in that area, and the warnings from the Dutch and the French that Iran was about to be bombed. This sounds to me like there were probably many preparations and models for that Israeli and/or US attack against ImANutJob's nuclear facilities!!

Thanks so much for sharing this!!!!

[Soldier4Christ]

You're most welcome. Yes, there is a lot that is going on that we are not being made privy to and that is understandable since much of it needs to be kept secret until it happens.

[Soldier4Christ]

Gearing Up to Strike Iran


According to a recent article (in Hebrew) in the Israeli daily Maariv, Israel’s top political and security officials have taken a decision to attack Iran’s nuclear program if nothing else is done to halt it.

Senior journalist Ben Caspit writes that “the debate between those who think everything must be done, including a military operation, to stop Iran from obtaining a nuclear bomb and those who think one can live with it, has been decided. If the Iranian regime doesn’t fall during the coming year, if the Americans don’t deliver a military blow and if the sanctions don’t break the Iranian nuclear program, Israel will have to take action. In other words: the preparations for an Israeli military option…are already underway.”

Caspit adds by way of explanation: “In the Tehran-Jerusalem-Washington triangle, things haven’t been going well. Israel is desperate to get American permission for an attack on Iran, but is not obtaining it…. The shortest flight route to Iran passes over Iraq, where the Americans are in control.”

Instead of the needed overflight codes, Caspit claims, the U.S. is offering Israel defensive radar—“‘We’ll help you defend yourselves, but we’ll prevent you from attacking,’ say the Americans.” That description dovetails with recent reports of opposition to a strike on Iran—Israeli or American—particularly by Defense Secretary Robert Gates, National Intelligence Director Mike McConnell, and Joint Chiefs of Staff chairman Michael Mullen. A security source told Caspit that “the Americans have accepted a nuclear Iran and are trying to get us to accept it.” (Another report in the rumor mill has claimed the opposite—that the U.S. is itself preparing for a strike.)

In any case, Israel, according to Caspit, is not at all inclined to countenance a nuclear Iran, and former deputy defense minister Ephraim Sneh (now head of a new political party) has been especially active trying to get that point across. Caspit says Sneh sent a document to both U.S. presidential candidates, John McCain and Barack Obama, in which he stated: “No government in Jerusalem will accept a nuclear Iran. Once it is clear Iran is at the point of nuclearization, an Israeli military action to prevent it will be on the agenda.”

To avoid that, Sneh wrote to McCain and Obama, the time has come for an all-out U.S. effort to get Europe to cooperate in imposing “real” sanctions aimed at toppling the Iranian regime. Those sanctions, Sneh believes, would have to be a complete embargo on replacement parts for Iran’s oil and refined-oil industry and a total boycott of the Iranian banking system.

Apparently aware himself of how hard that would be to achieve, Sneh recently went to Switzerland and Austria—countries that, as Caspit notes, “have announced huge investments in Iranian gas and oil fields for the next decade.”

Caspit quotes Sneh as telling him that “words about a Holocaust of Jews or Israeli security don’t impress those folks.” So instead Sneh told them it was “too bad” about their investments, “because Iddo’s going to set it all on fire”—referring to recently appointed Israeli air force chief Iddo Nehushtan. “‘Investing in Iran in 2008,’ Sneh told the Austrians, ‘is like investing in the Krupp steelworks in 1938, a high-risk investment.’ The Austrians, according to Sneh, turned pale.”

Caspit goes on to mention assessments of the likely military response to an Israeli strike on Iran—not only from Iran itself but also from Syria, Hezbollah in Lebanon, and Hamas in Gaza with their stocks of thousands of missiles. It’s with this in mind, Caspit claims, that Olmert has been holding his talks with Syrian president Bashar Assad. Olmert, according to Caspit, has said in closed forums that “Assad is a smart, sober man…. He’s capable of restraint and doesn’t belong to the world of radical Islam.”

1. Caspit’s status and contacts as an Israeli journalist mean his report shouldn’t be taken lightly. Israel is indeed in political flux, with Olmert possibly facing indictment on corruption charges and his Kadima Party set to hold primaries in less than two weeks that may further lead to general elections. Caspit describes, however, a situation where alarm at Iran’s nuclear progress is predominant, with left-of-center Labor Party figures like Sneh and Defense Minister Ehud Barak among the most alarmed. And as if Israel’s political flux wasn’t enough, its leaders will naturally be watching keenly what happens on November 4 and—if there are still no major events in the security sphere by then—will see the situation as even more stark if the winner is someone who believes everyone is basically nice and just needs to be talked to.

2. Caspit describes the Israeli leaders as, albeit deeply concerned, having a time frame that may not be realistic. Britain’s Sunday Telegraph reports that both the U.S. and Israel now fear that Russia stands to supply the sophisticated S-300 air-defense system to Iran in retaliation for Washington supporting NATO membership for Georgia and Ukraine. The S-300 is so effective that it’s said to be a “game-changer” that would rule out an Israeli raid and seriously complicate a U.S. attack. The system would take up to a year to become operational but the Israel sense of urgency would only be escalating.

3. It’s striking how loath even some Israelis like Sneh, who have no illusions about the Iranian threat, are to give up on the idea of concerted sanctions against Iran in which the Europeans would participate. In addition to Sneh’s Austrian and Swiss interlocutors, most recently Germany—led by the ostensibly conservative, pro-American Angela Merkel—has granted permission to the SPG engineering firm to build three plants in Iran for liquefying natural gas in a 100-million-euro deal. Even in the close-to-impossible scenario that Europe would at last sign on to severe sanctions, Iran’s friends outside the NATO sphere like Russia, China, and India would help it get past the rough patch.

4. Also striking is Olmert’s ongoing insistence on Assad’s reasonableness and potential benign role even in the aftermath of the Syrian leader’s trip to Moscow where he reportedly requested his own S-300 system as well as offensive weapons capable of affecting the Israeli-Syrian strategic balance. Olmert apparently is also not impressed by Assad’s praise for Russia’s invasion of Georgia and what that says about Assad’s geopolitical alignment. Although not shared by the current Bush administration, the belief in the Assad pere et fils regime’s pliability and openness to be enticed—with the Golan Heights—into the Western camp despite decades of drastic evidence to the contrary appears to be an incurable affliction.

5. Although current Israeli leaders Olmert, Barak, and Livni are aware of how badly Israel’s strategic position is complicated by the Hezbollah threat in Lebanon and the Hamas threat in Gaza, creating the possibility of a four-pronged missile barrage in addition to Syria and Iran, these leaders have not been able to draw the right conclusions or improve the situation. Despite frequent threats to act against Hamas, Barak has remained passive and has now grasped at the straw of a “ceasefire” in which Hamas is feverishly building its forces. It was largely Olmert and Livni’s bungling in the summer 2006 war that further empowered Hezbollah in Lebanon and since then they’ve done nothing to impede that process. Add this to the ongoing U.S. and Israeli impotence toward Syria, and U.S. and Western fecklessness toward Iran, and the situation is indeed acute.

[HisDaughter]

How An Iranian War Might Lead To WW3 - One Analysts Worst Case Scenario

Prophecy News Watch
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

I have served as a consultant to three very high tech aerospace firms. My specialty is conceptualizing advanced warfare especially as it relates to new cutting edge advanced weapon systems. What I see unfolding with a war on Iran is the most frightening set of circumstances I have ever seen; and I have been involved in advanced theoretical weaponry strategy and design for over 20 years.

Sometime in the weeks to months ahead, there will be a war launched against Iran. The war may be started by Israel, or by the United States, or by a NATO/EU/US embargo, or by some 'false flag' attack. What matters is that it will begin; and where it will take the world.

Regardless if the war begins with a limited number of air strikes against Iranian military and nuclear targets, or if an all-out several thousand target attack begins from day one, the probabilities of the war becoming a major regional war within 48 hours are 90% or higher.

The Iranians will simply not allow Israeli and/or American military forces to attack its territory without a major response. Any significant counter-attack on Israel and/or American regional bases will trigger a much greater counter-response.

The Iranians have equipped, paid for, and trained a massive unguided rocket and guided missile force in Lebanon (the largest such force in human history). These missiles are in place as a MAD force (a MAD ~ mutually assured destruction ~ force is one that is a doomsday force; established to prevent the use of overwhelming military force by allowing a return "punch" of overwhelming military destructive force upon one's enemy). The total number of missiles and rockets in Lebanon are variously estimated at between 40,000 and 110,000. While many are unguided Katyusha rockets, many are longer ranged guided missiles. All are operated by Hezbollah Special Forces launch teams.

The Hezbollah Special Forces are in effect a highly trained and well-equipped Iranian commando force of at least a Brigade in size. They man and protect a large number of mostly unguided and rather crude rockets, generally Katyusha 122mm artillery rockets with a 19 mile/30km range and capable of delivering approximately 66 pounds/30kg of warheads. Additionally, Hezbollah are known to possess a considerable number of more advanced and longer range missiles. During the 2006 war Hezbollah fired approximately 4,000 rockets (95% of which were Katyushas) all utilizing only "dumb" high explosive warheads. Some Iranian-built and supplied Fajr-3 and Ra'ad 1 liquid-fueled missiles were also fired. It is believed that the larger and longer range missiles are directly under the control of Syrian and Iranian officers.

The combination of short to medium range rockets and guided missiles in Lebanon, and the longer range guided missiles in Syria, the smaller number of rockets and missiles in the West Bank and Gaza, and the longer range guided missiles in Iran present a massive throw weight of warheads aimed at Israel.

The 2006 Israeli-Hezbollah War (called the Second Lebanon War in Israel) was an attempt by Israel at eliminating the MAD counter-force in Lebanon. It was an attempt that failed. The Syrians had purchased (and supplied to Hezbollah) a large number of very nasty, relatively low cost Russian AT-14 Kornet solid fuel anti-tank guided missiles (ATGM), and the Iranian-trained Hezbollah commandos dug in massive numbers of concrete bunkers and firing positions. After over 50 Merkava main battle tanks were hit, and the high tech American-made warplanes and pinpoint weapons proved ineffective, the handwriting was on the wall. Either use neutron bombs or lose a large number of Israeli soldiers to remove the Hezbollah threat; or declare peace and walk away for the time being ~ the Israelis chose the latter.

It now appears that Israel has given up on the idea of a ground assault to remove the many rocket and missile launchers in Lebanon. A senior Israeli general has resigned with the complaint that the Army is not training sufficiently to fight in Lebanon. The alternative is the use of FAE (fuel air explosive) technology weapons and neutron bombs (a type of nuclear weapon that produces a higher short-term radiological output and less blast output than normal nuclear weapons).

Any use of such WMD by the Israeli Army on the Hezbollah forces in Lebanon will likely automatically trigger the use of WMD warheads on whatever rockets/missiles remain operational (if their use has not already been authorized due to the nature and scope of Israeli and/or American attacks on Iran).

The bottom line of this is that Israel will face a truly massive number of rockets and missiles from Lebanon with radiological, chemical, biological and FAE "weapons of mass destruction" warheads. Additionally, a sizable number of such weapons/warheads will be fired from Gaza and the West Bank. The Syrians will be using larger, more accurate guided missiles to shower WMD upon Israel as will the Iranians. To counter this, the Israelis will be using their Green Pine Radar system and a combination of Israeli and American anti-missile missiles. They will have good success in knocking down many incoming missiles but the sheer number of incoming weapons will totally overload all defensive measures.

Large parts of Israel will be contaminated with radiation with extremely long half-lives (many tens of thousands of years in some cases), with a mix of chemical, FAE, and biological nightmares thrown in for good measure. Total deaths will amount to one-third to one-half of the Israeli population with a large additional number being injured.

The Israeli response will be the nuclear annihilation of Syria, Iran, and parts of Lebanon with many tens of millions killed. Expect to see every city of any size destroyed. There will be insufficient people left in Syria, Iran, and large parts of Lebanon to even bury the dead. Radiation will spread around the world from the nuclear bombs.

Iranian sleeper teams in North America and western Europe will begin to "seed" the populations of these areas with a number (perhaps in the several dozens) of different man made killer viruses. People in movie theaters, churches, synagogues, shopping malls, subway stations, airports, etc., will be exposed without anyone knowing it at the time, to these advanced biowar viruses. About nine to ten days later the computer reporting systems in the western countries will begin to report back strange illnesses. That will trigger a host of measures to contain the advanced biowar viruses but it will simply be too late to prevent a massive outbreak of horrific illnesses. International travel and trade will effectively stop. People will be ordered to stay home from work and school with only critical job holders being allowed on the streets. Hospitals will be overcome with sick and dying people of all ages. The medical community will be among the first to die off. Where temporary hospitals are established in school gyms and other areas, the cross infection of several different genetically engineered viruses will ensure 100% mortality of everyone in the temporary hospitals.

In the event that other nations have sought to expand the Georgia war by new attacks on Russian forces or by creating some naval incident in the Black Sea, the probabilities of an quick expansion into a all-out Third World War involving Russian and NATO nuclear weapons will be at approximately 50%. Even without a global total war being initiated, Russia is apt to "sweep" the Black Sea of NATO ships with considerable loss of life on both sides.

The world will be in the worst economic depression in history as global trade will be halted for at least several months due to fears of the spread of the various advanced biowar viruses. If Israel releases the Arab-specific designer advanced biowar viruses that many claim she has, the Saudis are apt to fire their Chinese IRBMs (intermediate range ballistic missiles) and send their very well-equipped air force against Israel with the small number of nuclear weapons that they possess (they have funded the Pakistani nuclear weapons program and have several Pakistani made nuclear devices). Of course, what is left of the Israeli forces will respond with additional nuclear attacks, this time on Saudi Arabia and other Arab nations for good measure.

In North America and western Europe the total number of civilians, after two months of advanced biowar illnesses, is apt to be at least a third of the population - a total death count of well over 200 million persons. Despite the best efforts of all nations, the man-engineered super killer mutant viruses will spread throughout the world causing total numbers of perhaps a billion or more to die.

The after effect of all of this may well lead to even more war as some nations will be so incensed at the massive loss of life of their citizens that total global war may be unstoppable.

[Shammu]

War fears run high as Bolivai violence rages
Saturday, September 13, 2008

LA PAZ: Deadly clashes in Bolivia on Thursday stoked fears of further widespread unrest and possibly even civil war, amid a furore over the expulsion of the US ambassador to the country.

-At least eight people were killed and a dozen people wounded in violent clashes between pro- and anti-government protesters in the northeastern town of Cobija, officials said. It was the third day of street violence in parts of the country.

The United States, meanwhile, responded with fury to President Evo Morales’s ordering the departure of the US ambassador by ordering Bolivia’s envoy to Washington to also leave.

The conflagration in Bolivia was a worsening of a months-long political standoff between Morales, who has been pushing through socialist reforms since becoming president in 2006, and conservative governors in the east opposed to his reforms.

Morales, the first indigenous president of majority-indigenous Bolivia, has sought to distribute resources more equally in the poorest country in South America.

The conflict has racial overtones as relatively prosperous regions of the eastern lowlands, where more people are of European descent and mixed-race, are keen to hold on to local resources they see as being pulled away by the impoverished indigenous highlands.

Morales’s spokesman, Ivan Canelas, said on Wednesday the conditions opened the way to “a sort of civil war.”

In Santa Cruz and Tarija, two hotspots for violence this week, with government offices ransacked, the situation was relatively calm, although precarious.

Wednesday, the central market area in Tarija saw right-wing youth groups linked to opposition governors defying Morales clashing with indigenous groups. Around 100 people were hurt.

In Santa Cruz, police overnight dispersed similar fights over control of the city’s coach (bus) terminal.

In southeast Bolivia, a gas pipeline was blown up on Wednesday in what the head of the state energy company YPSL, Santos Ramirez, called a “terrorist attack” by anti-government protesters.

Authorities at the private Franco-Brazilian Transierra company said supply to Brazil had been seriously affected.

On a visit to Brasilia, Bolivia’s Finance Minister Luis Alberto Arce said Bolivia was facing a “civilian coup attempt” referring to the protests targeting gas exports. Natural gas is Bolivia’s main saleable natural resource.

The Brazilian presidential adviser on international affairs, Marco Aurelio Garcia, responded by saying Brazil “will not tolerate” any moves to oust Morales.

Brazil “will not recognise any government taking the place, or trying to take the place, of the legitimate, constitutional government of Bolivia,” he said.

War fears run high as Bolivai violence rages

[Soldier4Christ]

Pakistan Surge - Three Phase Plan To Go After al Qaeda Terrorists

Osama bin Laden and other high-ranking al Qaeda figures should be more than a little nervous these days. I believe the ongoing game of cat and mouse is about to end for them in much the same way as it appears to have ended for Adam Gadahn.

NPR is reporting that the Bush administration has approved a three-phase plan to capture top Al Qaeda leaders and has increased military strikes inside Pakistan to achieve this target. The plan, according to the report, represents an 11th-hour effort to go after al Qaeda until President Bush leaves office.

According to NPR, the raid by helicopter-borne US Special Operations forces in Pakistan last week was not an isolated incident but part of this three-phase plan approved by President Bush. The plan calls for a much more aggressive military campaign and authorizes US forces in Afghanistan to take part in operations inside Fata.

Definitely, the gloves have come off, a US official who has been briefed on the plan stated. This was only phase 1 of three phases.

The US intelligence community already had approval from President Bush to carry out operations inside Pakistan, including attacks by Predator drones, which can carry 100-pound Hellfire missiles. Additional authority came from the president just recently that allowed incursions by US Special Operations forces, the report said.

A second source told NPR that lawmakers on Capitol Hill were briefed on the new plan shortly before The New York Times broke the story this week about the Special Operations raid from Afghanistan into Pakistan. The source also said that CIA personnel from around the world were being pulled into the Afghan-Pakistan border area, an intelligence-community surge to go after Bin Laden and other Al Qaeda figures.