Stock Market Crash Expected In 2008 To Be Worse Than 1929

[Soldier4Christ]

White House: Bush to lift offshore drilling ban
Congress must still lift legislative ban before offshore drilling can start

In another push to deal with soaring gas prices, President Bush on Monday will lift an executive ban on offshore drilling that his stood since his father was president. But the move, by itself, will do nothing unless Congress acts as well.

The president plans to officially lift the ban and then explain his actions in a Rose Garden statement, White House press secretary Dana Perino said.

There are two prohibitions on offshore drilling, one imposed by Congress and another by executive order signed by former President Bush in 1990. The current president, trying to ease market tensions and boost supply, called last month for Congress to lift its prohibition before he did so himself.

But Perino said Bush no longer wants to wait. She pinned blame on the leaders of the Democratic Congress, noting that no action has been taken on this issue.

“They haven’t even held a single hearing,” Perino said. “So we are going to move forward, and hopefully that will spur action by the Congress.”

Asked if Bush’s action alone will lead to more oil drilling, Perino said, “In terms of allowing more exploration to go forward? No, it does not.”

The president, in his final months of office, has responded to record gas-prices with a series of proposals, including more oil exploration. None would have immediate impact on prices at the pump, according to White House officials, who say there is no quick fix. But starting action now would help, they say.

Bush’s proposal echoes a call by Republican presidential candidate, Sen. John McCain, to open the Continental Shelf for exploration.

Congressional Democrats have rejected the push to lift the drilling moratorium, accusing the president of hoping the U.S. can drill its way out a problem.

Bush says offshore drilling could yield up to 18 billion barrels of oil over time, although it would take years for production to start. Bush also says offshore drilling would take pressure off prices over time. In addition, the president has proposed opening the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge for drilling, lifting restrictions on oil shale leasing in the Green River Basin of Colorado, Utah and Wyoming and easing the regulatory process to expand oil refining capacity.

Congressional Democrats, joined by some GOP lawmakers from coastal states, have opposed lifting the prohibition that has barred energy companies from waters along both the East and West coasts and in the eastern Gulf of Mexico. A succession of presidents, from Bush’s father — George H.W. Bush — to Bill Clinton, have sided against drilling in these waters, as has Congress each year for 27 years. Their goal has to been to protect beaches and coastal states’ tourism economies.

[nChrist]

Let me tell you, there is no group in America today that is immune to apostacy, that is immune to deception. We never thought we'd reach the point where Southern Baptists would be divided over the inerrancy of the Bible. Where a break away Southern Baptist group would hold a convention in Atlanta and have as its keynote spiritual speakers 3 people, Jimmy Carter, Al Gore and Bill Clinton!!! We are talking about apostacy beyond anything we can imagine these days!

We wouldn't think that Calvary Chapel would have a pastor come from Dallas, Texas, and hold a press conference, and say at that press conference '...there are many roads to god, and all of them are by good works...' Then set up tables in his Calvery Chapel where people can go and worship Greek orthodox icons. Thank God, he was defrocked!! But that is the kind of apostacy we're seeing...

"Behold what manner of love the Father hast bestowed upon us!! That WE should be called the sons of God! And therefore the world knowest us not, because it knew Him not. Beloved now are WE the sons of God, and it doth not yet appear what we shall be. But we know that when He shall appear we shall be like Him, for we shall see Him as He is. And every man that hath this hope in Him, purifieth himself, even as He is pure."

AMEN SISTER BARBARA!

YES - we are seeing things I never dreamed we would see, and things are getting worse. Of course, GOD told us it would get worse, so there really shouldn't be many surprises. We'll still be shocked the longer we're here, but we already know what happens. This evil world appears to be in overdrive now, so I really doubt that we'll be here that much longer. And, I feel pretty certain that things for many Christians around the world will get pretty ugly and dangerous. This is already a true statement in many parts of the world. We can watch the same thing beginning to happen in our part of the world. May GOD give us guidance and courage to remain standing until the last moment.

Love In Christ,
Tom

Christian Quotes 82 - "So we are we left with Judeo-Christian values
and secular left values. The latter, as noted, hold sway among the
world's elites. But they are personally so unfulfilling and morally so
confused that they cannot work. Western Europe will hopefully awaken
to this fact as its socialist economies fail and as it realizes that
you cannot fight faith (radical Islam) with no faith (secularism). ...
The Judeo-Christian value system is not only the best value system for
humanity; it is the only viable one. If we do not promote it, moral
chaos will ensue. And we can't promote it if we don't know what it
is." -- Dennis Prager

[Soldier4Christ]

This recession could easily tip into a depression
The experience of the 1930s makes me think that the present downturn will be relatively long and difficult

Today I am celebrating my 80th birthday, an age that seems less formidable when one has reached it than when one can see it only from afar.

I was born on July 14, 1928, about 15 months before the American boom of the 1920s came to its rather abrupt end. Like everyone else, I am naturally curious to see whether the global credit crunch is going to be a brief interruption in global prosperity, or the prelude to a longer and deeper depression.

I cannot claim to have clear memories of the 1929 Wall Street Crash, which occured when I was 1year old, or of Britain leaving the gold standard in 1931, when I was 3 years old.

I do however, remember newspaper articles about the later stages of the Depression. In the 1930s, my parents read The Times, the Financial Times and the Daily Mail.

I can remember the news stories of the Jarrow march of the unemployed. I also remember discussing with my mother a lead story which reported that farm workers' pay was to be raised 6d (2p) to what would now be £1.50 a week. The depression was a fact of existence in the North Somerset coalfield up to the outbreak of war in 1939.

Fortunately, there has only been one Great Depression in my lifetime, but there has also been a Great Inflation. In 2006 Pickering and Chatto, which I refounded in the 1980s, had the good timing to publish a three-volume History of Financial Disasters, under the general editorship of Mark Duckenfield.

His introduction to the 1929 crash on the New York Stock Exchange makes an important point: “Most of the stock market's loss in value took place in later years as the Depression deepened. Three years after its initial crash and shortly before the 1932 election, the Dow Jones Industrial Average had fallen to 34, a loss of more than 90 per cent in less than three years. The Dow did not return to its 1929 peak of 381 until a quarter of a century later at the end of 1954.”

On that basis, stock markets would get back to their 2007 levels in 2032.

There are various ways of measuring a recession. These are reasonably useful when applied to minor fluctuations of the stock market, or to minor adjustments of the world economy. But the big booms and slumps need to be measured by their broader impact over time.

The Great Depression can be regarded as lasting for ten years from 1929 to 1939; the Great Inflation ran for a similar period, from 1973 to 1982. Even these dates could be challenged, since both events were preceded by a build-up of debt and other warnings of trouble. Both were followed by aftershocks.

One can even argue about the correct date to take as the starting point of the present recession. It was certainly preceded by two great American bubbles, the dot-com bubble of the late 1990s and the US housing bubble of this century. On one view, the present recession began on August 7, 2007 - only a year ago - when the sub-prime mortgage crisis came to the surface. That date could also be used to mark the bursting of the US housing bubble, which is still having so damaging an impact on mortgage banking.

Alternatively, one could reasonably start the present recession from the bursting of the dot-com bubble itself, which was the beginning of a bear market on Wall Street. That happened in the early months of 2000, already eight years ago. If this is a depression, it is a matter of choice whether one regards it as one or eight years old.

A big inflation has many of the same consequences as a big depression. That is why many people made a dangerous mistake in the early 1970s. They saw that inflation was the immediate threat and assumed that it would raise the value of capital assets while liquidating debts. In fact, it raised interest rates on debt and actually reduced the value of many capital assets.

The inflation of the price of oil after 1973 was accompanied by a collapse of the British property market and the insolvency of the secondary banking sector in London. It is obvious that a big depression is bad for investors; a big inflation is bad for them as well.

The present recession has some characteristics which make me think that it will be a relatively long one. The recession is centred on banking and property. In an ordinary recession, one has to wait for consumers to regain their confidence, which, in turn restores the confidence of business. Now one has to wait for the bankers as well. At present, banks are too anxious even to lend to each other, let alone to expand consumer credit or business loans.

This recession has produced a succession of nasty surprises. Things are always proving to be worse than anyone had expected. Last week the crisis spread to the American mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, created by President Roosevelt in 1938.

These are far bigger than the investment bank Bear Stearns and Northern Rock put together. They have brought the crisis from the level of billions of dollars, to the level of trillions. No doubt they will be saved because the US would be bust if they went down. But you cannot save six- trillion-dollar institutions without suffering on a large scale.

The debt crisis, the banking crisis, the property crisis, the oil crisis, the shift to Asia, the bear market in stocks, are huge global adjustments that have all come together at the same time.

If my birthday does not prove to be another Black Monday on Wall Street, I shall think myself rather lucky. There is now a momentum of negative events sweeping away financial flood defences; in the 1930s that force overturned democratic governments as easily as it overturned banks.

Before we get back to balance, we may see dramatic changes in politics, as well as in business and finance.

[Soldier4Christ]

Oil drops below $130 for first time in a month
Massive natural gas sell-off, U.S. economic concerns help drive market

Oil prices fell below $130 a barrel for the first time in more than a month Thursday, as a dramatic slide entered a third day along with a sharp sell-off in natural gas.

The declines accelerated amid growing concerns about the weakening U.S. economy.

“The entire buillish scenario ... is starting to crack,” said James Cordier, president of Tampa, Fla.-based trading firms Liberty Trading Group and OptionSellers.com.

Light, sweet crude for August delivery dropped $5.31 to settle at $129.29 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Prices have fallen more than $15 in just the past three days.

Natural gas futures for August delivery fell more than 8 percent Thursday, marking their biggest one-day drop in nearly a year, according to Nathan Golz, researcher at Wachovia Securities in St. Louis. Prices for the key heating, cooking and power generation fuel have tumbled more than 20 percent since their peak before the Fourth of July, and are now trading at their lowest point since April.

A number of market observers say there was nothing supporting the run up in natural gas prices, which peaked in early July, and that this week’s sell-off of oil has only helped speed the declines.

“Any time oil goes up or down on Nymex, it’s going to have a carry-over effect on natural gas,” said Michael Rieke, senior managing editor for power and gas at energy research firm Platts.

The immediate cause of Thursday’s sharp natural gas decline was a larger-than-expected build of U.S. supplies.

The Energy Department’s Energy Information Administration said in its weekly report that natural gas inventories held in underground storage in the lower 48 states rose by 104 billion cubic feet to more 2.31 trillion last week. Analysts had been expecting supplies to grow by only 86 billion to 91 billion cubic feet, according to a Platts survey.

Oil prices fell more than $10 over the previous two days on growing concerns that inflation and other economic concerns could reduce demand for crude. A surprisingly large gain in oil and refined fuel inventories in the U.S. prolonged the sell-off, because it suggested more supplies were heading into storage rather than consumers’ fuel tanks.

Reports of a pre-dawn explosion that damaged an oil pipeline in Nigeria’s restive south — the sort of threat to supply that has helped fuel crude’s recent rally — did little to prop up prices Thursday.

A Nigerian military official said the blast on a pipeline owned by Agip, a subsidiary of the Italian energy giant Eni SpA, “affected output,” although he did not say by how much.

Col. Chris Musa, head of the Bayelsa State military, also did not say how severe the damage was, and declined to comment on what might have caused the explosion or whether it had resulted in any casualties.

The company said a sudden drop in pressure led it to halt production on pipelines carrying 47,000 gallons of oil a day.

Attacks on oil industry infrastructure in the past two years have slashed oil output by almost a quarter in Nigeria, Africa’s top crude producer.

At the gas pump, prices held steady at a record $4.114 a gallon, according to auto club AAA, the Oil Price Information Service and Wright Express. Diesel rose to a new record of $4.845, up more than half a penny.

In other Nymex trade, heating oil fell 6.62 cents to $3.7748 a gallon, while gasoline futures gained slipped fell 9.92 cents to $3.1802.

Brent crude for September delivery fell 51 to $135.30 on the ICE Futures Exchange in London.

[Soldier4Christ]

 US faces global funding crisis, warns Merrill Lynch

 The US Treasury is running out of time before foreign patience snaps, writes Ambrose Evans-Pritchard

Merrill Lynch has warned that the United States could face a foreign "financing crisis" within months as the full consequences of the Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac mortgage debacle spread through the world.

The country depends on Asian, Russian and Middle Eastern investors to fund much of its $700bn (£350bn) current account deficit, leaving it far more vulnerable to a collapse of confidence than Japan in the early 1990s after the Nikkei bubble burst. Britain and other Anglo-Saxon deficit states could face a similar retreat by foreign investors.

"Japan was able to cut its interest rates to zero," said Alex Patelis, Merrill's head of international economics.

"It would be very difficult for the US to do this. Foreigners will not be willing to supply the capital. Nobody knows where the limit lies."

Brian Bethune, chief financial economist at Global Insight, said the US Treasury had two or three days to put real money behind its rescue plan for Fannie and Freddie or face a dangerous crisis that could spiral out of control.

"This is not the time for policy-makers to underestimate, once again, the systemic risks to the financial system and the huge damage this would impose on the economy. Bold, aggressive action is needed, and needed now," he said.

Mr Bethune said the Treasury would have to inject up $20bn in fresh capital. This in turn might draw in a further $20bn in private money. Funds on this scale would be enough to see the two agencies through any scenario short of a meltdown in the US prime property market.

He said concerns about "moral hazard" - stoked by hard-line free-marketeers at the White House and vocal parts of the US media - were holding up a solution. "We can't dither. The markets can be brutal. We have to break the chain of contagion before confidence is destroyed."

Fannie and Freddie - the world's two biggest financial institutions - make up almost half the $12 trillion US mortgage industry. But that understates their vital importance at this juncture. They are now serving as lender of last resort to the housing market, providing 80pc of all new home loans.

Roughly $1.5 trillion of Fannie and Freddie AAA-rated debt - as well as other US "government-sponsored enterprises" - is now in foreign hands. The great unknown is whether foreign patience will snap as losses mount and the dollar slides.

Hiroshi Watanabe, Japan's chief regulator, rattled the markets yesterday when he urged Japanese banks and life insurance companies to treat US agency debt with caution. The two sets of institutions hold an estimated $56bn of these bonds. Mitsubishi UFJ holds $3bn. Nippon Life has $2.5bn.

But the lion's share is held by the central banks of China, Russia and petro-powers. These countries could all too easily precipitate a run on the dollar in the current climate and bring the United States to its knees, should they decide that it is in their strategic interest to do so.

Mr Patelis said it was unlikely that any would want to trigger a fire-sale by dumping their holdings on the market. Instead, they will probably accumulate US and Anglo-Saxon debt at a slower rate. That alone will be enough to leave deficit countries struggling to plug the capital gap. "I don't see how the current situation can continue beyond six months," he said.

Merrill Lynch said foreign governments had added $241bn of US agency debt over the past year alone as their foreign reserves exploded, accounting for a third of total financing for the US current account deficit. (They now own $985bn in all.) By most estimates, China holds around $400bn, Russia $150bn and Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states at least $200bn.

Global inflation is now intruding with a vengeance as well. Much of Asia is having to raise rates aggressively, drawing capital away from North America. This may push up yields on US Treasuries and bonds, tightening the credit screw at a time when the US is already mired in slump.

Russia's deputy finance minister, Dmitry Pankin, said the collapse in the share prices of Fannie and Freddie over the past week was irrelevant because their debt has been effectively guaranteed by the US government under the rescue package.

"We don't see a reason to change anything because the rating of the debt of those agencies hasn't changed," he said.

Foreign policy experts doubt that the picture is so simple. Russia is likely to use its $530bn reserves as an implicit bargaining chip in high-stakes diplomacy, perhaps to discourage the US from extending Nato membership to the Ukraine and Georgia.

Vladimir Putin, now Russia's premier, has stated repeatedly that his country is engaged in a new Cold War with the United States. It is clear that Moscow would relish any chance to humiliate the United States, provided the costs of doing so were not too high for Russia itself.

China is regarded as a more reliable partner, with a greater desire for global stability. Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson has intimate relations with the Chinese elite, dating from his days at Goldman Sachs when he visited the country over 70 times.

Brad Setser, from the US Council on Foreign Relations, said the Chinese have a stake in upholding Fannie and Freddie, not least to ensure that their loans are "honoured on time and in full".

David Bloom, currency chief at HSBC, said fears that regional banks could start toppling after the Fed takeover of IndyMac last week were now the biggest threat to the dollar.

"We have a pure dollar sell-off," he said. "It's a hating competition: at the moment the markets hate the dollar more than they hate the euro, even though German's ZEW confidence indicator was absolutely atrocious."

[Soldier4Christ]

Arabs buying out collapsing Western banks
'The specter of foreign takeovers of 'national' symbols will be hard to accept'

First it was Citibank. Now it's Barclay's and New York City's Chrysler Building skyscraper. Muslim Arabs are buying out collapsing Western banks and businesses and gaining growing international power, but some Arab investors are worried their investments may go down the drain with the American economy.

The current financial crisis in the United States has spread to other countries because of a massive debt that was not backed by enough real and liquid collateral. Banks and businesses gasping for financial breath are up for sale at basement prices, but no one is certain if the basement is the bottom.

"The possibility remains that more Arab white knights will be sought to rescue ailing financial institutions," wrote Dr. Mohammed Ramady, a former banker and Visiting Associate Professor at the King Fahd University of Petroleum and Minerals in the Financial Adviser magazine. He said he fears that Arab investors will end up chasing their investments with more money to keep them from going under.
 
The Abu Dhabi Investment Council of the oil-rich United Arab Emirates kingdom of  Abu Dhabi last November announced it was bailing out the mammoth Citibank financial institution, formerly headed by Bank of Israel Governor Prof. Stanley Fischer, with $7.5 billion.

Next in line was Britain's Barclay's Bank, which raised $9 billion from investors in the oil-rich kingdom of Qatar and in Asian countries. The Abu Dhabi Investment Council last month forked out approximately $800 million for a 75 percent stake in New York City's 1,046-foot-tall Chrysler Building, which was the world's tallest building for a year until the Empire State Building surpassed it in the 1930's.

The purchase of American banks by foreigners has been blocked in the past by security and political considerations, but the barriers have come down, wrote Dr. Ramady. "How long this lasts is only a matter of guesswork, as once again, the specter of foreign takeovers of 'national' symbols will be hard to accept," he added.

The latest American symbol to go down the drain is the Anheuser-Busch beer brewer. The Times of London wrote, "The weak dollar and weak economy mean the United States is up for sale. Japs are conquering the car industry. Arabs just bought part of the Chrysler Building. Jeez, they even tried to buy the ports a while back. Whatever next? A hijab on the Statue of Liberty?"

In a more serious vein, The Australian editor-at-large Paul Kelly wrote earlier this month that the foreign investments, headed by Arabs, signal a major change in international power.

"The energy, financial and political woes that grip the U.S. signal a decisive shift in world power, mocking the liberal delusion that Barack Obama or John McCain can return American prestige and power to its pre-Bush year 2000 nirvana," he wrote.  "There is no such nirvana. There is instead a new reality: the greatest transfer of income in human history [and] the rise of a new breed of wealthy autocracies that cripple U.S. hopes of dominating the global system and demands on the U.S. to make fresh compromises in a world where power is rapidly being diversified."

Flynt Leverett, former director of Middle East Affairs on the National Security Council, thinks that "the international economic position of the United States has deteriorated substantially since the new millennium."

In the current issue of The American Interest, Gal Luft, from the Institute for the Analysis of Global Security, warned that OPEC's Arab countries could potentially "buy the Bank of America with two months' worth of production and General Motors with six days' worth."

The growing Arab takeover of American businesses continues unhindered. The giant Dow Chemical company and a Kuwaiti company have agreed to set up world headquarters for their joint petrochemical venture in Dearborn, Michigan, which has a high concentration of American Arabs.

The Abu Dubai Investment Council years ago entered the international media business, buying a nine percent stake in Reuters News Agency, which usually reports with an open anti-Israeli bias.

However, Abu Dhabi's' director of international affairs, Yousef al Otaiba, has reassured American officials that its purchase of Citibank will not be used to exert political pressure on the U.S. He wrote the Treasury Department, "It is important to be absolutely clear that the Abu Dhabi government has never and will never use its investment organizations or individual investments as a foreign policy tool."

[Soldier4Christ]

Congress to increase gas tax by 10 cents?
Highway Trust Fund shortfall, fear of lost construction jobs fuels talk of hike

The political vision of a summer gas tax holiday died a quick death in Congress, losing to a view that federal excise taxes on gasoline and diesel fuel will have to go up if they go anywhere.

Despite calls from the presidential campaign trail for a Memorial Day-to-Labor Day tax freeze, lawmakers quickly concluded - with a prod from the construction industry - that having $9 billion less to spend on highways could create a pre-election specter of thousands of lost jobs.

Now, lawmakers quietly are talking about raising fuel taxes by a dime from the current 18.4 cents a gallon on gasoline and 24.3 cents on diesel fuel.

With gas prices setting records daily, Republican presidential hopeful John McCain and former Democratic candidate Hillary Rodham Clinton called for a 90-day suspension of the federal fuel tax to give drivers a little relief at the pump. The fuel taxes go into the Highway Trust Fund, which is used for road construction and repair and mass transit.

Clinton suggested making up for the loss by imposing a windfall profit tax on oil companies, an idea that Republicans rejected. McCain said the money could come out of the general Treasury fund, in effect adding to the federal deficit, and is still getting mileage from the idea.

"Some economists don't think much of my gas tax holiday," he said in a speech this month. "But the American people like it, and so do small business owners."

Barack Obama, the likely Democratic nominee, opposed the idea from the beginning and the White House gave it a cold shoulder. Depriving the 52-year-old Highway Trust Fund of $9 billion at a time when it is heading into the red doomed the notion of a gas tax holiday in Congress.

The chairman of the House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee, Rep. James Oberstar, and the chairman of the highway subcommittee, Rep. Peter DeFazio, presented fellow lawmakers with a list of how many jobs and how much money each state would lose. It ranged from $30 million and 1,000 jobs in Vermont to $664 million and 23,000 jobs in California.

"Because the trust fund is already looking at a looming shortfall, it would have moved project cancellations into the construction season," DeFazio, D-Ore., said in an interview. He said it was "highly unlikely" that oil companies would have passed savings along to consumers.

Just three years ago, that trust fund enjoyed a surplus of $10 billion. Even without a tax freeze, the fund is projected to finish 2009 with a deficit of $3 billion. That that could grow as Americans drive less and buy less gas because of higher pump prices.

The consequence is that only about $27 billion in federal money will be available next year to states and local governments for new infrastructure investment even though the current highway act calls for spending $41 billion a year. For many, the solution is to raise rather than suspend or cut federal fuel taxes, which haven't changed since 1993.

The Transportation Construction Coalition, a group of industry companies and unions, said that if Congress does not do something about the shortfall, states will lose about one-third of their road and bridge money in the budget year starting Oct. 1. That would put 485,000 more jobs at risk.

That message carried the day this summer. But now Congress has the bigger task of dealing with the short-term deficit crisis in the fund and coming up with a new spending plan, including revisiting the gas tax issue, when the current six-year, $286 billion highway-transit act expires in September 2009.

Senate Democrats in May tried to add $5 billion to an aviation overhaul bill to replenish the highway trust fund next year; Republicans objected. Democrats tried again in June, but this time for $8 billion; Republicans objected to that, too.

Congress should first reduce spending on pet projects, known as earmarks, argued Sen. Jim DeMint, R-S.C. "I'm not going to let the Senate spend all this money when nobody is looking, especially when we refuse to stop wasting billions of taxpayer dollars on earmarks."

Oberstar, D-Minn., said his committee is working on the next long-term highway bill. He estimated it will take between $450 billion and $500 billion over six years to address safety and congestion issues with highways, bridges and transit systems.

"We'll put all things on the table," Oberstar said, but the gas tax "is the cornerstone. Nothing else will work without the underpinning of the higher user fee gas tax."

At the very least, the gas tax should be indexed to construction cost inflation, DeFazio said.

The nonpartisan National Surface Transportation Policy and Revenue Study Commission concluded in a report this year that the U.S. needs to spend $225 billion annually over the next 50 years to create a highway and transit system capable of sustaining strong economic growth. Current spending, at federal, state and local levels, is about $90 billion a year.

Among other revenue-raising possibilities, the commission recommended gradually increasing the current federal fuel taxes to 40 cents a gallon.

The American Road & Transportation Builders Association is calling for a 10-cent-a-gallon raise and indexing the tax to inflation. With construction costs soaring because of competition for building materials from China and other developing nations, the tax rate would have to be about 29 cents a gallon to achieve the same purchasing power as the 18.4-cent rate imposed in 1993, the association says.

Including state and local levies, people in the U.S. pay about 47 cents on average in taxes for a gallon of gasoline. Fuel in many European countries costs $8 to $9 a gallon, with half or more of that going to taxes.

Other ideas that will be on the table when lawmakers write a bill next year including more toll roads and public-private partnerships, congestion pricing and user fees where drivers pay a tax based on how many miles they drive.

[Soldier4Christ]

Yep, Congress is working on the energy crisis alright, working on making it worse.

[Soldier4Christ]

1930s bank runs are back
As many as 150 U.S. financial institutions could fail in next year

Fears of U.S. bank failures reached a fever pitch not witnessed since 1930 last week, according to a report in Jerome Corsi's Red Alert.

Concerns intensified with the Federal Reserve and Treasury combining to bail out Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae with abundant loans and an offer to buy stock.

Next came the federal takeover of IndyMac, following Sen. Chuck Schumer's, D-N.Y., ill-advised public release of his June 26 letter to the Office of Thrift Supervision and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation expressing concern over the bank's solvency.

The bailout of Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae will not be complete until Congress approves. Many analysts question whether the bailout is a good idea.

Wall Street Journal editorial writer Holman W. Jenkins, Jr. made a strong argument that Freddie and Fannie ought to be privatized and their assets sold, with the goal of putting both quasi-governmental entities out of business once and for all.

What is certain is that more bank failures are likely in the coming months, as the crisis resulting from the bursting of the mortgage bubble works its way through billions of dollars in near worthless or deeply depreciated collateralized mortgage securities held by U.S. financial institutions in their asset portfolios.

As many as 150 out of the 7,500 banks in the U.S. could fail in the next 12 to 18 months.

Is the FDIC keeping a secret list of 90 troubled banks?

[Barbara]

This is scary - and a mess!

We've already started to keep some of our savings on hand in case there are anymore 'runs' on banks. This is something I never would've imagined 10 years ago, but here we are.

Just today in our local newspaper there was a reprint from the Associated Press saying the Treasury Sec'y. Henry Paulson is warning, the public should brace themselves for tough times in the months ahead - and that the economic 'slowdown' will be prolonged. That the number of troubled banks are going to increase because of the stresses in the marketplace.

Thank you, as always Pastor Roger, for the update!

[Soldier4Christ]

Finance prof: GM, Ford
'on verge of bankruptcy'
'Both are in very serious shape
and the markets reflect that'

General Motors Corp. and Ford Motor Co., the two biggest U.S. automakers, have about a 46 percent chance of default within five years, according to Edward Altman, a finance professor at New York University's Stern School of Business.

``Both are in very serious shape and the markets reflect that,'' Altman, the creator of the Z-score mathematical formula that measures bankruptcy risk, said in an interview with Bloomberg Television. The model shows that these companies are ``on the verge of bankruptcy,'' he said.

The Z-scores for GM and Ford give both a bond rating equivalent to a CCC ranking, though GM is in slightly worse condition than Ford, Altman said. GM reported a $38.7 billion loss in 2007, the biggest in its 100-year history, and hasn't posted a profit since 2004. The scores are based on the companies' finances at the end of the first quarter.

Moody's Investors Service said July 15 it may cut GM's Caa1 senior unsecured debt rating because the Detroit-based automaker's plan to raise at least $15 billion by suspending its dividend, cutting management payroll by 20 percent and selling assets may not be enough to offset losses. Standard & Poor's also said in June it may lower GM's B rating. Altman said the plan to raise $15 billion may improve GM's outlook.

Ford, based in Dearborn, Michigan, is rated Caa1 by Moody's and B by S&P, which said in June that Ford's rating may also be cut.

Ability to Refinance

``The thing that triggers a default in almost all cases is running out of cash and not being able to refinance,'' Altman said in an interview prior to his television appearance. ``You're not going to go bankrupt as long as you can refinance short-term liabilities. You will go bankrupt if you can't.''

In 2005, Altman said GM had a 47 percent chance of default within five years.

GM Chief Executive Officer Rick Wagoner said in an interview July 15 that the company has the ability to raise cash, and he called bankruptcy ``a bad idea.'' Ford has said it had access to $40.6 billion in funds as of March 31, including credit lines.

GM's $3 billion of 8.375 percent bonds due in 2033 rose 0.5 cent today to 58.5 cents, according to Trace, the bond-price reporting system of the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority. The debt yields 14.6 percent, or 994 basis points more than similar-maturity Treasuries. A basis point is 0.01 percentage point.

``I would not put money with GM right now because the downside is so great relative to the upside, relative to the yield,'' said Altman, speaking in New York. ``Your downside is probably 60 percent on the debt. The risk reward ratio is pretty poor.''

[Soldier4Christ]

Toyota to cut global sales goal by 350,000?
Purchases in U.S. slipping at faster rate than carmaker anticipated

Toyota Motor Corp (7203.T: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) may cut its 2008 global vehicle sales target by as much as 350,000 units to about 9.5 million because of declining sales in the United States, Japan and Europe, according to news reports.

The Nikkei reported in its Wednesday morning edition that Toyota plans to cut its global sales goal by 300,000 units to the lower 9.5 million level, while Kyodo News, citing a Toyota executive, said the automaker may cut its target by 350,000 units to 9.5 million.

Toyota will provide an update on its global sales target possibly next week, the executive, who was not identified, said, according to Kyodo.

"With slumps in Germany and other countries in Western Europe dragging on, growth in Russia is not enough to maintain our sales growth," a senior Toyota official said, according to The Nikkei.

A Toyota U.S. representative declined to confirm or deny the reports.

Toyota is revising its worldwide sales estimate partly because sales in the United States, its largest market, are slipping at a faster rate than anticipated due to high gas prices, the reports said.

The U.S. market accounts for some 40 percent of Toyota's worldwide profit.

Toyota's initial 2008 plan called for selling 9.85 million units, including those produced at two of its subsidiaries -- compact car-making Daihatsu Motor Co (7262.T: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) and truck-making Hino Motors Ltd (7205.T: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz).

Hit by sinking demand for fuel-thirsty SUVs and pickup trucks, Toyota this month announced a big overhaul of its North American manufacturing structure to build more fuel-efficient cars.

Toyota now plans to build its Prius hybrid at a factory under construction in Mississippi from 2010.

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Wachovia loses $8.9 billion, eliminates 10,000 positions
Chairman: 'These bottom-line results are disappointing and unacceptable'

Wachovia Corp. reported a surprisingly large second-quarter loss Tuesday, deflating Wall Street's hopes that the nation's big banks are weathering the credit crisis well. The bank said it lost $8.86 billion, is slashing its dividend and eliminating 10,750 positions after losses tied to mortgages soared.

Even excluding one-time items, the results substantially missed analysts' estimates.

But by the afternoon its stock joined a modest Wall Street rally and rose as much as 13 percent -- after its shares sank to mid-1991 levels in premarket trading, and after Wachovia's new CEO said he plans to cut $2 billion of expenses by the end of next year and sell parts of the fourth-biggest U.S. bank.

Its shares rose $1.19, or 9 percent, to $14.37 in afternoon trading.

"Our reported results today are clearly a disappointing performance for which we take responsibility," said Wachovia's Chief Executive Bob Steel on a conference call with analysts. "We are serious about getting on top of these issues quickly and we believe we have a good grasp of the challenges facing the economy, the industry and Wachovia."

Three rating agencies -- Moody's Investors Service, Standard & Poor's and Fitch Ratings -- downgraded their ratings on Wachovia's debt, citing increased expectations of losses in the bank's mortgage portfolio and its reduced flexibility to raise new capital.

Wachovia said it lost the equivalent of $4.20 per share in the April-June period. In the same timeframe last year, the bank earned $2.34 billion, or $1.22 per share.

Excluding $6.1 billion in write-downs to the value of its intangible assets and merger-related and restructuring charges of $128 million, Wachovia lost $2.67 billion, or $1.27 per share. Second quarter results include the bank's October acquisition of A.G. Edwards Inc., which the bank said the merger is proceeding as planned and is 40 percent complete.

Analysts on average expected a loss of 78 cents per share on revenue of almost $8.4 billion.

Earlier this month, the Charlotte-based bank had projected a $2.6 billion to $2.8 billion quarterly loss, equal to $1.23 to $1.33 per share, excluding goodwill items.

"Wachovia's new management has pulled its head of out the sand and is fully acknowledging the problems not challenges," said Bart Narter, senior analyst at Celent, a Boston-based financial research and consulting firm. "While the company's wealth management, corporate and investment banks, and capital management groups all had more encouraging results than the general bank, the general bank is the bulk of Wachovia and it isn't performing well."

Wachovia cut its quarterly dividend to 5 cents per share from 37.5 cents, which will conserve approximately $700 million of capital per quarter. In April, Wachovia slashed its dividend 41 percent.

Steel, who replaced ousted Ken Thompson earlier this month, said it was "clearly prudent and necessary" to further cut the dividend.

"While this is a difficult decision, it is the best course for our shareholders over the long term," he said.

Steel said the company is moving to "sell selected non-core assets" and reduce the number of business customers who only use the bank for loans rather than other services. Wachovia expects to cut expenses during the second half of this year by $490 million and then reduce 2009 spending by $1.5 billion.

As part of that plan, Wachovia said it would lay off 6,350 workers, affecting more than 5 percent to fits roughly 120,000 employees. A majority of those jobs will come from the mortgage area, Steel said.

Wachovia also said it will also eliminate 4,400 open positions and contractors. The bank has already cut 2,000 retail mortgage jobs, it said.

During the quarter, the Wachovia boosted its provision for loan losses to $5.57 billion from $179 million a year ago, and added $4.2 billion to its reserves for bad loans.

Results also included a $975 million charge related to the tax treatment of leveraged leases, $936 million of losses from disrupted capital markets, a $590 million charge for other legal matters, and $391 million of losses on securities sales.

Wachovia's current problems stem largely from its acquisition of mortgage lender Golden West Financial Corp. in 2006 for roughly $25 billion at the height of the nation's housing boom. With that purchase, Wachovia inherited a deteriorating $122 billion portfolio of Pick-A-Payment loans, Golden West's specialty, which let borrowers skip some payments.

Wachovia's increase in loan loss reserves included $3.3 billion related to the "Pick-a-Payment" mortgage portfolio. In April, the bank tightened underwriting standards, and last month it stopped offering an option on "Pick-A-Payment" loans that let borrowers pay less than the interest owed. On Monday, Wachovia said it will stop offering home loans through brokers.

Wachovia said it is setting aside $10.96 billion for credit losses, up from $6.77 billion in the first quarter and $3.55 billion a year earlier. Net charge-offs, loans it doesn't think are collectable, increased more than eight-fold from a year earlier to $1.31 billion.

Profits in consumer and business banking, Wachovia's largest unit, fell 23 percent to $1.12 billion, hurt by rising credit costs, mainly for mortgages.

The corporate and investment banking unit had a $209 million profit, down 73 percent, reflecting write-downs tied to subprime mortgages, commercial mortgages, non-subprime debt and consumer mortgages.

Capital management profit fell 5 percent to $297 million, hurt by the liquidation of an Evergreen Investments fund, while wealth management profit rose 9 percent to $98 million.

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Washington Mutual reports loss of $3.3 billion
Bank continues to face mounting losses stemming from bad mortgages

Washington Mutual Inc. said Tuesday it lost a staggering $3 billion during the second quarter as it increased its loss reserves to more than $8 billion to cover souring loans in its mortgage portfolio.

For the April to June period, the bank reported a loss of $3.33 billion, or $6.58 per share, compared with a profit of $830 million, or 92 cents per share, in the year-ago period.

Results include a previously disclosed, one-time reduction of $3.24 per share related to the company's $7.2 billion capital raise in April. Excluding the reduction, the loss per share was $3.34.

Analysts polled by Thomson Financial, on average, expected a loss of $1.05 per share. Analyst estimates typically exclude one-time, unusual charges.

WaMu's loan loss reserves increased by $3.74 billion to $8.46 billion. The company set aside a total of $5.9 billion during the quarter to cover bad loans, compared with $372 million in the same quarter of last year. The increase reflects falling home prices, increased delinquencies, reduced availability of credit and the weakening economy, the bank said.

Total net charge offs, or loans written off as unpaid, increased to $2.17 billion, while nonperforming assets grew to 3.62 percent of total assets as of June 30, from 2.87 percent at the end of the first quarter.

WaMu said it shortened the time used to evaluate default frequencies in its prime mortgage portfolio to a one-year period from a three-year period. Early-stage delinquencies for the subprime and home equity portfolios showed signs of stabilization, the bank said.

Net interest income, or income generated from loans and deposits, rose 13 percent to $2.3 billion from $2.03 billion. Noninterest income, or income generated from fees and other charges, dropped 68 percent to $561 million from $1.76 billion in the same quarter last year.

The company's tangible equity to total tangible assets capital ratio increased to 7.79 percent during the quarter, up from 6.40 percent in the first quarter. Additionally, WaMu said it ended the quarter with more than $40 billion of readily available liquidity.

WaMu became one of the first retail banks to seek outside cash in the wake of the credit crisis when it agreed to sell equity securities to an investment fund managed by TPG Capital and to other investors this spring, raising $7.2 billion in fresh capital.

WaMu shares surged in afternoon trading ahead of the earnings report, rising 34 cents, or 6.2 percent, to close at $5.82. Shares continued to rise in aftermarket trading, gaining 41 cents, or 7 percent, to $6.23. Shares are down about 57 percent for the year.

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California foreclosures up 261%
'Result of declining home values and rampant spoilage of a batch of especially risky home loans'

"Lenders started foreclosure proceedings on a record number of California homeowners last quarter, the result of declining home values and the rampant spoilage of a batch of especially risky home loans made in late 2005 and 2006."

"A record number of California homeowners defaulted on mortgages last quarter, a real estate information service reported today."

Numbers:
-- DataQuick counted 121,341 "notices of default" in the second quarter, up 6.6% from the first quarter and up 124.9% from year-ago levels.

Trustee deeds recorded, or actual loss of a home to foreclosure, totaled 63,061 during the quarter -- up 33.5% from the first quarter and up 261% from the second quarter of last year, DataQuick reported.