From Castro to Castro

[Soldier4Christ]

Fidel Castro offered some rare good news to his Yankee foes last week. In a speech marking the most important day in Cuba's revolutionary calendar, he assured America that he did not plan still to be running his tropical communist outpost when he was 100.

He delivered his latest taunt about his longevity to an audience of party faithful in the southern city of Bayamo, the scene of an attack that he led on an army barracks on July 26 1953, that marked the start of his July 26 Movement, the guerrilla force that overthrew the Batista regime in 1959.

Castro has outlasted nine American presidents since seizing power. Only the Thai and British monarchs have reigned longer than his 47 years. Now, as El Comandante (The Chief) prepares to celebrate his 80th birthday in two weeks' time, he has started to speak about a topic long considered taboo in Cuba - what comes after him.

Most significantly, he has anointed his brother, Raul, the defence and security chief, as his heir, even though he is just five years his junior. Castro has made clear in recent speeches that his final political goal is to fortify the status quo and believes that can only by guaranteed by keeping the succession in the family.

This became evident to Cuba's 11 million people with the adulatory coverage of the Comrade Raul's 75th birthday last month in the state media. Behind the scenes, his grip was strengthened by the appointment of several "Raulistas" to the party's newly re-formed secretariat.

Signs of Castro's mortality are increasingly evident. In Bayamo, he fumbled with his notes, lost his train of thought and, voice straining, abruptly wrapped up his paean to the wonders of the Cuban economy after little more than two hours - a duration that verges on the concise for a man who used to regularly deliver seven-hour rants.

The CIA briefed Congress last year that Castro was suffering the early stages of Parkinson's disease and reports of his impending death regularly sweep though the expatriate Cuban-American community in Florida. "I die practically every day," Castro joked to Venezuelan television this month. "But that amuses me a lot and makes me feel healthier. I have resurrected many times."

Despite his breezy air, it was clear that he had contemplated his mortality. "If you think you have fulfilled your duty, if the work to which you have dedicated all the hours and days of your life is good, then you are filled with tranquillity," he said. "I have to get used to everyone talking about my death, but I'm not going to criticise it. It's an issue that has to emerge."

Amid the faded colonial grandeur of Havana, where two million people live in the chaotic jumble of crumbling Spanish-era architecture and peeling 20th century tenement buildings, music thumped into the streets to mark the July 26 holiday.

Carlos, 31, a geography teacher with a second job in a store, was nursing a beer. He was partying, not celebrating, he said, and saw little prospect that life would improve much under Raul. "Castro or Castro, it makes no difference. We are still being told we have to sacrifice for the revolution."

As he spoke, two armed policemen watched him suspiciously. On other occasions last week, undercover officers demanded to see the identity cards of Cubans who chatted on the streets with Westerners.

Thousands of extra police have been drafted into Havana from other provinces as security is stepped up ahead of the September summit of the Non-Aligned Movement, a group of 114 developing countries, that the city is hosting. "The security services are pretty twitchy right now as the old man is desperate to impress his guests," said a resident.

Raul has been alongside Fidel in the revolutionary struggle, but the two are very different. Raul rarely appears in public, lacks his brother's charisma and oratorical flourishes and is reportedly a heavy drinker. He is also highly regarded for his organisational skills, a trait that could never be attributed to Fidel.

Raul, whose daughter, Mariela, is Cuba's best-known sexologist, is expected to adopt a more collective style of leadership, backed by key civilian and military figures. He is expected to steer Cuba towards the "Chinese model" - allowing greater economic freedoms under the auspices of the military but maintaining tight party control over government.

cont'd

[Soldier4Christ]

The younger Castro is a regular visitor to Beijing, where he has seen how the People's Liberation Army has transformed itself into China's dominant economic force. Indeed, he has already placed senior generals in charge of key areas of the Cuban economy.

Bolstered by subsidies and cheap oil from Venezuela and China, Cuba has emerged from the worst economic privations of the "special period" that followed the collapse of its old Soviet benefactors. Tourism - regarded by Castro as a corrupting but necessary evil, especially under the US trade embargo - has replaced sugar as the most important source of hard currency, and last year Cuba received 2.2 million foreign visitors.

Although monthly rations - including one quarter-litre of cooking oil, half a dozen eggs and four kilos of rice and beans - remain paltry, there are few shortages in the shops for those with access to convertible pesos. But Cuba's two-tier economy, based on local and convertible pesos, is widely derided on the island as an "apartheid" system.

For many Cubans, especially the younger generation, frustration is focused on the hated travel ban and lack of basic freedoms such as Castro's refusal to allow any opposition.

Many of the best-educated Cubans continue to leave. Neighbouring countries and Havana-based diplomats say that emigration from Cuba - legal and illegal - is soaring again. "Those who stay are just waiting to see how things change after Fidel," said a university professor. "Our lives are on hold."

At the United States Interests Section building on Havana's seafront, American diplomats installed a huge electronic ticker in January delivering uncensored news reports on Cuba. Castro responded by erected the Mount of Flags, a mass of 138 towering poles flying black colours that block the view of America's de facto embassy. Hoardings across the road depict President George W Bush as an "assassin" and "terrorist".

Fidel's planning for his demise has been mirrored in Washington which, this month, released a 93-page report by Mr Bush's Commission for Assistance to a Free Country, which was set up to prepare for "the happy day when Castro's regime is no more". It outlines plans to undermine the succession by Raul, recommending that the US spends $80 million over two years to encourage a transition towards democratic reforms through aid and trade incentives. Even Cuba's small band of dissidents, depicted by the regime as US "mercenaries", distanced themselves from the report, well aware that America's reputation for nation-building is poor right now.

America insists that it is not planning to enforce "regime change", but it wants to help to ensure that the Cuban people have a say in the government after Castro's death. "We want stability but not continuity," said a senior US official. The commission supports the protection of Cuba's health system and insists that no Cubans should lose their homes to returning exiles - addressing two key fears of islanders.

Castro remains popular with many Cubans, especially in rural areas dependent on subsidies from Havana. There are fears that his death could unleash violence, as scores are settled for perceived persecution and many Cubans are also worried about how the ageing generation of virulently anti-Castro exiles in Miami will react to his passing.

Brian Latell, the senior CIA Latin American analyst in the 1990s and author of the book After Fidel, expects the party to rally behind Raul. But he predicted that the real succession question was likely to be who follows Raul and whether "the house that Fidel built" can survive that.

"Until recently, Fidel has made every important decision,," he said. "He has held it all together. The concentration of power all these years in Fidel's hands could, therefore, prove to be one of his most destabilising legacies."

Most Cubans remain extremely wary about discussing his demise. "We still say 'if Fidel dies' rather than 'when'," said Lucia, 47, an artist born in the year of the revolution. "We don't talk about it. We've been conditioned to keep our view to ourselves. Cubans will have very mixed feelings when Castro dies. I think of him like an abusive father. He has often treated us badly, but he's still the only father I've known. I'm no fan of Fidel, but I will miss him when he's gone."