Gog and Magog in the news

[Shammu]

Russian Flotilla"Led By Admiral Kuznestov headed for Syrian Port
20 August 2008
David Eshel

Moscow is flexing its muscles again in the eastern Mediterranean, and aims to reactivate old cold war naval installations with its ally, Syria. President Bashar Assad, on his way to the Kremlin to finalize what looks to become a high profile deal invited Russia to position surface/surface missiles on his land in response to US deployment of missile interceptors in Poland. The Russians have sent their only aircraft carrier “Admiral Kuznetsov” from its home base in Murmansk, towards the Mediterranean and the Syrian port of Tartus. The mission comes after Syrian President Bashar Assad said he is open to a Russian base in the area.  The Admiral Kuznetsov, part of the Northern Fleet and Russia’s only aircraft carrier, will head a Navy mission to the area. The mission will also include the Black Sea fleet flagship, the missile cruiser Moskva, and several submarines.

On December 2007 Russia launched their frist north sea flotilla to the Mediterranean, to demonstrate its military strength. It was when Russian President Vladimir Putin alarmed Europe by finally declaring Russia's official rejection of the Conventional Armed Forces in Europe Treaty (CFE), (the treaty entered into force on July 17, 1992 limiting the number of combat elements that Russia could deploy along its borders with Europe). Immediately following this declaration, Russian Defense Minister Anatoly Serdyukov announced sending a sortie of six Russian warships to the Mediterranean, led by the Admiral Kuznetsov aircraft carrier. Other vessels escorting the carrier as part of the task force are Admiral Levchenko and Admiral Chabanenko anti-submarine ships, and the Sergei Osipov and Nikolai Chiker support ships. The group is expected to be joined by the flagship Moskva a guided missile cruiser and four additional ships as it arrives in the Mediterranean.

This will be the first prolonged stay of a Russian carrier to the eastern Mediterranean in waters dominated with regular patrolled by the US Sixth Fleet and in vicinity of Israel’s shores. On its decks Admiral Kuznetsov carries 47 warplanes (mostly Su-33) and 10 helicopters. The Russian Black Sea Fleet contingent, which has already set out for its new mission from Sevastopol, will rely on the naval facilities at Syria’s Tartous port. Its presence for several months will be a complication for the Israel navy’s operations opposite the Lebanese and Syrian coasts, especially if the Russians could be joined at Tartous by Iranian extended Kilo class submarines armed with the Russian-made "Sizzler" Klub-S (3M54) missile, as some unofficial Israeli sources reported. The Rusian Kuznetsov carrier group will conduct three tactical exercises, including real and simulated launch of missiles, said Serdyukov, adding 11 port visits are expected to be made.

Update - January 20, 2008: Following last week's joint exercises in the Mediterranean, the Russian naval strike group joined the Moskva missile cruiser, which left Sevastopol on January 12. The group is expected to conduct an exercise in the Atlantic Ocean, beginning January 20. The two months mission is expected to end early in February. "After this visit to the Mediterranean and France, the first in 15 years, we will establish a permanent presence in the region," Vice-Admiral Nikolai Maksimov said.

Last week, the group was split into two elements which performed joint naval exercises with the Italian and French Navies. The Russian and Italian navies practiced rescue and counter-terror operations. The two Italian vessels participating in the drill were the Frigate Espero and Bersagliere. Following the exercise part of the Russian flotilla sailed to the French naval port of Toulon, for a short rest. Their Mediterranean voyage will continue on January 17th as the elements from the Northern Fleet under the command of Vice Admiral Nicholas Maximov, will be joined by the Black Sea Fleet flagship, missile cruiser Moskva, which left Sevastopol on the 13th. The Moskva is commanded by the Vice-Admiral Vasily Kondakov, Deputy Commander of the Black Sea Fleet. As with their Italian counterparts, the French Navy is planning to hold naval exercises with the Russian visitors.

Sending such powerful Russian warships onto the Mediterranean, for any amount of time, is no small matter. With the Mediterranean having been a "NATO lake" for the past 15 years, since the demise of the Soviet Union, the simple presence of a naval Russian force will require reviewed strategy and tactics of many of western and Israeli navies.

But making matters even more complicated for NATO, the Kremlin has also decided to send a sortie of warships to the northeastern Atlantic. No less that eleven vessels from the Northern Fleet have set sail on a range of voyages that will cover much of the globe. Extending to more than 12,000 miles they are scheduled to enter ports of six countries in 71 days.

The Russian Federation Navy ASW destroyer Admiral Chabanenko at sea, tracked by the Royal Navy ship HMS Exeter. Photo: Royal NavyIn the latest twist to worsening East-West relations, NATO submarines and surface ships, which may include Royal Navy vessels, are already engaged in trying to gather information on the new Amur stealth class boat, being secretly tested by the Russian Navy in the Baltic. Adding to this greater-than-normal scrutiny effort is in part, a response to Russia's recent decision to resume long-range bomber flights close, or even penetrating into NATO airspace, which has revived memories of Cold War confrontation between the two blocs. In fact, twice during last summer, Russian Tu-95 Bear nuclear bombers have been spotted heading towards British airspace off Scotland, prompting the RAF to send fast reaction interceptors to head them off.

cont'd next post

[Shammu]

The prospect of Russia reactivating its cold war naval bases in Syria's Tartus and Latakia ports, could have a most dramatic strategic impact. High-profile air defense missiles and surveillance systems deployment around any Russian-manned installations in Syrian ports, might also shift the military balance to Israel's disadvantage, or even threaten a clash between Israel and Russian forces, as happened during the later stages of the so-called War of Attrition in 1970, along the Suez Canal.

The Russian Black Sea fleet's 720th Logistics Support Point at Tartus has been in disuse since 1991, when the Soviet Union imploded. Yet it remains the only Russian military base outside the post-Soviet Commonwealth of Independent States territory. Last year Russia reportedly dredged Tartus and began building a new dock at Latakia.

The Syrian ports are invaluable for the Russian navy as an alternative naval base, provided that their security could be assured, by a viable air defense barrier - The Moskva with 64 SN-A-6 missiles on board (navalized S-300) will be able to provide such capability

Israeli analysts believe that the present and rather unprecedented Russian strategic decision - sending such an impressive naval sortie into the eastern Mediterranean - could have resulted from Israel's still mysterious foray into Syrian air defense, during the air strike on an alleged nuclear development or weapon assembly site. According to Aviation Week - who interviewed the retired Brigadier General Pinchas Burchris, director general of Israel's Ministry of Defense, before the Israeli fighter aircraft ingress, a main Syrian radar site was struck with a combination of electronic attack and precision weapons, causing complete black-out of the entire Syrian air defense system which relied exclusively on Russian produced and installed equipment. Aviation Week claims this event may have been one of the first examples of offensive and defensive network attacks that included higher-level, non-tactical network penetrations.

No precise information, nor confirmation of the AW&ST report was released by Israeli official authorities, but the very fact that non-stealth jet fighters managed to enter unscathed into the highly sophisticated Russian supplied air defense barrier, built painstakingly during decades, since the 1973 Yom Kippur War, speaks for itself. It certainly must have caused Moscow considerable embarrassment, over the lack of performance of their latest sophisticated air defense systems sold for hard cash to Mid Eastern Muslim nations.

But not embarrassment alone, painful as it was, could have triggered Moscow to such a rapid reaction. The Russian navy is under growing pressure from Ukraine to withdraw the Black Sea Fleet from its traditional deployment at Sevastopol by 2017. Some recent incidents has sharpened this into, sofar minor, clashes with local elements, but the warnings are out in clear: "get out - you are no longer wanted here"!

The 'Kiev Post' noted that the Black Sea fleet's lease on its Sevastopol base is "hostage" to Ukraine's volatile relations with Moscow - which will expire in 2017, necessitating a renegotiation or withdrawal. The Russian Black Sea Fleet base already boosted security at its navigational facilities, amid a dispute with Ukraine authorities, over a lighthouse, linked to the fleet in the Crimean city of Yalta. The Russian move came after Ukraine threatened to take over all the navigational facilities of the Black Sea Fleet. The dispute emerged when the staff of a Ukrainian state company seized the lighthouse and denied Russian servicemen access to the lighthouse.

All this would render the Syrian ports invaluable for an alternative naval base, provided that their security could be assured, by a viable air defense barrier, safeguarding them from any future Israeli, or US attack, or even surveillance activities. Bolstering such an air defense can be enhanced by the long-term presence in off-shore deployment of high-profile warships, mounting sophisticated airpower (Su-33 fighters) and air defense armament, such as the Admiral Kuznetsov's 3K95 Kinzhal missile system, the navalized version of the TOR and the Slava class Moskva's SA-N-6 Grumble navalized version of the S-300 (SA-10).

Another aspect of the new Russian Med deployment is intelligence. Israeli electronic warfare experts warn that the presence of a strong Russian naval force, most likely based in the Syrian port of Tartus, would represent a significant strengthening of Russian intelligence gathering capabilities in the region. The Russian navy is considered to have high-quality electronic equipment capable of observing new weapons systems and intercepting communications, which could become high-value assets to Syria and Iran. Russian intelligence maintained constant presence for several decades in international waters, where listening ships, camouflaged as fishing boats were positioned continuously off the Israeli coast, gathering electronic and communications. This activity continued at least through the 1990s.

Whatever the latest Russian foray might signal, one thing is clear, the Mediterranean will soon become a new 'Cold War' type contest between Western and Russian navies, which will heat up substantially once the new Russian fourth generation Project 955 Borey class submarines, armed with Bulava missiles also enter into the fray.

Russian Flotilla"Led By Admiral Kuznestov headed for Syrian Port

[Shammu]

Russia-Syria weapons deal alarms US
The United States has said it is "very concerned" about reports that Russia was planning to sell weapons to Syria.
22 Aug 2008

Russia's foreign minister Sergei Lavrov said he was ready to deliver "defensive" weapons to the Arab state when the Syrian President Bashar al-Assad visited Moscow on Thursday.

"We are obviously very concerned about reports that Russia may be providing weapons systems to Syria," said the State Department spokesman Robert Wood. "We have always said to the Russians that these sales should not go forward, they don't contribute to regional stability and, again, I urge them not to go through with these sales if there is any intent to go through with them."

The warning followed an Israeli statement that the weapons sales could "destabilise" the balance of power in the Middle East.

Ehud Olmert, the Israeli prime minister, now plans to visit Moscow in early September to try to persuade President Dmitry Medvedev to abandon any arms deal.

"Depending on the nature of the deal, he may try to block it," an aide to Mr Olmert said of the planned trip.

The Jewish state is particularly worried about the prospect of Syria obtaining anti-tank or anti-aircraft missiles that could then be channelled to Hizbollah in Lebanon.

Israel fears its own history of arms sales to Georgia could provoke Russia into a retaliatory move after the recent conflict in the Caucasus.

"A reinforcement of links between Damascus and Moscow amounts to a very negative development," said Tazhi Hanegvi, head of the Israeli parliament's foreign affairs committee. "It would push Syria to adopt an irresponsible and adventurist policy."

Despite the tension, however, Israel and Syria are engaged in indirect peace talks for the first time in eight years.

Syria is hoping to negotiate an Israeli withdrawal from territory in the Golan Heights, which Israel seized during the six day war in 1967.

Russia-Syria weapons deal alarms US

[Shammu]

Russian forces at Georgian port despite pullback

By Niko Mchedlishvili 11 minutes ago

POTI, Georgia (Reuters) - Russia said on Saturday its troops would patrol one of Georgia's main Black Sea ports, defying Western demands for a complete pullback to positions held before fighting broke out over a Georgian rebel region.

Moscow said it had honored a ceasefire deal by pulling back most of its forces, but troops remained deep inside Georgia on what the Kremlin calls a peacekeeping operation.

French President Nicolas Sarkozy, who helped broker a ceasefire in the two-week-old confrontation, urged Russian President Dmitry Medvedev to order his forces out of the port of Poti in a telephone conversation on Saturday.

"President Sarkozy insisted it was important that Russian troops present at the Poti/Senaki area should withdraw as soon as possible," said a statement from the French government, which holds the EU presidency.

The tone contrasted with the Kremlin readout of the same conversation, which said Sarkozy had given a "positive assessment" of the Russian pullout.

The conflict erupted on August 7-8 when Georgia tried to retake South Ossetia in a conflict in which hundreds were killed and tens of thousands displaced.

A Russian counter-offensive pushed into Georgia proper, crossing its main East-West highway and nearing a Western-backed oil pipeline. They also moved into Western Georgia from Abkhazia, a second rebel region on the Black Sea.

Poti, which is economically vital for Georgia, lies outside the security zone Russia says is covered by its peacekeeping mandate and is hundreds of kilometers (miles) from breakaway South Ossetia province, the focus of the war.

A group of 20 Russian soldiers manned a checkpoint on the main road leading to Poti on Saturday, but did not stop traffic. Up to 1,000 Georgians gathered to protest.

"While we are still alive we will not allow them to stay here," said 60-year-old Roland Silagava.

Russia says the patrols are in line with the French-brokered ceasefire which said Russian troops must return to positions held before the war over South Ossetia. But it allowed peacekeepers to take unspecified "additional security measures."

"FASTER NATO MEMBERSHIP"

Sarkozy said on August 16 such measures could only be used in the "immediate proximity of South Ossetia."

Paris said Sarkozy and Medvedev agreed on the urgency of setting up an international mechanism under the Organization of Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) to replace Russian patrols in the buffer zone south of South Ossetia.

But Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has said only peacekeepers from countries acceptable to South Ossetian and Abkhazian separatists could be effective in the region, and made clear they will not accept anyone apart from Russians.

Moscow says its peacekeepers are needed to prevent further bloodshed. Tbilisi and its Western allies say they will help give Russia a stranglehold over a country that lies on a transit route for energy exports from the Caspian Sea.

The U.S. envoy to the Caucasus said Russia had hastened Georgia's bid for NATO membership with its military actions. Moscow sees Georgia and other ex-Soviet republics as part of its legitimate sphere of influence and opposes them joining NATO.

"I think what Russia has done now is the strongest catalyst it could have created to get Georgia in NATO," U.S. envoy Matthew Bryza told Ekho Moskvy radio.

"STATE OF WAR"

The Georgian parliament voted to keep its armed forces on a state of heightened readiness and reservists mobilized.

The conflict has left the United States, NATO and the European Union groping for a response. Beyond freezing NATO's contacts with Russia, the West looks to have little influence over Russia, one of its main energy suppliers.

A U.S. trade official said Russia's actions could affect its membership of the Group of Eight industrialized nations and its bid to join the World Trade Organization.

Moscow set itself a deadline of Friday night to complete its pullback and by Saturday large swathes of Georgia were free of Russian forces for the first time in two weeks.

A Reuters cameraman saw Russian armor queuing two to three kilometers to get through the Roki tunnel which leads out of South Ossetia to Russia, and Reuters witnesses saw troops and armor leaving Abkhazia, about 80 km (50 miles) from Poti.

Russian checkpoints were gone from the main highway linking the capital to the Black Sea, an economic lifeline.

In the town of Gori near to South Ossetia, the target of Russian bombing and extensive looting, the food market re-opened and elderly women swept up broken glass from the streets.

But 6 km (4 miles) to the north, a Reuters reporter saw Russian soldiers at a checkpoint in the village of Karaleti, where Georgia says Moscow has no right to station troops.

Russia denies any plans to annex Georgian territory but also says it is hard to envisage the rebel regions rejoining Georgia.

Russian forces at Georgian port despite pullback

[Shammu]

Russia aims to keep control of Georgian port city

By BELA SZANDELSZKY, Associated Press Writer 2 hours, 39 minutes ago

POTI, Georgia - Thousands of Georgians demanded that Russian troops leave the outskirts of this strategic Black Sea port on Saturday and took to the streets in protest, while a top Russian general said his country's forces would keep patrolling the area.

The comments by deputy head of the general staff Col.-Gen. Anatoly Nogovitsyn, reported by Russian news agencies, showed that despite protests from the United States, France and Britain, Russia was confident enough to occupy whatever part of Georgia it deemed necessary.

"Russian military: You are not a liberating military, you are an occupying force!" one man shouted at the Poti protest. Banners read "Say No to War" and "Russia go home."

On Friday, Russia said it had pulled back forces from Georgia in accordance with a EU-brokered cease-fire agreement.

"There are very specific requirements for Russian withdrawal. Putting up permanent facilities and checkpoints are inconsistent with the agreement. We are in contact with the various parties to obtain clarification," White House spokesman Gordon Johndroe said.

French President Nicolas Sarkozy's office said he had pressed Russian President Dmitry Medvedev during a phone conversation Saturday to quickly remove Russian troops from an axis between the Georgian towns of Poti and Senaki.

Russia's pullback on Friday came two weeks to the day after thousands of Russian soldiers roared into the former Soviet republic following an assault by Georgian forces on the separatist region of South Ossetia. The fighting left hundreds dead and nearly 160,000 people homeless.

It also has deeply strained relations between Moscow and the West. Russia has frozen its military cooperation with NATO, Moscow's Cold War foe, underscoring a growing division in Europe.

On Saturday, residents of the strategic central city of Gori began returning. Chaotic crowds of people and cars were jammed outside the city as Georgian police tried to control the mass return by setting up makeshift checkpoints.

Those who were let through came back to find a city battered by bombs, suffering from food shortages and gripped by anguish.

Surman Kekashvili, 37, stayed in Gori, taking shelter in a basement after his apartment was destroyed by a Russian bomb. Several days ago, he tried to bury three relatives killed by the bomb, placing what body parts he could find in a shallow grave covered by a burnt log, a rock and a piece of scrap metal.

"I took only a foot and some of a torso. I could not get the other bodies out," he said.

His next-door neighbor, Frosia Dzadiashvili, found most of her apartment destroyed, leaving only a room the size of a broom closet to stay in.

"I have nothing. My neighbors feed me if they have food to share," the 70-year-old woman said.

The Russian tanks and troops are now gone from Gori — but other Russian troops are just up the road at a new Russian checkpoint. On Saturday afternoon, several thousand protesters waving Georgian flags approached the Russian position on the outskirts of Gori. Some soldiers came out of their trenches, but there was no clash.

Russian troops also held positions in trenches they had dug near a bridge that provides the only access to Poti. Tanks and armored personnel carriers were parked nearby. Russian troops hoisted both Russian flags and the flag of the Commonwealth of Independent States, or CIS, the union of former Soviet republics that Georgia recently announced it had left.

Emotions ran high as protesters approached a Russian position, but direct confrontation was avoided.

"They have the CIS flag, and that flag is not our Georgian flag," said protester Sulkhan Tolordava. "Georgia is not a member of this organization, so the troops must leave very quickly."

Russia interprets the cease-fire accord as allowing it to keep a substantial military presence in Georgia because of earlier peacekeeping agreements that ended fighting in the separatist areas of Abkhazia and South Ossetia in the 1990s.

But even though Poti is completely outside the buffer zone for Abkhazia, Nogovitsyn said Russian troops are not leaving and will patrol the city.

"Poti is not in the security zone, but that doesn't mean that we will sit behind the fence and watch as they drive around in Hummers," Nogovitsyn said, making an acid reference to four U.S. Humvees the Russians seized in Poti this week. The vehicles were used in previous joint U.S.-Georgian military exercises.

Russian forces also set up a checkpoint near Senaki, the home of a major military base in western Georgia that Georgian troops retook on Saturday. AP video footage of the base Saturday showed it had been heavily looted.

And in South Ossetia, Russian troops erected 18 peacekeeping posts in the "security zone" and planned to build another 18 peacekeeping posts around Abkhazia. A total of 2,600 heavily armed troops the Russians call peacekeepers will be deployed in those regions.

Russia, Georgia and the West are certain to continue the diplomatic struggle over South Ossetia and Abkhazia. The Russian parliament was expected to discuss recognizing the independence of the separatist regions Monday.

In some devastated Georgian towns, the only visitors Saturday were looters, arriving in trucks and cars to take whatever they could find.

In the village of Kekhvi, the ethnic Georgian homes had been burned. An AP reporter saw Ossetian men hauling away cutlery, electronics, blankets, foodstuffs and even Orthodox icons in a looting campaign driven by opportunism and revenge. Some looters even came to pluck ripe peaches off the trees.

"This is not looting, this is trophies," said Garik Meriyev, 32, a stubbled South Ossetian dressed in green camouflage pants, a black baseball cap and dusty jackboots.

He and four other men loaded their yellow Russian-made minibus Saturday with metal pipes, timber and bricks from a burned down house.

"All of this will be destroyed anyway," he said. "But now these things will serve me."

Russia aims to keep control of Georgian port city

[Shammu]

Talk of Russia-Cuba ties seen as warning to U.S.

By Jeff Franks Sat Aug 23, 7:38 AM ET

HAVANA (Reuters) - Cuba and Russia have stirred memories of their Cold War alliance with recent talk of restoring "traditional" ties in what experts said was a warning to their old adversary, the United States.

Russia, once the island's top economic benefactor and military ally, has hinted at re-establishing a military presence in Cuba in a tit-for-tat for U.S. activities in Eastern Europe, including plans for a missile defense system, they said.

"Russia is clearly irritated at what it perceives as U.S. meddling in its neighborhood," said Cuba expert Phil Peters at the Lexington Institute in Virginia. "It seems to be sending a message that if you play on our periphery, we'll play in yours."

The ghost of Cuba-Russia relations past was raised last month by a news report that Russia might use Cuba as a refueling base for its nuclear-capable bombers. The Russian Defense Ministry later denied the report.

Such action would cross a "red line," said a U.S. Air Force general in language that brought to mind the 1962 Cuban missile crisis when the United States and Russia, then the Soviet Union, almost went to war over Soviet missile bases on the island 90 miles from Florida.

Deputy Prime Minister Igor Sechin went to Havana this month on what was billed as an economic trip and, accompanied by Russian Security Council Secretary Gen. Nikolai Patrushev, and met with Cuban President Raul Castro.

The security council, which guides Russian national security policy, said in a following statement the two countries planned "consistent work to restore traditional relations in all areas of cooperation."

Prime Minister Vladimir Putin chimed in later, saying, "We need to re-establish positions on Cuba and in other countries."

But analysts said Russia was a lot more likely to get increased trade with Cuba than it was military cooperation.

"It's impossible to imagine that anyone in the Cuban leadership would want to put their country in the bull's eye of another superpower showdown reminiscent of the missile crisis," said Brian Latell, a former CIA analyst now at the University of Miami.

"BLUSTER" FROM MOSCOW

"The military talk seems to be bluster on Moscow's part," Peters said. "Cuba has nothing to gain from a military relationship, which would be high-risk and out of character with the steady renovation of diplomatic relationships" under Raul Castro.

Moscow gave Cuba billions of dollars worth of aid during their long alliance and at the height of their dominance, stationed thousands of troops and advisers on the island.

When the Soviet Union unraveled in 1991, the aid dried up, Cuba plunged into a deep economic crisis and then-leader Fidel Castro accused his former communist ally of betrayal.

That bitter experience has not been forgotten in Havana and may contribute to Cuban reluctance to do anything more than business deals with the Russians, said Frank Mora at the National War College in Washington.

"As I've heard dozens of times over the years from Cubans on the island, the 'bolos' (Russians) are not to be trusted," he said.

The Soviet collapse also taught the Cubans the danger of depending on one ally, which dovetails with another Russian goal, said Dan Erikson at Inter-American Dialogue in Washington.

"Russia seeks to reassert itself as a world power, which includes a renewed presence in Latin America, while Cuba wants to diversify its economic partners to reduce its dependence on Venezuela," he said, referring to Cuba's current top ally and trading partner.

Venezuela did $2.7 billion in trade with Cuba last year, compared to just $362 million for Russia.

After Sechin's visit, the Cubans described the Russians' talk with Raul Castro as "cordial and friendly" and said both sides stressed the "reactivation of economic ties."

They did not mention possible military ties but on August 10 Raul Castro issued a declaration supporting Russia in its military clash with Georgia after the former Soviet republic sent troops to try to reclaim the breakaway enclave of South Ossetia.

He accused Georgia of launching its attack "in complicity" with its ally, the United States.

Talk of Russia-Cuba ties seen as warning to U.S.

[Shammu]

How Strong Is Russia?
Experts Are Divided, but U.S. Intelligence Believes Russia's Military May Be World's Second Strongest
By KIRIT RADIA

Aug. 22, 2008 —

Is the bear back?     (I believe so..... DW)

The Russian bear is roaring angrily as its former Soviet satellites forge closer ties with the West. But as Russia makes threats and takes steps to curb perceived Western encroachment on its border, just how much of a threat is it?

Experts say Russia's options are limited, but warn it should not be ignored.

Independent experts are divided on the extent of Russia's strength. However, American intelligence believes Russia's military may have rebounded to become the second most powerful in the world, behind only the United States, after suffering from mismanagement and insufficient resources after the collapse of the Soviet Union.

Military spending increased several-fold under former President Vladimir Putin, buoyed by booming oil and gas revenues.

Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice voiced her concern about Russia's military might in an interview with ABC News during a trip to Moscow last year.

"I think the rapid growth in Russian military spending definitely bears watching," she told ABC's Jonathan Karl.

This week Russia threatened Poland, its former Soviet satellite, after Warsaw inked a deal allowing the United States to place 10 interceptor missiles on Polish territory.

"Russia, in this case, will have to react and not only through diplomatic protests," Russia's Foreign Ministry said Wednesday, this just days after a top Russian general warned Warsaw it could face a nuclear attack if it went ahead with the deal.

The United States insists the missiles are meant to defend against attacks from rogue countries like Iran, but Russia feels threatened by a U.S. missile system so close to its border.

Rice downplayed Russia's threat and reminded Moscow that Poland's membership in NATO means the United States is obligated to defend it against attack.

"An attack upon one is an attack upon all, and that's the strongest possible guarantee you can have," Rice told reporters.

So, how credible is Russia's threat against Poland?

"The Russians aren't about to launch some military action to the Poles, but they might take some specific measures to counter it, like moving short-range missiles closer to the border," said Stephen Flanagan, director of the International Security Program at the Center for Strategic International Studies.

"I think it's mostly saber rattling, but we ignore it at our own peril -- as we learned in Georgia," Flanagan said.

While Poland can count on NATO ensuring its security, Georgia, a fellow former Soviet republic, failed to get into NATO earlier this year and recently had to defend against Russia alone.

Just hours after Georgia struck targets in the separatist region of South Ossetia two weeks ago, Russian troops rolled into the breakaway territory. They swept through South Ossetia and moved swiftly into undisputed Georgian territory without much resistance from Georgian troops.

Soon, thousands of Russian troops and hundreds of tanks had crossed the border. Within days, Russian troops, with support from aerial bombers, had secured Georgian towns, military installations and key transport routes throughout the country.

Experts on the Russian military, however, offer mixed reviews of its performance in Georgia.

"The way they conducted the operation was like a well-oiled machine, but that's not to say the Russian military is a well-oiled machine," said Felix Chang, a senior fellow at the Foreign Policy Research Institute.

However, Chang was quick to point out that in the conflict, Georgia's smaller army was hardly a challenge to the Russians.

"By Saturday morning, the Georgian political leadership decided not to resist and began a military withdrawal, so it was not a true test," he said.

In an analysis of the conflict published by the Foreign Policy Research Institute, Chang argued that Russia's offensive in Georgia "does demonstrate the Russian military's renewed ability to prosecute a relatively complex, high-intensity combined arms operation."

Retired Brig. Gen. Kevin Ryan, a former defense attaché at the U.S. Embassy in Moscow, however, was not impressed with the Russian troops, saying they looked "ragtag."

"The Russians were not that stellar in the execution of this operation," he said. "I think it's more a case of the lack of an opponent in South Ossetia and a lack of an army to fight when they got there than it is a credit to the Russians."

Russia's push into Georgia was not perfect. Several Russian military planes were shot down by the Georgians, despite a Georgian air defense system that Flanagan described as "limited."

That all may be welcome news to Ukraine, another of Russia's neighbors that is seeking to enter NATO and is wary Moscow may try to head off its plans for a closer relationship with the West.

Experts caution, however, that the situations in Ukraine and Georgia are very different.

"Ukraine's military is much larger. It's a much larger country," Flanagan said. "It's not an easy target."

During the 1990s, Russia's military capability declined significantly. After the Soviet Union's collapse, the military was underfunded and under-resourced.

Nowhere was that more evident than in Chechnya, where Russia was bogged down for years fighting separatist forces that were more lightly armed.

Although Russia may now have a larger and more powerful military, experts also argue it lacks the ability to project that power far from its border.

"But most people don't want to find out how credible [that] threat is," Flanagan said.

How Strong Is Russia?

[Shammu]

Russia, Iran, Libya, Jordan, Abdullah, Medvedev discuss cooperation agreement
08.23.08
Jordanian king makes official visit to Moscow ahead of possible signing of collaboration agreement between countries
Roee Nahmias

Russian-Jordanian cooperation received a "very strong push" with a visit conducted by King Abdullah II of Jordan to Moscow, the London-based al-Hayat reported Saturday.

The Jordanian king arrived Friday for an official visit to Russia after being invited by President Dmitry Medvedev. During his two-day stay Abdullah met with Russian Premier Vladimir Putin and discussed a number of subjects with him. 

Russian sources were quoted by al-Hayat as saying that both sides are willing to sign a new collaboration agreement.

On Friday Abdullah toured a Russian military camp near Moscow, where he was treated to a presentation of Russia's advanced weaponry. As part of the show, Abdullah watched the launching of a shoulder-held RPG-32 anti-missile rocket, still in experimental stages.

According to the report, the two countries plan to construct a model similar to the experimental rocket in Jordan. Jordanian officials said the rocket would provide for the country's military needs and that Jordan would receive product marketing rights in the Middle East and other regions.

The Jordanian king also plans to travel to the Black Sea coastal town of Sochi, where a meeting with Medvedev is scheduled for Sunday. Recently Medvedev visited Sochi in order to meet with Syrian President Bashar Assad.

During the meeting, Assad offered Medvedev the right to deploy Russian missiles within Syrian territory, in response to US military involvement in Poland.

The Syrian president may have been referring to the Russian S-300 anti-plane missiles, which could threaten US aircrafts in the Middle East. The missiles, placed on Syrian territory, would also make an Israeli air strike more difficult.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said Thursday that his country is considering fulfilling Assad's bid for new Russian artillery, but did not specify the type of weaponry Damascus has asked to buy.

Russia's Itar-Tas news agency reported Lavrov said the weapons were defense related, and "would not harm the region's strategic balance." The foreign minister spoke about the matter after a meeting with Medvedev and Assad.

Russia, Iran, Libya, Jordan, Abdullah, Medvedev discuss cooperation agreement
~~~~~~~~~~~~

Everyone of these players have a major role to play in the near future...........

Russia's Itar-Tas news agency reported Lavrov said the weapons were defense related, and "would not harm the region's strategic balance."

I wonder if he blinked, and missed the news.

[Shammu]

Moscow 'lying about pullout'
23 August 2008

GORI, Georgia: Russia said yesterday it had completed its pullout of troops from Georgia proper, but the White House swiftly rejected Moscow's claim that it was now in compliance with a French-brokered ceasefire.

Russia said it had left peacekeepers manning checkpoints inside Georgia. But a senior Georgian official accused Russia of lying about having completed its troop pullout, saying Russian forces still occupied areas of the country.

"It is not true that the withdrawal is complete," Interior Ministry spokesman Shota Utiashvili said, adding that Russian forces continued to hold positions in the west of the country.

"They cannot stay in Senaki and Poti. Their presence there is illegal," he said.

"The pullout was carried out without any incidents and was completed according to plan," the Russian Defence Ministry said.

Washington said the pullout remained unsatisfactory. The top US general in Europe John Craddock, on a visit to Tbilisi, described the Russian pullout, after fighting that has killed hundreds and made refugees of tens of thousands, as "far too little, far too slow".

"The fact of the pullout of occupying forces from the main towns, under enormous pressure from the international community, is a good start and a step in the right direction," Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili said.

French President Nicolas Sarkozy spoke with his US counterpart George W Bush and a statement from Sarkozy's office said the two men had spoken by telephone, but it did not directly say they agreed that Russia was not in compliance with the ceasefire agreement.

Georgian police were back in control of Gori after Russian troops pulled out of the city. National Security Council secretary Kakha Lomaia said Russian troops had left Gori but they appeared to have mined a military base.

South Ossetia's leader Eduard Kokoity assured the UN that Georgians returning to the breakaway region would not face discrimination.

Russian buffer zones inside Georgia would violate the spirit of the ceasefire agreement, Alexander Stubb, chairman of the Organisation of Security and Co-operation in Europe said.

Moscow 'lying about pullout'

[Shammu]

Ukraine fears it may be the next target for Russia
Thu Aug 21, 2008 1:22pm EDT

By Elizabeth Piper

KIEV (Reuters) - Ukraine fears it could be the next target of Russia's campaign to reassert influence over countries it long dominated in the Soviet Union, with Moscow well placed to foment separatist feelings in its Russian-speaking regions.

Ukraine stood by Georgia in its war with Russia over the region of South Ossetia. President Viktor Yushchenko traveled to Georgia to show his support and announced tougher rules on Russian naval movements from a base in Ukraine.

And in a departure from his usual careful balancing act between Russian and Western interests, Yushchenko attacked Russia over South Ossetia in a way more akin to Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili.

Some political analysts say that could heighten the risk.

"When Ukraine prioritizes its national interests, it goes against Russia's interests and, of course, there will be conflict," said Viktor Chumak, an analyst for Ukraine's International Centre for Policy Studies.

"And Russia has broken through a psychological barrier to start this kind of war on former Soviet territory ... Georgia had created itself in the shape of an enemy of Russia, and many in Russia already see us in the same way ... We probably rank third in the list of Russia's leading enemies."

Both born out of bloodless revolutions, one orange and one rose, Yushchenko and Saakashvili's administrations want to join NATO, the European Union and secure close ties with the United States.

Like Georgia, Ukraine was not put on the fast-track to NATO membership at the alliance's summit last April, but was promised it would be allowed in one day.

All of this has angered Russia which is fearful of having the Western military alliance on its doorstep.

Other former Soviet republics have also been considering their rankings. Moldova, whose Communist government has courted the West rather than traditional ally Russia, fears it has taken the same path as Georgia and has Russian peacekeepers patrolling in its separatist Transdniestria region.

Even Belarus's leader, Alexander Lukashenko, initially distanced himself from the war, which was criticized in the West. But subsequently, at Moscow's prompting, he praised Russia's "wisdom" in the way it handled the crisis.

CRIMEA

Analysts say the Crimea region in southern Ukraine could be used by Russia to destabilize Ukraine. It hosts Russia's Black Sea fleet in Sevastopol and the majority of people living there are ethnic Russians.

Russian-speaking eastern Ukraine could also provide fertile ground, the analysts say.

Chumak said Russia could take advantage if Ukrainian politicians failed to resolve their differences and continued to let legislation slide. Yushchenko and his prime minister, Yulia Tymoshenko, have sparred over almost all policy decisions since she came to power in December.

"In that situation then Russia will start playing games, start provoking Ukraine, especially with Crimea," he said.

Yushchenko was quick to call on the West to protect Georgia's territorial integrity.

"When we think about our position on Georgia, I have no doubts ... The loss of sovereignty, putting into doubt the territorial integrity of Georgia -- this means revising the sovereignty of all," Yushchenko, swept to power by the 2004 "Orange revolution", said in a statement.

Russia could also hold Ukraine ransom over its gas supplies. Moscow controls about 80 percent of Ukraine's supplies and in 2006 Russia cut supplies to Ukraine over a pricing dispute.

"There is a reason to be wary in the short-term future, there is a threat in that Ukraine is similar to Georgia in terms of what has happened in recent years," said political analyst Oleksander Dergachev.

"But I find it difficult to think that the threat posed is a military one. Russia relies on the fact that it has more of an influence over Ukraine economically."

Most analysts cautioned against scare-mongering and said Ukraine could avoid confrontation by taking a pragmatic stance first and then reforming its economy in the long-term.

"If Ukraine sorts out its domestic situation and consolidates its foreign policy in terms of European and Atlantic integration and this goes at a good pace then we can avoid the South Ossetian scenario," Chumak said.

"I mean there is no stronger enemy to Ukraine than Ukraine itself, especially its politicians."

Ukraine fears it may be the next target for Russia

[Shammu]

Russia is using the Iranian playbook. The Russian  idea of "peacekeeping" certainly is interesting, isn't it?? Invade a country and then sit there!! Yet all the Russians seem to do is talk, talk, talk, and talk some more.

[HisDaughter]

Russia is using the Iranian playbook. The Russian  idea of "peacekeeping" certainly is interesting, isn't it?? Invade a country and then sit there!! Yet all the Russians seem to do is talk, talk, talk, and talk some more.

The "Mother-Land" sure seems to be a busy little bee.  This will be interesting.

[Shammu]

Russia seeks to restore its prestige in the Holy Land

by Catherine Dupeyron Fri Aug 22, 12:19 PM ET

JERUSALEM (AFP) - Eager to revive its prestige in the Holy Land, Russia is pressing a claim to ownership of an historic Jerusalem building formerly owned by a tsarist prince and which once housed aristocratic pilgrims.

The 19th century Sergei Building is in the centre of Jerusalem and at the heart of complex negotiations in which even British royal consort Prince Philip has been mentioned as a potential, though unlikely, heir.

The Russian state had initially hoped to take possession in June of the impressive property that once belonged to Prince Sergei, a brother of Tsar Alexander III.

Since 1948, the building, topped by a crenellated tower, has housed the Israeli agriculture ministry and other agencies and been administered by the government's custodian general, responsible for property listed as abandoned.

A tangle of legal issues has held up the transfer, but Moscow remains determined to push the deal through and revive the building's past.

"We want to restore our historic heritage in the Holy land," says Russia's charge d'affaires in Israel, Anatoli Yurkov, who believes the deal could be completed as early as next month.

Imperial Russia was, in the 19th century, the first European power to organise mass pilgrimages to the Holy Land. Sergei Building, then known as the Sergei Imperial Hospice, was a kind of five-star hotel for pilgrims, housing only aristocrats and other well-heeled Russians.

It is now one of several historic buildings in the Russian Compound, which also includes the 19th century Russian Orthodox Holy Trinity Cathedral.

Some of the land in the Russian Compound was sold to Israel by the Soviet Union in the 1960s in what became known as the "oranges deal" because the young and cash-strapped Jewish state made part of the payment in citrus fruits.

Officially atheist during the decades of communist rule, Russia's political establishment is now "responding in part to the Russian Church's desire to return to the Holy Land," says Alexandre Zanemonets, who teaches Byzantine history at Haifa University.

The desire to reclaim ownership of the historic buildings also "reflects the Russian people's interest in their Christian roots," he says.

Negotiations over the Sergei Building have been complicated by the fact the building was the private property of Prince Sergei. "That means the Russian state was not automatically entitled to this property," says Zanemonets.

Prince Sergei, who died in 1905, had no children.

But because of the British royal family has distant ties to the Romanovs, Prince Philip is a potential heir. "This may be the case, but it's an indirect right, and as far as I know he is not claiming the property," says Yurkov.

The diplomat says a deal was reached in January but that "problems on the Israeli side have caused delays."

Israeli officials say once the ownership hurdle is cleared, further negotiations will be needed to end the lease of the current tenants, the agriculture ministry and the society for the protection of nature.

Once the tenants have left, Russia wants to turn the building back to its original use, to house pilgrims.

In the Soviet era, barely 1,000 Russian pilgrims a year visited the Holy Land, but since the 1991 collapse of the Soviet Union the number of Russians retracing the steps of Jesus Christ has grown steadily, reaching 200,000 in 2007, a 163 percent increase over the previous year.

A further increase is expected now that Israel and Russia have reached a bilateral agreement to do away with visa requirements as of October.

Russia seeks to restore its prestige in the Holy Land

[HisDaughter]

Russia really has no shame.  I can see the writing on the wall....

[Shammu]

Russia warns Moldova against "Georgian mistake"
Mon Aug 25, 2008 8:31am EDT

By Denis Dyomkin

SOCHI, Russia (Reuters) - Russian President Dmitry Medvedev warned ex-Soviet Moldova on Monday against repeating Georgia's mistake of trying to use force to seize back control of a breakaway region.

Russia sent peacekeepers to Moldova in the early 1990s to end a conflict between Chisinau and its breakaway Transdniestria region and is trying to mediate a deal between the two sides.

Transdniestria, one of a number of "frozen conflicts" on the territory of the former Soviet Union, mirrored the standoff between Georgia and its rebel regions of South Ossetia and Abkhazia until they erupted in war earlier this month.

Russia sent troops to Georgia to crush Tbilisi's military push into South Ossetia and Moscow says Georgia has now lost the chance of ever re-integrating the breakaway provinces.

"After the Georgian leadership lost their marbles, as they say, all the problems got worse and a military conflict erupted," Medvedev told Moldovan President Vladimir Voronin.

"This is a serious warning, a warning to all," he added. "And I believe we should handle other existing conflicts in this context."

As the two leaders spoke in Medvedev's Black Sea residence in Sochi, Russian lawmakers were voting non-binding resolutions urging the Kremlin to recognize Abkhazia and South Ossetia as independent states.

That would be a nightmare scenario for Moldova which fears Russia could recognize Transdniestria, a pro-Moscow region in Moldova.

Medvedev, keen to limit diplomatic damage caused by the Russian operation in Georgia, made clear Moldova had no reason to worry for now.

"We have agreed ... to meet and discuss the Transdniestria settlement," he told Voronin. "I think there is a good reason to do this today. I see good prospects of reaching a settlement."

Medvedev's spokeswoman Natalya Timakova later told reporters the two leaders had agreed to hold a fresh round of talks on Transdniestria soon.

"Russia is ready to continue its efforts towards finally solving the Transdniestrian crisis," she told reporters.

Russia is currently trying to forge a deal between Chisinau and Transdniestrian separatists which would keep the rebel region as part of Moldova but give it broad autonomy.

The Russian-brokered deal would also allow Transdniestria to leave Moldova should the former Soviet state decide to join their ethnic kin in EU member Romania.

Several years ago, Moldova rejected a similar deal under a strong pressure from NATO. But now Voronin appears to treat the Russian mediation more favorably.

The Moldovan leader told Medvedev he had indeed learned the lesson: "Thank God, during all these years...we had enough brains and reserve not to allow a similar deterioration of situation."

"Frozen conflicts are a real volcano which can blow up anytime," Voronin added. "That is why taking into account what had happened elsewhere it would be useful if we exercised again such wisdom not to allow such things to repeat in our country."

Russia warns Moldova against "Georgian mistake"