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Nuclear attack on D.C. a hypothetical disaster


April 16, 2008

By Gary Emerling - A nuclear device detonated near the White House would kill roughly 100,000 people and flatten downtown federal buildings, while the radioactive plume from the explosion would likely spread toward the Capitol and into Southeast D.C., contaminating thousands more.

The blast from the 10-kiloton bomb — similar to the bomb dropped over Hiroshima during World War II — would kill up to one in 10 tourists visiting the Washington Monument and send shards of glass flying the length of the National Mall, in a scenario that has become increasingly likely to occur in a major U.S. city in recent years, panel members told a Senate committee yesterday.

"It's inevitable," said Cham E. Dallas, director of the Institute for Health Management and Mass Destruction Defense at the University of Georgia, who has charted the potential explosion's effect in the District and testified before a hearing of the Senate Committee on Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs. "I think it's wistful to think that it won't happen by 20 years."

The Senate committee has convened a series of hearings to examine the threat and effects of a terrorist nuclear attack on a U.S. city, as well as the needed response.

Yesterday's panel stressed the importance of state and local cooperation with federal authorities in the wake of an attack, assistance from the private business sector to aid recovery and the dire need to boost the capabilities of area hospitals.

They recommended expanding emergency personnel by training physicians like pharmacists and dentists to aid in all-hazards care, monitoring the exposure of first responders to radiation and clearly disseminating information to the public.

"The scenarios we discuss today are very hard for us to contemplate, and so emotionally traumatic and unsettling that it is tempting to push them aside," said Sen. Joe Lieberman, Connecticut independent and committee chairman. "However, now is the time to have this difficult conversation, to ask the tough questions, and then to get answers as best we can and take preparatory and preventive action."

Ashton B. Carter, co-director of the Preventive Defense Project at Harvard University, said the likelihood of a nuclear attack on U.S. soil is undetermined, but it has increased with the proliferation of weapons by Iran and North Korea and the failure to secure Russia's nuclear arsenal following the Cold War.

"For while the probability of a nuclear weapon one day going off in a U.S. city cannot be calculated, it is almost surely larger than it was five years ago," Mr. Carter said.

Mr. Carter described a more destructive blast effect. He said the ground-based detonation of a 10-kiloton bomb would result in near-total devastation within a circle about two miles in diameter, or the length of the Mall.

The zone of destruction is projected to be less than that of Hiroshima, where the bomb was dropped from an airplane and detonated above the city.

A similar blast in a more densely populated city than the District, such as Chicago or New York, would result in an injury toll up to eight times higher. A plume a few miles long could also dole out lethal doses of radiation, Mr. Carter said.

However, the experts emphasized that the explosion would not impact most of a major city and that in many cases, residents could remain safe by not evacuating immediately and clogging area roadways.

"It is also expected that, due to lack of information getting to the public, many people will try to flee by car or on foot, often in the wrong direction, again exposing themselves to high levels of radiation, as vehicles provide virtually no protection," Mr. Carter said.

Mr. Dallas said a major problem facing most cities is a lack of available hospital beds for victims of burns that would result from a nuclear blast. He said up to 95 percent of such victims would not receive potentially life-saving care.

"We're completely underprepared," he said. "Most of them will die."

Mr. Dallas said the District also faces a unique challenge because of the way the city is configured geographically: A wind blowing west to east would gradually spread radiation from the explosion into the low-income neighborhoods of Southeast, where there are limited health care options available and only one hospital.

Area officials have spent millions of dollars in recent years to develop evacuation plans and stockpile emergency supplies after a 2006 study by the U.S. Department of Homeland Security said local preparation for a disaster was "not sufficient."

Darrell L. Darnell, director of the District's Homeland Security and Emergency Management Agency, said the city is continuing to develop its "emergency preparedness capabilities" and has numerous methods of informing residents of actions they should take, including through text messages, voice alerts and Web sites like www.dc.gov and http://72hours.dc.gov.

"We are confident that the District is prepared to respond to a catastrophic incident affecting the District," Mr. Darnell said.

Still, Mr. Dallas said the majority of victims in a nuclear explosion will likely have to fend for themselves in the first hours after an attack.

"These people are going to be on their own," he said after the hearing. "There's no white horse to ride to the rescue."

Nuclear attack on D.C. a hypothetical disaster (http://www.washingtontimes.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080416/METRO/556828862/1001&template=printart)

Risk of Nuclear Attack on Rise
More Emergency Prep Could Be Done, Experts Tell Senate

By Mary Beth Sheridan
Washington Post Staff Writer
Wednesday, April 16, 2008; Page B04

Concerned that not enough attention is being paid to the risk of a nuclear attack, a Senate committee yesterday looked at the consequences of such a terrorist strike in Washington -- and said that more could be done to save lives.

A hearing, called by the Committee on Homeland Security and Government Affairs, featured charts showing the horrific effects of a small nuclear device detonating near the White House. It was the panel's third session in recent months on the threat of a nuclear explosion.

"The scenarios we discuss today are so hard for us to contemplate and so emotionally traumatic that it is tempting to push them aside," said Sen. Joseph I. Lieberman (I-Conn.), the panel's chairman. "However, now is the time to have this difficult conversation, to ask the tough questions, then to get answers."

The committee summoned witnesses yesterday who said the risk of such an attack on U.S. cities has grown in the past five years because of the spread of nuclear technology and the growth of a global terrorist movement.

"I definitely conclude the threat is greater and is increasing every year with the march of technology," said Cham E. Dallas, director of the Institute for Health Management and Mass Destruction Defense at the University of Georgia.

Yet the experts agreed that even such a disaster didn't constitute the doomsday scenario imagined during the Cold War. Most District residents would survive. And "much could be done to save lives" if the government made the right preparations in advance, said Ashton B. Carter, co-director of the Preventive Defense Project at the John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University.

At the committee's request, Dallas prepared a report on the effects of a small nuclear device exploding near the White House. A 1-kiloton device, which could fit into a suitcase, could kill about 25,000 people, he said. A 10-kiloton explosive, which could be hidden in a van, could kill about 100,000, Dallas said.

The 10-kiloton blast would release fatal doses of radiation in the immediate area and destroy almost all buildings within a half-mile radius, he said. The intense heat would burn people for many blocks and spark fires. Windows would shatter for miles, Dallas testified, gesturing to a color-coded map that showed damage as far out as Union Station.

The danger wouldn't be limited to those in the blast area. A radioactive plume would start drifting from the blast point, subjecting those in its path to lethal levels of radiation, Dallas said. The plume's direction would be determined by weather conditions.

Dallas's model envisions a 10-block-wide "death plume" moving east, the direction the wind typically blows in Washington. It billows down Constitution Avenue, reaching Benning Road NE in 30 to 60 minutes.

"With proper communication, people can flee from the plume area," Dallas said, noting that they can walk or run from what will likely be a narrow band of high danger. But, he added, authorities need to "put more effort" into testing their ability to swiftly alert those in danger.

Most people outside the blast zone or the path of the plume should stay in their homes for at least the first few days after an attack, and will probably suffer limited health problems, the experts said.

Dallas predicted that the local medical system would be overwhelmed, but said that authorities could save lives with better preparation. For example, Dallas suggested training medical professionals such as pharmacists and veterinarians to provide burn care and other assistance. Community volunteers living near Howard University Hospital, which would be outside the blast zone, could be organized in advance to clean wounds and help in other ways, he said.

"Burn care is a nightmare. And we're completely unprepared," Dallas said, noting that the entire country only has specialized burn facilities for 1,500 patients. "Ninety-five percent of burn victims will not receive care. And most of them will die."

Asked for comment, emergency-response officials in the region said they had made great strides in preparing for a catastrophic event.

Chris Geldart, who oversees the National Capital Region office at the Department of Homeland Security, said local hazmat teams can quickly run data to predict the path of a radiological or chemical cloud. Homeland Security recently held an exercise with the governors of Maryland and Virginia, as well as D.C. Mayor Adrian M. Fenty (D), on how to inform the public about a dangerous plume.

As for casualties from a nuclear device, "the amount of burn victims that you're going to have would stress any system," Geldart said. The National Disaster Medical System would be activated to whisk patients to other states for treatment, he said. "There's been a lot of planning that has happened within this region, especially at the federal level, for the 10-kiloton."

Darrell Darnell, head of the city's homeland security office, said in a statement, "We are confident that the District is prepared to respond to a catastrophic incident."

He said that the city's emergency communication tools include a reverse-911 calling system, text alerts, city Web sites and the Emergency Alert System, which sends messages over radio and television.

Geldart disagreed with an idea raised by Carter at the hearing: having the federal government assume control after a nuclear explosion. "The federal government is not going to wrest control from a state, as long as state and local governments are capable of responding," Geldart said.

Risk of Nuclear Attack on Rise (http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/04/15/AR2008041502969_pf.html)

I don't think it's all that "hypothetical", just a matter of time.