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October 2, 2007
Vladimir Putin proposes job swap at top to tighten his grip on power

Tony Halpin, Moscow Correspondent

President Putin unveiled his plan yesterday for holding on to power indefinitely with a bombshell announcement that he will run for parliament.

Mr Putin said that he would head the electoral list for the United Russia party in December’s parliamentary elections, adding that it was “entirely realistic” that he would go on to become prime minister.

The decision solves the Kremlin’s “succession problem”, paving the way for a weak figurehead to replace Mr Putin as president next March while he continues to govern Russia as a powerful prime minister.

It also raises the likelihood that Viktor Zubkov, who was plucked from obscurity by Mr Putin to become Prime Minister last month, will be endorsed as his successor in the Kremlin.

Mr Putin, 56, is barred by the Constitution from seeking a third consecutive term. But there is nothing to stop him taking charge as prime minister for four years before returning for two more terms as president.

Mr Zubkov, who is 66, expressed an interest in standing for the presidency shortly after his appointment. His age and loyalty to Mr Putin would make him an ideal stop-gap candidate.

Any sudden illness that forced him to retire from the presidency would even allow Mr Putin to return to the Kremlin in an early election.

The manoeuvre dashes the ambitions of senior politicians seen as successors. In particular, it leaves Sergei Ivanov and Dmitry Medvedev, the two first deputy prime ministers, with no prospect of attaining the presidency unless they ran against Mr Putin’s nominated candidate.

Neither man is likely to opt for such a high-risk strategy. The anti-Putin opposition in The Other Russia, the coalition movement of the chess champion Garry Kasparov, has been banking on tensions to encourage a breakaway candidate.

Mr Putin’s announcement was clearly stage-managed but brought wild cheering at United Russia’s party congress. Asked to comment on a suggestion that he should head the party’s electoral list, he replied: “I gratefully accept your proposal.”

Mr Putin said that he was ready to lead the Government, but added: “It is still too early to think about it.” He continued: “Two conditions must be met first — United Russia must win the election and a decent, capable and modern person with whom I work as a team should be elected as president.”

Neither of those conditions is much of an obstacle. Mr Putin’s popularity almost ensures that United Russia will retain its two-thirds majority in the Duma, Russia’s parliament.

Whoever he endorses for president is equally certain of success in a campaign tightly controlled by the Kremlin, and with a pliant media.

Mr Putin is not obliged to take a seat in parliament under Russia’s electoral system. But analysts said that his decision to enter the race signalled a fundamental shift in the way Russia would be governed. They predicted that Russian politics would evolve into a system of parliamentary government with competing parties.

A White House spokesman said that Mr Putin’s decision was “ultimately a matter for the people of Russia”.

Financial markets reacted positively, believing Mr Putin had removed uncertainty surrounding the succession.

Vladimir Putin proposes job swap at top to tighten his grip on power (http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/europe/article2569064.ece)

Turks Angry Over House Armenian Genocide Vote

Published: October 12, 2007

ISTANBUL, Oct. 11 — Turkey reacted angrily today to a House committee vote in Washington on Wednesday that condemned the mass killings of Armenians in Turkey during World War I as an act of genocide, calling the decision “unacceptable.”

In a rare and uncharacteristically strong condemnation, President Abdullah Gul criticized the vote by the House Foreign Relations Committee and warned that the decision could work against the United States.

“Unfortunately, some politicians in the United States have once more dismissed calls for common sense, and made an attempt to sacrifice big issues for minor domestic political games,” Mr. Gul said in a statement to the semi-official Anatolian News Agency. “This is not a type of attitude that works to the benefit of, and suits, representatives of a great power like the Unites States of America. This unacceptable decision of the committee, like similar ones in the past, has no validity and is not worthy of the respect of the Turkish people.”

The House decision prompted reaction on the streets of Turkey’s capital, Ankara, where the youth branch of the extreme leftist Workers’ Party laid a black wreath at the entrance to the United States Embassy and spray-painted the Turkish flag onto an Embassy wall. The group held Turkish flags, posters of Mustafa Kemal Ataturk, the founder of the Turkish Republic, and banners reading, “Armenian genocide is an imperialistic lie,” the Anatolian News Agency reported. The protesters called for the closing of the Incirlik Air Base in southern Turkey, which American troops use to supply the military in central Iraq. “The U.S. once more showed that it is not our strategic ally but an enemy,” the Workers’ Party branch said in a statement.

The Associated Press reported that Turkey today recalled its ambassador in Washington, Nabi Sensoy, for consultations about the issue. A Foreign Ministry spokesman, Levent Bilman, said the ambassador would stay in Turkey for about a week to 10 days. Ross Wilson, the American ambassador, tried to calm relations, issuing a statement today in which he said the partnership between Turkey and the United States was strong and would remain so and that he, President Bush and Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice regretted the committee decision. Ms. Rice was expected to talk by telephone to Mr. Gul and the prime minister, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, later today, a State Department spokesman said.

Nevertheless, the Turkish Foreign Ministry warned that relations with the United States will be made more complicated. “The committee’s approval of this resolution was an irresponsible move which, at a greatly sensitive time, will make relations with a friend and ally” more difficult, the Anatolian News Agency quoted a Foreign Ministry statement as saying.

The Associated Press reported that the Armenian president, Robert Kocharian, today welcomed the resolution but also urged Turkey to join in talks with Armenia to restore bilateral relations.

The House decision rebuffed an intense campaign by the White House and earlier warnings from Turkey’s government that the vote would gravely strain its relations with the United States.

The vote was nonbinding and so largely symbolic, but its consequences could reach far beyond bilateral relations and spill into the war in Iraq.

Turkish officials and lawmakers warned that if the resolution was approved by the full House, they would reconsider supporting the American war effort, which includes permission to ship essential supplies through Turkey and northern Iraq.

Mr. Erdogan, speaking on CNN Turk television station on Wednesday, refused to say immediately what effect the resolution might have on the Incirlik base, a major transit station for American troops in Iraq.

Nancy Pelosi, the speaker of the House, said today that a vote could be put to the full House in the next few weeks, and in any case before the end of the current session on Nov. 16.

Before the Wednesday vote, President Bush appeared on the South Lawn of the White House and implored the House not to take up the issue, only to have a majority of the committee disregard his warning at the end of the day, by a vote of 27 to 21.

“We all deeply regret the tragic suffering of the Armenian people that began in 1915,” Mr. Bush said in remarks that, reflecting official American policy, carefully avoided the use of the word genocide. “This resolution is not the right response to these historic mass killings, and its passage would do great harm to our relations with a key ally in NATO and in the global war on terror.”

A total of 1.5 million Armenians were killed beginning in 1915 in a systematic campaign by the fraying Ottoman Empire to drive Armenians out of eastern Turkey. Turks acknowledge that hundreds of thousands of Armenians died but contend that the deaths, along with thousands of others, resulted from the war that ended with the creation of modern Turkey in 1923.

The House resolution was introduced early in the current session of Congress and has quietly moved forward over the last few weeks. But it provoked a fierce lobbying fight that pitted the politically influential Armenian-American population against the Turkish government, which hired equally influential former lawmakers like Robert L. Livingston, Republican of Louisiana, and Richard A. Gephardt, the former Democratic House majority leader, who backed a similar resolution when he was in Congress.

Backers of the resolution said Congressional action was overdue.

“Despite President George Bush twisting arms and making deals, justice prevailed,” said Representative Brad Sherman, a Democrat of California and a sponsor of the resolution. ”For if we hope to stop future genocides we need to admit to those horrific acts of the past.”

The issue of the Armenian genocide has perennially transfixed Congress and bedeviled presidents of both parties. Ronald Reagan was the only president publicly to call the killings genocide, but his successors have avoided the term.

cont's next post

When the issue last arose, in 2000, a similar resolution also won approval by a House committee, but President Clinton then succeeded in persuading a Republican speaker, J. Dennis Hastert, to withdraw the measure before the full House could vote. That time, too, Turkey had warned of canceling arms deals and withdrawing support for American air forces then patrolling northern Iraq under the auspices of the United Nations.

The new speaker, Nancy Pelosi, faced pressure from Democrats — especially colleagues in California, New Jersey and Michigan, with their large Armenian populations — to revive the resolution again after her party gained control of the House and Senate this year.

There is Democratic support for the resolution in the Senate, but it is unlikely to move in the months ahead because of Republican opposition and a shortage of time. Still, the Turkish government has made it clear that it would regard House passage alone as a harsh American indictment.

The sharply worded Turkish warnings against the resolution, especially the threats to cut off support for the American war in Iraq, seemed to embolden some of the resolution’s supporters. “If they use this to destabilize our solders in Iraq, well, then shame on them,” said Representative Joseph Crowley, a Democrat from New York who voted for it.

The Democratic leadership, however, appeared divided. Representative Rahm Emanuel, the fourth-ranking Democrat in the House, who worked in the Clinton White House when the issue came up in 2000, opposes the resolution.

In what appeared to be an effort to temper the anger caused by the issue, Democrats said they were considering a parallel resolution that would praise Turkey’s close relations with the United States even as the full House prepares to consider a resolution that blames the forerunner of modern Turkey for one of the worst crimes in history.

“Neither of these resolutions is necessary,” a White House spokesman, Gordon D. Johndroe, said Wednesday evening. He said that Mr. Bush was “very disappointed” with the vote.

Mr. Bush discussed the resolution in the White House on Wednesday with his senior national security aides. Speaking by secure video from Baghdad, the senior American officials in Iraq, Gen. David H. Petraeus and Ambassador Ryan C. Crocker, raised the resolution and warned that its passage could harm the war effort in Iraq, senior Bush aides said.

Appearing outside the West Wing after that meeting, Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates noted that about 70 percent of all air cargo sent to Iraq passed through or came from Turkey, as did 30 percent of fuel and virtually all the new armored vehicles designed to withstand mines and bombs.

“They believe clearly that access to airfields and to the roads and so on in Turkey would be very much put at risk if this resolution passes and the Turks react as strongly as we believe they will,” Mr. Gates said, referring to the remarks of General Petraeus and Mr. Crocker.

Turkey severed military ties with France after its Parliament voted in 2006 to make the denial of the Armenian genocide a crime.

As the committee prepared to vote Wednesday, Mr. Bush, the American ambassador to Turkey, Ross Wilson, and other officials cajoled lawmakers by phone.

Representative Mike Pence, a conservative Republican from Indiana who has backed the resolution in the past, said Mr. Bush persuaded him to change his position and vote no. He described the decision as gut-wrenching, underscoring the emotions stirred in American politics by a 92-year-old question.

“While this is still the right position,” Mr. Pence said, referring to the use of the term genocide, “it is not the right time.”

The House Democratic leadership met Wednesday morning with Mr. Sensoy, Turkey’s ambassador to Washington, and other Turkish officials, who argued against moving ahead with a vote. But Representative Steny H. Hoyer of Maryland, who now holds Mr. Gephardt’s old job as majority leader, said he and Ms. Pelosi would bring the resolution to the floor before Congress adjourned this year.

In Turkey, a fresh wave of violence raised the specter of a Turkish raid into northern Iraq, something the United States is strongly urging against. A policeman was killed and six others were wounded in a bomb attack in the Kurdish city of Diyarbakir in southeastern Turkey on Wednesday, the state-run Anatolian News Agency reported.

The Associated Press reported from the town of Sirnak that Turkish warplanes and helicopters were attacking positions along the southern border with Iraq that are suspected of belonging to Kurdish rebels who have been fighting Turkish forces for years.

The Turkish government continued to prepare to request Parliament’s permission for an offensive into Iraq, with Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan suggesting that a vote could be held after the end of Ramadan. Parliamentary approval would bring Turkey the closest it has been since 2003 to a full-scale military offensive into Iraq. Sadullah Ergin, a senior government official, said today that the request was likely to be brought to Parliament next week, possibly as early as Monday after a cabinet meeting that day, according to the Anatolian News Agency. Sedat Laciner, from the International Strategic Research Institution, said that the Turkish public felt betrayed by what was perceived as a lack of American support for Turkey in its battle against the Kurds.

“American officials could think that Turkish people would ultimately forget about the lack of U.S. support in this struggle,” Mr. Laciner said, using words that could apply equally to views about the Armenian genocide. “Memories of Turks, however, are not that easy to erase once it hits sensitive spots.”

Turks Angry Over House Armenian Genocide Vote (http://www.nytimes.com/2007/10/12/world/europe/12turkey.html?hp)

Turkey recalls ambassador over genocide resolution
October 12, 2007

WASHINGTON (CNN) -- Turkey has recalled its ambassador to the United States in response to a House resolution that would call the World War I massacre of Armenians by Turkish forces genocide, the Turkish Foreign Ministry said Thursday.

The House Committee on Foreign Affairs passed the measure 27-21 Wednesday, even though President Bush and key administration figures lobbied hard against it. The full House is expected to vote on it, possibly Friday.

A top Turkish official warned Thursday that consequences "won't be pleasant" if the full House approves the resolution.

"Yesterday some in Congress wanted to play hardball," said Egemen Bagis, foreign policy adviser to Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan. "I can assure you Turkey knows how to play hardball."

Asked about Ambassador Nabi Sensoy's recall after the news broke, a State Department spokesman said he could not confirm it. "People are sometimes called back for consultation; sometimes they're called back for other reasons," said spokesman Tom Casey.

"If they wanted to bring their ambassador back for consultations or do something else, that is their decision. I certainly think that it will not do anything to limit our efforts to continue to reach out to Turkish officials, to explain our views, to engage them on this issue and again to make clear that we intend to work on this with Congress."

Casey and White House spokeswoman Dana Perino said they both would like to see the resolution withdrawn without a vote by the full House. However, Casey said, "I don't think anyone is expecting that to happen at this point."

Democratic leaders said earlier if the Foreign Affairs Committee passed the resolution, they intended to bring it to the House floor. Video Watch why the resolution stirs strong emotions »

The House was not in session Thursday because of the funeral of Rep. Jo Ann Davis of Virginia, who died Saturday. Members may vote on the resolution Friday.

Turkey, a NATO member, has been a key U.S. ally in the Middle East and a conduit for sending supplies into Iraq.

Defense Secretary Robert Gates said Wednesday that good relations with Turkey are vital because 70 percent of the air cargo intended for U.S. forces in Iraq and 30 percent of the fuel consumed by those forces fly through Turkey.

U.S. commanders "believe clearly that access to airfields and roads and so on in Turkey would very much be put at risk if this resolution passes and the Turks react as strongly as we believe they will," Gates said.

Bagis said no French planes have flown through Turkish airspace since a French Parliament committee passed a similar resolution last year.

He said the response to the U.S. might not be the same, but warned if the full House passes it that "we will do something, and I can promise you it won't be pleasant."

Bagis spoke to reporters while in Washington to attend a meeting of the Carnegie Endowment.

In a statement on his Web site, Turkish President Abdullah Gul said the resolution was "unacceptable" and "doesn't fit a major power like the United States."

In a letter to Bush, Gul warned that "in the case that Armenian allegations are accepted, there will be serious problems in the relations between the two countries."

"We still hope that common sense will prevail and that the House of Representatives will not move this resolution any further," the Turkish Foreign Ministry Web site said.

The vote was also strongly criticized by Turkish newspapers, The Associated Press reported. "Bill of Hatred," said Hurriyet's front page, while Vatan's headline read "27 Foolish Americans."

Casey said Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice planned to speak with the Turkish foreign minister about the issue later Thursday and had requested calls with Erdogan and Gul.

State Department spokesman Sean McCormack issued a statement expressing "regret" for the committee's action, warning the resolution "may do grave harm to U.S.-Turkish relations and to U.S. interests in Europe and the Middle East."

The nonbinding House resolution said the deportation of nearly 2 million Armenians from the Ottoman Empire between 1915 and 1923, resulting in the deaths of 1.5 million of them, amounted to "genocide."

Turks strongly reject the genocide label, insisting there was no organized campaign against the Armenians and that many Turks also died in the chaos and violence of the period.

Sensoy said the resolution's passage would be a "very injurious move to the psyche of the Turkish people."

He predicted a backlash in the country, saying there would be setbacks on several fronts: Turkish-American relations, Turkish-Armenian relations and the normalization of relations between the nations of Turkey and Armenia.

The resolution's sponsor, Rep. Adam Schiff, D-California, said the measure already had 226 co-sponsors, more than enough votes to pass "and the most support an Armenian genocide resolution has ever received."

A similar resolution passed the committee by a 40-7 vote two years ago, but it never reached the full House floor.
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The resolution arrives at a particularly sensitive point in U.S.-Turkish relations. The United States has urged Turkey not to send its troops over the border into northern Iraq to fight Kurdish separatist rebels, who have launched some cross-border attacks against Turkish targets.

Observers of U.S.-Turkish relations have argued the House resolution could make Turkey less inclined to use restraint in dealing with its longstanding problems with the Kurdistan Workers Party.

Turkey recalls ambassador over genocide resolution (http://www.cnn.com/2007/POLITICS/10/11/us.turkey.armenians/index.html)

Turkey says it's ready for Iraq campaign

By SELCAN HACAOGLU, Associated Press Writer Fri Oct 12, 11:02 AM ET

ANKARA, Turkey - With Turkish-U.S. relations strained, Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan said Friday that Turkey would not be deterred by the diplomatic consequences if it decides to stage a cross-border offensive into Iraq against Kurdish rebels.

"If such an option is chosen, whatever its price, it will be paid," Erdogan told reporters in response to a question about the international repercussions of such a decision, which would strain ties with the United States and Iraq. "There could be pros and cons of such a decision, but what is important is our country's interests."

Erdogan also had harsh words for the United States, which opposes a Turkish incursion into northern Iraq — one of the country's few relatively stable areas.

"Did they seek permission from anyone when they came from a distance of 10,000 kilometers and hit Iraq?" he said. "We do not need anyone else's advice."

Analysts say Turkey could be less restrained about defying the United States because of a congressional committee's approval of a resolution labeling the mass killings of Armenians around the time of World War I as genocide.

"Democrats are harming the future of the United States and are encouraging anti-American sentiments," Erdogan said. Democratic leaders in the House of Representatives support the resolution.

Erdogan said Turkey was ready to sacrifice good ties with Washington if necessary.

"Let it snap from wherever it gets thin," Erdogan said, using a Turkish expression that means breaking ties with someone or something.

At issue in the resolution is the killing of up to 1.5 million Armenians by Ottoman Turks. Turkey denies that the deaths constituted genocide, saying the toll has been inflated, and those killed were victims of civil war and unrest that killed Muslims as well as the overwhelmingly Christian Armenians.

Turkey, a key supply route to U.S. troops in Iraq, recalled its ambassador to Washington for consultations and warned of serious repercussions if Congress passes the resolution.

"In the United States, there are several narrow-minded legislators who can't think of their own interests and who cannot understand the importance of Turkey," said Murat Mercan, head of the Turkish parliament's foreign relations committee.

Turkish authorities have refused to comment on whether Turkey might shut down Incirlik air base in southern Turkey, a major cargo hub for U.S. and allied military forces in Iraq and Afghanistan. Turkey's Mediterranean port of Iskenderun is also used to ferry goods to American troops.

The Yeni Safak newspaper, which is close to the Turkish government, said Friday that Incirlik and $15 billion worth of defense contracts, including purchase of warplanes, missile and radar systems, could be reviewed. Turkey could also prevent U.S. firms from taking part in new contracts, Yeni Safak said.

Erdogan said Turkey has long been seeking the cooperation of Iraq and the United States in its fight against Kurdish guerrillas, but there has been no crackdown on the rebel Kurdistan Workers Party, which has bases in Iraq. Erdogan said a recent anti-terrorism deal signed with Iraq was not valid since it had not been approved by Iraq's parliament yet.

The Turkish parliament was expected to approve a government request to authorize an Iraq campaign as early as next week, after a holiday ending the Islamic holy month of Ramadan.

"We are making necessary preparations to be ready in case we decide on a cross-border operation since we don't have patience to lose more time," Erdogan said, adding that Turkey has lost 30 people in rebel attacks over the past two weeks.

A Turkish soldier was killed in a mine explosion on Thursday night on Mt. Gabar in southeastern Sirnak province, authorities said Friday.

Turkish army units, backed by helicopter gunships, were hunting rebels in the rugged border area.

Bahoz Erdal, a senior rebel commander, said the PKK fighters were moving further inside Turkey and taking new "positions" in the face of attacks from Turkey, pro-Kurdish Firat News Agency reported Friday. The agency is based in Belgium.

The conflict has killed tens of thousands of people since 1984.

Turkey says it's ready for Iraq campaign (http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20071012/ap_on_re_mi_ea/turkey;_ylt=Ahsv08COWuaznVsNB0Y4luBvaA8F)

Turkey plans incursion, PKK says ready to attack

By Ferit Demir 1 hour, 10 minutes ago

TUNCELI, Turkey (Reuters) - Kurdish separatist rebels said on Friday they were crossing back into Turkey to target politicians and police after Ankara said it was preparing to attack them in the mountains of northern Iraq.

As regional tensions rose, Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan cautioned that relations between Ankara and Washington were in danger over a U.S. congressional resolution branding as genocide massacres of Armenians by Ottoman Turks in 1915.

Washington harbors growing concerns about the possibility of a major Turkish military incursion to crush Kurdish rebels seeking a homeland in eastern Turkey. U.S. officials fear such an action could destabilize a relatively peaceful area of Iraq.

Ankara recalled its ambassador from the United States for consultations after the U.S. vote, which was strongly condemned in predominantly Muslim but secular Turkey.

"We don't need anyone's advice on northern Iraq and the operation to be carried out there," Erdogan told a cheering crowd in Istanbul, after saying that the United States "came tens of thousands of kilometers and attacked Iraq without asking anyone's permission."

Referring to relations with the United States and the Armenian resolution, Erdogan, using a Turkish idiom usually employed to describe relations, said: "Where the rope is worn thin, may it break off." He did not elaborate.

"All prospects look bad ... and relations with the U.S. have already gone down the drain," Semih Idiz, a veteran Turkish commentator, told Reuters.

"If Turkey sets its mind on something, whether wrong or right it will do it. The invasion of Cyprus in 1974 is a good example," he said, referring to a Turkish invasion of northern Cyprus which drew U.S. condemnation and sanctions.

A statement by the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) could increase domestic pressure on Ankara to launch a big offensive that Washington fears could have ramifications in the region.

The United States relies heavily on Turkish bases to supply its war effort in Iraq.

Erdogan said his government was ready for any world criticism if Turkey launched an attack against some 3,000 PKK rebels who use north Iraq as a base to attack Turkish targets.

Ankara blames the PKK for the deaths of more than 30,000 people since the group launched its armed struggle for an ethnic homeland in southeast Turkey in 1984.

Some analysts say an offensive became more likely after the U.S. House of Representatives Foreign Affairs Committee approved the bill on Wednesday. Relations with Washington have hitherto been a strong restraining force on Turkey.

Turkey denies that genocide was committed but said many died in inter-ethnic fighting. It remains a sensitive issue, but many Turks are starting to more openly discuss such past taboos.

The PKK statement moved world oil prices back above $83 a barrel, traders said. The Kirkuk oil fields of northern Iraq feed export pipelines running north into Turkey.

ERDOGAN FACES MOUNTING PRESSURE

After a sharp escalation of attacks by Kurdish militants on Turkish troops, Erdogan's government, which faces pressure from the public and the army to act, has decided to seek approval from parliament next week for a major operation.

Erdogan said he wanted to secure approval now to avoid spending time later if and when an operation was warranted.

U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice called Erdogan on Thursday to express her disappointment at the U.S. Armenian bill, which the White House has tried to stop.

The non-binding Armenian resolution now goes to the floor of the U.S. House of Representatives, where Democrat leaders say there will be a vote next month. The resolution was proposed by a politician with many Armenian-Americans in his district.

Turkey has cautioned that the bill would have negative consequences for bilateral ties. Potential moves could include blocking U.S. access to the Incirlik air base, cancelling army contracts, downscaling bilateral visits, denying air space to U.S. aircraft, and halting joint exercises.

Iraqi Defence Minister Abdul-Qadir Mohammed Jasim held talks with Turkey's ambassador to Baghdad on Friday to seek ways to improve bilateral ties in fighting terrorism.

Erdogan said Turkey respected Iraq's unity but if it did

nothing to stop the PKK, considered a terrorist organization group by Washington, Ankara and the EU, then Ankara had to act.

Analysts and diplomats cast doubt on whether PKK rebels would leave their Iraqi hideouts for the southeast of Turkey where tens of thousands of heavily armed troops are positioned.

"The guerrillas are not moving to the south (northern Iraq); on the contrary they are moving to ... places in the north," the PKK said in a statement published on Firat news agency.

The PKK said its fighters planned to carry out attacks against the ruling AK Party, the main opposition CHP and the police unless certain conditions were met. It did not elaborate.

Turkey plans incursion, PKK says ready to attack (http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20071012/wl_nm/turkey_iraq_dc;_ylt=Ap9n8qr134xWs6h1tgqlmYAUewgF)

Putin told of plot to assassinate him during visit to Tehran
The Associated Press
Published: October 14, 2007

MOSCOW: Russian President Vladimir Putin has been told of a plot to assassinate him during a visit to Iran this week, a Kremlin spokeswoman said Sunday.

The spokeswoman, who spoke on customary condition of anonymity, refused further comment.

Interfax news agency, citing a source in Russia's special services, said suicide terrorists had been trained to carry out the assassination.

Putin is to travel to Tehran on Monday night from Germany after meetings with Chancellor Angela Merkel.

During his visit to Iran, Putin is to meet with President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and attend Tuesday's summit of Caspian Sea nations. He is the first Kremlin leader to travel to Iran since Josef Stalin attended the 1943 wartime summit with Winston Churchill and Franklin D. Roosevelt.

In Tehran, a spokesman for Iran's Foreign Ministry, Mohammad Ali Hosseini, denied any such plot had been uncovered and he characterized the news as disinformation spread by Iran's adversaries.

"These sort of reports are completely baseless and in direction with psychological operations of enemies of relations between Iran and Russia," Hosseini said in a statement.

Hosseini said, "Reporting of this type of sheer lie ... has no news value and cannot harm the planned schedule."

The official Islamic Republic News Agency called the reports part of a psychological war by the Western intelligence services aimed at forcing the cancellation of Putin's visit to Tehran.

Officials have reported uncovering at least two other plots to kill Putin on foreign trips since he became president in 2000.

Ukrainian security officials said they foiled an attempt to kill Putin during a summit in Yalta in August 2000.

In 2001, Russian security officials said a plot to assassinate Putin earlier that year in Baku, the capital of Azerbaijan, had been uncovered by the Azeri special services.

Russian officials linked both alleged plots to Chechen separatists. Putin had sent troops back into the southern Russian republic to crush resistance to Moscow's rule.

Putin told of plot to assassinate him during visit to Tehran (http://www.iht.com/articles/ap/2007/10/14/europe/EU-GEN-Russia-Putin-Threat.php)

Putin uses ballot rules to force foes from Russian Parliament
By Clifford J. Levy
Published: October 14, 2007

MOSCOW: Balloting for Parliament will be held across Russia in December, and this much is already clear: Vladimir Ryzhkov, who was first elected in the turbulent yet hopeful days after the Soviet Union's fall and then blossomed into a fervent advocate for democracy, will lose.

So will Viktor Pokhmelkin, who used his seat to crusade against corruption in the police and other law enforcement agencies. Swept away, too, will be Anatoly Yermolin, a KGB officer turned liberal stalwart who has been a lone voice in rebellion against President Vladimir Putin's expansive power.

Nearly eight years after Putin took office and began tightening his control over all aspects of the Russian government, he will almost certainly with this election succeed in extinguishing the last embers of opposition in Parliament.

Strict new election rules adopted under Putin, combined with the Kremlin's dominance over the news media and government agencies, are expected to propel the party that he created, United Russia, to a parliamentary majority even more overwhelming than its current one.

The system is so arrayed against all other parties that even some Putin allies have acknowledged that it harks back to the politics of the old days. Sergei Mironov, a staunch Putin supporter and the chairman of the upper house of Parliament, suggested recently that United Russia seemed to have been modeled on a certain forerunner.

"I think that the television broadcasts from the United Russia convention reminded a lot of people of long-forgotten pictures from the era of the Communist Party of the Soviet Union," said Mironov, leader of another pro-Putin party, Just Russia.

Putin's second presidential term expires next year, and under the Russian Constitution, he cannot run for a third consecutive term. At the lavishly choreographed convention of United Russia this month, he indicated that he would transfer his power base to the party and the Parliament and could become prime minister next year. The announcement raised the stakes for the December elections.

The president currently wields far more power than the prime minister, but that could change should Putin become prime minister.

Some analysts are speculating that Putin may try to create a parliamentary system with a strong prime minister and the presidency as a largely ceremonial post, akin to the arrangement in countries like Italy or Israel.

Putin has high approval ratings, and whatever the political climate, Russians today have far more economic and social freedoms than existed under Communism. Many people would like Putin to remain president, giving him credit for the strong economy and stability of recent years. Still, it appears that he is leaving little to chance in the parliamentary races.

"This is the first time in post-Soviet history when only the Kremlin decides who can participate and who can't," Ryzhkov said. "The Kremlin decides which party can exist and which party cannot.

"For the first time in post-Soviet history, a wide specter of political forces cannot participate in this election. I call it selection before election."

Ryzhkov's party, the Republican Party, one of the oldest in post-Soviet Russia, was disbanded by the government this year after it was accused of not having enough support under the new rules. Ryzhkov said his party easily met the standard but officials ignored the evidence in a sham proceeding.

First chosen in 1993, soon after the collapse of the Soviet Union, the Russian Parliament in its early years was a raucous center of power that often challenged the president at the time, Boris Yeltsin. In Putin's first term, it sometimes retained that role, but Putin has steadily reined it in, and these days it is considered little more than a sidekick of the Kremlin.

Putin has said that the tougher election rules are in part intended to eliminate the fractious politics that he asserts are caused by a proliferation of small parties. In recent months, he has contended that he is a champion of multiparty democracy, though he has also said that the system needs time to develop.

"We cannot build Russia's future by tying its many millions of citizens to just one person or group of people," he said last month. "We will not be able to build anything lasting unless we put in place a real and effectively functioning multiparty system and develop a civil society that will protect society and the state from mistakes and wrong actions on the part of those in power."

In the parliamentary elections on Dec. 2, Russians will vote only for parties, not for candidates. What is more, parties now need 7 percent of the national vote to gain seats in Parliament, up from 5 percent. They also need to submit proof that they have at least 50,000 members to be recognized as official parties, up from 10,000.

It now seems possible that United Russia's advantages are so great that it will be the only party to surpass 7 percent. In that case, since the Constitution requires at least one other party in Parliament, some token seats would be allocated to the second most popular one.

Andrew Kuchins, director of the Russia program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, said the liberal opposition was vulnerable because its leaders had quarreled and failed to present a united front. He said Putin seemed to want to establish United Russia as a force that would long dominate Russia, akin to the governing parties in Japan or Mexico in the 20th century.

"Putin has methodically over the last seven years been reducing the power of any other locus in the system that is independent," Kuchins said. "This is the final nail in the coffin. And it doesn't look like that coffin is going to get opened anytime soon."

Putin's allies said United Russia was winning elections not because the rules were biased, but because the public approved of Putin and valued the nation's new strength. They said Russians looked askance at the example of Ukraine, the neighbor to the west, where three leading parties have been closely matched and have regularly feuded over the last three years.

"For Russians, the Ukrainian scenario is terrifying," said Igor Dyomin, a spokesman for United Russia in Parliament.

Pokhmelkin, the member from Perm who is almost certain to lose his seat, said he had been increasingly marginalized in recent years, and sometimes even barred by United Russia from making speeches in Parliament. He said that he tried to prod the Kremlin on issues like police corruption and the rights of motorists, but that it was largely futile.

"The Parliament has been brought down to the level of a servant, serving the ruling bureaucracy," he said. "And there cannot be any other assessment."
Putin to discuss arms in Iran

President Vladimir Putin will show his preference for dialogue with Iran when he visits Tehran on Tuesday, amid calls from the West for stronger pressure on Iran to curb suspected plans for a nuclear bomb, Reuters reported from Moscow.

Putin, the first Kremlin chief to visit Iran since the Soviet dictator Josef Stalin went in 1943, will formally be in Tehran for a summit of Caspian Sea states.

But a meeting with Iran's president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, could give the Kremlin leader a chance to seek a peaceful compromise over Tehran's nuclear program and to demonstrate his independence from Washington on Middle East issues.

"Putin is going to Iran to show the importance of continuing diplomacy," Kremlin deputy spokesman Dmitry Peskov said.

Putin will tell Ahmadinejad that Russia accepts Iran's right to use nuclear energy but wants it to open up its nuclear program to international inspectors to prove it is peaceful, Peskov added.

Putin uses ballot rules to force foes from Russian Parliament (http://www.iht.com/articles/2007/10/14/europe/russia.php)

Turkish general warns US ties on ice

By C. ONUR ANT, Associated Press Writer 1 minute ago

ISTANBUL, Turkey - Turkey's top general warned that ties with the U.S., already strained by attacks from rebels hiding in Iraq, will be irreversibly damaged if Congress passes a resolution that labels the World War I-era killings of Armenians a genocide.

Turkey, which is a major cargo hub for U.S. and allied military forces in Iraq and Afghanistan, has recalled its ambassador to Washington for consultations and warned that there might be a cut in the logistical support to the U.S. over the issue.

"If this resolution passed in the committee passes the House as well, our military ties with the U.S. will never be the same again," Gen. Yasar Buyukanit told the daily Milliyet newspaper.

Despite the general's strong words, it is not clear how far Turkey will go to express its dismay to Washington.

Turkey suspended its military ties with France last year after the French parliament's lower house adopted a bill that that would have made it a crime to deny that the Armenian killings constituted a genocide.

But there is more at stake for NATO's only Muslim member when it comes to its relations with the U.S. The Turkish military, and especially the air force, is heavily dependent on the American defense industry, experts say.

Still, when Washington imposed an arms embargo against Turkey in 1975 due to a dispute over Cyprus, Turkey ended all its logistical support to U.S. troops and sharing of intelligence until the embargo was lifted, said Onur Oymen, the country's former permanent representative to NATO.

President Bush has said the resolution is the wrong response to the Armenian deaths, but House Speaker Nancy Pelosi said the measure's timing was important "because many of the survivors are very old."

In an interview broadcast Sunday with ABC's "This Week," Pelosi noted that the resolution would make the U.S. the 24th country to label the killings a genocide.

Rep. John Boehner, R-Ohio, said the measure was "irresponsible."

"Listen, there's no question that the suffering of the Armenian people some 90 years ago was extreme. But what happened 90 years ago ought to be a subject for historians to sort out, not politicians here in Washington," he told "Fox News Sunday."

About 70 percent of U.S. air cargo headed for Iraq goes through Turkey as does about one-third of the fuel used by the U.S. military there. Turkish truckers also carry water and other supplied to U.S. bases.

In addition, cargo planes fly supplies to U.S. soldiers in remote areas of Iraq from Incirlik, avoiding the use of Iraqi roads vulnerable to bomb attacks. U.S. officials say the arrangement helps reduce American casualties.

Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice has "urged restraint" from Turkey and sent two officials to Ankara in an apparent attempt to ease fury over the measure, which could be voted on by the House by the end of the year.

At issue in the resolution is the killing of up to 1.5 million Armenians by Ottoman Turks. Many international historians contend the deaths amounted to genocide, but Turkey says the mass killings and deportations were not systematic and that many non-Kurds also died in the chaos of war.

The congressional resolution comes as the Turkish parliament debates authorizing a military campaign into northern Iraq to root out rebels who seek a unified, independent nation for Kurds in the region.

U.S. officials have urged Turkey not to send troops and appealed for a diplomatic solution with Iraq. The Kurdish region in northern Iraq is one of the country's few relatively stable areas, and the Kurds here are also a longtime U.S. ally.

A Kurdish rebel commander on Saturday said Turkey would face a long and bloody conflict if it launched a large-scale offensive in northern Iraq.

Speaking to The Associated Press deep in the Qandil mountains straddling the Iraq-Turkish border, some 94 miles from the northern Iraqi Kurdish city of Sulaimaniyah, Murat Karayilan, head of the armed wing of the Kurdistan Workers' Party, or PKK, warned that an eventual Turkish incursion would "make Turkey experience a Vietnam war."

The PKK has been fighting for autonomy in southeast Turkey since 1984. The conflict has claimed tens of thousands of lives. Turkey says the rebels use Iraqi Kurdish territory as a safe haven. Iraqi and Kurdish authorities reject the claim.

Turkish general warns US ties on ice (http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20071014/ap_on_re_mi_ea/turkey_us;_ylt=AjIjHvnPYnsYLOWVMRvBTslvaA8F)

Iran wins security pledge at Putin summit
October 16, 2007

Philippe Naughton, and agencies in Tehran

President Putin used an historic visit to Iran today to make the case against Western military action and help deliver a regional security guarantee for the Islamic republic.

Mr Putin ignored warnings of a possible suicide attack against him to become the first Kremlin chief to visit Tehran since Josef Stalin met other Allied leaders there at the height of the Second World War in 1943.

After initial talks with his host, President Ahmadinejad, Mr Putin joined the leaders of Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan for a summit of Caspian Sea states - and quickly issued a barely-coded warning to the Azeris against military cooperation with the West.

Russian media have speculated that Washington might be trying to negotiate with Azerbaijan on the right to use military facilities in the Caucasus republic for a campaign against Iran, although Azeri officials have denied any such plans.

Today's summit did not reach agreement on their main objective - how to divide up the Caspian and its huge oil and gas reserves. But the five Caspian presidents did agree not to let a third country use their soil for an attack on any of the other coastal states.

The summit communique, handed to journalists in Tehran by Russian delegates before a televised signing ceremony, also stressed that "under no circumstances will they allow (the use of their) territories by third countries to launch aggression or other military action against any of the member states".

In another excerpt that will please Iran - already celebrating the propaganda value of Mr Putin's visit - the summit leaders said they acknowledged the rights of all signatories to the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty to develop peaceful atomic energy.

"The sides consider the Non-Proliferation Treaty ... one of the basic pillars of international security and stability," said the declaration, signed by the presidents of the five Caspian Sea states - Russia, Iran, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan.

They "also acknowledge the rights of all states which are parties to the Non-Proliferation Treaty to develop the research, production and use of nuclear energy for peaceful purposes ... under the IAEA (International Atomic Energy Agency) mechanism."

Mr Ahmadinejad described the declaration at a news conference as "very strong."

The Iranian President had welcomed Mr Putin and the other leaders with a call for closer co-operation on security issues and deeper economic ties.

"This cooperation - which is intended to prevent military competition in the sea and also warding off hostile forces and at the same time fighting organised crime - will require the establishment of a regional body in the near future," he said.

Mr Putin pushed ahead with the visit despite a warning from his own security service that he could be the target of a suicide bomb plot. Because of that threat - denied by Iran - security was tight, and Mr Putin arrived at Tehran airport at 0630BST today rather than last night, as was originally planned.

As well as meeting Mr Ahmadinejad, Mr Putin was expected to see Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran's supreme leader who has ultimate authority and the final say in all state matters such as nuclear policy.

His meetings with Iranian leaders could give Mr Putin a chance to seek a compromise on the nuclear issue that is souring international relations.

Iran is embroiled in a diplomatic standoff with Western nations over its nuclear programme, which it insists is needed to generate power but which its critics say is being used to develop atomic weapons. Washington has refused to rule out the use of military action if diplomacy fails to resolve the row.

Russia says that it sees no evidence that Iran is trying to develop nuclear weapons, and is resisting efforts at the UN Security Council to step up sanctions over Iran's refusal to fall into line with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).

The Security Council has imposed two rounds of limited sanctions on Iran, which were backed by Russia and five other world powers - the United States, France, Germany, Britain and China. Washington and Paris are trying to overcome Russian and Chinese resistance for a round of harsher, broader sanctions.

Mr Putin was also likely to discuss a dispute over Russian delays in building the Bushehr atomic power plant, Iran’s first. Russia says Iran is behind in its payments for the plant, which Tehran denies.

Iran wins security pledge at Putin summit (http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/middle_east/article2669816.ece)

Caspian states show united front on Putin's Iran visit
Oct 16, 2007

By Oleg Shchedrov and Parisa Hafezi

TEHRAN (Reuters) - President Vladimir Putin made clear to Washington on Tuesday that Russia would not accept military action against Iran and he invited Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad to Moscow for talks.

Putin made the invitation to Ahmadinejad, shunned by the West which fears his nuclear program is a cover for building atomic weapons, after meeting him and leaders of other Caspian Sea states who ruled out any strikes on Iran from their region.

Dates for Ahmadinejad's visit would be arranged through diplomatic channels, RIA news agency quoted a statement by the two leaders as saying.

Earlier, in comments aimed at the United States, Putin said during his talks in Iran: "We should not even think of using force in this region."

"We need to agree that using the territory of one Caspian Sea (state) in the event of aggression against another is impossible," he told the presidents of Iran, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan at a summit of Caspian Sea states.

Western nations accuse Tehran of seeking atomic weapons, a charge Tehran denies. Washington has refused to rule out the use of force if diplomacy fails to resolve the row.

Asked about Russia's invitation to Ahmadinejad, a U.S. State Department official said: "It's up to the Russians to determine how they want to manage their bilateral relations with Iran."

Putin's remarks about territory also appeared aimed at ex-Soviet Azerbaijan, where the U.S. military has inspected airfields. Russian media have suggested Washington might be trying to negotiate the right to use its military facilities. Baku denies this.

Russia is annoyed at what it sees as the West's attempts to end its influence in former Soviet states.

In a final declaration, the Caspian nations backed Putin's call, saying "under no circumstances will they allow (the use of their) territories by third countries to launch aggression or other military action against any of the member states".

The countries also backed the rights of signatories to the Non-Proliferation Treaty -- which includes Iran -- to develop peaceful nuclear energy.

Ahmadinejad, who says Tehran will not stop atomic work that he insists is peaceful, praised the Caspian declaration.

Putin's trip to Iran, the first made by a Kremlin leader since 1943, has been watched because of Russia's potential leverage, on behalf of fellow world powers, to rein in Iran using its trade and nuclear supply ties with Tehran.

PROGRESS ON BUSHEHR PLANT

Russia is building Iran's first atomic power plant in the port city of Bushehr. Russia says Iran is behind in payments for the plant, causing construction delays, but Iran says it is up to date and that Moscow is bowing to Western pressure.

Putin told Iranian media he could not provide guarantees for when fuel for the plant, also delayed, would be delivered. He said this would depend on discussions about the contract. The two sides agreed, Russian news agencies said, that Russia would complete work according to the "agreed timetable".

The timetable has regularly slipped and Putin's comments are likely to disappoint Iranian officials, who before his arrival, said they expected "good news" about Bushehr.

Putin turned up in Iran after shrugging off a Russian report about a plot to kill him during the trip. Russian officials had suggested he might change his plans. Iran dismissed the report.

Putin had bilateral talks with Ahmadinejad and also met Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who holds ultimate authority in Iran.

The U.N. Security Council has imposed two rounds of limited sanctions on Iran, which were backed by Russia and five other world powers -- the United States, France, Germany, Britain and China. Washington and Paris are pushing for tougher steps.

Moscow says it sees no evidence of a military program and is resisting Western calls for new sanctions. Russia has also been alarmed by talk in the West that the row could result in conflict. France has warned of a possible war.

But, in Washington, State Department spokesman Tom Casey was confident of Moscow's support as the U.S. and others push for more punitive action.

"We fully expect that we will have support from the Russian Government for our longstanding policy that has been crafted, not by the U.S. but by the members of the Security Council, starting with the P-5+1," he said, referring to the permanent five members of the U.N. Security Council plus Germany.

Caspian states show united front on Putin's Iran visit (http://www.reuters.com/article/topNews/idUSL1572571220071016)

U.S., Israel to study layered missile defenses

By Kristin Roberts and Dan Williams Tue Oct 16, 8:34 PM ET

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The United States and Israel agreed to work on a layered missile defense system to intercept ballistic missiles from Iran and Syria and smaller arms like those lobbed from Gaza and Lebanon, officials said on Tuesday.

Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak and U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates, in a meeting at the Pentagon, agreed to set up a joint committee to study how Washington might help the Jewish state produce the system, according to Pentagon press secretary Geoff Morrell.

An Israeli security source also said Barak and Gates talked about upgrading one of Israel's missile defense systems, Arrow II, designed to intercept missiles like those deployed by Iran and Syria.

"This proposal now has to go to the relevant work teams," that source said.

U.S. officials, however, have expressed skepticism about the ability of the Israeli systems to defeat shorter range missiles.

The Pentagon already is a partner on the Arrow II program. Israeli and U.S. engineers also are working on a parallel project, David's Sling, to defend against medium-range rockets like those fired by Hezbollah guerrillas during the 2006 Lebanon war.

Israel has been developing a third system called Iron Dome, which is meant to shoot down short-range Palestinian rockets.

Barak's visit to Washington is his first as defense minister. He and Gates, who worked together previously when both served in top intelligence positions, met on Tuesday first with their staff present and then privately for 35 minutes.

Israel's recent air strike on Syria was not discussed during the session that included staff, one official said.

Israel has failed to stem cross-border rocket attacks from Gaza, which it left in 2005 after 38 years of occupation. It fears a similar threat from the West Bank if troops depart.

Barak, a former prime minister who has made no secret of his hopes to retake the top office, recently said Israel should condition any handover of the West Bank to the Palestinians on a reliable anti-missile system first being in place.

But with Prime Minister Ehud Olmert set to attend a U.S.-sponsored peace summit with Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas as early as next month, Barak was less categorical during his Washington talks.

"The defense minister laid out Israel's security concerns regarding the missile threat," said Barak spokesman Ronen Moshe. "He did not come to set terms for a future territorial compromise."

U.S., Israel to study layered missile defenses (http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20071017/ts_nm/usa_israel_dc_1)

Turkish Parliament to OK Iraq Mission

Wednesday, October 17, 2007
By SUZAN FRASER, Associated Press Writer
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ANKARA, Turkey —
Syria's president said Wednesday that Turkey had a right to stage a cross-border incursion into northern Iraq to chase separatist Kurdish rebels as the Turkish parliament began debating the issue.

Turkish leaders have stressed that an offensive against the rebels of the Kurdistan Workers Party, or PKK, would not immediately follow the motion authorizing the incursion.

Hours before the vote, Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki called his Turkish counterpart asking that diplomacy be given a chance before Turkey sends troops across the border to pursue separatist Kurds in mountain hide-outs, the state-run Anatolia news agency reported.

Al-Maliki said Iraq was "determined" to end PKK activities on its territory and had given "strict instructions" to the regional Iraqi Kurdish administration in Iraq's north on the issue, Anatolia said.

Al-Maliki asked that Iraq be given more time and said it he was sending a delegation to Turkey to discuss cooperation, Anatolia said.

Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan responded by saying Turkey could "not tolerate losing any more time," the agency reported.

Erdogan's aides were not immediately available to confirm the conversation.

Visiting Syrian President Bashar Assad said Turkey had a legitimate right to stage a cross-border offensive.

"We understand that such an operation would be aimed toward a certain group which attacks Turkish soldiers. We support decisions that Turkey has on its agenda, we are backing them," Assad told reporters. "We accept this as Turkey's legitimate right. As Syria, we are supporting all decisions by Turkey and we are standing behind them."

Iraq on Tuesday also dispatched one of its two vice presidents to Ankara who also called for diplomacy.

"Iraq must be given the chance to stop PKK rebels who cross the border before Turkey takes any step," Anatolia quoted Iraqi Vice President Tariq al-Hashimi as saying before he left Ankara.

"I got what I wanted from our talks. There is a new atmosphere to stop the current crisis," he was also quoted as saying. Al-Hashimi met Tuesday with Erdogan and other Turkish officials.

On Wednesday, an alliance spokesman said NATO Secretary-General Jaap de Hoop Scheffer has spoken to Turkey's president, adding his voice to international calls for restraint in the crisis with Iraq.

Turkey invited ambassadors from countries bordering Iraq and other Middle Eastern nations to the Foreign Ministry for a briefing on why it was passing the motion in parliament.

The motion, authorizing an attack into Iraq sometime in the next year, has the backing of all but one party in parliament. Only a small Kurdish party has said it would vote against it.

"The passage of the motion in parliament does not mean that an operation will be carried out at once," Erdogan said Tuesday. "Turkey will act with common sense and determination when necessary and when the time is ripe."

Public anger over attacks by Kurdish guerrillas is high but Turkish officials are mindful that two dozen Iraqi campaigns since the 1980s have failed to eradicate the PKK. A cross-border attack into northern Iraq could also strain ties with the United States, a NATO ally that opposes any disruption of its efforts to stabilize Iraq.

Kurdish rebels from the PKK have been fighting since 1984 for autonomy in Turkey's Kurdish-dominated southeast, a conflict that has claimed tens of thousands of lives.

Turkey has complained about what it considers a lack of U.S. support in the fight against the PKK, a frustration with Washington intensified because of another sensitive issue: the killing of up to 1.5 million Armenians in the final years of the Ottoman Empire.

A panel in the U.S. House approved a resolution last week labeling the killings genocide, an affront to Turks who deny there was any systematic campaign to eliminate Armenians. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi has said she will schedule a vote soon on the resolution, which President Bush opposes.

Turkish Parliament to OK Iraq Mission (http://www.foxnews.com/printer_friendly_wires/2007Oct17/0,4675,Turkey,00.html)

Turkey Lawmakers OK Possible Iraq Attack
Oct 17, 11:09 PM (ET)

By CHRISTOPHER TORCHIA

ISTANBUL, Turkey (AP) - Parliament authorized the government Wednesday to send troops into northern Iraq to root out Kurdish rebels who've been conducting raids into Turkey. The vote removed the last legal obstacle to an offensive, but there was no sign of imminent action as the United States urged restraint.

Turkish leaders, under pressure from Washington and Baghdad, have signaled they would not immediately give the order to send in 60,000 soldiers, armor and attack helicopters into a region that has largely escaped the chaos of the Iraq war.

The crisis along the border, where the Turkish troops have massed since summer, has driven up oil prices along with tensions between Turkey and its longtime NATO ally, the United States.

President Bush said the U.S. was making clear to Turkey that it should not stage a major army operation in the Iraqi north, much of which has escaped the sustained violence and political discord common in the rest of Iraq since the U.S.-led invasion in 2003.

Bush said Turkey has had troops stationed in northern Iraq "for quite a while," a reference to about 1,500 soldiers deployed for years to monitor the rebel Kurdistan Workers' Party, or PKK, with the permission of Iraqi Kurd authorities.

"We don't think it's in their interest to send more troops in," he said.

While they now have the authority to strike at PKK bases used to stage attacks in Turkey, the country's leaders appear to be holding back in hopes the threat of an incursion will prod Iraq and the U.S. to move against the guerrillas.

The Turkish military, which had little success when it last carried out a major incursion into Iraq a decade ago with 50,000 soldiers, estimates 3,800 Turkish Kurd guerrillas operate from Iraq territory and 2,300 are inside Turkey.

As Parliament voted 507-19 to approve military operations against PKK fighters in northern Iraq over the next year, Turkey's government moved to explain its decision to its Arab neighbors, sending Foreign Minister Ali Babacan to both Egypt and Lebanon.

Oil prices surged briefly to a record $89 a barrel after the vote. Traders worry that any escalation in the conflict will cut oil supplies from northern Iraq.

Hours before the vote, Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki called his Turkish counterpart, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, to say Iraq's government was determined to halt "terrorist activities" of the PKK on Iraqi territory, his office said.

A close aide to al-Maliki said later that the two leaders agreed the Iraqis should deal with PKK fighters based inside Iraq and the Turks would take care of guerrillas operating in Turkish territory.

But Erdogan warned that Iraq must rein in the guerrillas, the aide said. "If you don't solve the problem now, we will have no choice but to pursue the PKK inside Iraq," he quoted the Turkish leader as saying.

The aide, who spoke on condition of anonymity because he wasn't authorized to discuss the confidential conversation, added that there would be no joint operations involving Iraqi and Turkish troops. He said Iraq would not agree to more Turkish soldiers entering its territory.

Erdogan had suggested that Turkey, Iraq and the U.S. conduct a joint campaign against the PKK. But U.S. and Iraqi troops are hard pressed elsewhere, and Iraqi Kurds are reluctant to fight their ethnic brethren from Turkey.

A Kurdish lawmaker in Iraq warned an incursion would threaten the relative stability of the autonomous Kurdish region in the north and called on Turkey to deal with the issue "in a peaceful way."

gotcha98 al-Mufti, speaker of the regional parliament, also said he believed Turkey had ulterior motives aimed at upsetting the success of the Kurdish region in Iraq because it fears separatist sentiment within its own borders.

PKK fighters operating from bases in the mountains of northern Iraq periodically cross the border to stage attacks in their war to win autonomy for Turkey's predominantly Kurdish southeast. More than 30,000 people have died in fighting that began in 1984.

The authorization for an offensive inside Iraq had the backing of all of Turkey's parliamentary parties except a small Kurdish party. A single lawmaker from the opposition Republican People's Party voted against it.

"I am concerned that Turkey could be dragged into an Iraqi quagmire," said the lawmaker, Esref Erdem.

Turkish leaders have said publicly that they would prefer a solution to the guerrilla problem that avoids a cross-border offensive, but Erdogan has warned that Turkey will take whatever steps it must to defeat the PKK.

"What's important is the parliament's decision, not what people say," Erdogan said.

Public anger is high in Turkey over a recent spate of guerrilla attacks in the southeast as well as a perception that the United States has failed to back Turkey in its fight with the PKK, even though Washington lists the movement as a terrorist group.

Sam Brannen, an international security fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said the U.S. had "underestimated the value of Turkey as a strategic ally" and created problems for itself by angering Turks with its failure to curb PKK activity in northern Iraq.

He said others in the region, such as Iran, Syria and al-Qaida in Iraq, could take advantage of strained Turkish-American relations and a destabilized northern Iraq.

"It's not happening in a vacuum. There are other state and non-state actors who would see some advantage in drawing Turkey into the conflict," Brannen said. "It's really hard to see what U.S. leverage will be in this situation."

At a White House news conference, Bush urged the Democratic-controlled Congress not to worsen tensions by approving a resolution labeling as genocide the World War I-era killing of up to 1.5 million Armenians by Turks as the Ottoman Empire crumbled.

Noting the number of domestic bills pending before Congress, Bush said, "One thing Congress should not be doing is sorting out the historical record of the Ottoman Empire."

Turkey, which argues the deaths came during civil unrest and not from a planned campaign to eradicate Armenians, is furious over the measure and has threatened repercussions if it is adopted. Turkey is a key route for moving supplies to U.S. troops in Iraq and Afghanistan.

The House vote to label the bloodshed nearly a century ago as genocide was in jeopardy after several Democrats withdrew their support and sounded alarms it could cripple U.S.-Turkish relations.

Soner Cagaptay, director of the Turkish program at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, said failure of the measure might lead Turkey's leaders to forgo military action in northern Iraq as a conciliatory gesture to Washington.

Pentagon press secretary Geoff Morrell indicated U.S. military leaders felt Turkey was not committed to invading Iraq.

"It would have enormous implications, not just for us but for the Turks, and I don't think there is any rush to war on the part of the Turks," Morrell said.

But Cagaptay said another serious PKK attack would probably trump diplomatic gestures.

"If there's another massive PKK attack, killing a dozen civilians, you can expect they will go in within the next 24 hours," he said.

Turkey Lawmakers OK Possible Iraq Attack (http://apnews1.iwon.com//article/20071018/D8SBCTSG0.html)

Russia working on new nuclear weapons

Russia's Putin takes on public's questions on US, Iran and country's nuclear capabilities in Moscow's sixth annual presidential-public meet

Dudi Cohen
Published: 10.18.07, 12:24
Israel News

Russian President Vladimir Putin said Thursday he believes a direct dialogue, rather than continuing Western sanctions, would be more effective in solving the crisis revolving around Iran's nuclear program.

Putin addressed the question in an annual event held in Moscow, the sixth of its kind so far, where he customarily answers the Russian people's questions regarding matters of State.

"A direct dialogue with the countries we have disagreements with is always a better, more effective way, to deal with differences than threatening sanctions, or use of force," said Putin. (like some of the attacks Russia has made, here of late.... DW)

Earlier Thursday, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad denied reports claiming Putin and he discussed the Iranian nuclear program. Putin, said the Iranian president, "offered nothing but friendship and cooperation."

When asked of his opinions on US moves in Iraq, Putin suggested that the US military campaign in Iraq had turned into a campaign against the Iraqi people.

Putin was also asked whether or not he thought the US was eyeing Russia's resources: "I know that some politicians play with such ideas in their heads. This, in my view, is such political erotica that might satisfy a person but hardly leads to a positive result," said Putin.

"Russia, thank God, isn't Iraq," he added. "It has enough strength and power to defend itself and its interests, both on its territory and in other parts of the world."

Russia, said Putin, was working on new types of nuclear weapons: "We will develop missile technology including completely new strategic (nuclear) complexes… the work is continuing and continuing successfully."

Russia working on new nuclear weapons (http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-3461341,00.html)

Putin calls for powerful Russia parliament

By Michael Stott Thu Oct 18, 10:22 AM ET

MOSCOW (Reuters) - Russian President Vladimir Putin called on Thursday for a powerful parliament and unchanged policies after he leaves the Kremlin, hinting he may go on to use a power base in parliament to dominate the country.

Putin's intentions after his second presidential term ends next year have attracted intense interest following his decision to head the candidates' list of United Russia, the biggest political party, and consider becoming a future prime minister.

"In 2007 and 2008 we have parliamentary and presidential elections and there will be a different person in the Kremlin," Putin said in a three-hour question-and-answer session with citizens televised live.

"In these conditions it is extremely important to preserve a stable path of development for our state and the continuity of decisions taken in the past few years... It is vital that parliament is effective."

Putin spent most of the session talking about domestic, bread-and-butter issues such as pensions, wages, schools, prices and investment in Russia's crumbling infrastructure.

With an eye on a parliamentary election in December, Putin repeatedly hailed Russia's high economic growth and improved living standards. He promised higher pensions to help fight runaway inflation, which is heading for double digits this year.

Speaking to soldiers at the Plesetsk Cosmodrome in Russia's far north who earlier on Thursday test-fired a ballistic missile, Putin promised new nuclear and conventional weapons as part of Moscow's military build-up.

He referred more than once to Iraq's experience, which he said showed the need for Russia to keep strong defenses to counter countries that might try to grab its energy resources.

"Thank God Russia is not Iraq," Putin told a questioner. "It is strong enough to protect its interests."

Putin told the United States to set a date for withdrawing all troops from Iraq and said it was "absolutely unacceptable to keep the occupation force in place ... for eternity.

CENTRE OF GRAVITY

An analyst said Putin's remarks about a strong parliament contained clues to how he will retain influence after 2008.

"One of the scenarios is that there will be a strong pro-Putin majority in parliament and the centre of gravity of political life will move towards that majority," independent analyst Dmitry Oreshkin told Reuters.

"Since parliament will in effect be controlled by Putin then correspondingly all policy in the country will be controlled by Putin."

On foreign policy, Putin warned Washington against striking Iran, whose nuclear program has been the subject of United Nations sanctions.

Touching on Washington's plans for a missile defense shield in Europe and Asia, which have angered Russia, Putin said the United States was trying to address Moscow's concerns.

But he said Russia may decide to re-deploy its weapons if its interests were not heeded.

Speaking in front of a studio backdrop decorated in Russia's national colors, the president congratulated troops on successfully test-firing a long-range missile, praised the national soccer team for beating England the previous day and pledged new and better weapons for the armed forces.

"We will develop missile technology including completely new strategic (nuclear) complexes, completely new," Putin said. "Work is continuing and continuing successfully."

"We will not only give attention to the whole nuclear triad -- strategic rocket forces, strategic aviation and the nuclear submarine fleet -- but also other types of weapons."

Putin has said he will lend his support to a preferred presidential candidate in the elections but gave no hint on Thursday of who that might be.

Prime Minister Viktor Zubkov was the only top official he praised by name. Putin extolled the virtues of Zubkov's fight against corruption in his previous role running a anti-money laundering watchdog.

Putin calls for powerful Russia parliament (http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20071018/wl_nm/russia_putin_dc;_ylt=AmSyjaJiyo_23ZVTFcpjeD50bBAF)

Gorbachev founds new Russian political movement
AFP
By Olga Nedbayeva AFP - Saturday, October 20 12:00 pm

MOSCOW (AFP) - Former Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev founded a new political movement on Saturday aimed at fighting democratic abuses in Russia, but not at challenging President Vladimir Putin's rule.

"We are putting our hopes in the efforts that Putin is making" to reform Russia, Gorbachev told some 200 delegates at the founding congress of the Union of Social-Democrats in central Moscow.

But Gorbachev, 76, who will lead the movement, also highlighted "negative tendencies," including a lack of real political debate, pressure being put on non-governmental groups and high levels of corruption.

"We are fighting for power, but only for power over people's minds," said Gorbachev.

His new movement is not a political party and will therefore not take part in parliamentary elections in December.

United Russia, the dominant party in the Russian parliament, is set for a landslide victory in the elections after Putin announced earlier this month that he would run as its top candidate.

The deadline for parties to register for the elections passed on October 17.

A statement issued by the movement said that "the potential for free democratic choice and political competition is being limited.... This is why social-democrats are uniting to fight for the values of freedom and fairness."

Gorbachev was the last general secretary of the Communist Party and is generally unpopular in Russia as he is associated with a period of political upheaval and economic collapse.

After his attempts at reforming Communism fell through and the Soviet Union broke apart in 1991, he became head of the Russian Social-Democratic Party, which failed to win any seats in the 2003 parliamentary elections.

He has received numerous awards in the West and is a frequent speaker at international events. He has a more visible public role in Russia as head of the Gorbachev Foundation, which funds charity and education.

In his speech on Thursday, Gorbachev praised Putin for not changing the country's constitution to allow himself to run for a third consecutive term, when his period in office runs out next year.

"The president was under pressure and the fact that he did not give in to it is important from the point of view of democracy," Gorbachev said, referring to calls for Putin to change the constitution.

Putin, who came to power in 2000, remains very popular in Russia as he is credited with the country's economic revival and with boosting Russia's role in world affairs.

Russians are to elect a new president in March 2008 but there is still uncertainty about what role Putin could play in Russia's political future and who his favoured successor might be.

Gorbachev founds new Russian political movement (http://uk.news.yahoo.com/afp/20071020/tpl-russia-politics-gorbachev-ee974b3_1.html)

Turkey: U.S. Won't Stop Iraq Invasion
Prime Minister Says American Objections Will Not Deter Fight Against Kurdish Rebels

ANKARA, Turkey, Oct. 25, 2007

(CBS/AP) Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan said Thursday that U.S. objections would not stop Turkey from crossing into Iraq to eliminate Kurdish rebels. The Turkish military said it had killed more than 30 insurgents who were poised to launch an attack on the border.

President Abdullah Gul said Turkey is running out of patience with the Kurdish separatist attacks. A steady stream of U.S.-made Turkish fighter jets roared into the skies near the Iraqi border, loaded with bombs.

The Turkish military said it had spotted a "group of terrorists" near a military outpost in the province of Semdinli close to the border with Iraq on Tuesday and fired on them with tanks, artillery and other heavy weaponry. It said the group had been preparing for an attack.

In a statement posted on its Web site, the military said the troops kept firing on the group as they escaped toward the Iraqi territory. The report increased the official number of alleged rebels killed since Sunday to at least 64.

The Bush administration is urging Turkey not to launch an incursion that would destabilize Iraq's autonomous Kurdish north, the country's most stable region. But Erdogan said the U.S. desire to protect the north would not hinder Turkey's fight against the rebels from the Kurdistan Workers' Party, or PKK, who use mountain bases to rest, train and get supplies in relative safety before returning to Turkey to carry out attacks against government forces in the heavily Kurdish southeast.

"They (the Bush administration) might wish that we do not carry out a cross-border offensive, but we make the decision on what we have to do," Erdogan said during a visit to Romania. "We have taken necessary steps in this struggle so far, and now we are forced to take this step and we will take it."

He said that the U.S. should repay Turkish assistance for the invasion of Afghanistan with support for Turkey's struggle against the Kurdish rebels, who want autonomy in the southeast.

"Right now, as a strategic ally, the USA is in a position to support us. We have supported them in Afghanistan," he said.

The leader of Iraq's semi-autonomous Kurdish region, used as a base by the PKK, spoke recently to CBS News correspondent Elizabeth Palmer about the rapidly-building tension along the border with Turkey.

Massoud Barzani, seen at left, said there was no military solution to the decades-old conflict between the PKK and Turkey, and urged both sides to reach a political solution.

Barzani told Palmer that during the past three months, as Turkey stepped up its attacks on the rebels using artillery and airstrikes, "they haven't wounded any of the PKK fighters". The claim contradicted the Turkish military's purported count of 64 militants killed.

"If Turkey comes up with a peaceful solution, and the PKK refuses it, we are ready to do anything against the PKK. But if Turkey is using the PKK as an excuse to fight with us, we are ready to defend ourselves," Barzani said.

His comments revealed the deeply-rooted mistrust between Kurds and Turks that drives the simmering conflict in Kurdish Iraq. The stability of the region, which remains a bastion of relative peace and tranquility in Iraq, would be destroyed by an all-out battle between Turkish forces and the PKK. (Special Report)

Asked whether he would support U.S. military action to crackdown on the PKK, he again said it would bring no positive results. The border region is rugged and mountainous, and the militants know the area well.

"Even if all the U.S. Army goes in, they won't find one PKK guerilla," Barzani said.

An AP Television News cameraman saw two F-4 fighter jets flying low along the Iraqi border on an apparent reconnaissance mission, a day after warplanes reportedly pounded rebel positions along the border. Separately, at least five F-16 warplanes loaded with bombs were seen taking off from a base in the southeastern city of Diyarbakir, local reporters said. A batch of F-16s had took off from the same base earlier Thursday as well.

"We are totally determined to take all the necessary steps to end this threat," Gul said in Ankara before a visit by a delegation of high-level Iraqi officials.

Turkey is "expecting them to come with concrete proposals - otherwise, the visit will have no meaning," Foreign Minister Ali Babacan said.

The delegation is headed by Iraqi Defense Minister Abdul-Qader al-Obeidi and will include Minister of State for National Security Sherwan al-Waili, said Yassin Majid, an adviser to Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki.

"The political choice will be the first solution to solve the crisis. The Iraqi government insists on dialogue and cooperation to solve the crisis," Majid said.

Iraq has promised to shut down offices used by rebel bases. But Turkey wants Iraq and U.S. forces to destroy the bases and extradite the rebel leadership to Turkey.

Turkey's top leadership has called for both an incursion and economic measures against northern Iraq if Turkey's demands are not met. The self-ruling Kurdish administration in Iraq's landlocked north relies heavily on Turkish investment and fuel imports.

Turkish troops have killed hundreds of Kurdish rebels since Jan. 1, the state-run Anatolia news agency said, citing military sources. It did not say how many Turkish soldiers have died, but about 30 troops have been killed this month alone.

On Sunday, a rebel ambush near the border killed 12 soldiers. Eight soldiers have been missing since then; the rebels say they are holding them hostage and have distributed photographs and video.

U.S., Turkish and Iraqi officials are working to free the hostages, Matthew Bryza, the U.S. deputy assistant secretary of state for European and Eurasian affairs, said at a meeting in Ankara of officials from Black Sea nations. He also said Washington has increased the level of cooperation in intelligence sharing with Turkey.

Turkey: U.S. Won't Stop Iraq Invasion (http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2007/10/25/iraq/main3408593.shtml)

Attack Iran and you attack Russia
By Pepe Escobar
Oct 26, 2007

The barely reported highlight of Russian President Vladimir Putin's visit to Tehran for the Caspian Sea summit last week was a key face-to-face meeting with Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

A high-level diplomatic source in Tehran tells Asia Times Online that essentially Putin and the Supreme Leader have agreed on a plan to nullify the George W Bush administration's relentless drive towards launching a preemptive attack, perhaps a tactical nuclearstrike, against Iran. An American attack on Iran will be viewed by Moscow as an attack on Russia.

But then, as if this were not enough of a political bombshell, came the abrupt resignation of Ali Larijani as top Iranian nuclear negotiator. Early this week in Rome, Larijani told the IRNA news agency that "Iran's nuclear policies are stable and will not change with the replacement of the secretary of the Supreme National Security Council [SNSC]." Larijani will keep attending SNSC meetings, now as a representative of the Supreme Leader. He even took time to remind the West that in the Islamic Republic all key decisions regarding the civilian nuclear program are made by the Supreme Leader. Larijani actually went to Rome to meet with the European Union's Javier Solana alongside Iran's new negotiator, Saeed Jalili, a former member of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), just like President Mahmud Ahmadinejad.

In itself, the Putin-Khamenei meeting was extraordinary, because the Supreme Leader rarely receives foreign statesmen for closed talks, even one as crucial as Putin. The Russian president, according to the diplomatic source, told the Supreme Leader he may hold the ultimate solution regarding the endlessly controversial Iranian nuclear dossier. According to IRNA, the Supreme Leader, after stressing that the Iranian civilian nuclear program will continue unabated, said. "We will ponder your words and proposal."

Larijani himself had told the Iranian media that Putin had a "special plan" and the Supreme Leader observed that the plan was "ponderable". The problem is that Ahmadinejad publicly denied the Russians had volunteered a new plan.

Iranian hawks close to Ahmadinejad are spinning that Putin's proposal involves Iran temporarily suspending uranium enrichment in exchange for no more United Nations sanctions. That's essentially what International Atomic Energy Agency chief Mohammad ElBaradei has been working on all along. The key issue is what - in practical terms - will Iran get in return. Obviously it's not the EU's Solana who will have the answer. But as far as Russia is concerned, strategically nothing will appease it except a political/diplomatic solution for the Iranian nuclear dossier.

US Vice President Dick Cheney - who even Senator Hillary Clinton now refers to as Darth Vader - must be foaming at the mouth; but the fact is that after the Caspian summit, Iran and Russia are officially entangled in a strategic partnership. World War III, for them, is definitely not on the cards.

Let's read from the same script
The apparent internal controversy on how exactly Putin and the Supreme Leader are on the same wavelength belies a serious rift in the higher spheres of the Islamic Republic. The replacement of Larijani, a realist hawk, by Jalili, an unknown quantity with an even more hawkish background, might spell an Ahmadinejad victory. It's not that simple.

The powerful Ali Akbar Velayati, the diplomatic adviser to the Supreme Leader, said he didn't like the replacement one bit. Even worse: regarding the appalling record of the Ahmadinejad presidency when it comes to the economy, all-out criticism is now the norm. Another former nuclear negotiator, Hassan Rowhani, told the Etemad-e Melli newspaper, "The effects of the [UN] sanctions are visible. Our situation gets worse day by day."

Ahmadinejad for the past two months has been placing his former IRGC brothers-in-arms in key posts, like the presidency of the central bank and the Oil, Industry and Interior ministries. Internal repression is rife. On Sunday, hundreds of students protested at the Amir-Kabir University in Tehran, calling for "Death to the dictator".

The wily, ultimate pragmatist Hashemi Rafsanjani, now leader of the Council of Experts and in practice a much more powerful figure than Ahmadinejad, took no time to publicly reflect that "we can't bend people's thoughts with dictatorial regimes".

This week, the Supreme Leader himself intervened, saying, "I approve of this government, but this does not mean that I approve of everything they do." Under the currently explosive circumstances, this also amounts to a political bombshell.

As if anyone needed to be reminded, the buck - or rial - stops with the Supreme Leader, whose last wish on earth is to furnish a pretext for the Bush administration to launch World War III. If Ahmadinejad now deviates from a carefully crafted strategic script, the Supreme Leader may simply get rid of him.

Attack Iran and you attack Russia (http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/IJ26Ak06.html)

Putin: US plans reminiscent of Cuban missile crisis

Russian president draws parallel between US plans for missile shield in Europe, 1962 missile crisis; however, Putin says tensions much lower this time because US-Russia relations better today

Reuters and AP
Published: 10.26.07, 18:30
Israel News

Russia's President Vladimir Putin drew a parallel on Friday between US plans for a missile shield in Europe and the Cuban missile crisis in 1962, widely regarded as the closest the world came to nuclear war.

"I would remind you how relations were developing in an analogous situation in the middle of the 1960s," he said when asked at a news conference about Washington's plans to station elements of a missile defense shield in Eastern Europe.

"Analogous actions by the Soviet Union when it deployed rockets on Cuba provoked the Cuban missile crisis," Putin said after an EU-Russia summit in Portugal.

"For us, technologically, the situation is very similar. On our borders such threats to our country are being created," the Russian leader said.

However, Putin suggested the tension was much lower than during the Cuban missile crisis because Russian-US relations have moved on since the Cold War. He said he feels the United States is listening to Moscow's concerns about its missile plans and called US President George W. Bush a friend.

"Thank God, we do not have any Cuban missile crisis now and this is above all because of the fundamental way relations between Russia and the United States and Europe have changed," Putin said.

Speaking on another topic, the Russian leader said he would not assume presidential powers if he became prime minister after stepping down as Russian president in the spring.

"If someone thinks that I intend to move, let's say, into the government of the Russian Federation and transfer the fundamental powers there, that's not the case," he said at a news conference at the conclusion of an EU-Russian summit in Portugal.

"There will be no infringement on the powers of the president of the Russian Federation, at least while it depends on me."

Putin: US plans reminiscent of Cuban missile crisis (http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-3464425,00.html)

Turkey were coming for the Kurds

By DAVID RISING, AP
43 minutes ago

ANKARA, Turkey —

Turkey's top military commander promised Saturday to make Iraq-based Kurdish rebels "grieve with an intensity that they cannot imagine," while the prime minister said his nation would fight "when needed," regardless of international pressure.

The military chief, Gen. Yasar Buyukanit, said Friday that Turkey would wait until Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan met with President Bush in Washington on Nov. 5 before deciding on any cross-border offensive.

But Erdogan said his country could not be pinned down by dates in deciding whether to attack.

"We can't say when or how we will do it, we will just do it," he said.

Clashes between government forces and guerrilla fighters have been escalating since the rebels broke a cease-fire in 2004. Kurdistan Workers' Party, or PKK, fighters have killed at least 42 people in the past month. Those casualties included some 30 Turkish soldiers in two ambushes that were the boldest attacks in years.

"We are determined to make those who cause this sadness grieve with an intensity that they cannot imagine," Buyukanit said.

The bellicose comments come amid an increasing nationalist fervor in Turkey, with the country's red flag with white crescent and star _ and images of modern Turkey's founding father, Mustafa Kemal Ataturk _ draped over scores of balconies, displayed in the backs of cars, and sold by vendors walking the streets.

Thousands took to the streets of several Turkish cities, condemning the PKK and pushing for action.

Some 1,000 people chanted "down with the U.S.A., down with the PKK" outside the U.S. Embassy in Ankara and said they were ready to fight the Kurdish rebels, yelling "we're all soldiers."

Hundreds more people marched in Istanbul, while another 1,500 _ mostly children _ took to the streets of the predominantly Kurdish city of Sirnak, in southeastern Turkey near the Iraqi border.

Military helicopters shuttled more troops in to the mountains near Iraq, while patrols secured roads and checkpoints.

In a show-of-force exercise about 20 miles from the border, near the village of Ikizce, a group of Turkish tanks fired 10 rounds into the mountains toward Iraq.

Elsewhere, Turkish forces shelled two Iraqi areas along the western portion of the 205-mile border, Iraqi border guard officer Col. Hussein Tamr said.

Meanwhile, the PKK indicated it was considering the release of eight Turkish soldiers it captured in an operation on Oct. 21 in response to calls by a lawmaker.

Ahmet Turk, a Kurdish member of Turkey's Parliament, called Wednesday for the soldiers to be released unharmed.

Speaking in the northern Iraqi city of Sulaimaniyah, PKK spokesman Abdul-Rahman Al-Chaderchi said the group was working on a response.

"Within a short time we will end the issue of the captives," Al-Chaderchi told The Associated Press.

A military campaign in Iraq could derail one of the few stable areas in Iraq, and trap the United States in an awkward position between key allies: NATO-member Turkey, the Baghdad government and the self-governing Iraqi Kurds in the north.

But talks between Iraqi and Turkish official on Friday failed to produce any breakthroughs and the Iraqi delegation returned home on Saturday.

Turkey were coming for the Kurds (http://www6.comcast.net/news/articles/general/2007/10/24/Turkey.Iraq/)

'Saudi Arabia is not a passageway for any force in the world'
Kuwait News Agency - 27 October, 2007

Saudi Crown Prince Sultan bin Abdul-Aziz Al Saud said Friday his nation would never become a passageway or shelter for any force in the world.

This came in a press statement after inaugurating his nation's new embassy building at Kuwait's embassies zone.

Asked if Saudi Arabia would allow the US to use any of the Gulf's military bases to attack Iran, Prince Sultan said his country was not "a crossing point or shelter for any force in the world." Commenting on Iran's declaration to attack the Gulf region if assaulted by the US, Prince Sultan said it was not in Iran's interest to harass any side.

As for the issue of the three United Arab Emirates (UAE) islands occupied by Iran, he said this was a complex issue and these islands were Arab no matter what claims were made by Iran or any other side.

He said the new embassy did not only belong to Saudi Arabia as it was both Arab and Islamic, adding that establishing it in Kuwait did not make it an embassy in the traditional sense, but rather an embodiment of Kuwaiti-Saudi diplomatic cooperation.

Regarding Kuwait's care for about 120,000 Saudi nationals residing in it, he believed they were lucky to be in this nation.

On his part, Kuwait's Deputy Premier and Foreign Minister Sheikh Dr. Mohammad Sabah Al-Salem Al-Sabah said this building was not only an embassy, but it was also Saudi Arabia's house in Kuwait.

He hoped both nations would always be close through further mutual respect as part of their 200-year historical ties, noting that such relations could not be described with words.

Asked if Prince Sultan's visit included discussing matters such as oil and borders, Sheikh Mohammad said these issues had been taken care of a long time ago a they were jointly settled since 1965.

Regarding extraordinary measures in the face of potential Iranian threats in the region, he believed there were not any Iranian threats against Kuwait, noting that every nation in the world has the right to take self-protection measures.

As for Saudi Ambassador to Kuwait Dr. Abdul-Aziz Al-Fayez, he said the embassy's inauguration was a historical occasion, adding that Prince Sultan's patronage of this occasion came from his deep respect for Kuwait.

This embassy would handle administrative affairs that would be limited in light of distinguished Saudi-Kuwaiti ties and constant consultations between the two nations' leaderships, he said.

Al-Fayez said before heading to Kuwait that he had met with Saudi King Abdullah bin Abdul-Aziz Al Saud, Prince Sultan and Interior Minister Prince Naif who all stressed serving Saudi citizens residing or visiting Kuwait.

The embassy will do its best in serving all Saudi citizens in accordance with rules and regulations, said Al-Fayez.

The inauguration was also attended by Governor of Riyadh Prince Salman bin Abdul-Aziz Al Saud, as well as head of the accompanying mission of honor and chairman of Kuwait's National Security Apparatus Sheikh Ahmad Fahad Al-Ahmad Al-Sabah.

'Saudi Arabia is not a passageway for any force in the world' (http://www.gulfinthemedia.com/index.php?id=352889&news_type=Top%E2%8C%A9=en)

Jordan's king says ties with China warmer, deeper
2007-10-28 23:35:30

AMMAN, Oct. 28 (Xinhua) -- Bilateral relations between Jordan and China have gained momentum in recent years, becoming warmer and deeper in almost every aspects, Jordanian King Abdullah II told Xinhua prior to his visit to China.

In an exclusive interview with Xinhua, King Abdullah said "we in Jordan are very pleased that, in recent years especially, our (Jordan and China) ties have grown warmer and deeper in nearly every field," noting that China is one of Jordan's most important development partners.

Abdullah will pay a state visit to China from Oct. 29 to Nov. 1,the fifth Beijing tour since he succeeded to the throne in 1999.

"I think that this visit is going to result in a couple of new agreements that reflect the momentum in our relationship," he said, adding that the Jordan Investment Board and the China Development Bank will respectively open an office in Beijing and Jordan.

"This reflects the scope of potential for cooperation in many fields, especially among our respective private sectors," he said.

China and Jordan also share some fundamental values when it comes to issues of security, especially fighting terrorism and concerns about nuclear weapons proliferation, Abdullah said.

"So I fundamentally believe that there are bridgeheads to a much more comprehensive relationship between Jordan and China and, in fact, a broader strategic relationship between the Arab world and China," he said.

The king also expressed his appreciation to the changes and pace of progress China has experienced in recent years, saying that the "discipline and focus with which China has pursued development is very much admired in my part of the world."

The king also disclosed that the two countries will celebrate the 30th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations during his visit to China, terming it "a milestone year" in the two countries' relationship.

Commenting on the 2008 Olympic Games, the king said he always looks forward to every Olympic Games as a showcase of athletic excellence, noting that the Beijing Olympics would display more.

"I believe millions of people everyday read about China's extraordinary growth and progress," he said, adding that "there is a lot of additional excitement around the world just because China is hosting the games."

He said "for many people, the Olympics are going to be a window into China, its culture and its contemporary achievements in many areas," saying that "I have no doubt that China will make the upcoming games one of the most memorable in history."

During the interview, the king also expressed his country's optimism towards a U.S.-proposed international conference on the Middle East peace slated for later this year in Annapolis, the United States.

He said "what we've been hearing back from the U.S., the EU, the(Middle East) Quartet, has given us some reason for optimism."

"This is especially important right now," he said, for "the peace meeting to be hosted by the U.S. provides an important opportunity" for resolving the chronic Palestinian-Israeli conflict.

"The international community is working very hard to make sure this happens," Abdullah said, noting that U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and the Quartet's envoy Tony Blair have visited the region respectively in efforts to narrow the differences.

The king also voiced Jordan's hope that the international peace meeting will deliver concrete results, namely "an agreement in principle on the final status issues that will set the agenda for negotiations and a clear timeframe."

"All of these will convince the people of the region that the parties are seriously committed to peace and that an end to this conflict is in sight," he said.

Bilateral ties have been developing smoothly since China and Jordan established diplomatic relations in 1977 and the two sides have enjoyed fruitful cooperation in economy, trade, culture, and tourism.

China is currently Jordan's third largest foreign trade partner, with bilateral business transactions reaching 1.031 billion U.S. dollars in 2006.

Jordan's king says ties with China warmer, deeper (http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2007-10/28/content_6967160.htm)

Egypt to Build Nuclear Plants

By SALLY BUZBEE – 3 hours ago

CAIRO, Egypt (AP) — Egypt's president announced plans Monday to build several nuclear power plants — the latest in a string of ambitious such proposals from moderate Arab countries. The United States immediately welcomed the plan, in a sharp contrast to what it called nuclear "cheating" by Iran.

President Hosni Mubarak said the aim was to diversify Egypt's energy resources and preserve its oil and gas reserves for future generations. In a televised speech, he pledged Egypt would work with the U.N. nuclear watchdog agency at all times and would not seek a nuclear bomb.

But Mubarak also made clear there were strategic reasons for the program, calling secure sources of energy "an integral part of Egypt's national security system."

In Washington, State Department spokesman Sean McCormack said the U.S. would not object to the program as long as Egypt adhered to the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty and International Atomic Energy Agency guidelines.

"The problem has arisen, specifically in the case of Iran, where you have a country that has made certain commitments, and in our view and the shared view of many ... (is) cheating on those obligations," he said.

"For those states who want to pursue peaceful nuclear energy ... that's not a problem for us," McCormack said. "Those are countries that we can work with."

The United States accuses Iran of using the cover of a peaceful nuclear program to secretly work toward building a bomb, an allegation Iran denies. Iran asserts it has a right to peaceful nuclear power and needs it to meet its economy's voracious energy needs.

Iran's program has prompted a slew of Mideast countries to announce plans of their own — in part simply to blunt Tehran's rising regional influence.

"A lot of this is political and strategic," said Jon Wolfsthal, a nonproliferation expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington.

Egypt is highly sensitive to the fact that Iran hopes to open its Bushehr nuclear plant next year, said Mohamed Abdel-Salam, director of the regional security program at Al-Ahram Center for Political and Strategic Studies in Cairo.

"(Iran's) regional role, as well as Iran's political use of the nuclear issue, have added to Egypt's sensitivity," he said. Other Arab countries' recent nuclear announcements "added extra pressure on Egypt not to delay any more."

Jordan, Turkey and several Gulf Arab countries have announced in recent months that they are interested in developing nuclear power programs, and Yemen's government signed a deal with a U.S. company in September to build civilian nuclear plants over the next 10 years.

Algeria also signed a cooperation accord with the United States on civil nuclear energy in June, and Morocco announced a deal last week under which France will help develop nuclear reactors there.

Despite the declarations of peaceful intentions, there are worries the countries could be taking the first steps toward a dangerous proliferation in the volatile Mideast.

Such fears intensified when Israel launched a Sept. 6 airstrike against Syria, a country allied with Iran that the United States accuses of supporting terrorism.

U.S. officials have been quoted in news reports as saying the strike targeted a North Korean-style structure that could have been used for the start of a nuclear reactor.

Syria denies that it has a secret nuclear program, and says the building was an unused military facility.

Israel has not officially commented on the raid or acknowledged carrying it out.

But Mohamed ElBaradei, the head of the U.N. watchdog agency, the International Atomic Energy Agency, this weekend criticized Israel and the U.S. for failing to provide the IAEA with any evidence backing up the claim of a Syrian nuclear program.

Following a policy it calls "nuclear ambiguity," ;D Israel has never confirmed nor denied having a nuclear weapons program itself.

Mordechai Vanunu, a former technician at an Israeli nuclear plant, spent 18 years in prison after giving details of the country's atomic program to a British newspaper in 1986. His information led many outside experts to conclude that Israel has the world's sixth-largest stockpile of nuclear weapons.

Egypt first announced a year ago that it was seeking to restart a nuclear program that was publicly shelved in the aftermath of the 1986 accident at the Soviet nuclear plant in Chernobyl.

Mubarak offered no timetable Monday, but a year ago, Hassan Yunis, the minister of electricity and energy, said Egypt could have an operational nuclear power plant within 10 years.

Egypt has conducted nuclear experiments for research purposes on a very small scale for the past four decades, at a reactor northeast of Cairo, but they have not included the key process of uranium enrichment, the IAEA says.

Abdel-Salam said Egypt has extensively studied a site for a plant, at El-Dabaa on the Mediterranean coast west of Alexandria, and predicted a facility could be built within three years.

Outside experts were more conservative, with Wolfsthal saying a decade or longer was more likely. Egypt will almost certainly have to rely on extensive foreign help to build a plant, he said.

Egypt to Build Nuclear Plants (http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5jm4ZYXFCe0sYoGZHG1HODletwVvwD8SJ31Q02)

Sudan president says will export ethics and morals to Western countries
Monday 29 October 2007.

By: Wasil Ali

October 28, 2007 (KHARTOUM) — The Sudanese president Omar Al-Bashir lashed out at Western countries and accused them of “lacking ethics and morals”.

“Western nations have no ethics or morals and we will export it to them. These countries have the political, military and economic strength. We are strong with our values and we are waiting on Allah’s promise to obliterate them” Al-Bashir said while addressing crowds at the White Nile state capital.

The Sudanese president accused western countries of wanting to control the oil reserves in Darfur “just like they did in Iraq”.

“We are not afraid of sanctions and war if they are forced on us” he said.

Peace talks to end the 4 year conflict in Darfur has convened in Libya with the absence of the major rebel groups reducing hopes for an end to the fighting.

Al-Bashir sent a message to the rebel groups saying “they [Western countries] don’t like you and they will be of no good to you. They want us to fight each other and it is better that we come together”.

Sudan’s president said his government is prepared to go to war if necessary before saying “we don’t want war”.

Al-Bashir added that his government signed the peace agreement in the South while they were victorious.

“We were victorious [militarily] in Torit, Blue Nile and Nuba mountains” he said.

The southern ex-rebels Sudan People Liberation Movement (SPLM) decided to suspend their participation in the national unity government because of what they describe as the NCP’s failure to fully implement crucial elements of the Comprehensive peace agreement (CPA).

The latest move by the SPLM raised concern that the CPA that ended two decades of civil war between the Arab and Muslim-dominated north and the mainly Christian and animist black southerners may unravel.

The 2005 peace agreement brokered by the US and other western countries ended two decades of civil war between the Arab and Muslim-dominated north and the mainly Christian and animist black southerners.

Sudan president says will export ethics and morals to Western countries (http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?page=imprimable&id_article=24488)

Jordan's king urges stronger role for China in Middle East peace process

The Associated Press
Monday, October 29, 2007

BEIJING: King Abdullah II of Jordan urged China on Tuesday to take a more active role in helping broker peace in the Middle East.

China's growing influence could speed up a resolution of the Israel-Palestinian conflict and other lingering regional tensions, Abdullah said at the start of a closed-door meeting with Chinese President Hu Jintao.

He said he hoped for a stronger Chinese role because "you are always considered an honest broker and are very well-respected in our part of the world."

Abdullah's remarks echoed a speech he gave earlier in the day at the elite Peking University. He told students that "China's role is destined to increase in the future" because it is a permanent veto-holding member of the U.N. Security Council and has good relations with all parties in the Mideast.

Hu praised the China-Jordan relationship as being "in very good shape."

"I will be very happy to have an in-depth exchange of views with you on bilateral relations and regional and international issues of common interest," he said after a welcoming ceremony at the cavernous Great Hall of the People, the seat of China's legislature.

Following the meeting, Chinese and Jordanian officials signed agreements covering economic cooperation, affordable housing, nuclear energy, cultural exchanges, and investment. No details were given.

The visit from Abdullah marked the 30th anniversary of diplomatic relations between the countries.

China maintains good relations with Israel and the Arab states, and in recent years has shown a willingness to get more involved in resolving regional conflicts. China's special envoy to the Middle East has made repeated trips for consultations with leaders in the region, but with little effect so far on events there.

Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Liu Jianchao said at a regular briefing Tuesday that China has a relationship of "friendly cooperation" with Jordan.

"We hope by this visit the cooperation ... can be enhanced," Liu said.

Abdullah has voiced support for a U.S.-sponsored peace conference scheduled for next month or December, maintaining that the only way for Israel to enjoy stability and security is to establish a Palestinian state living in peace alongside it.

Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert has poured cold water on the proposed conference, however, saying that would not result in a final deal with the Palestinians and may not take place at all.

Abdullah, whose nation signed a peace treaty with Israel in 1994, was visiting Beijing at the same time as Israeli Foreign Ministry Tzipi Livni, although there were no indications that the two had met.

In a speech Monday, Livni pushed China to back new sanctions against Iran to convince its hardline Islamic regime to drop its nuclear program. She was due to hold talks with Premier Wen Jiabao and her Chinese counterpart Yang Jiechi before meeting reporters later on Tuesday.

Israel maintains that Iran is a threat to its existence and has hinted it could strike militarily if the international community allows Iran to develop nuclear arms.

Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, who insists his country's nuclear ambitions are peaceful, has repeatedly called for Israel's destruction.

China backed two rounds of U.N. sanctions, but has since joined fellow permanent Security Council member Russia, in opposing new measures.

Jordan's king urges stronger role for China in Middle East peace process (http://www.iht.com/bin/printfriendly.php?id=8107006)

Russian envoy on surprise visit to Iran
By Nazila Fathi
Tuesday, October 30, 2007

TEHRAN: The Russian foreign minister will make a surprise visit to Iran Tuesday to meet with President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and discuss Iran's nuclear program, Russian and Iranian news agencies reported.

Sergey Lavrov, who was on a visit in Kazakhstan in Central Asia, said he would make a working visit to Iran to meet Ahmadinejad in Tehran at 4 p.m. local time, the Interfax news agency reported.

In Moscow, a Russian Foreign Ministry spokesman, Mikhail Kamynin, said Lavrov would discuss Iran's nuclear activities as well as bilateral ties, Interfax said.

"A number of issues connected to the situation around Iran's nuclear program and a number of questions of bilateral questions will be discussed," the news agency reported.

Lavrov's visit comes two weeks after the Russian president, Vladimir Putin, made a landmark trip to Iran, the first Kremlin leader to travel there since 1943. He has insisted on a diplomatic solution to the international standoff over Iran's nuclear program.

After Putin's visit, Iran's former chief nuclear negotiator, Ali Larijani, said the Russian president had delivered a proposal to Iran's supreme religious leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who has the last word on state matters.

Neither the Iranians nor the Russians would disclose any details, but Larijani said it involved a new way to help resolve the nuclear standoff and the Iranian side was studying it.

State-run television and news agencies quoted Ayatollah Khamenei at the time as telling Putin, "We will think about what you said and about your proposal," even as he added that Iran was "determined to provide our country's need for nuclear energy."

Larijani resigned over differences with Ahmadinejad last week.

Since then, the United States announced new unilateral sanctions on Iran, accusing its Revolutionary Guards of illegally spreading weapons of mass destruction.

Putin criticized the move. "Why worsen the situation by threatening sanctions and bring it to a dead end?" he asked, news agencies quoted him a saying.

Russian envoy on surprise visit to Iran (http://www.iht.com/bin/printfriendly.php?id=8113321)

Turkey pounds rebels, warns US over ties

by Hande Culpan Tue Oct 30, 2:11 PM ET

SIRNAK, Turkey (AFP) - The Turkish army pounded Kurdish rebels near the Iraqi border Tuesday as Ankara warned that ties with Washington would suffer as long as the separatists in northern Iraq are not reined in.

Cobra helicopters fired missiles at rebel positions on the Cudi mountains in Sirnak province, which borders Iraq. Three soldiers have been killed in the clashes, officials said.

Smoke from artillery fire could be seen above the rugged hills while at least one Sikorsky transport helicopter dropped off troops and a convoy of military trucks headed for the Iraqi border.

Amid a mounting campaign, about 100 members of the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) were surrounded Monday in neighbouring Hakkari province after the army blocked their escape routes to Iraq.

One soldier was killed at the weekend during a crackdown on rebels in Tunceli province to the north. Unconfirmed media reports said 15 PKK militants were killed in the clashes.

In Ankara, Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan warned the United States that its failure to help end the PKK safe haven in northern Iraq would harm the relationship between the two long-standing NATO allies.

Scheduled to meet US President George W. Bush at the White House on November 5, Erdogan called for "concrete, urgent steps" against the PKK, which Washington, like most of the international community, considers a terrorist group.

"The problem of the PKK terrorist organisation is a sincerity test for everybody," Erdogan said. "I will tell him (Bush) that this test carries great importance for the region and in determining the fate of our future relations."

He said he would discuss "the groups on which the terrorist organisation relies" -- an apparent reference to the Iraqi Kurds, who administer northern Iraq and are accused by Ankara of tolerating and even supporting the PKK.

"Our talks (with Bush) will make them better understand that Turkey's patience has run out and that we are determined to unhesitatingly take all the steps to finish off terrorism," he said.

In a separate diplomatic initiative, UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon announced he would travel to Turkey this weekend to attend a ministerial meeting of countries neighboring Iraq. US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice is to attend the Istanbul meeting which is likely to be overshadowed by the Turkish threats of military action.

The Turkish army has reportedly massed about 100,000 troops along the Iraqi border after parliament gave approval for a military incursion into northern Iraq to root out the militants.

Tensions at the frontier increased after October 21 when PKK rebels, who Turkey says infiltrated from northern Iraq, ambushed a military unit and killed 12 soldiers. Eight troops were captured.

The army has confirmed killing 65 rebels since then.

The crisis will enter a crucial diplomatic stage Friday when Rice meets Turkish leaders in Ankara before Erdogan's Washington visit.

She will hold talks with Erdogan, Foreign Minister Ali Babacan and President Abdullah Gul, a US embassy official said.

The State Department had initially said she would be in Ankara Thursday.

Rice will then participate in the conference on Iraq in Istanbul on Friday evening and Saturday, which Iraqi Foreign Minister Hoshyar Zebari will also attend.

Washington, strongly opposed to Turkish military action in northern Iraq, is stuck in an awkward position between two key allies -- NATO member Turkey and the Iraqi Kurds.

Defying Turkish pressure, Massud Barzani, head of the Kurdish regional government in northern Iraq, said he would take no "orders" from Ankara to crack down on the PKK bases.

"I am a friend of Turkey but I am not taking orders from Turkey or anyone else," Barzani told Turkey's Milliyet newspaper in an interview published Tuesday.

He urged the PKK to lay down arms and called on Turkey to consider a political solution to the Kurdish problem, including an amnesty for rebels.

Turkey pounds rebels, warns US over ties (http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20071030/wl_afp/turkeykurdsunrest;_ylt=AmvY6LhZEf8BT02w64Di5bys0NUE)

Turkey: Fighting with Kurds will surge

By SUZAN FRASER, Associated Press Writer Tue Oct 30, 5:04 PM ET

ANKARA, Turkey - Turkey's prime minister said Tuesday increased military action against separatist Kurdish rebels was "unavoidable" and pressed the United States for a crackdown on guerrilla bases in northern Iraq.

Turkish helicopters pounded rebel positions near the border with rockets for a second day and Turkey brought in troops by the truckload in an operation against mountainside emplacements.

Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan told members of his party in parliament "it is now unavoidable that Turkey will have to go through a more intensive military process."

But he also suggested he was not seeking an immediate cross-border offensive against the rebels of the Kurdistan Workers' Party, or PKK, holed up in bases in northern Iraq. "The responsibility of leadership does not allow for narrow mindedness, haste or heroism," he said.

"We must remember that Turkey is part of this world and diplomacy has certain requirements," Erdogan added, suggesting the world expected Turkey to exhaust all nonmilitary options.

Erdogan flies to Washington on Nov. 5 for talks with President Bush that could be key to whether Turkey carries out its threat of a major military incursion. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice is also expected in Turkey later this week.

"We will openly express that we expect urgent steps from the United States, which is our strategic partner and ally and has a special responsibility regarding Iraq," Erdogan said.

The United States, Iraq and other countries have been calling on Turkey to refrain from a cross-border campaign, which could throw one of the few stable areas in Iraq into chaos. A Turkish incursion would also put the United States in an awkward position with key allies: NATO-member Turkey, the Baghdad government and the self-governing Iraqi Kurds in the north.

White House press secretary Dana Perino said Bush's discussions with Erdogan would include "the fight against terrorism — in particular our joint efforts to counter the PKK."

Turkish Cobra attack helicopters blasted suspected PKK targets in the Mount Cudi area, near the southeastern border with Iraq for a second day, trying to hunt down some 100 rebels believed to be hiding in mountainside caves, the private Dogan news agency reported.

The fighting has claimed the lives of three Turkish soldiers and six guerrillas, local news reports said.

Transport helicopters flew in commando units to block possible rebel escape routes on Cudi, Dogan reported.

An AP Television News cameraman said attack helicopters escorted four Black Hawk helicopters on Cudi, as they airlifted soldiers to the mountain and picked others up. Smoke could be seen rising from areas that had been hit in the attacks.

Dogan reported a 100-vehicle military convoy traveling from Cizre toward the border.

A Kurdish political party warned that the fighting threatened to increase animosity between the Turkish and Kurdish populations in Turkey.

Turkey is "moving toward a dangerous war in our region which will seriously damage historical relations between Turks and Kurds," Nurettin Demirtas, a senior party official, told reporters.

Erdogan's Cabinet scheduled a meeting for Wednesday to discuss possible economic measures against groups supporting the Kurdish rebels.

Deputy Prime Minister Hayati Yazici said Turkey was considering a series of sanctions against the self-governing Kurdish administration in Iraq's north.

Yazici would not give any details, but the Iraqi region is heavily reliant on Turkish electricity and food imports, as well as Turkish investment in construction. There has been talk of shutting down the Habur border crossing — the only vehicular route into Iraq from Turkey.

Jamal Abdullah, a spokesman for the Iraqi Kurd regional government, complained that economic sanctions "would represent a collective punishment against Kurdistan's people."

He warned that Turkey and the U.S. Army also would suffer if the border crossing was closed. About 70 percent of U.S. air cargo headed for Iraq goes through Turkey, as does about one-third of the fuel used by the U.S. military there.

Massoud Barzani, the leader of Iraq's Kurdish region, called for a peaceful solution to the crisis.

"We believe that military action is not the solution. We are not part of this problem and we will not allow anyone to drag us into a war that is not our war," Barzani said at a news conference after a meeting of the regional parliament in Irbil.

At least 46 people have been killed by the PKK in Turkey over the past month, according to government and media reports. Those included at least 30 Turkish soldiers killed in two ambushes that were the boldest attacks in years and increased domestic pressure on Erdogan to act.

Turkey: Fighting with Kurds will surge (http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20071030/ap_on_re_mi_ea/turkey_iraq_91;_ylt=AkLfGq7OZY7JtDx_jH7t7cCROrgF)

Muslim Brotherhood Urges Jordan to Dissolve Treaty with Israel

by Hana Levi Julian

(IsraelNN.com) The Islamist organization that is outlawed in Egypt but tolerated in Jordan has called for the dissolution of the treaty signed 13 years ago between the Hashemite Kingdom and Israel.

In a statement released Tuesday, the Islamic Action Front (IAF), the political arm of the Muslim Brotherhood organization, blamed some of Jordan's problems on the October, 1994 peace agreement.

"Since the signing of the peace treaty with Israel, freedoms and the rights of citizens have retreated in an unprecedented way. Political and economic reforms have stopped," said the statement, according to the AFP news agency.

The group also urged the Jordanian government to boycott the upcoming U.S.-sponsored Middle East Summit, to be held before the end of the year in Annapolis, Maryland.

"We call on Jordan and other Arab and Muslim countries to boycott the autumn meeting and not be involved in a conspiracy of normalization [with Israel]," said the statement.

Islamist Extremist Group is Tolerated in Jordan
The Muslim Brotherhood is the largest political opposition organization in a number of Arab nations, including Egypt, where it has been outlawed and where its members are often arrested prior to elections. In Kuwait, the group opposes allowing women to vote.

The organization is tolerated in Jordan where the Islamic Action Front, which currently holds 17 of the 110 seats in the Jordanian parliament, plans to run 22 candidates in next month's elections. Five of its members were expelled for running in parliamentary elections as independents without the permission of the party.

Sayyid Qutb, the late ideological father of the Muslim Brotherhood, called for the worldwide re-establishment of Sharia (Islamic religious law) and the use of "physical power and Jihad to abolish the organizations and authorities of the Jahili (pagan) system." The group believes all Islamic governments must eventually be united under a global Caliphate.

Muslim Brotherhood Urges Jordan to Dissolve Treaty with Israel (http://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/124089)

Israel to UN: Hezbollah has tripled its land-to-sea missile arsenal
By Barak Ravid, Haaretz Correspondent

Hezbollah has tripled its arsenal of C-802 land-to-sea missiles and has rehabilitated its military strength north of the Litani River, according to information handed over by Israel to the United Nations.

The information was included in a report compiled by UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon on the implementation of Security Council Resolution 1701, which brought the Second Lebanon War to an end.

During the war, a C-802 missile struck the INS Hanit off the Lebanese coast, killing four naval servicemen.

Ban said in the report that Israel had transferred a great deal of information demonstrating that Hezbollah has rehabilitated its military strength north of the Litani River.

The report states that, according to Israel, Hezbollah's long-range missile teams are deployed north of the river, and that "most of the new missiles include [the Iranian-made] Zelzal and Fajr missiles that have a range of over 250 kilometers and are capable of hitting areas south of Tel Aviv."

The report added that Israel says Hezbollah has established an anti-aircraft unit armed with surface-to-air missiles.

Ban said Israel has also informed the UN of an increase in Hezbollah activity south of the Litani, but stressed that Israel refused to provided intelligence information on the matter due to the sensitive nature of the sources.

The report stated that Hezbollah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah's recent speeches lend credence to Israel's claims, but said senior Hezbollah officials have told the UN that "Nasrallah's comments were intended solely to deter possible aggression and not in order to threaten Israel."

The report was handed over to Security Council member states before being made public Wednesday.

According to the report, Israel and Lebanon have begun marking a 6-kilometer section of the "Blue Line" between Kibbutz Hanita and Alma ash-Shab with barrels, in a process mediated by the UN.

According to the report, the first barrel was placed on September 26, and the sides are conducting measurements in order to continue the process.

The Blue Line is the international border between Israel and Lebanon, determined following Israel's withdrawal from southern Lebanon in May 2000.

The border fence, however, follows the "Purple Line," a short distance inside Israel, allowing the Israel Defense Forces to exercise operational control over both sides of the fence.

Ban reported, however, that there has been no progress regarding the divided Israeli Arab town of Ghajar, which straddles the border, and that talks on security arrangements in the area have reached a dead end.

In addition, Ban criticized Israel in the report for failing to provide complete information on the location of cluster bombs fired during the war, and has yet to end Israel Air Force overflights in Lebanese airspace.

The report also includes the previously unreleased findings of a UN mapping expert responsible for charging the disputed Shaba Farms area.

The Second Lebanon War erupted July 12, 2006 after Hezbollah abducted Israel Defense Forces soldiers Ehud Goldwasser and Eldad Regev and killed three others in a cross-border raid.

Israel to UN: Hezbollah has tripled its land-to-sea missile arsenal (http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/918937.html)

IAF flyovers put Lebanon on high alert
JPost.com Staff
THE JERUSALEM POST
Nov. 2, 2007

The Lebanese army has raised its level of alert over the past 24 hours due to abnormal IAF activity over its territory, Israel Radio quoted Arab media as saying Friday.

According to the reports, Israeli aircraft carried out dummy runs over southern Lebanon and the Lebanese army fired at them in response.

The reports further stated that the UN had reinforced peacekeeper forces along the border and had appealed to Israel for calm.

On Thursday, it was reported that Lebanon had accused Israel of repeatedly violating the terms of UN resolution 1701 - the cease-fire agreement put in place following last summer's Second Lebanon War.

In a document sent to the UN, the Lebanese government claimed that in the past four months the IAF had flown more than 290 flyovers across the Lebanese border, while IDF ground forces had committed 52 violations on land.

Israel has admitted to the flyover violations, but said their purpose was to prevent the smuggling of weapons to Hizbullah along the Syrian border - also a violation of 1701.

"Hizbullah's weapons kill, the flights don't kill anyone," an IDF official told Army Radio on Thursday.

In addition, Lebanon says that over one million cluster bombs fired by Israel during the war were still unexploded and were endangering human life. According to the document, the Lebanese government is demanding that Israel disclose - with maps - which areas where specifically targeted with cluster bombs.

Finally, Israel was accused of not making a full withdrawal from the northern section of the village of Ghajar. In June, The Jerusalem Post reported that the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) were supposed to arrange security in the northern side of the village - which was to allow for the final withdrawal of IDF troops from the village. According to senior defense officials, it was Lebanon's refusal to sign an agreement brokered by UNIFIL that delayed the final withdrawal of IDF troops, saying that days before the deal was supposed to be signed the LAF pulled out of the agreement.

Since the cease-fire that ended last summer's war went into effect, UNIFIL and the Lebanese government have repeatedly called for an Israeli withdrawal, claiming that the IDF presence in the Alawite Muslim village was a severe violation of United Nations Security Council Resolution 1701. Some 400 families, all holders of Israeli blue identity cards, live in the northern section of the village.

IAF flyovers put Lebanon on high alert (http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?cid=1192380718469&pagename=JPost%2FJPArticle%2FPrinter)

Russia raps Saudi atomic fuel proposal for Iran
Fri Nov 2, 2007 8:35am EDT

MOSCOW (Reuters) - Russia's nuclear chief on Friday said only full nuclear powers should create centers for enriching uranium, in a swipe at a Saudi proposal for Arab states to help supply Iran with enriched uranium.

U.S.-allied Gulf Arab states are ready to set up a body to provide enriched uranium to Iran in a bid to defuse Tehran's stand-off with the West over its nuclear plan, Saudi Arabia's foreign minister told a magazine this week.

Saudi Arabia and other Gulf countries -- Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates -- have proposed creating a Middle East consortium for users of enriched uranium, Foreign Minister Prince Saud al-Faisal told the Middle East Economic Digest (MEED).

When asked about the report, Russia's nuclear energy agency chief Sergei Kiriyenko said Russia had received no official information about the proposal, RIA news agency reported.

"In our opinion there should be many such centers but it is obvious that such centers must be in countries which have the full technology for enrichment (of uranium) so that this technology doesn't spread around the world," Kiriyenko said.

Prince Saud said Iran was considering the offer. He said the enrichment plant should be in a neutral country, such as Switzerland.

In late 2005 Russia offered to create a joint centre with Iran to enrich uranium on Russian territory, but Iran sent conflicting signals about its intentions. Later, Tehran said it would produce nuclear fuel inside Iran.

The Kremlin says that Iran should not be pushed into a corner and opposes tougher sanctions but senior officials say Russia has no interest in seeing Iran get nuclear weapons.

Russia, which says there is no evidence that Tehran is trying to develop a nuclear bomb, fears that a U.S. invasion of Iran could provoke a wider conflict in the Middle East.

Russia raps Saudi atomic fuel proposal for Iran (http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSL0214924020071102)

Iran warns Europe against sanctions
Associated Press
THE JERUSALEM POST
Nov. 1, 2007

Hardline President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad on Thursday warned European countries not to follow the US lead in imposing unilateral sanctions against his country, state radio reported.

Ahmadinejad threatened unspecified retaliation by Iran if Europe followed in the footsteps of the United States, which last week announced sanctions against the Islamic state.

"If they plan to cooperate with the enemy of the Iranian nation, we cannot interpret this as a friendly behavior. We will show reaction," the radio quoted Ahmadinejad as saying.

Meanwhile, US Undersecretary of State Nicholas Burns told reporters that Washington wants a third UN Security Council sanctions resolution passed as soon as possible.

He also said the US wants the European Union to push forward with further sanctions against Iran, and urged Iran's major trading partners to cut back business with Teheran to send a strong message.

"Our view is that all of that should happen as soon as possible so that Iran gets the message that as long as it's defying the Security Council, which it currently is, and not cooperating fully with the IAEA ... then there's going to be a price to what Iran does," he said. "And that price will be increased isolation and heightened sanctions."

The US measure bans dealings with a host of companies connected to Iran's Revolutionary Guards, an elite force that has extensive business holdings in oil, construction and other sectors.

It also prohibits American companies from working with the Guards-linked Iranian companies and puts pressure on international firms and banks not to deal with them as well.

Ahmadinejad spoke after a ceremony inaugurating a petrochemical complex in the southern port of Asalouyeh, some 1,500 kilometers south of the capital, Teheran.

"You, Europeans, know well what will happen in the economic sphere if Iran takes a serious move in this matter," the Iranian leader said.

IRNA, the state official news agency, also quoted Ahmdinejad as saying: "You, Europe, need us more" - a veiled reference to business ties between Teheran and European nations.

According to official statistics Europe is Iran's largest trading partner, with over 40 percent of Iran's imports coming from European Union countries. Also, many European energy companies have been working in Iran's attractive energy market, which is the second oil producer among OPEC countries.

Ahmadinejad also spoke against a new, third round of UN sanctions, saying that "enemies of Iran should know that the era of unanimous (UN) resolutions against the Iranian nation has passed."

Iran is counting on international support from Russia and China - permanent UN Security Council members - to prevent harsher UN sanctions. The UN has imposed two rounds of limited sanctions for Iran's refusal to suspend uranium enrichment, a process which can be used for both nuclear fuel for electricity power plant and weapon.

Russia and China have resisted a third round of sanctions.

IRNA said Ahmadinejad called sanctions against his country a "ridiculous story."

Burns noted that Iran did not accept an offer last week from EU's Javier Solana to negotiate, saying Teheran had "chosen the route of sanctions."

"We hope that Iran will reconsider, suspend its enrichment program and come to negotiations with the United States and with the other countries" on the Security Council, Burns said.

"That offer is on the table but Iran continues to refuse it," he said.

Burns, in Vienna for two days, is to meet Thursday with Mohamed ElBaradei, head of the International Atomic Energy Agency.

Burns said it was important for the UN Security Council and the Vienna-based IAEA to be "tied together."

"Dr. ElBaradei has made statements in the past that would seem to indicate that sanctions might not work or that enrichment is not going to be suspended and obviously as co-authors of Security Council resolutions, we take some issue with that," Burns said.

"I think the real problem here is not Dr. ElBaradei or the United States - it's Iran," Burns said.

Iran warns Europe against sanctions (http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?cid=1192380710897&pagename=JPost%2FJPArticle%2FPrinter)

Gulf Arabs To Offer Uranium To Iran

Gulf states are willing to set up a body to provide enriched uranium to Iran, Saudi Arabia's foreign minister is reported to have said.

Prince Saud al-Faisal told the Middle East Economic Digest (MEED) the plan could defuse Tehran's stand-off with the West over its nuclear programme.

The prince was quoted as saying that Iran was considering the Gulf states' offer, but the US was not involved.

The BBC's Paul Reynolds says it is doubtful the plan will go anywhere.

It is similar to one proposed by Russia in December 2005, which led to initially positive talks between Moscow and Tehran, but in the end led nowhere, says our world affairs correspondent.

'An interesting idea'

Prince Saud said the offer came from the six states that make up the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) - Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.

"We have proposed a solution, which is to create a consortium for all users of enriched uranium in the Middle East," he was quoted as saying.

"[We will] do it in a collective manner through a consortium that will distribute according to needs, give each plant its own necessary amount, and ensure no use of this enriched uranium for atomic weapons."

He outlined the plan in an interview for the MEED during Saudi King Abdullah's state visit to London.

Prince Saud said the GCC had developed the proposal to stave off a nuclear arms race in the Gulf.

Iran says its nuclear programme is for civilian energy purposes, but the US claims Tehran is developing nuclear weapons.

Prince Saud is reported to have said: "They [the Iranians] have responded that it is an interesting idea and they will come back to us.

"The US is not involved, but I don't think it would be hostile to this, and it would resolve a main area of tension between the West and Iran."

The UK foreign office said the five permanent UN Security Council members - the US, China, Russia, France and Britain - along with Germany would meet on Friday in London to discuss the next step on Iran's nuclear programme.

Gulf Arabs To offer Uranium To Iran (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/7073699.stm)

Iran bank chief warns Ahmadinejad on money supply
Thu. 01 Nov 2007

TEHRAN (AFP) - Iran's new central bank governor has warned the government of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad over money supply growth, urging measures to prevent a further rise in inflation, the press reported Thursday.

"The government, the private sector and anyone who cares about the nation's economy should prevent the increase of liquidity," said Tahmasb Mazaheri, quoted by most moderate Iranian newspapers.

"It has an inflationary impact and it will lead to higher prices," said Mazaheri, who was appointed in September as part of a wide-ranging economic reshuffle by Ahmadinejad.

At the end of May 2007, the central bank said money supply had grown by a colossal year-on-year rate of 39.4 percent.

Mazaheri said money supply in Iran is currently running at the equivalent of 140 billion dollars, double the average for the year 2005-2006 which was 70 billion dollars.

He complained that the central bank in the past had dipped into its reserves to offer credit lines to Iranian banks -- causing liquidity to rocket higher -- and in future would be stricter with allocating loans.

"The banks should not rely on the central bank when it comes to handing out credits since last year it caused the increase in the liquidity."

Mazaheri also cautioned: "The decrease in the liquidity will not happen overnight."

The huge growth in money supply has added to fears over prices in the Islamic republic which have surged in recent weeks, especially for basic foodstuffs and services, hitting the poor hardest.

Iran's year-on-year inflation is currently 15.8 percent, according to the central bank. However, many economists dispute this and Iranian parliamentary research has estimated that inflation this year will be 22.4 percent.

Many economists in Iran have accused Ahmadinejad of stoking inflation problems by ploughing windfall revenues from high oil prices into local infrastructure projects promised on provincial visits.

But the government insists it is merely fulfilling Ahmadinejad's election promises of making ordinary people feel the benefits of oil wealth and has inflation under control.

Iran bank chief warns Ahmadinejad on money supply (http://www.iranfocus.com/modules/news/article.php?storyid=13005)

Abbas holds rare meeting with Hamas

By DALIA NAMMARI, Associated Press Writer 2 hours, 28 minutes ago

RAMALLAH, West Bank - Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas met with members of Hamas on Friday for the first time since the militant group ousted his forces and took over the Gaza Strip in June.

Abbas' aides described the meeting with four West Bank-based Hamas members as an informal gathering after Friday prayers at Abbas' presidential compound, saying it was not an official contact between the two movements. Abbas has repeatedly said he would have no contact with Hamas until it cedes power in Gaza.

But one of the Hamas men, Hussein Abu Quaik, said Abbas invited them to prayers.

"Everybody in Hamas knew about this," Abu Quaik said. "This will contribute to strengthening our relationship, and lay the basis for national unity, God willing."

Nasser al-Shaer, who was deputy prime minister in the Hamas-led unity government that broke apart after the Gaza takeover, said the group discussed "internal affairs in an open atmosphere" with Abbas, but added that the visit was "not a meeting between Hamas and the President."

For the Hamas men, Friday's meeting appeared to be an attempt to distance themselves from their movement's members in Gaza, where a Hamas leader said this week that Abbas would soon be deposed and that the Islamic group would take over the West Bank as it did Gaza.

Israeli government spokesman David Baker said Israel objected to any contacts with Hamas.

"It's Israel's position that Hamas should be sidelined and kept out of the game until it accepts the conditions placed upon it by the international community," Baker said. Those conditions are recognizing Israel, renouncing violence, and agreeing to respect past peace agreements. Hamas has refused to meet any of the conditions.

Israel has said that if Abbas renews ties with the Islamic group — which remains openly committed to Israel's destruction — it will break off peace talks with the Palestinians.

Ahmed Abdel Rahman, an Abbas adviser, denied the Hamas men had been invited by Abbas, and reiterated that Abbas would resume contacts with Hamas only if it apologized for the Gaza takeover and withdrew from security installations there.

The Hamas men came to express their "rejection" of their counterparts in Gaza, Abdel Rahman said.

"The four members expressed their commitment to the legitimacy and the authority of Abbas ... and reiterated their respect for law and order," he said.

Hamas members in the West Bank have been increasingly cowed since their movement's June takeover in Gaza. After his forces were routed in Gaza, Abbas ordered a clampdown on Hamas in the West Bank, arresting hundreds of activists, closing Hamas-linked charities and issuing an anti-money laundering decree meant to dry up donations to the group.

Abbas holds rare meeting with Hamas (http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20071102/ap_on_re_mi_ea/palestinians_hamas)

Why Turks no longer love the U.S.

By Yigal Schleifer Thu Nov 1, 4:00 AM ET

Istanbul, Turkey - The US has hailed Turkey as moderate Islamic democracy, the kind it would like to see develop elsewhere. It's a key NATO ally, with US aircraft stationed here.

Yet, as Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice arrives in Ankara Friday to defuse tensions over Kurdish rebels operating in Iraq, she faces a nation that is now the most anti-American in the world, according to one survey. In the meetings with Ms. Rice, and next Monday in Washington with President Bush, Turkey's prime minister is expected to press the US to take steps against the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) rebels in Iraq.

That might help soften attitudes here toward the US. But given the depth of anti-American feeling that has developed in just the past few years, few expect Turkish public opinion to turn quickly.

In a recent global survey by the Pew Research Center, only 9 percent of Turks held a favorable view of the United States (down from 52 percent in 2000), a figure that placed Turkey at the rock bottom of the 46 countries surveyed.

"People have become accustomed to this plot line of America being a threat to Turkish national security. This was inconceivable five years ago, but now it has come to be the prevailing view," says Ihsan Dagi, a professor of international relations at Ankara's Middle East Technical University.

That perception has been reinforced in the past two years by some of Turkey's most popular books and films which portray the US and Turkey at odds – if not at war. Turkey's all-time box office champ, 2006's "Valley of the Wolves," saw a ragtag Turkish force square off heroically against a whole division of bloodthirsty American soldiers in northern Iraq.

"Metal Storm," a bestselling political fantasy book from the year before, went even further, describing an all out war between Ankara and Washington in the not so distant future (the year 2007, to be exact), in which Turkey ultimately prevails with the help of Russia and the European Union.

Analysts say the public's mood represents a trend that has worrying implications for the future health of the ties between the two NATO allies.

"The public is really convinced that the United States is no longer a friend and ally. That is really frustrating," says Professor Dagi.

Real life events have also done little to improve America's image in Turkey. The recent passage by a US congressional committee of a resolution recognizing the mass killing of Armenians in the final days of the Ottoman Empire as a genocide – something Turkey strongly rejects – set public opinion aflame.

At the same time, the renewed attacks on Turkish forces by PKK guerrillas have only strengthened the widespread belief that Washington is doing little to get rid of the PKK in northern Iraq. Ankara has been building up its troops on the Iraqi border and threatening an invasion, something Washington strongly opposes.

"The clearest fact is that the real threats against Turkey come not from its neighbors, but from its 'allies' and each new development brings Turkey face to face with its Western allies," Ali Bulac, a columnist for the liberal-Islamic Zaman newspaper, recently wrote. "The United States ... is taking its place on the stage as the force behind the PKK."

Says Gunduz Aktan, a former Turkish ambassador who is currently a parliamentarian with the right-wing Nationalist Action Party (MHP): "The entire Turkish public opinion now is one of frustration and exasperation and a kind of acute expectation of the US to do something meaningful and concrete [on the PKK issue] and to understand the problem that we have in Turkey."

But experts say Turkey's growing anti-Americanism also has a domestic element. The success of the Islamic-rooted ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) has forced Turkey to confront the issue of how to reconcile secularism with Islam, while the renewal of PKK violence has again brought to the surface the decades-long struggle to square a strong national Turkish identity with the country's diverse ethnic identities.

"Turkey is caught right now between East and West, between Islam and secularism, between Kurdish and Turkish nationalism," says Omer Taspinar, director of the Turkey program at the Brookings Institution, a Washington think tank. "Since the cold war ended, we are living in an era where all the problems that defined the Turkish Republic in the early years are back, and Turkey is blaming the West for this."

The Rice visit and Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan's trip to the White House on Nov. 5 are part of an effort to stave off any further deterioration in US-Turkish relations. "I will openly tell him [President George Bush] that we expect concrete, immediate steps against the terrorists," Mr. Erdogan recently told parliamentarians from his party. "The problem of the PKK terrorist organization is a test of sincerity for everybody," he said. "This test carries great importance for the region and in determining the fate of our future relations."

Observers inside and outside Turkey say Ankara could play a role in easing regional tensions by dropping its objections to speaking directly with the Kurdish Regional Government in northern Iraq and its leader, Massoud Barzani.

But METU's Dagi says that without American action on the PKK front, there is little Ankara can do to defuse the public's growing dislike of the US.

"The government has somehow been taken hostage by this public mood," he says. "The first thing is to deal with this mood, and in that America has to contribute something."

Why Turks no longer love the U.S. (http://news.yahoo.com/s/csm/20071101/wl_csm/oturkus)

Bahrain accuses Iran of nuclear weapons lie
November 2, 2007
Giles Whittell in Manama

A polished silver Spitfire on the desk of Crown Prince Salman bin Hamad bin Isa al-Khalifa recalls two centuries of close and cordial ties between Britain and Bahrain.

But even its most powerful friends cannot guarantee the security of this strategic island caught in the Gulf between worsening Iranian threats and “deadly serious” talk of a US military strike.

It is not a position from which to mince words. In an interview with The Times the Crown Prince has become the first Arab leader to jettison the language of diplomacy and directly accuse Tehran of seeking nuclear weapons.

“While they don’t have the bomb yet, they are developing it, or the capability for it,” he said – the first time one of Iran’s Gulf neighbours effectively has accused it of lying about its nuclear programme.

The Crown Prince also gave a blunt warning that “the whole region” would be drawn into any military conflict and called on India, as well as Russia, to help find a diplomatic solution. “There needs to be far more done on the diplomatic front,” he said. “There’s still time to talk.”

If there is a front line in the looming confrontation between Iran and the Arab world, Bahrain is on it.

The US Fifth Fleet is based here, its main carrier battle group tasked with securing the Strait of Hormuz. The King Fahd causeway to Khobar makes Bahrain a gateway to the richest oil reserves on Earth in eastern Saudi Arabia.

The Iranian coast is ten minutes away by fighter or medium-range missile. And this week a senior Iranian general said that suicide bombers were ready to strike at targets throughout the Gulf “if necessary”. Such rhetoric will focus minds in Qatar, Riyadh and the United Arab Emirates. But its effect is especially chilling in Bahrain as the only Sunni-led country with a Shia majority that is not at war or on the brink of war.

“We are a country like Iraq and Lebanon, and we are the only one that is functioning properly,” said Sheikh Khalid al-Khalifa, the Foreign Minister.

Bahrain’s Shias – and the carnage in Iraq to the north – make the kingdom a vital experiment in sectarian coexistence. So far the Shias have repaid the Royal Family’s efforts at political reform with consistent professions of loyalty. That could change overnight in the event of an attack on Iran.

Already, large-scale demonstrations are not unusual. When the Golden Mosque in Samarra was bombed by al-Qaeda in Iraq last year, and again when Israel invaded Lebanon, “Bahrain turned yellow with Hezbollah flags”, according to one Western diplomat.

Since then a reform process that started with the release of all political prisoners in 2000 has largely stalled and leading Shia figures have complained about “systematic discrimination” by the Sunni Establishment. A scandal over alleged plans to end the Shia majority by granting fast-track citizenship to tens of thousands of foreign-born Sunnis has proved so inflammatory that an otherwise relatively free press has been banned from covering it.

The Crown Prince rejected claims of discrimination but acknowledged that the broader sectarian issue had become “so politically charged that nobody is really willing to have a rational discussion about it”.

Iran has not helped. In a newspaper editorial this summer, a close associate of President Ahmadinejad rekindled an old claim on Bahrain as Iran’s 14th province, with echoes of Saddam Hussein’s designs on Kuwait in the late 1980s that were picked up from London to Washington. The claim “touched on the legitimacy of our country”, the Foreign Minister said.

There is no suggestion – yet – of an Iranian invasion of Bahrain. But even as the kingdom throws up skyscrapers to compete with Dubai and Abu Dhabi for regional financial dominance, its security forces are on high alert for evidence of Iranian-backed “sleeper cells” that could bring them all tumbling down.

Between Bahrain’s two tallest office towers three giant wind turbines are suspended in a brave vote of confidence in a future of eco-friendly peace and prosperity. Without a diplomatic end to the Iran crisis, that confidence may soon look misplaced. But the alternatives – a military strike on Iran and a regional nuclear arms race – are too bleak to contemplate.

Bahrain accuses Iran of nuclear weapons lie (http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/middle_east/article2789056.ece)

Pakistan under martial law

ISLAMABAD, Pakistan (CNN) -- Faced with increasing violence and unrest, Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf declared a state of emergency Saturday, government sources told CNN.

Musharraf issued an order proclaiming the emergency and suspending the nation's constitution, according to a statement read on state television, and declaring martial law.

Musharraf is scheduled to address the nation at 1800 GMT (2 p.m. ET) Saturday.

The Supreme Court declared the state of emergency illegal, claiming Musharraf had no power to suspend the constitution, Chief Justice Iftikhar Mohammed Chaudhry told CNN.

A senior Pakistani official told CNN that the emergency declaration will be "short-lived," and will be followed by an interim government. Martial law is a way to restore law and order, he said.

Shortly afterward, Chaudhry was expelled as chief justice, his office told CNN. Troops came to Chaudhry's office to tell him.

The government appointed Justice Abdul Hameed Dogar as the new chief justice, according to state television.

It was the second time Chaudhry was removed from his post. His ousting by Musharraf in May prompted massive protests, and he was later reinstated.

In Islamabad, troops entered the Supreme Court and were surrounding the judges' homes, according to CNN's Syed Mohsin Naqvi.

Supreme Court sources said some judges who were not in Islamabad were not at their homes, and it was not known whether they had been arrested.

Aitzaz Ahsan, a leading Pakistani attorney and president of the Supreme Court Bar Association, was arrested at his home. A former interior minister, Ahsan represented Chaudhry the first time he was forced to leave his post.

Meanwhile, former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto, who left Pakistan last week to visit her family in Dubai, arrived in Karachi on Saturday, according to her husband, Asif Ali Zardari. She returned to Pakistan last month, despite death threats, after several years in exile.

On October 18, upon her return, at least 130 people were killed when a suicide attacker tried to assassinate her. Bhutto was lightly wounded, but escaped largely unharmed.

Bhutto has pledged to help her party succeed in January's parliamentary elections. She hopes to gain a third term as prime minister, possibly under a power-sharing deal with Musharraf.

"The people of Pakistan will not accept it," Bhutto spokesman Farhatullah Babar said of the emergency declaration. "We condemn this move."

The declaration prompted a few hundred people to take to the streets in protest, but police and paramilitary groups blocked Islamabad's main roads and dispersed the crowds.

Earlier, private networks had reported the declaration was imminent as top officials huddled at Musharraf's residence in Rawalpindi. Shortly after that report, most media channels went off the air in an apparent blackout, although some flickered off and on.

U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, who is in Turkey for a conference with Iraq and neighboring nations, told CNN's Zain Verjee that anything that diverts Pakistan from the path to free and fair elections is "highly regrettable."

The United States, Rice said, doesn't support any extra-constitutional measures taken by Musharraf, and urged restraint so violence can be avoided. Nothing should jeopardize the transition to democracy, she said.

"President Musharraf has stated repeatedly that he will step down as chief of army staff before retaking the presidential oath of office and has promised to hold elections by January 15th," said State Department spokesman Sean McCormack. "We expect him to uphold these commitments and urge him to do so immediately."

In Britain, Foreign Secretary David Miliband said in a statement, "We recognize the threat to peace and security faced by the country, but its future rests on harnessing the power of democracy and the rule of law to achieve the goals of stability, development and countering terrorism. I am gravely concerned by the measures adopted today, which will take Pakistan further from these goals."

The declaration could delay approaching parliamentary elections, according to CNN's Nic Robertson. It also could provide Musharraf with a reason to continue serving as the nation's military chief.

The nation's political atmosphere has been tense for months, with Pakistani leaders in August considering a state of emergency because of the growing security threats in the country's lawless tribal regions. But Musharraf, influenced in part by Rice, held off on the move.

Since that time, Musharraf has faced a flurry of criticism from the opposition, who demanded he abandon his military position before becoming eligible to seek a third presidential term. Musharraf garnered a vast majority of votes in presidential elections last month; however, those results have not been certified by the nation's high court.

For weeks, the country has been coasting in a state of political limbo while the Supreme Court works to tackle legal challenges filed by the opposition that call into question Musharraf's eligibility to hold office. Some have speculated that a declaration of emergency is tied to rumors the court is planning to rule against Musharraf.

Musharraf, who led the 1999 coup as Pakistan's army chief, has seen his power erode since the failed effort to oust Chaudhry. His administration is also struggling to contain a surge in Islamic militancy.

Pakistan under martial law (http://www.cnn.com/2007/WORLD/asiapcf/11/03/pakistan.emergency/index.html)

Darkness is falling in Vladimir Putin's Russia

By Con Coughlin
Last Updated: 3:07am GMT 03/11/2007

Soaring oil prices have made the country a power again - but its ruler's grip on politics, the media and economy has sinister implications for democracy.

Standing in the shadow of the Lubyanka, the notorious former KGB headquarters in central Moscow, a small group of elderly women are gathered around a large slab of granite that commemorates one of the darkest episodes in Russia's history.

The slab was taken from one of the Solovetsky punishment camps near Archangel on the White Sea, which formed what the Russian writer Alexander Solzhenitsyn described as the Gulag Archipelago, where the victims of Stalin's terror were sent to their deaths in their tens of thousands.

It has been placed outside the Lubyanka as a memorial to the millions of victims of state persecution and repression during the Soviet era. A neighbouring monument to Feliks Dzerzhinsky, the Bolshevik founder of the KGB, was unceremoniously torn down by an angry crowd of Muscovites shortly after the collapse of the Soviet Union in the 1990s: all that now remains is a well-cut grass mound.

Wearing faded headscarves and threadbare coats to protect themselves from the bitter cold, the frail old ladies - some of them in their nineties - quietly intone their prayers for the dead, before placing small, neatly bound clusters of flowers around the granite slab.

"I'm still trying to find out what really happened to my grandfather," says Lyudmila, an 82-year-old grandmother who has travelled 500 miles to Moscow to mark Russia's official Memorial Day for Political Prisoners.

"They wanted him to work for the KGB, but when he refused they sent him off to the Gulags. He died of starvation, but apart from that we know very little."

Russian experts estimate that seven million people perished in the Gulags, and ordinary families are still struggling to come to terms with the horrors they suffered under the Soviet era.

Even Russian president Vladimir Putin, a former senior KGB officer, appears to understand the necessity of acknowledging the appalling repression of the Soviet era. Later in the day he would make his first visit to a memorial and church built at a site on the outskirts of Moscow where thousands of people were executed by firing squad.

This year is the 70th anniversary of Stalin's Great Terror. It is also an election year in Moscow, and ever-eager to consolidate his popularity (Putin has an 80 per cent approval rating), the Russian leader paid a fulsome tribute to the millions of victims.

"As a rule these were people with their own opinions," said Putin. "These were people who were not afraid to speak their mind. They were the most capable people. They were the pride of the nation. And, of course, over many years we still remember this tragedy. We need to do a great deal to ensure that this is never forgotten."

The implication, of course, was that nothing like this could happen in Putin's Russia, a truly democratic state where the rule of law is supreme.

Well, tell that to Mikhail Khordokovsky, the former oil tycoon who only six years ago had a personal fortune worth an estimated $10 billion (£4.8 billion). But then he made the cardinal error of publicly criticising Putin's decidedly autocratic style of government.

He now spends his days breaking rocks at a remote Siberian penal colony, where he is halfway through an eight-year jail term on what many of his supporters believe are politically motivated fraud charges.

The notion that Russia under Putin could return to the worst excesses of Comrade Stalin is, of course, far-fetched.

For a start, the Communist ideology that inspired the Bolsheviks to launch their class war against the governing and professional classes lies buried under the rubble of the Iron Curtain, so much so that the Communists will hardly feature in next month's parliamentary elections, which will in turn set the tone for next year's presidential election.

These days, Russian politics is all about the exercise of raw power and the accumulation of vast wealth. For some, like the closely-knit group of former KGB officers around Putin - the siloviki - it is possible to acquire both.

Putin is claimed by some to have a personal fortune in offshore bank accounts in Liechtenstein and Luxembourg, while establishing an authoritarian regime that has established a stranglehold over all the key levers of power.

"To talk about democracy in Russia today is utterly ridiculous," explains Stanislav Belkovsky, a leading Kremlinologist whose new book, Putin's Business, provides a detailed breakdown of the Russian president's private wealth.

"Putin is one of the wealthiest men in Europe because his business partners are running a network of companies while he runs Russia. So many people want to get their hands on the country's wealth that they are prepared to do anything not to upset Putin. It's a very effective control mechanism."

The recent turnaround in the country's economic fortunes is almost entirely to do with spiralling oil prices, which have recently risen above $90 a barrel over fears that America is shaping up for a military confrontation with Iran, a conflict Russia is anxious to avoid. But if Moscow is unhappy with the Bush administration's warlike disposition, it is nevertheless happy to reap the riches brought by the rocketing price of oil.

It might seem hard to believe now, but when Putin came to power eight years ago, Russia was an economic basket case. Boris Yeltsin's chaotic presidency had left the country virtually bankrupt.

The debt default of 1998 had resulted in millions of Russians losing their jobs and savings, and pensioners, servicemen, teachers and scientists all went unpaid. This was a period when it was not uncommon to find that the bellhop at one of Moscow's new, Western-financed hotels had a PhD in nuclear physics.

Today, Russia has the world's third-largest currency reserves, standing at £200 billion, mainly as a result of Putin's brutal repossession of the country's main energy companies from the oligarchs who had bought them cheaply during the 1990s and made themselves vast personal fortunes.

That wealth is channelled into propping up Putin's regime, and while beyond Moscow there are still large swathes of the country where poverty is rife and the population survives on a subsistence diet, in the capital it is clear that life for Putin's supporters has never been better.

Moscow must rate as the world capital for conspicuous consumption. It is said there are more Bentleys per capita than anywhere else in the world, and boutique stores selling leading luxury brands, from Cartier to Chanel, struggle to meet the demand generated by the city's new super-rich.

Nor has the new oil wealth only been concentrated in the hands of the chosen few. There has been a tenfold increase in the national budget in the past seven years, and there is a palpable sense of prosperity and self-confidence running through the rapidly emerging professional classes.

But even if the economic feel-good factor is starting to trickle down from Putin's elite to other sectors of society, the Russian people have paid a heavy price for their new-found prosperity, both in terms of the erosion of their political rights and the effective suspension of the rule of law.

The parliamentary elections will take place on December 2, but the result is a foregone conclusion. Putin's United Russia party will win 80 per cent of the vote and form the a government for the next four years. It will then be for them to decide whether Putin should change the constitution to allow him to stand for a third term in next spring's presidential elections.

"It's a bit like going to a football match, and when you arrive at the stadium the score has already been decided without the teams even having to take to the pitch," explains Grigory Yavlinsky, the leader of Yabloko (Apple), one of the few truly independent political parties still participating in the election campaign.

cont'd next post

"Putin has the system so closely controlled that he is able to arrange the result of a so-called democratic election weeks before that election has even taken place."

Yavlinsky knows all about Putin's political skills, having stood against him in the last presidential election four years ago. Yavlinsky's small grass-roots organisation was no match for Putin's KGB organisational skills. The president's supporters ensured that Yavlinsky's party won less than five per cent of the national vote, which meant that it could not even be represented in the Duma.

"It was very strange how we would win thousands of votes in the provinces, but when they came to be counted in Moscow they had somehow been reduced to just a few hundred," says Yavlinsky. "No wonder no one stands a chance of defeating Putin in the coming elections."

Electoral fraud is allegedly just one of many ways the United Russia party keeps its stranglehold over the state. On election day there are an estimated 98,000 polling booths, and even though some are monitored by independent observers, it is impossible to keep a check on all the different votes, which are eventually sent to Moscow, where the electoral commission, supervised by political appointees, announces the result.

Another effective control mechanism is that the Kremlin dictates access to state funding for political parties, and also how much airtime they have on state-controlled television and coverage in the main state-controlled newspapers.

In order to get funds and media exposure, a party must give the Kremlin a firm assurance that it will not discuss controversial issues, such as state corruption, or the way the ruling elite uses the courts to intimidate its opponents. Once that assurance is forthcoming, the party will receive money for its campaign and its candidates will be allowed to appear on television.

But even then opposition parties are only allowed on television for the month-long election campaign. For the rest of the time, the Kremlin keeps a tight rein on who gets on television, with producers being given regularly updated lists of who can appear.

The result is that on most nights, the main news topic is a eulogistic account of Putin's latest activities, whether that be posing semi-naked on a fishing expedition or travelling to Teheran to lecture the Americans on the futility of launching military action against Iran. With coverage like this, it is hardly surprising that Putin's approval rating rarely dips below the 80 per cent mark.

As a former KGB officer under the Soviet system, Putin understands the value of propaganda in indoctrinating the populace, and the stranglehold he has over the media is equal to the control he exercises over the economy. Economic prosperity and rigorous media control are a potent mix when it comes to keeping a firm grip on power, and Putin has demonstrated an aptitude for maintaining both.

There is, though, a dark underbelly to this resurgent Russian bear which, despite the formidable powers at its disposal, remains highly sensitive to criticism, whether from home or abroad.

The BBC's Russian FM service recently disappeared from the airwaves after it ran a series of interviews with disaffected Russians who dared to voice their criticism's of Putin's Russia. And far worse fates have befallen those, such as the journalist Anna Politkovskaya, who have managed to evade the stranglehold the government has on media outlets to publish highly critical articles on the regime's conduct.

It is just over a year since Politkovskaya was found dead at the bottom of a Moscow lift shaft with three bullets pumped into her skull. The official investigation into her death - carried out by yet another Putin associate - has produced an interesting insight into how the regime's critics are silenced.

Politkovskaya was as much a critic of Putin's authoritarianism as she was of Moscow's disastrous involvement in Chechnya. Shortly before her death, she wrote of his regime: "The shroud of darkness from which we spent several Soviet decades trying to free ourselves is enveloping us again."

But it was her trenchant criticism of the conduct of Moscow's military campaign in Chechnya that provoked most controversy, and it now seems likely that a group of Chechen warlords loyal to the Kremlin contracted a gang of Moscow street criminals to murder her.

The poisoning of Alexander Litvinenko in London last year was seen by many as another example of Moscow's heavy-handed response to high-profile critics. But the state repression is more reminiscent of the paranoia that characterised the Brezhnev era in the 1970s, when refuseniks were carted off to lunatic asylums, rather than the widespread killing during Stalin's Great Terror.

Indeed, there have recently been reports that some prominent critics of the regime have also found themselves being committed to the state's psychiatric care, although, to date, these have been rare instances and there is no evidence to suggest the practice is widespread.

What is not in any doubt, however, is that Putin is the undisputed master of all he surveys in Russia. The big question now is whether he can summon the courage to give up all the power he has so carefully accumulated over the past eight years.

Under the current constitution, Putin is obliged to leave office next spring after two full presidential terms. It has been suggested that he might be prepared to take the more junior position of prime minister in the Russian parliament, so long as he can manoeuvre one his key allies into the presidency.

Alternatively, he could get himself appointed to the energy giant Gazprom, and add to the considerable fortune he has accumulated as president.

But for these scenarios to work, Putin would ultimately have to answer to the new Russian president - and Putin has not been good at taking orders since he worked at the KGB.

Which is why most Russians believe that, once United Russia has secured its predicted two thirds parliamentary majority, it will move quickly to amend the constitution to allow their president to serve a third term. So far as Putin is concerned, when it comes to being President of Russia, you can't get enough of a good thing.

Darkness is falling in Vladimir Putin's Russia (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2007/11/03/wputin103.xml)

Putin says Russia threatened by "Unipolar World"
Sun Nov 4, 2007 3:19pm EST

By Chris Baldwin

MOSCOW (Reuters) - On a holiday created to unite his country, Russian President Vladimir Putin issued a veiled warning that foreigners were seeking to split up the vast country and plunder its resource wealth.

"Some people are constantly insisting on the necessity to divide up our country and are trying to spread this theory," Putin told military cadets during a speech in Moscow on Sunday, Russian news agencies reported.

"There are those who would like to build a unipolar world, who would themselves like to rule all of humanity," Putin said, a phrase he has used over the past seven years of his administration to mean the United States.

Putin, who has a black belt in Judo, the Japanese martial art that stresses calm, emotionless and powerful shifts of an opponent's weight and balance against himself, also said Russia was well respected by admirers as a stabilizing world factor.

"Some minor countries, under pressure from larger ones, are having a hard time figuring out how to defend their own interests. And Russia has played and will continue to play a positive, stabilizing role in the world," he said.

NATIONAL UNITY

Sunday was National Unity Day, an Autumn holiday created by Putin's administration three years ago to replace October Revolution Day, formerly the most patriotic celebration in the Soviet Union, when tanks, missiles and troops filled Red Square.

Unity Day, according to Putin's own explanation of the holiday, is meant to show the power of the Russian people as a unified whole, rising up to meet the challenges of economic development and national defense.

A Levada Centre poll of adult Russians showed only a quarter of adults could correctly identify why they have Monday off from work.

A further 48 per cent had no idea whatsoever, while the remaining poll participants confused the holiday with the National Day of Reconciliation or Halloween.

To end this national confusion, this year's National Unity Day celebrations were heavily advertised on government television channels, and thousands of people across the country staged rallies, meetings and marches to show their patriotism.

"Some think we have too much resource wealth and should divide it," Putin told the cadets.

"They themselves have no wish to share their own riches, and we should take that into account."

Putin says Russia threatened by "Unipolar World" (http://www.reuters.com/article/worldNews/idUSL0449803320071104?feedType=RSS&feedName=worldNews&rpc=22&sp=true)

Hezbollah stages maneuvers

By SAM F. GHATTAS, Associated Press Writer Mon Nov 5, 6:40 AM ET

BEIRUT, Lebanon - Thousands of Hezbollah guerrillas staged secret military maneuvers without weapons or uniforms near Israel's border in southern Lebanon, a pro-Hezbollah Lebanese newspaper reported Monday. The Lebanese government downplayed the report as probably just a simulation.

Al-Akhbar, a pro-Hezbollah newspaper, said Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah personally supervised the maneuvers, which it reported were carried out in the last three days and were the biggest ever staged on Israel's border by the Shiite Muslim militant group.

Monday's report marked the first time Hezbollah, with its highly secretive military wing, revealed such exercises through a newspaper. The maneuvers, if confirmed, could pose a major challenge to a U.N.-brokered cease-fire that ended last year's war with the Jewish state.

Hezbollah officials declined to comment. However, a Hezbollah legislator, Hassan Fadlallah, said it was only "natural" that the group be fully ready to confront any possible Israeli attack.

"Clearly, we will not let Israel carry out aggression against Lebanon and we sit still," he told Lebanese Broadcasting Corp. television, referring to the increased Israeli military flights over southern Lebanon in recent days.

Prime Minister Fuad Saniora, speaking to AP Television News at government headquarters, said authorities checked with military and police units as well as U.N. peacekeepers and "they confirmed nothing on the ground really happened."

"It was, let's say, a simulation probably, in an operation room, on the desk, probably they did such a thing," he said. "This has been confirmed by all the sources."

He noted there was no statement issued by Hezbollah confirming the reported maneuvers.

The alleged maneuvers came a few days after Israel held major military exercises in the north of the country near the Lebanese border. The Israeli action was interpreted by some Lebanese media as preparation by the Jewish state for a possible new war with Hezbollah.

Hezbollah's actions could be an attempt to counter the Israeli exercises.

Al-Akhbar said the Hezbollah maneuvers were carried out south of the Litani River in southern Lebanon and aimed at "deterring the enemy from carrying out any adventure in Lebanon." The zone has been controlled by a U.N. peacekeeping force and the Lebanese army since last year's war.

"A state of Israeli alertness is countered by extraordinary movement by the resistance (Hezbollah)," read a front-page headline Monday in As-Safir, another newspaper close to Hezbollah. It quoted witnesses in southern Lebanon as saying they observed "unusual movement" by Hezbollah for the first time since last year's war, but gave no further details.

There was no immediate comment from officials of the U.N. peacekeeping force, which has 13,500 soldiers who patrol a buffer zone near the border with Israel with the help of 15,000 Lebanese troops.

But As-Safir quoted Maj. Gen. Claudio Graziano, the commander of the U.N. Interim Force in Lebanon as warning Lebanese leaders he met in Beirut last week that the tension in the south and a deepening political crisis in the country might prompt European countries "to withdraw from UNIFIL within less than four months."

Italy, France, Spain and Germany form the bulk of the reinforced U.N. force that deployed in southern Lebanon after last year's war.

Commenting on the reported Hezbollah maneuvers, a Lebanese security official, speaking on customary condition of anonymity in line with government regulations, said Lebanese forces in south Lebanon "did not register any armed presence south of the Litani."

The official said troops are under orders to prevent any armed presence in accordance with a U.N. Security Council resolution that ended last year's fighting, but pointed out "that civilians have the right to freely move in their villages" and if they do not carry weapons, they are not breaking the law.

Al-Akhbar said Hezbollah's maneuvers were carried out all along the border with Israel "in extreme secrecy without any show of arms."

The newspaper quoted Nasrallah as telling the participants that the maneuvers were intended "for foe and friend to make them understand that the resistance (Hezbollah) is fully ready to confront any kinds of Israeli threats."

Nasrallah said last week his guerrilla group has grown stronger since last summer's war as Israel has weakened. He said his guerrillas did not want war but "will not allow anyone to attack our villages, people and country."

The Lebanese army command has in the last few days issued statements noting increased Israeli overflights in southern Lebanon in violation of the cease-fire resolution.

Since the fighting with Israel ended, Nasrallah has boasted that his guerrillas have replenished their rocket arsenal and were ready to fight Israel if attacked. The Hezbollah leader has said his group possesses more than 33,000 rockets.

Last week, U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon issued a new report that said Israel claims that Hezbollah has rearmed with new long-range rockets capable of hitting Tel Aviv. Ban's report said Israel claims Hezbollah has tripled its shore-to-sea C-802 missiles and has established an air defense unit armed with ground-to-air missiles.

Hezbollah stages maneuvers (http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20071105/ap_on_re_mi_ea/lebanon_hezbollah;_ylt=AvCDvKS6l5aWFu5x9czoLigLewgF)

Brothers and Sisters,

Israel has been punished greatly and suffered much because of their rejection of CHRIST about 2,000 years ago. However, their worst punishment and suffering is yet to come at GOD'S Appointed Time. This does not mean that GOD has stopped loving HIS chosen people. GOD will restore Israel at HIS Appointed time.

As Christians, we MUST stand and pray for Israel! Those who help and support Israel will be blessed. Those who harm or come against Israel will be damned. This is a very confusing subject for many people, including many Christians. The Bible tells us that GOD will punish Israel, so maybe we should help GOD. NO! - this is wrong! This is GOD'S business - not ours. Our business is to know that Israel belongs to GOD - the people and the land. We belong to GOD also - only because of HIS Matchless Love, Grace, and GIFT to us. As Christians, we should know that GOD has already rescued us from the curse of sin and death. We have a different set of promises than Israel, and we should all give thanks that JESUS CHRIST has already suffered the punishment we deserved in HIS Own Body on the CROSS. Israel also belongs to GOD, and GOD has promised that HE will rescue and restore Israel at HIS Appointed time. We MUST know the difference between ISRAEL and the CHURCH WHICH IS THE BODY OF CHRIST when we study GOD'S WORD or we will be terribly confused. However, both are possessions of GOD.

As Christians, our thoughts about Israel should be very simple. We should love and support them in any way that we can. That would include dying in the attempt to help Israel if we feel called to do so. Everything should simply be a matter of prayer, and we should never harbor any thoughts of harm or hate against Israel. We don't have to understand all of the details. The Promises of GOD are more than enough.

Quote

BEIRUT, Lebanon - Thousands of Hezbollah guerrillas staged secret military maneuvers without weapons or uniforms near Israel's border in southern Lebanon, a pro-Hezbollah Lebanese newspaper reported Monday. The Lebanese government downplayed the report as probably just a simulation.

Al-Akhbar, a pro-Hezbollah newspaper, said Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah personally supervised the maneuvers, which it reported were carried out in the last three days and were the biggest ever staged on Israel's border by the Shiite Muslim militant group.

Brothers and Sisters, this will be real one day, and it will be in greater and greater numbers. Eventually, the forces coming against Israel will be overwhelming, and those remaining will fear total annihilation from the face of the earth. They will cry out finally to their great KING and MESSIAH, and HE will hear them. The KING OF KINGS has not forgotten them, and HE HIMSELF will come to RESCUE them. HE is and always has been their Anointed KING and MESSIAH! HE set Israel aside and turned HIS FACE away from Israel because of disobedience and rejection. BUT, HIS Eternal Promises to Israel were NOT canceled. GOD will keep HIS Promises to Israel most perfectly at HIS Appointed Time.

Brothers and Sisters, Isaiah is also a beautiful Bible Study for this day and age. In fact, there are many beautiful portions of the Bible that tell us what is about to happen and why. Christians - remember that our hopes and Promises are not of this world.

Love In Christ,
Tom

Isaiah 59:20-21 NASB
"A Redeemer will come to Zion, And to those who turn from transgression in Jacob," declares the LORD. "As for Me, this is My covenant with them," says the LORD: "My Spirit which is upon you, and My words which I have put in your mouth shall not depart from your mouth, nor from the mouth of your offspring, nor from the mouth of your offspring's offspring," says the LORD, "from now and forever."

Turkey seeks right to build monument in J'lem's Old City
By Nadav Shragai, Haaretz Correspondent
tags: Turkey, Israel, Temple Mount

Turkey would like to build a monument to those who died fighting for the Ottoman Empire at the foot of the Temple Mount's eastern wall, not far from the Golden Gate.

The proposal, which the Prime Minister's Office supports, was recently submitted to the Jerusalem Municipality for approval. The Waqf, or Islamic religious trust, which controls the Temple Mount, has already given Turkey land for the monument, which would be about three meters high and fly a Turkish flag.

While the municipality has not yet discussed the proposal, rightist councilmen have already expressed opposition. Councilman Yair Gabbay (National Religious Party) has asked the city's legal adviser to nix the project on the grounds that according to the city's master plan, all construction is forbidden within 70 meters of the Temple Mount. The plot the Waqf has allocated to Turkey is a mere five meters from the mount.

Sources in the Jerusalem Municipality said that the proposal would be examined according to the usual legal criteria, but the stance of the Prime Minister's Office and the diplomatic sensitivities entailed would be taken into consideration.

Turkey controlled this area until 1917, when it was ousted by the British during World War I. Today, it has good relations with Israel, but during the war, it deported many Jews because a Jewish group known as Nili had been providing intelligence to the British.

The last time a similar issue arose was immediately after the 1967 Six-Day War, when the Waqf and Arab residents of East Jerusalem sought permission to erect several monuments to soldiers of the Jordanian Legion who were killed in the battles for Jerusalem. Those proposals aroused fierce public debate, but eventually a compromise was reached, under which one central monument for all the battles was erected.

Turkey seeks right to build monument in J'lem's Old City (http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/919865.html)

November 6, 2007. Issue 3779. Page 2.
Putin Warns Russia Has Enemies
By Anna Smolchenko
Staff Writer

President Vladimir Putin said Sunday that there were people in the world who wanted to split up Russia and, in a thinly veiled reference to the United States, were attempting "to rule over mankind."

Speaking to pro-Kremlin youth groups on People's Unity Day, Putin said Russia would continue to play an active role in world affairs and defend smaller nations but that some forces outside the country sought to plunder its wealth.

"There are people who have just lost it," Putin told members of the Nashi and Young Guard groups, as well as military cadets, apologizing for using the slang phrase. "Some say we have too many natural riches, that they have to be split up."

"They, themselves, have no wish to share their own, by the way," Putin added.

The reference to natural riches echoed comments Putin made in his annual call-in show in mid-October, when he labeled such notions "political erotica."

In one of the questions posed to Putin, an engineer from Siberia attributed the comment to former U.S. Secretary of State Madeleine Albright.

On Sunday, Putin reiterated criticism of the United States, which he has regularly accused of trying to build a unipolar world.

"That has yet to happen in the planet's history and I don't think it ever will," Putin said in remarks posted on the Kremlin web site.

He said, conversely, that the majority of the world thought positively of Russia and that "some even do so with hope, as they see Russia as a defender of their interests."

Putin's comments came after youth groups laid wreathes at the monument on Red Square to Prince Dmitry Pozharsky and Kuzma Minin, who helped defeat Polish and Lithuanian forces in Moscow in 1612. People's Unity Day was instituted as a national holiday to mark the event in 2005, replacing the Nov. 7 holiday commemorating the Bolshevik Revolution.

The youth groups and cadets then attended a Kremlin reception. At the reception, Putin praised a new fund he established in June to promote Russian language and culture abroad and Russians involved in doing such work.

"It is comforting that they have new opportunities to expand and reinforce ties with Russia.

Putin also awarded the Pushkin Medal for promoting Russian culture abroad to a number of foreign academics. Past recipients of the award include Thomas Graham, a former senior official in the administration of U.S. President George W. Bush.

Putin Warns Russia Has Enemies (http://www.themoscowtimes.com/stories/2007/11/06/017.html)

Russian Nationalists March in Moscow

By MANSUR MIROVALEV – 1 day ago

MOSCOW (AP) — A white supremacist from Texas lifted his black cowboy hat into the air as he stepped forward to address thousands of Russian nationalists at a rally Sunday in Moscow.

"I'm taking my hat off as a sign of respect for your strong identity in ethnicity, nation and race," said Preston Wiginton, 43, exposing his close-cropped head to a freezing drizzle.

"Glory to Russia," he said in broken Russian, as the crowd of mostly young Russian men raised their right hands in a Nazi salute and chanted "white power!" in English.

About 5,000 nationalists turned out for the Russian March, held for the third year on National Unity Day, a holiday the Kremlin created in 2005 to replace the traditional Nov. 7 celebration of the 1917 Bolshevik rise to power.

The Kremlin has tried to give the holiday historical significance by tying it to the 1612 expulsion of Polish and Cossack troops who briefly seized Moscow at a time of political disarray.

But extreme nationalists have seized on the holiday, reflecting a rise in xenophobia. More than 50 people have been killed and 400 injured in ethnically motivated attacks this year, according to the Sova rights center.

Rights activists say the extreme nationalist sentiments are a natural outgrowth of the Kremlin's attempts to rebuild a strong Russian state.

President Vladimir Putin, who celebrated Sunday's holiday by laying flowers at the monument to Moscow's 17th century liberators, told the military cadets and pro-Kremlin youth group members who accompanied him that there are people in the world seeking to split Russia and divide up its natural resource wealth.

"Some believe that we are too lucky to possess so much natural wealth, which they say must be divided," Putin said, speaking near the monument on Red Square. "These people have lost their mind," he added with a smile.

Pro-Kremlin youth groups and the liberal Yabloko party also held rallies Sunday, in part to counter the nationalist march.

"This holiday is a gift for the most reactionary and dangerous group — the nationalists," Yabloko deputy chairman Sergei Mitrokhin told a crowd of about 1,500.

Thousands of pro-Kremlin youth activists marched through central Moscow and gathered near Red Square to sew together a "blanket of peace," symbolizing harmony among Russia's numerous ethnic groups.

The nationalists, who were kept away from the city center, marched along an embankment of the Moscow River to a small square, waving banners that read "Russians, stand up," "Russian order or war," and "Tolerance is AIDS."

What united the marchers was their opposition to nonwhite migrants from the Caucasus and Central Asia.

"Russia will be white," said Alexander Belov, leader of the Movement Against Illegal Migration. His last name, based on the Russian word for "white," is a nom de guerre.

"Our ultimate goal is our race and nation. Nation above all," he said, rephrasing the Nazi slogan "Germany above all."

A top immigration official down played the significance of the Russian Marches.

"This is just an outbreak of national identity feelings, which is noticeable worldwide, and it has affected Russia too," said Vyacheslav Postavnin, deputy director of the Federal Migration Service, the Interfax news agency reported.

In the first Russian March in 2005, thousands marched through central Moscow, some shouting "Heil Hitler." The march horrified many Muscovites, and the following year it was blocked by police.

"The first Russian March was unexpected good luck, the second one was about overcoming the resistance of the authorities, and the third one is already a new Russian tradition," said Konstantin Krylov of the nationalist Russian Social Movement.

City authorities approved Sunday's march but ordered it held on the river embankment away from the city center. Hundreds of police lined the route.

Nationalist marches also were held in other Russian cities.

In St. Petersburg, about 500 people rallied at Revolution Square in front of the Winter Palace. Police detained 12 men who attempted to break into a Chinese restaurant, the Regnum news agency reported.

Russian Nationalists March in Moscow (http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5gWOiN2rjCIYv2yQ7SXPp2YhxLMSAD8SN4H1G1)

Iran Proposes International Security Force to Take Over in Iraq

Voices of Iraq. Posted November 5, 2007.

An Iranian proposal for troops from Iran, Syria and other Arab states to replace U.S. forces in Iraq was swiftly rejected and ridiculed yesterday at a high-level gathering of Iraq's neighbors and world powers, the U.S. newspaper The Washington Times said in a report on Sunday.

"As top diplomats from two dozen countries and international organizations took turns to discuss how to improve Iraq's security, Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki suggested that a coalition from neighboring Arab states take over from U.S. forces, conference participants said."

"The Iranian delegation distinguished itself again today with the most extraordinary proposal," said David Satterfield, the State Department's top coordinator on Iraq, who accompanied U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice at the Istanbul meeting.

Ryan C. Crocker, the U.S. ambassador to Iraq, who also attended the session, said "Mr. Mottaki specifically identified Iran and Syria as potential troop contributors." Crocker called the Iranian idea a "fantasy" that should not be "dignified" with a response.

Saudi Foreign Minister Saud al-Faisal offered the most forceful rejection of Mottaki's proposal, saying it would do nothing to stabilize Iraq, diplomats said. They noted that no one voiced support for the idea, and it was not clear whether it had at least Syria's backing.

Rice met with Syrian Foreign Minister Walid Moallem, but they spent most of their time discussing the upcoming presidential election in Lebanon, Satterfield said. He added that Rice warned Damascus to refrain from interfering in the vote.

Crocker said he expects to hold more talks on Iraq's security with Iranian diplomats in Baghdad in the near future, following two unproductive rounds earlier this year.

On the sidelines of yesterday's conference, Rice also acted as a mediator between Iraq and Turkey in search of a way to prevent attacks by the Kurdistan Workers' Party, or PKK, against Turkey.

During a three-way meeting, Iraqi Foreign Minister Hoshyar Zebari, a Kurd, promised "a number of visible measures implemented on the ground to show our seriousness" about hunting down and arresting PKK leaders.

He did not rule out joint military action with Turkey against the PKK.

Satterfield said the United States wants the Iraqi authorities and the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) in northern Iraq to "block" the movement of goods, supplies and people, as well as to disrupt logistics benefiting the PKK.

"They should apprehend PKK figures, deny any facilities and close all offices," he said.

In northern Iraq, a Kurdish official was quoted by wire reports as saying that the KRG had shut down the offices of the Kurdistan Democratic Solution Party, which sympathizes with the PKK.

Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki met in Istanbul with Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who is scheduled to visit President Bush at the White House on Monday.

"The prime minister renewed the willingness of the Iraqi government to take steps to isolate the terrorist PKK, prevent any help reaching its members, chase and arrest them, and put them in front of the Iraqi judiciary because of their terrorist activities," Maliki's office said.

The Turkish parliament voted last week to authorize Turkish troops to cross the border into northern Iraq to root out an estimated 3,000 PKK guerrillas. Nearly 40,000 Turks have been killed since the PKK took up its armed struggle for Kurdish self-rule in southeast Turkey in 1984.

Iran Proposes International Security Force to Take Over in Iraq (http://www.alternet.org/waroniraq/66993/)

Israel on offensive against IAEA over Iran

9 hours ago

JERUSALEM (AFP) — Campaigning for tougher sanctions on Tehran, Israel went on the offensive on Tuesday against the UN nuclear watchdog, accusing its chief Mohammed ElBaradei of playing into Iran's hands over its atomic drive.

The campaign comes with the International Atomic Energy Agency poised to publish a new report on Iran's nuclear ambitions, to serve as a key part of further discussions at the United Nations on whether to impose a third round of sanctions on Tehran.

"Unfortunately there are foreign officials playing the Iranians' game by contributing to the Iranian strategy of foot-dragging," Israeli foreign ministry spokesman Mark Regev told AFP.

"From this point of view the International (Atomic Energy) Agency and its leadership are guilty," Regev added.

"One could ask whether the agency agreed to fulfil the role the Iranians want it to play, to allow Tehran to implement its strategy," he said.

Permanent members Britain, China, France, Russia and the United States, plus Germany, are backing a third UN Security Council resolution and vote on Iran, unless upcoming IAEA and EU reports show "a positive outcome."

But China and Russia, which could in theory veto further sanctions, have yet to call publicly for more punishment against the Islamic republic.

"The ayatollahs hope the pace of diplomatic discussions under way is as slow as possible so they (the Iranians) can continue with their nuclear armaments programme at a faster pace," said Regev.

Israel and its chief ally the United States charge that Tehran is using its civilian nuclear programme as a cover to develop atomic weapons -- claims that Tehran flatly denies.

Senior Israeli army intelligence officer Yossi Beidetz told parliament's foreign affairs and defence ministry that Iran could acquire the bomb by 2009.

"Assuming Iran is not faced with difficulties, the most severe scenario is that Iran could have a nuclear bomb by the end of 2009," Beidetz was quoted by committee members as saying.

Israel, which belongs to the IAEA but has not signed the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, is widely considered to be the Middle East's sole -- if undeclared -- nuclear-armed nation.

It considers Iran its chief enemy after repeated statements by President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad that the Jewish state should be wiped off the map.

Last month, on a tour of UN Security Council members to push for tougher sanctions against Iran, Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert also criticised the IAEA chief.

"If ElBaradei thinks that an Iranian bomb in three years time does not bother him, it certainly worries me, even extremely," Olmert said in France.

"It would be better if ElBaradei made an effort to prevent them from obtaining a bomb."

ElBaradei said in an interview with France's Le Monde newspaper that Iran would need "between three and eight years" to develop a nuclear bomb and that there were was no immediate threat.

"I want to get people away from the idea that Iran represents a clear and present danger and that we're now facing the decision whether to bombard Iran or let them have the bomb. We're not in that situation at all," he said.

Gerald Steinberg, political science professor at Bar Ilan University in Tel Aviv, suggested that ElBaradei could either be anti-American or trying to avoid an attack on Iran at any price.

"What is certainly the case is that there is an increasingly flagrant contradiction between IAEA technical reports clearly showing Iran's intentions to build nuclear weapons and the mollifying conclusions of ElBaradei," he said.

In 1981, Israel bombed a nuclear reactor in Iraq, which under the rule of now executed dictator Saddam Hussein was its biggest enemy. The raid was heavily criticised by the United States and UN Security Council.

Israel on offensive against IAEA over Iran (http://afp.google.com/article/ALeqM5ipBrHkNFsmnN9cDHCwFhBewl4t_Q)

Saudi king to hold landmark meeting with pope

Rome, 5 Nov.(AKI) - Saudi Arabia's King Abdullah Bin-Abd-al-Aziz Al Saud arrived in Italy late on Monday with a 22-member delegation for a two-day visit to the capital, Rome. During his stay he was due to meet Italy's president Georgio Napolitano, prime minister Romano Prodi and Pope Benedict XVI - for the first time.

Diplomatic sources told Adnkronos that the visit was taking place in the context of a consolidated relationship between Italy and Saudi Arabia. The leaders will sign on Tuesday sign several key accords in the areas of counter-terrorism, defence, higher education, professional training and health, the sources said.

Abdullah's talks with top government and institutional representatives are expected to centre on international politics, especially Lebanon, the Arab-Israeli peace process, Iraq and Iran's nuclear file.

Italian diplomats told Adnkronos they will be asking Abdullah and his delegation to elaborate on a recent Saudi proposal for a consortium of Gulf states to enrich uranium in a 'neutral country' as a way out of the international crisis over Iran's nuclear programme.

Abdullah's first official engagement was a dinner on Monday as Napolitano's guest at the Quirinale Palace - official residence of the Italian president.

The Saudi monarch is due on Tuesday to pay an historic visit the Vatican - a state with which Saudi Arabia does not have diplomatic relations - for an audience with Benedict XVI.

Custodian of the Mecca and Medina mosques in Saudia Arabia - two of the holiest Muslim sites - Abdullah is the first Saudi king to meet a pope.

Discussions between Abdullah - viewed as a moderate reformer - and Benedict XVI are expected to focus on increasing dialogue between Catholics and Muslims.

Although it does not have diplomatic relations with Saudi Arabia, the Vatican has ties with many other Islamic nations.

It is forbidden to practise Christianity inside Saudi Arabia and illegal to bring symbols from religions other than Islam into the country. Bibles and crucifixes must be left at the border.

The Vatican has stressed its demands for "reciprocity" meaning that countries such as Saudi Arabia should ease limits on worship by Christians and other non-Muslims.

Church relations with Muslims were badly strained last year after a speech by the pontiff in Germany linking Islam to violence. Benedict later said he regretted that Muslims were offended by his remarks, and the Vatican has since tried to improve relations with Muslims.

Abdullah will on Tuesday meet Rome's mayor and leader of the newly formed centre-left Democratic Party, Walter Veltroni. Also on Tuesday, he will meet Prodi during a meeting of the joint Italo-Saudi Business Council taking place at Rome's Excelsior Hotel.

Abdullah will later hold separate talks with Prodi and Italy's foreign minister Massimo D'Alema at the Renaissance Villa Madama, where he is staying during his visit.

Abdullah is on a 13-day European tour that has already taken in Britain and includes Germany and Turkey on the next leg of his journey.

Saudi king to hold landmark meeting with pope (http://www.adnkronos.com/AKI/English/Politics/?id=1.0.1516157744)

Historic Saudi visit to Vatican
6 November 2007

King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia has met Pope Benedict XVI at the Vatican - the first audience by the head of the Roman Catholic Church with a Saudi monarch.

The Vatican described the private meeting as "warm" and said the two men discussed the presence and hard work of Christians in Saudi Arabia.

An estimated 1.5m Christians live in Saudi Arabia but are not allowed to worship publicly.

The Vatican said Abdullah requested the audience as part of a European tour.

The two sides have no diplomatic ties, although when Abdullah was crown prince he met the late Pope John Paul II.

Correspondents say the visit comes as relations between the Vatican and the Muslim world are improving, more than a year after the crisis caused by a papal speech appearing to associate Islam with violence.

The 84-year-old Saudi monarch is on the third leg of his European tour after visiting the UK and Switzerland. He will travel next to Germany and Turkey.

Inter-faith dialogue

Pope Benedict warmly greeted King Abdullah at the Vatican on Tuesday, grasping both his hands before leading him to a library for their brief private meeting, which lasted only 30 minutes, with both leaders speaking through interpreters.

Afterwards, the king offered his host a gold sword encrusted with jewels. He was given a 16th Century engraving of the Vatican in return.

The Vatican said the talks allowed a wide discussion on the need for religious and cultural dialogue among Christians, Muslims and Jews "for the promotion of peace, justice and spiritual and moral values, especially in support of the family."

Both sides also emphasised the need for a "just solution" to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, the Vatican said.

About a million Catholics, many of them migrant workers from the Philippines, live in the conservative desert kingdom, which is the home of Islam's holiest shrines.

They are allowed to worship in private, mostly in people's homes, but worship in public places and outward signs of faith, such as crucifixes, are forbidden.

Christians complain that rules are not clear and hardline Muslim authorities sometimes crack down on legitimate congregations.

"The most important thing is to get the possibility to gather in freedom and security for our worship, our masses and our activities," said Bishop Paul Hinder, responsible for Catholics in Arabia, in an interview with Reuters news agency.

The Saudi authorities cite a tradition of the Prophet Muhammad that only Islam can be practised in the Arabian Peninsula.

King Abdullah, who is styled the Custodian of the Two Sacred Mosques - in Mecca and Medina - is an advocate of cautious reform in Saudi Arabia, often against the wishes of the powerful conservative religious establishment.

The BBC's Frances Harrison in Rome says the symbolism of the meeting was huge for those who believe there should be more dialogue between Islam and Christianity, especially after the pontiff's controversial September 2006 speech at Regensburg University.

In it, he quoted Emperor Manuel II Paleologos of the Byzantine Empire, who said in the 14th Century that the Prophet Muhammad had brought only "evil and inhuman" things.

The pope later stressed that these had not been his own words and expressed regret for any offence they had caused.

Historic Saudi visit to Vatican (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/7080327.stm)

U.S. Navy starts exercises in Gulf waters

MANAMA (Reuters) - The U.S. Navy began a series of exercises in the Gulf and wider Gulf waters on Friday involving a U.S aircraft carrier and two expeditionary assault ships.

The five-day crisis response exercise involved amphibious, air and medical forces, the U.S. Navy's Fifth Fleet, headquartered in Bahrain, said in a statement.

"The scenario is challenging but prepares us for a real-world event," Commander Jay Chambers, of Combined Task Force 59, said.

The start of the exercises coincided with world powers agreeing at talks in London to push ahead with a third round of sanctions against Iran, unless reports indicate Tehran has tried to address their concerns about its nuclear programme.

Washington has not ruled out military action against Iran, which lies on the Gulf. Tehran denies it is seeking nuclear weapons.

Fifth Fleet spokesman Lieutenant John Gay said the exercises had been planned for months and were not related to specific events, instead outlining only humanitarian assistance and natural disaster scenarios for the manoeuvres.

"Our primary goal is to enforce maritime security including the free flow of commerce through the Gulf for all regional partners ... We are committed to keeping the Strait of Hormuz open to ensure that there is a free flow of commerce throughout the region," Gay said.

The United States has launched several war games at Iran's doorstep in recent years. In June, the largest U.S. military flotilla to enter the Gulf since the 2003 Iraq war wound up two weeks of war drills off Iran's coast and near the Strait of Hormuz, a major channel for oil shipments from the Gulf.

Iran has dismissed the U.S. naval war games near its waters as a morale boosting exercise for American forces.

An Iranian Revolutionary Guards naval commander suggested on Monday that Iran's Islamic militia forces would be capable of disrupting strategic Gulf oil shipping routes with a small operation if ever the need arose.

Chambers said the manoeuvres were designed to practise a coordinated response to a natural disaster or crisis in the region.

The navy said the exercise inside the Gulf was led by a task force that includes the Wasp, an amphibious assault ship. The vessel, which looks like a small aircraft carrier, carries Marine corps helicopters and landing craft.

The navy also said the aircraft carrier Enterprise and its strike group and the Kearsarge expeditionary strike group had begun training in wider Gulf waters.

The Kearsarge is another amphibious assault ship equipped with helicopters and landing craft. The U.S. Marine Corps operates from the ship, which is designed for rapid deployment.

"Multiple strike groups are capable of executing a broad range of operations," the U.S. Navy said.

U.S. Navy starts exercises in Gulf waters (http://www.iranfocus.com/modules/news/article.php?storyid=13023)

Iran says it reaches nuclear milestone By ALI AKBAR DAREINI, Associated Press Writer
1 hour, 3 minutes ago

BIRJAND, Iran - Iran has reached a milestone in its nuclear program, President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said Wednesday, suggesting that the country now has 3,000 uranium-enriching centrifuges fully operating.

"We have now reached 3,000 machines," Ahmadinejad told thousands of Iranians gathered in Birjand, in eastern Iran, in a show of defiance of international demands to halt the program that the U.S. and its allies say masks the country's nuclear arms efforts.

Ahmadinejad has in the past claimed that Iran had succeeded in installing the 3,000 centrifuges at its uranium enrichment facility at Natanz.

But Wednesday's claim appeared to go further, with Ahmadinejad's words and the tone and setting of his Wednesday speech suggesting he meant all 3,000 were running.

An official with knowledge of Iran's nuclear activities said that Iran does now have nearly 3,000 centrifuges operating at Natanz. But that official said it would take years for all the centrifuges to run smoothly without frequent breakdowns.

The official spoke on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to speak publicly about the sensitive program.

The number 3,000 is the commonly accepted figure for a nuclear enrichment program that is past the experimental stage and can be used as a platform for a full industrial-scale program that could churn out enough enriched material for dozens of nuclear weapons, should Iran chose to go the route.

Experts have estimated Iran would need only 1,500 centrifuges to produce one such warhead.

In Washington, the State Department could not confirm the accuracy of Ahmadinejad's statement but said it was proof that that Iran was continuing to defy international demands.

"Generally, the Iranians have followed through on doing what they said they were going to do," spokesman Sean McCormack said. "That isn't to say that I am aware that they have reached the 3,000 centrifuge mark, but they have been very consistent in pushing toward the goals they have laid out for themselves.

"Whether it is 2,000 or 2,500 or 3,000 or 1,000 centrifuges, the irrefutable fact is that they are continuing to defy the international community, that they have refused the offers of negotiations and cooperation offered them," McCormack said.

A recent report by International Atomic Energy Agency chief Mohamed ElBaradei that had put the number of centrifuges working in Natanz at close to 2,000, with another 650 being tested.

Officials from the Vienna-based agency could not be reached for immediate comment Wednesday.

Uranium gas, spun in linked centrifuges, can result in either low-enriched fuel suitable to generate power in a nuclear reactor, or the weapons-grade material that forms the fissile core of nuclear warheads.

Tehran denies that Iran is using its civilian nuclear program as a cover for weapons' development, insisting it is geared toward generating electricity.

Iran says it plans to expand its enrichment program to up to 54,000 centrifuges at Natanz in central Iran, and is fully within its rights to pursue the enrichment to produce fuel under the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty.

Two rounds of U.N. Security Council sanctions have failed to persuade Iran to halt the enrichment.

Ahmadinejad on Wednesday reiterated his rejection of any suspension of Iran's enrichment activities, or even a compromise over how Tehran will proceed beyond the 3,000 centrifuges.

"The world must know that this nation will not give up one iota of its nuclear rights," he said. "If they think they can get concessions from this nation, they are badly mistaken."

Here we go, man o man!

Georgian FM names Russian diplomats declared personae non-gratae

07.11.2007, 22.27

TBILISI, November 7 (Itar-Tass) -- The Georgian Foreign Ministry on Wednesday announced the names of three Russian diplomats who have been declared personae non-gratae and have to leave the country.

“The Russian embassy in Georgia has been given a note for transfer to the Russian Foreign Ministry,” the ministry said.

The note says that Russian Minister-Counsellor to Georgia Ivan Volynkin, adviser Pyotr Solomatin, and 3rd Secretary Alexander Kurenkov were declared personae non-gratae.

Under Clause 9 of the Vienna Convention on Diplomatic Relations, THE Georgian Foreign Ministry demanded that Russia recall these diplomats.

Earlier in the day, Georgian President Mikhail Saakashvili said in a televised address to the nation that “several employees of the Russian embassy were engaged in subversive activities and espionage in Georgia. These employees of the Russian embassy will leave Georgia within days”.

Saakashvili accused Russian secret services of subversive actions against Georgia.

“All the mechanisms of lies and provocations on the part of the state which has much money and large experience have been activated,” he said.

“We have proof and we will make it public. We have recalled our ambassador [to Russia] and it’s not a theatrical gesture,” the president said.

Georgia recalled its Ambassador to Russia Irakly Chubinishvili “for consultations in Tbilisi,” the Georgian Foreign Ministry said.

“I have heard about an alternative government [Georgia] that was created in Moscow,” Saakashvili said.

He described as “unpleasant” Wednesday’s events in Tbilisi when commandoes dispersed an opposition rally and said this is how law enforcement agencies act in Europe and the United States.

Saakashvili said the leadership of the country “will do everything to prevent mass disturbances."

Authorities are prepared for a dialogue with the opposition. “There are many people among the opposition who truly care about the country. These people have a different vision of how problems should be solved, but a dialogued with them is possible. But there are also people among them who are controlled by outside forces, namely from Russia, and there will be no dialogue with them. We have concrete facts that these people maintained contact with Russian secret services,” the president said.

“No foreign force will take us back to the past,” he vowed.

Georgian FM names Russian diplomats declared personae non-gratae (http://itar-tass.com/eng/level2.html?NewsID=12046682&PageNum=0)

Ahmadinejad: 3,000 centrifuges running
Associated Press , THE JERUSALEM POST Nov. 7, 2007

Iran has achieved a landmark, with 3,000 centrifuges fully working in its controversial uranium enrichment program, President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad announced Wednesday.

"We have now reached 3,000 machines," Ahmadinejad told thousands of Iranians gathered in Birjand, in eastern Iran, in a show of defiance of international demands to halt the program believed to be masking the country's nuclear arms efforts.

Ahmadinejad has in the past claimed that Iran succeeded in installing the 3,000 centrifuges at its uranium enrichment facility at Natanz. But Wednesday's claim was his first official statement that the plant is now fully operating all those centrifuges.

When Iran first announced launching the 3,000 centrifuges in April, the UN nuclear watchdog agency, the International Atomic Energy Agency, said Teheran had only 328 centrifuges up and running at Natanz's underground facility.

In a recent report, drawn up by IAEA chief Mohamed ElBaradei, the agency put the number of centrifuges working in Natanz at close to 2,000, with another 650 being tested.

Uranium gas, spun in linked centrifuges, can result in either low-enriched fuel suitable to generate power in a nuclear reactor, or the weapons-grade material that forms the fissile core of nuclear warheads.

The US and some of its Western allies believe Iran is using its civilian nuclear program as a cover for weapons' development. Teheran denies this, insisting its nuclear program is geared toward generating electricity, not a nuclear bomb.

US experts say 3,000 centrifuges are in theory enough to produce a nuclear weapon, perhaps as soon as within a year.

Iran says it plans to expand its enrichment program to up to 54,000 centrifuges at Natanz in central Iran - which would amount to the level of industrial-scale uranium enrichment.
Two rounds of UN Security Council sanctions have failed to persuade Iran to halt the enrichment.

Ahmadinejad on Wednesday reiterated his rejection of any suspension of Iran's enrichment activities, or even a compromise over how Teheran will proceed beyond the 3,000 centrifuges.

"They say they've swallowed (bitterly accepted) these 3,000 and want to reach an agreement with us on what to do, at what speed, how many (centrifuges) a day or week," Ahmadinejad said of latest Western pressures.

"Our response is: 'Who are you to make comments about the Iranian nation ... do we ask you how many machines you have,"' Ahmadinejad added.
He also said he had bluntly refused a recent offer to negotiate with the United States over Iran's nuclear activities.

"I, as your representative, told those who brought the message that we didn't ask for talks ... If talks are to be held, it is the Iranian nation that has to set conditions, not the arrogant and the criminals," Ahmadinejad said.

"The world must know that this nation will not give up one iota of its nuclear rights ... if they think they can get concessions from this nation, they are badly mistaken," he concluded.

Iran says it is fully within its rights to pursue the enrichment to produce fuel under the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty.

Ahmadinejad: 3,000 centrifuges running (http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?cid=1192380756670&pagename=JPost%2FJPArticle%2FPrinter)

Strategic value key to Turkey's accession'

CANSU ÇAMLIBEL
BRUSSELS - Turkish Daily News

Since Turkey's accession talks have undergone hard times due to serious objections from some EU member states, in particular France, the European Commission has stepped up its advocating the importance of keeping Turkey on the path to Brussels. The Commission aims to remind EU countries of Turkey's strategic importance for the Union, an argument which had major influence after September 11 but has been scaled down recently.

The Commission reflected its insistence on further negotiations with Ankara in its enlargement strategy paper due for publication Nov. 6 together with its progress report on Turkey. A draft of the strategy paper, obtained by the Turkish Daily News, contains an open call to member states to refrain from blocking negotiations for political reasons unrelated to substance. “It is essential that the European Union honor its commitments and keep the negotiation process on track and that chapters are opened as soon as technical conditions are met,” the paper said. The call came at a critical stage after France began silently blocking two chapters that are technically ready on trans-European Networks and protection of the consumer and health in anticipation of establishing a consultation committee of “wise men”.

In order to demonstrate the strategic importance of accession negotiations, the European Commission listed a number of areas highlighting Turkey's vital role in preserving the interests of the Union.

Energy hub:

Turkey has the potential to become a major energy hub between the EU and the world's biggest oil and gas sources, and thus a key actor for the security of Europe's energy supply. An impact study on energy supply in Turkey will be presented in 2008.

Peacekeeping missions:

Turkey holds important security assets and has already provided them in an number of EU and NATO missions from the Western Balkans to the Democratic Republic of Congo and from Darfur to Afghanistan.

Migration control

Turkey's alignment on EU policies will bring particular benefits in areas such as migration control and environment.

Bridge between the West and Muslim world

Turkey's continued commitment to reforms holds major strategic importance for the EU's own security and stability. Turkey is a unique interface between the West and Muslim world. This has been clearly established by the Alliance of Civilizations initiative to foster dialogue under the auspices of the UN.

Efforts for Middle East peace

Turkey's accession to the EU, based on profound democratic transformation, is followed with interest in the Middle East and the wider Muslim world. Turkey is also engaged in the Middle East peace process. In line with the position of Quartet, Turkey supported the formation of a National Unity Government.

Support for Iraq

Turkey has continued to support efforts towards achieving Iraq's national reconciliation, security and peace. Turkey has offered to train Iraqi security forces. It has organized seminars for Iraqi political parties, diplomats, media representatives and health personnel. Turkey hosted an enlarged meeting of Iraq's neighboring countries aimed at achieving national reconciliation and stabilization in the country. However, due to Turkish concerns on lack of security at the border, relations with Iraq continues to present challenges.

Constructive contacts with Iran

While remaining in dialogue with Iran on the nuclear issue, Turkey has also supported all statements by the EU related to Iran's nuclear program. In the context of the high-level talks with Iranian officials, Turkey encouraged compliance with international requirements. In April, Turkey hosted a meeting between High Representative Javier Solana and the Iranian Chief Negotiator. In July, a bilateral Memorandum on Understanding on energy was signed.

High level trade with EU

Turkey consistently records high and steady economic growth and is among the EU's leading trade and investment partners.

Despite the Commission's overall positive assessments on issues relating to Turkey's alignment with European common policy, Ankara was also criticized for dragging its feet on some international obligations considered to be areas of priority for the Union.

Non-compliance with additional protocol

Turkey has not fully implemented the Additional Protocol to the Association Agreement and has not removed all obstacles to the free movement of goods, including restrictions on direct transport links with Cyprus.

Veto on EU-Nato cooperation

Turkey's desire to increase its involvement in European Security and Defense Policy has been welcomed. However, Turkey objects to the inclusion of Cyprus and Malta in EU-NATO cooperation based on the “Berlin Plus” Agreement.

Casus belli

Turkey and Greece have continued their efforts to improve bilateral relations. In November, the Turkish Chief of Staff visited Greece. On this occasion, the military-related aspects of the previously agreed confidence-building measures were reviewed and evaluated and further measures were agreed upon. However, the “casus belli” reference in relation to the possible extension of Greek territorial waters in the resolution adopted by the Turkish Parliament in 1995 remains unchanged.

Border with Armenia closed

Meetings between high-level Turkish and Armenian officials have taken place. Furthermore, Turkey took the symbolic steps of inviting Armenian representatives to the funeral of assassinated Turkish journalist of Armenian origin Hrant Dink in January, and to the inauguration of the restored Armenian Church of the Holy Cross in Akdamar in March. However, there have been no substantial developments on improving relations. Turkey has kept its border with Armenia closed.

Strategic value key to Turkey's accession' (http://www.turkishdailynews.com.tr/article.php?enewsid=87514)

Iran 'could have atom bomb in a year'
November 7, 2007

President Ahmadinejad of Iran claimed today that his country had developed 3,000 centrifuges for enriching uranium - a sufficient number, according to scientists to allow it to build an atomic bomb within a year.

In a defiant speech, Mr Ahmadinejad also vowed to continue ignoring UN Security Council resolutions to stop Iran's nuclear programme, claiming that "the Iranian nation could not care a less" about two rounds of sanctions that had been imposed.

"We have now reached 3,000 machines," the Iranian leader told a rally in the north eastern city of Birjand.

Enriched uranium can fuel power plants but also, if refined further, provide fissile material for bombs, although Iran says that its nuclear programme is for generating electricity.

Western experts say that, in ideal conditions, Iran's 3,000 centrifuges could enrich enough uranium within a year to make a nuclear warhead. The centrifuges are located at an underground nuclear facility at Natanz in central Iran.

Mr Ahmadeinjad said that he would not back down on uranium enrichment and UN sanctions programmes and resolutions were meaningless. "Some people say implement the resolutions, but we say the resolutions are based on a wrong report," he said.

"Iran will not give any credit to these resolutions. They should know that the Iranian nation could not care less about the sanctions."

He added that the Iranian people "will not retreat an iota from any of their rights, especially nuclear rights".

Rejecting Western pressures to halt the programme, he added: “Our response is: ’Who are you to make comments about the Iranian nation. Do we ask you how many machines you have?"

Two programmes of sanctions have now been imposed which target the Islamic Republic's nuclear programme and ballistic missile programme. In addition, the United States has imposed its own unilateral sanctions, including blacklisting the country's elite Revolutionary Guard corps and its Quds force, accused of arming and training insurgents in Iraq.

It has also blacklisted major Iranian banks and successfully encouraged virtually all major European banks into cutting business with the Islamic republic.

Iran and the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) agreed on a timetable in August for Tehran to provide answers to outstanding questions over its nuclear programme. In addition, the EU foreign policy chief Javier Solana is due to publish a report by mid-November.

Iran 'could have atom bomb in a year' (http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/middle_east/article2824127.ece)

'US troops might become Iran's hostages'
Associated Press , THE JERUSALEM POST Nov. 7, 2007

If a US attack against Iran occurs, American forces in Iraq could end up virtual "hostages in Iran's hands," Lebanon's most senior Shi'ite Muslim cleric has warned.

Grand Ayatollah Mohammed Hussein Fadlallah - a former Hizbullah spiritual guide still widely respected by many militants - says US President George W. Bush's war on terror has encouraged extremists, not curbed them, and has deepened Arab animosity toward America.

"The American people must realize that their administration is not fighting terrorism but rather is causing it," Fadlallah told The Associated Press Tuesday.

Fadlallah spoke at a mosque in Haret Hreik where he leads noon prayers, not far from where his house and office, located in the Hizbullah stronghold of south Beirut, were leveled by Israeli warplanes during last year's summer war between Israel and Iranian-backed Hizbullah guerrillas.

He is the top religious authority for Lebanon's 1.2 million Shi'ites, believed to be the country's largest of 18 sects. The cleric - who often criticizes US polices in the Mideast - told the AP he thought a US attack on Iran was unlikely but he still had harsh words of warning.

"I believe that the conditions in the region, the failure facing President Bush's policies in the region, and fears by (Arab) Gulf states that a war on Iran will probably destroy sensitive areas - especially oil wealth sources - makes an attack on Iran highly unlikely," the black-turbaned, white-bearded cleric said.

But "in the event of a war on Iran, US soldiers in Iraq might become hostages in Iran's hands," he added.

There are increasing worries among some Arabs that the US or Israel plans to strike Iran. Though Washington has said it wants to solve its differences with Teheran diplomatically, it has said it's not ruling out any options.

The US and some of its Western allies believe Iran is using its civilian nuclear program as a cover for weapons development. Teheran denies this, insisting its nuclear program is for generating electricity, not developing a nuclear bomb.

Washington also accuses Shi'ite-majority Iran of supplying Shi'ite militants in Iraq with deadly roadside bombs that have killed American troops - a claim Tehran also denies.

In a show of defiance, Iran has staged large-scale military parades and made claims recently that its military would strike back if attacked.

Last month, Gen. Mahmoud Chaharbaghi, the missile commander of Iran's elite Revolutionary Guard Corps, said the country was capable of firing 11,000 rockets into enemy bases within a minute of any attack. The US has tens of thousands troops in Iran's neighbors Iraq and Afghanistan as well across the Gulf and in Mideast waters.

Fadlallah, 72, has emerged over the years as a prominent figure in Lebanese and regional politics. Some visiting foreign dignitaries have called on him, including most recently British Mideast envoy Michael Williams.

He now lives in a renovated house adjacent to his destroyed residence amid rubble and shell-pocked buildings in Beirut's southern suburbs.

A Lebanese born in the Iraqi city of Najaf, the spiritual heart for Shi'ites, Fadlallah was spiritual mentor for Hizbullah during the 1980s, when militants linked to the group were blamed for kidnapping Westerners and bombing American embassies and the Marine base in Beirut, killing more than 260 Americans.

Hizbullah, which is listed as a terrorist organization by Washington, has denied involvement in the kidnappings or bombings.

Fadlallah also has denied links to the bombings, though Western intelligence officials in the 1980s claimed he blessed the suicide drivers whose bomb-laden vehicles destroyed the Marine base and French military headquarters in Beirut in 1983.

Fadlallah escaped a 1985 car bombing of his neighborhood that killed 75 people and wounded 256, an attack believed by many to have been masterminded by the CIA.

In 1995, former US President Bill Clinton issued an order to freeze the cleric's US assets as part of an anti-terror campaign.

Fadlallah has stopped being Hizbullah's spiritual guide about 20 years ago, and has regularly condemned terror attacks against civilians. He currently runs an Islamic charity with links to businesses such as schools, gas stations and a restaurant.

But his ties to Hizbullah are not completely severed. He recently met Hizbullah's leader Hassan Nasrallah.

"My relations with Hizbullah are good," he said Tuesday, without elaborating.

Fadlallah has followers among Shi'ites in Iraq, the Gulf, Pakistan and India. He has accused the US of engineering the sectarian strife in Iraq and decried Sunni-Shi'ite violence there.

'US troops might become Iran's hostages' (http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?cid=1192380760950&pagename=JPost%2FJPArticle%2FPrinter)

Iran Chemical, Bio Weapons Threat Is Real

Wednesday, November 7, 2007 8:09 PM
By: Steven J. Allen

An attack on Iran could trigger horrific retaliation against the U.S. and her allies in the Middle East with chemical and biological weapons including nerve gas, anthrax, and a germ similar to the devastating Ebola virus.

While the U.S. has not overtly threatened to bomb Iran’s burgeoning nuclear facilities, it has warned of using the “military option.” And Iran has countered if attacked it would retaliate.

Western intelligence experts doubt Iran has acquired a nuclear device and suggest she is several years from doing so.

But many agree that Iran has a program for chemical and biological weapons (CBWs) -- one more shrouded in secrecy than her nuclear program. Not only do analysts say the Islamic regime has stockpiles of CBWs, they also suggest that Iran also has the means to deliver the weapons to targets in Israel, Iraq and the United States.

“The threat of chemical and biological retaliatory attack by Iran is very real,” Dr. Dany Shoham, a chemical and biological weapons expert at the Begin Sadat Center for Strategic Studies in Israel, tells Newsmax. “Iran is prone to dare what Iraq did not, and has the needed operational capabilities.”

In response to a U.S. or Israeli attack, analysts maintain that Iran could strike U.S. forces in Iraq with artillery shells containing CBWs. Iran’s Shahab-3 missiles, with a range of up to 1,200 miles, could hit U.S. bases as far away as Oman, as well as Israeli targets in Haifa and Tel Aviv, experts say.

In addition to aerial bombardment, the Iranians could spray CBWs -- including anthrax -- from unmanned aerial vehicles, helicopters or boats. Iran could also employ suicide attackers to drive trucks filled with CBWs into target areas, experts add.

Military experts also fear that Iran’s retaliation might not be limited to the Middle East. CBWs – especially biological weapons, which take up little space – could even be smuggled into the U.S.

A single gram of anthrax spores, the size of a packet of artificial sweetener, represents 5 million to 100 million lethal doses via inhalation. Once in the U.S., CBWs could be used in countless forms of attack, from direct attacks on civilians at shopping malls or schools, to infection of livestock, to poisoning of water supplies, experts say.

By whatever delivery method, the Iranians could release any combination of the chemical agents they are believed to posses, including:

# Blister agents that damage the skin, eyes, and lungs

# Nerve agents that kill by fixing the nerves in victims’ bodies in the “on” position, causing paralysis and asphyxiation

# “Blood agents” that interfere with the energy-producing function of cells in the body

# Choking agents that attack the tissues of the respiratory system, leading to slow suffocation.

Iran is also thought capable of employing powerful toxins – poisons made from living things – that cause bleeding, paralysis, diarrhea, and organ failure by interfering with the normal chemistry of the body. Toxins can also cause long-term effects such as liver cancer.

Such attacks would not only create casualties, but could force Iran’s enemies to abandon some areas altogether, military experts fear. For example, CBWs could render impassable the Strait of Hormuz, through which 20 percent of the world’s oil supply is shipped.

The extent of Iran’s CBWs is hard to determine because CBW programs are easy to hide, analysts note. It is difficult for observers to tell the difference between legitimate chemical or biotechnology facilities and those that produce weapons.

A 2006 staff report by a subcommittee of the House Intelligence Committee complained that intelligence regarding potential Iranian CBWs was “neither voluminous nor conclusive,” although U.S. intelligence agencies had concluded that “Iran likely is pursuing chemical and biological weapons.”

Justin Logan of the anti-war Cato Institute wrote in USA Today that “Iran’s strategy of defense against a U.S. attack could involve . . . possibly chemical or biological attacks against either U.S. personnel in the region or against Israel.”

Even conservative columnist Norman Podhoretz, a prominent advocate for an attack on Iran, writes in Commentary Magazine that it is “plausible” that Iran “would attack Israel with missiles armed with non-nuclear warheads but possibly containing biological and/or chemical weapons.”

A recent report by the Center for Strategic and International Studies noted allegations of CBW production at facilities in Damghan and near Tehran. The center cites “credible-but-unverified reports” suggesting Iran may be stockpiling anthrax and botulinum toxin near Tabriz.

With regard to mustard gas and nerve gas, the CSIS report concludes that Iran possesses the technology to mass-produce those chemicals and deliver them to targets in artillery shells and bombs.

The American Federation of Scientists, meanwhile, estimates that Iran has several thousand tons of various agents, including sulfur mustard, phosgene, and cyanide agents. The FAS pegs Iran’s CBW production capability at around 1,000 tons per year.

For clues into Iran’s secretive weapons programs, analysts consider that:

# Except for Pakistan, Iran is the most advanced nation in the Muslim world in the production and use of industrial chemicals and in biotechnology.

# Iran came under repeated CBW attack during its long war with Iraq, gaining an appreciation of the value of such weapons, knowledge as to their battlefield use, and the opportunity to reverse-engineer the weapons used by the Iraqis.

# As early as the 1980s, Iran was conducting extensive research on mycotoxins (fungal poisons).

# In 1998, The New York Times reported that Iran was recruiting scientists who had worked in the Soviet biological weapons program.

# In 2001, the Undersecretary of State for Arms Control said that Iran had produced biological weapons, and the Department of Defense declared that Iran had stockpiled blister, blood, and choking agents for use in shells, rockets, and aerial bombs.

# According to multiple, credible reports, Iran has had access to CBW technology from the former Soviet Union, China, North Korea, and Cuba.

Iran Chemical, Bio Weapons Threat Is Real (http://www.newsmax.com/headlines/Iran_Chemical,_Bio_Weapon/2007/11/07/47636.html)

Russia confirms treaty suspension, weighs force deployments

by Christopher Boian Wed Nov 7, 2:59 PM ET

MOSCOW (AFP) - Russia's parliament voted Wednesday to suspend compliance with a key Cold War treaty limiting conventional forces in Europe as Moscow signalled it was weighing new force deployments on its western flank.

NATO quickly responded to the move, calling it a "regrettable step."

The lower house of Russia's parliament, the State Duma, voted unanimously to approve a Kremlin decision to suspend compliance with the 1990 Conventional Forces in Europe (CFE) treaty from December 12.

The CFE treaty "no longer responds to the security interests of the Russian Federation" in light of NATO expansion and other factors that have altered the European security landscape, according to the motion approved by the Duma.

The vote was confirmation of a decision announced by President Vladimir Putin last July. The upper house of parliament was expected to validate the Duma vote on November 16.

The 1990 pact, signed by the states of NATO and the Warsaw Pact, was modified in 1999 to take account of the breakup of the Soviet Union and the evolving security allegiances on the continent.

But Russia is the only party so far to have ratified the updated CFE pact. NATO members, led by the United States, have balked at ratifying the new deal until all Russian forces are out of ex-Soviet states Georgia and Moldova.

Russian officials insisted they had fully complied with the updated version and wanted the West to do the same.

"As far as the 1999 decision reached in Istanbul is concerned, Russia has fulfilled its obligations on all issues -- including the withdrawal of troops from Georgia and Moldova," Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said.

Shortly before the Duma vote, a senior Russian defence official said Russia was looking at options for bolstering conventional force deployments on its western flank with Europe in light of the CFE suspension.

"Work is being done on this issue," Russia's deputy defence minister, General Alexander Kolmakov, was quoted as saying by domestic news agencies, adding that no decision had yet been taken.

Russia's armed forces chief of staff, General Yury Baluyevsky, was quoted by Interfax news agency afterwards as saying that Russia was in no rush to deploy more forces in the west of the country but "must have the right" to do so.

Baluyevsky said that as a result of its enlargement to take in former states of the Soviet-run Warsaw Pact, NATO had already largely exceeded the conventional force deployment limits spelled out by the CFE treaty.

Specifically, he said NATO had surpassed those limits by nearly 6,000 tanks, 10,822 armoured fighting vehicles, 5,000 artillery pieces, nearly 1,500 military aircraft and more than 500 strike helicopters.

"The destruction of the CFE treaty will be a massive, painful loss for the states of Europe," Baluyevsky said.

In Brussels, NATO spokesman James Appathurai voiced the alliance's displeasure with the Russian move, saying "each step that Russia takes toward the withdrawal of the treaty is a regrettable step."

The Duma vote and reports that Moscow was reviewing its conventional force configuration in Europe were the latest in a series of assertive defence policy changes that have ratcheted up tensions between Russia and the West.

Putin and other top Russian officials this year have threatened to retarget nuclear missiles at European cities, renewed long-distance strategic bomber patrols and threatened to withdraw from other bedrock disarmament treaties.

Russia has been particularly upset by US plans to deploy elements of its new missile defence system in Poland and the Czech Republic, saying the plan in its current state would harm Russian security.

The United States has said the plan is designed to protect Europe from missiles launched by "rogue states" like Iran and has rejected the Russian complaints, though the two sides continue to discuss the issue.

Russia confirms treaty suspension, weighs force deployments (http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20071107/wl_afp/russianatomilitarytreatycfe_071107195959;_ylt=AkzzLAiYTecteTYITJIbMR.QOrgF)

King Abdullah Interviewed in Germany

Berlin, November 8 , SPA -- The Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques, King Abdullah bin Abdulaziz has given a wide-ranging interview to the German newspaper "Frankfurter Allgemeine" dealing with Saudi-German relations, the international situation in the globalization era, the Middle East peace conference, the Saudi Arabia's efforts at the regional and international levels, international issues led by the situation in the Middle East region and Saudi Arabia's role at various levels.

Following is the text of the interview of the Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques:

Frankfurter Allgemeine: Beginning your journey to Germany, how do you view Germany and what do you expect from Germany politically and economically? Does the history of Germany constitute a burden on our (Germany's) image in the world?

King Abdullah bin Abdulaziz: Germany is a country of an ancient history and human civilization and a minaret of intellect. Its people have the right to be proud of it. It is illogical to diminish the image of Germany and its history or to blame its people for the mistake of a dark era it had lived and the German people were its first victim as the whole world suffered form the crimes of that era. I think Germany managed to overcome this historical era to come back as a great country with its political and economic status and contribute with great efforts to the support of international security and peace and human development. This is what we have felt through its membership and recent chairmanship of the European Union. During this period, there have been constant coordination and consultation at the level of efforts to solve the crises in our region and to bolster economic and cultural cooperation between our two countries.

Frankfurter Allgemeine: In a world where the power influence is currently shifting from the Western Europe to Asia and it is expected that the 21st century will be the century of China, can it also be the century of Arabs?

Chancellor Angela Merkel hosts King Abdullah in Germany on November 7, 2007. (Photo: SPA)King Abdullah: I think that the globalization era we are currently living managed to cancel all political, economic and cultural borders among all countries of the world and as an international community, we have become to live in a world whose concepts transcend geographical borders and there is inter-action among its parts despite distances and various cultures. This requires from us to boost joint cooperation to achieve human development. With their civilization reservoir, deep-rooted culture and human and material capabilities, Arabs are no doubt qualified to tangibly, essentially and importantly contribute to and participate in the world of the 21st century.

Frankfurter Allgemeine: You have been calling for reaching a comprehensive and lasting solution for the Palestinian cause and you presented the peace initiative adopted by the Arab League. The conference which will be held next month in Annapolis as a new attempt to gather parties concerned with the cause, do you expect it to succeed?

King Abdullah: The US president's initiative calling for holding the Middle East peace conference has an important element which is to tackle the main issues of the conflict which are to end the occupation: establish the independent and parts-joined Palestinian state; deal with the problem of refugees and Alquds; improve the state of the Palestinians and other issues constituting the core of the conflict. These positive elements have enjoyed the welcome of the kingdom and the Arab League. We hope the conference will deal with these core issues and be comprehensive in solving at all tracks according to a specific time table ensuring the success of the conference after the trials have proved failure of partial solutions which dealt with the consequences of the conflict and not its core. This will ensure the success of the conference since the US State Secretary has said that failure should not be an alternative. I think that it is time to move from the phase of talking about peace as a process to establishing peace as a reality through real and tangible steps.

Frankfurter Allgemeine: At the end of last week, an international conference was held in Istanbul to discuss ways of helping the Iraqis to restore security and stability. Do you notice any progress in this field - as the Iraqi government claims - and do you think that efforts made until now to integrate the Sunnis into the political life in Iraq are enough?

Chancellor Angela Merkel hosts King Abdullah in Germany on November 7, 2007. (Photo: SPA)King Abdullah: There is a complete regional, Arab and international agreement on the goals of maintaining the security, stability and reconstruction of Iraq under the umbrella of its independence, sovereignty and territorial integrity. The only way to guarantee realizing this goal is to achieve concord and national reconciliation among all people of Iraq with all their political affiliations, religious and sectarian beliefs and ethnicities; equality among all of them with no exception in rights and duties; sharing of wealth and giving priority to the national interest regardless of narrow sectarian interests. We have the impression that this goal has not been achieved yet at the domestic front. Thus, the Iraqi government and people have a historic responsibility to double efforts to achieve national reconciliation. At the external front, the neighboring countries are required to promote these goals by not dealing with Iraq from a sectarian perspective and to help all Iraqis with no bias against any sect especially when it comes to providing financial and humanitarian help and other kinds of aid.

Frankfurter Allgemeine: Turkey is currently threatening to invade Iraq's north to chase and fight the Kurdish rebels. What is the reaction of Saudi Arabia in this case?

King Abdullah: We condemn all forms of terrorism regardless of its sources or justifications and any infiltration across borders. We hope there will be joint efforts between Iraq and Turkey to stop these acts.

cont'd next post

Frankfurter Allgemeine: On behalf of Gulf Cooperation Council, Saudi Foreign Minister - Prince Saud Al Faisal - presented a proposal for a multi-lateral mechanism to provide Iran with enriched uranium which it needs for its nuclear reactor. Do you think that all diplomatic efforts and economic sanctions will fail and inevitably a war between the West and Iran will eventually take place? Is a nuclear Iran a threat to the region and the world?

King Abdullah: We are keen to make the Middle East free from nuclear arms and weapons of mass destruction. The world fears that Iran's nuclear program will lead to development of nuclear arms. Iran has announced that uses of its nuclear program are peaceful. If this is the case, we see no justification for the language of escalation, confrontation and challenge which only complicates matters more.

Therefore, we call for solving this crisis peacefully through dialogue among the parties to ensure Iran's and any other country's right in the peaceful use of nuclear energy according to standards of the International Atomic Energy Agency and under its supervision. These standards should be applied to all countries in the region with no exception.

German President Koehler hosts King Abdullah in Germany on November 7, 2007. (Photo: SPA)The proposal to build a complex for enriching uranium in a neutral country is part of our diplomatic efforts to solve this crisis peacefully. This proposal is also to ensure building the complex according to the highest standards of human and environmental safety under the supervision and control of the International Atomic Energy Agency. It also ensures supplying countries with enough enriched uranium for their peaceful uses.

Frankfurter Allgemeine: In view of Lebanon's failure to reach a solution for the presidency there, are you worried about the increased tension in Lebanon? What can Saudi Arabia provide for stability in Lebanon?

King Abdullah: The tension in Lebanon is a source of great concern for us all especially in view of the painful civil war which occurred there. Saudi Arabia is continuing its efforts at the bilateral level, through the Arab League and at the international level to solve the current disagreements and achieve national concord among the Lebanese. We hope the current efforts will solve the presidential election problem.

Frankfurter Allgemeine: Damascus has recently showed some positive signs with regard to Lebanon and Palestine. Do you actually see changes in Syria's behavior and policies ?

King Abdullah: We hope and look forward to the Syrian role to be as a peace-maker, a supporter of a solution and an assistant in achieving unity either in Lebanon or Palestine.

Frankfurter Allgemeine: Saudi Arabia has recently played the role of a leader in the Arab world, has this formed a burden on you?

King Abdullah: The Kingdom does not seek leadership, but it undoubtedly is keen on shouldering its responsibilities and confronting the challenges facing it as a homeland, Arab world, Islamic nation and world economy.

We do not see a burden in confronting the urgent issues threatening the security of the region and the world or in the search for ways and means to enable our people to enjoy freedom and stability and to contribute to the comprehensive development of their society. We believe that this explains the meaning of responsibility and gives it reason and logic existence.

Frankfurter Allgemeine: Saudi Arabia began following serious and ambitious steps of reform in various fields. What are the next steps in this framework and what are your recommendations and advice to others in the fight against terrorism, especially the Kingdom has largely and unexpectedly succeeded in the fight against terrorism?

King Abdullah: The reform project in the Kingdom began with the foundation of Saudi modern state by late King Abdulaziz bin Abdulrahman who laid the frameworks of the cotemporary state. His sons, the Kings, marched on this way after him. The reform project is based on the principles of the Islamic Sharia, laws, purposes and Arab inherited traditions. It also pursues the principle of knowing prevailing views and trends in society. It is characterized by causing gradual and incremental changes in the infrastructures and the structures of the state institutions and the civil society leading to the comprehensiveness in presentation, integration in the implementation, timely programming and simultaneous preservation of the identity of the Saudi society and its deep-rooted and old heritage.

During the last two decades, Saudi Arabia has witnessed a number of reform steps which resulted in expanding the national participation in many political, economic, social, legal, administrative, educational and other fields allowed by the regulations of basic government; bolstering the role of the Shoura Council; the election of municipal councils and the emergence of many civil society institutions which support decision making and effectively participate in performing vital roles that government agencies alone can not perform.

The kingdom will continue its reforms in cohesion with the nature of life and requirements of our times which require movement, change and renewal toward the best, God willing.

On terrorism, it remains the overwhelming danger threatening our security as an entire international community, aiming at destabilizing our peoples and countries regardless of gender, religion, ethnicity or culture. In the kingdom, we achieved major steps in confronting this phenomenon due to unity of the Saudi people in the face of this phenomenon which is alien to Islamic values and ethics. We will not stop until we uproot this malignant scourge.

On bolstering international efforts to confront the phenomenon of terrorism, the kingdom hosted an international conference on fighting terrorism. Many countries of the world participated in it at the level of experts and specialists in their security sectors. The conference made many important and practical recommendations to develop international cooperation in fighting terrorism. We hope these recommendations will be implemented especially the one concerning the establishment of an international center for fighting terrorism allowing us to speedily exchange information, expertise and experiments in this field.

King Abdullah Interviewed in Germany (http://www.saudi-us-relations.org/articles/2007/ioi/071108-germany-interview.html)

Merkel Backs King’s Peace Initiatives
Khaled Almaeena

BERLIN, 8 November 2007 — Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques King Abdullah yesterday began a landmark state visit to Germany where Chancellor Angela Merkel offered her country’s full support to the king’s peace initiatives to resolve global conflicts.

“We know that you have dedicated your efforts to settle conflicts through peaceful means. We’ll cooperate with you in this area to solve all problems peacefully. This applies not only to your region but the whole world,” Merkel told the king.

King Abdullah’s talks with Merkel focused on the Middle East peace process and the Iran nuclear crisis. Merkel’s spokesman said that apart from bilateral issues and trade relations, the two leaders would discuss the Middle East conflict ahead of the peace conference called by US President George W. Bush later this month. The standoff over Iran’s nuclear enrichment program, the crisis in Pakistan and the situation in Afghanistan were other possible themes, he said.

Merkel was holding talks with the king in the chancellery ahead of a state banquet hosted by President Horst Koehler at his official Berlin residence, Schloss Bellevue. During the banquet, Koehler conferred on the king Germany’s highest medal while Abdullah gave the president the King Abdul Aziz Medallion of the First Order.

Abdullah will visit Berlin’s Brandenburg Gate and City Hall today before leaving the country tomorrow.

Merkel visited Riyadh in February, and Abdullah was last in Germany six years ago, as crown prince. Abdullah is on a European tour, his second after becoming king in August 2005. Previous stops on his current trip were London, Geneva and Rome, where he held a historic meeting with Pope Benedict XVI.

King Abdullah proposed the new Arab Peace Initiative, which was relaunched at the Arab summit in Riyadh in March, 2007. It offers Israel peace and normal ties if it withdraws from all land seized in the 1967 Six-Day War and allows for the creation of a Palestinian state and return of Palestinian refugees.

Merkel’s meeting with the Saudi monarch comes before leaving tomorrow for weekend talks with President Bush in Texas, which she says will focus on Iran’s nuclear program.

“I appreciate the great role being played by Germany at the European and international levels, and its contributions toward solving regional and global issues,” the king told Merkel while addressing a luncheon hosted by her at the chancellery.

Abdullah highlighted the problems facing the Middle East and sought Germany’s help to defuse the explosive situation in the region, remove weapons of mass destruction and enhance international cooperation to combat terrorism in order to reinforce peace and stability in the world.

“Germany with its strong economic and political position is qualified to play an effective role to establish peace in the world,” the king said. He also emphasized the Kingdom’s desire to strengthen cooperation with Germany. “I am confident that the future of Saudi-German relations will be bright,” he added.

On her part, Chancellor Merkel said the royal visit would take Saudi-German relations to new heights, not only in the economic sectors but also in areas of political, cultural and scientific importance.

Merkel commended the king for meeting Pope Benedict XVI at the Vatican on Tuesday during his visit to Italy. “We have been following up your meeting with the pope with great interest. It was a fruitful meeting and we know that you support interfaith dialogue to resolve all issues and problems,” she said. At the Vatican on Tuesday, Abdullah became the first Saudi king to have an audience with the pope.

Speaking to the Saudi Press Agency, former German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder expressed his appreciation of the great efforts being made by the king to promote the progress and prosperity of his people, and establish giant economic and scientific projects.

Schroeder said the king’s visit to Germany was highly important. Being an important country in the Middle East, Saudi Arabia has contributed to solving many issues and conflicts in the Islamic world, he said.

He noted King Abdullah’s efforts to reconcile Palestinian groups by inviting them for a meeting in Makkah. “Germany intends to have a strong strategic partnership relation with Saudi Arabia, considering its vital position in the Arab and Islamic world and its economic weight.”

Saudi Ambassador to Berlin Dr. Osama Shubokshi said the royal visit would strengthen Saudi-German relations, which date back to more than 78 years. “King Abdullah’s visit has political, economic and cultural importance,” he added.

Shubokshi also spoke of the efforts to stop anti-Saudi smear campaigns in the Western press by removing misconceptions about the Saudi position on violence, extremism and terrorism. He said he refuted allegations against the Kingdom while taking part in a number of seminars.

Merkel Backs King’s Peace Initiatives (http://www.arabnews.com/?page=4&section=0&article=103298&d=8&m=11&y=2007)

King Abdullah pays visit to Turkey

11/09/2007 11:32

Saudi Arabia's King Abdullah arrived in Turkey for a visit. He discussed Iraq problems, Middle East peace and growing bilateral trade ties.

Abdullah's visit to Ankara is the last stop of a four-nation European tour, which included Britain, Italy and Germany. It is the king's second visit to Turkey in less than two years in a sign of Ankara's growing ties with the oil-rich kingdom.

Turkey has massed tens of thousands of its troops in the southeast of the country following a series of attacks by Iraq-based rebels of the Kurdistan Workers' Party, or PKK, that has left nearly 50 dead since September.

Turkey is facing international pressure to avoid a wide-scale cross border attack on PKK bases in northern Iraq, out of fear such an operation would destabilize what has been the calmest region in the country.

The Saudi king's visit is also taking place as Turkey is playing an increasing role in bringing together the sides in the Middle East conflict. Next week, Israeli President Simon Peres and Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas will both address Turkey's parliament.

Turkey is Israel's closest ally in the Islamic world and has been forging close ties with the Arab world over the past few years.

Last week, Foreign Minister Ali Babacan visited Arab nations, including Saudi Arabia, for talks on the Middle East peace efforts and to explain his country's military planning for an incursion into northern Iraq.

Arab governments have been trying to strike a balance amid the mounting crisis between Iraq and Turkey, seeking to avoid openly criticizing Ankara and urged dialogue between the two sides, a reflection of Arab countries' fears of a widening of the Iraq conflict.

The king was schedueld to meet Gul at the presidential palace, where he will be received in a ceremony with military honors and also hold talks with Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan. The king will be decorated with Turkey's highest state medal during his stay.

Abdullah last came to Turkey in August 2006. It was the first visit by a Saudi monarch in 40 years. Trade ties between the two countries have increased by threefold over the past five years, to reach US$3.3 billion, a statement from Gul's office said.

In Italy, Abdullah was received at the Vatican by Pope Benedict XVI in the first-ever meeting between a pontiff and reigning Saudi king, the protector of Islam's holiest sites. In Britain, the king discussed terrorism and the Middle East peace process with Prime Minister Gordon Brown.

King Abdullah pays visit to Turkey (http://newsfromrussia.com/news/world/09-11-2007/100594-Abdullah-0)

Reforms Will Make Saudi Arabia A True Ally
The New Republic: Regime's Current Policies Foster Terrorism, Islamic Extremism
Nov. 8, 2007

On October 19, in a letter to Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, President Bush declared, "I hereby certify that Saudi Arabia is cooperating with efforts to combat international terrorism and that the proposed assistance will help facilitate that effort." U.S. law requires this step to allow previously appropriated financial assistance to be delivered to Riyadh. But the President's certification comes amid debate over a much more consequential form of assistance to Saudi Arabia - a deal to sell $20 billion worth of arms to the kingdom and other Gulf states over ten years. First proposed in July and currently pending further action by the White House, the terms have met opposition in Congress, where concerns about the real level of Saudi commitment to fighting terrorism remain. A letter by Representative Anthony Weiner (D-NY), signed by a bipartisan group of 114 members of Congress, argues, "Saudi Arabia has not behaved like an ally of the United States. They have exported fighters and suicide bombers to the war in Iraq. They have provided funding for terrorist activities throughout the world."

But this, and most other recent criticisms of Saudi Arabia, omits what may be the most troubling aspect of the country's behavior and the most threatening to long-term U.S. interests: The appalling state of human rights and the lack of meaningful political reform in the kingdom. The problem is not that the Saudi regime directly encourages terrorist activity, as Weiner's letter suggests, but rather that the political situation in the country provides the conditions that spur disenchanted Saudis to violence. Surprisingly few U.S. politicians - and none of the leading presidential candidates - have raised this concern in response to the arms deal, even though Saudi repression isn't exactly a secret.

Empirical studies increasingly point to the lack of democracy as a key cause of terrorism. Drawing on the findings of their important 2003 study of terrorist attacks, Princeton's Alan Krueger and Czech scholar Jitka Malecková noted that "the only variable that was consistently associated with the number of terrorists was the Freedom House index of political rights and civil liberties." Their conclusion is a troubling one, particularly in a region where our closest allies in the war on terror are among the most repressive: "Countries with more freedom were less likely to be the birthplace of international terrorists." In a 2006 paper, Harvard University's Alberto Abadie uses a different data set of terrorist incidents, but confirms Krueger and Jitka Malecková's findings, observing that "lack of political freedom is shown to explain terrorism ... Over most of the range of the political right index, lower levels of political rights are associated with higher levels of terrorism."

The data strongly supports what has long been an intuitive argument - when legitimate avenues for expressing grievances and influencing policy are unavailable, people are more likely to resort to radicalism and political violence. In this context, it is hardly surprising that Saudi Arabia has been a main source of international terrorism - not only were 15 of the 19 September 11 hijackers Saudi, but, according to various reports, more suicide bombers and foreign fighters in Iraq are from Saudi Arabia than from any other country. The kingdom, a font of Wahhabi ideology and dominated by retrograde clerics, produces so many radicals that the regime has long followed a policy of funding militants to fight abroad rather than face their wrath at home. This practice dates to the early 1980s, when the royal family began issuing visas and providing other support to citizens willing to fight in Afghanistan, a strategy that diverted extremists away from the Arabian Peninsula.

The established link between tyranny and terror means that Saudi Arabia's internal political situation should be cause for much greater alarm. The country is among the world's most undemocratic, according to every respected independent assessment. Freedom House ranks the Saudi regime as one of the seventeen most repressive governments in the world. There is no "opposition" to speak of - political parties of any kind are banned. Human rights activists, and anyone else who publicly criticizes the regime, are routinely jailed, barred from foreign travel, and blacklisted in the press. Meanwhile, the notorious mutaww'in, or morality police, have broad discretion to harass anyone not meeting arbitrary standards of propriety. In one particularly tragic incident, the mutaww'in prevented rescuers from saving fifteen girls trapped in a burning school, because the students weren't wearing their headscarves. The introduction to a recent Amnesty International report states bluntly that "fear and secrecy permeate every aspect of the state in Saudi Arabia." It is a consistent, unambiguous picture drawn by nearly all international observers. Furthermore, most empirical studies show that it is political repression - not poverty or unemployment - that is most responsible for generating terrorism. In fact, many of those who have turned to extremism, including most of the 9/11 hijackers, have been relatively well-educated, and middle or upper-middle class.

That is not to say that there have been zero positive steps recently. The king has promised a huge increase in education spending and begun a review of textbooks to address concerns of fostering intolerance and extremism. And notably, the government recently announced a judicial reform plan which includes $2 billion for training judges and building new courts, as well as provisions for separate family, commercial, and criminal courts, and an appeals process. Perhaps most importantly, the reforms will create a Supreme Court which will be more independent from the religious establishment than its predecessor, the Supreme Judicial Council. The new Court will be staffed by the king rather than by ultraconservative clerics, and it may provide the first opportunity for reform-minded elites to influence the judiciary.

Despite these reforms, Saudi Arabia remains an absolute monarchy, in which the king is the highest judicial authority, able to rule by decree. Officially, the Koran is the Saudi constitution. A code of laws known as the "Basic Law" governs issues not discussed in the Koran, but its authority is subordinate to the monarchy and the religious establishment.

Other much-heralded reforms have been underwhelming. Even the 2005 municipal elections, lauded by the United States as a major step, saw little voter interest in an election for local councils with no real power. The move was a cosmetic gesture, meant to appease liberals and ease pressure for change. This is not a new story in the Middle East, where regimes have become increasingly adept at using piecemeal "reforms" to distract the international community and deflect citizen demands.

Yet policymakers should not mistake the difficulty of reform for the intractability of autocracy; America can leverage its support to shape Arab regimes' decisions on democratization. This is particularly true for the ruling al-Saud family, which is intimately tied to the U.S. and dependent on its military backing. The arms deal presents an opportunity for Washington to exert influence in Riyadh. This opening should be seized to push the Saudis along the path of reform, the only path that will lead to long-term security.

We have leverage, and we should use it. First, all arms sales should be contingent on the implementation of the promised educational and judicial reforms. Second, the United States should require progress on political reform, beginning with greater freedoms of press and assembly, and allowing public dissent on policy matters. Beyond this, deadlines should be set for long-awaited Shura (Consultative) Council elections, followed by benchmarks for the steady evolution of the council from an advisory role to a genuine legislative body. Third, transparency and fairness in the justice system, even when dealing with terror suspects, should be required. Such measures can be enforced much as Saudi cooperation on counterterrorism efforts is maintained today - through a certification process mandated by law.

Making assistance, and particularly large weapons deals, conditional upon clear, political reform benchmarks will not only offer hope for the beleaguered Saudi population, but also chip away at the repression that breeds the very terrorists whom we need the Saudis' help in fighting. Only then can Saudi Arabia be rightly considered a true ally in the fight against terror.

Reforms Will Make Saudi Arabia A True Ally (http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2007/11/08/opinion/main3472820.shtml)

King Abdullah of Jordan and Brown discuss Mideast, Iraq

Nov 8, 2007, 13:00 GMT

London - King Abdullah II of Jordan and British Prime Minister Gordon Brown discussed the forthcoming US-sponsored Middle East peace conference and the conflict in Iraq during a meeting in London, officials said Thursday.

The talks, which were followed by a dinner banquet Wednesday evening, were the highlight of a three-day private visit by the King and his wife, Queen Rania Al Abdullah, to Britain.

A statement released by the Jordanian embassy said King Abdullah had stressed that the upcoming conference in Annapolis, Maryland, should be a real 'starting point for negotiations within a specified timeframe.'

The international meeting should address final status issues, which, once resolved, would end the conflict between Palestinians and Israelis and establish a viable independent Palestinian state living in peace and security alongside Israel, said the statement.

The two men also discussed ways to support the Palestinian National Authority (PNA) and alleviate the 'difficult living conditions of the Palestinian people.'

In this regard, King Abdullah urged the international community to provide the support needed by the PNA to strengthen institutions and improve the services it provides to Palestinians.

The king emphasized the need to advance efforts to achieve national reconciliation in Iraq, adding that this process must be inclusive in order to succeed.

According to the statement, France will host a conference at the end of the year for donor countries to garner international political and financial support for the PNA.

Britain's former leader Tony Blair, who is now the special envoy of the so-called Middle East Quartet, is due to attend the conference.

King Abdullah also thanked Britain for its support of Jordanian efforts to ease its current external debt burden of more than 7 billion dollars, and urged the London government to back the 'establishment of an effective partnership between the G8 and G11 countries.'

King Abdullah of Jordan and Brown discuss Mideast, Iraq (http://news.monstersandcritics.com/middleeast/news/article_1372196.php/King_Abdullah_of_Jordan_and_Brown_discuss_Mideast_Iraq)

'Apocalyptic scenario' if Egypt, Saudi go nuclear: Israel minister

7 hours ago

JERUSALEM (AFP) — Egyptian and Saudi nuclear ambitions, on top of Iran's atomic drive, will lead to an "apocalyptic scenario", a senior Israeli cabinet minister said in comments published on Friday.

"If Egypt and Saudi Arabia begin nuclear programmes, this can bring an apocalyptic scenario upon us," Strategic Affairs Minister Avigdor Lieberman told the English-language Jerusalem Post newspaper.

"Their intentions should be taken seriously and the declarations being made now are to prepare the world for when they decide to actually do it," said the minister, responsible for coordinating Israeli efforts against a nuclear Iran.

On October 29, Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak announced a programme to build several nuclear power stations -- the country having abandoned an atomic energy programme in 1986 after the Chernobyl disaster.

Jordan, one of only two Arab countries with Egypt to have signed peace deals with Israel, as well as Algeria, Libya, Yemen and all six pro-Western Gulf states including Saudi Arabia have also announced peaceful nuclear ambitions.

Lieberman, who heads the ultra-nationalist Yisrael Beitenu party, also told the Jerusalem Post that Pakistan could pose a major threat to Israel.

"If the Taliban or (Al-Qaeda leader Osama) bin Laden get control (of Pakistan), they will have nuclear weapons for terror use and they don't hide their opinions about Israel," he said.

Lieberman also joined the chorus of Israeli criticism against the head of the UN nuclear watchdog, Mohamed ElBaradei, over comments from the Egyptian that Iran's nuclear acitivites pose no immediate danger.

"He is part of the problem, not part of the solution," said Lieberman, who is also a deputy prime minister.

Israel, which belongs to the UN nuclear watchdog but is not a signatory to its key Non-Proliferation Treaty, is widely considered to have the Middle East's sole -- if undeclared -- nuclear arsenal.

It considers Iran its chief enemy after repeated statements by President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad that the Jewish state should be wiped off the map.

Lieberman is known for extreme nationalist views.

He advocates a land swap in which Israel would annex its largest Jewish settlements built on occupied Palestinian land and transfer Israeli territory with a large Arab population to a future Palestinian state.

He also once sparked outrage by advocating the execution of Arab Israeli MPs who had dealings with Palestinian Islamist movement Hamas, which Israel considers a terrorist organisation but which controls the Gaza Strip.

'Apocalyptic scenario' if Egypt, Saudi go nuclear: Israel minister (http://afp.google.com/article/ALeqM5j9qYXMsHRbsLG0YMIUK9d-up9qvQ)

US worries rise over Pakistan crackdown

By MATTHEW ROSENBERG, Associated Press Writer 3 minutes ago

ISLAMABAD, Pakistan - Pakistan quickly ended house arrest for opposition leader Benazir Bhutto on Friday as President Gen. Pervez Musharraf came under new U.S. pressure to end a crackdown that Washington fears is hurting the fight against Islamic extremism.

Earlier in the day, police threw up barbed wire around Bhutto's house to keep her from speaking at a rally to protest Musharraf's imposition of emergency rule, and security forces rounded up thousands of her supporters to block any mass demonstrations.

The action was a new blow to hopes the two U.S.-friendly leaders could form an alliance against militants — a rising threat underlined by a suicide bombing in northwest Pakistan that targeted the home of a Cabinet minister, who escaped without injury.

Bhutto twice tried to evade authorities in her car, telling police who surrounded her villa: "Do not raise hands on women. You are Muslims. This is un-Islamic." Officers blocked the former prime minister's way with an armored vehicle.

In Rawalpindi, the nearby garrison town where she had hoped to stage the rally, police fired tear gas at hundreds of Bhutto loyalists who staged wildcat protests and hurled stones. More than 100 were arrested.

The Bush administration called for the restrictions on Bhutto to be lifted, and Pakistan's government said late Friday that she was again free to move about, although police barriers remained outside her house. Her supporters said she would try to leave Saturday morning.

In Washington, where some lawmakers are calling for aid to Pakistan to be curtailed, U.S. officials again criticized Musharraf's crackdown.

"We remain concerned about the continued state of emergency and curtailment of basic freedoms, and urge Pakistani authorities to quickly return to constitutional order and democratic norms," Gordon Johndroe, a spokesman for the National Security Council, said in a statement.

As Musharraf's chief international backer, the Bush administration is deeply concerned about the deteriorating situation in Pakistan, a nuclear-armed nation of 160 million people that is on the front lines of the U.S.-led campaign against terrorist groups.

The suspension of the constitution last weekend has intensified the anger of moderate and secular Pakistanis who have become increasingly frustrated with military rule. At the same time, Islamic militants with ties to the Taliban and al-Qaida are stepping up violence, including suicide bombings and fighting in the northwest along the border with Afghanistan.

Musharraf cited the gains by extremists in the frontier region as one of the main reasons for his emergency decree, saying political unrest was undermining the fight against militants.

On Friday, a suicide bomber blew himself up at the home of Minister for Political Affairs Amir Muqam in the northwestern city of Peshawar. Muqam was unhurt but four people died.

Defense Secretary Robert Gates said the turmoil could undermine the battle against Pakistani insurgents.

"The concern I have is that the longer the internal problems continue, the more distracted the Pakistani army and security services will be in terms of the internal situation rather than focusing on the terrorist threat in the frontier area," Gates told reporters while flying home from a weeklong visit to Asia.

Despite the government's attempt to squelch Pakistani news coverage of the unrest, some independent TV channels are finding ways to broadcast reports. Geo TV, for instance, transmits by satellite from a backup facility in the Persian Gulf and it streams video on the Internet.

Most of the thousands of people rounded up this week have been moderates — lawyers and activists from secular opposition parties, such as Bhutto's Pakistan People's Party. The detentions have fueled popular suspicions the embattled Musharraf declared the emergency to maintain his grip on power, which he has held since leading a coup in 1999.

Bhutto's detention, if only for a day, showed Musharraf has no intention of easing the crackdown despite saying Thursday that parliamentary elections would be held by mid-February, just a month later than originally planned. The announcement came after intense pressure from the U.S.

The move against Bhutto further harmed prospects for a Bhutto-Musharraf alliance that Washington has been pushing for.

"I worked out a road map with Gen. Musharraf for a peaceful transition to democracy and I'm very disappointed that though there is a peaceful way, he chose the nonpolitical path," Bhutto told a few dozen supporters after her second foiled attempt to get out of her villa.

Police kept a wary eye on her supporters, who repeatedly tried to remove the barbed wire and steel and concrete barriers ringing Bhutto's house. At least 30 of her loyalists were arrested, including a woman carrying flowers.

Dressed in a blue tunic and her trademark white head scarf, Bhutto twice tried to leave for Rawalpindi inside a white Landcruiser with tinted windows, surrounded by about 50 supporters, including several lawmakers.

After being turned back the second time, her way blocked by an armored vehicle, she got out of the car and joined her supporters, who chanted "Go, Musharraf, go!"

"I want to tell you to have courage because this battle is against dictatorship and it will be won by the people," Bhutto said as police stood guard nearby.

Her supporters said they would only be further emboldened by Friday's clampdown.

"We will not go away. Our party activists have been mobilized to move out and take to the streets," said Abida Hussain, a former ambassador to the United States.

US worries rise over Pakistan crackdown (http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20071110/ap_on_re_as/pakistan)

Diplomat denies Putin gave Iran secret message
Reuters
By Guy Faulconbridge Reuters - Wednesday, November 7 05:20 pm

MOSCOW (Reuters) - President Vladimir Putin gave Iran no secret messages about its disputed nuclear programme during a visit last month but pressed Tehran to resolve the issue through negotiations, a senior Russian diplomat said on Wednesday.

Ali Larijani, Iran's top nuclear negotiator at the time, was quoted by Iran's official news agency on October 17 as saying Putin gave Iranian leaders a "special message". He did not elaborate.

"There were no secret messages," Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Kislyak said when asked by Reuters about Putin's talks.

He said Putin pushed to resolve the Iranian problem through negotiations that stuck to the positions of the six-power mediators on Iran, the U.N. Security Council and the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).

"We are acting along with the common position of the six, common to the U.N. Security Council and common to the ruling council of the IAEA," Kislyak told reporters after a debate in the Russian parliament.

"Our position is to resolve all the problems through negotiations," he said, when asked about Russian policy on Iran.

Putin's visit to Tehran, the first trip to Iran by a Russian leader since Josef Stalin in 1943, raised speculation that Russia was seeking to find a compromise in the stand-off over Tehran's nuclear ambitions.

The United States, Israel and leading European Union countries suspect Iran is seeking to build a nuclear bomb under cover of its civilian atomic programme. Iran denies such intent.

Russia, a veto-wielding member of the Security Council, says there is no evidence that Tehran is seeking nuclear weapons and has held up Western efforts to impose harsher sanctions on Iran. Tehran says it has a right to its own peaceful nuclear energy.

Iran pledged in August to clear up IAEA questions about the secret development of its programme but still refuses to halt enrichment as demanded by the Security Council. The IAEA will report in mid-November on how much Iran has cooperated.

FEARS OF WIDER CONFLICT

Russian and international media speculated that Putin might have told Iran that if, it gave up nuclear enrichment, the United States would open direct talks with Tehran.

The Kremlin fears that a U.S. military strike against Iran would spark a wider conflict close to its southern borders.

Russia is helping to build Iran's first nuclear power plant at Bushehr, although it has delayed providing nuclear fuel.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov hinted during a visit to Tehran last month that Iran had so far failed to ease concerns in the IAEA about its nuclear programme.

Some analysts have speculated that Putin could be seeking to use Moscow's influence with Tehran to secure assurances from Washington over U.S. plans to deploy a missile defence shield in Europe and the future of Serbia's Kosovo province.

Kislyak dismissed suggestions of a wider deal. "...It is not very serious because, on every one of those problems, Russia has a independent and principled position, as presumably the American side also have," he said.

A diplomat close to the IAEA said its Director Mohamed ElBaradei had considered paying a visit to Tehran in the near future but decided the time was not right.

Diplomat denies Putin gave Iran secret message (http://uk.news.yahoo.com/rtrs/20071107/tpl-uk-nuclear-iran-russia-43a8d4f.html)

MAD MULLAHS PUZZLED PUTIN

November 9, 2007 -- 'EDUCATIONAL": That's how President Vladimir Putin's entourage described the Russian's recent whirlwind trip to Tehran.

Islamic Republic President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad hyped the 36-hour visit as a "historic event." Some Western commentators even suggested that Putin and Ahmadinejad planned to create an axis to counter Western influence in the Middle East.

In fact, the visit seems to have persuaded Putin and his closest advisers that the Tehran leadership is culturally and temperamentally incapable of playing the classical Cold War-style power games that the Russians are interested in.

"This was the first time that Putin was talking to senior Islamic Republic leaders in a substantive and focused way," says a senior Russian official familiar with what happened. "The president found his Iranian interlocutor weird, to say the least. The Iranians mouthed a lot of eschatological nonsense and came close to urging Putin to convert to Islam. It was clear they lived in a world of their own."

Russian sources say that both Ahmadinejad and "Supreme Guide" Ali Khamenei gave the impression that they settle matters "in the metaphysical space" and with "the help of the Hidden Imam."

"The Iranians think they have already won," reports one Russian source who witnessed the visit. "So intoxicated they appeared with hubris that they did not even ask Putin to help them ward off further United Nations sanctions."

Ahmadinejad gave the impression he sought neither advice nor support from the Russians. All he wanted was to project the Islamic Republic as the regional superpower and invite Putin to acknowledge its new status. "It was as if Russia needed Iran, not the other way round," says the Russian source. "Putin was taken aback. He had not expected what he heard."

Putin had brought with him a compromise formula to defuse the crisis over Iran's nuclear program: Moscow and Tehran would set up a joint enterprise to enrich uranium both on Iranian and Russian territory. In exchange, Moscow would transfer to Tehran more advanced scientific and technological data and build up to 20 nuclear-power stations in Iran over two decades. But he decided to abandon his game plan: "When it became clear that we were talking to the wall, there was no point in attempts at creative diplomacy," says the Russian source.

But why is Putin's entourage leaking the information about his trip to Tehran?

Conspiracy theorists might claim that the Russian leader, ordered the leaks (via French, German and British journalists) to soothe European nerves frayed by what many saw as a Russian bid to bolster the Islamic Republic. Yet several factors suggest that the Russian claims are more than a cynical ploy.

To start with, Putin appears to have discussed his proposed compromise only with Khamenei and not with Ahmadinejad. Even then, the official accounts on both sides clearly indicate that there was no discussion. Putin just spelled out some "broad ideas," and Khamenei responded by saying that he would "think about what you have said." Ahmadinejad went further by announcing that Putin hadn't raised "any new ideas."

Then there's the fact that, only days after his Tehran visit, Putin instructed the Russian delegation at a session of the Five Plus One group (the permanent members of the U.N. Security Council plus Germany) to agree to devise new sanctions against Iran.

Even more interesting are things that Putin did not do.

Ahmadinejad had announced that the Russian visitor would announce a clear date for the years-delayed completion of Iran's first, and so far only, nuclear plant, which is being built near Bushehr by a Russian company. But Putin refused to fix a new date, stating that inauguration would depend on "resolving other matters," code words for the dispute over Iran's uranium-enrichment program.

Putin also didn't give Iran the scientific code for the type of enriched uranium that the Bushehr plant would need as fuel. Iran says it's enriching uranium for a yet-to-be-completed plant without knowing exactly what type of fuel is required. The Russian refusal to provide the codes makes the Iranian claim sound more unconvincing.

And Putin refused to announce a long-promised scheme under which Russia would train hundreds of Iranian scientists and technicians, thus giving Iran access to all aspects of nuclear technology.

Another sign of Putin's disappointment: his last-minute decision not to issue an invitation to Ahmadinejad for a state visit to Moscow. The Iranians had worked hard to secure the invite and were visibly disappointed when it didn't materialize.

None of this means that Putin won't use the Islamic Republic in his power game against the Western democracies. But his trip may have helped him understand the limits of playing the Khomeinist card. A member of Putin's entourage sums up the Russian leader's visit to Tehran: "He came, he saw, he was dismayed!"

MAD MULLAHS PUZZLED PUTIN (http://www.nypost.com/seven/11092007/postopinion/opedcolumnists/mad_mullahs_puzzled_putin_198418.htm?page=0)

Russia Reasserts Power with Thermobaric Weapons and Bomber Runs''
08 November 2007

During the past few months, the Russian Federation has implemented a new doctrine of increased military activity, as well as the development of new thermobaric bombs. There are a number of political implications for Russia's close neighbors and for the international community.

The renewed bomber runs, which have been a regular occurrence since June 2007, have skirted U.S., British, and Norwegian airspace. Besides their provocative nature, Russia has not violated any international laws since the bombers have never entered the airspace of another country. Instead, the bombers have remained in international airspace, and only come close to U.S., British, and Norwegian airspace.

Nevertheless, the bombers have caused sufficient concern, as has been seen by the scrambling of Norwegian, British, and U.S. interceptors to "escort" the Russian bombers back toward Russian airspace. The perception of these flights has been summed up by Gene Renuart, commander of the North American Aerospace Defense Command (N.O.R.A.D.), who told the media last month that "any time you have an unidentified aircraft approaching sovereign airspace of the country there's some concern about the intentions of the airplane."

The statement from Renuart encompasses the concerns of the political and military elite in the West. The return of the bomber runs has many of the older members of the Western political and military elite reminiscing about the days of the Cold War. This unnerve in the West is exactly what the Russians want, as Moscow is using the bomber runs in order to extend their influence over their neighbors, and to achieve leverage from their political adversaries in the West.

Another change in the military spectrum of the Russian Federation is the recent development of the so called "Father of All Bombs," or F.O.A.B. Aside from the obvious play on words used on the U.S. military's "Mother of All Bombs" (M.O.A.B.; the acronym was originally derived from the technical name, Massive Ordinance Air Blast), the F.O.A.B. represents an explosive leap forward in non-nuclear weaponry, especially in the field of thermobaric weaponry. [See: "Keep a Watchful Eye on Russia's Military Technology"]

The F.O.A.B. is allegedly four times as powerful, and produces an explosion that is twice as hot, as the next most powerful thermobaric weapon, the aforementioned M.O.A.B. It is also interesting to note the rhetoric involved with the name of the new bomb; while the United States may have the Mother of All Bombs, the Russians want everyone to know that they have the Father of All Bombs.

Thermobaric weaponry is classified by the use of atmospheric oxygen, instead of carrying an oxidizer, like most conventional explosives. Thermobarics produce a far greater explosion, and therefore are more destructive than other conventional explosives, but are much less predictable. This flaw does not make them less desirable than more accurate weapons, for they are used when attacking certain stationary targets, such as airports and troop formations, where high levels of precision are not necessary.

Perhaps the greatest strength of the thermobaric weapon is its ability to create a large explosion that affects the surrounding area, making it the perfect weapon for massive bombing campaigns against strategic targets. Evidence of this can be found in the use of thermobarics by the United States in Afghanistan, and the Russian use of thermobarics against the Chechen capital of Grozny in the second Chechen War (some experts believe that the U.S. "Daisy Cutter" used in Vietnam was a thermobaric bomb, and there are also reports of Russian use during the Russian-Sino border conflict in 1969).

There are a number of interests driving Russia's redefined military doctrine.

First, the enlargement of N.A.T.O.'s power into the border countries surrounding Russia has stoked fears in the Russian military and political hierarchy, who feel the need to reassert their power in the region.

While N.A.T.O. is no longer seen as the "arch-enemy" that it represented to the Soviet Union, there is still residual unrest concerning N.A.T.O. and the United States in the Russian security apparatus, which still includes officers who were in positions of command in the Red Army while the Soviet Union was still in existence.

This fear has also been stoked after the U.S.-led N.A.T.O. intervention in Bosnia and Herzegovina. It is not difficult to imagine the Russian military and political elite being concerned after two powers, that had once so vigorously opposed it, took military action in a region considered to be within Russia's sphere of influence. It is possible that Russia has decided to "remind" the United States and N.A.T.O. that even though the Iron Curtain has fallen, the Russian Federation is still a power with which to be reckoned.

Second, the constant perceived threat in Chechnya most likely has some effect on the development of new weaponry, especially the new advances made in the form of the new thermobaric weaponry. Russia has illustrated that it has no reservations in using thermobarics, or using them against civilian targets, as was shown in the second Chechen war when they used the TOS-1 system in order to strike at the Chechen capital, Grozny.

Third, one theme that seems to tie together much of Russia's policies and actions is also involved in the renewal of bomber runs and the new technological advances. Russia is set upon a course of gaining an energy monopoly, and has already set up a very effective infrastructure for transporting oil and natural gas into the Eastern European energy market. The new military developments are a show of power, as the bombers demonstrate that Russia can extend its influence, and back it up with force if necessary.

The recent testing of the F.O.A.B. is a potent show of power by the Russian military. By making public the testing of the new weapon, which is four times as powerful as Washington's nearest non-nuclear weapon, the Russian Federation has displayed its preeminence in Eastern Europe. This showing of force encourages submission from Russia's neighboring states, especially from those that have shown friendship toward the United States, such as Georgia. It also demonstrates that it is in their best interests to work with Russia on building an energy monopoly in and around Eastern Europe.

The development of these weapons and the re-institution of strategic bomber runs may represent a new era for the Russian Federation, one where Moscow increasingly attempts to demonstrate that it has the military means to seize and hold what it perceives to be its vital interest at home and abroad.

Russia Reasserts Power with Thermobaric Weapons and Bomber Runs'' (http://www.pinr.com/report.php?ac=view_report&report_id=717&language_id=1)

Israel fears European countries might 'downsize' from UNIFIL

Yaakov Katz
THE JERUSALEM POST
Nov. 8, 2007

Concerns are mounting in the Israeli defense establishment over the possibility that European countries which contribute military forces to UNIFIL might begin to gradually reduce their participation in the peacekeeping force over the coming year, defense officials have told The Jerusalem Post.

According to the officials, the political instability in Lebanon on the one hand, and the growing threats in southern Lebanon against the UN force by Hizbullah as well as al-Qaida elements on the other, could cause European countries to reconsider the extent of their participation in the peacekeeping force.

UNIFIL was significantly enlarged - from a force of 2,000 troops to over 13,000 - following the Second Lebanon War Israel fought against Hizbullah in the summer of 2006.

Germany, for example, is scheduled to concede command of the UNIFIL naval contingent in February. While Germany will continue to serve as a UNIFIL member, Israeli officials said they were concerned that the move was the first step in the country's plan to downsize its involvement.

Defense officials from a number of European countries confirmed that their governments were currently debating the issue and that it was possible that the UNIFIL force would not remain at its current strength in the years to come. Some officials went as far as to predict that if the political situation in Lebanon resolved itself and stabilized, there may "no longer be a need for UNIFIL at all."

The concern over the fate of UNIFIL was reportedly recently raised by the force commander Maj.-Gen. Claudio Graziano, who was quoted as warning Lebanese leaders he met in Beirut last week that the tension in the south and a deepening political crisis in the country might prompt European countries "to withdraw from UNIFIL within less than four months."

In addition to the concerns over the future of UNIFIL, the IDF has recently lodged informal complaints with several European countries over the fact that their forces are, according to Israel, involved more in protecting themselves from terror groups in southern Lebanon than in fulfilling their mission of preventing weapons smuggling and Hizbullah buildup.

On Tuesday, Brig.-Gen. Yossi Baidatz, head of Military Intelligence's research division, told a Knesset committee that Hizbullah was learning to adapt to the new reality in southern Lebanon where UNIFIL operates.

According to defense officials, since the deaths of six Spanish soldiers in a terror attack in June, UNIFIL has been investing most of its resources in self-protection at the expense of conducting its missions.

"Hizbullah is gaining from this situation," an official said.

Israel fears European countries might 'downsize' from UNIFIL (http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?cid=1192380772139&pagename=JPost%2FJPArticle%2FPrinter)

Uncertainty Over Putin Succession Fuels 'Siloviki War'
By Brian Whitmore
Russia – Cityscape – Views of the Kremlin, Moscow, 5Jul2006
(ITAR-TASS)
November 9, 2007 (RFE/RL) -- Konstantin Druzenko and Sergei Lomako were out last month for a long night of drinking at a St. Petersburg cafe. Early the next morning, their dead bodies were found in a ditch.

But these weren't ordinary drunks who passed out and died in the frigid Russian night. Druzenko was an officer with Russia's Federal Antinarcotics Service and Lomako a former colleague there. Police say both were poisoned.

Adding to the mystery, their October 27 deaths came in the midst of a nasty and protracted turf battle between rival clans of KGB and security-service veterans in Vladimir Putin's Kremlin. This "war of the siloviki" -- Russian slang for members or veterans of the security services -- pits a bureaucratic clique led by Federal Antinarcotics Service head Viktor Cherkesov, the two men's boss, against another led by Putin's powerful deputy chief of staff, Igor Sechin.

Police say they are still investigating the deaths, while insisting the poisonings were unconnected to the men's work. But some Kremlin-watchers, like Vladimir Pribylovsky, head of the Moscow-based Panorama think tank, believe otherwise.

"This is connected," Pribylovsky told RFE/RL. "I have few doubts that this happened in the context of the [siloviki] war. And I don't see peace breaking out."

Battle Of The Clans

Whether or not there is a connection -- and the evidence at this point is largely circumstantial -- speculation about the deaths highlights mounting concerns that the high-stakes battle for power and influence among the Kremlin's siloviki clans might be spinning out of control. The power struggle, analysts say, is largely being fueled by mounting uncertainty -- and growing apprehension -- over what will happen when Putin's term ends next year.

"The entire political system of Russia today is a struggle of various clans and groups fighting to see that Putin stays in power according to their scenario and not according to the scenario of their competitors," Mikhail Delyagin, who served as an economic adviser under former Prime Minister Mikhail Kasyanov, recently told the news weekly "Itogi."

In this atmosphere, Cherkesov and his ally Viktor Zolotov, the head of the presidential security service, are trying to increase their power in the Kremlin at the expense of Sechin and his ally, Federal Security Service (FSB) chief Nikolai Patrushev.

Related to this struggle for political power are the two sides' conflicting commercial interests as they vie for control of Russia's customs points. Such powers offer the possibility of collecting protection payments from firms engaged in smuggling and money laundering.

"Cherkesov's group is...the weakest among the siloviki," says Andrei Soldatov, editor in chief of the online magazine agentura.ru and an expert on the security services. "Therefore, Cherkesov is trying to change this situation."

Soldatov and other analysts say one way Cherkesov is seeking to turn the tables is by gaining control of the newly formed Investigative Committee -- a powerful law-enforcement agency that has assumed many of the functions of the Prosecutor-General's Office. The Investigative Committee is currently headed by Aleksandr Bastrykin, who is allied with Sechin and Patrushev.

Proposals are being floated to unify Russia's myriad security, intelligence, and law-enforcement services under the Investigative Committee -- making control of the agency a key asset at a time of increased political uncertainty.

"If Cherkesov gets control of this new agency, then [his group] will become much stronger. If not, then they become marginalized. This is what the fight is over," Soldatov says, adding that Cherkesov is also angling to be appointed Security Council secretary.

Airing Dirty Laundry

Such jockeying for advantage has always been a feature of Putin's Kremlin, but it was a relatively low-intensity contest hidden from public view.

That all changed in October, when FSB agents arrested General Aleksandr Bulbov, Cherkesov's right-hand man at the Federal Antinarcotics Agency, after a tense standoff at Moscow's Domodedovo Airport.

A former security-service official familiar with the situation told "The Moscow Times" that there was "nearly a fight" at the airport when heavily armed FSB and Investigative Committee officials attempted to arrest Bulbov, who was being protected by Federal Antinarcotics Service agents.

Bulbov has been charged with illegally tapping telephones and accepting protection money.

In late August, Cherkesov and Zolotov suffered another blow when police arrested St. Petersburg businessman Vladimir Barsukov, who is reputed to have ties to both men, on suspicion of organizing contract killings.

Barsukov -- previously known as Vladimir Kumarin -- is a former vice president of the Petersburg Fuel Company who was once alleged to be the leader of an infamous criminal gang known as the Tambov Gang. According to media reports, prosecutors are investigating Zolotov's ties to Barsukov.

Cherkesov responded to Bulbov's arrest by publishing an open letter warning that Kremlin rivalries were on the verge of breaking into open conflict that could threaten Russia's stability.

Putin chastised Cherkesov publicly for breaking one of the key tenets of his usually tight-lipped ruling elite -- never air dirty laundry in public. But in a move characteristic of Putin's tendency to try to keep a balance of power among the top elite, the president then boosted Cherkesov's status by putting him in charge of a newly formed intergovernmental commission to fight illegal drugs.

A group of retired security officials -- including Vladimir Kruchkov, the last Soviet KGB chief -- published their own open letter in the nationalist newspaper "Zavtra" in October, urging the two sides to stop fighting. "Trust us from our experience," they wrote. "There will be major troubles and this is unacceptable."

For his part, Bulbov denies the charges against him and calls his arrest revenge for his role in a high-profile investigation last year of the Tri Kita company -- a large Moscow furniture business that was allegedly paying the FSB to turn its back as vast quantities of goods were smuggled into Russia without being subjected to customs duties.

cont'd next post

The case resulted in the resignation of several high-ranking FSB officials and that of Prosecutor-General Vladimir Ustinov, a close ally of Sechin, in June 2006.

Putin As Arbiter

The battle has intensified, analysts say, as uncertainty mounts over what will happen when Putin's second presidential term ends next year. Putin insists he will not change the constitution to allow him to serve a third term, but he is nevertheless widely expected to maintain power in some form.

"The presidential transition lacks a lot of clarity about the composition of authority in the future, the separation of powers, how power is transferred, about who the successor will be," said Andrei Ryabov, a political analyst at the Moscow Carnegie Center.

Over the past two months, the succession drama has indeed become increasingly muddled.

Initially, Putin was expected to anoint a loyal successor who would easily win the March 2008 presidential election. First Deputy Prime Ministers Sergei Ivanov and Dmitry Medvedev were considered the prime contenders for Putin's coveted blessing. But those assumptions changed dramatically on September 12, when Putin unexpectedly passed over both and instead named the obscure Viktor Zubkov as his prime minister -- a post widely viewed as a stepping stone to the presidency.

The shock appointment suggested that the heretofore unknown bureaucrat Zubkov might be Putin's handpicked successor, and led to widespread speculation about another scenario -- that the next president would be a weak caretaker who would resign after a respectable period. This, in turn, would provide Putin a legal avenue to return to the Kremlin by circumventing the constitutional restriction preventing presidents from serving more than two consecutive terms.

Those theories were weakened when the Russian president dropped another bombshell. On October 1, Putin announced that he not only planned to head the pro-Kremlin Unified Russia party's candidates list in the December State Duma elections, but that he would also consider serving as prime minister. This sparked a new wave of conjecture that real political power in Russia would be transferred to a "super premiership" -- while the presidential post would become largely symbolic.

But just weeks later, on October 18, Putin diluted that scenario by saying he opposed increasing the government's powers or decreasing those of the president.

Given the uncertainty of their political security, key members of the Kremlin elite are fighting to ensure that their interests are protected.

"Their main interest is the future composition of the ruling elite," Ryabov said. "They depend on the president...and they need some kind of guarantee that their influence and positions will be maintained under the new president. And it is obvious that their interests conflict, which makes it hard to find consensus."

Ryabov added, however, that he believes that the top elite's "common interests" and "corporate camaraderie" will in the end prove stronger than their divisions -- as long Putin remains in charge to keep the peace.

"With such countervailing forces, the system cannot regulate itself," Ryabov said. "It cannot resolve these conflicts through two-sided negotiations. An arbiter is always necessary and this is the role Putin is playing. And this is the key role."

According to Ryabov, the elite views the various schemes that have been floated to keep Putin in power as too risky, making the idea of changing the constitution to allow for a third term look increasingly attractive -- despite the president's public protestations to the contrary.

Many cities, including Moscow, have held rallies and meetings over the past three weeks to form local chapters of a new organization called For Putin! to urge that he remain in power. The group, which many observers say is a Kremlin creation, plans to hold an All-Russian Forum in Tver on November 15, just two weeks before the State Duma elections.

"The idea of a third term has been pulled back out of the archives, where it was placed a few months ago, and has returned to the center of the agenda since the end of October. I think this is no accident," Ryabov said. "This idea is alive. This idea is interesting again."

Uncertainty Over Putin Succession Fuels 'Siloviki War' (http://www.rferl.org/featuresarticle/2007/11/b087e127-13c7-41fb-ac48-e1a89cd11b23.html)

Georgian Parliament Confirms Emergency Rule

MOSCOW, Saturday, Nov. 10 — The Georgian Parliament approved a state of emergency decree on Friday issued by President Mikheil Saakashvili on Wednesday, allowing emergency rule for as long as 15 days despite calls from inside and outside the country for the restoration of personal and political rights.

The vote was 149 to 0 in a session of the 235-seat Parliament that the opposition boycotted.

The approval was a rebuff to international organizations that called for the decree to be lifted and to foreign governments, including the Bush administration, which until this week had championed Georgia as an example of a post-Soviet state undergoing bold democratic reforms.

The United States expressed swift dismay at the decision of Parliament, which is under Mr. Saakashvili’s control. A senior American diplomat said he was departing Washington this afternoon to fly to Tbilisi, the Georgian capital, to help mediate the crisis.

Matthew J. Bryza, deputy assistant secretary of state for European and Eurasian affairs, said by telephone that he would meet with Mr. Saakashvili on Saturday and deliver a clear message from Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice. “I plan to tell the government that it needs to lift the state of emergency immediately,” Mr. Bryza said. “It is a big disappointment.

“This is a very serious moment,” he added. “This is a moment of truth.”

Mr. Bryza said that he would also meet the opposition leaders and ask them to refrain from inflammatory language and to negotiate constructively. In a clear sign to Mr. Saakashvili and his government that the American support they have enjoyed since coming to power in 2003 is not unequivocal, Mr. Bryza added that he hoped to give a message to the Georgian people.

“We care about Georgia and Georgian democracy, and frankly I love that country,” he said. “But it is about democracy in Georgia that we care. ”

The Parliament met as the country’s prosecutors announced that they had opened a criminal investigation against Badri Patarkatsishvili, a wealthy Georgian who had pledged financial support to the opposition, on the ground that he had plotted to overthrow the state.

Mr. Patarkatsishvili, who has been in Israel this week, was on an airplane Friday and not immediately available for comment, a member of his staff said.

Mr. Saakashvili issued the emergency decree on Wednesday night after a police crackdown on an opposition demonstration sowed unrest in Tbilisi, the country’s capital, and led to demonstrations and clashes with the police later in the day. The West maintains that there is credible evidence, including photographs, video and eyewitness accounts, that the police used disproportionate force, and chased and beat many demonstrators who did not resist or had run away.

The presidential decree banned public assembly, limited political speech and banned independent news television broadcasts. The police also seized the offices and smashed broadcasting equipment at the country’s most popular station, the opposition Imedi-TV, which remained entirely off the air on Friday.

Giga Bokeria, a member of Parliament and a close ally to the president, said by telephone that the station was now also under criminal investigation, accused of collaborating with Mr. Patarkatsishvili and actively inciting unrest, and had little prospect of reopening. Even when the state of emergency ends, he said, the station would be under sanction. “Imedi is a separate issue,” he said by telephone.

Under Georgian law, the state of emergency decree required parliamentary approval within 48 hours. The vote on Friday, with only a few hours remaining, allowed the extension of emergency rule to Nov. 22, giving Mr. Saakashvili the option of exercising the full 15-day period allowed by the country’s laws.

The speaker of Parliament, Nino Burdjanadze, said the order could not yet be lifted because there had been a coup attempt and the state remained at risk.

“The threat that existed until now is still present despite the calm that has been restored,” she said, according to news agency reporters present at the session.

cont'd next post

On Thursday, Mr. Saakashvili and other government officials had said that the state of emergency could end soon. Mr. Bokeria said Friday that the government would almost certainly revisit the decision before Nov. 22. “We are sure that it will be lifted sooner,” he said after the vote.

The government’s actions were denounced at home, and a news anchor who works at the closed Imedi-TV accused the government of deliberately destroying the station.

“We understand that the main aim of the government and the special forces was not to stop our broadcast but to crash and break everything inside our station and terrorize the staff,” said the anchorman, Giorgi Targamadze, by telephone. “If they wanted us to stop our broadcast, they could have given us one piece of paper about the emergency order. We are very loyal to the Constitution and we would have stopped broadcasting.”

Mr. Targamadze, who on Wednesday night had broadcast live briefly as the station was seized by the police, said the station’s archive was also destroyed or removed. He dismissed the government’s allegations that the station had called for illegal actions. “All the people in Georgia, even international organizations who are monitoring our broadcasts, know that is fully false information,” he said.

In a bid to end the crisis and test his own standing, Mr. Saakashvili on Thursday had announced on national public television that new presidential elections would be held on Jan. 5, saying he needed a new mandate from Georgia’s people to continue to serve.

He also said that a national referendum would be held the same day to determine whether parliamentary elections should be held next spring or next fall. The opposition greeted the decision for snap elections as a sign that Mr. Saakashvili recognized that both the legitimacy of his government and the stability of Georgia were at stake, but also expressed worries about the potential for a fair and open vote.

The confirmation of the state of emergency was treated in Washington and in Tbilisi as a backward step. Mr. Bryza, the deputy assistant secretary of state, said that lifting the state of emergency immediately and restoring all independent television broadcasting was necessary for the legitimacy of the upcoming elections. “These steps are crucial for ensuring that the elections are free and fair,” he said.

He also said that he would urge the opposition, which has asked the United States to list the government as a terrorist organization, and carried signs of Mr. Saakashvili with a Hitler-style mustache, to negotiate civilly. “Dubbing a president a dictator or terrorist — that is not constructive,” he said.

Mr. Targamadze said Georgia’s citizens, who would have trouble hearing Mr. Bryza’s remarks because of the broadcasting restrictions, would welcome Washington’s position as word of it circulated through the country.

“It is very important for us,” he said. “The most important thing on our mind in Georgia, and I am very afraid, is that all of these bad things and crucial things that are happening in Georgia are associated with the United States. I know this is not true. But it is very hard for the people who are in Georgia to understand this because they see that the United States as Georgia’s main foreign partner.”

Until the government’s moves this week, Georgia had been embraced by Washington as a nation in difficult corner of the world that dared to pursue ambitious reforms. Mr. Saakashvili, who himself rose to power on peaceful demonstrations in 2003, known as the Rose Revolution, had led his government through an effort to gain entrance to NATO and the European Union, and had assumed the role of a champion of democracy and political freedom in the Caucasus.

He secured strong relations with the Bush administration in part by sending thousands of Georgian soldiers to the American-led coalition in Iraq, and has pledged to send a smaller contingent to Afghanistan next spring. Educated at Columbia University and fluent in several languages, including English, he has been a frequent contributor to editorial pages in Western newspapers, where he has written about democratic values and scolded corrupt and autocratic governments elsewhere.

President Bush visited the country in 2005, and addressed a massive crowd in the capital’s former Lenin Square, where he praised the country’s progress. It was the first visit by an American president to Georgia, and left a stamp of American approval on the Saakashvili government, which renamed a main road after Mr. Bush.

Mr. Bryza made clear that the enduring state of emergency in Tbilisi, and the suppression of the media, has called into question both Mr. Saakashvili’s credibility and Georgia’s standing on the Western stage. He said that Georgia a might yet recover its international standing as a state seeking reform and access to Western institutions, but that the government would have to act decisively and clearly.

“They have a chance to turn things around if there is absolute clarity that whatever vote there is free and fair, and they restore momentum on democratic reform,” he said. “Then one could make the case that Georgia had weathered a serious hiccup, and democracy is vibrant. But that is a big ‘if.’

“We are counting on President Saakashvili to show the same vision and leadership that he showed during the Rose Revolution,” Mr. Bryza added. “The country is anxious for that kind of leadership now.”

Tbilisi was calmer on Friday and the police presence much lighter than Thursday, when platoons roamed the streets. But resident complained of an absence of information because of the ban on independent media.

There was at least one sign of misgivings within Mr. Saakashvili’s government as well. Levan Mikeladze, the ambassador from Georgia to Switzerland and its head of mission to international organizations in Geneva, released a public letter announcing his resignation.

Georgian Parliament Confirms Emergency Rule (http://www.nytimes.com/2007/11/10/world/europe/10georgia.html?_r=1&hp&oref=slogin)

Georgian Orthodox Patriarch Mediating Crisis
By Peter Fedynsky

09 November 2007

Fedynsky report - Download MP3 (677k) (http://www.voanews.com/mediaassets/english/2007_11/Audio/mp3/Fedynsky%20GEORGIA%20PATRIARCH_09Nov071.mp3)

The Parliament of Georgia has unanimously approved President Saakashvili's 15-day state of emergency following preliminary government and opposition reconciliation talks under the auspices of the country's Orthodox Patriarch. VOA Correspondent Peter Fedynsky has this report from Tbilisi.

Approval of the 15-day state of emergency was unanimous thanks to a boycott by 101 opposition lawmakers. This allowed the remaining 149 pro-government deputies to vote as one in favor of the controversial measure, which will keep independent news broadcasts off the air until the state of emergency is lifted. President Saakashvili has the option of ending it sooner.

The Georgian leader announced the state of emergency on Wednesday after riot troops used force to break up anti-government demonstrations in Tbilisi.

Also Friday, the Patriarch of the Georgian Orthodox Church, Ilia II, held separate meetings in Tbilisi with representatives of the government and opposition in hopes of reconciling the two sides.

Pro-government lawmaker Khatuna Gogorishvili participated. In remarks to the VOA, she said the Patriarch is an individual that appeals to reason, not emotions.

Unfortunately, says Gogorishvili, some of our colleagues from the opposition understand the words dialogue and talks as ultimatum. To sit behind a table with them does not mean we agree with all of their demands.

Opposition members agree with Gogorishvili about the issue of consensus. But Goga Khaindrava, who met with the Patriarch as an opposition representative, told VOA that the government is standing in the way of a dialogue. Khaidrava was President Saakashvili's former Conflict Resolutions Minister.

Khaindrava says the president's words usually amount to public relations. He told the entire world he'll do this, that and the other, but repressions against our colleagues continue nevertheless.

The former presidential ally said the opposition will only talk with Saakashvili under the condition that the first meeting be held in the presence of Patriarch Ilia. Speaking to reporters after talks with both sides, the Church leader praised the decision to hold early presidential elections.

The president's smart decision to hold early elections relieves mounting tensions in Georgia. Ilia also called on Georgians to maintain the peace and to speak properly with one another.

The date of Georgia's presidential election was a major factor in six days of opposition protests in Tbilisi. The opposition wanted the date moved up from November to March. The president initially refused, but then went even further, setting the date for January 5. This gives the opposition little time to agree on a candidate and to mount a campaign. Some analysts say this will favor the president, but former minister Khaindrava says Mr. Saakashvili is so discredited that the opposition will win the election.

Georgian Orthodox Patriarch Mediating Crisis (http://www.voanews.com/english/2007-11-09-voa48.cfm)

Israel training intensively for nuclear strike on Iranian nuclear plants
By Reuven Koret November 10, 2007

With no alternative but to fight fire with fire, the Israel Air Force is training for a tactical nuclear strike on Iranian nuclear production facilities. As hope fades for a diplomatic solution to Iran's development of enriched uranium for production of weapons with the primary purpose of destroying Israel, the IAF is practicing for a mission to destroy key Iranian facilities, at least one with low-yield nuclear munitions, the Times of London reported.

Citing "several Israeli sources," the Times said that two IAF squadrons are training to blow up an Iranian facility using a combination of precision laser bombs and low-yield nuclear "bunker-busters". The Times report was supplemented by one from Fox News.

The attack would be the first with nuclear weapons since 1945, when the United States dropped atomic bombs on the Japanese cities Hiroshima and Nagasaki. The Israeli weapons would each have a force equivalent to one-fifteenth of the Hiroshima bomb, the Times said.

Under the plans, the report said, conventional laser-guided bombs would open shafts into the targets. Then the "mini-nukes" would then be fired into a plant at Natanz, exploding deep underground to reduce the risk of radioactive fallout.

"As soon as the green light is given, it will be one mission, one strike and the Iranian nuclear project will be demolished," said one of the sources.

Israeli intelligence recently announced that Iran is on the verge of producing enough enriched uranium to make nuclear weapons by 2009. Meir Dagan, head of Mossad, the Israeli intelligence service, told the Knesset, Israel's parliament, also believes that the Iranians will have a complete nuclear device by 2009.

Conventional strikes, IDF commanders believe, are insufficient to destroy the deeply buried enrichment facilities, which are reportedly built beneath at least 70 feet of concrete and rock and surrounded by dozens of Iranian anti-aircraft batteries.

Israel has identified three prime targets south of Tehran believed to be central to Iran's nuclear program, the Times reported:

Natanz, where thousands of centrifuges are being installed for uranium enrichment;

A uranium conversion facility near Isfahan where, according to a statement by an Iranian vice-president last week, 250 tons of gas for the enrichment process have been stored; because this is located near a city of 4.5 million people, Israeli may opt to use conventional munitions here.

A heavy water reactor at Arak, which may in future produce enough plutonium for a bomb.

Israeli officials believe that destroying all three sites would delay Iran's nuclear program for years and prevent the Jewish State from living in fear of a "second Holocaust," a mounting threat since Iranian president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, has been declaring that "Israel must be wiped off the map" and promoting the desirability of "a world without Israel."

Dr. Ephraim Sneh, the former deputy Israeli defense minister, said last month: "The time is approaching when Israel and the international community will have to decide whether to take military action against Iran." But he lamented that "At the end of the day it is always down to the Jews to deal with the problem."

But the United States is believed to be backing away from military action in Iran, and the new US defense secretary, Robert Gates, has described a strike against Iranian targets as a "last resort", leading Israelis to believe that it will be left to the IAF to strike. Israeli sources do not believe that the US is likely to give explicit permission for Israel to use tactical nukes.

The Times, citing Israeli sources, said Israeli pilots have flown to Gibraltar in recent weeks to train for the 2,000-mile round trip to the Iranian targets.

The report said that the air force squadrons are based at Hatzerim in the Negev desert and Tel Nof, south of Tel Aviv, under the personal supervision of Major General Eliezer Shkedy, commander of the Israeli Air Force, training to use Israel's arsenal of tactical nuclear weapons on the mission.

The strike is expected to release nuclear material from the plants, rendering the facilities uninhabitable and crippling their reconstruction.

The Israelis believe that Iran's expected retaliation would be constrained by fear of an Israeli second strike.

The leak of a possible nuclear option by Israel may be intentional, US analysts have said. "In the cold war, we made it clear to the Russians that it was a virtual certainty that nukes would fly and fly early," said an American defense source. "Israel may be adopting the same tactics: 'You produce a weapon; you die'."

Israel training intensively for nuclear strike on Iranian nuclear plants (http://web.israelinsider.com/Articles/Security/12333.htm)

Iran, Armenia Sign Defense Cooperation Memo

TEHRAN (Fars News Agency)- The defense chiefs of Armenia and Iran signed a memorandum on cooperation between the two countries' military departments in Yerevan on Thursday.

Armenia's Defense Minister Mikael Harutiunian and his Iranian counterpart Major General Mostafa Mohammad Najjar stressed the importance of the event for the two countries' future cooperation after signing the document.

"I find it necessary to mention once again that the consistent policy in this issue will be consolidated by the atmosphere of trust that has been formed over centuries and will serve as a ground for cooperation in the future for the benefit of the peaceful existence of the two friendly nations," Harutiunian said.

"At the same time, steps are being made to deepen cooperation in the area of supply of foodstuffs and items between the Etka and Zinar companies of the Defense Ministry of Iran and the Defense Ministry of Armenia, respectively," Harutiunian added.

Iranian Defense Minister Major-General Mostafa Mohammad Najjar, who has been on a three-day visit to Armenia since Tuesday, said that the relations between the relations between Armenia and Iran can serve as a good example of warm and friendly relations between two countries.

"Security and cooperation are needed for a stable economic development of the region's countries. Iran wants to have stable and firm relations with all its neighbors," the Iranian defense chief emphasized.

The delegation led by Mostafa Mohammad Najjar was also received by President Robert Kocharian.

According to Kocharian's press service, Minister Mohammad Najjar conveyed to the Armenian president warm greetings from Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.

The sides reportedly stressed the high level of Armenian-Iranian relations, attaching importance to the agreements reached by the two countries' presidents in the matter of further developing this cooperation.

Iran, Armenia Sign Defense Cooperation Memo (http://english.farsnews.com/newstext.php?nn=8608180277)

Lebanese Spiritual Leader Calls on Palestinians to Revive Intifada

TEHRAN (Fars News Agency)- Lebanon's most senior Shiite Muslim cleric Grand Ayatollah Mohammed Hussein Fadlallah called on the Palestinian nation to revive its popular uprising - the Intifada - against the Zionist regime.

Addressing Muslim worshippers in Beirut on Friday, Fadlallah blasted the US for its efforts to undermine the oppressed nations.

"While the United States claims that it is promoting freedom and democracy in different world countries, particularly in our Arab and Islamic region, a review of its political and security strategies shows that the US seeks to undermine the oppressed nations of the world in a bid to attain its interests and control the world economy, specially through dominating the Middle-East oil reserves," he said.

Beirut's Friday prayers leader further described the Zionist regime as an aggressor and enemy of Arabs, Muslims and Palestinian nation, and slammed the US and certain European states for praising Israel as the only democratic country in the region.

He also criticized Arab leaders for giving concessions to the Zionist regime and serving interests of the Tel Aviv as a result of US pressures.

"Following the US pressures, some of the leaders of the Arab states gave big concessions to the Zionist regime and regulated their plans and programs in line with the interests of the Zionist regime in such a way that the strategic Arab-Zionist regime issue has now been restricted to the Palestinian-Zionist regime conflict," Fadlallah said.

"The situation has grown so worse that some of the Arab officials describe the Zionist enemy as their friends and view the Lebanese and Palestinian resistance as the only impediment to their friendship," he added.

The Lebanese Shiite leader further called on the Palestinian nation to blow a new spirit into its Intifada in a bid to display that its resistance will continue until the attainment of final and complete victory.

Elsewhere, he pointed to the ongoing insecurities in Iraq, and took the United States' double-standards and dual policies as responsible for the cumbersome conditions of the Iraqi people, adding that the said policies have turned instability and insecurity into the main features of the Iraqi society today.

"The United States seeks to shrink from the heavy burden of its failure in Iraq through pressurizing Syria, sparking problems in Lebanon and posing frequent threats to Iran under the pretext of Tehran's nuclear activities," the Lebanese spiritual leader concluded.

Lebanese Spiritual Leader Calls on Palestinians to Revive Intifada (http://english.farsnews.com/newstext.php?nn=8608190626)

Nasrallah: IDF border drills show Israel gearing up for new war
By The Associated Press
tags: Hassan Nasrallah, Hezbollah

The leader of the militant Hezbollah group said Sunday that the Israel Defense Forces' recent military exercises near the Lebanese border were intended to prepare for a new war on Lebanon.

"The enemy has been conducting military maneuvers for months. The latest maneuvers occurred a few weeks ago near the Lebanese border in which 50,000 Israeli officers and soldiers participated," Hassan Nasrallah told a Hezbollah rally in south Beirut. "These maneuvers are to prepare for an attack on Lebanon," he said.

He said Hezbollah's military maneuvers in southern Lebanon last week were carried out in response to the IDF drills and were designed to send out a clear message to Israel that his fighters were ready to defend Lebanon if it was attacked again by Israel.

"I tell the [Israeli] enemy that these maneuvers were real, serious and big. I am not going to give details. There is a great deal of readiness [by Hezbollah] which the enemy must understand," Nasrallah said in his speech Sunday.

"These maneuvers were intended to send out a clear message to the world which is besieging us and to this enemy that that the resistance in Lebanon possesses determination, men and the necessary and sufficient weapons to defend Lebanon," the black-turbaned cleric said, drawing cheers from the crowd.

Without elaborating, he added, "The resistance is ready to make a victory for Lebanon that will change the region's face."

The rally, attended by several thousand Hezbollah supporters waving the group's yellow banners and the Lebanese flag, was organized by the group to mark Lebanon's Martyr's Day.

Hezbollah's deputy leader Sheikh Naeem Kassem last week confirmed that the group had staged its largest-ever military maneuver near the border with Israel, claiming that the exercise was intended as preparations to counter Israeli plans for war.

Kassem told the Israeli Arab newspaper Sawat al-Balad that the maneuvers were "large and important parts of our preparation so that we won't be surprised." It was the first interview of the kind given since the maneuvers were first reported.

The pro-Hezbollah Lebanese newspaper Al-Akhbar reported last Monday that thousands of the group's guerrillas had staged the exercise near Israel's border in southern Lebanon, but Prime Minister Fuad Saniora later said the reported exercise was probably just a simulation.

Israel Air Force warplanes dropped flares over the southern Lebanon hours after Hezbollah officials confirmed the exercise.

Monday's report in marked the first time Hezbollah, with its highly secretive military wing, revealed such exercises through a close newspaper. The maneuvers, if confirmed, could pose a major challenge to a UN-brokered cease-fire that ended last year's war with Israel.

Nasrallah: IDF border drills show Israel gearing up for new war (http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/922684.html)

Iranian FM: Israel is no military match for Tehran
By The Associated Press
tags: Israel

Iran's Foreign Ministry said on Monday that Israel poses no military threat to Iran, adding that any aggression on Israel's part would spark retaliation and accusing Israel of trying to sabotage relations between Tehran and the International Atomic Energy Agency.

"The Zionist regime [Israel] is less than nothing to pose any kind of threat to Iran," ministry spokesman Mohammad Ali Hosseini told reporters Sunday when questioned about recent comments on Tehran's nuclear program made by Israeli officials.

It was not clear what Israeli threat Hosseini was referring to, but his statement came as Iran continues to defy international demands that it suspends uranium enrichment, a process that can produce fuel for a nuclear reactor or fissile material for a bomb.
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The United States has said it is pursuing diplomatic angles with Tehran for now, but has not ruled out military action as a way to halt Iran's nuclear enrichment, claiming it is using it as cover for weapons development, a charge Iranians deny.

Israel has said it views Iran as a strong threat, but most analysts think any Israeli military operation is unlikely at this point Hosseini warned Israel not to consider military action. In case it does, it will be faced with unprecedented response from Iran, Hosseini said, without elaborating.

He said Israeli threats were geared at preventing a diplomatic solution to Iran's nuclear standoff. Israelis many times have raised such things in order to undermine cooperation between Iran and the (UN) International Atomic Energy Agency, he said.

In 1981, Israel bombed a nuclear reactor in Iraq to prevent Saddam Hussein from developing nuclear weapons. While Israel neither acknowledges nor denies possessing nuclear arms, it is thought to have about 100-200 nuclear warheads, according to a 2006 report by the Center for Nonproliferation Studies at the Monterey Institute of International Studies.

Iran said Wednesday it has stepped up uranium enrichment activities by fully running 3,000 centrifuges at its nuclear plant in the central city of Natanz. It would take some 54,000 centrifuges to fuel a reactor.

Iranian FM: Israel is no military match for Tehran (http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/922674.html)

Egypt 'letting' Hamas build an army
Sheera Claire Frenkel , THE JERUSALEM POST Nov. 12, 2007

Egypt effectively condoned Hamas's takeover of the Gaza Strip in June 2007, and has since stood by and allowed Hamas to build an army, MK Yuval Steinitz (Likud) wrote in a letter to the US Senate on Sunday.

"Egypt's de facto behavior in the field supports Hamas," he said.

Steinitz wrote the letter at the request of Sen. Jon Kyl (R-Arizona), with whom he chairs a joint US-Israeli committee on defense and foreign policy.

"As long as Egypt is not required to pay a real price for this behavior, weapons and financial aid will continue to flow into the hands of Hamas and other terrorist groups in Gaza," he wrote.

Steinitz asked the Senate to approve a bill recently passed by the House of Representatives to freeze $200 million of the approximate $1.3 billion in annual US aid to Egypt each year until the Egyptian government changes it policy toward smuggling near and across its 14-kilometer border with the Gaza Strip.

According to the IDF, Hamas has smuggled 20,000 rifles, 6,000 antitank missiles and 100 tons of explosives into the Gaza Strip since last summer.

Steinitz said efforts by the Egyptians to stop the smuggling were ineffective and half-hearted.

"Egypt's claim that it is doing its best to end this situation by uncovering smuggling tunnels into Gaza is simply an insult to the intelligence... it is almost ridiculous for the Egyptians to focus on finding the tunnels, since it would be much easier for them to intercept the smugglers before they get anywhere near the border," he wrote.

Steinitz included a map of the Egypt-Gaza border in his letter.

"All they have to do is to erect a number of roadblocks along the very few roads that run from mainland Egypt to the Gaza region, in order to intercept heavily loaded trucks carrying hundreds of rifles and missiles from reaching the border," he wrote. "Alternatively, they can declare the border area a closed military zone, with a depth of two to three miles into the interior of Sinai, and prevent any movement in it."

Steinitz said both of those alternatives had been presented to Egyptian officials in the past, but the Egyptian army continued to focus on routing out tunnels.

"The only conclusion is that the Egyptians believe that it is in their interest to derail the peace process between Israel and the Palestinians and create an army in the Gaza Strip in order to try and weaken Israel," he wrote. "As long as Israel is getting weaker the Egyptians can get stronger."

Steinitz also accused the Egyptians of receiving aid, and possibly supplies, from Iran and Syria.

"There is always that argument - that the if the US cuts aid to Egypt they will just get more money from Iran and Syria," he wrote. "But it is impossible to continue in the current way."

The Egyptian government has called the accusations against them "baseless" and harmful to Egyptian-American relations.

Egypt 'letting' Hamas build an army (http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?cid=1192380792234&pagename=JPost%2FJPArticle%2FPrinter)

Saudi monarch woos Turkey's Islamists
By M K Bhadrakumar

When King Abdullah bin Abdul Aziz visited Turkey in August last year, it was 40 years since a Saudi monarch had last visited. When the 83-year-old monarch arrived in Ankara on Saturday with an entourage of 11 planes for his second visit in a year, it was an extraordinary overture.

But it was comprehensible. Middle East politics have assumed an unprecedented level of criticality. The Saudis feel the need to visualize Turkey as a pillar of strength in the volatile regional environment.

Riyadh is signaling Turkey's strategic role. A historical paradox must be noted: Saudi Arabia was the cradle of the "Arab revolt" that sounded the death knell of the Ottoman Empire. It now solicits Turkey's regional role.

Turkey, too, is ready to return to the Muslim world after nearly a century's absence. Finding its European Union membership claims stalled, Turkey edges away from Europe.

Addressing the King Abdulaziz University in Jeddah in February 2006 in his capacity as deputy prime minister and foreign minister in the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) government at that time, now-president Abdullah Gul said unequivocally, "Turkey's foundations are in Europe and we have always been part of Europe. But Turkey is more than Europe! We are part of the Muslim world and we also belong to the revered traditions of the East. This unique position is our important asset, because it allows us to serve both worlds. Let no one be in doubt that we will fulfill this historic role and advance our common aspirations."

Gul was speaking hardly five months ahead of the path-breaking visit by the Saudi monarch to Turkey. Saudi Arabia and Turkey are both transforming. En route to Ankara last week, King Abdullah was received at the Vatican by Pope Benedict XVI in the first audience ever by a pontiff with a Saudi monarch.

Of course, change comes slowly. US columnist Thomas Friedman made an interesting point that King Abdullah could visit the Vatican, but the "pope can't visit the king of Saudi Arabia in the Vatican of Islam - Mecca", as non-Muslims aren't allowed there. Compared to Saudi Arabia, though, Turkey is transforming at a faster pace.

Religious bonds
A year ago, when King Abdullah arrived in Ankara, the head of protocol, Oya Turzcugolu, met him at the steps of the plane but the king refrained from shaking her hand. President Ahmet Necdet Sezer nonetheless served wine at the state banquet. Now, just a year later, Turkey is no longer fanatically wedded to militant secularism, and Gul doesn't serve wine.

In all of Turkey's history, though the Ottoman state directed the "emir ul Haj" (meaning they were the custodians over the pilgrimage), none of the Ottoman sultans ever performed the pilgrimage, except for Cem Sultan. The presidents of the Turkish republic also scrupulously followed the tradition. Gul will most certainly break that tradition.

Indeed, an agenda item for King Abdullah's parleys in Ankara related to the Turkish request for an increased quota for the haj pilgrimage. An estimated 120,000 Turks performed haj last year, whereas almost thrice that number had applied. Turkey's official pilgrim quota is only 70,000, though the Saudis are keen to accommodate an increased number. There is a strong demand in Turkey, a country that outright banned haj pilgrimages till 1947.

A growing mutual respect for the different interpretations of Islam partly explains the new proximity (Ottoman Turks used to execute Wahhabis). Saudi Arabia is pleased that observant Muslims are becoming assertive in Turkish society. The Saudi regime feels closeness to the government led by the Islamist AKP that it never could with Turkey's staunchly secularist establishment.

But the political establishments of the two countries have a lot of distance to cover. The AKP's decision to honor the visiting Saudi king with the state medal proved controversial. The Kemalist camp bristled. The opposition Republican People's Party (CHP) leader Onur Oymen alleged the decision was a "clear indicator" of the AKP's intention to turn Turkey into an Islamic republic.

"Why should we honor Saudi Arabia? We don't harbor hostility toward that country, but we see no reason for showing sentimentality either," Oymen acidly remarked. He alleged the AKP was striving to bring Turkey "closer to the Islamic countries". Another prominent CHP leader, Inal Batu, a former diplomat, commented that "there are question marks hanging over this government's intention toward the secularist principles".

The antipathy toward Saudi Arabia is not confined to the political corridors. Despite 400 years of common history and religious and cultural links, Turkish civil society has remained coldly, disdainfully indifferent toward Saudi Arabia. It is in the Anatolian heartland of Turkey - among peasants, laborers, small traders and artisans - rather than in the cosmopolitan environs of Istanbul or Izmir that the gradual warming toward Saudi Arabia is palpable.

The Iran question
But King Abdullah's decision to visit Turkey for a second time was largely motivated by politics. The Iran question figures at the top. Riyadh is deeply disturbed by Iran's growing influence in the region. In the Saudi reading of the region's common history, Ottoman Turkey provided the bulwark against the ambitions of Persia's Safavi dynasty. Ideally, the Saudis would want history to repeat itself. But the Turkey-Iran relationship cannot be put back into a historical straightjacket. Turkish attitudes toward Iran have changed in the recent past.

The AKP government's leanings toward the Islamic world include Iran and a robust effort is on to build bilateral cooperation. Trade touching an all-time high level of US$7 billion may soon reach double digits. Ankara envisages a big role for Iran in its ambition to become the region's "energy hub". Disregarding US pressure, Ankara has pressed ahead with an agreement for the transit of Iranian gas to Europe.

Tehran for its part is thankful for Turkey's position that Iran's nuclear issue must be resolved through diplomatic means.

cont'd next post

Ankara even hosted a round of talks in April between the European Union foreign policy chief Javier Solana and Iran's former chief nuclear negotiator, Ali Larijani.

But what Riyadh must be viewing with a sense of disquiet is the emerging reality that Ankara and Tehran share common interests and concerns in the region's geopolitics. Ankara not only appreciates Tehran's support and understanding for the problems posed by PKK (Kurdistan Workers' Party) terrorism, but has lately begun flaunting its Iran connection. At the peak of the current crisis on Turkey's border with northern Iraq, Turkish Foreign Minister Ali Babacan visited Tehran on October 28.

He acknowledged that Turkey is seeking practical cooperation with Iran in tackling Kurdish militancy. Iranian President Mahmud Ahmadinejad told Babacan, "The fate of regional nations is inter-linked and they should safeguard one another's interests." Ahmadinejad phoned Gul to stress that "Turkey's concerns are received with understanding" and "occupiers [United States] had covert agreements [with Kurds], have prepared the ground for disunity [among regional states] and are supporting terrorists through their double-standard policies".

Turkish-Iranian security cooperation has also shifted gear. It has become overt and sustained and it is deepening. Turkey made good use of its Iran card while appealing to the US on the PKK problem. Riyadh surely feels exasperated that President George W Bush's coddling of Kurdish separatism and terrorism is bringing Salafi Turks and Shi'ite Iranians closer together in an unprecedented bonding of the traditional rivals.

What alarms Riyadh is that Iran also took the initiative to evolve a common position with Syria in extending support to Turkey on the Kurdish problem. Following up on his talks with Babacan, Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki visited Damascus on October 29, where he said, "Iran condemns the use of northern Iraqi territory as a launch pad for terrorist operations against Turkey and is fully prepared to combat terrorism at any price." In response, Syrian Foreign Minister Walid Mouallem said, "Our brothers in Tehran are making efforts which are complementary to ours ... PKK's terrorist activities threaten Turkey as well as Iran and Syria."

Surprise move on Kirkuk
Any Turkish invasion of Iraq will trigger a massive shift in the region's balance of forces. Turkish columnist Hasan Kanbolat of the Islamist daily Zaman recently wrote, "The Arab countries are generally afraid that Turkey's operation may expand to include even Baghdad. Some governments worry that Turkey, having become a regional power, actually plans to permanently enter Iraq and the Arab world and strengthen its claims on the oil reserves of northern Iraq. They fear, in essence, that Turkey intends to use the PKK as an excuse to return to the Middle East with the spirit of the Ottoman Empire."

The Saudis fear that a Turkish incursion into northern Iraq would willy-nilly encourage the emergence of a Shi'ite state in southern Iraq bordering Saudi Arabia's volatile Shi'ite provinces. Besides, the Saudis are nervous that Turkish-Iranian-Syrian understanding could have implications for Lebanon.

Tehran of course has been playing its cards astutely. It incessantly envelops Riyadh in a friendly idiom. On Sunday, Ahmadinejad will undertake a second visit within the year to Riyadh.

Last week, Iran threw another trump card on the table by going on record that it opposed the implementation of Article 140 of the Iraqi constitution (worked out under American supervision), which calls for holding a referendum on the status of Kirkuk province to decide on its inclusion in the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG). Mottaki told Iranian television, "There are differences of opinion about issues such as Kirkuk or the internal borders of provinces. We have suggested a moratorium so that decisions can be made about them."

The Iranian bombshell pleases Ankara immensely. To the contrary, the pro-American KRG leadership went ballistic. KRG president Massoud Barzani's office angrily reacted, "These [Iranian] proposals contradict the Iraqi constitution, and therefore we reject them. They constitute interference and will further complicate the situation." The KRG will be suspecting Iran-Turkey collusion. (The Iranian proposal was embedded deep in a package it submitted at the conference of Iraq's neighboring countries in Istanbul on November 3.)

The dilemma is acute for Saudi Arabia insofar as Iraq has also been the theater of a historical struggle between Shi'ite Iran and Sunni Anatolia. In the Iranian move on Kirkuk, Saudis see Tehran as lending a big helping hand to Ankara, which is bound to further consolidate the two countries' understanding over the Iraq situation. In intrinsic terms, though, the Iranian proposal ought to satisfy Iraqi Arabs as well as Arab countries. But what gives it a cutting edge is that it is not based on technical grounds but on manifestly political motivation. In fact, Tehran admits as much.

The Iranian proposal undercuts the "Sunni solidarity" that Saudis are seeking. For the secular Turkish establishment, though, there is no such contradiction since cooperation with Iran is very obviously for strategic reasons. Moments such as this bring out what strange bedfellows the Turks and the Saudis are.

'Green money'
All the same, King Abdullah's overture to Turkey has logic. He will know Turkey has always been enamored of petro-dollars. The Saudis can be trendsetters at a time when the oil-exporting countries of the Persian Gulf have huge surplus resources to invest. Turkey signaled its priorities when a double taxation avoidance agreement was signed during King Abdullah's visit.

An influx of what Turks call yesil sermaye or green money - from wealthy Islamist businessmen and oil-rich Arab countries - has quietly boosted the AKP's finances over the years. Turkey's Islamic business skyline has certainly changed beyond recognition during AKP rule in the party's strongholds like Kayseri and Konya in inner Anatolia.

Turkish economists estimate that infusion of green money into Turkey could be anywhere up to $12 billion. They speculate that Turkey could be a beneficiary of the Saudi and Persian Gulf countries' liquidation of their US holdings since September 11, 2001.

Some experts believe green money may already have begun influencing Turkish policies. To be sure, Saudi investors will take note that following the AKP's massive election victory in July, Turkey's political fulcrum has shifted. The newly elected president Gul fondly recalls his assignment as a specialist in the Islamist Development Bank in Jeddah for eight years from 1983 to 1991. Riyadh can claim a genuinely warm friend in Gul.

Limits of Saudi influence
King Abdullah's visit is a celebration of growing ties. It is an acknowledgement of Turkey's regional role, and a statement that Riyadh will go the extra yard to cement common approaches on regional problems with Turkey.

But how far can a Saudi-Turkish strategic partnership develop? The crunch will come over Iraq's future. Much will depend on how Bush makes good on the pledges he made to Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan during their talks in Washington on November 5 regarding PKK terrorism. Even as King Abdullah was visiting Ankara, Turkey's chief of general staff, General Yasar Buyukanit, repeated that an operation inside Iraq is in the pipeline awaiting government approval.

Buyukanit played down the Washington parleys. "We are a great state and we do not need approval from anyone," he said, adding Turkey only sought "coordination" with US forces in Iraq to avoid friendly fire.

The Saudis have no real means of influencing either developments on the Turkey-Iraq border that could trigger a chain reaction, or Bush's complicated thought processes over Iran that could dramatically alter the region's chessboard.

For the first time in decades, even though oil is selling for almost $100 a barrel, the Saudis will realize the limits of their capacity to influence the course of events in their region. They find non-Arab parties - the US, Israel, Iran, Turkey and even the Kurds - entirely managing the birth pangs of the new Middle East, while not a single Arab regime is directly involved. The Turks will know the Saudis are dealing from a weak hand.

Saudi monarch woos Turkey's Islamists (http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Central_Asia/IK13Ag01.html)

Saudi Prince Buying 'Flying Palace' Jet for More Than $320 Million

Tuesday , November 13, 2007

AP
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DUBAI, United Arab Emirates —
In the annals of excess, it could be a new high: a more than $300 million dollar, super-sized luxury airplane, bought and outfitted solely for the private comfort of a Saudi Arabian billionaire.

Once done, the Airbus A380, the world's biggest passenger plane, will be a "flying palace" for Prince Alwaleed bin Talal, the manufacturer announced Monday.

Airbus SAS would not give a specific price tag for the VIP double- decker jet, with its football field-length wings, saying only that it would cost more than the aircraft's list price of $320 million.

That doesn't even include the money the prince will spend to custom fit the nearly 6,000-square foot plane to include whatever he wants. The options include private bedrooms, a movie theater or even a gym with a jacuzzi. He'll also need a flight crew of about 15 to operate the luxury liner.

"Prince Alwaleed is the first, and so far the only customer of this aircraft," said David Velupillai, the spokesman of the Airbus, which announced the luxury order at the Dubai International Airshow.

It's all just spending cash for bin Talal—Citigroup Inc.'s biggest individual shareholder and the world's 13th richest person with assets around $20 billion.

As a member of the Saudi royal family, he benefits from the country's vast oil wealth. But much of bin Talal's huge fortune comes from his investment firm, the $25-billion Kingdom Holding Co., which has stakes in Rupert Murdoch's News Corp., Fairmont Raffles Hotels International Inc., Time Warner Inc., Apple Inc., PepsiCo Inc., Walt Disney Co. to name a few major corporations.

The prince, who is in his early 50s, appears to have a taste for super-sized jumbo jets. He already is the only private owner of a Boeing 747-400, Airbus said.

"It's like buying a new car or a new TV," Velupillai told The Associated Press. "One wants something bigger and better."

Airbus would not release many details about bin Talal's VIP A380, which dwarfs the 747—formerly the world's most spacious plane. Staff who answered the phone at bin Talal's office on Monday in Saudi Arabia said he was unavailable to comment.

The commercial A380, which made its maiden voyage with Singapore Airlines last month, is as tall as a seven-story building with each wing big enough to hold 70 cars. It is capable of carrying 853 passengers in an all-economy class configuration.

Take out the seats, and the plane can be transformed into a flying mansion.

Germany's Lufthansa Technik, which declined to comment Monday on bin Talal's purchase, has created a general rendering of what a VIP A380 jumbo could include: spacious bedrooms on the plane's upper deck, separated by a reception area and a bar next to central stairway. The master bedroom could include an office, private dinning room, a gym featuring a steam bath and exercise machines.

The lower decks could feature a lounge-type quarters equipped with a conference area and dining room. A third level, normally used for cargo, could be transformed into another passenger space or cinema.

This type of custom design does not come cheap. Experts say it could rack the price up by another $50 million to $150 million.

Purchases of private airliners has mushroomed in recent years, but most orders are in the category of a Learjet or Gulfstream—small and cheap at $2 million to $5 million in comparison to the A380, said David Bain, editor of a British-based online wealth analysis service, wealth-bulletin.com.

"It seems the Saudis really like these huge planes, and they have the money to do it," said Bain, who believes about a dozen other individuals own commercial jets. "Very few people buy commercial planes. It's a bit over the top."

But he and Airbus expect that number to grow. The airline company said it expects at least six other A380 VIP jets to be sold to clients in the Middle East, and Central and South Asia.

"The amount of billionaires has sky rocketed in recent years, and the really rich ones are looking to buy a commercial airline rather than a Learjet," Bain said.

Saudi Prince Buying 'Flying Palace' Jet for More Than $320 Million (http://www.foxnews.com/printer_friendly_story/0,3566,311077,00.html)
~~~~~~~~~~

This does indeed remind one of the Left Behind scenario in the series of books about well you - know - who. :D :D

Iran gives UN warhead blueprints
Associated Press , THE JERUSALEM POST Nov. 13, 2007

After years of stonewalling, Iran has given the UN nuclear agency blueprints showing how to mold uranium metal into the shape of warheads, diplomats said Tuesday, in an apparent concession meant to head off the threat of new UN sanctions.

But the diplomats said Tehran has failed to meet other requests made by the International Atomic Energy Agency in its attempts to end nearly two decades of nuclear secrecy on the part of the Islamic Republic.

The diplomats spoke to The Associated Press as IAEA chief Mohamed ElBaradei put the finishing touches on his latest report to his agency's 35-nation board of governors, for consideration next week. While ElBaradei is expected to say that Iran has improved its cooperation with his agency's probe, the findings are unlikely to deter the United States, France and Britain from pushing for a third set of UN sanctions.

The agency has been seeking possession of the blueprints since 2005, when it stumbled upon them among a batch of other documents during its examination of suspect Iranian nuclear activities. While agency inspectors had been allowed to examine them in the country, Tehran had up to now refused to let the IAEA have a copy for closer perusal.

Diplomats accredited to the agency, who demanded anonymity for divulging confidential information, said the drawings were hand-carried by Mohammad Saeedi, deputy director of Iran's Atomic Energy Organization and handed over last week in Vienna to Oli Heinonen, an ElBaradei deputy in charge of the Iran investigations.

Iran maintains it was given the papers without asking for them during its black market purchases of nuclear equipment decades ago that now serve as the backbone of its program to enrich uranium - a process that can generate power or create the fissile core of nuclear warheads. Iran's refusal to suspend enrichment has been the main trigger for both existing UN sanctions and the threat of new ones.

Both the IAEA and other experts have categorized the instructions outlined in the blueprints as having no value outside of a nuclear weapons program.

While ElBaradei's report is likely to mention the Iranian concession on the drawings and other progress made in clearing up ambiguities in Iran's nuclear activities, it was unclear whether it would also detail examples of what the diplomats said was continued Iranian stonewalling.

Senior IAEA officials were refused interviews with at least two top Iranian nuclear officials suspected of possible involvement in a weapons program, they said. One was the leader of a physics laboratory at Lavizan, outside Tehran, which was razed before the agency had a chance to investigate activities there. The other was in charge of developing Iran's centrifuges, used to enrich uranium.

Iran gives UN warhead blueprints (http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?cid=1192380808786&pagename=JPost%2FJPArticle%2FPrinter)

OIC Sec-Gen: "We cannot afford to fail"
Carolyn O. Arguillas/MindaNews
Tuesday, 13 November 2007 15:51

JEDDAH, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (MindaNews/13 November) – “The attention of the whole world is focused on us … we cannot afford to fail,” the secretary-general of the 57-nation Organization of the Islamic Conference (OIC), said Monday afternoon (evening in Manila) at the end of the three-day Tripartite Meeting here with the Philippine government and the Moro National Liberation Front (MNLF).

Ambassador Sayed Qassim Al-Masry, the OIC’s Special Envoy for Southern Philippines, told MindaNews that while no timetable has been set to compete the review of the 1996 “Final Peace Agreement,” he foresees “two or three more sessions.”

The parties in their two-page Communique set January 14, 2008 as the date for the next Tripartite Meeting, to discuss the progress reports from the five joint working groups they created.

The five joint working groups are on the Shari’ah and Judiciary; the Special Regional Security Force and the Unified Command for the Autonomous Region in Mindanao; Natural Resources and Economic Development issues; Political system and representation; and Education. These are the same issues that are listed in Phase 2 of the Agreement.

The working groups will have three members each from the Philippine government and the MNLF and their meetings will be attended by representatives of the OIC’s Peace Committee for Southern Philippines (PCSP).

The PCSP is an 11-nation expanded version of what used to be the Ministerial Committee of the Eight headed by Indonesia. The Committee of the Eight had earlier been tasked by the OIC to chair the peace negotiations between the Philippine government and the MNLF, which has been holding an observer status in the OIC since 1977.

In the early 1970s, the OIC tasked a Committee of the Four which was later expanded to Six – Libya, Saudi Arabia, Bangladesh, Indonesia, Senegal and Somalia and in 2000 was expanded to Eight with the inclusion of Malaysia and Brunei.

The PCSP now includes Egypt, Turkey and Pakistan as chair of the Islamic Conference of Foreign Ministers.

Ihsanoglu said that when the Tripartite Meeting began Saturday afternoon, “I expressed the hope that it would build on the successes that had already been achieved in this endeavor. That hope has not been misplaced as we have been able to move forward with the establishment of a framework to rejuvenate the implementation of the Agreement.”

“I am confident that the days and months ahead will benefit from our concerted efforts and determination to succeed,” he said, adding, “I wish to conclude by reminding both sides that the attention of the whole world is focused on us and that we cannot afford to fail.”

The heads of delegation of both the Philippine government and the MNLF used the same word to describe the task ahead: “gargantuan.”

Peace Process Undersecretary Nabil Tan of Sulu, head of the Philippine delegation, said the road to peace “is never easy.”

“We encounter bumps, we detour, we make many turns but we still do not lose sight that the track to sustainable development is peace – peace is the way.”

“The gargantuan task of reviewing the implementation of the 1996 Peace Agreement and in arriving at a consensus by both parties has just begun,” Tan said.

The vice governor of the Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (ARMM) from 1993 to 1996 and member of the government peace panel that negotiated with the MNLF during the same period, Tan noted that “perseverance, having an open mind and thinking out of the box including nourishing the partnership should be the prevailing atmosphere to attain the goals we have set in this meeting.”

“Behind the dark rain-laden cloud is the shining sun,” said lawyer Randolph Parcasio, MNLF head of delegation.

Parcasio, a member of the legal panel of the MNLF peace panel from 1992 to 1996 and executive secretary to MNLF chair Nur Misuari when the latter served as ARMM governor from 1996 to 2001, said that while the three-day meeting ended on a positive note, “our gargantuan task now is to ensure that we will not lose the momentum that we have gained.”

He assured the MNLF “will do its duty and obligation to ensure that their respective representatives to these working groups will carry out their mandate effectively with honor, dignity, and dedication.”

“Back home, there is urgency in resolving the issues confronting us, because in the interregnum, underdevelopment, massive poverty and unemployment, injustice, lawlessness continues to confront the Bangsamoro People,” Parcasio said, citing the “lack of political and institutional empowerment in a genuine autonomous government for Southern Philippines in order to address these problems as envisioned in the 1996 Peace Agreement remains in suspended animation.”

“The wait was long, but at last, with the conclusion of this meeting, a faint light is now found at the end of the tunnel,” he said.

“Let us not waste this golden opportunity for us to act as one and united in bringing the peace dividends to our ummah,” Tan urged his fellow Bangsamoro brothers in the MNLF.

“We all look forward to seeing a progressive and peaceful Mindanao, where socio-economic progress would replace conflict and discontent; where the rule of law would strive and deter and dissuade inhabitants from veering off the path of moderation and peace; where extremists and militant infiltrators would not be accepted by the community,” he said.

“Let me conclude by saying that if our ends are just and noble, success is inevitable,” Parcasio said.

OIC Sec-Gen: "We cannot afford to fail" (http://www.mindanews.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=3263&Itemid=191)

Iraq: Turkish gunships attack villages
Raid is first major action against Kurd rebels since Erdogan, Bush meeting

Associated Press Writer
updated 2:56 a.m. MT, Wed., Nov. 14, 2007

SULAIMANIYAH, Iraq - Turkish helicopters swooped into Iraqi territory Tuesday, Iraqi officials said, firing on villages in renewed pressure to dislodge Turkish Kurd guerrillas from bases in northern Iraq used to stage cross-border raids.

The helicopter attack was the first major Turkish action against the rebels since Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan met with President Bush in Washington on Nov. 5. Turkey has demanded that the U.S. and Iraq crack down on guerrillas operating from Iraqi territory and has massed tens of thousands of soldiers along the border with Iraq.

The United States and Iraq have urged Turkey, a NATO member, to avoid a large-scale attack on rebel bases in northern Iraq, fearing such an operation would destabilize what has been the calmest region in the country.
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A spokesman for the Iraqi Kurd regional administration, Jamal Abdullah, denied the helicopter attack report but said two Turkish warplanes dropped flares Monday in the mountains near the Iraqi town of Zakhu.

But Col. Hussein Tamir, an Iraqi army officer who supervises border guards, said the Turkish helicopters opened fire before dawn on abandoned villages northeast of Zakhu, an Iraqi Kurd town near the border with Turkey. There were no casualties, he said.

A Turkish government official confirmed the helicopter raids and said they were directed at suspected hideouts of the Kurdistan Workers Party, or PKK, which has been fighting for autonomy for Turkish Kurds since 1984 in a conflict that has killed nearly 40,000 people.

The official said more raids could be expected within a few days. He spoke on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to talk to the media.

A PKK spokesman corroborated accounts of the airstrikes, and said sporadic clashes had been taking place inside Turkey since late Monday. He spoke on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to talk to the media.

Witnesses also said the Turkish bombing lasted a half hour in the villages, located northeast of Zakhu near the border.

"I was on the other side of the mountain when I heard huge explosions and could smell TNT powder all over the area," said shepherd Ibrahim Mazori, 53. He said he sometimes spends a night or two in the villages while tending his sheep.

All-out incursion?
An all-out cross-border incursion could be politically damaging for the Turks, who are also seeking membership in the European Union. But an upsurge of rebel attacks has outraged the Turkish public, increasing pressure on Erdogan to show resolve. Time for any possible ground incursion is running out, however, with the approach of the harsh winter in the border region.

More than 50 Turkish troops have been killed in a series of hit-and-run attacks by Kurdish rebels since late September. Turkey says it has killed dozens of rebels.

In the latest attack, four Turkish soldiers were killed Tuesday in a clash with rebels near the southeastern Turkish city of Sirnak, Turkish Defense Minister Vecdi Gonul said. The dead soldiers included a lieutenant and three privates, the governor's office in Sirnak said.

Turkey also fears its own Kurdish minority could become emboldened by the success of Iraqi Kurds in winning broad autonomy within Iraq.

Despite U.S. pressure against a ground incursion, American authorities have agreed to share intelligence with Turkey about Kurdish rebel positions, enabling the Turkish military to carry out limited assaults.

"The United States has declared the PKK as the common enemy. The struggle against this enemy will be maintained until it is eliminated," Erdogan told lawmakers in Parliament on Tuesday.

Air raids conducted with the help of newly provided U.S. intelligence could help Turkey chip away at rebel strength and show an angry public that it is taking strong measures to defeat the rebels.

For its part, Iraq's government is eager to avoid a confrontation with Turkey at a time when U.S. and Iraqi officials are claiming progress in the fight against Sunni and Shiite extremists.

3 U.S. soldiers killed
Meanwhile, three U.S. soldiers were killed in attacks north of the Iraqi capital, the military said Wednesday.

Two U.S. soldiers died Tuesday in an explosion in Diyala province, the U.S. military said in a statement. Another soldier was mortally wounded by gunfire Wednesday while providing security during a training mission for Iraqi police near Mosul.

Their deaths brought to at least 3,864 the number of U.S. military members who have died since the beginning of the Iraq war in March 2003, according to an Associated Press count. The figure includes eight civilians working for the military.
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Also Tuesday, the U.S. military said American and Iraqi troops killed 15 suspected al-Qaida in Iraq militants in a daylong battle the day before in Adwaniyah, about 12 miles south of Baghdad.

During the battle, American F-16 fighter jets dropped two 500-pound bombs on insurgent positions, the military said. It was unclear whether the 15 victims died in the gunbattle, or as a result of the U.S. bombing.

Elsewhere, at least 16 people were killed or found dead across the country Tuesday, according to police reports. Most of the deaths occurred outside of Baghdad.

Sunni, Shiite parties fail to work together
Improvements in security, however, have not produced power-sharing deals among Sunni and Shiite political parties. The U.S. believes such agreements are crucial to ensuring long-term stability.

On Tuesday, a key ally of anti-American Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr called for Iraq's parliament to be dissolved and new elections held immediately to break the political deadlock.

Bahaa al-Araji, a lawmaker from al-Sadr's 30-member bloc, told reporters in Baghdad that the parliament has "become a burden on the Iraqi people rather than an institution to solve their problems and offer services."

"The parliament has become a very weak institution because of the way the elections took place, especially in Anbar and Mosul and some other southern provinces. I call for revising the election law," al-Araji said.

He said he was expressing his own views, and not speaking for his parliamentary bloc.

The next parliamentary elections are currently scheduled for 2009.

Earlier this year, al-Sadr's followers pulled out of Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki's Cabinet to protest the Iraqi leader's reluctance to call for a timetable for withdrawal of U.S. troops from the country. Sadrists also withdrew from the legislature's largest Shiite political grouping, the United Iraqi Alliance, but retained their seats in parliament.

Iraq: Turkish gunships attack villages (http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21783268/)

Peres relays to Turkey secret info on Iran

During Ankara visit, president delivers to his hosts intelligence on Tehran's terrorist activities and nuclear program, aimed at swaying Turkey into taking firmer stance against Islamic republic

Aviram Zino
Published: 11.14.07, 01:05 / Israel News

ISTANBUL – President Shimon Peres has relayed to Turkey confidential information about Iran's terrorist activities during his visit to Ankara, Ynet learned Tuesday.

Officials on Peres' delegation said that the intelligence given to Turkey included proof that Iran's long-range missiles have been designed for nuclear war purposes, as well as evidence indicating that Iran's nuclear program was not peaceful and documents related to terror funding by Iran.

The information, as well as recommendations for assistance in the war against terror, were delivered to the Turks by Peres' military secretary Brigadier-General Shimon Hefetz.

Sources on the delegation explained that the information was aimed at persuading Turkey to change its political stances on Iran. Currently, the volume of trade between the two countries stands at billions of dollars annually, and the two also share common problems of terror by Kurdish rebels.

These considerations limit Turkey's ability, or inclination, to join the nations denouncing the Islamic republic and take a firmer stance against it.

In his speeches during the visit, Peres has on a few occasions compared between Iran, which supports terror, and Turkey, which strives for peace. The two, Peres said, were Muslim countries with very different worldviews.

Peres also visited Istanbul, and was accompanied to his plane by his host, the Turkish defense minister.

The president arrived directly at the Neveh Shalom synagogue in Istanbul, which is located in the heart of a Muslim neighborhood. The synagogue is suffered a deadly terror attack several years ago, in which more than 40 Jews and Israelis lost their lives.

Peres was greeted at the synagogue by hundreds of the Jewish community members in Istanbul. He was welcomed with dancing and a lot of excitement.

Peres relays to Turkey secret info on Iran (http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-3471182,00.html)

Russia says it may deploy missiles to Belarus
Move could be made in response to U.S. shield plans, general says

Nov. 14, 2007

MOSCOW - Russia may deploy its newest Iskander tactical missiles in neighboring Belarus in response to U.S. plans for a missile shield in eastern Europe, Russian media quoted a senior general as saying on Wednesday.

Asked if the missiles could be deployed in response to the U.S. shield, Major-General Vladimir Zaritsky, head of Russia’s artillery and missile forces, was quoted as saying by Itar-Tass news agency: “Why not? Under the right conditions and with the corresponding agreement of Belarus, it is possible.”

“Any action inevitably causes a reaction,” Zaritsky said. ”And this is just the case with the elements of U.S. air defense in the Czech Republic and Poland.”
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Washington plans to place 10 interceptor missiles in Poland and a radar in the Czech Republic as part of a shield it says is designed to protect Europe from missile attacks by “rogue states” such as Iran and North Korea.

Russia has said this would upset the strategic balance and pose a threat to its security. In July, Moscow proposed the two countries use the Russian-operated early warning Qabala radar in Azerbaijan as an alternative to the U.S. missile shield.

U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates said during a visit to Moscow last month the Qabala radar could not replace the U.S. missile shield.

The Iskander missile is able to deliver a 1,058 lb conventional payload within a range of up to 250 miles.

Zaritsky said Iskander missiles were now fully in line with the Intermediate-range Nuclear Forces Treaty (INF).

But he stressed: “Should Russia take a political decision to quit the INF treaty, we will boost the military capabilities of these missiles, including their range.”

Asked if Russia could eventually raise Iskander’s range to over 500 km, which is banned by the INF treaty, Zaritsky said: ”Who knows what the motherland may order?”

Russia says it may deploy missiles to Belarus (http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21784174/)

Iran and China vow to boost ties

By Fredrik Dahl Tue Nov 13, 3:15 PM ET

TEHRAN (Reuters) - Iran and China vowed on Tuesday to boost ties that Beijing believes will help preserve regional and international peace, official Iranian media reported.

The two countries' pledge to cooperate more closely is likely to irritate Western powers seeking tougher sanctions on oil-producing Iran over its disputed atomic ambitions.

Visiting Chinese Foreign Minister Yang Jiechi held talks with Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, whose country has repeatedly refused to heed U.N. demands to halt nuclear activities which Washington suspects are aimed at making bombs.

China, which can veto further U.N. sanctions, gets about 12 percent of its oil imports from Iran and wants more.

"Enemies of the two nations must know that high-ranking Iranian and Chinese officials are determined to expand their bilateral ties," Ahmadinejad told Yang, Iran's official IRNA news agency said.

It quoted Yang as saying: "Expansion of ties with Iran has great importance for China's government ... Improving Iran's and China's relations could be helpful in protecting regional and international peace, stability and security."

In Beijing, China's Foreign Ministry said sanctions were not the way to resolve the international confrontation over Iran's nuclear work while also urging Tehran to be more flexible.

Yang described Iran's cooperation with the U.N. International Atomic Energy Agency as positive, IRNA said.

He and Iranian chief nuclear negotiator Saeed Jalili emphasized in talks the necessity of resolving the nuclear issue through diplomacy and peacefully, the ISNA news agency said.

SOARING TRADE

In Vienna, diplomats said the U.N. nuclear watchdog is likely to report this week that Iran has improved cooperation with an inquiry into shadowy atomic activity but that it remained unclear whether it was enough to resolve key questions.

The United States and its allies accuse Iran of seeking to develop atomic weapons but Tehran says its nuclear program is aimed at generating electricity so that it can export more oil.

Britain, France, Germany, the United States, Russia and China are expected to meet on November 19 to assess the report from IAEA chief Mohamed ElBaradei as well as one from the European Union's top diplomat, Javier Solana.

Iran is defying two U.N. Security Council resolutions since December which imposed mild sanctions.

Iranian analyst Saeed Laylaz said China's trade with Iran was set to soar to around $20 billion this year from just $200 million in the mid-1990s, partly due to U.S. sanctions which have prompted Iranians to turn from the West to Asia for trade.

"Never in the history of Iran have we had such an experience with another country," he said. Iran is selling oil to China while the communist country supplied vehicles and engineering goods to the Islamic state, he said.

Iran and China vow to boost ties (http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20071113/wl_nm/iran_china_ties_dc;_ylt=Anyqpg.kkUgk0q1YPVpA71hm.3QA)

Putin gives sign that he'll retain power

By STEVE GUTTERMAN, Associated Press Writer Tue Nov 13, 3:45 PM ET

KRASNOYARSK, Russia - President Vladimir Putin said Tuesday that a big win for the dominant pro-Kremlin party in December parliamentary elections would give him the "moral right" to maintain influence in Russia after he steps down next year.

Putin's remarks on a campaign-style visit to Siberia were the clearest sign yet that he intends to retain power and keep Russia on the authoritarian, globally assertive course that he has set during eight years as president.

But Putin, a former KGB officer who uses secrecy and surprise as political tools, kept Russians guessing about just what role he might play after term limits force him from office in May.

Putin has long indicated that he hopes to remain influential after stepping down, and has not ruled out a bid to return to the Kremlin in 2012. He said last month that he might become prime minister. But there have been indications that he would choose an informal path, using an overwhelming electoral victory for United Russia as a mandate to maintain authority as the people's choice for a national leader.

He said last month that he will lead the United Russia party's ticket in the Dec. 2 elections to the State Duma, the lower house of parliament.

The people who lead party tickets do not always take seats in parliament, and the Kremlin has said Putin — who is not a United Russia member — has no intention of doing so. Instead, the party has cast the election as a referendum on the popular president and the course he has set for Russia.

The expected overwhelming victory for the party would give Putin a popular mandate and a loyal parliament to limit the clout of his successor — and possibly lay the groundwork for a return to the presidency in 2012 or sooner.

On his first major trip inside Russia since the parliamentary campaign began — and which the Kremlin says is likely to be his last before the vote — Putin drank tea with workers at a road construction site in Krasnoyarsk, a vast region that reaches beyond the Arctic Circle.

Putin went to the city of Krasnoyarsk — a chaotic sprawl of czarist-era wooden buildings, Soviet-style structures and new apartment towers — to head a meeting with governors and Cabinet ministers on the transport sector. But his remarks to the construction crew in a shed on the snowy steppe outside the city turned the visit into something of a campaign stop.

"If the people vote for United Russia, it means that a clear majority ... put their trust in me, and in turn that means I will have the moral right to hold those in the Duma and the Cabinet responsible for the implementation of the tasks that have been set as of today," Putin said.

"In what form I will do this, I cannot yet give a direct answer. But various possibilities exist," he said. "If the result is the one I am counting on, I will have this opportunity."

He traded a cold-weather coat and fur-fringed hood for a suit jacket to speak to university students and instructors, promising them more attention and cash for education.

Krasnoyarsk voters gave him and United Russia below-average support in the last national election.

With the regional governor and city mayor now United Russia members, a major push is under way to ensure high support in this election. Across the city, United Russia billboards reading "Putin's Plan is Russia's Victory" far outnumber other parties' ads, and smaller United Russia signs are affixed to lamppost after lamppost along the main avenue downtown.

Other parties say the authorities use their power to promote United Russia unfairly and prevent the opposition from getting its message out.

Vladislav Korolyov, the regional head of the liberal Union of Right Forces party, said the authorities have pressured managers of potential campaign event venues not to rent them to the opposition, and police have stopped the distribution of his party's newspaper.

"What kind of moral right can he talk about?" Korolyov said. He said Putin has stifled democracy while coasting on Russia's natural resource wealth, failing to push through economic reforms and lift millions out of poverty.

But Maria Nikitina, 18, an economics student walking downtown, said that Putin's rule has brought improvements and she plans to vote for United Russia in the hope that the trend will continue.

"Russia is rising, the country is moving forward," she said.

With Putin at the helm and the election process tightly controlled, the party should have little trouble maintaining its two-thirds majority in the Duma.

Under new election rules, voters will choose only among parties, not individual candidates. Seats are allocated proportionally to parties that receive at least 7 percent of the vote — and only one party other than United Russia, the Communist Party, appears certain to clear the barrier.

Russia under Putin has enjoyed oil-fueled economic growth and a restoration of its global clout. The president said Tuesday that United Russia was far from perfect, but he suggested that no other party could guarantee stability and continuity.

Yana Grinko, a 21-year-old university student who met with Putin, said she hopes he will not stay out of the Kremlin for good.

"I hope he returns to us in 2012," she said.

Putin gives sign that he'll retain power (http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20071113/ap_on_re_eu/russia_putin;_ylt=AvSEelNBwroL6_Mu4nuJPvRw24cA)

Iran not in clear if U.N. report only partly good: U.S.
Wed Nov 14, 2007 3:37pm EST

By Mark Heinrich

VIENNA (Reuters) - The United States signaled on Wednesday that partial Iranian cooperation with U.N. nuclear investigators would not be enough to stall steps towards a third round of sanctions against Tehran.

The International Atomic Energy Agency is likely later this week to report some improvements in Iranian nuclear transparency in keeping with Tehran's pledge in August to defuse suspicions it has a covert atomic bomb program.

In a gesture aimed at slowing momentum towards sanctions, Iran has turned over a blueprint showing how to mould uranium metal into spheres to fit into nuclear warheads, fulfilling a key demand in a four-year-old IAEA inquiry, diplomats said.

But the blueprint alone does not resolve outstanding questions about the nature of Iran's program which Tehran says aims only to produce electricity not armaments.

Gregory Schulte, U.S. envoy to the IAEA, said the agency's 35-nation Board of Governors and Security Council members would not be content to "see a little bit more information here, a little more there" from Iran in the report.

"Selective cooperation is not good enough," he told reporters at the U.N. watchdog's Vienna headquarters.

"When we read this report and evaluate Iran's cooperation, the standard we will look for is full disclosure and also a full suspension of their proliferation-sensitive activities."

An IAEA board meeting next week will debate the report.

Iran apparently provided documentation to help explain its work to develop centrifuges that enrich uranium, diplomats said.

But it may not have granted IAEA access to workshops or key Iranian officials for interviews to verify the work did not have military ends, said diplomats monitoring the hush-hush inquiry.

"The operative word there is partial (cooperation). There is a long, long list of questions," said State Department spokesman Sean McCormack.

"Answering one question among several pages worth certainly doesn't, in my book, count as full cooperation which is what the IAEA board of governors said that it is looking for."

Six world powers agreed in September they would have the U.N. Security Council vote on wider sanctions unless reports by the IAEA and the EU's top diplomat showed Iran had come clean on its program and was moving to suspend it.

NO NUCLEAR SUSPENSION ON HORIZON

The European Union's Javier Solana is widely expected to confirm in his report on recent talks with Iran that it remains unwilling to consider a suspension.

Some diplomats said the IAEA report could cite just enough new examples of Iranian cooperation for Russia and China to argue for further deferral of sanctions to allow more time for the transparency process, which has no deadlines, to work.

"The IAEA report won't be too bad for the Iranians," said a European diplomat accredited to the IAEA.

"The end result will make it very difficult for the six (powers) to speak in one voice on the next steps, because the report may be enough to satisfy some, but not satisfy others."

Russia and China, both with Security Council vetoes, want to keep strong trade ties with Iran and say isolating the Islamic Republic could lead to wider Middle East conflict.

"The start of talks between Iran and IAEA is bringing some results," Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov told a news conference during a visit to Slovenia on Wednesday.

Referring to the imminent IAEA and EU reports, he said: "We all have to concentrate on a positive approach ... rather than on various announcements, prognoses, etc."

McCormack said movement towards a third round of sanctions was not moving as quickly as the United States would have hoped.

"I'm not going to make any secret of the fact that we would have wished that this process had moved forward and we would have already had the third resolution in our rear-view mirror at this point. We don't. We are making some progress," he said.

Iran not in clear if U.N. report only partly good: U.S. (http://www.reuters.com/articlePrint?articleId=USL1464950320071114)

EU 'should expand beyond Europe'

Foreign Secretary David Miliband has suggested the European Union should work towards including Russia, Middle Eastern and North African countries.

He said enlargement was "our most powerful tool" for extending stability.

In his first major speech on the UK's relationship with Europe, he said the EU would not become a "superpower" but should be a "role model" for the world.

It could be a "model power of regional co-operation" dedicated to free trade, the environment and tackling extremism.

He said the EU must "keep our promises to Turkey", adding: "If we fail.... it will signal a deep and dangerous divide between east and west.

"Beyond that we must keep the door open, retaining the incentive for change and the prospect of membership provides."

Mr Miliband made his address at the College of Europe in Bruges, Belgium, where Baroness Thatcher delivered her famous warning against "some sort of identikit European personality" almost exactly two decades ago in September 1988.

US 'only superpower'

Mr Miliband said that speech had been "haunted by demons - a European superstate bringing in socialism by the back door".

But he said: "The truth is that the EU has enlarged, remodelled and opened up. It is not and is not going to become a superstate. But neither is it destined to become a superpower."

Instead he said the EU had the chance to be a "model power" which could develop shared values between countries.

"As a club that countries want to join, it can persuade countries to play by the rules, and set global standards. In the way it dispenses its responsibilities around the world, it can be a role model that others follow."

Extremism and insecurity

Mr Miliband said new threats, like protectionism, religious extremism, energy insecurity, rogue and failing states and climate change provided a new "raison d'etre" for the EU.

He outlined four principles for the "next generation" of Europe, for it to remain open to "trade, ideas and investment", to develop shared institutions to overcome religious and cultural divides, to prevent conflict by championing international law and human rights in and outside Europe, and to become a "low carbon power".

He said a successful EU must be prepared to "deploy soft and hard power to promote democracy and tackle conflict beyond its borders".

He said the goal "must be a multilateral free-trade zone around our periphery".

This would be a "version of the European Free Trade Association that could gradually bring the countries of the Mahgreb, the Middle East and Eastern Europe in line with the single market, not as an alternative to membership, but potentially as a step towards it".

And the EU should extend military support to places like Darfur, he argued, to help solve problems of unwanted migration.

'Embarrassing'

He also said European nations had to "improve their capabilities".

"It's frankly embarrassing that when European nations - with almost two million men and women under arms - are only able, at a stretch, to deploy around 100,000 at any one time," he said.

"European countries have around 1,200 transport helicopters, yet only 35 are deployed in Afghanistan. And EU member states haven't provided any helicopters in Darfur despite the desperate need there."

Long-term regulations were needed to phase out carbon emissions in key areas - by reducing vehicle emissions and work towards "a zero-emission vehicle standard across Europe".

He said that by 2020, all new coal-fired power stations must be fitted with "carbon capture and storage".

In a reference to the failed EU Constitution, he said: "The constitutional debate shows that people don't want major institutional upheaval. Unanimity is slow but it respects national identities."

But his Conservative counterpart William Hague said Mr Miliband and his colleagues were "ramming that constitution through under a new name and refusing to give voters a say at an election or a referendum" - a reference to the EU Reform treaty.

"The fact is that if the renamed constitution goes through we will have a more inward-looking Europe," said Mr Hague.

"The treaty's clauses will make the EU more protectionist and less competitive and give the EU more power to interfere with crucial areas like our criminal justice system."

Pakistan's Musharraf warns on nuke weapons
President defends emergency rule, saying arms could fall into wrong hands

Nov. 17, 2007

LONDON - President Pervez Musharraf, defending his decision to declare emergency rule, has said Pakistan's nuclear weapons could fall into the wrong hands if elections led to disturbances.

The comments, in a BBC interview broadcast on Saturday, come as U.S. envoy John Negroponte visited Pakistan to put pressure on Musharraf to revoke the two-week-old emergency, make peace with opposition leader Benazir Bhutto and hold fair elections.

Musharraf said that if elections were held in a "disturbed environment," it could bring in dangerous elements who might pose a risk to control of Pakistan's nuclear weapons.
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"They cannot fall into the wrong hands, if we manage ourselves politically. The military is there -- as long as the military is there, nothing happens to the strategic assets, we are in charge and nobody does anything with them," he said.

Musharraf, who took power in a coup eight years ago, cited rising Islamist militancy and a hostile judiciary as reasons for declaring emergency rule. He has said a general election will be held before January 9 and he expects to step down as army chief and be sworn in as a civilian president beforehand.

Bhutto's chances of winning dismissed
In the interview conducted on Friday, Musharraf dismissed opposition leader Bhutto's chances of winning elections.

He blamed Bhutto, who has called for him to relinquish power, for ruining chances of a deal which would see her serving as prime minister under his presidency.

"She disturbed the entire environment. She comes on a total confrontationalist approach," Musharraf said of Bhutto, who returned from eight years of self exile last month to lead her Pakistan People's Party in elections.

Bhutto, who was freed after three days of house arrest shortly before Negroponte's arrival, has said she does not trust Musharraf to allow her party a clear run and wants the Election Commissioner replaced.

But Musharraf, who referred to Bhutto as "the darling of the West," said it was the opposition and judges who had been interfering with the democratic process.

"It is she actually who may not be wanting elections in Pakistan and it is she who may want to go on to the agitational mode because her party is not in a state to win at all," he said.

"Therefore I will certainly go for the election despite of any agitation by her."

He promised that political opponents would be released from house arrest "in a few days" but said he was considering all options regarding holding elections under emergency rule.

Pakistan's Musharraf warns on nuke weapons (http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21844737/)

Russia readies nuclear fuel bound for Iran

Moscow pushes ahead with plans to supply Tehran with uranium after release of IAEA report, Iran welcomes move, says Russian commitment to its nuclear program 'a matter of principle'

Reuters
Published: 11.16.07, 21:40 / Israel News

Russia on Friday gave the clearest indication yet that it was ready to send uranium to fuel Iran's first atomic power station, upping the stakes in a diplomatic crisis surrounding Tehran's nuclear program.

Russia's state-run nuclear fuel producer said inspectors from the United Nations' nuclear watchdog would later this month start sealing nuclear fuel bound for the Bushehr plant, a major step to shipping the fuel to the Bushehr plant in Iran.

In a report on Iran issued on Thursday, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) said it had "made arrangements to verify and seal the fresh fuel foreseen (for Bushehr) on Nov. 26, before shipment of the fuel from Russia to Iran".

Russia has so far given no concrete date for when it will send the nuclear fuel to Bushehr, but says it would be sent six months before the plant's repeatedly delayed start-up.

According to Russian forecasts, the reactor at the plant could be started up in 2008 and nuclear fuel would have to arrive at the plant six months before that.

Iran: Russian approach encouraging

Iran's ambassador to Russia on Friday said nuclear fuel deliveries to the Islamic Republic were a "matter of principle", and hoped Moscow would send them soon.

"We hope that promises we have been receiving from official Russian representatives on such an important issue ... will soon be carried out and realized," Ambassador Gholamreza Ansari said.

The diplomat was speaking at a news conference held simultaneously with Russia's announcement on fuel inspections.

In Iran, nuclear officials welcomed the fuel delivery developments.

"Russia has formally informed (the IAEA) that it is ready for the Bushehr nuclear fuel in Russia to be checked and sealed on Nov. 26," IRNA quoted Mohammad Saeedi, deputy head of Iran's Atomic Energy Organization, as saying.

"This means, from a technical and legal point of view, the fuel for the Bushehr nuclear power plant is ready for transfer to Iran," he said.

The United States, Israel and key European Union nations suspect Iran is trying to build nuclear bombs.

But Russia, a veto-wielding member of the UN Security Council, says there is no evidence Tehran is seeking atomic weapons.

"Those offers we hear about the Bushehr AES from our Russian friends are encouraging for us," Ambassador Ansari said in Moscow.

"The issue of construction at Bushehr between Russian and Iranian societies is a matter of principle," Ansari said.

Tehran says a report by the IAEA this week has vindicated its repeated statements that its nuclear

program was purely civilian and showed that there would be no basis for further discussion of it in the United Nations Security Council.

The IAEA report, released on Thursday, said Iran had made important strides toward transparency about its nuclear activity but had yet to resolve outstanding questions. It also said Iran had expanded uranium enrichment.

Russia readies nuclear fuel bound for Iran (http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-3472284,00.html)

China deals blow to Western efforts to punish Iran

By Sophie Walker Fri Nov 16, 6:10 PM ET

LONDON (Reuters) - China has dealt a blow to Western efforts to increase diplomatic pressure on Iran over its nuclear program by dropping out of a meeting to discuss tougher sanctions against Tehran.

Russia, which like China opposes further U.N. sanctions against Iran, added fuel to the fire by announcing on Friday that the U.N. nuclear watchdog would soon start inspecting and sealing atomic fuel bound for an Iranian reactor.

The West fears Iran wants to develop atomic weapons but Iran denies this. Tehran says it wants only to generate electricity.

Political directors from Britain, France, Germany, the United States, Russia and China were due to meet on November 19 to assess reports about Tehran's nuclear program from the United Nations and from EU foreign policy chief Javier Solana.

"I think it's partly related to genuine travel difficulties, but also linked to resistance on the broader question of sanctions from that quarter," a European diplomatic source said of China's decision.

Russian state-owned nuclear fuel producer TVEL said inspectors from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) will begin preparatory work on November 26 until November 29 on a shipment of nuclear fuel bound for the Bushehr nuclear plant.

"We are ready to provide IAEA specialists with all the conditions they need to do their work," Konstantin Grabelnikov, deputy head of Russia's Novosibirsk Chemical Concentrate Plant, which is preparing the fuel, said in a statement.

Russia has given no specific date when it will send the nuclear fuel to Bushehr, but says it would be sent six months before the plant's start-up.

Because of payment delays, the plant's start-up has been put back to at least 2008, Russian officials have said.

EU SANCTIONS?

The United States said on Thursday it would work with its allies for a third round of U.N. sanctions after the IAEA reported Iran had made important strides towards clarifying past nuclear activities but also said major questions remained.

But some European diplomats say it may not be possible to persuade Russia and China -- both permanent veto-wielding members of the Security Council like France, Britain and the United States -- to support a third round.

As a result, France is pushing for the European Union to impose its own separate U.S.-style sanctions against Iran.

On Friday, French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner said the report had done little to clarify matters. "There remain areas of darkness in the operations which for a very long time were hidden by the Iranians in their nuclear development program."

While Russia and China appear to breaking away from the United States, Britain and France, the sixth country involved in negotiations -- Germany -- appeared to take a harder line.

"The foreign minister has made clear that if this is the case we would take up this issue in Europe and consider together what steps could be taken by Europe," spokesman Martin Jaeger told a regular news conference when asked what Germany would do if the Security Council failed to approve tougher sanctions.

Iran called on its Western enemies to apologize because the IAEA report showed Iran had been telling the truth about its atomic plans.

"The latest IAEA report confirms that Iran's nuclear activities are civilian and peaceful so what is the motive behind imposing sanction?" President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad told Al Arabiya television.

"The Iranian nuclear file is just a pretext ... should the nuclear folder be folded, they would find another pretext."

The United States has not ruled out military action if diplomacy fails to halt Iran's atomic work.

During a joint appearance with Japanese Prime Minister Yasuo Fukuda, President George W. Bush said Washington could "never tolerate" Iran developing nuclear capability.

"They should not imagine that if they wage such a war that the region alone would be set ablaze," said Ahmadinejad. "The region will be exposed to serious dangers and the first whose interests will be harmed are the Americans."

Israel, which in 1981 bombed the Osirak nuclear power plant in Iraq to cripple Saddam Hussein's secret atomic arms program, urged world powers to be tough on Iran.

"Israel believes it is incumbent upon the international community to send a crystal clear message to the leadership in Tehran that their nuclear program is unacceptable and must cease immediately," Foreign Ministry spokesman Mark Regev said.

China deals blow to Western efforts to punish Iran (http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20071116/wl_nm/iran_nuclear_dc)

Iran says ready to act if attacked

2 hours, 8 minutes ago

MANAMA (Reuters) - President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said on Saturday Iran was ready to respond if attacked, but played down the prospect of war with the United States.

Ahmadinejad was speaking during a visit to Bahrain which came amid mounting concerns in the Gulf that the United States could launch military action against Iran, although Washington says it is committed to a diplomatic solution to a crisis over Tehran's nuclear ambitions.

"We never want any war in this region, but from another front, we have made all preparations, and if there is any suspicion on this matter, then we are ready," said Ahmadinejad, speaking through an interpreter.

"I want to confirm again that we don't think there will be a war in the region," he told reporters, without giving reasons.

Ahmadinejad earlier told Al Arabiya television that the United States had no political, economic or military grounds for attack, and dismissed the U.S. military as "shabby."

The West accuses Iran of trying to build a nuclear bomb, but Iran says its nuclear ambitions are to generate electricity.

In a report on Thursday the U.N. nuclear watchdog said Iran had become more open in outlining its nuclear activities, but key questions remained unanswered. Washington says partial disclosure is not enough, and is pushing for sanctions.

Ahmadinejad challenged labeling the standoff a crisis, and said Iran had cooperated fully with the nuclear watchdog.

"We do not feel there is a crisis in this region ... or do countries in the region ... We think the crisis is in Washington," he said.

Ahmadinejad held talks on bilateral, regional and international issues with Bahraini royals and politicians, he said, but no new initiative to dampen tensions was announced. Bahrain's Foreign Minister Sheikh Khaled bin Ahmed al-Khalifa called for more diplomacy.

Saudi Arabia this month proposed to set up a consortium that would provide Iran with enriched uranium for peaceful purposes, but Iran said it would not halt its own enrichment program.

Gulf Arab countries are among those with the most to lose in the event of a conflict between Iran and the West, and have consistently warned against any slide into war.

The Gulf is the world's top oil exporting region, and its economies are booming on a near five-fold increase in oil prices since 2002.

Ahmadinejad called for greater cooperation with Gulf states to work together against what he said were U.S. plans to foster tension in the region. He later left Bahrain to attend an OPEC heads of state summit in the Saudi capital Riyadh.

Iran says ready to act if attacked (http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20071117/wl_nm/iran_usa_ahmadinejad_dc;_ylt=AsIDggzMuQ3yTR.ePMgLOBybOrgF)

Inevitable Iran-Turkey-Syria-Russia Alliance

TEHRAN (Fars News Agency)- The Middle East has acquired immense strategic value as one of the determining fulcrums in the global balance of power due to its being the world's largest known storehouse of low-cost energy supplies.

The region's geopolitical importance, the kaleidoscopic nature of politics among its states, the presence of volatile social and political forces within them and the interference of world superpowers all insure that the region will remain a potentially explosive source of tension for years.

Emboldened by its military strength after World War II, Moscow prepared to carve up its southern neighbors. It demanded territorial concessions and control of the Bosporus from Turkey and refused to withdraw from northern Iran, which it had occupied in 1941. Turkey and Iran rebuffed Soviet coercive diplomacy with the support of the United States and became key allies in the American effort to contain Soviet expansion.

The Central Treaty Organization (CENTO) was a defense alliance between Turkey, Iran, Pakistan and Great Britain. Originally named the Baghdad Pact, the name was changed when the Iraqi revolution led Iraq to withdraw in 1959. The United States had observer status in the alliance but was not a party to the treaty. The fall of the shah removed the American shield from Iran, sounded the death knell for the anti-Soviet CENTO alliance and sailed Iran towards new horizons.

Now the same faith is on the road for Turkey. The measureless and injudicious backup given by the occupying power in Iraq -- the US government -- to the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) and to Massoud Barzani, the former tribal leader of the Iraqi Kurds and now the leader of the Iraqi Kurdish region.

Turkey, taking into consideration the ongoing assaults by the PKK terrorists in the southeastern regions and the measureless backup given by US government to Iraqi Kurds, has drawn up a new strategic alliance policy that weakens ties with the US and strengthens relations with Iran and Syria, its millennium-long neighbors.

The US has failed to keep its promise to Turkey to confront the PKK. Turkey now feels that it has no choice but to attack the PKK's sanctuaries in northern Iraq together with Iran.

Iran is also suffering from similar assaults originating from the same terrorist group located in the Kurdish region of northern Iraq under the name of Party for a Free Life in Kurdistan (PJAK).

The US and Iran are increasingly at odds over a range of issues, and Turkey has stood nearby the US as an old and devoted ally for the past 57 years, but now the sympathy of Turkish people towards the US had fallen sharply over the past couple of years, and it will take decades for US to recover it.

It seems it is now mandatory for Turkey and Iran to form a common cooperative ground in regard to common problems and interests. New and stronger cooperative action in the economic field by Turkey and Iran will play a major role in the eradication of the political distrust and concerns between the two countries. The parties have announced an upcoming doubling of the volume of their trade.

Both countries have already agreed on the elimination of the main source of discord: support for each other's separatist and oppositional organizations. Iran has committed to adding the PKK to its list of "terrorist organizations." Turkey has done the same concerning the anti-Iran terrorist group "Mojahedin-e Khalq Organization (MKO)."

The second stage is the escalation of high-level cooperation between Turkey, Iran and Syria and this is moving forward, as well.

Aversion to American global policy, in particular to the actions of the US in Iraq, the common allies of Syria and Iran, and also shared economic interests, will lead to the merging of the political strategies of Russia and Turkey. Countries that were previously historical opponents will turn into partners in the creation of a new Eurasian coalition.

The final effect of the region's aversion to American policies will be the formation of the "union of four:" Russia, Turkey, Iran and Syria. Of course, this rapprochement between Ankara, Moscow, Damascus and Tehran will definitely affect Washington's position in the Middle East.

Inevitable Iran-Turkey-Syria-Russia Alliance (http://english.farsnews.com/newstext.php?nn=8608140338)

Jihadists Gain Even More Ground in Pakistan
November 16, 2007

Although Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf's forces continue to crack the skulls--quite literally--of the refomers and pro-democracy demonstrators that have taken to the streets since he declared a state of Emerrgency November 3rd, they may want rest their batons for a second and take a glance to the west. Because in Pakistan's Northwest Frontier Province, the Taliban and other assorted jihadists are gaining more and more ground--and the situation there may have reached the point of no return. From the New York Times:

Gen. Pervez Musharraf, the Pakistani president, says he instituted emergency rule for the extra powers it would give him to push back the militants who have carved out a mini-state in Pakistan’s tribal areas.

But in the last several days, the militants have extended their reach, capturing more territory in Pakistan’s settled areas and chasing away frightened policemen, local government officials said.

As inconspicuous as it might be in a nation of 160 million people, the takeover of the small Alpuri district headquarters this week was considered a particular embarrassment for General Musharraf. It showed how the militants could still thumb their noses at the Pakistani Army.

In fact, local officials and Western diplomats said, there is little evidence that the 12-day-old emergency decree has increased the government’s leverage in fighting the militants, or that General Musharraf has used the decree to take any extraordinary steps to combat them.

Instead, it has proved more of a distraction, they said, forcing General Musharraf to concentrate on his own political survival, even as the army starts its first offensive operation since the Nov. 3 decree.

The success of the militants in Swat has caused new concern in Washington about the ability and the will of Pakistani forces to fight the militants who are now training their sights directly on Pakistan’s government, not only on the NATO and American forces across the border in Afghanistan, Western officials said.

After several weeks of heavy clashes, the militants largely control Swat, the mountainous region that is the scenic jewel of Pakistan, and are pushing into Shangla, to the east. All of the sites lie deeper inside Pakistan than the tribal areas, on the Afghan border, where Al Qaeda, the Taliban and assorted foreign and local militants have expanded a stronghold in recent years. In Alpuri, the administrative headquarters of Shangla, a crowd of militants easily took over the police station, despite the emergency decree, Mayor Ibad Khan said.

“They came straight to the police station; it was empty,” he said in a telephone interview. The district police officer had run away. “I am still searching for him,” Mr. Khan said. Asked why the police station was empty, he said, “I am asking myself the same question.”

Jihadists Gain Even More Ground in Pakistan (http://www.cbn.com/CBNnews/271462.aspx)

Putin warns NATO against border build-up

11 hours ago

MOSCOW (AFP) — President Vladimir Putin warned NATO against "muscle-flexing" on Russia's border Tuesday and ordered top generals to raise the combat readiness of the country's nuclear missiles.

Meanwhile, the armed forces chief of staff, General Yury Baluyevsky, also confirmed that Russia would suspend adherence to a key Cold War arms treaty on December 12, news agencies reported.

"In violation of previous agreements, certain member countries of the NATO alliance are increasing their resources next to our borders," Putin told a meeting of defence chiefs in Moscow in comments broadcast on state television.

"Russia cannot remain indifferent to the clear muscle-flexing," he said.

The Kremlin leader, who earlier this year threatened to target nuclear missiles at Europe, said he wanted the atomic arsenal put on a higher level of readiness.

"One of the most important tasks remains raising the combat readiness of the strategic nuclear forces. They should be ready to deliver a quick and adequate reply to any aggressor," Interfax quoted him as saying.

Baluyevsky told the meeting of top brass that Russia would "certainly" suspend its participation in the Conventional Forces in Europe (CFE) treaty on December 12.

"We will certainly fulfil this ruling exactly on time," Baluyevsky was quoted by Interfax news agency as saying, following a vote in parliament to suspend application of the CFE.

However, Putin left the door open to Russia resuming participation, saying Moscow will "re-examine the possibility of renewing its obligations after our partners join the adapted treaty and, more importantly, implement it."

The 1990 CFE treaty places strict limitations on the deployment of tanks and other military hardware across Europe.

Russia says it cannot stick to the CFE rules until members of the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) ratify an updated version of the accord.

NATO has said it will do so only when Russia pulls its forces out of two ex-Soviet republics -- Georgia and Moldova.

The treaty's demise highlights deteriorating relations between Moscow and countries of the Atlantic alliance as Putin's administration pushes to reassert Russia on the international stage.

Putin ordered the CFE moratorium on July 13 amid a row over US plans to install an anti-missile shield in eastern Europe. Last Friday, the senate voted unanimous approval of the decree.

NATO criticised the decision as "regrettable."

Earlier this month, Deputy Defence Minister Alexander Kolmakov said that plans were being considered for boosting troop deployments on Russia's western flank, something impossible under the CFE.

Russia has also this year renewed long-distance strategic bomber patrols and to withdraw from other bedrock disarmament treaties dating from the Cold War.

Adding to the tension is the growing unease in the West with wide-ranging limitations imposed by Putin on democratic reforms and what critics call Russia's aggressive use of massive energy resources.

Moscow accuses Washington of interfering in Russia's backyard and attempting to rule the world as the sole superpower.

Putin warns NATO against border build-up (http://afp.google.com/article/ALeqM5hvFYh6UrA3KiWQzWZJbt-334mKaw)

Russia to provide Egypt with nuclear expertise
By Reuters

Russia has agreed to provide nuclear know-how and technical expertise to Egypt to help Cairo with plans to build civilian nuclear power stations to meet growing energy needs, Egyptian state media said on Tuesday.

State news agency MENA said Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Kislyak had told Egypt that Moscow welcomed the planned resumption of Egypt's nuclear program.

"Moscow is ready to give nuclear knowledge and its technical expertise to the Egyptian side in light of Russia's large experience in building nuclear power stations," MENA said, quoting a foreign ministry spokesman.

Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak said last month Egypt would build several nuclear power stations, a year after his politician son Gamal floated the idea of a civilian nuclear program, but did not indicate when the project would get under way.

Cairo suspended a peaceful nuclear program after the Chernobyl disaster in 1986. The London-based International Institute of Strategic Studies said the first 1,000-megawatt reactor could be built at Dabaa on the Mediterranean in eight to 10 years if foreign investment was secured.

Washington has said it supports Egypt's plans to develop peaceful nuclear energy. In addition to Russia, China and Kazakhstan have offered cooperation.

Officials put Egypt's oil and gas reserves at 15.5 billion barrels of oil
equivalent, enough for 34 years at current production rates.

The elder Mubarak has said rising oil prices would nudge the government's energy subsidies to around 50 billion Egyptian pounds ($9 billion) in the current fiscal year starting in July from 43.8 billion pounds in the previous year.

Egypt ratified the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty in 1981 and has two research reactors. The UN International Atomic Energy Agency probed Egyptian "failures" in reporting nuclear research in 2004, but concluded that the experiments were not weapons-related.

Gamal Mubarak's initial proposal had been greeted with skepticism by opposition groups, which dismissed his announcement as a media stunt designed to bolster his credentials. The 79-year-old president, in power since 1981, is widely believed to be preparing Gamal, a senior ruling party official, to succeed him. Both father and son deny this.

Russia to provide Egypt with nuclear expertise (http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/926208.html)

Fatah Charter Calls to 'Eradicate' Israel

by Nissan Ratzlav-Katz

(IsraelNN.com) The Conference of Presidents of Major American Jewish Organizations is deliberating a proposed statement calling on Palestinian Authority Chairman Mahmoud Abbas to change the Fatah charter, which calls to "eradicate" Israel. US Congressmen have submitted a similar resolution in the House of Representatives.

The proposed statement details those clauses of the Fatah charter, drafted in 1964 and never repealed, that call for the "demolition" of the State of Israel, as well as "the eradication of the Zionist economic, political, military and cultural existence.”

Towards that goal, the charter endorses "armed struggle" as "a strategy and not a tactic, to uproot the Zionist existence." The Fatah organization, headed by Abbas, also calls on the world community "to prevent Jewish immigration" to Israel. Fatah, according to its charter, "opposes any political solution."

The statement on the Fatah charter, drafted and presented to the President's Conference by the Zionist Organization of America (ZOA), calls on Abbas to rescind the anti-Israel, anti-Semitic and pro-terrorism clauses of the Fatah charter. "Rescinding these clauses," the statement reads, "would be an important confidence-building measure which would help to create a better environment to achieve progress in the peace talks."

Malcolm Hoenlein, Vice Chairman of the Presidents Conference, said there has been very limited opposition to the ZOA proposal. Approval by at least two-thirds of the Conference's 50 member organizations is needed in order to issue the statement.

Palestinian Authority officials identified with Abbas claim that Fatah decisions from 1989 allegedly recognizing Israel superseded the Fatah charter's call for Israel's violent demise. However, current Fatah websites carry the charter in its full, original and unaltered form, including the offending clauses. In addition, Abbas's chief negotiator, Saeb Erekat, recently rejected recognition of any Jewish State whatsoever when pressed on the issue by Prime Minister Ehud Olmert.

Call for Fatah Charter Revisions in US Congress
US House Republican Whip Roy Blunt (R-MO) and US Congresswoman Shelley Berkley (D-NV) introduced a resolution (H. Res.758) earlier this month that urges Abbas to officially abrogate 10 articles in the Fatah charter that call for Israel's destruction and for the continuation of terrorism.

Introducing the resolution, Blunt said, "There can be no reasonable expectation of a broad-based, long-term reconciliation between the Israelis and Palestinians while one side's constituting document calls for the complete destruction of the other. I believe it's absolutely critical that the insidious nature of [this] be brought to light - and that those with a genuine interest in working toward peace insist its most unconstructive provisions be abrogated from the text.... As long as Mahmoud Abbas and the Fatah Party continue to promote the wholesale destruction of Israel, there can be no possibility for peace – whether in our time, or any other."

In a joint letter to their colleagues, Berkley and Blunt wrote, "Since the electoral victory of Hamas, and its subsequent takeover of Gaza, the Fatah Party headed by Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas has gone out of its way to convince the international community that it represents the best hope for reconciliation and should be given additional resources to carry out its goals.... But what most people don't know is that the Fatah Party's constitution, or party platform, still contains no fewer than 10 clauses calling for the destruction of Israel and terrorism against Israel, as well as expressing opposition to any political solution...."

The Ten Clauses
The ten clauses of the Fatah charter singled out in the proposed House resolution and in the President's Conference proposed statement include:

Article 22: "Opposing any political solution offered as an alternative to demolishing the Zionist occupation in Palestine, as well as any project intended to liquidate the Palestinian cause or impose any international mandate on its people."

Article 12: "Complete liberation of Palestine, and eradication of Zionist economic, political, military, and cultural existence.

Article 19: "Armed struggle is a strategy and not a tactic, and the Palestinian Arab People's armed revolution is a decisive factor in the liberation fight and in uprooting the Zionist existence, and this struggle will not cease unless the Zionist state is demolished and Palestine is completely liberated."

Article 17: "Armed public revolution is the inevitable method to liberating Palestine."

Article 23: "Maintaining relations with Arab countries … with the provision that the armed struggle is not negatively affected."

Article 8: "The Israeli existence in Palestine is a Zionist invasion with a colonial expansive base, and it is a natural ally to colonialism and international imperialism."

Article 7: "The Zionist Movement is racial, colonial, and aggressive in ideology, goals, organization, and method."

Article 24: "Maintaining relations with all liberal forces supporting our just struggle in order to resist together Zionism and imperialism."

Article 4: "The Palestinian struggle is part and parcel of the world-wide struggle against Zionism, colonialism, and international imperialism."

Article 25: "Convincing concerned countries in the world to prevent Jewish immigration to Palestine as a method of solving the problem."

Fatah Charter Calls to 'Eradicate' Israel (http://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/124315)

Putin promises 'total renewal' of Russian leadership
11.21.07, 8:25 AM ET

MOSCOW (Thomson Financial) - Russian President Vladimir Putin promised on Wednesday a 'total renewal' of the country's leadership over the course of forthcoming parliamentary and presidential elections.

'In the months to come we will have a total renewal of the top leadership of the state,' he told a rally of several thousand supporters in Moscow, less than two weeks before parliamentary polls.

Recent weeks have seen growing calls by supporters for Putin to stay on in a leadership role, despite a constitutional bar on him holding the presidency more than twice in a row.

Putin is due to step down after a presidential poll in March, but is standing as the lead candidate of the United Russia party in parliamentary elections on Dec 2.

In his speech at a Western-style election rally at a Moscow sports stadium, Putin urged his supporters to work for victory in the parliamentary elections in order to ensure a smooth transition.

He also took a swipe at opponents who he likened to 'jackals', accusing them of seeking foreign funding to help undermine the country, and said Russia's tycoons were planning to regain power.

'Unfortunately in our country there are people who are like jackals outside the foreign embassies... They count on the support of foreign funds,' he said to cheers from the crowd.

Putin said that such people wanted 'a Russia that is weak and sick, a society that is disoriented and divided'.

'They want to go out into the streets, they've learnt from Western specialists. They've trained in neighbouring republics. Now they want to cause provocations,' he added.

Popular uprisings in neighbouring Ukraine and Georgia have brought down governments that have been replaced with more Western-friendly administrations.

The Kremlin leader hit out at powerful tycoons and their allies who held sway under former president Boris Yeltsin, warning: 'They want revenge, a return to power, a return to the spheres of influence and the restoration of an oligarchical regime based on corruption and lies.'

The event was organised by United Russia and the For Putin movement, formed one week ago to push for the president to remain as national leader.

Some analysts have speculated that he could step down for a brief period before coming back as president for another term or could take on some other role as a national father figure.

'It's painful to imagine life without Putin. We fear that without him it will be chaos,' said Kristina Rastvorova, a member of the youth group Nashi (Ours) who was among activists waving placards with names of their home towns.

Polls show Putin's United Russia party will pick up some 67 pct of votes in the parliamentary poll, making it by far the dominant force in the State Duma lower house.

Ten opposition parties are trying to mount a challenge to United Russia in the election campaign and have complained of unfair election rules that favour Putin's party.

Opposition leader Grigory Yavlinsky, whose liberal reform party Yabloko is not expected to win seats in the vote, lamented that Russia was heading toward Soviet-style single-party rule.

'The elections are the prologue of a transition from an authoritarian and totalitarian state to a semi-dictatorial state that aspires to become a system in which Putin becomes president for life,' he told a news conference.

Putin promises 'total renewal' of Russian leadership (http://www.forbes.com/afxnewslimited/feeds/afx/2007/11/21/afx4363287.html)

Putin urges support for Kremlin-backed party, slams opponents
16:44 | 21/ 11/ 2007

MOSCOW, November 21 (RIA Novosti) - Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Wednesday that victory for the ruling United Russia party in December 2 parliamentary elections was crucial for the country's further development.

Speaking to thousands of supporters gathered in the stadium used for the 1980 Moscow Olympics opening and closing ceremonies, Vladimir Putin, who tops the party's election list, said: "In order for the future parliament and president to work efficiently, cooperating with each other for the benefit of people, we need victory."

Putin said it was vital to ensure the continuity of current policy through the parliamentary and presidential polls in December and March respectively.

"The current stability, economic growth, peace, and rising, albeit moderately, living standards are the result of the continuous political struggle at home and on the world scene," Putin said, warning that the West would prefer to see "a weak, ill Russia with a disorganized and split society."

He also said some political forces inside the country were seeking support from foreign governments and funds, rather than their own people. Criticizing Western-leaning opposition groups, he said they were attempting to restore an "oligarchic regime based on corruption and lies," referring to the turbulent 1990s which brought fortunes to a handful of Kremlin-connected tycoons while impoverishing millions of ordinary Russians.

"They are planning to take to the streets. They have been trained by Western experts, have gained some experience in neighboring [ex-Soviet] republics, and will now try their hand here," the president said, without specifying names or organizations.

While Putin heads the United Party candidate list, he is not a party member and may choose not to take a seat in the State Duma, the lower house of parliament. He has so far declined supporters' appeals to amend the Constitution and run for a third consecutive term, at the same time refusing to be drawn on his future plans.

Putin's move to head United Russia's candidate list has been seen as designed to secure a large parliamentary majority for the party and help the Kremlin further tighten its grip on the political system.

The latest opinion surveys put United Russia in the lead with a little under 60% of popular support, slightly down on previous weeks. The Communists and the nationalist Liberal Democrats are the only two other forces likely to overcome the 7% threshold for the State Duma.

Other parties, including the liberal Yabloko and Union of Right Forces - champions of western-style democracy and free market reforms in the 1990s - are likely to receive 1% of the vote in December's polls.

A number of opposition parties in the coalition The Other Russia movement, including chess grandmaster Garry Kasparov's United Civic Front, have been denied registration for the upcoming elections.

Putin urges support for Kremlin-backed party, slams opponents (http://en.rian.ru/russia/20071121/88967504)

Iran warns of domino effect of nuclear attack

By Damien McElroy, Foreign Affairs Correspondent
Last Updated: 12:18pm GMT 22/11/2007

Iran warned today that an attack on its nuclear facilities would trigger a "domino" effect across the Middle East as deeply divided world powers met to review Teheran's co-operation with United Nations resolutions.

Mohamed ElBaradei, the head of the UN's International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has endorsed Iranian promises that access to suspected nuclear facilities will increase in the months ahead.

At a meeting of the body's 35-country board of governors in Vienna today, battle lines were drawn both over Mr ElBaradei's faith in an Iranian blueprint and the text of the IAEA's latest report which said Iran had cleared up several key questions about its past research.

America and Britain are pushing for the UN to quickly impose a third round of sanctions on Iran to reinforce the drive to close the Islamic Republic's secret programme of atomic research, which appears to be slowly yielding the capability to make a nuclear weapon.

China and Russia, which have not yet swung behind new sanctions, appear poised to back Mr ElBaradei's calls for negotiators to be given more time.

"ElBaradei wants to get across that Iran has shown real willingness to co-operate and we are making important progress, so let's stick with it," said a Vienna-based diplomat.

His argument is unlikely to impress those nations alarmed by a line in his nine-page report - released last week - conceding the IAEA's knowledge of Teheran's current atomic activities was "diminishing".

The UN Security Council has adopted two rounds of sanctions resolutions against Teheran since last December.

Teheran has responded with a mixture of bluster and apparent readiness to negotiate.

Negotiations with the European Union's chief foreign policy official, Javier Solana, over a compensation package in return for Iran suspending all its efforts to enrich uranium are scheduled to take place in London next week.

Iran's newly installed chief negotiator, Saeed Jalili, said today that a slide to war would lead to a backlash against the West across the region, including in Iraq and Afghanistan, where American leads an international military coalition.

"Playing with security of Iran is like dominos," he said. "We believe the world powers are aware about Iran's effective role in the global security. Our role in Afghanistan and Iraq is in direction with peace, stability and improving governments there."

Iran warns of domino effect of nuclear attack (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2007/11/22/wiran122.xml)

The reason I'm posting this here is because of Hugo's support of Iran.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Venezuelans struggle to find food

By IAN JAMES, Associated Press Writer Tue Nov 20, 4:09 PM ET

CARACAS, Venezuela - The lines formed at dawn and remained long throughout the day — hundreds upon hundreds of Venezuelans waiting to buy scarce milk, chicken and sugar at state-run outdoor markets staffed by soldiers in fatigues.

President Hugo Chavez's government is trying to cope with shortages of some foods, and the lines at state-run "Megamercal" street markets show many Venezuelans are willing to wait for hours to snap up a handful of products they seldom find in supermarkets.

"You have to get in line and you have to be lucky," said Maria Fernandez, a 64-year-old housewife who was trying to buy milk and chicken on Sunday.

The lines for basic foods at subsidized prices are paradoxical for an oil-rich nation that in many ways is a land of plenty. Shopping malls are bustling, new car sales are booming and privately owned supermarkets are stocked with American potato chips, French wines and Swiss Gruyere cheese.

Yet other foods covered by price controls — eggs, chicken — periodically are hard to find in supermarkets. Fresh milk has become a luxury, and even baby formula is scarcer nowadays.

The shortages are prompting some Venezuelans to question Chavez's economic policies while he campaigns for constitutional changes that, if approved in a Dec. 2 referendum, would let him run for re-election indefinitely.

Some government officials accuse producers of keeping basic goods off the market to profiteer or to sow discontent among Venezuela's poor, Chavez's core supporters.

Economists say the factors behind the shortages are numerous, including surging demand due to economic growth.

The government's price controls are also "totally divorced" from reality — in some cases below production costs — making it unprofitable for suppliers to sell their products at official prices, said economist Pedro Palma of the Caracas consulting firm MetroEconomica.

More investment is needed in agriculture, but the government's agrarian reform effort — assuming control of vast farmlands and offering them to poor farmers — has made traditional producers reluctant to invest, he said.

Importers also face hurdles. Currency exchange controls imposed in 2003 require state approval to obtain dollars at the official rate. Those without it turn to the black market, buying dollars for about three times the fixed rate.

To compound the problem, Palma said, some of the products Venezuela looks to import, such as milk and sugar, are scarce internationally.

Many Venezuelans in line at the Megamercal said they were grateful to Chavez for subsidized markets offering prices far cheaper than commercial supermarkets. But they also complained of struggling to find milk, chicken, sugar and cooking oil elsewhere at prices set by the government.

"I arrived at 6 in the morning to get in line," said Doris Bastida, 32, a mother of four who wheeled an infant son in a stroller. She had been waiting for about four hours when she reached the entrance.

"What am I going to do? I don't have anywhere else to go," she said. Powdered milk is sold by black market street vendors at $4.50 or more for a 16-ounce container — about twice the regulated price and four times the price offered by the state markets.

Bastida said she still believes in Chavez and plans to vote in favor of his reforms "so that things will get better." Plus, she said, if "everyone votes 'No,' they're going to take the Megamercal away from us."

Others, speaking in hushed tones, said they see Chavez's government as a failure and do not want him to run again in 2012.

"We have to vote 'No,'" said 50-year-old Fatima Rodriguez. "Do you think it's good to be here waiting in line?"

Chavez says he is aiming to boost agriculture with projects including state-supported sugar harvesting and a milk processing plant started with help from Iran. For now, Venezuela imports most of its food, and imports overall have more than doubled in the past three years.

Chavez's food minister, Gen. Rafael Oropeza, said the open-air markets were fully stocked across the country over the weekend, with a record 6,557 tons of food delivered for sale nationwide on Sunday. He said leg of pork was imported because local suppliers declined to participate.

"I'm putting out a call to businesses for them to raise production and respond to the demand," Oropeza said, according to the newspaper El Nacional. He suggested there were political motives behind the shortages.

"That's the objective, that the people reach the point of desperation," Oropeza said.

The Venezuelan Food Industry Chamber denied its members are to blame, saying they are working to satisfy rapidly growing consumer demand.

At one state market in Caracas, the line snaked around a block Sunday, while soldiers manned barricades at the entrance. A banner read, "Continue on with Chavez." Red campaign signs plastered on walls urged: "Yes, with Chavez."

Factory worker Eugenio Ruiz praised Chavez for the subsidized food and said he plans to vote "Yes."

"Look at all he's done for us," Ruiz said, explaining he thinks the situation would be worse without Chavez. "We have to stay with him, not abandon him."

Venezuelans struggle to find food (http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20071120/ap_on_re_la_am_ca/venezuela_shortages;_ylt=AsGQvx4K4vKpgndSy1ChRH.3IxIF)

U.S. gives Russia new missile proposals
Thu Nov 22, 2007 1:14pm EST

MOSCOW (Reuters) - The United States has formally made new proposals to Russia aimed at easing tension over its missile defense plans in Europe, the Russian Foreign Ministry said on Thursday.

Russia has denounced U.S. plans to deploy a radar in the Czech Republic and interceptor missiles in Poland as a threat to its security. It offered building up a joint missile defense system instead but this idea has aroused little interest in Washington.

Washington promised to set out its latest proposals to Moscow in writing following talks between foreign and defense ministers last month.

"... the American side has finally, and late at night, passed to Russia written proposals regarding anti-missile defense systems. We are studying them," Foreign Ministry spokesman Andrei Krivtsov said.

He gave no details of the substance of the proposals.

Following discussions on October 11-12, U.S. officials said the suggestions included stationing Russian and American liaison officers at each other's missile defense facilities as part of a broader joint effort to protect against missile attacks.

In a bid to ease Russian concerns, Washington also said last month it had offered to delay activation of parts of its missile shield in Europe if Russia cooperated on the project.

Washington says it needs the European installations to avert potential missile attacks from Iran. Russia, which doubts Iran will have intercontinental missiles in the foreseeable future, has offered to share Qabala radar station it leases in Azerbaijan.

While Washington has made clear it was ready to cooperate with Russia, it said the Russian offer was an addition rather than a replacement for its missile shield plan.

Russian President Vladimir Putin also proposed setting up a joint missile defense system, which would include European countries.

Earlier this week Putin said Moscow would not remain indifferent to NATO's "muscle-flexing" and said Russia's nuclear forces would be ready for an adequate response to any aggressor.

U.S. gives Russia new missile proposals (http://www.reuters.com/articlePrint?articleId=USL2227108320071122)

Rival factions return to arms as Lebanon stares into the abyss
November 23, 2007

Nicholas Blanford in Beirut

The centre of Beirut will be a sealed-off military zone today as MPs gather to elect a new president in a last-ditch attempt to prevent Lebanon from plunging into chaos and violence.

Émile Lahoud, the pro-Syrian head of state, leaves office at midnight today, but despite intense international mediation, no agreement appears to have been reached on a new president acceptable to the bitterly divided political camps.

The US-backed March 14 block, which holds a slim majority, has said that it will attend today’s session of parliament and threatened to elect a president from their own ranks if a consensus candidate is not found.

But the pro-Syrian Opposition, led by the powerful Shia Hezbollah party, says that it will boycott the election and has hinted it will respond by forming a rival government, a move that many Lebanese fear will lead to violence between heavily armed rival factions and tear the country apart.

That grim outlook appeared to draw closer last night with political sources saying that the continued lack of agreement could lead to the election being postponed, plunging Lebanon into constitutional limbo.

“Last day before zero hour: either a miracle or vacuum,” the An-Nahar daily headline said yesterday.

The foreign ministers of France, Spain and Italy are in Beirut shuttling between political leaders to push for agreement over the choice of president. In a further sign of international concern, President Sarkozy of France spoke by phone on Wednesday to Saad Hariri, head of the antiSyrian block, and Michel Aoun, the opposition candidate for president.

All three European countries contribute to a 13,300-strong United Nations peacekeeping force in south Lebanon and are aware that their soldiers would be at even greater risk if Lebanon fell apart.

Also at risk are MPs belonging to the March 14 block, more than 40 of whom have spent the past two months holed up in an annex of the five-star Phoenicia hotel in central Beirut. Four of their colleagues have been murdered since the June 2005 general election. Visitors pass through metal detectors and are escorted by bodyguards to meeting rooms.

The curtains are kept closed to avoid sniper fire. On the rare occasions MPs travel, they go in small unmarked cars and remove the chips from their mobile phones so that they cannot be tracked.

“The guys are all depressed staying here. It’s like a prison,” said Mosbah Ahdab, an MP from Tripoli, who moved into the hotel on Monday.

In an attempt to break the impasse last week, France persuaded Cardinal Nasrallah Sfeir, the patriarch of the Maronite church, to submit a list of candidates from which the rival factions could select a president. Lebanon’s sectarian power-sharing system decrees that the president must be a Maronite. But neither camp is showing any sign of flexibility.

With Lebanon’s political woes inextricably linked to broader tensions in the Middle East, few expect an imminent solution, further complicating international efforts to secure a peace agreement at a summit in Annapolis next week.

The Lebanese Government is supported by the United States, France and Saudi Arabia, which seek to disarm Hezbollah and keep Lebanon within a pro-Western orbit – free from Syrian influence and an obstacle to Iran’s regional ambitions.

The Lebanese Opposition prefers to keep Lebanon aligned with Iran and Syria, distrusting Washington’s interest in Lebanon, which it believes seeks only to weaken Hezbollah and protect Israel.

“Everyone in Lebanon is waiting for the balance of power in the region to clarify itself,” Paul Salem, director of the Carnegie Endowment’s Middle East Centre in Beirut, said.

The worsening crisis has resulted in a surge in black market arms sales as worried Lebanese protect themselves from an uncertain future. The weapon of choice is the AK47 assault rifle. A year ago the most popular version of this classic weapon, the 1977-vintage “circle 11” (named after the markings stamped into the rifle’s metal work), cost £250. Today it is worth about £450. “People are buying guns more than ever. They are expecting a war,” said Abu Jamil, an arms dealer.

The rise in arms sales has led to an increase in shooting practice in the Lebanese mountains, where the distant crackle of rifle fire is becoming common at weekends. The unrelenting political crisis and speculation that militias are being formed has left many Lebanese aghast at the thought that the country could be sliding into civil war once more.

“How can we even be thinking of war again? Have we learnt nothing?” Hadi Sfeir, 42, a shopkeeper, asked.

A civil rights group called Khalass – Arabic for Enough! - began a series of actions this week to highlight the disgust it feels toward the political class. “We are extremely frustrated. I don’t think the politicians care about what ordinary Lebanese care about like the economy and being able to live in peace with each other,” Carmen Jeha, an activist with Khalass, said.

Rival factions return to arms as Lebanon stares into the abyss (http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/middle_east/article2926154.ece)

A plan to attack Iran swiftly and from above

A bombing campaign has been in the works for months - a blistering air war that would last anywhere from one day to two weeks

PAUL KORING
November 22, 2007 at 5:11 AM EST

WASHINGTON — Massive, devastating air strikes, a full dose of "shock and awe" with hundreds of bunker-busting bombs slicing through concrete at more than a dozen nuclear sites across Iran is no longer just the idle musing of military planners and uber-hawks.

Although air strikes don't seem imminent as the U.S.-Iranian drama unfolds, planning for a bombing campaign and preparing for the geopolitical blowback has preoccupied military and political councils for months.

No one is predicting a full-blown ground war with Iran. The likeliest scenario, a blistering air war that could last as little as one night or as long as two weeks, would be designed to avoid the quagmire of invasion and regime change that now characterizes Iraq. But skepticism remains about whether any amount of bombing can substantially delay Iran's entry into the nuclear-weapons club.

Attacking Iran has gone far beyond the twilight musings of a lame-duck president. Almost all of those jockeying to succeed U.S. President George W. Bush are similarly bellicose. Both front-runners, Democrat Senator Hillary Clinton and Republican Rudy Giuliani, have said that Iran's ruling mullahs can't be allowed to go nuclear. "Iran would be very sure if I were president of the United States that I would not allow them to become nuclear," said Mr. Giuliani. Ms. Clinton is equally hard-line.

Nor does the threat come just from the United States. As hopes fade that sanctions and common sense might avert a military confrontation with Tehran - as they appear to have done with North Korea - other Western leaders are openly warning that bombing may be needed.

Unless Tehran scraps its clandestine and suspicious nuclear program and its quest for weapons-grade uranium (it already has the missiles capable of delivering an atomic warhead), the world will be "faced with an alternative that I call catastrophic: an Iranian bomb or the bombing of Iran," French President Nicolas Sarkozy has warned.

Bombing Iran would be relatively easy. Its antiquated air force and Russian air-defence missiles would be easy pickings for the U.S. warplanes.

But effectively destroying Iran's widely scattered and deeply buried nuclear facilities would be far harder, although achievable, according to air-power experts. But the fallout, especially the anger sown across much of the Muslim world by another U.S.-led attack in the Middle East, would be impossible to calculate.

Israel has twice launched pre-emptive air strikes ostensibly to cripple nuclear programs. In both instances, against Iraq in 1981 and Syria two months ago, the targeted regimes howled but did nothing.

The single-strike Israeli attacks would seem like pinpricks, compared with the rain of destruction U.S. warplanes would need to kneecap Iran's far larger nuclear network.

"American air strikes on Iran would vastly exceed the scope of the 1981 Israeli attack on the Osirak nuclear centre in Iraq, and would more resemble the opening days of the 2003 air campaign against Iraq," said John Pike, director at Globalsecurity.org, a leading defence and security group.

"Using the full force of operational B-2 stealth bombers, staging from Diego Garcia or flying direct from the United States," along with warplanes from land bases in the region and carriers at sea, at least two-dozen suspected nuclear sites would be targeted, he said.

Although U.S. ground forces are stretched thin with nearly 200,000 fighting in Iraq and Afghanistan, the firepower of the U.S. air force and the warplanes aboard aircraft carriers could easily overwhelm Iran's defences, leaving U.S. warplanes in complete command of the skies and free to pound targets at will.

With air bases close by in neighbouring Iraq and Afghanistan, including Kandahar, and naval-carrier battle groups in the Persian Gulf and Indian Ocean, hundreds of U.S. warplanes serviced by scores of airborne refuellers could deliver a near constant hail of high explosives.

Fighter-bombers and radar-jammers would spearhead any attack. B-2 bombers, each capable of delivering 20 four-tonne bunker-busting bombs, along with smaller stealth bombers and streams of F-18s from the carriers could maintain an open-ended bombing campaign.

"They could keep it up until the end of time, which might be hastened by the bombing," Mr. Pike said. "They could make the rubble jump; there's plenty of stuff to bomb," he added, a reference to the now famous line from former defence secretary Donald Rumsfeld that Afghanistan was a "target-poor" country.

Mr. Pike believes it could all be over in a single night. Others predict days, or even weeks, of sustained bombing.

Unidentified Pentagon planners have been cited talking of "1,500 aim points." What is clear is that a score or more known nuclear sites would be destroyed. Some, in remote deserts, would present little risk of "collateral damage," military jargon for unintended civilian causalities. Others, like laboratories at the University of Tehran, in the heart of a teeming capital city, would be hard to destroy without killing innocent Iranians.

What would likely unfold would be weeks of escalating tension, following a breakdown of diplomatic efforts.

The next crisis point may come later this month if the UN Security Council becomes deadlocked over further sanctions.

"China and Russia are more concerned about the prospect of the U.S. bombing Iran than of Iran getting a nuclear bomb," says Karim Sadjadpour, an Iran expert at the Council on Foreign Relations.

Tehran remains defiant. Our enemies "must know that Iran will not give the slightest concession ... to any power," Iran's fiery President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said yesterday. For his part, Mr. Bush has pointedly refused to rule out resorting to war. Last month, another U.S. naval battle group - including the nuclear-powered aircraft carrier USS Harry S Truman with 100 warplanes on board and the Canadian frigate HMCS Charlottetown as one of its screen of smaller warships - left for the Persian Gulf. At least one, and often two, carrier battle groups are always in the region.

Whether even weeks of bombing would cripple Iran's nuclear program cannot be known. Mr. Pike believes it would set back, by a decade or more, the time Tehran needs to develop a nuclear warhead. But Iran's clandestine program - international inspectors were completely clueless as to the existence of several major sites until exiles ratted out the mullahs - may be so extensive that even the longest target list will miss some.

"It's not a question of whether we can do a strike or not and whether the strike could be effective," retired Marine general Anthony Zinni told Time magazine. "It certainly would be, to some degree. But are you prepared for all that follows?"

Attacked and humiliated, Iran might be tempted, as Mr. Ahmadinejad has suggested, to strike back, although Iran has limited military options.

At least some Sunni governments in the region, not least Saudi Arabia, would be secretly delighted to see the Shia mullahs in Tehran bloodied. But the grave risk of any military action spiralling into a regional war, especially if Mr. Ahmadinejad tried to make good on his threat to attack Israel, remains.

"Arab leaders would like to see Iran taken down a notch," said Steven Cook, an analyst specializing in the Arab world at the Council on Foreign Relations, "but their citizens will see this as what they perceive to be America's ongoing war on Islam."

cont'd next post

Building tension

The confrontation with Iran over its nuclear program has been simmering for more than five years. These are some of the key flashpoints.

August, 2002: Iranian exiles say that Tehran has built a vast uranium enrichment plant at Natanz and a heavy water plant at Arak without informing the United Nations.

December, 2002: The existence of the sites is confirmed by satellite photographs shown on U.S. television. The United States accuses Tehran of "across-the-board pursuit of weapons of mass destruction." Iran agrees to inspections by the International Atomic Energy Agency.

June, 2003: IAEA director Mohamed ElBaradei accuses Iran of not revealing the extent of its nuclear work and urges leaders to sign up for more intrusive inspections.

October, 2003: After meeting French, German and British foreign ministers, Tehran agrees to stop producing enriched uranium and formally decides to sign the Additional Protocol, a measure that extends the IAEA's ability to detect undeclared nuclear activities. No evidence is produced to confirm the end of enrichment.

November, 2003: Mr. ElBaradei says there is "no evidence" that Iran is pursuing nuclear weapons. The United States disagrees.

February, 2004: An IAEA report says Iran experimented with polonium-210, which can be used to trigger the chain reaction in a nuclear bomb. Iran did not explain the experiments. Iran again agrees to suspend enrichment, but again does not do so.

March, 2004: Iran is urged to reveal its entire nuclear program to the IAEA by June 1, 2004.

September, 2004: The IAEA orders Iran to stop preparations for large-scale uranium enrichment. U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell labels Iran a growing danger and calls for the UN Security Council to impose sanctions.

August, 2005: Hard-liner Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is installed as Iranian President as Tehran pledges an "irreversible" resumption of enrichment.

Jan. 10, 2006: Iran removes UN seals at the Natanz enrichment plant and resumes nuclear fuel research.

February, 2006: The IAEA votes to report Iran to the UN Security Council. Iran ends snap UN nuclear inspections the next day.

July 31, 2006: The UN Security Council demands that Iran suspend its nuclear activities by Aug. 31.

Aug. 31, 2006: The UN Security Council deadline for Iran to halt its work on nuclear fuel passes. IAEA says Tehran has failed to suspend the program.

Dec. 23, 2006: The 15-member UN Security Council unanimously adopts a binding resolution that imposes some sanctions and calls on Iran to suspend its uranium-enrichment activities and to comply with its IAEA obligations.

March 24, 2007: The Security Council unanimously approves a resolution broadening UN sanctions against Iran for its continuing failure to halt uranium enrichment. Iranian officials call the new measures "unnecessary and unjustified."

April 10, 2007: Iran's Minister of Foreign Affairs says Iran will not accept any suspension of its uranium-enrichment activities and urges world powers to accept the "new reality" of the Islamic republic's nuclear program.

May 23, 2007: The IAEA says in a new report, issued to coincide with the expiration of a Security Council deadline for Tehran, that Iran continues to defy UN Security Council demands to halt uranium enrichment and has expanded such work. The report adds that the UN nuclear agency's ability to monitor nuclear activities in Iran has declined due to lack of access to sites.

Oct. 24, 2007: The United States imposes new sanctions on Iran and accuses the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps of spreading weapons of mass destruction.

A plan to attack Iran swiftly and from above (http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20071122.wiran22/BNStory/International/?pageRequested=all&print=true)

Saudi crown prince meets Putin, foresees arms deal
Fri Nov 23, 8:09 AM

MOSCOW (AFP) - Saudi Arabia's Prince Sultan bin Abdul Aziz held talks here Friday with President Vladimir Putin expected to pave the way for the first purchase of Russian weapons by the kingdom, a close US ally.

Speaking as he met Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov ahead of his talks with Putin, the crown prince -- who doubles as Saudi defence minister -- gave a nod of approval to Kremlin policy.

"We are satisfied with Russian policy and we hope that it will continue," the prince said.

Putin visited Saudi Arabia last February and Saudi officials said afterwards that the desert kingdom was in negotiations with Moscow over the purchase of Russian weapons systems.

Lavrov described Sultan's meeting with Putin as the "main point" of his visit to Moscow, which he said would focus on implementing agreements penned when Putin went to Riyadh.

"Both sides are satisfied," Lavrov said, adding that Russia-Saudi ties had entered a phase of "intense development."

Officials in Moscow would not provide further information on the agenda for Sultan's talks with Putin.

But a Russian diplomat in Riyadh, speaking earlier this week, said he expected the Moscow talks to produce a "framework agreement for military cooperation" that would open the way for Saudi Arabia to buy Russian arms.

Speaking after Putin's visit to Riyadh, Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Saud al-Faisal said the desert kingdom was in talks with Russia over the possible purchase of Russian weapons.

"On the armament front, there have been discussions between the two countries.

"They are taking place in accordance with the kingdom's requirements in terms of armament and with what Russia can provide of the kingdom's needs for such equipment," he said.

Saud did not give details, but a diplomatic source in Riyadh had earlier said Putin's talks during his Saudi visit were expected to lead to a "verbal understanding" on the sale of about 150 Russian T-90 battle tanks to the kingdom.

The source said tests were carried out on the T-90 in Saudi Arabia last year to determine the tank's suitability for harsh desert conditions, and Russia is also looking to sell Mi-17 helicopters.

Saudi crown prince meets Putin, foresees arms deal (http://ca.news.yahoo.com/s/afp/071123/world/russia_saudi_defence_diplomacy)

Police beat protesters in Russia
Nearly 200 Putin critics detained
By Denis Pinchuk
Reuters / November 26, 2007

ST. PETERSBURG - Russian riot police beat opposition activists yesterday and detained nearly 200 people at protest rallies against President Vladimir Putin a week before the country's parliamentary election.

Riot police in St. Petersburg, Russia's second-largest city and Putin's hometown, detained Boris Nemtsov and Nikita Belykh, leaders of the Union of Right Forces Party who are running in the Dec. 2 election. They were later released.

The protests were held a day after police detained opposition leader and former world chess champion Garry Kasparov in Moscow, a move the United States condemned yesterday as part of "aggressive tactics" by authorities.

"We are troubled that Garry Kasparov and other leaders of the opposition have been arrested and detained," said White House National Security Council spokesman Gordon Johndroe.

Kasparov, leader of the Other Russia group, was among 60 detained in the 3,000-strong Moscow march, activists said.

In St. Petersburg, riot police were seen beating activists with batons and fists before forcing them into police buses.

Dozens more were detained outside the Winter Palace, the residence of the Tsars, and at another rally in the city center.

"They have forbidden us from discussing Putin," Nemtsov told the crowd. "But we have come here today to ask Mr. Putin and the authorities, why is there so much corruption in the country?"

He was promptly detained by five riot policemen as the crowd chanted "Russia without Putin."

Nemtsov told Reuters his detention was a breach of Russian law that forbids police from detaining candidates.

"Putin has total disregard for the country's constitution and laws," Nemtsov said. "He is afraid the people will find out the truth and so he hides behind the riot police."

About 500 activists made it to the marches but were vastly outnumbered by riot police. Most of those detained were later released, organizers said.

The city authorities had not given permission for the march and streets in the city center were blocked by riot police and snow-clearing trucks.

The "march of the discontented" brings together Putin's opponents into one movement which includes Other Russia, free-market parties such as Union of Right Forces and Yabloko, as well as anarchists and radical socialists.

Putin's opponents accuse the Kremlin chief of cracking down on the freedoms won after the 1991 fall of the Soviet Union, and of creating what they say is an unstable political system dependent on Putin alone.

"They have started a war with the people," said Tamara, a 72-year-old who took part in the march.

"Putin is very bad - look at the poverty in the country. Pensioners are forced to rummage in the dustbins."

Kremlin officials say the opposition marches are aimed at attracting attention in the West and that the activists are a mixed bag of marginal politicians with little public support.

Putin, ranked by opinion polls as the most popular politician in Russia, is credited by supporters for cementing political stability and presiding over the longest economic boom for a generation.

The former KGB spy has vowed to step down as president next year after his second consecutive four-year term in office.

But he has said he will use the pro-Kremlin United Russia party to preserve influence after he steps down.

He is running as the party's top candidate in the December election.

"We are ruled by the United Russia gang. They have taken away the elections," said Lyubov Chilipenko at the march.

Police beat protesters in Russia (http://www.boston.com/news/world/europe/articles/2007/11/26/police_beat_protesters_in_russia/)

Putin says US behind poll boycott

Russian President Vladimir Putin has accused the United States of pushing Western observers into boycotting Russian elections.

Mr Putin said the goal was to discredit the parliamentary election to be held on 2 December.

The Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) has categorically rejected the allegations.

Meanwhile, the European Commission has expressed concern at the treatment of the opposition in Russia.

'Nonsense'

The OSCE's election monitoring unit announced earlier this month that it would not attend Russia's election, saying Moscow had refused to provide visas to its staff.

The OSCE later said it would send a delegation of European MPs - rather than a full OSCE team - to monitor the vote.

Mr Putin said the boycott decision "was taken on the recommendation of the American state department".

"The aim is to discredit the elections, but they won't achieve their goal," he said.

"We will certainly take this into account with our bilateral ties with this state," he added, referring to the US.

But a spokeswoman for the OSCE in Warsaw, Urdur Gunnarsdottir, called Mr Putin's allegations "nonsense".

"The decision was not made in consultation with any government. It was made on operational, not political grounds," Ms Gunnarsdottir told the BBC.

"Our decision did not have the aim to influence the election."

The OSCE unites 56 member countries from Europe, Central Asia, the US and Canada.

The organisation will be represented by the OSCE Parliamentary Assembly, which, together with the Council of Europe Parliamentary Assembly, is sending about 100 MPs from member countries to Russia to observe the 2 December parliamentary poll.

EU worries

The head of the European Union's executive arm, European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso, has expressed worries about a weekend crackdown by Russian police on protests by opponents of President Vladimir Putin.

"I was very concerned to see reports of police harassment and arrests of politicians and peaceful demonstrators in Russia in the last two days," Mr Barroso said in a statement.

"The right to free speech and assembly are basic fundamental human rights and I very much regret that the authorities found it necessary to take such heavy-handed action."

Police broke up an opposition rally on Sunday, arresting 150 people in St Petersburg, including opposition leader Boris Nemtsov - who was later freed.

Another opposition figure, former chess champion Garry Kasparov, was arrested at a rally in Moscow on Saturday.

Putin says US behind poll boycott (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/7112904.stm)

First target for Iran: Qatar?

By OLIVIER GUITTA (Middle East Times)
Published: November 26, 2007

What would be the most logical target Iran would strike in case of a U.S. or Israeli attack on its nuclear sites?

Qatar.

In fact, Iranian Revolutionary guards have already threatened to attack Qatari oil and gas facilities (hence crippling the world economy by creating an oil and gas shock) by sea and air by using suicide boats and air missiles.

For Iran, it's a no-brainer: Qatar hosts the largest U.S. base in the Middle East (8,000 U.S. soldiers are stationed there) and is also viewed by some as being friendly with Israel.

What is Qatar doing about it?

First and foremost, Qatar has been heavily using the diplomatic weapon. Its strategy is to befriend everyone: from Israel to Hamas, from Syria to France.

Even though Qatar's deputy foreign minister Mohamed al-Ruhaimi firmly believes that "speaking to everyone allows us to have a dynamic and independent policy," it is a recipe for disaster. For instance, Qatar has not been terror-free: in fact, in March 2005, a suicide bomber (most likely linked or inspired by al-Qaida) killed one Briton and wounded 12 people in Doha in an attack at a theater frequented by Westerners.

Also, while Qatar is the only country with Iran, heavily investing in Syria, and thereby propping up the Assad regime, it does not seem to pay off. Quite the contrary. In June 2006 the Kuwaiti daily Al Seyassah reported that Qatar had foiled a destabilization plot against the regime and that Qatari authorities had arrested about 100 Syrian workers and five Syrian intelligence officers. This plot was reportedly conceived by Syrian President Bashar Assad's brother-in-law and chief of Syria's security services, Assef Shawkat, with the help of Hezbollah's mastermind, Imad Mugniyeh. They were to activate sleeping cells in the Gulf and target vital and strategic centers in Qatar. Syria wanted to take revenge on Qatar because of its vote at the United Nations for resolution 1680, which calls for a final drawing of the borders between Syria and Lebanon and the reestablishment of normal diplomatic relations between the two states.

On the diplomatic front, Qatar has been handling Iran carefully.

For proof, Qatar was the only country to reject a U.N. Security Council resolution against Tehran. Another reason for this policy is that according to a figure cited by the French daily, Le Figaro, 30 to 40 percent of Qatari citizens are of Iranian descent.

But appeasing Iran might not be enough to stave off a conflict with its powerful Shiite neighbor. Just a spark might ignite a fire: for example a major diplomatic incident broke out last year between the two countries when Qatar's emir called the Gulf "Arabian" and not "Persian."

Finally another potential source of conflict is the sharing of the enormous offshore gas reserve of the North Field (the largest natural gas reserve in the world with 25 trillion cubic meters) between the two nations, which is bound to ignite major tension, in particular as the Iranian economy worsens.

But Qatar has also a few fail-safe measures: one of them is obviously the U.S. military presence in the country. Another one is a military treaty with France obligating the latter to intervene militarily to defend the tiny Gulf state. France would be treaty bound to send troops to the region to retaliate against Iran. Recently, Qatari diplomats have been reminding France of its commitments.

Last but not least, since March 2006 Qatari refineries and vital oil installations have been protected by batteries of Patriot missiles.

An Iranian attack on Qatar might literally plunge the world into a new global war. Gulf and Western countries are taking this scenario seriously. That is why military activity in the Gulf has been increasing tremendously in the past few months. According to British sources, the stock of weapons, missiles, and combat planes in the six neighboring countries to Iran is now three times what it was at the onset of the Iraq war in 2003. The skies are getting darker once more in the Middle East.

First target for Iran: Qatar? (http://www.metimes.com/International/2007/11/26/first_target_for_iran_qatar/1356/)

Russian workers told where, how to vote

By LYNN BERRY, Associated Press Writer Tue Nov 27, 12:33 PM ET

MOSCOW - With the Kremlin determined to see a high turnout in Sunday's election, many Russians say they are being pressured to vote at work under the watchful eyes of their bosses or risk losing their jobs.

They say they also are being told to provide lists of relatives and friends who will vote for United Russia, the party of President Vladimir Putin.

United Russia is expected to win handily. But Putin has turned the parliamentary elections into a plebiscite on his rule, and the Kremlin appears to be pushing for nothing short of a landslide.

The constitution requires Putin to step down as president in May, but with the support of the majority of Russians he could claim a popular mandate to retain power.

"The plebiscite will become a mockery if only slightly more than half of the people vote and if only 60 percent of those vote for United Russia," as the latest opinion polls predict, political analyst Alexei Makarkin said.

In the push to get out the vote, the absentee ballot has become a popular new tool.

A teacher in St. Petersburg said the school administration told staff members to get absentee ballots from their neighborhood polling stations ahead of the election. They are to vote together Sunday at a polling station at the school.

"They didn't tell us necessarily to vote for United Russia, but you can read between the lines," said the teacher, who was willing to give only her first name, Yelena, out of fear of being fired.

Similar accounts have been given by teachers, doctors, factory workers and others around the country. Some have said they were warned they would lose their jobs if they did not comply.

Hundreds of people have called an election hot line to complain about the use of absentee ballots, the Central Elections Commission said in a summary of the complaints posted on its Web site.

Some complaints came from hospital patients, who said they had been threatened with early discharge if they did not produce absentee ballots.

The commission's head, Vladimir Churov, said Tuesday that every effort would be made to prevent voting violations through the use of absentee ballots, but election officials have not discouraged voters from using them.

Non-governmental organizations and opposition political parties also have reported receiving many complaints.

"It is unbelievable. The use of bureaucracy is on an unprecedented scale," said Marina Dashenkova of Golos, an election-monitoring group. "People are complaining that their bosses are forcing them to take absentee ballots and vote for whom they say."

The use of absentee ballots in this way is new, she said, and kills two birds with one stone for the Kremlin: By getting absentee ballots, people are registered as voting even if the votes are never cast, boosting turnout; and when they vote under the supervision of bosses they are likely to vote "correctly."

People also have complained of being required to round up a certain number of votes for United Russia. Yelena, the St. Petersburg teacher, said she was told to compile a list of five relatives or friends.

Vladimir Ryzhkov, a parliament member whose liberal party was barred from the election, said he has received reports from his home district in Siberia that government agencies have been told to make sure all employees and their family members vote.

"They want to be legitimate in the public eye and that's why they are pressuring everyone to vote," Ryzhkov said on Ekho Moskvy radio. "Even if people come and vote for parties that are opposed to the ruling party, their votes will still raise the legitimacy of the elections."

Much of the pressure appears to be on teachers, doctors and others on the government payroll. But some company owners also have shown an eagerness to get out the vote.

A 23-year-old manager at the Moscow grocery store chain Sedmoi Kontinent said her company was putting strong pressure on her and colleagues to get absentee ballots and vote at company headquarters.

"It's pure pressure. They are saying, 'We are not forcing you, we are asking you, but if not, you will show your disloyalty to your company,'" said the woman, Anna, who declined to disclose her last name out of fear of being fired.

The pressure to get out the vote starts with Russia's more than 80 governors, most of whom are United Russia members. The orders, whether explicit or just implied, are then passed to government agencies, companies, hospitals and schools.

"For them to ensure a decent turnout and the necessary percentage of the right vote is not a referendum for or against the president but a question of either signing their own prison sentence or being able to continue to live peacefully and remain governor," the independent newspaper Novaya Gazeta wrote.

Russian workers told where, how to vote (http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20071127/ap_on_re_eu/russia_election;_ylt=AqWWtiY0D_lmH6HIurE8dCIUewgF)

Iranian missile threatens Moscow
jpost.com staff and ap , THE JERUSALEM POST Nov. 27, 2007

Iran's new ballistic missile not only increases the threat against Israel, but against European cities as well, including Moscow, MK Ephraim Sneh (Labor) said on Tuesday.

"It is time the world opened its eyes," Army Radio quoted him as saying.

Iranian Defense Minister Gen. Mostafa Muhammad-Najjar announced on Tuesday that his country had developed a new ballistic missile with a range of 2,000 kilometers, capable of reaching Israel and US Army bases in the Middle East.

According to the country's IRNA news agency, Najjar said the missile was named the "Ashoura," meaning "the tenth day" in Farsi - a sacred reference among Shi'ite Muslims to the martyrdom of the third imam.

The Iranian defense minister said that "the production of the new missile was one of the Defense Ministry's greatest achievements."

Najjar did not specify how the Ashoura was different from the Shihab-3 missile, which is currently considered the country's longest-range missile.

The Ashoura was produced by factories affiliated with the ministry, according to IRNA. Najjar did not say whether Iran had test fired the missile or had plans to do so.

Analysts believe much of Iran's military production has benefited from assistance from Russia, China and other countries, but many of their weapons development claims have not been independently verified.

Iran launched an arms development program during its war with Iraq to compensate for a US weapons embargo. Since 1992, Iran has reportedly produced its own jets, torpedoes, radar-avoiding missiles, tanks and armored personnel carriers.

Recent weapons development has been motivated by Iran's standoff with the US over its controversial nuclear program.

The Shihab-3, which means "shooting star" in Farsi, has a range of at least 1,300 kilometers. In 2005, Iranian officials said they had improved the range of the Shihab-3 to 2,000 kilometers, equal to the new missile announced Tuesday.

Experts also believe Iran is developing the Shihab-4 missile, thought to have a range between 2,000 and 3,000 kilometers, that would enable it to hit much of Europe.

Iranian missile threatens Moscow (http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?cid=1195546736219&pagename=JPost%2FJPArticle%2FPrinter)
~~~~~~~~~
According to the Bible that missle will not fly to Moscow, but Israel.

Defense chiefs of Koreas begin talks

By HYUNG-JIN KIM, Associated Press Writer Tue Nov 27, 6:45 AM ET

SEOUL, South Korea - The defense chiefs of North and South Korea began a rare meeting Tuesday to discuss easing tension across their disputed sea border on a harmonious note, pledging to end the peninsula's division.

South Korean Defense Minister Kim Jang-soo arrived in Pyongyang Tuesday on a direct flight from Seoul for three days of talks with his North Korean counterpart Kim Il Chol — the first defense ministerial talks between the Koreas in seven years.

This week's talks are aimed at fleshing out agreements to foster peace and cooperation between the Koreas signed by South Korean President Roh Moo-hyun and North Korean leader Kim Jong Il last month, at only the second-ever summit between the countries.

The Koreas remain technically at war since the 1950-53 Korean War ended in an armistice, not a peace treaty.

The division of Korea "is a very important issue and is the matter that we have to resolve within our generation without further delay," the North's Kim said, according to pool reports. "I hope we will do something that goes down in history by advancing the unification."

The South's minister responded, "I think if we map out a stepping stone, the era that we want to have will come at an early date."

Earlier this month, the prime ministers of the two Koreas met and agreed to launch a cross-border train service and construction projects in the impoverished North, along with other reconciliation projects.

However, the defense talks were seen as crucial because the North's military has in the past put the brakes on burgeoning rapprochement because of security concerns.

The North's 1.1 million-strong army is the backbone of leader Kim's authoritarian rule of 23 million people. Soldiers get first pick of the country's scarce resources and are rewarded generously for their service as the vanguard against the outside world.

A plan to establish a joint fishing area in the West Sea and designate it as a "peace and cooperation zone" was expected to be a key issue at the defense talks.

The poorly marked western sea border was the scene of bloody naval skirmishes between the two Koreas in 1999 and 2002, and the North has long insisted the frontier be redrawn further south. The waters around the border are rich fishing grounds and boats from the two Koreas routinely jostle for position during the May-June crab-catching season.

Another issue that could be raised at the talks is Seoul's concern about more than 500 South Korean prisoners of war believed still alive in the North. The North insists there are no prisoners or abductees in the country, insisting any South Koreans there went voluntarily.

The defense talks come amid progress in international efforts to rid North Korea of its nuclear weapons program, with Pyongyang beginning to disable facilities in its main nuclear complex this month in return for energy aid and other benefits.

A team of U.S. experts has been in North Korea since early this month to monitor the disablement process. Officials from South Korea, China, Japan and Russia will visit the North Korean nuclear complex this week to check on progress, South Korean Foreign Ministry spokesman Cho Hee-yong said Monday.

The two Koreas held their first defense ministers' talks on the South Korean island of Jeju in September 2000, three months after the first-ever summit between the two countries.

Defense chiefs of Koreas begin talks (http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20071127/ap_on_re_as/koreas_military_talks;_ylt=AuPtuWDesUMHfdET5ibtlyhw24cA)

PM, Bush hold private meeting on Iran
jerusalem post correspondent
THE JERUSALEM POST
Nov. 28, 2007

Having depicted the wide Arab participation in Tuesday's Annapolis summit as a sort of victory for Middle East moderation over Iranian opposition, Prime Minister Ehud Olmert held his second private White House meeting of the week with President George Bush on Wednesday to try to translate the summit's momentum into a more effective effort to thwart Teheran's nuclear drive.

At a briefing prior to the Annapolis gathering, Olmert noted to The Jerusalem Post that the Iranians had made clear that they wanted their presumed allies to stay away and were "furious" about the high Arab turnout. Some 20 Arab and Muslim countries sent foreign ministers or other senior ministers to the gathering - including the Saudis and, most gallingly for Teheran, Syria, which dispatched its deputy foreign minister, Faysal Mekdad.

The Iranians wanted the Arab world to stay away, Olmert said, "and now see even the Syrians coming."

But Syria has stressed that it only came to Annapolis to ensure that its demand for the Golan Heights remained prominent on the Middle Eastern negotiating agenda. Damascus was testing "Washington's seriousness about working for peace this time. Its previous intentions have deluded us," according to the Syrian daily Teshreen.

And Saudi Arabian Foreign Minister Saud al-Faisal told reporters on Monday that his country's presence had no connection to any American hope of galvanizing a post-Annapolis wider consensus against Iran's nuclear drive.

"We have to worry about Israel first," Faisal said, and deal first with the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. This was a separate priority, he said, from the question of "whether Iran is developing weapons of mass destruction or interfering in Iraq."

Olmert had been saying consistently up until the last few months that he was confident Bush would find the means to stop Iran before leaving office. In an interview with the Post in September 2006, for instance, asked whether he felt that Bush would, one way or another, stop Iran from going nuclear, Olmert replied succinctly, "I believe so."

He elaborated that Bush "has the courage. There is no one in the world today who has greater courage and determination, and a sense of mission about these issues."

At this week's briefing, however, Olmert was more circumspect, saying only that Bush was "doing a lot on the Iranian issue" and that he and the president had been discussing it "for a long time."

Iran used both private diplomacy and public rhetoric to try to dissuade Arab participation in Annapolis - both because of its opposition to any reconciliation with Israel, and out of concern that changing alliances might leave it more isolated and more vulnerable to pressure over its nuclear drive.

And having failed to deter the Arab delegations, it publicly expressed its dismay.

The official Iranian media quoted President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad as having flatly told Saudi King Abdullah by phone over the weekend: "I wish the name of Saudi Arabia was not among those attending the Annapolis conference. Arab countries should be watchful in the face of the plots and deception of the Zionist enemy."

And in a similar phone conversation with Syrian President Bashar Assad, he was reported as saying that "only the true representatives of the Palestinian people can take decisions" on their future.

He was more bitter still in a speech to a gathering of Iran's Basij religious militia, declaring that "attending this conference shows a lack of political intelligence... The names of those who give concessions to the Zionist occupiers by attending will not be remembered for goodness."

Ahmadinejad's rhetoric was also echoed by Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who predicted that Annapolis was "doomed to failure."

He told militia volunteers that "they hope the conference will help the usurping Zionist regime and save the honor of the Black House."

The Iranian-backed Hamas, presumably considered by Teheran to be among the "true representatives of the Palestinian people," also denounced the Annapolis gathering, as did the Iranian-backed Hizbullah in Lebanon.

And there were tellingly-timed new warnings from Hamas and from Iran itself about their development of new missile capabilities.

Iranian Defense Minister Mostafa Muhammad-Najjar announced "a victory for the Defense Ministry" on Tuesday in its development of a 2,000-kilometer-range missile, the "Ashura," which would bring European targets into range.

And Hamas spokesman Ahmad Yousef declared on Sunday that Hamas could make deadlier Kassam rockets to fire into Israel. In Damascus, meanwhile, Hamas leader Moussa Abu Marzouk warned of escalated violence after Annapolis "in all its forms and means."

Along with the Arab states, vital potential partners of the US and Israel in the bid to thwart Iran were notably present at Annapolis, with France, Britain, Germany, Italy, China and Russia all represented at the level of foreign minister. France and the UK are publicly committed to stepped-up sanctions aimed at persuading Teheran to change course.

Much of the international community is awaiting next month's United Nations Security Council discussion of new reports into Iran's nuclear program, including an assessment by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) of its scope and of the degree of Iranian compliance with inspection requirements.

The two key holdouts against intensified sanctions, Russia and China, have said they would reassess their positions in light of the imminent new reports. And there has been some speculation here that the revived talk of Russia hosting post-Annapolis talks on multilateral Middle East peace tracks - an idea the Russians say the US is now supporting in principle - may be part of an effort to give Moscow a greater peacemaking role and deepen its partnership with other international players in seeking to deter Iran.

Olmert has stated in the past that "Israel can't accept the possibility of Iranians having nuclear weapons, and we will act together with the international forces, starting with America, in order to prevent it."

Israel's strong preference is still for sanctions to deter Iran, rather than any resort, by any player, to immensely complex military action with potentially significant repercussions.

Plainly, though, time is limited, as Iran maintains its nuclear program in defiance of international pressure, and as the Bush administration heads into its final year. After Wednesday, Bush and Olmert may not have too many more opportunities to forge a definite position on thwarting Iran one way or another.

PM, Bush hold private meeting on Iran (http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?cid=1195546745789&pagename=JPost%2FJPArticle%2FPrinter)

Iran's Ahmadinejad: Israel will not last

9 hours ago

TEHRAN (AFP) — Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad on Wednesday predicted that Israel would not survive, as he lashed out at the US-hosted conference seeking to relaunch the Middle East peace process.

"It is impossible that the Zionist regime can last," state media quoted Ahmadinejad as saying in a cabinet meeting.

"Deterioration is in the nature of this regime as it has been built on aggression, lying, crime and wrongdoing," he added.

He said the meeting which united Israeli and Palestinian leaders in Annapolis, Maryland had "failed already and was stillborn. It lacked the cornerstones of effective political work."

The Islamic republic -- which has made non-recognition of Israel a cornerstone of its ideology -- was left isolated after its chief regional ally Syria and Saudi Arabia attended Tuesday's meeting.

"We regret that some people fell victim to the cursed Zionist regime and they are mistaken if they thought this meeting was an achievement for them or helps reinforce the Zionists," added the president.

Ahmadinejad has repeatedly courted controversy by predicting Israel is doomed to disappear, most notoriously calling in 2005 for the Jewish state to be "wiped off the map".

In an unusual diplomatic move, Ahmadinejad on Sunday chided Saudi King Abdullah in a telephone conversation for taking part in the Middle East peace meeting.

Despite sharing no borders, Israel and Iran are the region's two bitterest foes.

The tensions have intensified further over the Iranian nuclear programme, which Israel -- the region's sole if undeclared nuclear power -- charges is aimed at making an atomic bomb. Iran insists its atomic drive is peaceful.

Israel was an ally of the imperial regime of shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, developing close military and economic ties with Iran until the shah's overthrow in the Islamic revolution of 1979.

Iran's Ahmadinejad: Israel will not last (http://afp.google.com/article/ALeqM5g0-AQu-IiEP5RkC57afK-F3X_EGQ)

Putin says will prevent foreign meddling

By Oleg Shchedrov Wed Nov 28, 11:27 AM ET

MOSCOW (Reuters) - President Vladimir Putin, who steps down next year, said on Wednesday he would not allow foreign powers to upset Russia's stability in the wake of two crucial polls, which will decide the country's future.

Anti-Western rhetoric has been a visible part of Putin's campaign ahead of December 2 parliamentary polls, in which he leads the United Russia party. Analysts expect a similar pattern in March 2 presidential polls to elect Putin's successor.

"We have done everything to safeguard Russia from internal disturbances and to put it firmly on the track of evolutionary development," Putin told diplomats and senior officials in a speech in the Kremlin.

"And I am forced to repeat myself -- we will not allow this process to be changed from outside," he said.

Allies credit Putin for presiding over an economic boom and for consolidating Russia. Critics say this has been done at the expense of democracy.

Putin is not allowed by Russia's constitution to run for a third term, but has said he wanted to maintain political influence after his departure to ensure his legacy survives.

His opponents blame the Kremlin for intimidating opposition figures ahead of the polls so United Russia can dominate the next parliament and a hand-picked ally takes over the Kremlin.

Putin rejected these suggestions.

"Our political course is clear and invariable," he said. "We follow the path of democratic development."

"We know the value of true democracy and want to conduct elections that are honest, as transparent as possible and open," said Putin. "We are sure this is the way these elections will be."

RHETORIC

Analysts say Putin, Russia's most popular politician, faces almost no risk in the transition of power.

But his prominent role in the polls and zero-tolerance of opponents will overshadow their outcome in foreign eyes.

Putin, a former KGB officer, has characterized Western fears as an attempt to impose alien standards and weaken Russia.

Last week, Putin accused his liberal opponents of being instruments of Western interference. Police have dispersed opposition rallies in Moscow and St Petersburg and arrested dozens of activists.

On Monday, Putin told the West not to poke their "snotty noses" in Russia. He blamed Washington for encouraging the election monitoring arm of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe not to send observers to the December 2 polls.

The OSCE's Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights (ODIHR) has said its decision was a reaction to obstructions by the Russian authorities.

Putin's harsh election rhetoric reflected growing foreign policy rifts between the West and Russia, which seeks to develop an assertive, independent role in international relations.

In a keynote speech earlier this year, Putin accused the United States of seeking to dictate its will to the world.

Russia opposes U.S. plans to deploy elements of its missile defence system in Europe, tackle Iran's nuclear program and accept independence for Serbia's breakaway province of Kosovo.

On Wednesday, Putin made clear this course will not change.

"A moment of truth is coming in global politics. We need to give up the policy of dictatorship and deterrent," he said.

"We will move nowhere until we agree on new, clear and mutually acceptable rules for cooperation in international affairs."

Putin says will prevent foreign meddling (http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20071128/ts_nm/russia_vote_putin_dc)

Iran May Seek to Lure Europe with Gas

Iran wants to use its massive gas reserves to wield influence over Europe. But if offering to supply Europe with gas via a pipeline through Turkey doesn't work, then the Revolutionary Guards may resort to plan B.

Iran is planning to leverage its massive gas reserves to increase its influence in Western Europe -- by fair means or foul. If selling gas to Europe doesn't work, then Iran's Revolutionary Guards may resort to violence in the worst-case scenario.

According to intelligence sources in the Middle East, Iranian leaders are considering making an unusual offer to supply Europe with large quantities of natural gas. The gas would be supplied via the planned Nabucco pipeline, which will run from Azerbaijan to Austria via Turkey.

The offer would be attractive to European leaders as it would allow Europe to reduce its dependence on Russian natural gas. Germany currently gets about a third of its natural gas requirements from Russia, and demand is expected to increase in the coming years. There are major concerns in Europe about the continent relying too heavily on Russia for its natural gas, particularly after a series of recent disputes in which Russia cut off energy supplies to Ukraine and Belarus.

According to minutes of a meeting obtained by SPIEGEL, a representative of Iran's Revolutionary Guard presented the proposal to Iran's National Security Council. The order to prepare the plan apparently came directly from Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, according to the intelligence sources.

Construction work on the Nabucco pipeline is expected to begin in 2009 and to be finished by 2011. The pipeline, which is being built by a consortium headed by the Austrian company OMV, will have a total length of 3,300 kilometers and cost around €5 billion. However the pipeline is controversial within the European Union and Moscow has already made its opposition to the project clear.

The project only makes economic sense if the pipeline is used to full capacity -- and Azerbaijan's natural gas reserves are not sufficient to guarantee that. Hence Iran, which has the world's second largest natural gas reserves after Russia, is the obvious natural partner for the project.

Tehran has yet to make an official offer, however. And any overture could cause political friction between the US and Europe: The US government has demanded that Berlin and Paris take clear diplomatic and economic action against Tehran over its suspected nuclear weapons program. German Chancellor Angela Merkel recently assured US President George W. Bush that Germany would apply strong economic pressure on Tehran (more...). Increased sanctions could make Iran's economy vulnerable.

However if a carrot doesn't work, then Iran might resort to a stick. Other alternatives were apparently also discussed at the meeting in Tehran. Iran's elite Quds force, a branch of the Revolutionary Guards, are reported to be charged with looking into possible ways to disrupt Berlin's energy partnership with Russia -- for example through terrorist actions against the planned Baltic Sea pipeline (more...) between Russia and Germany.

Iran May Seek to Lure Europe with Gas (http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/0,1518,519697,00.html)

Poland Now In Range Of Iran's Missiles?

Warsaw, Poland - 29 November, 2007 As Poland's new Prime Minister is rethinking his country's participation in the US proposed missile defense shield, Iran has announced development of the "Ashoura" missile that, if the announcement is true, puts the Polish Capital City of Warsaw within range of a missile strike from Iran.

Not only is Warsaw is in range. The missile can also reach Moscow.

Development of a missile has been rumored for some time. And Iran has now confirmed the rumor.

"Iranian Defense Minister Gen. Mostafa Muhammad-Najjar announced on Tuesday that his country had developed a new ballistic missile with a range of 2,000 kilometers, capable of reaching Israel and US Army bases in the Middle East." See Iranian missile threatens Moscow

In the past many of Iran's weapons development claims have not been independently verified and the current claim falls into that class. Iran Says It's Produced New Missile.

In June, 2007, Doug Richardson, the editor of the London-based defense journal "Jane's Missiles And Rockets," commented on the state of Iran missile systems as it was known to exist at that time.

Quote

In order to get to Moscow you would have to get a missile of 2,000 kilometers range. We hear rumors of such developments from Iran but nothing very firm. We honestly don't have any real hard information on Iran's future missile plans, we've heard talk of something allegedly called the Shahab-3B; the story is rather vague. The reports talked about 2,000-2,500-kilometer range. There've been reports [about] Shahab-4 [but] the Iranians have said there is no such thing as Shahab-4. We have seen some pronouncement that there is a Shahab-4 but it's not a missile, it's going to be a satellite-launch vehicle. So there's just no hard information. We know they are doing a lot of rocket development work, 2,500 would not quite get you to Rome, it would probably get you to Zagreb, Budapest, you'd get most of Slovakia, it would get you a bit into the Czech Republic [and] up to Warsaw, Minsk, and not quite St. Petersburg. See Defense Expert Discusses Iran's Missile Capabilities

The new Ashoura missile is thought to have a range of 2000 to 2500 kilometers.

As Iran develops its missiles and nuclear capabilities of one sort or another, Europe has not done much to develop a defense.

The state of the placement of the missile shield in Poland is far from settled. The Tusk Government is going to be talking with the Russians and West Europeans before it makes a decision. And it wants to negotiate with the US for more benefits for allowing the base to be on Polish soil.

The Democrats in the US Government have cut funding for the proposed location in Poland. So even if Poland decides to go forward, there may not be money for either the base or more benefits.

Tusk wants to discuss the system with the Europeans because he sees NATO as very important. But NATO is little more than an augmented US force whose assets in Europe the interceptors are intended to defend. And NATO has already noted the importance of the missile shield but has taken the position that if the United States wants to pay for it, why should the Europeans? Poland's Choice On Missile Shield Is A Decision On Polish Defense

As Poland and Europe dither, Iran moves forward.

Russia, whose Government has been strenuously opposing the defense shield location in Poland is 2469 kilometers from Tehran. Now it is also within range of a missile attack by Iran.

If Iran has an effective delivery system, it is a matter of adding an appropriate payload that it might be able to buy. And it might not have to look far to get what it wants. The Israeli strike on the supposed nuclear weapons facility in Syria may have cut off one option. The Israeli "Nuclear Reactor Strike" and Syrian Weapons of Mass Destruction But with billions of dollars in oil money, Iran can well afford to get attention elsewhere.

Experts also believe Iran is developing the Shahab-4 missile, thought to have a range between 1,200 and 1,900 miles, that would enable it to hit much of Europe. And some sources claim that the Russians are helping a solid-fuel design team at the ubgone19 Bagheri Industrial Group in Teheran develop a 2,800-mile (4,505.2 kilometers) missile, capable of reaching London and Paris, and a 6,300-mile [10,000 km] range missile that could strike cities in the eastern United States. These reports are poorly documented

To Europe, Iran is like a thief with an empty gun. If the gun is pointed at you, do you assume it is loaded or not? And if the thief is as unstable as Iran's President seems to be, should you be more concerned? Should you even take him serious? And who should you depend on to protect you from him?

Russia and Poland now have to decide who and what is the bigger danger.

Russia will lose face and its domination of Poland with a US base on Polish soil. But it thinks that the US could eventually use the base against Russia.

If Poland agrees to the base it will have US backing against Russian domination and rogue missiles. But it will not make Russia happy.

The Iranian missiles may or may not be a clear and present danger. And Poland has to look after its own interests. The Polish Government has a tough decision to make in sorting out which are most important.

Iran has made its decision. It says that developing Iran's new missile is an important achievement.

Poland Now In Range Of Iran's Missiles (http://www.masterpage.com.pl/outlook/200711/iranmissile.html)

Ukraine's Orange Revolution parties reach coalition deal

by Anya Tsukanova Thu Nov 29, 12:45 PM ET

KIEV (AFP) - The two parties that led Ukraine's Orange Revolution on Thursday reached a coalition deal, setting the stage for pro-Western Yulia Tymoshenko to return as prime minister.

The party of President Viktor Yushchenko and the Yulia Tymoshenko Bloc signed an agreement on forming the new government, interim speaker Roman Zvarych told parliament.

Applause broke out in the parliament chamber and some deputies presented Tymoshenko with a large bouquet of blue and yellow flowers representing Ukraine's national colours.

"I believe that we will succeed in forming an effective government and provide hope for systematic and deep reforms in the country," said Tymoshenko.

With her characteristic blond braids, Tymoshenko was Yushchenko's ally in the Orange Revolution, when hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians took to the streets in November 2004 for 17 days to protest rigged elections that handed victory to a pro-Moscow candidate.

But relations between them broke down just months after Yushchenko come to power in 2005, and critics took her to task as prime minister for a series of populist economic measures.

Tymoshenko became Ukraine's first female prime minister in February 2005 but was sacked in September amid bitter rivalry with Yushchenko.

A total of 227 deputies in the 450-seat Rada, or parliament, signed the coalition deal, paving the way for the appointment of a prime minister at a parliament session set for Tuesday.

But a key member of Yushchenko's party, Ivan Plyushch, refused to endorse the accord, underscoring the fragility of the deal that was backed by a slim majority in parliament.

Communist official Petro Tsybenko commented that the coalition endorsed by only 227 deputies "will not be viable. Every vote will be difficult."

The appointment of 47-year-old Tymoshenko as prime minister provides a first test for the coalition, with lawmakers close to Yushchenko reportedly reluctant to endorse her candidacy.

Ukrainian media have reported that Yushchenko's allies fear that Tymoshenko's return as prime minister could bolster her already strong popularity and turn her into a potential rival for the presidency.

Some pro-Yushchenko lawmakers have said that Tymoshenko should pledge not to stand in the 2010 presidential vote as a condition for her nomination as prime minister.

"I do not exclude the fact that we could support a single candidate in the presidential campaign," said Olexandr Turchinov, an aide to Tymoshenko, suggesting that they would rally behind Yushchenko.

Since Yushchenko came to power in 2005, three governments have been in office, as the country's political elites are torn by infighting.

Viktor Yanukovych, a pro-Russian politician who was Yushchenko's rival in the Orange Revolution standoff, resigned as prime minister on Friday after 15 months in office.

The move followed elections in September that were called to resolve months of wrangling between Yushchenko, who supports Ukraine's full integration with the West, including the NATO military alliance, and Yanukovych.

Ukraine's Orange Revolution parties reach coalition deal (http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20071129/wl_afp/ukrainepolitics_071129174502;_ylt=AoYxn_nIBSPjawcczAGlU_WQOrgF)

Fraud, intimidation and bribery as Putin prepares for victory

State workers forced to vote in effort to rig result for president

Luke Harding and Tom Parfitt in Moscow
Friday November 30, 2007

The Kremlin is planning to rig the results of Russia's parliamentary elections on Sunday by forcing millions of public sector workers across the country to vote, the Guardian has learned.

Local administration officials have called in thousands of staff on their day off in an attempt to engineer a massive and inflated victory for President Vladimir Putin and his United Russia party. Voters are being pressured to vote for United Russia or risk losing their jobs, their accommodation or bonuses, the Guardian has been told in numerous interviews with byudzhetniki (public sector workers), students and ordinary citizens.

Article continues
Doctors, teachers, university deans, students and even workers at psychiatric clinics have been warned they have to vote. Failure to do so will entail serious consequences, they have been told.

Analysts say the pressure is designed to ensure a resounding win for the United Russia party and for Putin, who heads its party list. The victory would give him a public mandate to maintain ultimate power in the country as "National Leader" despite being unable to stand for a third term as president in March.

In a televised speech yesterday Putin implored the nation to turn out and vote for United Russia, saying: "I count on your support." The president enjoys genuine popular backing but a spokeswoman for Golos, an independent organisation monitoring the elections, said "big pressure on voters across the country" was being used to balloon the result for United Russia.

"We are seeing a new phenomenon where voters are forced to get absentee ballots under threat of being sacked or being denied bonuses," she said. "People are then instructed to vote at their workplace where everything is tightly controlled." The spokesman said the pressure applied to private businesses as well as state-run enterprises.

Students have been told they risk the prospect of failing exams or being removed from courses if they do not vote for United Russia. Alexander, a journalism student at Oryol State University, said: "It's been made very clear that students who don't get absentee ballots and vote the right way could lose their place in the dormitory."

Anna, 31, a schoolteacher in Ulan Ude, said: "We were called to the staff room in my school about a month ago and asked to sign a formal declaration promising that we would vote for United Russia. I told them that I wanted to vote for another party, but they told me to sign it in such a manner that there was no way to refuse. They hinted I could lose my job."

A librarian in Buryatia region said she had been promised a premium on her salary if she voted for United Russia.

The Kremlin insists Sunday's elections will be free and fair, despite inviting only 400 international observers to monitor the poll, which is taking place in 95,784 polling stations across the world's biggest country. This month the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe's office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights (ODIHR) cancelled its mission to Russia after Moscow refused to give its experts visas.

Asked whether the Kremlin was planning to manipulate Sunday's election Vladimir Churov, the head of Russia's central election commission, told the Guardian: "They will be the most free, most transparent, and most suitable elections for citizens."

However, while state television has made no mention of electoral violations, websites and independent newspapers outside state control are seething with reports of attempts to pressure voters to turn out for United Russia.

Bloggers on Russia's most popular social networking site, Livejournal, have posted numerous accounts of intimidation. One in Murmansk wrote that he was told that if he didn't vote for United Russia "the management would get it in the neck".

Another in Yekaterinburg wrote: "Today my wife came home in shock. As the boss of a state company she has been told that all her workers living in different parts of town must take absentee ballots and go to vote in Kirovsky district. She has to go and sit all day on December 2 and call round everyone in her collective. Then she has to provide a list of who has voted." She then received a directive warning her to add anybody who didn't vote for United Russia to a list, and later those people would be "called to the office" of the local administration.

The Kremlin has cast Sunday's State Duma vote as a referendum on Putin. Although Putin is obliged to step down as president next May, a landslide victory may be used to legitimise his return to power, possibly as early as the summer.

The president's personal popularity remains high. But support for United Russia is less solid. Independent experts say the party's true ratings are around 35% - well below the 55% figure suggested by state-controlled opinion polls.

In a leak to Russian media this week, one senior election official said that regional governors had been told to deliver at least 65% of the vote for Putin's party, an "unrealistically high" total that could be achieved only through electoral fraud and by compelling people to vote.

"The elections are going to be falsified," said Mikhail Delyagin, an economist and the director of Moscow's Institute on Globalisation Problems. "The elections that took place in the Soviet Union were less falsified than this one."

He added: "All those who depend on state salaries have been forced to go and vote. This means workers on all levels of state power working for local government, all the military, and those who are in prison or psychiatric hospitals. Of course people have the possibility to lie. But there is enormous psychological pressure."

Regional election workers would also stuff ballot boxes - as they had done on previous occasions - boosting United Russia's vote by about 20%, he estimated. These results could be refined still further by using the election commission's central computer. "You can falsify as much as you want. But the result must be truthful-looking," he said.

Putin's decision to associate himself with United Russia's election campaign - and to stand as a candidate at the top of the party's federal list - has contributed to the scale of the fraud, analysts said.

"The scale of pressure is due to nervousness within the Kremlin administration since it announced that this is no longer a parliamentary election but a referendum on Putin," Fyodor Lukyanov, editor-in-chief of the journal Russia in Global Affairs, said. Lukyanov said he believed the amount of fraud on polling day would be small. "This is normal in contemporary advanced authoritarian systems. They are smart enough to organise the vote in quite a proper and correct way," he said.

cont'd next post

Coercing people in advance was a more effective tactic, he added. "The consequences [of not voting for Putin] are not perhaps as bad as they promise. But there is psychological pressure, of course. I had thought Russian authoritarianism was much softer. We will see."

The squeeze on public sector workers follows numerous rule changes by the Kremlin to Russia's electoral system. Under a new law, all parties need 7% of the vote to enter parliament - up from 5% last time. Additionally, several democratic opposition parties have been banned from taking part. The Kremlin has also abolished constituency voting - in effect wiping out the last critics from the current Duma. It has also scrapped minimum turnout.

Critics allege that United Russia has received disproportionate media coverage on state-controlled TV while opposition figures have been blacklisted. Putin's speech at a US-style election rally in Moscow last week, in which he denounced Russia's opposition as "jackals", got 16 minutes on the main evening news.

"These elections are a farce," said Vladimir Ryzhkov, an independent MP banned from standing. The Kremlin liquidated his Republican party earlier this year, claiming it didn't have enough voters. "I call it a Kremlin biathlon. In a normal biathlon the sportsmen shoot at targets, but in the Kremlin biathlon, not only do the sportsmen shoot at their targets, but the judges shoot at the sportsmen," Ryzhkov said. "Half of Russia's politicians can't run. It's selection before election."

Yesterday the central election commission dismissed suggestions that public sector workers had been told they had to vote. Churov told the Guardian he regarded the allegation as a "provocation" put about by the opposition. "This is just propaganda," he said.

He also claimed it was "not possible" to manipulate results stored in the commission's central computer, nicknamed Elections. Voters could find out the result at their individual polling station by dialling 5503 on their mobile phones, he said.

It wasn't Russia's fault that the OSCE had cancelled its mission, he added. "I was waiting for the head of the ODIHR in Moscow. But instead he flew off to Washington," Churov complained.

Kremlin aides openly acknowledge that their aim is to push smaller parties out of parliament. "We have moved towards the purification of the legislature," said Putin's deputy spokesman, Dmitry Peskov.

Ivan, power station worker, Ufa
Every worker is being forced to take an absentee ballot and instructed to vote at one particular polling station with the rest of the workforce, all together for United Russia. It will be very easy for them to count who has turned up, who hasn't, and how they've voted. On every shift, in every department we are constantly being told that if you don't comply you'll get the sack.

Yelena, nurse, Ulan Ude
Every week we have a work briefing in our poliklinik [doctor's surgery]. They are always pressing on us to vote for United Russia. The head doctor ... says that if we don't vote for United Russia we won't get our Putin pribavki [federal funds added to nurses' salaries].

Dasha, 19, student, Moscow
I was hanging out with my friends in Novogireyevo [in Moscow] near the metro. There were six of us. We were approached by a car. A young man came out. He started talking to us about the elections and said if we wanted to vote for United Russia we could get 500 roubles. I didn't agree but four of my group did. They filled in some kind of form - name, surname and passport data. They were given the numbers of polling stations where they should go and vote and get the cash.

Anastasiya, 40, librarian, Buryatia
There was a meeting in the village where all doctors, teachers, nurses were gathered by the culture department of the local government ... The doors were closed and we were like hostages. We were told write a declaration saying "I, name and surname, pledge to vote for United Russia and these are my passport details ..." We were told that if United Russia got a high percentage in the village we would get a bonus on our salaries.

Natalia, 29, Novosibirsk
Some activists from United Russia came to my home. They asked if I was going to vote for their party. I said no because I don't agree with its ideology. And they replied, Well, look, there's blacklist of people who aren't voting for United Russia. We know where you live and we are going to add you to that list.

Masha, student, Vladimir
We were told - you study in a state university, so you should vote for the state party. I don't know what to do. I wanted to vote for another party. But it was so difficult to get into university, I don't want to be thrown out.

* Some names have been changed

Fraud, intimidation and bribery as Putin prepares for victory (http://www.guardian.co.uk/russia/article/0,,2219492,00.html)

U.S. says has proof of N.Korea uranium program

Sat Dec 1, 3:23 AM ET

SEOUL (Reuters) - The United States has evidence North Korea purchased equipment to enrich uranium, a key step in producing nuclear weapons, a U.S. envoy was quoted as saying on Saturday.
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The United States in 2002 first accused the North of running a covert nuclear program by enriching uranium, a charge that triggered the demise of a 1994 deal to disarm the North's nuclear arms program.

Despite North Korea's denial of the existence of a uranium enrichment program, there is "credible evidence" of its purchase of equipment and materials that could be used for just that, U.S. nuclear envoy Christopher Hill was quoted as saying by Yonhap news agency.

A U.S. embassy official in Seoul could not immediately confirm Hill's comments, which he said were made at a privately arranged function at a university.

Hill said he was confident the North would fully clear up the suspicion by the end of the year, including questions about how the centrifuges and aluminum tubes it had bought were used.

North Korea has an abundant supply of natural uranium but not all the equipment or even a reliable source of electricity to run a large-scale enrichment program, experts have said.

North Korea has agreed with regional powers to disable its plutonium-based nuclear facilities by the end of the year in exchange for aid and an end to its international ostracism.

It has also agreed to present an inventory of all its nuclear activities. Hill has previously said the North's declarations must come with no surprises or omissions.

Hill denied knowledge of North Korea's sale of uranium enrichment equipment to Syria, as reported by the Washington Times on Friday.

Hill is scheduled to make his second trip to the North this year on Monday, which would include his first visit to the North's Yongbyon nuclear complex.

U.S. says has proof of N.Korea uranium program (http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20071201/ts_nm/korea_north_nuclear_dc)

Iran's Revolutionary Guards patrol Persian Gulf, U.S. says
Thu. 29 Nov 2007

WASHINGTON (CNN) -- Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps has taken command of Iranian naval operations in the Persian Gulf, the U.S. military has revealed.

That means U.S. naval forces are operating in the same waters as an organization the United States considers a major supporter of terrorist activity.

Adm. Michael Mullen, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, made the disclosure Wednesday at the Army War College in Carlisle, Pennsylvania, where he was answering questions from military students.

Afterward, in a written statement, the U.S. Navy Fifth Fleet in Bahrain said, "Based on activities observed in the Arabian Gulf over the past several months, it appears the Iranian navy has shifted its patrol areas to the Strait of Hormuz and Gulf of Oman -- leaving the IRGC navy to provide the primary Iranian naval presence in the Arabian Gulf."

The move is of concern to the U.S. Navy, which has long viewed the IRGC's forces as more antagonistic than Iran's regular navy.

Mullen said Iran made a "strategic decision" in recent months to "essentially give the entire Gulf to the IRGC over the next four or five years."

"That's a big deal, because I think part of the leading-edge challenge with Iran is the IRGC specifically," Mullen said.

For the past several months, IRGC forces have occupied a sunken barge and crane near Iraqi oil terminals at the northern end of the Persian Gulf. The IRGC is using the site as an observation post for the area, which is patrolled regularly by U.S. and coalition naval forces.

Mullen's comments reflect the chairman's concern about not just Iran's nuclear program, but also its arms shipments to Iraq and Afghanistan and statements against Israel, a senior U.S. Navy official said.

The United States has long said it believes the IRGC is behind those arms shipments, but it has stopped short of saying the central government of Iran is responsible for those actions.

IRGC forces earlier this year seized a group of British sailors at the northern end of the Gulf and held them for several days. The British had been conducting a boarding of a merchant vessel, as part of an approved coalition operation in the Gulf.

Since that incident, security measures for boarding parties have been stepped up, a senior U.S. Navy official said. New procedures during all boardings include flying an armed helicopter overhead and having an armed vessel close by.

A U.S. Navy official in the region said that operations in proximity to Iran's regular navy have been "formal and correct," but added that IRGC forces "rarely respond" to U.S. Navy attempts at ship-to-ship communications with them.

Several U.S. Navy officials said the move is militarily significant for the United States because of the IRGC's terrorist affiliation. U.S. Navy ships would not want IRGC vessels sailing too close to them because of that concern, they said.

One official said Iran's regular naval forces evoke less concern because they "represent a nation state."

The IRGC was formed in 1979. Under Iran's constitution, the corps' task is to protect the revolution, which generally means that it makes sure that domestic forces don't threaten the theocratic state, said analyst William Samii of the Center for Naval Analyses. The center is a government-funded think tank for the Department of the Navy in Alexandria, Virginia.

In contrast, the conventional forces are tasked with protecting the country's borders and guaranteeing its security.

The naval move "makes perfect sense," Samii said in a telephone interview.

In recent years, the Iranian military has recognized that, in a toe-to-toe fight with the U.S. military, "they'd get squashed," Samii said.

In response, it has been focusing more on alternative tactics, in which the Revolutionary Guards excel, such as setting mine fields and using large numbers of small boats either packed with explosives or manned by personnel carrying rocket-propelled grenade launchers. The thinking is that at least one would be able to get close enough to a large enemy military vessel to attack it, Samii said.

"Iran is trying to send a signal that it is ready for any military eventuality and that it is prepared to defend itself aggressively," he said.

But the move could backfire by driving Iran's Gulf neighbors into the arms of the United States, which has guaranteed the security of Arab states in the Gulf for decades, Samii said.

Iran's Revolutionary Guards patrol Persian Gulf, U.S. says (http://www.iranfocus.com/modules/news/article.php?storyid=13373)

December 1, 2007, 20:00
Future Russia-EU deal falters
The Partnership Cooperation Agreement between Russia and the European Union has expired. It was signed ten years ago and will automatically be extended, but Russia says there is a need for a new long-term deal.

EU-Russia ties are facing critical challenges following a decade of global change.

“Today Russia is, of course, different from ten years ago and the EU today is absolutely not the same entity. Communication is bad - that’s why we need negotiations and that’s why we also need a new agreement,” notes Fyodor Lukyanov , Editor-in-Chief of the magazine 'Russia in Global Affairs'.

Since 1997 the EU has expanded and Russia's on the rise. Under these circumstances business seems to be catching up with the times. Currently Moscow and Brussels mediate through Partnership Cooperation Agreements: meetings, frameworks and objectives for contact. And business is booming through them.

According to President Putin European investment in Russia accounts for $US 43 BLN, while Russian investment in the EU is just one tenth of this at $US 4.3 BLN. However, profits could be bigger, relations more relaxed and processes more streamlined. So what’s the problem?

The reality is Russia's busy with elections and Europe is struggling to work out its future status after the failure of the EU constitution.

Marc Franco, head of EC delegation to Russia, says it's not an easy task to move forward. However, he believes, there light at the end of the tunnel, and ‘it’s not the train coming from the other side’.

Elsewhere, Poland blocked talks with Russia when Moscow imposed a meat ban after reports of unsanitary conditions. But with a change of government in Warsaw, tensions are easing.

So there is a certain hope a fresh partnership will be developing.

“It’s already clear that from the beginning of December both sides have come to the conclusion that the current agreement will be valid for another year automatically,” Presidential Special Envoy to EU, Sergey Yastrzhembsky, says.

It isn't the ten-year strategy both sides hoped for, but when new talks on the status of relations begin next year both Russia and Europe may be a little more prepared to work out future ties.

Future Russia-EU deal falters (http://www.russiatoday.ru/news/news/17832)

Russia pulls out of arms treaty

By Stephen Fidler and James Blitz in London
updated 7:41 p.m. MT, Fri., Nov. 30, 2007

President Vladimir Putin signed a law on Friday suspending Russia's participation in a key post-cold war arms treaty, triggering an angry reaction from the US, which declared the move a "mistake".

In a significant new indication of the worsening diplomatic relationship between Moscow and Washington, Mr Putin personally ratified a law that means Moscow will suspend the Conventional Forces in Europe treaty (CFE) in a little under two weeks.

Western military experts believe the CFE, first signed in 1990, is a significant treaty that limits the number of battle tanks, heavy artillery, combat aircraft and attack helicopters deployed and stored between the Atlantic and Russia's Ural mountains.

It also contains a significant array of confidence-building measures, requiring all signatories to give other states advance notice of troop movements and missile launches.

Senior officials from the US and other Nato states said Russia was now all but certain to suspend the treaty from December 12, a deadline it gave earlier this year unless an agreement could be forged with Nato countries. "Russia has made a mistake in this unilateral behaviour of walking out of a major arms control treaty in Europe," said Nicholas Burns, the US undersecretary of state for political affairs.

Senior officials from other Nato states said Washington and its allies now needed to decide when they would themselves suspend the treaty provisions.

"From December 12, Russia will not be giving notification of its troop movements or allow external inspections," said a senior official from a Nato government.

"We will therefore see a gradual degradation in the application of the treaty. By March or April of next year we will have to decide whether we start to suspend the application of the treaty to our own forces."

Russian and US negotiators met in Madrid on Thursday to discuss the CFE but no progress was made, US officials said.

A senior US official said Russia had demanded that so-called "flank limits" limiting the movement of Russian troops should be lifted in advance, while those restricting Nato troop movements should be left in force. "That is so one-sided it really isn't workable," he said.

Russia also demanded there should be a collective ceiling on Nato forces. But the US official said the purpose of the discussions had been to secure ratification of a previously negotiated adapted version of the CFE treaty - and the proposals relating to collective ceilings and flank limits would have required the adapted treaty to be renegotiated.

Differences remained also on the stationing of Russian troops in Moldova and Georgia. He said Mr Putin's move meant that prospects for the survival of the treaty had moved "close to vanishing point".

Russia pulls out of arms treaty (http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/22043711/)

Voters weigh Chavez's bid for more power

by Marc Burleigh Sun Dec 2, 10:12 AM ET

CARACAS (AFP) - A referendum by President Hugo Chavez to change Venezuela's constitution went to the vote Sunday amid deep opposition to his ambitions to impose a socialist economy and rule for life.

The predicted closeness of the result raised the prospect of post-poll violence among supporters and opponents.

Chavez, a 53-year-old former paratrooper who is using his country's vast oil wealth to mount a leftist challenge to US influence in Latin America, has warned of a suspected CIA plot to stir up trouble over his reform.

He has vowed to cut oil supplies to the United States if unrest occurs.

"There will be no oil for anyone, and the price per barrel will go up to 200 dollars," he said Saturday.

On Friday, in his final campaign rally, the ally to Iran and Cuba said: "A vote 'yes' is a vote for Chavez -- a vote 'no' is a vote for (US President) George W. Bush."

Surveys released in the lead-up to the referendum showed the result too close to call, with many in Chavez's traditional powerbase -- the poor who make up 80 percent of the 27-million-strong population -- balking at the constitutional changes.

Measures Chavez is trying to usher in include allowing limitless re-election for the president, giving the government the right to gag the press in emergencies, and permitting the expropriation of property.

He is also seeking to cut the workweek from 40 hours to 36 and reinforce costly social programs improving literacy and health among the poor.

The president, who first came to power in 1999, has said he wants to remain in charge "until 2050," when he would be 95.

Tulio Hernandez, a professor at the Central University of Venezuela, said Chavez's undeniable charisma could play a crucial role in favor of the referendum.

"People have never voted to support his socialist projects," Hernandez told AFP. "But he is a living incarnation of the savior, which is a very Latin American tradition."

Voting, taking place under warm and sunny skies, was to end at 4:00 pm (2000 GMT), with official partial results expected three hours later.

There were long lines at polling stations in the capital.

"I admire Chavez for everything he's done for the poor," said a guard in one, Ruben Gonzalez, 43.

But Carlos Fuente, a 33-year-old bank employee, said that, while he had backed Chavez in the past, this time he voted 'no' because he did not want to see "power concentrated in the hands of one man."

In one polling station, a military officer at the door told AFP on condition of anonymity that he had orders to block access to journalists from CNN, which Chavez has repeatedly railed against for alleged bias.

Fears of fraud were voiced in some of the centers after the discovery that the ink used to color voters' thumbs as they arrived for their ballots was easily removed.

"It's a trick by Chavez supporters to rig the referendum," said a voter, Doris Gordonne, 47, after casting her ballot in the San Bernardino district.

Maria Di Benedetto, the head of the polling station, said she had delayed voting for 90 minutes to write up a report on the issue to electoral authorities.

But Vicente Diaz, a member of the National Electoral Council (NEC), dismissed the complaint, saying the ink had been approved by officials and the opposition before polling began.

"If there is a problem with the ink in one place, it must be an isolated incident," he told state VTV television.

Unlike in past elections, there were no EU or Organization of American States election monitors, only international observers invited by the government.

One of them, former Bolivian president Jorge Quiroga, was stripped of his accreditation after expressing opinions that were "very aggressive against the institutions of the state," another NEC member, Sandra Oblitas, said.

Voters weigh Chavez's bid for more power (http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20071202/ts_afp/venezuelareferendum_071202150518;_ylt=AoFysKBtdlz0MW7jkc_FrCK9IxIF)

Kremlin hails Putin election win
From correspondents in Moscow
December 03, 2007 07:50am

PRESIDENT Vladimir Putin's party won a large majority in Russia's election today, but opposition parties cried foul and vowed to contest results which the Kremlin hailed as a big endorsement for Mr Putin.

First official results showed United Russia winning over 60 per cent of the vote - an outcome likely to be seen by the Kremlin as a strong mandate for Mr Putin to maintain a position of influence after his second presidential term ends next May.

"The overwhelming majority of Russian voters spoke in favour of United Russia, thus supporting President Putin's course, and spoke in favour of it being continued after the current president's second term ends," Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said after early results came in.

But election monitors reported widespread cases of ballot fraud, and two parties, including the Communist Party which is likely to be the biggest opposition force in the next parliament, said they would contest the election in the courts.

"These results are not fair. We intend to challenge them in the Supreme Court but we need a week to gather all the evidence," Communist leader Gennady Zyuganov said.

The liberal SPS party later said it would take similar legal action over the election.

With 13.7 per cent of votes counted, United Russia had 63.3 per cent of the vote, with nearest rivals the Communists on 11.5 per cent, Central Election Commission Chairman Vladimir Churov said.

He did not immediately comment on accusations of foul play but United Russia party leader Boris Gryzlov said any violations would "in no way put in doubt" the final result.

Two other parties - both of which have a record of backing the Kremlin - passed the seven per cent hurdle required to qualify for seats in the State Duma or lower house of parliament.

An exit poll from state-owned pollster VTSIOM gave a similar picture, with Mr Putin's party on 61 per cent and the same four parties in parliament.

According to VTSIOM's calculations, that vote would give pro-Kremlin parties 348 seats in parliament - far more than the 301 needed to change the constitution. This was something analysts say was a key Kremlin target in the election.

This could allow Mr Putin to change the constitution to give himself a third straight term as president.

But the Kremlin chief has repeatedly said he will not do this. And though he has said he envisages retaining influence after he leaves the Kremlin, how he will do this remains one of Russia's best-kept secrets.

United Russia's vote - if it stands as the remainder of the voters are counted - will help Mr Putin entrench himself as a "national leader" able to mould policy even after he steps down from the presidency next year.

Chris Weafer, chief strategist at Uralsib investment bank in Moscow, said the results were "not spectacular but good enough to allow President Putin to call the shots after March".

"He now has the initiative in terms of what role he wants to stay on in," said Mr Weafer.

Even before polls closed, opposition parties cried foul, alleging that numerous instances of pressure on voters, a one-sided campaign and systematic electoral fraud undermined the legitimacy of the result.

The main source of complaints was Golos, Russia's only independent election observer. Deputy head Grigory Melkonyans said the election fraud was systematic.

"These are not isolated incidents. The complaints are from every corner of Russia," he said.

Former world chess champion and opposition icon Garry Kasparov, who intentionally spoiled his ballot paper at a Moscow polling station, said: "They are not just rigging the vote, they are raping the whole electoral system."

"There were no sensations. The results were planned by the Kremlin well in advance and were known two months ago," said Stanislav Belkovsky, a former pro-Kremlin analyst and now its critic, said.

Early results from votes counted in the Far East indicated Russia's liberal, pro-Western parties would not be represented at all in parliament.

"We voted for Putin because we like him," said pensioners Valentina Antonovna, 84, and Zinaida Stepanova, 85, in Moscow. "It's the first time in our lives that we encounter such a president. We love him. And we love his style."

A strong Kremlin push to ensure a high turnout among voters appeared to have succeeded. Central Election Commission officials predicted that more than 60 per cent of voters would take part, up from 56 per cent in the last elections in 2003.

The West's main election monitoring body, the ODIHR, did not monitor today's poll after a row with Moscow over delays in issuing visas for observers.

Kremlin hails Putin election win (http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,22859819-1702,00.html?from=public_rss#)

Jordan's king urges Israel to 'withdraw'
Associated Press
THE JERUSALEM POST
Dec. 2, 2007

Jordan's King Abdullah II inaugurated a new parliament Sunday with a call on Israel to relinquish war-won Arab lands, saying that would help peace and security to prevail in the volatile Mideast.

The king also urged unity among feuding Palestinian factions, saying the time has come for statehood.

"We emphatically tell Israel that ending the occupation of Arab and Palestinian lands, withdrawing from there and implementing legitimate international resolutions are the only way to realize just, permanent and comprehensive peace," said the staunch US ally who maintains cordial relations with Israel under a 1994 peace treaty.

Abdullah said a peaceful Arab-Israeli settlement would "guarantee a safe future for the region's peoples and its coming generations."

"We also say to the Palestinians that strength is in unity and weakness in disunity; so, unite your ranks and seize the available opportunity to realize peace and establish your independent state in the West Bank and Gaza Strip," he said.

Abdullah spoke at the opening session of a newly elected parliament, where his loyalists handily defeated opposition in elections held two weeks ago.

The king, a fiery critic of militant Islam, vowed to continue fighting what he said was a "campaign of distortion being waged against our honorable religion by rejecting extremism, violence, and takfiri thought" - a reference to the extremist doctrine, which regards even non-militant Muslims as infidels.

Abdullah arrived to a lavish military ceremony outside the domed parliament chamber in the heart of Amman. The king, who holds the title of the Supreme Commander of the Armed Forces, inspected an honor guard as 21 guns boomed in a traditional salute.

Abdullah, 45, wore a black and gold ceremonial military uniform as he delivered his "Speech from the Throne" - the constitutional opening of the annual legislative sessions.

The elected 110-seat Chamber of Deputies met jointly with the 55-member, royally appointed Senate to hear Abdullah outline his policy. Abdullah's Palestinian-born wife, Queen Rania, and other members of the Hashemite family were also present.

Domestically, the king vowed continued reforms to improve living conditions in his oil-poor nation, saddled by a multibillion foreign debt and soaring unemployment, poverty and inflation.

"Our vision for Jordan's future is clear and
ambitious; its pillar is comprehensive reform and modernization - political, economic and social - for the sake of attaining the ultimate goal: improving citizens' standard of living and providing the means for a decent life to every Jordanian family."

He outlined an ambitious economic agenda, which envisioned improved financial and monetary stability, reduced government expenditure, free health insurance and effective supervision of water and food quality following several recent poisoning incidents.

He urged legislation to enhance transparency and accountability, including laws for a national ombudsman, human rights, the rights of women and children and the protection of youth.

The Jordanian opposition accuses the government of slow strides toward political reform, thought to be slowed down by fears of the rising influence of militants in Gaza and chaos in Iraq and Lebanon.

Since his accession to the throne in 1999, Abdullah has given wider freedoms to women, endorsed several independent radio stations and, for the first time, allowed local elections of officials who used to be appointed by the government.

Jordan's king urges Israel to 'withdraw' (http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?cid=1195546783746&pagename=JPost%2FJPArticle%2FPrinter)

U.S. cruiser spots 2 Iranian subs in Gulf

By Zachary M. Peterson - Staff writer
Posted : Sunday Dec 2, 2007 12:10:27 EST

ABOARD THE CRUISER VICKSBURG IN THE PERSIAN GULF — Officials aboard the cruiser Vicksburg spotted and photographed two surfaced Iranian Kilo-class submarines in the Persian Gulf a few weeks ago, the ship’s skipper told Navy Secretary Donald Winter during a visit to the ship on Saturday.

The Russian-designed diesel-electric attack subs were tracked and photographed by sailors onboard the Mayport, Fla.-based ship, said Capt. Chip Swicker. Crew members showed Winter the photographs of the surfaced subs. The Vicksburg did not communicate with either of the subs, Swicker said.

“They watched us and we watched them,” he said.

Crew members aboard the cruiser didn’t consider the encounters hostile, although it wasn’t clear if the Iranian boats surfaced within view of the cruiser or if the U.S. warship happened to see the Iranian subs while they were already running on the surface. Iran has a fleet of three Kilo-class SSKs, according to Jane’s Fighting Ships.

Swicker indicated the Vicksburg was close enough to Iranian waters at the times of the encounters that crew members didn’t consider it out of the ordinary to see Iranian navy vessels. Winter, accompanied by a Navy Times reporter, was aboard the ship as part of a nine-day trip through Iraq, Afghanistan and the Persian Gulf.

The Vicksburg crew told Winter about their encounters less than a week before Iran’s top navy commander claimed it was expanding its undersea fleet. On Wednesday, Iran said it was launching its own, new, home-built submarine, reportedly called the Ghadir. Iranian officials boasted that the small diesel-electric sub would “give a crushing answer to enemies when needed thanks to domestically-made equipment” and could fire missiles that could hit Israel.

The incidents recalled an encounter in October 2006 when a Chinese Song-class attack submarine surfaced near the carrier Kitty Hawk in the Western Pacific. Some analysts at the time called the act provocative, and pointed out the vulnerability of surface ships while they are shadowed by foreign submarines. It wasn’t clear whether Iranian sailors were attempting to send such a message to the Vicksburg.

The Vicksburg is wrapping up a six-month deployment to the Persian Gulf, where since August it has conducted maritime security operations. The ship is due back in Mayport in January.

Command Master Chief (SW) William Powell told Navy Times that the ship has spent much of its deployment patrolling the waters from the oil platforms in the northern Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Oman in the south. The ship has conducted several compliant boardings, but had not encountered any hostile ships during its time on the water, Powell said.

The Vicksburg is one of several ships from 20 different nations that patrol the waters of the Middle East, including the Persian Gulf and Arabian Sea to the south.

“The amount of activity is increasing” in the waters surrounding the Middle East, including East Africa, said Capt. George Cox, chief of staff for Combined Maritime Forces in the region. Several other nations are considering participating in patrols in the Arabian Sea, he noted.

Legitimate fishing vessels populate the waters under Cox’s oversight, where coalition naval forces focus on protecting the flow of oil out of the Persian Gulf. Occasionally ships will catch small-time pirates stealing a fishing dhow’s Global Positioning System unit, he said.

“We always want more forces, but we have plenty to take care of the [oil platforms] and do some patrols of the waterways,” Cox explained.

The captain said the fishermen in the region “love us.” Fishing vessels follow naval ships around for protection, Cox said.

“I just wish they’d tell al-Jazeera,” he added, referring to the pan-Arab satellite news channel based in Qatar.

Another goal of foreign naval forces in the region is building indigenous coast guard capabilities, Cox said.

He cited progress made by Combined Task Force 150, which is responsible for the Arabian Sea, Red Sea and waters off the Horn of Africa, in training and working in collaboration with the Yemeni coast guard.

Yemen is particularly concerned with human trafficking. Boats full of refugees from Somalia and Ethiopia come across the Gulf of Aden into the desert nation on the southwestern Arabian peninsula. Warships in the region report the positions of suspected vessels carrying human cargo, then the Yemenis capture the ships when they arrive in port, Cox explained.

Further, the six or seven coalition ships that patrol the area work to show presence and deter pirates, he added. However, beyond responding to calls for help, it is a difficult to task to battle pirates who stay close to territorial waters on the Somali coastline, Cox said.

Lt. John Gay, a spokesman for 5th Fleet, said that searching for pirates in the Arabian Sea is like “trying to find a needle in a haystack” and added that piracy is primarily a “law enforcement issue.”

U.S. cruiser spots 2 Iranian subs in Gulf (http://www.navytimes.com/news/2007/11/navy_iran_subs_071129w/)

Putin's future uncertain after election

By DOUGLAS BIRCH, Associated Press Writer 2 hours, 42 minutes ago

MOSCOW - President Vladimir Putin seems certain to claim Sunday's election triumph by his political party as a mandate to lead the country even after his term ends in May.

Now the main question is what specific job Putin might take to retain control — and who will be his choice for the next president.

Putin is widely credited here with leading his country out of the social and political wilderness of the 1990s when the collapse of Soviet power nearly led to the disintegration of Russian society.

"I voted for our United Russia because life has become better now under Putin, and we don't want any changes or revolutions," said Alla Kosaryeva, a 70-year-old retiree who lives in St. Petersburg.

There is little incentive for Putin to relinquish power over Russia, which is flush with revenue from oil and natural gas and where his power arguably rivals that of many of his Soviet and czarist predecessors.

Candidates for president may register until Dec. 23. Many are expected to do so, but only Putin's hand-picked successor seems to have a real chance of winning.

Whoever is chosen is likely to be a figurehead, or could even step aside early to allow Putin to recapture the presidential office. Currently the constitution prohibits a president from running for a third consecutive term.

Two-thirds of Russians polled by the respected Levada Center recently said they would support Putin serving another term. But Putin has repeatedly promised not to run, and a reversal would be out of character for the stern, tough-talking former KGB spy.

Olga Kryshtanovskaya, a sociologist and political analyst, believes that Putin will become United Russia's party chief and that the future president would follow his orders — recreating to some extent the Soviet-era model in which the government was subservient to the Communist Party.

"A president will be nominated by United Russia, and he will obey party discipline," she commented recently.

Sunday's election, meanwhile, eliminated all of Putin's liberal opponents from parliament. Amended election rules barred individual races that in the past allowed mavericks to win seats.

"We will continue our fight for democracy and liberal values," retiring deputy Vladimir Ryzhkov told the Associated Press in an interview Friday. "Not in the parliament, but in society. It's like in Soviet times, we are becoming dissidents because there are no legal ways to be in the opposition."

Many both here and abroad would interpret any maneuver to keep Putin in power as a major milestone in Russia's long retreat from the democratic reforms of the 1990s.

Putin's Russia is not a totalitarian state, and the current rift with the West is not yet a new Cold War. There is no gulag filled with political prisoners, no official censorship, no proxy wars being fought in the Third World.

But under Putin, the Kremlin has taken control of crucial industries. It has extended its control to Russia's far-flung provinces. Nominally independent institutions, including the courts, the media and parliament, have been brought to heel.

Abroad, Putin has challenged Western policies, accusing Washington of using "diktat" in its foreign policy. The Kremlin, in turn, has been accused by its enemies of waging a covert cyber war against Estonia, of helping rig Ukraine's 2004 elections and of ordering the killing of a former KGB officer in London using a radioactive poison — allegations Russian officials have strenuously denied.

By choosing to make the Kremlin once again Russia's sole center of power, analysts say, Putin has also resurrected some of the weaknesses that plagued the czarist and Communist systems.

Those familiar with Kremlin politics say Putin sometimes issues orders that, filtered through Russia's numerous layers of bureaucracy, are never executed.

A topdown system of government which tries to control the media and local elections, critics point out, may find itself pursuing disastrous or unpopular policies.

Russia's past absolutist governments were also faced with periodic succession crises, which sometimes led to bloodshed. So far there's no evidence that Putin's departure would lead to violence.

But Moscow's decision to use the parliamentary and presidential elections to ratify the Kremlin's choice of leadership, rather than permit a more open competition, has created a political crisis rare for Western democracies.

Putin is not just the leader of the Russian state, he is the arbiter of disputes among different Kremlin cliques and divides the corporate and political spoils. Without him, the Kremlin might split over such issues as how far Russia should go in confronting the West and consolidating state control of Russia's major industries.

If Putin were to step down, many analysts say, Russia could go through a period of accelerated redistribution of assets reminiscent of the case of the one-time billionaire Mikhail Khodorkovsky, former chief of Yukos Oil Co., whose company was broken up and sold for alleged back taxes following his 2003 arrest.

If Putin remains in office, though, some think he will inevitably become Russia's leader for life. The pressures on him to stay would grow with each passing year, as his presence was increasingly needed to maintain a balance among bitterly divided factions.

"Putin understands very well the pitiless laws of the system he has built up step by step over the past seven years," political analyst Andrei Piontkovsky wrote earlier this year. "If he takes that final step of agreeing to a third term, he is accepting a life sentence. ... The darkness at noon of the Kremlin will engulf him forever."

Putin's future uncertain after election (http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20071202/ap_on_re_eu/russia_putin_s_future;_ylt=AigMGpnqNX4HqXuYeXZQqesUewgF)

Iran's enemies cannot break our ties with Syria
By The Associated Press

Iran's adversaries cannot harm the strong and durable ties between Tehran and Damascus, President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said Sunday during a meeting with a top Syrian diplomat, state media reported.

The meeting between Ahmadinejad and Syria's Deputy Foreign Minister Faysal Mekdad came less than a week after Mekdad traveled to the United States to participate in Mideast summit.

During the trip, the Syrian delegation shook hands with U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice - indicating a slight thaw in the diplomatic chill between Washington and Damascus.

Though Iran never directly criticized its ally, Syria, for attending the
summit in Annapolis, Maryland, Ahmadinejad and other top officials denounced the summit, saying it was doomed to fail, and scolded Arab nations for going. Tehran was not invited to the meeting.

But Syria's attendance and Iran's harsh criticism of the summit appeared to indicate at least some tension between the two allies - a rare event between the two countries in the past decades.

During his meeting Sunday with Ahmadinejad, Mekdad gave the Iranian president a written message from Syrian President Bashar Assad and underlined the strategic relationship between the two countries, Iran's official news agency, IRNA, reported.

Both Ahmadinejad and Mekdad said Iran-Syrian ties remained strong.

Enemies cannot damage real and firm Tehran-Damascus relations, state-run TV quoted Ahmadinejad as saying.Mekdad also said Syrian would never let anyone harm the friendly ties between Iran and Syria, IRNA reported.

Ahmadinejad thanked Mekdad for giving him Assad's message - which state media didn't provide details about - and described the Syrian president as a prominent figure in the Arab and Islamic world.

The hardline Iranian leader also repeated his criticism of the Annapolis
summit and warned Middle East countries to avoid allowing the U.S. to take advantage of them in favor of its ally, Israel.

"All should be highly watchful that (U.S. President) George Bush will not be able to take another concession from Palestine in the latter parts of his governing term," state-run TV quoted Ahmadinejad as saying during his meeting with Mekdad.

Syria said it decided to send Mekdad to the summit only after the issue of the Golan Heights was added to the agenda.

U.S. officials hoped the Annapolis meeting could mark a start to moving Syria out of its alliance with Iran and Hamas and Hezbollah, both of which are Iranian-backed militant groups.

Iran's enemies cannot break our ties with Syria (http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/930244.html)

U.S., Israel should begin planning strike on Iran nuclear sites
By Aluf Benn, Haaretz Correspondent

Israel and the United States should begin an intense dialogue on ways to deal with Iran's nuclear plans and should examine ways to attack Iran's nuclear facilities, according to a new study published by an influential Washington think tank.

The report, by a former deputy head of the National Security Council, Chuck Freilich, says Israel and the U.S. should discuss nuclear-crisis scenarios between Israel and Iran. The report, entitled "Speaking About the Unspeakable," was released over the weekend by the Washington Institute for Near East Policy.

Freilich assumes that detailed talks between the U.S. and Israel on Iran do not extend beyond exchanges of intelligence, coordination of diplomatic moves and the supply of sophisticated weapons to Israel.

According to Freilich, a lack of symmetry exists between the U.S. and Israel on the Iranian threat, although both use similar rhetoric toward it. From Israel's perspective, Iran presents a potential existential threat, so its nuclear plans must be stopped at almost any price. In contrast, the U.S. is disturbed by the implications of nuclear weapons in Iran but does not see it as an existential threat.

In Freilich's view, this difference in evaluations dictates the nature of the dialogue. The U.S. is leery about talks with Israel on military action against Iran, and Israel is concerned about talks on security alternatives if Iran's nuclear status is accepted.

Freilich lists the alternatives; he believes that diplomacy and sanctions have a slim chance of success. He mentions a quasi-military alternative such as a naval blockade or secret sabotage action, an Israeli or American military action, or coming to terms with a nuclear Iran, with the U.S. giving security assurances to Israel. He opposes the proposal that Israel move to an open nuclear policy to deter Iran.

Freilich says Israel would prefer that the U.S. attack Iran. He notes that if Israel believes it can successfully attack Iran, Israel fears that the U.S. would veto the plan, so Israel would not unveil the scheme ahead of time. The U.S. would also keep secret from Israel any intention of attacking Iran.

Freilich believes that despite these mutual reservations, detailed discussions between the U.S. and Israel should be held on possible military action against Iran because of the need to separate forces if Israel attacks Iran and U.S. forces are in the way. In addition, Iran in any case would see the U.S. and Israel as cooperating and would respond against both.

Freilich proposes a dialogue on Iran's possible responses, on terror attacks and the disruption of oil shipments from the Gulf to the West. But he also seeks a dialogue on how to live with a nuclear Iran.

U.S., Israel should begin planning strike on Iran nuclear sites (http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/930162.html)

Putin's party wins Russian election

MOSCOW- European election monitors said Monday that Russia's parliamentary ballot was unfair, hours after President Vladimir Putin's party swept 70 percent of the seats in the new legislature.

The victory paves the way for Putin to remain Russia's de facto leader even after he leaves office next spring.

Sunday's vote followed a tense Kremlin campaign that relied on a combination of persuasion and intimidation to ensure victory for the United Russia party and for Putin, who has used a flood of oil revenues to move his country into a more assertive position on the global stage.

Luc van den Brande, who headed the delegation from the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe said that officials had brought the "overwhelming influence of the president's office and the president" to bear on the campaign, and that "administrative resources" had been used to influence the outcome.

Goran Lennmarker, president of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe's parliamentary assembly, said it was "not a fair election."

The Kremlin and its allies hailed the vote as an overwhelming endorsement of Putin and his policies.

"The vote affirmed the main idea: that Vladimir Putin is the national leader, that the people support his course, and this course will continue," party leader and parliament speaker Boris Gryzlov said after exit polls were announced.

The Bush administration called for a probe into voting irregularities. Communist Party leader Gennady Zyuganov called the election "the most irresponsible and dirty" in the post-Soviet era and party officials vowed to challenge the results.

Kimmo Kiljunen, vice president of the Office of Security and Cooperation in Europe's Parliamentary Assembly, called the elections "strange" and "problematic" because of reports of harassment of parties and confiscation of election materials.

"There was the strange situation that the executive branch almost chose the legislative branch," Kiljunen said. "It is supposed to be the other way round."

With ballots from nearly 98 percent of precincts counted, United Russia was leading with 64.1 percent, while the Communists trailed with 11.6 percent, the Central Election Commission said.

Turnout was about 63 percent, up from 56 percent in the last parliamentary elections four years ago.

United Russia's victory would give it 315 seats, or 70 percent of the seats in Russia's 450-seat State Duma, the Central Election Commission said. The Communists would have just over 50 seats.

The Kremlin portrayed the election as a plebiscite on Putin's nearly eight years as president _ with the promise that a major victory would allow him somehow to remain leader after his second term ends next year.

Putin is constitutionally prohibited from running for a third consecutive term, but he clearly wants to remain in power even though he has ruled out changing the constitution to allow him to run for another term as president. A movement has sprung up in recent weeks to urge him to become a "national leader," though it's not clear what that would mean.

Two other pro-Kremlin parties _ the nationalist Liberal Democratic Party and populist Just Russia _ also appeared to have made it into parliament, with 8.2 percent and 7.6 percent of the vote, respectively.

Andrei Lugovoi, a former KGB officer and chief suspect in the poisoning death of Kremlin critic Alexander Litvinenko in London last year, will serve as deputy from the Liberal Democratic Party. Russia has refused to hand Lugovoi over to Britain, and the Duma seat provides him with immunity from prosecution.

No other parties passed the 7 percent threshold for gaining seats in the legislature. Both opposition liberal parties were shut out, expected to win no more than 2 or 3 percent of the vote each.

Many Russians complained Sunday about being pressured to cast their ballots, with teachers, doctors and others saying they had been ordered by their bosses to vote.

"People are being forced and threatened to vote; otherwise they won't get their salaries or pensions," said Boris Nemtsov, leader of the liberal Union of Right Forces party.

Dozens of voters reported being paid to cast ballots for United Russia, said Alexander Kynev, a political expert with election monitoring group Golos. In the town of Pestovo in the western Novgorod region, voters complained they were given ballots already filled out for United Russia, he said.

In Chechnya, where turnout was over 99 percent, witnesses reported seeing election authorities filling out and casting voter ballots in the suburbs of the regional capital, Grozny.

There was a tense, subdued mood at some polling stations. Yelena, a 32-year-old manager in St. Petersburg, refused to give her last name out of fear of official retaliation for voting for the liberal Yabloko party.

"We live in a country with an absence of democracy and freedom of speech," she said.

The Kremlin appeared determined to engineer a resounding victory. But Putin, credited with rebuilding Russia after the poverty and uncertainty of the 1990s, has support from many Russians.

"Today everything is clear and stable in life. The president's words always coincide with what he does. As for the other candidates we don't know yet where they would take us to," said Raisa Tretyakova, a 61-year-old pensioner in St. Petersburg.

The Bush administration called on Russia to investigate claims the vote was manipulated.

"In the run-up to election day, we expressed our concern regarding the use of state administrative resources in support of United Russia, the bias of the state-owned or -influenced media in favor of United Russia, intimidation of political opposition, and the lack of equal opportunity encountered by opposition candidates and parties," said Gordon Johndroe, spokesman for the National Security Council.

The election monitoring arm of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, regarded in the West as the most authoritative election monitor, canceled plans to send observers.

Third term for Putin would not faze most Russians
Wed Dec 5, 2007 12:35pm EST

By Oleg Shchedrov

MOSCOW (Reuters) - Most Russians would not think worse of President Vladimir Putin if he breached the constitution and ran for a third term in March presidential elections, according to an opinion poll published on Wednesday.

Putin, whose approval ratings top 70 percent, has promised to respect the constitution, which bans him running for a third consecutive four-year term. His popularity has prompted a wave of calls by political allies for him to change his mind.

A poll by the independent Levada Centre showed 55 percent would not change their view of Putin if he decided to run again, while another 22 percent said it would improve their opinion.

Putin has already said he wants to keep political influence after leaving the Kremlin but he has not explained how.

Demands to formalise Putin's future role have topped the agenda of his United Russia party, which won a landslide victory in a parliamentary election last Sunday.

"Putin is our national leader and he will remain the national leader whatever job he takes after the presidential election," United Russia chief Boris Gryzlov has said.

Kremlin officials say Sunday's election result, with a combined 72 percent of votes won by pro-Kremlin parties, is a demonstration of public support for Putin to maintain power. But it remains unclear what the role of "national leader" might be.

CONFUSION

When asked how they would view Putin becoming a "national leader", only 17 percent said they fully supported the idea. Another 27 percent said they would back it if the new title were approved through a referendum or constitutional changes.

Thirty percent of respondents opposed the idea.

The most radical Putin supporters have suggested a post of national leader with sweeping powers should be instituted at a specially convened Congress, which they compare with the one that installed the Romanov family as Russian tsars in 1613.

State-owned pollster VTsIOM said its own poll on the issue showed 52 percent of respondents found it difficult to say what "national leader" would mean in practice. Only 2 percent of them said a national leader "should be like Putin".

Third term for Putin would not faze most Russians (http://www.reuters.com/articlePrint?articleId=USL0529664120071205)

Peres warns: One morning we'll wake to a nuclear Iran

Israeli President Peres meets with former American Secretary of State, exhorting world not to compromise with Iran over nukes

Roni Sofer
Published: 12.05.07, 16:49
Israel News

According to President Shimon Peres, historically, intelligence reports sometimes turn out to be inaccurate, but on the Iranian issue the international community must eschew compromise and focus on a few clear warning signs.

Peres thus spoke during a meeting with former American Secretary of State Madeleine Albright, who is visiting Israel. He warned that whenever Iran develops a successful civilian nuclear energy program, the transition to developing nuclear weapons will be quick and easy.

Furthermore, Peres warned that it was impossible for any intelligence agency to know the exact nature and scope of the technological knowledge purchased from North Korea and Russia at high prices. "We are likely to wake up one morning and discover that comprehensive nuclear technology was passed on without interruption and is close to implementation," he said.

The President spoke with Albright regarding Israeli fears of Iranian investment in developing long-range ballistic missiles capable of hitting targets in Europe. Peres said that Iran has no justification for building these conventional missiles, hides its intentions and activities, and feeds the international community nothing more that crumbs of information.

Peres indicated that he was concerned by remarks made by Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, pointing to the extremist leader's declared intention to destroy Israel and sow destruction upon the democratic world. The President concluded by saying that the international community must not cease its efforts against Ahmadinejad and the Iranian nuclear weapons program.

Livni: World can't afford Iran as nuclear superpower

Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni reiterated Wednesday that sanctions must be tightened. "As we speak," Livni said to Slovenia's President Danilo Türk during a meeting in Ljubljana, "Iran continues to work towards nuclear capabilities. It is clear the world can not afford that."

Livni emphasized that Iran repeatedly defied the UN Security Council's decisions and praised the reactions in Washington and Europe to the report "that show they understand Iran must be prevented from becoming a nuclear superpower."

NIE and the intelligence u-turn

The American National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) — a report representing the collective views of all 16 US intelligence agencies — which was published Monday, asserted that Iran froze its nuclear weapons program as far back as 2003, and that the country no longer works toward developing the technology apart from uranium enrichment. The estimate contradicts the picture accepted by western intelligence agencies over the past two years, according to which Iran was zealously working to build a nuclear weapon.

Ahmadinejad responded to the NIE Wednesday morning by declaring that Iran has no intention of forfeiting its plans for a civilian nuclear program and called the American report a "declaration of victory" for the Iranian Nuclear Program. "Today, the Iranian nation is victorious but you (the US) came out empty handed…. The report declares the victory of the Iranian nation on the nuclear issue over the international community."

Peres warns: One morning we'll wake to a nuclear Iran (http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-3479328,00.html)

Rise of India and China will lead to a new world order
Jonathan Manthorpe, Vancouver Sun
Published: Monday, December 03, 2007

In the deal between Washington and New Delhi under which India is forgiven for having ignored every treaty in the book on nuclear power we have been given a glimpse into the future.

And the future is going to be a difficult place for countries like Canada.

The rule-based international system that we and like-minded countries have spent so much effort putting in place for the last century or so is not going to survive the rise to superpower status of India and China.

They will make their own rules and impose their own values.

In an unusual moment of realism, the administration of president George W. Bush recognized this when it decided it was better to be India's nuclear partner than to continue berating New Delhi for having shot the carefully constructed nuclear management regime full of holes.

Canada, still smoldering with resentment that it was a Candu reactor that India used in the early 1970s to provide the makings for its first nuclear weapon, has yet to make the same leap.

But, as C. Raja Mohan, a former member of India's National Security Advisory Board, said here last week, Canada and similar small but wealthy western countries should take a cool, hard-nosed look into the future and decide where their best interests lie.

Speaking in a lecture series sponsored by the BMO Financial Group and the Canadian Institute for International Affairs, Mohan said he does not think the western world has grasped the full implications of the rise of Asia, especially India and China.

Both, he said, will match or overtake the superpower status of the United States within 30 years. And with combined populations of about 2.5 billion people the demands India and China are going to make on world resources once they begin to achieve real prosperity is almost beyond imagination.

A major challenge for both countries will be to avoid their contest to control resources leading to military confrontations.

But Mohan said he expects both countries to continue the already evident contest for access to resources, especially energy.

Neither country fully accepts the Western belief that they should trust the marketplace to provide the resources they need to develop. They want control.

So it would be a big mistake for western countries, Mohan said, to imagine that China and India as superpowers will slot into the template for international behaviour that has been created by the nations of the North Atlantic basin.

It is in the nature of superpowers throughout history that they fashion the international system to meet their own interests, and China and India will be no different, he said.

Mohan pointed out that although India is the world's largest democracy, it does not automatically support other democratic countries rather than authoritarian regimes. In its support for the regimes in Sudan and Burma (Myanmar), for example, New Delhi has made a classic trade-off between its values and its national interest in securing access to the resources of those two countries.

Despite that, Mohan said, India's political and social attitudes stem from the West. Indeed, "India is the most important place outside the West that is built on the values of the Enlightenment. We may well become the leader of the West in the future."

But as the experience of New Delhi's refusal to go along with the rules of the international nuclear club has shown, India is going to be a revisionist power, Mohan said.

"The issue for countries like Canada is if India and China have the power to change the rules, you are going to have to deal with it. You can have as many international norms as you like, but if India and China have the power to ignore them, you are going to have deal with it," he said.

"If India and China decide to melt the ice cap, you are going to have to deal with it."

ON THE SHELF

The implications of China's return to superpower status after a centuries on the sidelines are difficult enough to grasp. For us in Canada there is the added perplexity of trying to work out what the dominant attitude is in the U.S. The picture south of the border is usually of a clash between extreme optimists and pessimists. Former Beijing bureau chief for the Los Angeles Times, James Mann has come to our aid with a neat little volume examining American attitudes towards China. The China fantasy: How Our Leaders Explain Away

Chinese Repression is a series of essays perfect for keeping in a pocket for reading on the commuter bus or train. Mann is of the view that the frequently voiced American opinion that China will adopt western liberal democratic values is dangerous wishful thinking. Much more likely, he thinks, is a China governed by "authoritarian capitalism," a phrase synonymous with fascism.

Rise of India and China will lead to a new world order (http://www.canada.com/vancouversun/news/business/story.html?id=5093aa13-eba8-415f-9d12-d9084a41360d)

Russian navy to start sorties in northern Atlantic
Wed Dec 5, 2007 4:16pm EST

By Guy Faulconbridge

MOSCOW (Reuters) - Russia said on Wednesday it would start the first major navy sortie into the Mediterranean since Soviet times, the latest move by an increasingly assertive Moscow to demonstrate its military might.

"The aim of the sorties is to ensure a naval presence in tactically important regions of the world ocean," Defense Minister Anatoly Serdyukov told President Vladimir Putin, who wished the sailors well. The rest of the meeting was closed.

Serdyukov said 11 ships, including an aircraft carrier, would take part in the sortie and be backed up by 47 aircraft -- including strategic bombers.

Buoyed by huge oil revenues, Russia under Putin has been boosting military spending while at the same time using diplomacy to broaden Moscow's influence.

Earlier this year Putin announced that long-range strategic bombers would resume patrols around the world and Russia's long-range nuclear forces have test-fired new missiles.

But analysts say the navy, once the focus of national pride and symbol of the Soviet Union's military might, is still reeling from more than a decade of underfunding.

A series of accidents -- such as the sinking of the Kursk nuclear submarine in 2000 -- have hurt the Russian navy's reputation at home and abroad.

Serdyukov said the navy's flagship aircraft carrier, the Admiral Kuznetsov, and anti-submarine ships had set out for the Mediterranean on Wednesday from the Northern Fleet's base in Severomorsk, in the Arctic Circle.

Black Sea fleet ships and aircraft support would meet them in the Mediterranean. He said military exercises would be held during the sorties and that the group would visit six foreign states. He did not name them.

He also said Northern Fleet would make sorties into the northern Atlantic.

Russia has long been talking about reviving a permanent naval base in the Mediterranean. During the Cold War, the Soviet navy had a permanent presence on the Mediterranean, using the Syrian port of Tartus as a supply point.

Russian navy to start sorties in northern Atlantic (http://www.reuters.com/articlePrint?articleId=USL0518563620071205)

Gulf states urge peace with Iran
4 December 2007

Gulf leaders have ended their summit in Qatar reiterating their desire for a peaceful solution to the conflict over Iran's nuclear ambitions.

The Gulf Co-operation Council's final communique said the body would examine the Iranian president's offer of closer security and economic ties.

It did not mention the US intelligence assessment that said Iran had halted its nuclear arms programme.

Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is the first Iran president to attend a GCC summit.

The final GCC communique also said members would form a common market in 2008 and remained committed to a target date of 2010 for the achievement of monetary union.

"The Gulf common market aims to create one market... raising production efficiency and optimum usage of available resources and improving the six countries' negotiating position among international economic forums," said the final declaration.

Citizens of the six Gulf states will have equal rights to carry out business in any GCC country and equal residency rights.

But BBC economics correspondent Andrew Walker says the most interesting issue for international financial markets was not mentioned - the question of whether Gulf states would stop linking their currencies to the US dollar.

After the meeting, Qatar's prime minister said the policy was for now to stick with the dollar link.

Such policies can help maintain financial stability, our correspondent says, but the recent decline of the dollar in the currency markets has created problems for the Gulf states.

'Mutual respect'

Summit host Qatar welcomed Mr Ahmadinejad's proposals on security and forming an organisation to improve economic co-operation.

"They will be examined by the GCC in a way to reinforce the relations of good neighbourhood and mutual respect... and to contribute to strengthening security and stability in the region," a statement said.

Correspondents say, however, that Mr Ahmadinejad's speech was received coolly by some national delegations and one official was quoted complaining that he had referred to the stretch of water separating Iran and the Arab Gulf states as the "Persian Gulf".

The council, made up of Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates was founded in 1980 to strengthen Arab Gulf States after the outbreak of the Iran-Iraq war.

Gulf states urge peace with Iran (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/7127451.stm)

Iran, Lebanon, Russia, and India—It is about Power and Oil
By David J. Jonsson

For Muslims, three cities of the Christian faith have particular significance: Jerusalem, Constantinople and Rome. The fall of Constantinople is described in detail in my earlier book, The Clash of Ideologies--The Making of the Christian and Islamic Worlds. Iran with its relations and support of Hamas and Hezbollah now has access to the Mediterranean and is the neighbor of Jerusalem. Italy was the first country from which Iran withdrew is funds. In my new book, Islamic Economics and the Final Jihad – The Muslim Brotherhood to the Leftist/Marxist – Islamist Alliance, I discuss how this Alliance is coalescing on a global scale through the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) and Mercosur in South America. Although, the world is focused on the potential for destruction by Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD), the real potential for an economic holocaust exists as discussed in the book: Islamic Economics and the Final Jihad. The asymmetric War being waged is occurring simultaneously through terrorism, military action and economic means. The conflicts in the Middle East can not resolved leading to sustainable peace until the U.S. and the West develop a strategy for energy security and self-sufficiency. Implementing a strategy for self-sufficiency will needless to say be expensive and require sacrifice. Continued military action and endless conferences will not resolve the issues. The unacceptable alternate option is to accept totalitarian rule and elimination of our freedom and liberty.

# Similarities to Events Leading up to WW1
# The Rise of Shiite Power in the Gulf
# The Three Factions in the Struggle for World Domination
# The Rome Conference, the Arab Oil Embargo of 1973-4 and the Euro-Arab Dialog (EAD)
# The Taef Accord of 1989
# The Arc of Shiite Control vs. the Sunni Pan-Islam
# The Roles of Hezbollah and Al Qaeda
# Russia and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO)
# Venezuela and Mecosur Flame the Fires of Conflict
# Venezuela and Egypt to Gain Seats on the United Nations Security Council
# Russia and Iran Challenge OPEC – Russia Leaves the West?
# The Role of the Petroleum Commons
# Sunni Terrorism Spreads East
# The Apocalyptic Teaching of Islam
# Conclusion

Similarities to Events Leading up to WW1

Recent events in Palestine, Lebanon and Egypt make it imperative that we pay heed to the apocalyptic teachings of Islam—both Shia and Sunni. Then you must also recall the events of 1914 leading up to WW1. One should also consider that following WW1 and the fall of Ottoman Empire’ the secular government of Ataturk in Turkey was formed and also that following these events the Muslim Brotherhood was formed. Today, Turkey is again an Islamic state.

The assassination of the Austrian archduke by a Serbian nationalist terrorist provided the senescent Austro-Hungarian Empire the excuse it had been looking for to wipe out the Serbian nationalists, which provoked the pan-Slavic nationalists at work for the czar to threaten the Austro-Hungarians with destruction, which led Germany's Kaiser to pledge retaliatory war against Russia, which prompted the French, who had an anti-German alliance with Russia, to begin mobilization. . . . Nobody wanted global conflagration, yet nobody knew how to stop it, and the American president (Woodrow Wilson, who was not yet a Wilsonian) did nothing to help avert the coming war. Within a month, the war came, and it took the remainder of the 20th century for the world to fully recover.

The Leftist activists of the world are decrying the “lack of proportionality” in Israel’s response to the unprovoked attack on its military personnel and civilians within the State of Israel, it would be important to recall a similar episode in United States history.

In a personal communication from Dr. Steve Carol Senior Fellow Center for Advanced Middle East Studies he recalled the situation on March 6, 1916, where a group of 360 Villistas (followers of Pancho Villa) crossed the international border between the United States and Mexico and attacked the town of Columbus, New Mexico. Their immediate goal was to obtain weapons from the nearby headquarters of the U.S. 13th Cavalry. 18 Americans were killed and additional 9 were killed in pursuit of the attackers back to the border. German agents directed by Luther Wertz, a key German operative in Mexico, led the raid. Germany wanted to keep the United States out of World War I, which was then raging, and sought to divert U.S. attention from Europe to south of the border.

The unprovoked attack on the United States triggered demands for retaliation and punishment of the raiders. There was no talk of “proportional” response.

As a result, President Woodrow Wilson ordered General John J. “Blackjack” Pershing and 6,000 American troops on a “Punitive Expedition” into Mexico. The force crossed into Mexico some two weeks after the initial attack and would penetrate some 300 miles into Mexico. During its nine-month stay in Mexico, U.S. forces would clash with Villistas as well as with Mexican Federal troops.

The Villistas again attacked the United States on May 5, 1916, raiding Glen Springs and Borquilla, Texas. This prompted President Wilson to send an additional force of 8,000 troops into Mexico. On June 18th he additionally called up the Texas, New Mexico, and Arizona National Guard and sent 150,000 men to patrol the U.S. border. Wilson also placed an arms embargo on Mexico, which included food and even horses.

On June 24th there was a clash between U.S. and Mexican forces at Carrizal, with 84 U.S. soldiers being surrounded by superior Mexican forces. Over half escaped but 14 were killed and 24 U.S. servicemen were taken prisoner.

Wilson’s reaction was immediate. The next day he demanded the released of the captured soldiers and to back up his demands he mobilized the entire U.S. National Guard and incorporated it into the regular army. He dispatched American warships to patrol and enforce a blockade on Mexican ports on both its east and west coasts. All the American prisoners were released five days later on June 30th. There was no talk of a “lack of proportionality.”

U.S. forces while in Mexico, did not catch Pancho Villa, but they crippled his ability to strike at the United States and inflicted heavy casualties on his forces.

The American force was withdrawn, unexpectedly, on January 25, 1917, not due to any Mexican or international pressure, but rather because the U.S. had obtained information that Germany intended to resume unrestricted submarine warfare, a step that would bring the U.S. into World War I. Additionally the U.S. had obtained proof, via the Zimmermann Telegram that Germany was seeking an anti-U.S. alliance with both Mexico and Japan. Thus the U.S. force was withdrawn so as not to give Mexico additional cause for considering such an alliance.

I review this familiar history for those of us (myself included) who've been wondering how the kidnapping of three Israeli soldiers (and the killing of eight others in the Hezbollah raid) has escalated in less than a week to what may be the brink of a cataclysmic regional war with ghastly global implications. The two crises and the sets of conflicting forces are by no means parallel, but in each the power of nationalism, the sense of national victimization, the need for revenge, the opportunity for miscalculation, the illusion of attainable victory, and all-around fear and rage loom large.

If you thought that the latest Middle East crisis is just another in the endless war of Arabs and Jews killing each other, you’re wrong. There is a telltale sign that there is a major new development underlying this bloodshed and mayhem.

That sign: the world's Arab powers have not launched their customary tirades against Israel. Indeed, astonishingly, the collective voice of the Arab world, the 22-nation Arab League, has criticized the Hezbollah, the Iranian Shiite Muslim sponsored terrorist group that is attacking Israel from Lebanese territory. This should not be interpreted, as some have described, as a moderation of their anti-Semitic position toward Israel. The Arab League blamed Hezbollah for “unexpected, inappropriate and irresponsible acts” in kidnapping two Israeli soldiers and launching missiles at Israel. It is the first time that the Arab League has criticized any Muslim force engaged in a war against Israel. Thus, setting the stage for the renewed conflict between Shia and Sunni on a world scale.

cont'd next post!!

The Rise of Shiite Power in the Gulf

Although there is no such thing as pan-Shiism, or even a unified leadership of the community, the Shiites share a coherent religious view since splitting off from the Sunnis in the seventh century over who was the legitimate successor that was to lead the Muslims. As described in Islamic Economics and the Final Jihad, the lack of a unified leadership does not preclude their desire to form the Ummah (Islamic community) among all Shiites. The Shia have developed their own concept of jurisprudence (Shariah – Islamic Law) and practice. The separate schools of jurisprudence do in fact complicate Islamic financial transactions.

The sheer size of the Shia population today makes them a powerful constituency. Shiite population accounts for 90 percent of Iranians, the majority in Iraq, some 75 percent in Bahrain and 45 percent of Lebanon. Some 70 percent of the people living in the Gulf region are Shiites.

Why is Hezbollah making provocative attacks on Israel? Iran sees itself as the region's great power. Iran is feeling under threat, and, at the same time, feeling a surge in its own potential power. It feels under threat because the U.S. invasions of Afghanistan and Iraq have brought American forces onto its frontiers. However the Shiites seek to cooperate in a limited fashion with the U.S. in Iraq, maintaining a measured degree of instability to keep the pressure on the Sunnis until they have accomplished their goal of total control. Keeping the U.S. bogged down in Iraq, opening the new front in Lebanon reduces the pressure on Iran and their nuclear ambitions and prevents attention to potential near conflicts in Latin America as we discuss below.

This role of the U.S. in Iraq emboldened the rise of Shiism throughout the region. The Middle East that will emerge from the crucible of the Iraq War may not be more democratic, but it will be more Shiite and it will be more fractious. Such actions will lead to the desire of both Shia and Sunnis to increase armaments of WMDs including nuclear capability and likelihood of further armed conflict. It should be remembered that far more people have been killed in the conflicts between Sunni and Shiites than between the Arabs and Israel.

And it is this sense of vulnerability that is helping stir the thrill of its own potential power. Yes, the invasion of Iraq did bring the U.S. uncomfortably close to Iran, but it also removed the threat posed by Saddam Hussein, a trenchant enemy.

The invasion of Iraq also gave new urgency to the Iranian project to acquire the nuclear bomb, an act of insurance lest the U.S. decides to move against another of the “axis of evil” states. In the interim, however, the chaos in Iraq and America's apparent helplessness has tempted Iran to think of the U.S. as being weak.

And the election of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad as President has reinvigorated the revolutionary fervor and apocalyptic teaching in the Islamic Republic of Iran.

Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki of Iraq on July 19 forcefully denounced the Israeli attacks on Lebanon, marking a sharp break with President Bush's position and highlighting the growing power of a Shiite Muslim identity across the Middle East.

The comments by al-Maliki, a Shiite Arab whose party has close ties to Iran, were noticeably stronger than those made by Sunni Arab governments in recent days. Those governments have refused to take an unequivocal stand on Lebanon, reflecting their concern about the growing influence of Iran, which has a Shiite majority and has been accused by Israel of providing weapons to Hezbollah, the Lebanese Shiite militant group.

A growing number of Iraqi officials have stepped forward in recent days to condemn Israel. Their stance also calls into question one of the rationales for the U.S. invasion of Iraq - that a U.S.-backed democratic state here would become an ally of Israel and catalyze a change of attitude across the rest of the Arab world.

Saudi Arabia is also upset by the possibility of Iran developing nuclear capability and hence will probably not standby without developing their nuclear capability, which in all likelihood is underway.

The Three Factions in the Struggle for World Domination

The recent world events lead one to the conclusion that there are three principle players in this current struggle—the Shia faction represented by Iran and their surrogate pawns represented by the Hezbollah or Hizbollah/Hizbullah or Hezb'Allah (meaning Party of God) in Lebanon and Syria, Hamas in Palestine, the Sunni faction including Saudi Arabia, Egypt and other predominant Sunni countries and the Israel aligned with the United States. However as reported by Lydia Georgi - RIYADH in Middle East Online it should be noted that Saudi Arabia, has indirectly blamed the Iranian-backed Hezbollah for Israel's onslaught against Lebanon, is wary of Tehran using Arab states to pursue its own agenda, experts said July 18, 2006. The oil-rich kingdom last week accused the Shiite militant movement, without naming it, of “adventurism” that put all Arab countries at risk by capturing two Israeli soldiers and triggering Israel's offensive.

“It is necessary to make a distinction between legitimate resistance and uncalculated adventurism by certain elements,” an official source said.

“The kingdom is not concerned by the extension of Iran's influence per se but by the fact that it uses Arab countries such as Syria, Lebanon and Iraq to pursue its political interests,” commentator Qenan al-Ghamdi a columnist for the Saudi Al-Watan daily, said.

“When these countries land in trouble, it is Saudi Arabia that bears the consequences, as happened in Lebanon in the past and will happen again now” after the devastation caused by Israel's attacks, he said.

Some will recall that back in 2000, Hezbollah was held up by fellow Shiites as well as Sunnis and some Christians as a model for resisting Israel. The division today springs from the reality that did not exist six years ago—the rise to power of the Shiites in Iraq and the recurrence of increasing tensions between the Shiites and Sunni.

The withholding of condemnation of Israel by Saudi Arabia did not last long. In a report by Aljazeera on July 25, 2006, the Saudi king Abdullah has warned that war could break out in the Middle East if attempts to broker peace in the region fail. In a statement read out on state television on Tuesday, King Abdullah said, "If the option of peace fails as a result of Israeli arrogance, then the only option remaining will be war, and God alone knows what the region would witness in a conflict that would spare no one."

His remarks were unusually forthright for the world's top oil exporter, which has called for ceasefire but blamed Lebanon's Hizbollah guerrilla group for the crisis that has so far killed at least 413 people in Lebanon and 42 Israelis.

The comments also appeared to be aimed at the United States, Israel's ally that has resisted calls for an immediate ceasefire.

Saudi Arabia pledged $500 million to rebuild Lebanon and $250 million for the Palestinians. The kingdom will also transfer $1 billion to Lebanon's central bank to help its economy.

The diplomat said the financial support was a sign of a tussle for influence once the fighting stops in Lebanon between Iran, backing Hizbollah, and Arab states, behind the government.

The Rome Conference, the Arab Oil Embargo of 1973-4 and the Euro-Arab Dialog (EAD)

The Rome Conference on Lebanon takes place on July 26. Among those expected at the Rome conference are: the United States, Russia, Britain, France, Germany, Italy, Egypt, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, the World Bank, the United Nations and the European Union.

The recent events are a reminder of the events leading to the Arab Oil Embargo of 1973-74, which then led to the Euro-Arab Dialog (EAD) that pitted European countries against the U.S. in need to gain access to oil. It was also the EAD that led to the beginning of the Islamization of Europe. The events surrounding the Embargo and the EAD are documented in Eurabia: The Euro-Arab Axis by Bat Ye’Or and Islamic Economics and the Final Jihad.

Senator Richard Lugar, a Republican from Indiana who is the chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, said in a speech this year, “No one who is honestly assessing the decline of U.S. leverage around the world due to our energy dependence can fail to see that energy is the albatross of U.S. national security.”

The Taef Accord of 1989

Saudi Arabia sponsored and hosted the Taef accord of 1989 which ended Lebanon's 15-year civil war in 1990 and has since helped fund its reconstruction. In the current crisis, it has offered 50 million dollars in immediate aid.

The Taif accords transferred power away from the Lebanese presidency, traditionally given to Maronites, and invested it in a cabinet divided equally between Muslims and Christians. The Taif accords also declared the intention of extending Lebanese government sovereignty over southern Lebanon. Though Israel eventually withdrew from southern Lebanon in 2000, armed Hizbollah militia remained in control of the area, apparently maintaining a tacit arrangement whereby Hezbollah could harass Israel within limits, but not so seriously that it would provoke a massive retaliation. The Hezbollah essentially created a separate state within Lebanon. A state that did not benefit from the economic gains in the Lebanon reconstruction after the civil war.

Even if Syria, which is an ally of Shiite Iran and likewise a supporter of Hezbollah, were attacked by Israel, Saudi Arabia would also end up footing the bill.

A member of the appointed Shura (consultative) Council, who asked not to be named, said Saudi Arabia could not sit back and watch Lebanon being used “as an arena for settling scores or waging proxy wars”.

cont'd next post!!

The Arc of Shiite Control vs. the Sunni Pan-Islam

At the same time the Shia faction has built up their alliance of countries stretching from Iran to the Mediterranean—including Iraq, Syria and recently Lebanon and Palestine. It has been the long-term goal of the Sunnis to build a Pan-Arabic Ummah stretching from Indonesia to Andalusia (Spain). The only country blocking total access is Israel. A result of the Iraq war was to oust control by the Sunnis from Iraq and replace it with a Shia dominated government. In many respects this has placed the U.S. military in the crosshairs of the Sunni faction. According to report in the Financial Times on July 20, 2006, to appease the Sunnis, the U.S. yesterday said it had decided not to impose sanctions on Saudi Arabia over its policies towards religious practices and minorities following commitments by the kingdom to halt the dissemination of extremist ideology and to promote tolerance of non-Muslims.

John Hanford, ambassador-at-large for international religious freedom, was due to explain to Congress why the State Department would issue a waiver for Saudi Arabia under the Religious Freedom Act. Saudi Arabia was designated a “country of particular concern” under the act in 2004.

The Roles of Hezbollah and Al Qaeda

Hezbollah and al Qaeda are known to have cooperated in the past, but it doesn't appear they have worked together closely. The main reason for this is sectarian. Al-Qaeda is mostly made up of Sunni Muslims and Hezbollah is mostly Shiite Muslims. However, in spite of comments above, there is a recent trend for Sunnis and Shiites to cooperate against a common enemy, i.e., the United States and Israel, so don't be surprised if something more turns up. Hezbollah is trying to both destabilize Lebanon's anti-Syrian government and promote itself as a powerful, regional, revolutionary group. Hezbollah seeks influence beyond Lebanon.

According to Daniel Byman director of Georgetown University's Center for Peace and Security Studies writing in Foreign Affairs in the November/December 2003 issue: “In the U.S. demonology of terrorism, Osama bin Laden and al-Qaeda are relative newcomers. For most of the past two decades, Hezbollah has claimed pride of place as the top concern of U.S. counter terrorism officials. It was Hezbollah that pioneered the use of suicide bombing, and its record of attacks on the United States and its allies would make even bin Laden proud: the bombing of the U.S. marine barracks in Beirut in 1983 and the U.S. embassy there in 1983 and 1984; the hijacking of TWA flight 847 and murder of U.S. Navy diver Robert Stethem in 1985; a series of lethal attacks on Israeli targets in Lebanon; the bombing of the Israeli embassy in Argentina in 1992 and of a Buenos Aires Jewish community center in 1994. More recently, Hezbollah operatives have plotted to blow up the Israeli embassy in Thailand, and a Lebanese member of Hezbollah was indicted for helping to design the truck bomb that flattened the Khobar Towers U.S. military base in Saudi Arabia in 1996. As CIA director George Tenet testified earlier this year, “Hezbollah, as an organization with capability and worldwide presence, is [al Qaeda's] equal, if not a far more capable organization. I actually think they're a notch above in many respects.”“

Aside from al Qaeda, no terrorist group has killed more Americans than Hezbollah, which is bankrolled by Iran to the tune of at least $100 million a year. Hezbollah's main theaters of operation are Lebanon, its home country (where it killed hundreds of Americans during the 1980s), and the West Bank and Gaza, where it helps Palestinian rejectionists target Israel. But the group is active in the United States as well. Hezbollah is believed to have cells in at least 10 U.S. cities, according to an article in the Washington Times on May 24, 2005. It is interesting to note that Hezbollah operatives have sneeked into the U.S from Mexico. In March 2005, Mahmoud Kourani of Dearborn pleaded guilty to providing material support for Hezbollah. He will be sentenced next month. Kourani (whose brother is Hezbollah's chief of military security in southern Lebanon) is an illegal alien who sneaked into the United States from Mexico in February 2001. Federal authorities have repeatedly arrested suspected Hezbollah operatives for attempting to smuggle night-vision goggles and other military equipment to the organization. One suspect, arrested in 1998, skipped bail and fled to Lebanon before returning to the United States last year to face federal charges. In 2003, a federal court convicted a Hezbollah cell based in Charlotte, N.C., on charges of aiding Hezbollah by operating a cigarette-smuggling ring. The leader of that group, Mohammed Hammoud, received 155 years in prison.

Russia and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO)

Russia also has a stake in this conflict. Russia brought Iran into the SCO and was rewarded by being admitted as an observer into the Organization of Islamic Conference (OIC). Iran is also a major market for Russia and China—both members of the SCO. Both Russia and China are active in investment and weapon supply to Venezuela—a leading member of Mercosur. Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez said on July 14 that U.S. backing of Israel is responsible for flaming tensions in the Middle East and putting the world on course toward another “Holocaust.”

cont'd next post!!

Venezuela and Mecosur Flame the Fires of Conflict

“The fundamental blame falls again on the U.S. empire. It's the empire that armed and supported the abuses of the Israeli elite, which has invaded, abused and defied the United Nations for a long time,” Chávez said in a speech during a military act in Caracas.

It should be noted that Venezuela is a major oil suppler to the U.S. and through their Citgo, which is wholly-owned by Petróleos de Venezuela. On July 12, Venezuela's state-owned oil refining subsidiary in the U.S. is to halt petrol distribution to about 1,900 filling stations in the U.S., although the company denied on Wednesday the decision was motivated by tensions between Caracas and Washington.

Latin America accounts for 8.4 per cent of daily world oil output, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, but energy supplies from the region make up 30 per cent of U.S. energy imports, or about 4m barrels a day.

According to an article in the Financial Times on June 25, future supplies of oil from Latin America are at risk because of the spread of resource nationalism [The doctrine of the Petroleum Commons.], a study by the U.S. military that reflects growing concerns in the U.S. administration over energy security has found.

An internal report prepared by the U.S. military’s Southern Command and obtained by the Financial Times follows a recent U.S. congressional investigation that warned of the U.S.’s vulnerability to Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez’s repeated threats to “cut off” oil shipments to the U.S.

In an article in the Financial Times on July 24, Andy Webb-Vidal in Caracas reported that: Richard Lugar, chairman of the US Senate foreign relations committee, has urged the Bush administration to adopt specific “contingency plans” for a potential disruption to oil supplies from Venezuela.

In a letter sent to Condoleezza Rice, secretary of state, last Friday, a copy of which has been obtained by the Financial Times, Mr Lugar warned the US that it needed to “abandon” reliance on a “passive approach” to energy diplomacy.

Mr Lugar's warning follows the release last month of an investigation by the Government Accountability Office (GAO) which found that the US was ill-prepared for an oil embargo by Venezuela, the world's fifth largest exporter. President Hugo Chávez, whose government has been emboldened by a torrent of oil revenues, has several times warned that he would “cut off” oil supplies to the US if Washington persisted in allegedly plotting his overthrow.

“Venezuela's leverage over global oil prices and its direct supply lines and refining capacity in the US give Venezuela undue ability to impact US security and our economy,” Mr Lugar wrote in his letter to Ms Rice.

The GAO study, commissioned by Mr Lugar, a Republican, estimated that a Venezuelan oil boycott would raise oil prices by $11 (€9, £6) per barrel over a six-month period and reduce US economic output by $23bn.

Bernardo Alvarez, Venezuela's ambassador to the US, dismissed as “absurd” the GAO study's premise that Mr Chávez would purposefully shut off oil supplies, citing the economic impact it would have on his own country. Venezuela ships two-thirds of its oil to the US, or about 1.5m b/d and oil accounts for about 80 per cent of export revenue and half of fiscal revenue.

However it should be noted that Venezuela is currently constructing super tankers to move its oil to China.

Hugo Chávez, a cast of thousands of demonstrators and a guest appearance by Cuba's Fidel Castro made the July 20, 2006 summit of Mercosur, the South American trade pact, very different from those of the past. Normally a humdrum affair, full of dull deliberations about trade technicalities and pious hopes for a brighter, more integrated future, the presence of Venezuela's always-controversial leader in particular livened up proceedings.

Having dropped the suit and tie sported at the Mercosur presidential summit earlier on Friday in favour of his customary olive-green fatigues, the Cuban leader's anti-US rhetoric was rivalled - if not in length - by a fiery warm-up address from his admirer, Hugo Chávez of Venezuela.

Following formal accession this month, Venezuela is one of five full members of Mercosur, along with Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay. The bloc's area of influence now stretches from the Caribbean in the north to Patagonia in the south.

Indeed, both Argentina and Brazil formally encouraged Bolivia to become the sixth full member of the group, while Mexico's foreign minister, Ernesto Derbez, said he hoped Mexico would become an associate member of the group - along with Bolivia, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador and Peru - before Vicente Fox's presidency comes to an end in December.

On paper at least, Venezuelan membership ought to be good news, but for the U.S and the West, is it?

Together, the pact's five countries constitute what should become a single market of 250m people. Intra-regional trade, already recovering strongly from the financial crises of 1999 and 2001-2002, should get a fresh boost from Venezuela's vast oil wealth - and Mr. Chávez.

Venezuela, for example with Argentina, have also unveiled plans to jointly raise money on international markets, with a bond deal that Néstor Kirchner, Argentina's president, said could be “the first step in the construction of a multinational development bank, a financial space in the South”. See: Venezuela to put pep into Mercosur summit. One target of such a bank is to attack the hegemony of the U.S. dollar.

Hugo Chávez's appearance at the Mercosur summit in the Argentine city of Córdoba will be just the first stage of his most extensive global tour to date.

Over the next two weeks, the Venezuelan president will visit at least seven countries, mostly in Asia, plus, as he put it before his departure, “perhaps some in the Middle East and a few in Africa on the way”.

Officially, the former army officer says his oil-financed mission is to deliver a “message of peace” and to “save the world”.

But his journey will also entail a serious lobbying effort to secure diplomatic support for Venezuela's bid to secure a temporary seat on the United Nations Security Council that will be available soon.

cont'd next post!!

Venezuela and Egypt to Gain Seats on the United Nations Security Council

According to a report on Venezuela Analysis.com on July 19, 2006, Venezuela is being granted observer member status in the Arab League, which is also expected to support Venezuela’s bid for a UN Security Council seat. These two announcements coincide with the second Arab-South American Summit, which took place the week of July 19 in Caracas. These events of the recent weeks give further credibility of the Leftist/Marxist – Islamist Alliance and their control of world oil and other natural resources.

Under the shadow of an escalating war in the Middle East, the second Arab-South American Summit got underway in Caracas. Building on the first ever meeting a year ago in Brazil, delegations from fifteen Arab countries and twelve South American nations are gathering for two days to assess the progress of political, economics, cultural, environmental, and technological agreements reached in 2005. In addition, leaders attending the summit focused attention on the host country’s admission into the Arab league, the UN Security Council bids of Venezuela and Egypt, and the current crisis engulfing the Middle East.

In the first order of business, Venezuela was granted observer status in the Arab league. Membership will be formalized in September, when Venezuela joins its neighbor Brazil and several OPEC partners in the 22-nation group. More than 10 million people of Arab descent live in South America, most of them in Brazil.

President Chávez also secured Arab League support for Venezuela’s UN Security Council bid. “We expect 22 countries to support the (Venezuela) candidacy.” Stated Ahmed Benhelli, Secretary General of the Arab League of Nations. With Arab League assistance, Foreign Affairs Minister Alí Rodríguez Araque on Tuesday guaranteed Venezuela has obtained more than the 128 votes necessary to win a non-permanent seat at the Security Council, as a number of international organizations have already agreed to support Caracas, including the Caribbean Community and Common Market (Caricom) and the Common Market of the South (Mercosur). In return for Arab league backing, Egypt is seeking South American support in its Security Council bid.

This development comes on the heels of President Chávez’s harsh condemnation of recent Israeli attacks against Lebanon. On Sunday President Chávez bashed the “elite” in Israel, whom he accused of being aggressive at the behest of the United States. The incursions into Lebanon and Gaza were labeled “madness” by the President, as he went on to note Israel has nuclear weapons of mass destruction, “but nobody says anything because behind it is the empire” – a reference to the Bush Administration.

The official position of the Venezuelan government was released the day before when the Foreign Affairs Ministry issued a press release that stated, “The Bush Administration veto to impede the consideration of this crisis within the framework of the U.N. Security Council is unacceptable. The hegemony exercised over this body is the clearest denial of said organization as a space for reasonable settlement of conflicts. This is the reason why our country keeps firmly upholding the necessity of democratizing this body, and therefore endeavors for a seat on the Security Council.”

It should be noted that Russia as a result of control of large hydrocarbon reserves is a major economic power to contend with. Europe is beholden to gas supplies from Russia. Russia supports Iran—both in support of the Hezbollah and the nuclear program and as a weapon supplier to Latin America-Venezuela and Africa. Russia and China are the leading members of the SCO with Iran in an observer status. Russia also holds observer status in the Organization of Islamic Conference (OIC).

Russia and Iran Challenge OPEC – Russia Leaves the West?

Russia on the one hand is challenging OPEC for oil dominance and simultaneously challenging the hegemony of the U.S. dollar through the oil weapon. These actions merge in the form of Leftist/Marxist – Islamist Alliance. From the Russian perspective, the Saudi role and OPEC model have benefited the United States, which can pressure Saudi Arabia into opening the spigot to deal with supply emergencies; the U.S. also pressures other oil producers, such as Libya, Iraq, Iran, Venezuela, and Indonesia, by military methods, diplomacy, and economic sanctions. In the Russian alternative, the U.S. will be far less influential, and have fewer levers, commercial or military, to effect pressure on the energy suppliers. Russian arms and defense-industry partnerships are on offer to relatively weak, intervention-prone energy producers in Africa and Latin America to offset U.S. pressure.

A global movement toward the Russian model would greatly increase the impact of the oil weapon.

In the OPEC model, the benchmark is Brent crude, priced in U.S. dollars. In the Russian model, the discount and disadvantage between the Brent and Urals benchmarks will be reduced, and pricing will evolve toward a currency basket, including the ruble. According to the Moscow Times on May 16, a senior economic official said Monday that Russia would have a domestic petroleum exchange—an idea backed by President Vladimir Putin last week—up and running by year's end, but experts doubted whether oil would trade internationally in rubles anytime soon.

Deputy Economic Development and Trade Minister Kirill Androsov, who is also a Rosneft board director, said a domestic exchange for oil products would begin trading by the end of 2006 and an international exchange that would sell crude oil sometime in 2007, RIA-Novosti reported.

According to Iran News and Iranian Culture Journal of July 6, Iran will start the initial phase of its planned Iranian oil bourse at the end of September. An oil ministry official told that his ministry had already presented the relevant documents to the economic and finance ministry and the bourse organization. See also: Structural Changes – Destruction Of The U.S. Dollar.

In the OPEC model, suppliers hold much of their cash and government securities in U.S.-controlled institutions. In the Russian model, cash is held in the form of a currency basket; conversion from cash is sought into non-U.S. assets, particularly in the European market. In the Iran Oil Bourse oil trade would be Euro initally.

In the OPEC model, investment in new energy reserves should be open to, and may be controlled by, U.S. corporations and foreign government national oil companies. However, in most Islamic countries, private and foreign ownership is governed by Islamic Law (Shariah) laws.

According to the Topic Report: Access to Global Oil & Gas Reserves by Britt Dearman published January 23, 2006 Dearman is the originator and editor of Weekly Energy Perspective; IOC’s can participate to some extent in the upstream business in these countries, the bulk of the reserves ownership is dominated by countries with national oil companies (NOC’s). An estimated two-thirds of all global oil reserves are controlled by NOC’s. A large number of countries require that IOC’s partner with NOC’s in upstream developments or they allow IOC’s to provide only services. An internal Apache study estimates that IOC’s have full access to less than 10% of all of the world’s reserves.

IOC’s generally have strict investment guidelines. Limited access to upstream investment opportunities tends to increase competition among IOC’s, which reduces the return for the eventual winners. In addition, countries are extracting more from IOC’s and/or changing the rules. For example, Russia and Venezuela have collected back taxes from companies because of new tax law interpretations. They have also used the state’s power to acquire assets or to force more favorable terms for upstream activity.

The extraction of more money from oil companies is not limited to Russia and Venezuela. The U.K. raised the corporate tax rate on oil companies and some politicians in the U.S. are considering a windfall profits tax again. The timing for the U.K is remarkable because they became net importers of gas last year, thus making them partially dependent on Russian gas supply and are expected to become a net oil importer this year. The U.K. is taking away from oil company’s funds that could be reinvested to increase production and energy security in the country. Countries including Ecuador and Bolivia have also imposed new restrictions or nationalized the assets of the IOC’s.

Even the Democrat controlled State Legislature in California is attempting to pass laws that are hostile to the IOCs, including a plan to tax windfall profits and a proposal to regulate refineries as public utilities.

Some countries with NOC’s have different incentives than IOC’s such as security of supply. They have more at stake (e.g. - growing an entire economy) than earning a rate of return on its investment. NOC’s are also in a position to make different types of offers that IOC’s cannot match. For example, China NOC’s can work in countries that are off-limits to U.S. companies. China can also offer trade agreements and potential political support.

cont'd next post!!

The Role of the Petroleum Commons

IOC’s have the technology, the capital and the expertise needed to increase global production. The political actions of countries, state legislatures and potentially the actions of the Global Compact within the framework of the United Nations have done more to limit the availability of oil than any other factor.

Demand for natural gas is rising rapidly. Russia and Iran control 50 per cent of global reserves. For a comprehensive analysis of the role of Petroleum Commons influence on the International Oil Companies (IOCs) see: Islamic Economics and the Final Jihad – The Muslim Brotherhood to the Leftist/Marxist – Islamist Alliance. In the Russian model, national companies, state-controlled champions, or joint ventures in which Russian interests are in the majority should control strategic reserves. According to MOSCOW Reuters on July 16, Russian state oil firm Rosneft, which last week raised $10.4 billion (5.7 billion pounds) in the country's largest-ever IPO, said on Monday the government would control around 85 percent of its stock after the flotation.

Rosneft said in its final IPO prospectus the share of the Russian Federation would be 85.2 percent if the IPO's global coordinators do not exercise the over-allotment option, and 84.8 percent if they exercise it in full.

According to John Helmer writing in the Asia Times on July 18, in the U.S.-backed OPEC model, national suppliers depend on U.S.-controlled market intermediaries, traders, pipeline and shipping companies, and retail distributors for access to markets and point of sale. In the Russian model, in exchange for access to Russian energy supplies, there will be Russian state-controlled champions in energy transportation. Russian state-controlled corporations will also have investments and influence over trade and market retail networks.

The Russian model also extends to energy-convertible coal, uranium, and other mineral resources. Through negotiations for Russian accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO), the U.S., Australia, Canada and other resource-exporting states have sought to gain unlimited access to search and development of Russian mineable resources. The Russian model rejects this, and instead assigns priority and equity control of domestic resources to national resource companies. The model proposes tradeoffs and partnerships in resource exploitation in third countries, especially the developing states.

The U.S.-backed OPEC model assigns international priority to the Arab states. The Russian model assigns priority to the Central Asian alliance, including China, India, and Iran—all members of the SCO; secondarily to Latin America (Venezuela, Brazil—Mercosur); and ultimately Africa.

On this fundamental choice between the Russian and OPEC models, Russia is waiting to hear where South Africa stands. One thing is clear - South Africa's dependence on OPEC for its crude-oil imports has been growing. In 1996, 75% of South Africa's oil imports came from the Persian Gulf states, led by Iran. In 2003 - the latest year for which figures are available - this had grown to 78%. Saudi Arabia has also jumped ahead of Iran as the leading supplier. Nigeria is the leading African supplier of oil to South Africa, with 16% of total in 2003. Imports from Russia are possible, but have been negligible so far.

Sunni Terrorism Spreads East

The Sunnis are active in the terrorism war with bomb attacks on transportation infrastructure in London, Spain, and India. The Bangalesh and Pakistan links are also connected to the terrorist acts in India. Since the last few years, it came to light that ISI and various militant organizations based in Pakistan are using Bangladesh as a transit point for pushing terrorists into India. Indian security agencies have flight details and details of armed training camps in the neighboring country. With the tightening of security on the Pakistan border, export of terror from Bangladesh has become a reality, and the extension of the terror network to other parts of the country is a potential threat to India’s security.

The Washington-DC based human rights group, International Christian Concern (ICC) www.persecution.org has learned that Bangladesh's ruling party (the BNP) is becoming ideologically allied with fundamentalist Islamic elements within the country and is maneuvering to steal the upcoming election. If this effort succeeds it will have disastrous results for democracy and for Christians alike.

ICC is especially concerned that the inclusion of Islamic fundamentalist parties in the government threatens to undermine this country's democratic process and commitment to human rights, especially religious freedom. It is extremely disconcerting that the current ruling party's senior joint secretary-general recently proclaimed at a Jamaat meeting that, “We are members of the same family.”

If the BNP is truly in bed with Islamic fundamentalists, it is no wonder that Islamic militants have been so successful in carrying out terrorist attacks in recent months. Within the past year more than 30 have died and 150 have been wounded in terrorist attacks by Muslim extremists, including two Christian health workers who were hacked to death on July 29, 2005.

The Apocalyptic Teaching of Islam

The totalitarian temptation remains powerfully in place. Muslims across the world are drawn by the apocalyptic teachings of Islam with its slogan “Islam is the solution.” That was the case from Iran in 1979 to Algeria in 1992 to Turkey in 2002, to the Paris riots in 2005 to the actions of the Hezbollah and Hamas in recent weeks.

Conclusion

The world stands today at the precipice dividing the eras of the post-Cold War which we have know since 1989–one of expanding democracy and free markets–and a new world order which is unknown and certainly a much less prosperous and friendly place. The Leftist/Marxist - Islamist Alliance through joining together a global cabal of nations for the control of the world’s energy infrastructure, finance, media and transportation assets present a real and current danger to the West. The cost of defending a policy of Energy Interdependence as a cornerstone of foreign policy is huge in terms of potential loss of lives and impact on our economy. The West and particularly America cannot maintain our economy by assuming that the developing world along with the “recycle” of oil wealth will continue to provide a market for debt and our energy resources without extracting the huge price of our security, freedom and liberty. Spreading democracy requires us to take responsibility for our financing and energy needs. A program leading to Energy Independence is both feasible and desirable. The risk is failing to act now to make the world a safer and environmentally sustainable place for our children to grow up.

Iran, Lebanon, Russia, and India—It is about Power and Oil (http://globalpolitician.com/articles.asp?ID=1981&print=true)

Cold War deja vu in Kosovo

Russia and the U.S. are on opposing sides of the dispute between Serbs and ethnic Albanians.

By Tracy Wilkinson, Los Angeles Times Staff Writer
December 6, 2007

KOSOVSKA MITROVICA, SERBIA -- Stand on the blue neon bridge over the Ibar River here and straddle the frontline of today's Cold War.

To the south is Kosovo, an ethnic Albanian province propped up and championed by the United States. To the north is Serbia, a state that looks solidly to Russia for support and protection.

Kosovo's quest for independence from Serbia is one of several issues (Iran is another) that have brought the U.S. and Russia into opposition in ways not seen for many years. And so far, Moscow has managed to seize the initiative here and thwart Washington's plans.

Nine months ago, Kosovo's independence seemed inevitable and imminent. Instead, talks dragged on until last week, and the breakaway republic's status remains unsettled, its resolution delayed at least until next year. The deadlock threatens regional stability, many officials warn.

That Russia has been able to undermine U.S. intentions owes to the rising influence of President Vladimir V. Putin and the reluctance of numerous European governments, dependent on Russian oil and gas, to challenge Moscow, analysts say.

Russian support has emboldened the Serbian government in a manner that could hinder democratic reforms.

Russia and Serbia have been allies for generations, thanks in part to their common history, Slavic language and Orthodox Christian faith. But that alliance, in the Serbian government's view, often was more lip-service than real support. Russia, for example, did not block United Nations sanctions imposed in 1992 on what was then Yugoslavia as it suppressed rebellions in Bosnia-Herzegovina and Croatia.

Kosovo, with its ethnic Albanian majority, has proved a different cause, however.

"Today, when Serbia is at a certain crossroads, she certainly counts on Russia understanding her position," Serbian President Boris Tadic said as his nation began lobbying for Moscow's support on Kosovo several months ago. "Russia is one of the pillars of our foreign policy."

In 1999, to a weakened Russia's chagrin, U.S.-led forces of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization bombed Serbian troops out of Kosovo. The province has been governed by the United Nations since, with the West supporting its bid for statehood.

Moscow says it is especially concerned about Kosovo because of the precedent it says independence would set for separatist movements closer to home, such as in the Russian republic of Chechnya. Maintaining territorial integrity, along with strengthening the state, have been cornerstones of the Putin administration.

The fervor of Russia's support surprised even some Serbian officials and has pushed the government in Belgrade to harden its positions, making compromise virtually impossible. This week, for the first time a member of Serbian Prime Minister Vojislav Kostunica's inner circle, Aleksandar Simic, raised the prospect of warfare as a legitimate option to be considered by the government.

With U.S. encouragement, the Kosovo Albanians long ago hardened their bottom line. But they were willing to accept a U.N. plan of "supervised independence." Belgrade rejected the proposal, saying independence was like pregnancy: either you are or you're not.

So instead of agreement, it now seems probable that the Kosovo Albanian government will at some point in the next few months declare independence unilaterally, having been assured that key states, starting with the United States, will quickly recognize its new status.

If that happened, Belgrade probably would argue that such independence is illegal and not permanent, since it does not bear the imprimatur of the U.N. Security Council. And Putin's intervention has seen to it that the matter would not go before the council because of Russia's veto power.

Backing Belgrade and undercutting the West has allowed Moscow to reassert its regional authority and regain much of the influence it lost with the humiliating NATO intervention in Kosovo, especially in Europe, analysts say. Weakening transatlantic solidarity was a time-honored Cold War-era strategy.

For Serbia's leaders, Russian support is good for domestic consumption, especially before the presidential election to be held in the first part of next year.

"It's safe politics for them," said Cedomir Antic, a historian with the Institute for Balkan Studies in Belgrade. "They are trying to stay in power, be on good terms with world powers, and protect the interests of the Serbian nation."

Among Kosovo's Albanians, there is a sense that they should have moved to independence a year or two ago, before Putin had a chance to seize the issue.

"Maybe our mistake was not settling this earlier," said Shpend Ahmeti of the Institute for Advanced Studies in Pristina, the Albanian-controlled capital of Kosovo.

This Russian-American Cold War-redux is etched on the ground here.

On one side, few places on Earth are more pro-United States than Kosovo. A boulevard in Pristina is named after Bill Clinton, a larger-than-life poster of him waving to passersby. Pictures of President Bush graced campaign promos in this month's provincial election. U.S. flags flutter everywhere.

Stepping right over the border, however, it all changes. And here in Kosovska Mitrovica, the dividing line is several miles inside Kosovo because the northern half of the city is still controlled by Serbs, which will further complicate any separation.

An enormous monument at the Ibar River bridge, staring from the Serb-controlled side to the Albanian-controlled part of the province, pays tribute to the Serbs killed by NATO bombings and the Albanian "terrorists and criminals" of Kosovo.

Cold War deja vu in Kosovo (http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/world/la-fg-coldwar6dec06,1,2253829.story?coll=la-headlines-world&ctrack=1&cset=true)

Now I don't know much about this site........
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Did Russia Fool U.S. Intelligence on Iraq, Iran and Syrian WMD?

According to the Intelligence Summit, Saddam's secret archives prove he really did have WMD and the Russians helped him hide them in Syria. The Russian cover-up is beginning to collapse, the group says. Israel bombed Saddam's WMD storehouse in Syria on Sept. 6, 2007. The Intelligence Summit, a non patisan NGO, details the deadly documents that Saddam and the Russians tried to hide.

Washington, DC (PRWEB) December 7, 2007 -- On Wednesday evening, Dec.12, 2007, John Loftus, President of the non-partisan Intelligence Summit, will address the McLendon Group of the National Press Club in Washington DC. Loftus will review documents recently discovered in Saddam's secret archives as well as satellite photos that may resolve (or at least reopen) the debate about missing Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD) in the Middle East. An Executive Summary at www.IntelligenceSummit.org explains how the Iraqi archives consistently document that Saddam really did have WMD projects (including A-bomb research) late into 2002. According to the Intelligence Summit, on the eve of war in 2003, Russian Special Forces evacuated Saddam's WMD material across the border to a secret storage area in Dayr as Zorr (Deir al Zour), Syria.

It is no coincidence, Loftus says, that on September 6, 2007, this same area, Dayr as Zorr, Syria, was bombed by the Israel Defense Forces. A detailed research paper at www.LoftusReport.com, argues that it was not a Syrian nuclear reactor that was destroyed, but a radiological weapons factory built on the same site as Saddam's secret storehouse for WMD. Israeli sources allege that the North Koreans were helping Syria mix highly enriched uranium (HEU) from Iraq with North Korean plutonium to make super-toxic dirty bombs. Given Syria's close alliance with Iran, it seems quite plausible that Syria has served as a secret nuclear weapons storage site for both Iraq and Iran, says Loftus. It is possible, indeed likely, that the recent National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) on Iran was tainted by the same Russian disinformation that successfully concealed the Iraqi WMD from discovery for so long, he said

Loftus says confirmation of a massive disinformation campaign has come from an unlikely source: retired agents of the Russian Military Intelligence service, the GRU. He says Russian smear propaganda specifically targeted Michael Cherney, an Israeli billionaire who was the largest single financial supporter of the Summit's WMD research into Iraq, Iran and Syria. Loftus said the National Director of Intelligence (NDI) blacklisted the Intelligence Summit from receiving federal funding because it accepted donations from Michael Cherney, whom the NDI allegedly falsely accused of being "a leader of the Russian Mafia under active investigation for money laundering."

To the chagrin of the NDI, Israeli police have just arrested four people, who were caught with documents and emails proving that they were hired to bribe journalists and politicians into making false accusations against Michael Cherney, says Loftus. The effect of this Russian smear campaign was to trick the NDI into discrediting Michael Cherney, the Intelligence Summit and all of its WMD research into Iraq, Iran and Syria. Loftus says that hiding these interconnected WMD programs may have been the most effective disinformation operation conducted in modern times. The Russian government denies any official connection, and says these retired agents were rogue operatives on the payroll of a business competitor who was trying to get out of paying a five billion dollar debt to Cherney, and were not working for the GRU.

Did Russia Fool U.S. Intelligence on Iraq, Iran and Syrian WMD? (http://www.prweb.com/releases/2007/12/prweb575010.htm)

Russian Warships To Dock In Syria
Middle-East

In an effort to expand its military presence in the international arena and reestablish a naval presence in the Middle East, Russia has dispatched a naval fleet to the region, including a guided missile cruiser, two anti submarine ships and 47 fighter planes. The fleet will dock at the Syrian port of Tartus where Russia maintains a technical base. At the same port, Iranian ships are also docked.

Russian Defense Minister Anatoly Serdyukov told reporters that the expedition "is aimed at ensuring a naval presence and establishing conditions to secure Russian navigations." Serdyukov added that the fleet will conduct tactical exercises with real and simulated launches of sea and air based missiles and intends to call at a number of different ports in the region.

In the past, Russian President Vladimir Putin stressed that Russia would respond in the event Iran was attacked by a foreign power. Boosting Russia's naval presence in the area could well be an attempt to signal to Israel and possibly America that if Iran is attacked, Russia will strike back.

The Russian President has stressed on numerous occasions that he strives to become more involved in the Middle East, including the Israeli Palestinian conflict.

Whether such a large Russian presence docked at the Syrian port, will hamper Israeli navy operations or intelligence gathering missions remains to be seen.12/.06/07

Russian Warships To Dock In Syria (http://www.infolive.tv/en/infolive.tv-15118-israelnews-russian-warships-dock-syria)
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

I can't even imagine what the IDF thinks of this today.

Gog is getting more aggressive everyday, she certainly is flexing its muscles!! With the reports coming out daily, war exercises, flying into airspace, the so called elections, supporting and helping Iran and now this. So much for people thinking Russia isn't a threat.

Matthew 24:6 And you will hear of wars and rumors of wars; see that you are not frightened or troubled, for this must take place, but the end is not yet.

Ezekiel 38:18 But in that day when Gog shall come against the land of Israel, says the Lord God, My wrath shall come up into My nostrils.

Iran accuses US of nuclear espionage, demands explanation
Associated Press
THE JERUSALEM POST
Dec. 8, 2007

Iran has sent a formal protest note to Washington for "spying" on Iran's nuclear activities, Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki said Saturday in the wake of the latest US report on the alleged Iranian weapons program.

Mottaki said the American report earlier this week concluding that Teheran halted atomic weapons development in 2003 and hasn't resumed it since indicated US intelligence agencies based their findings on "satellite and espionage activities," according to official IRNA news agency.

IRNA said the note was handed over to the Swiss Embassy in Teheran, which looks after US interests in Iran in the absence of diplomatic relations between Teheran and Washington.

"The day the report was issued, the Foreign Ministry submitted a formal note of protest to the Swiss Embassy and demanded explanations over (America's) espionage activities taking place (on Iran's nuclear program)," Mottaki was quoted as saying.

The US report, released Monday, was a sharp turnaround from a previous intelligence assessment in 2005.

Iran has touted the report as a vindication of its claim that its nuclear program is only peaceful. Iranian officials insist Washington should take a less hawkish stance and drop attempts to impose new UN sanctions in light of the report's conclusions.

Mottaki said 70 percent of the US report was "true and positive," but denied its allegations of Iran having had a nuclear weapons program before 2003, according to footage provided by AP Television News.

"The remaining 30%, in which they claim that Iran had a nuclear weapons program before 2003 is wrong," Mottaki said. "They refused to confess about this thirty percent because they did not want to lose all their reputation."

Mohamed ElBaradei, head of the UN nuclear watchdog agency, called the report a "sigh of relief" because its conclusions also jibe with his agency's own findings.

The United States and some of its allies accuse Iran of seeking to develop nuclear weapons - a claim denied by Iran, which says its nuclear program aims only to generate electricity.

Iran has already been slapped with two rounds UN Security Council sanctions over its refusal to halt uranium enrichment, a process that can produce either fuel for a reactor or a nuclear warhead.

Mottaki said the US intelligence report contained both "correct and incorrect" information.

He didn't elaborate which parts of the report were in his perception wrong, but claimed it was prepared in early 2007, only to be blocked from release earlier by political bickering in the United States.

"The US intelligence agencies report had been prepared at the beginning of the year, but political disputes between the warmongering faction and their opponents delayed its release," Mottaki said.

Mottaki was also quoted Saturday as saying US President George W. Bush was "lying" when he said he was informed of the report recently.

"Remarks by Bush that he was informed of the report recently shows that he is lying and has a short memory," Mottaki said.

Mottaki added that in the wake of the report, Iran rules out any US military action against Iran for its refusal to halt uranium enrichment is ruled out.

"We rule out the option of military strike against Iran after the release of this report," the minister was quoted as saying.

Iran accuses US of nuclear espionage, demands explanation (http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?cid=1196847282808&pagename=JPost%2FJPArticle%2FPrinter)

Russia reportedly test-fires ballistic missile
Sat 8 Dec 2007, 18:16 GMT

MOSCOW (Reuters) - Russia on Saturday test-fired a inter-continental missile with new equipment able to pierce anti-missile shields, state news agency RIA said, underscoring Moscow's determination to assert its military might.

The RS-12M Topol ballistic missile, called the SS-25 Sickle by NATO, was successfully launched at 17:43 p.m. (2:43 p.m. British time) from Kapustin Yar firing range in southern Russia, RIA said, citing a spokesman for rocket forces.

"The launch was carried out with the aim of confirming the stability of the fundamental flying and technical characteristics of this class of missile," Rocket Forces spokesman Alexander Vovk told RIA.

He said the test was part of a trial of unspecified new equipment that could pierce anti-missile shields. Russian generals say the country is working on weapons that would pierce any shield the United States could make.

Saturday's launch of the revamped missile comes amid U.S. plans for a missile defence shield in Europe, which Russian President Vladimir Putin has said would threaten Russian interests.

Putin signed a law last week suspending Russia's participation in the Conventional Forces in Europe (CFE) Treaty in a step which could allow it to deploy more forces close to western Europe. The move comes into force on December 12-13.

As configured in 1985, the Topol has a maximum range of 10,000 km (6,215 miles), and can carry one 550-kiloton nuclear warhead. The 20.5 metre (67 ft) long missile was designed in the 1970s and made its first flights in 1982.

The last launch of a Topol missile took place on October 18.

Buoyed by huge oil revenues, Russia under Putin has been boosting military spending while at the same time using diplomacy to broaden Moscow's influence.

This week, Russia said it would start the first major navy sortie into the Mediterranean since Soviet times. Eleven ships, including an aircraft carrier, will take part in the sortie and be backed up by 47 aircraft -- including strategic bombers.

Russia reportedly test-fires ballistic missile (http://africa.reuters.com/world/news/usnL0894291.html)

Gulf States Accept U.S. Defense from Iran
December 08 2007

(IsraelNN.com) The small Gulf states are afraid of Iran and have agreed to let the United States place Patriot air-defense missiles on their territory, according to Channel 10 TV news.

The channel's Arab affairs reporter said the situation in the Gulf has become very tense recently.

Gulf States Accept U.S. Defense from Iran (http://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/Flash.aspx/137840)
~~~~~~~~~~~

Gates calls for air and missile defense umbrella in Gulf
Dec 7 04:44 PM US/Eastern

US Defense Secretary Robert Gates Friday called for an "air and missile defense umbrella" over the Gulf region to deter missile attacks by Iran.

Gates told Al Hurra television -- a US funded Arabic language satellite television network -- that Iran could resume its nuclear weapons program "at a whim or a moment's notice" despite a new intelligence finding that Tehran halted a secret program in 2003.

"So I think it's very important to keep the pressure on and get Tehran to abjure a nuclear weapon in the future, and to bring their enrichment program under control," Gates said, according to a transcript of the interview.

Gates, who is in Bahrain for a regional security conference, said the United States enjoyed strong military relations with most of the Gulf states.

He said they should "cooperate multilaterally in establishing an air and missile defense umbrella over this region that would deter a country like Iran from threatening to use missiles."

The United States has begun discussions with countries in the region "about things such as a shared early warning, maritime surveillance, and things like that," he said.

The Pentagon this week announced proposed sales of Patriot missile defense and early warning systems to the United Arab Emirates and Kuwait worth more than 10 billion dollars.

On Friday, it notified Congress of a possible sale to Saudi Arabia of upgraded AWACS airborne early warning systems worth another 400 million dollars.

Gates calls for air and missile defense umbrella in Gulf (http://www.breitbart.com/article.php?id=071207214411.obh7pb1g&show_article=1&catnum=3)

Putin's power raises alarm bells
Sat, December 8, 2007
By ED FEUER

In parliamentary elections widely described as neither free, fair nor democratic, it's clear Russian President Vladimir Putin is rapidly taking his country backward.

George Bush said he looked into Putin's eyes and saw his soul but John McCain's take is more accurate: "When I look into his eyes, I see three letters: KGB." His alarming suppression of dissent and control of the media fuels his growing authoritarian rule.

Although Putin faces a constitutional ban on three consecutive presidential terms, the personality cult being promoted shows he won't be soon following Mikhail Gorbachev on the Western lecture circuit. He will undoubtedly find some way to continue his rule in some form.

High-priced oil and gas exports have freed Putin from the need for good behaviour to impress foreign investors and the International Monetary Fund. And Putin, unfortunately, seems to think Russia cannot be a great nation unless it makes great mischief.

He has picked fights with the Americans and the West including such issues as Kosovo, suspending a treaty on conventional forces in Europe, the missile shield against rogue states, selling arms to Iran and Syria and blocking tough action against Sudan's murderous policies in Darfur.

Hypocritically professing disdain for effective sanctions in favour of diplomacy to thwart Iran's nuclear program, Putin applies trade and energy sanctions against tiny Georgia with which he has disputes.

And his assertion of claims to the oil and mineral-rich Arctic Ocean are of particular concern to Canada.

Eastern European nations, whose freedom was so applauded by Canada, are justifiably worried. Their departure from the Russian empire and the example of genuine democracy they provide Russians are anathema to Putin.

But the law of unintended consequences comes into play. When Europe thought the Soviet threat had evaporated and the American umbrella was no longer needed, some ugly anti-Americanism crawled out of the woodwork. With Russia reverting to Soviet type, many Europeans are rediscovering the U.S.A. isn't so bad after all.

That awareness should help keep Putin and company in check.

Putin's power raises alarm bells (http://winnipegsun.com/Comment/Editorial/2007/12/08/4713852.html)

China-Russia military cooperation
December 6, 2007

After the fall of the erstwhile Soviet Union, U.S.A emerged as the sole superpower of the world. With depleted economic and military power, Russia was not in a position to challenge the newly acquired supremacy of America. Like any other prudent and ambitious superpower, America took the advantage of imbalance of power in the international arena and made elaborate plan to make foray into the news areas of interest and consolidate the existing strongholds to expand its sphere of influence. It focused on East European nations and the former Soviet Republics. Though much smaller and weaker in size and power, Russia was still a significant country having the power to alter the balance of power in the region. Knowing this fact, America moved quickly to forge deep economic and military relations with the former WARSAW pact nations and Soviet Republics. Another objective of America's quick move to forge strategic level relations with the former Soviet satellite nations was to de-nuclearise them and utilize the enormous energy reserve of the central Asian nations.

Russia, in the mean time, was trying to cope with the new situation emerged due to adopting capitalism and democracy as the system of government. But the strategic thinkers of the country were aware of the American strategic game plan near the Russian border and East Europe. They soon advanced to China for help. China, on the other hand, with over 1 billion people was finding avenues to elevate itself to the level of a superpower. So, the Chinese leaders viewed the Russian offer for deeper military and economic relations favourably. The two countries signed various economic and military agreements in the meantime. Russia found a willing partner, which was also looking for gaining power to offset the American influence in East Europe, and particularly in central Asia, Korean peninsula, and China Sea. The cooperation between the two giants commenced in a majestic fashion to counter, according to them, American hegemony.

China needed new and more modern training and technology to upgrade various units of its military. Observing closely the gulf war, China realized the need for a smaller, faster and more flexible military to win a regional war. So, they sought to replace the old military thinking with a new and more sophisticated one. They proceeded to buy modern jet fighters from the Russian air force to replace its ageing fleets of F-7s and A-5s. With a view to modernize the air force they procured SU-27, SU-30, and ordered for SU-34 ground attack bombers from Russia. It won't be irrelevant to mention that Russia needed these big-ticket orders to sustain its own military industry. So, the agreements were signed pretty quickly. China got these planes along with production facilities. The Russian experts trained the Chinese technicians and pilots to operate these highly sophisticated jet fighters.

China and Russia expanded their cooperation in naval sector too. Chinese dilapidated Luhu and Jiangwei class frigates were completely unsuitable for a navy that aspired to be a blue water navy within a few decades. So, they ordered for highly advanced nuclear missile guided Sovremenny class destroyers. They bought a few units to bolster its navy. The area of naval cooperation was further expanded to modernize Chinese antiquated submarine fleets. China procured quite a few Kilo class diesel electric submarines armed with lethal torpedoes. They also proceeded to upgrade the existing Song and Ming class submarines with borrowed French electronic equipments and combat management systems.

Due to geo-strategic reasons, China could hardly overlook the need of the ground forces. They advanced to the Russians for modern technologies to produce better APCs(Armoured Personnel Carriers), Tanks, MBRLs(Multi barrel Rocket Launchers), IFVs(Infantry Fighting Vehicles), and air defense systems. Russia proved to be a willing partner up to this point and did not hesitate to sell military hardware as per Chinese demand.

But historically, the relationship between China and Russia saw many ups and downs. The erstwhile Soviet Union forcefully occupied millions of kilometers of land from China in the past. They fought a bitter division level war in 1969 over disputed land along the Sino-Soviet borders. Though they have signed border agreements in 1991 and 2004 to resolve the land disputes amicably, a sizeable portion of the border is still not properly demarcated. Keeping in view of this fact, the Russians are not interested to see a China powerful enough to alter the balance of power in the region. The recent anti satellite missile test by China rang an alarm bell in Russia too. America was pretty vocal against such missile test, Russia, on the other hand, doubted the intention of the Chinese military modernization. The Russian strategic planners want a submissive partner in the strategic game against America that they will be able to use as a pawn to counter America. China, on the other hand, wants to emerge as an independent superpower to grab its share in the international political arena. A clear conflict of interest has surfaced that may impede the ongoing military cooperation between the two giant neighbours. Besides, Russia also has to take into account the concerns of America. In the recent time, the American policymakers have adopted an aggressive strategic policy to calm down Russia, which is selling arms to anti-American nations to expand its sphere of influence and make healthy profit to sustain and modernize its defense industry.

It can be noted that the Bush administration has taken a bold strategic initiative to install missile defense systems in some European and central Asian countries. The Russian military experts view this move as detrimental to the nation's security and an element with potential to alter the balance of power in the world.

Due to the above reasons, we have seen reluctance in the Russia government to provide more modern military hardware to China. One more thing that needs attention is that, China is aggressively pursuing its own plan to build a modern self-reliant defense industry that requires technology from a trusted source. It just doesn't want to be a mere purchaser of high tech military weapons any more. It wants unprecedented level of access to Russian most modern military technology. But how far the Russians will be willing to entertain Chinese wishes will remain to be seen.

China-Russia military cooperation (http://nation.ittefaq.com/issues/2007/12/06/news0909.htm)

Moscow pushing for follow-up Mideast peace summit in April
By Barak Ravid, Haaretz Correspondent
11/12/2007

The United States supports the holding of a second peace conference in Moscow that would address Israel's conflicts with Syria and Lebanon as well as the Palestinian issue, according to information obtained by the Foreign Ministry from Russian sources in recent days.

Nevertheless, government sources in Jerusalem said they have some doubts about the Russian claim, as they have received contradictory reports from Washington. They added that they expect the situation to become clearer at next week's meeting of donor nations to the Palestinian Authority, as representatives of the Quartet of Middle East peacemakers - the U.S., European Union, United Nations and Russia - will meet on the sidelines to discuss whether to hold a Moscow conference and if so, when and in what format.

According to the Foreign Ministry's information, obtained from conversations with Russian diplomats in both Moscow and UN headquarters in New York, the conference would probably take place in April 2008 and would be at the level of foreign ministers.

Last month's Middle East peace summit, held in Annapolis, Maryland, focused almost exclusively on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, and Russia had expressed interest in hosting a follow-up event that would broaden the agenda. Thus far, no member of the Quartet has publicly voiced opposition to Russia's proposal.

The Russian diplomats assured their Israeli counterparts that the proposed Moscow event, like Annapolis, would be billed as a "meeting" rather than a "conference." They also said that its purpose would not be to finalize agreements, but merely to move the Middle East peace process forward.

According to the information reaching Jerusalem, the Russians would like to divide the event into two sessions. The first would be devoted to assessing the progress of bilateral negotiations between Israel and the Palestinian Authority, while the second would deal with the issue of a comprehensive regional peace, with particular emphasis on resumption of negotiations between Israel and Syria, and the launching of Israeli-Lebanese talks.

According to the Russians, U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice approves of both the proposed Moscow meeting and the idea of restarting Israeli-Syrian talks.

Jerusalem also supports plan

The Russians' impression is that Israel, too, looks favorably on both the meeting and the Syrian focus. Last Wednesday, Prime Minister Ehud Olmert spoke with Russian President Vladimir Putin, and the two discussed the idea.

Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni, who heads the Israeli team negotiating with the PA, met with her Palestinian counterpart, Ahmed Qureia, on Monday in order to finalize the agenda for a meeting of the full negotiating teams, which is slated to take place Tuesday in Jerusalem. "The first meeting of the negotiating teams will deal mainly with procedure and technical arrangements," said an Israeli government source.

PA threatens to boycott

But Palestinian sources threatened Monday that the PA would boycott the session if Israel did not stop construction of 307 apartments in the East Jerusalem neighborhood of Har Homa.

In addition, the diplomatic-security cabinet will meet tomorrow to discuss the situation in the Gaza Strip. Various defense agencies will present reviews of the situation, and a senior government official said the main focus will be on the defense establishment's views about launching a major military operation against Hamas and other terrorist organizations in Gaza.

"The last [security] cabinet meeting dealt with civilian sanctions, because then, the defense establishment said that it did not support a large military operation in Gaza," the official said. "Since then, there has been a shift in its position, and therefore, cabinet ministers need to hear about this first-hand."

Moscow pushing for follow-up Mideast peace summit in April (http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/933221.html)

Medvedev: Putin should be prime minister

By MIKE ECKEL, Associated Press Writer 1 hour, 20 minutes ago

MOSCOW - The man tapped by President Vladimir Putin as his successor called Tuesday for the popular president to return as prime minister after the March 2 election — a shuffling of Kremlin duties that would keep the main levers of power in Putin's hands.

The brief announcement by Dmitry Medvedev, almost certainly approved in advance by Putin, was the second major development from the Kremlin in as many days. On Monday, Putin endorsed Medvedev for president.

In this way, Putin and his longtime aide appear to answer a question that has long been the subject of conjecture and anxiety: whether the two-term president would relinquish power, and if so to whom.

The emerging scenario — one that Putin himself hinted at months ago — would see the popular president wielding considerable and possibly ultimate power from a beefed-up prime minister's position. Putin, who took over from Boris Yeltsin about eight years ago, is barred by the constitution from a third consecutive term.

In a three-minute televised speech, Medvedev said Putin "prevented the collapse of the economy and social sphere in our country, a course that prevented civil war."

It was vital to retain Putin's team, he said.

"Therefore, I think that is principally important for our country that we keep in the most important post in government — the position of chairman of the Russian government — Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin," he said.

"Having expressed my readiness to run for president of Russia, I appeal to him with a request to give his principal agreement to head the Russian government after the election of the new president of our country," Medvedev said.

Putin clearly wants to retain a powerful role once he steps down. Medvedev's proposal would provide such a role, especially if the constitution is amended to increase the prime minister's powers — which could be done readily with the new parliament dominated by pro-Putin politicians.

Putin's support virtually ensures that Medvedev would win the presidency, and Putin's enormous influence with parliament, where his party controls 70 percent of the seats, ensures he could become prime minister if he chose.

At a Kremlin meeting with Yevgeny Primakov, an influential Yeltsin-era prime minister who now heads the Russian Chamber of Commerce, Putin made no reference to his anointed successor or the possibility of becoming prime minister.

Medvedev's announcement suggested that he would essentially serve as a figurehead controlled by Putin.

The 42-year-old lawyer from St. Petersburg projects a milder and more sympathetic image than the steely and occasionally bitingly sarcastic Putin. Medvedev's comments Tuesday, though, echoed Putin's often-expressed national pride and distrust of the West.

"The world's attitudes toward Russia have been changed," Medvedev said. "They don't lecture us like schoolchildren. They respect us and they reckon with us. Russia has been returned to its overpowering position in the world community."

Medvedev, currently a first deputy prime minister, also praised efforts under Putin to restore Russia's armed forces after years of post-Soviet neglect and underfunding.

"Our military defense and security have been increased," he said.

Unlike some of his powerful colleagues in the Kremlin, Medvedev is not a veteran of the KGB or other Russian security services. He has never run for elected office, and has spent most of his working life as Putin's aide.

While the Kremlin has packaged Medvedev as a liberal, giving him responsibility for social programs, Medvedev's political views are unknown. He is best known as a technocrat proficient at finding creative ways to implement Putin's policies.

As president, Medvedev's duties would include directing the work of the chiefs of the Federal Security Service, and the Federal Drug Control Service. But both agencies are headed by powerful KGB veterans — Nikolai Patrushev and Viktor Cherkesov, respectively — with close ties to Putin.

With no power base of his own, Medvedev could have found it difficult to direct these figures. Putin will have no such problem.

Medvedev: Putin should be prime minister (http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20071211/ap_on_re_eu/russia_putin;_ylt=Ai83c6618BZP5B7iTmmI6Ius0NUE)

Putin urged to lead government after Kremlin

by Sebastian Smith 1 hour, 20 minutes ago

MOSCOW (AFP) - Months of uncertainty over Russia's future power structure ended Tuesday when President Vladimir's handpicked successor, Dmitry Medvedev, said Putin should become prime minister on quitting the Kremlin.

Medvedev, the soft-spoken technocrat endorsed by Putin to succeed him as Russian president, said Putin, 55, should switch to become head of the government after stepping down.

"I consider it of utmost importance for our country to keep Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin in the highest post of executive power, the post of head of government of the Russian Federation," Medvedev said in an address on national television.

The stunning statement meant that Russia in the space of 24 hours appeared to have resolved the two biggest questions facing the country: who will win the March 2 presidential election to replace Putin, and what Putin will do on leaving office.

Putin's endorsement on Monday makes Medvedev, a 42-year-old trained lawyer and first deputy premier, all but certain to win an election in which there are no other heavyweight candidates.

Medvedev's call means Putin -- who has long said he wanted to retain an important role after leaving the Kremlin -- will likely from next year become a powerful premier.

Putin did not give his immediate reaction and no timeframe was suggested for the switch.

However the speech, in which Medvedev wore a blue suit and sat flanked by the Russian tricolor flag and an ornamental Russian crest, was clearly meant to imply that the proposal was official policy.

"If Medvedev announced it, then the likelihood is that it will take place," Kremlin-connected analyst Vyacheslav Nikonov told the Interfax news agency.

The world has been kept waiting for months to know who will replace Putin at the head of the nuclear missile power and world's biggest energy exporter.

No major political figures have expressed an ambition to run for president in 2008. Even Medvedev had been silent on the issue until his surprise endorsement on Monday.

The sudden rise of Medvedev, seen as a relative liberal in the hawkish Kremlin, was welcomed by Germany's Chancellor Angela Merkel.

She told Putin by phone that "Medvedev brings experience in government and business and that she assumes she would be able to work well with him if he is elected," a spokeswoman for Merkel said.

Medvedev emphasised that the goal was to maintain "continuity" to the policies of Putin, who is required by the constitution to step down at the end of his second four-year term.

Few analysts believe that Putin, who has steadily concentrated power in his hands during his eight years in the Kremlin, is ready to retire.

Earlier this month his United Russia party won a landslide victory in parliamentary elections framed here as a referendum on Putin's rule, and criticised in the West as rigged.

"Everyone understands perfectly well that Putin wants to remain in power," said Yevgeny Volk, political analyst at the Moscow office of the conservative US think-tank Heritage Foundation.

It remains unclear how much authority Putin could exercise as prime minister, which under the constitution is a markedly lower rank than president.

But analysts describe Medvedev as a politically weak figure with unswerving loyalty to Putin.

As first deputy prime minister, Medvedev has for the past two years been in charge of national social projects to improve agriculture, education, health and housing.

He has had little say in foreign policy, an area Putin clearly relishes, but is not traditionally dealt with by the prime minister.

Russian newspapers said Tuesday that Medvedev's lack of a power base among the security forces faction could make him easier for Putin to control.

Putin "will be an executive adviser for the future president on an unlimited range of issues", Vremya Novostei quoted a senior official as saying.

Another Kremlin-connected analyst, Sergei Markov, told Interfax that Putin would use United Russia's huge parliamentary majority to bolster his standing as premier.

Putin and Medvedev "will de facto be a pair in which the real leader will be Putin, since the country knows Vladimir Putin better", Markov said. "Putin will control not only the parliament majority but also the security faction."

Putin urged to lead government after Kremlin (http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20071211/wl_afp/russiavote_14;_ylt=AsFH1njWQ70E8KgNq6ngpDhbbBAF)

Russia treaty freeze a warning to NATO

By Christian Lowe Tue Dec 11, 9:33 AM ET

MOSCOW (Reuters) - Russia will not start a new arms race when it freezes compliance with a Cold War arms treaty on Wednesday but it does want to send a clear message it is not happy about NATO's eastward expansion.

Russia will suspend its participation in the Conventional Forces in Europe (CFE) treaty, a pact that limits weapons levels on either side of the old Iron Curtain and, according to Moscow, now gives NATO free rein to beef up its forces.

"There is no threat from Moscow. No one in Berlin would think that Russian tanks could move on Germany," said Anatoly Antonov, head of the foreign ministry's security and disarmament department.

But Russia's concerns about the CFE treaty "were not listened to and we are forced to take such a serious decision," he told reporters last week.

Western capitals regard Russia's move as another sign of the assertive approach to foreign policy under President Vladimir Putin. Moscow has also taken a tough stance against Washington's plans for a missile shield in Europe.

Russia's military says the only practical implication from the suspension, which comes into force at 0001 Moscow time on Wednesday, will be that it will stop exchanging data on troops levels and halt inspections.

But a senior lawmaker with Kremlin ties said last week Moscow would not rule out increasing its troops levels later if NATO ramps up its forces in eastern Europe.

RUSSIAN UNEASE

Russia's biggest grievance with the CFE treaty is that it restricts Moscow's freedom to deploy troops and weapons west of the Ural mountains, but it does not cap armaments in new NATO members in eastern Europe.

Russia has watched NATO's eastward expansion with unease and its concern has heightened as Washington prepares to open bases in new alliance members Bulgaria and Romania.

Policymakers in Moscow also fear NATO forces could be deployed in one of the ex-Soviet Baltic states, within striking distance of Russia's second city, St Petersburg.

"The hypothetical transfer of NATO forces into the Baltics is a real military threat," said Alexei Arbatov, an arms control expert at the Carnegie Moscow Center, an independent think-tank.

"This (freezing CFE compliance) is a signal that this does not suit us."

Western governments say they regret Russia's move on the treaty although they are not sounding the alarm.

"It's not a new Cold War or a new arms race -- there will be no material impact on security," said one Western diplomat. "But there will be a lack of transparency because the verification regime won't operate."

The CFE treaty has a long and tangled history. Signed in 1990 at the end of the Cold War, it secured the reduction or destruction of about 60,000 pieces of equipment and set limits on the conventional forces that remained.

New NATO members in the Baltics are not covered by the treaty. Others that are took with them into NATO their old Warsaw Pact weapons quotas, Russian officials say.

The treaty was revised in 1999 to take account of the changes but Western states have refused to ratify it, arguing that Moscow had not fulfilled a commitment to withdraw its forces from ex-Soviet Moldova and Georgia.

Russia disputes this and says the only troops it has left in the two countries are peacekeepers.

Foreign ministry official Antonov said Russia was still committed to negotiating a solution on the treaty.

"The moratorium is not an aim in itself. It is a way of attracting the attention of our partners," he said. "We are open to dialogue even after December 12."

Russia treaty freeze a warning to NATO (http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20071211/wl_nm/russia_treaty_dc;_ylt=Ah194fwTwlYva416lBnb7w5vaA8F)

A number of Middle East countries are speeding up their Middle East development projects

In recent months, a number of Arab countries have boosted their nuclear programs in what experts believe to be a response to Iran's aggressive drive to acquire nuclear weapons with these Arab nations saying they are simply developing nuclear technology for peaceful means.

Analysts however, point out that most of the nations in question are in possession of huge oil reserves or they have access to natural resources which can easily be used to produce the needed power thereby eliminating the need for the costly development of nuclear facilities. Experts argue that Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, the United Arab Emirates, Libya and Turkey are speeding up their nuclear development due to the interest of global powers competing to sell their nuclear technology.

The nuclear surge in the Middle East should alarm the world and help us to realize the geopolitical ramifications of these developments especially in light of Biblical prophecy.

The world has been focused on Iran's nuclear development program that experts claim has positioned Iran to have a Nuclear Weapon of Mass Destruction (NWMD) within a short period of time, maybe within the next one or two years. Now, there is a growing concern with the nuclear surge in the Middle East as a number of nations rush to develop their own nuclear capabilities. Experts are particularly curious as to the nuclear programs in a region which holds approximately 25% of the Earth's oil resources.

Some experts stress that peaceful nuclear technology can easily be converted to serve a nuclear weapons program. The list of nations who are developing these nuclear programs are the same countries on the list of nations that align themselves for an attack on the Jewish state of Israel in the Last Days.

The ancient Jewish prophets Daniel and Ezekiel and the Psalmist list the nations that will be included in this coalition of enemies against Israel, Daniel 11, Ezekiel 38 and Psalm 83. Under the guise of fear of the Iranian nuclear threat these Middle East nations are developing an arsenal that could be used against Israel.

Nasrallah replaced as head of Hizbullah military wing

According to London-based newspaper al-Sharq al-Awsat, Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Seyyed Ali Khamenei, has ordered Hizbullah Secretary-General Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah to hand over control of Hizbullah’s military wing to deputy chief Sheikh Naim Qasim

Roee Nahmias
Published: 12.13.07, 23:31
Israel News

Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Seyyed Ali Khamenei, has ordered Hizbullah Secretary-General Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah to relinquish control of Hizbullah’s military wing to his deputy, Sheikh Naim Qasim, the London-based newspaper al-Sharq al-Awsat reported Thursday.

These reports, based upon “sources within the liaison and recruitment office of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards based in Lebanon,” serve to confirm earlier reports in various media regarding this transfer of power from Nasrallah to Qasim.

Sources within the Revolutionary Guards operating in Lebanon, report that there have been marked differences of opinion between Nasrallah and Qasim as of late regarding key issues facing Hizbullah’s military wing. This ultimately led Khamenei to restructure Hizbullah’s chain of command, and transfer power to Qasim.

Nasrallah will continue to reign as Hizbullah secretary-general, as well as heading the organization’s intelligence unit. Imad Mornia, Hizbullah’s chief of operations, will continue to act as liaison between Hizbullah, the Palestinians, Iranian intelligence and the Revolutionary Guards.

Hizbullah was quick to deny these reports of turmoil facing its military wing. “These reports are utterly unfounded, groundless and lack all basis in objective fact,” said Hizbullah sources.

“These reports of turmoil in Hizbullah’s leadership stem from the world’s distress at the support the organization enjoys, the lofty status that its leader Sheik Nasaralla enjoys within the Arab world, and the resolve that Hizbullah’s warriors show in face of Israeli occupation.”

Nasrallah replaced as head of Hizbullah military wing (http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-3482538,00.html)

Israel: US report on Iran may spark war

By LAURIE COPANS, Associated Press Writer Sat Dec 15, 11:35 AM ET

JERUSALEM - Israel's public security minister warned Saturday that a U.S. intelligence report that said Iran is no longer developing nuclear arms could lead to a regional war that would threaten the Jewish state.

In his remarks — Israel's harshest criticism yet of the U.S. report — Avi Dichter said the assessment also cast doubt on American intelligence in general, including information about Palestinian security forces' crackdown on militant groups. The Palestinian action is required as part of a U.S.-backed renewal of peace talks with Israel this month.

Dichter cautioned that a refusal to recognize Iran's intentions to build weapons of mass destruction could lead to armed conflict in the Middle East.

He compared the possibility of such fighting to a surprise attack on Israel in 1973 by its Arab neighbors, which came to be known in Israel for the Yom Kippur Jewish holy day on which it began.

"The American misconception concerning Iran's nuclear weapons is liable to lead to a regional Yom Kippur where Israel will be among the countries that are threatened," Dichter said in a speech in a suburb south of Tel Aviv, according to his spokesman, Mati Gil. "Something went wrong in the American blueprint for analyzing the severity of the Iranian nuclear threat."

Dichter didn't elaborate on the potential scenario but seemed to imply that a world that let its guard down regarding Iran would be more vulnerable to attack by the Islamic regime.

Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert had disputed the U.S. intelligence assessment this month, saying that Iran continues its efforts to obtain components necessary to produce nuclear weapons. Tehran still poses a major threat to the West and the world must stop it, Olmert said.

Israel has for years been warning that Iran is working on nuclear weapons and backed the United States in its international efforts to exert pressure on Iran to stop the program. Israel considers Iran a significant threat because of its nuclear ambitions, its long-range missile program and repeated calls by its president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, for the disappearance of Israel.

Iran says its nuclear program is for purely peaceful purposes.

Israel will work to change the American intelligence agencies' view of Iran, said Dichter, a former chief of Israel's Shin Bet secret service agency.

"A misconception by the world's leading superpower is not just an internal American occurrence," Dichter said.

Any future faulty U.S. intelligence on the actions of Palestinian security forces could damage peace efforts, Dichter said.

"Those same (intelligence) arms in the U.S. are apt to make a mistake and declare that the Palestinians have fulfilled their commitments, which would carry with it very serious consequences from Israel's vantage point," Dichter said.

Israel: US report on Iran may spark war (http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20071215/ap_on_re_mi_ea/israel_us_iran)

Azerbaijan: Western secrets sent to Iran
36 minutes ago

BAKU, Azerbaijan - Azerbaijan's security agency said Saturday that 15 people convicted this week of treason had passed information on U.S., British and Israeli activities in the ex-Soviet republic to Iranian intelligence.

The National Security Ministry gave new details about the group, which allegedly passed to Iranian agents details on Western embassies, companies, pipeline operations and employees operating in Azerbaijan from 2005 to 2006.

The Court for Grave Crimes on Monday sentenced the 15 to lengthy prison sentences in a case that highlighted Azerbaijan's concern over the influence of neighboring Iran.

The 15 were arrested in January on suspicion of crimes including plotting to forcefully seize power, treason, organizing a criminal group, possession of weapons and drugs, and counterfeiting.

Two members of the group allegedly met repeatedly with intelligence agents in Iran, where they received training, equipment, maps and more than $10,000 in funding, the ministry said.

Said Dadashbeyli, the alleged leader who worked at a U.S.-Azerbaijani drilling company, sought Iranian support for a plot to seize power in Azerbaijan and establish Islamic law in the oil-rich country. He was sentenced to 14 years in prison, along with two other group members. The others received sentences ranging from two years to 13, the court said.

Dadashbeyli's lawyer said the charges were unfounded.

Predominantly Muslim Azerbaijan has increasingly been caught in a tug-of-war for influence between the secular, democratic West and its large southern neighbor.

Rumblings of Shiite political Islam have been particularly noticeable in the more conservative regions that border Iran, and the secular government has displayed concern over Iranian influence and Islamic extremism.

Azerbaijan: Western secrets sent to Iran (http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20071216/ap_on_re_as/azerbaijan_iran_trial_1;_ylt=AvwPuDyqtkRV_gwVyK3qnrsUewgF)

Putin Orders ‘First Strike’ Against US Forces Over Kosovo

by Robert Jones

In reading the latest Military and Intelligence reports circulating in the Kremlin today one cannot help but have the feeling that our World has entered into a Time Warp and instead of this being 2007, we have been plunged back 93 years to 1914.

In 1914, after the assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand, the Austro-Hungarian Empire issued an ultimatum to the Russian backed Serbian government, and who instead of bending to the Western Powers mobilized for war. The resulting aftermath of the First World War left over 40 million dead with an additional 50 million human beings killed by the Spanish Flu Epidemic spread around the World by Western military forces returning from war in 1918.

Here in 2007, we, again, have the specter of World War looming over us as Serbia, once again backed by Russia, is mobilizing for war due to the Western Powers intention to acknowledge the independence of the Serbian province of Kosovo, and which Russia has vowed will not be allowed to stand.

This is coupled with China announcing the possible beginning of human-to-human Bird Flu transmission and Russia reporting another outbreak of this deadly disease and which the World Health Organization has warned will turn into a catastrophic pandemic.

In response to the latest war provocations by the Western Powers, President Putin today ordered the ‘official’ ending of the arms control treaty with the NATO Nations. Putin has further ordered Russia ’s Naval Forces back on World-Wide patrol status, with particular focus being on the Russian Navy’s ability to confront NATO Forces in the Mediterranean Sea , and which controls the sea access to the Balkans.

Particular ominous in these new reports is that Putin has reportedly ordered Russian Military Forces to ‘First Strike’ capability against any NATO force that may seek to block Russia’s sea access to the Balkans and relief to the Serbs upon the outbreak of war.

Though being kept from the American people themselves, and as the former Soviet Leader, Mikhail Gorbachev, has warned, the United States Military Leaders aggressive moves in the Balkans and the Middle East are designed to confront Russia, and not Iran as these peoples are being led to believe.

It is more than a coincidence, too, that the United States is, once again, leading the World towards another depression by their insane monetary polices as they did in the aftermath of the World War I and which led to the Great Depression.

World War, Catastrophic Flu Pandemic and World Economic Collapse have long been the Western Powers ‘master plan’ goal to accelerate their main objective of One World Government upon our World, and which only Russia and China have the ability to prevent.

What is most extraordinary about the horrific plans of the Western Powers against our human race, however, is not their stated goals, but that so many of the Western peoples still fail to see that their lives are about to be destroyed, exactly like those of their ancestors from last century.

As the American people alone face the crushing burdens of accelerating oil prices, the collapse of their stock market, the World-Wide collapse of the US dollar, and the catastrophic collapse of their housing market, it is, perhaps, instructive for them to know what their War Leaders know, and which is:

Putin Orders ‘First Strike’ Against US Forces Over Kosovo (http://www.nworeport.com/orders12.htm)

Polish PM Tusk rejects Russian ballistic threat
Sun Dec 16, 2007 12:07pm EST

WARSAW (Reuters) - Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk dismissed on Sunday a Russian warning that the positioning of a U.S. anti-missile base in Poland could trigger a Russian ballistic missile attack.

He was replying to a Russian warning that the firing of a weapon from a U.S. anti-missile system in Poland could be misread by Moscow's automated defences, triggering the launch of an intercontinental ballistic missile in return.

"When I hear the words of a Russian general about an automatic reaction, that recalled the worst of times to me," said Tusk, whose country was an unwilling member of the Soviet bloc from 1944 to 1989.

"Remarks of that type are impermissible, because no Russian general is going to influence Polish-U.S. negotiations on the question."

Defense minister Radoslaw Sikorski had said earlier Poland would listen to Russia's arguments but would take its own decision on the missile shield.

Sikorski, who is due to meet Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Kislyak shortly, said: "We have not yet reached a conclusion as to whether the anti-missile shield is necessary."

On Saturday, army Chief of Staff Yuri Baluyevsky told a news conference in Moscow: "The firing of an anti-missile rocket from Poland could be seen by Russia's automated system as the launch of a ballistic missile, which could provoke a responsive strike."

Poland has asked the United States for Patriot missiles or similar air protection to defend its cities if it is to host the anti-missile shield on its territory.

Russia is opposed to the U.S. plan to site up to 10 ground-based interceptor missiles in northern Poland and a radar facility in the Czech Republic to protect against attacks from what it calls "rogue states" such as Iran and North Korea.

Russian President Vladimir Putin has said the plan could unleash a new arms race and might force Moscow to take retaliatory measures.

Polish PM Tusk rejects Russian ballistic threat (http://www.reuters.com/article/newsOne/idUSL1657140720071216?sp=true)

The Israeli Air Force is now training outside of Israel, preparing for the real thing, an Iranian strike

According to a senior Israeli Defense Force officer, the Israeli Air Force has been conducting an increasing number of training missions outside of Israel, over the Mediterranean, in the United States, Canada and other countries.

The announcement of the new Israeli Air Force training policy comes as Israeli Public Security Minister Avi Dichter said that something went wrong in the software the Americans use to analyze the severity of the threat of a nuclear Iran, not only to Israel but the whole region including northern Africa and Europe.

As the Israeli Air Force trains for the real thing, an attack from Iran or other distant threat, Bible prophecy predicting just such an attack comes better into focus.

The statement by the Israeli Public Security Minister Avi Dichter that the intelligence estimate made by the United State was not reality. He said that Iran is a major threat for the entire Middle East region and all of the countries of Europe as well which has caused the Israeli Air Force to begin preparing for the real thing.

The real thing defined militarily is the attack on Israel by her number one enemy, Iran, but also includes the multiple attacks that could well take place at the same time.

The Israeli's realize that they live in a tough neighborhood and they must be prepared to defend themselves, thus the new training policy for the Israeli Air Force holding exercises outside of Israel.

This report is evidence that the prophetic passages penned by Daniel, Ezekiel and the Psalmist seem to be moving closer to fulfillment. Ezekiel 38:5 mentions Persia which is modern day Iran, as one of an alignment of nations that will attack Israel in the last days.

Iran is only one of over ten nations that will join in the attacks on the Jewish state itself. Nations like Syria, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Lebanon and others as foretold in Daniel 11 and Psalm 83.

The reality that the Israeli Air Force is preparing now for the real thing is indeed evidence that Bible prophecy will be fulfilled. And maybe in the very near future.

IAF: Training Abroad for the 'Real Thing'

Israel Air Force has been conducting an increasing number of training missions outside of Israel, over the Mediterranean, in the United States, Canada, Italy and other countries.

According to a senior IAF officer who spoke to Maariv/NRG this week, one of the reasons for this training policy is the Iranian threat: "The IAF's fighter jets need to train for missions against very distant targets, like Iran, and they therefore require long operational ranges," the officer explained. In addition, he said, the IAF fighters use long range radar guided missiles, and therefore need to practice over larger areas, such as the sea.

There are other considerations for conducting training abroad, as well, he said: Israel's skies are cluttered with civilian traffic; there are experiments by security industries which hamper flight, and environmental factors, among others.

Prime Minister Ehud Olmert scolded cabinet ministers at the weekly cabinet meeting Sunday for making statements about a US intelligence report released last week that said Iran had ceased its nuclear weapons development in 2003.

"I ask the ministers to stop making statements about Iran and the American Intelligence Estimate," he said. "I wish to remind you that the cabinet discussed the matter and stated the Israeli position on the Iranian issue."

Olmert's remarks were seen as a specific rebuke in response to Public Security Minister and former General Security Service (Shin Bet) chief Avi Dichter's blunt criticism of the Americans' intelligence assessment of the Iranian threat, which he called a "misconception."

Speaking at an event Saturday in Holon, Dichter said, "Something went wrong in the 'software' the Americans used to analyze the severity of the threat of a nuclear Iran. Let us hope the United States knows how to fix that."

The Public Security Minister said part of the blame fell on Israel as well. "We did not succeed in convincing the US about how real and close the Iranian nuclear threat is. The size of the region that is threatened by Iran is [determined by] the range of its missiles," he said. "That includes all of the countries of Europe and North Africa."

Dichter added, "A mistaken conception by the world's leading power is not just an internal American issue. It has to alarm Israel and many other countries."

Olmert made it clear at Sunday's meeting that no further statements on the Iranian threat, the American understanding of that threat and its scope should be made.

"There is no place for private announcements by every single minister on this sensitive and complex subject," said the Prime Minister. "These statements do not help us manage the struggle against the Iranian nuclear project and do not improve our relationship with the US. This matter needs to be handled with great care. I request ministers not to make statements on the subject if it is not within their ministry's purview."

Israel, Russia on collision course after Moscow fuels Iranian nuclear plant?

By Stan Goodenough
Dec 18, 2007

When, in an effort to stop Iran from reaching the status of nuclear military power, Israel attacks the sites housing that country's nuclear program, it could find itself on a collision course with Russia.

This possibility emerged Monday amid reports that Russia had delivered what an unnamed Iranian official called a "first batch" of 82 tons of nuclear fuel to the Iranian plant at Bushehr.

According to the Israeli daily Ha'aretz, Russia announced its intention to supply the fuel just days after the publication of a US National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) which concluded that Iran had stopped trying to build a nuclear bomb four years ago.

Hailed as a victory by Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, the NIE report led to an immediate evaporation of the international pressure on Iran to end its quest for nuclear arms, leaving Israel standing alone against the threat.

In a statement that might return to haunt him, US President George W. Bush said he supported Russia's supplying of the nuclear fuel because it removed any reason the Iranians might have for continuing to enrich its own uranium.

But Israeli officials are deeply concerned.

Strategic Affairs Minister Avigdor Liberman told the Knesset Monday afternoon that Iran needed only a few months to make the transition "from a civilian nuclear energy track to a military one."

A day earlier, Internal Security Minister Avi Dichter had warned that the NIE report could pave the way for "another Yom Kippiur War."

And Ynet quoted an unnamed senior political-defense source as saying that "Iran will do anything to continue (developing nuclear technology) while attempting to confound the Western World."

Russian President Vladimir Putin has strategically aligned his country with Iran, resisting US requests to join an international embargo against the Islamic Republic and instead entering into a historic covenantal relationship with it.

This deepening relationship will only complicate any plans Israel has to strike Iran's facilities.

When Israel took out the French-sponsored Iraqi nuclear reactor called Osirak in 1981, it triggered a crisis with President Francois Mitterrand, who immediately vowed to rebuild the plant. Although he never kept his word, France did supply Iraq with five highly sophisticated fighter bombers armed with Exocet missiles.

Before Osirak, Israel's relations with France were seldom more than cordial. By contrast, its often tense relations with Soviet Russia have brought the Middle East to the brink of nuclear war on at least one occasion.

While the USSR is no more, analysts believe Putin seeks to re-establish the level of influence in the Middle East once enjoyed by the Soviet Empire.

Israel, Russia on collision course after Moscow fuels Iranian nuclear plant? (http://www.jnewswire.com/article/2270)

Russian sect prays to Putin icons, claims he is the 'chosen one'
11/ 12/ 2007

MOSCOW, December 11 (RIA Novosti) - Vladimir Putin may be popular in Russia for saving the nation from the chaos of the 1990s, but a sect in the country has taken its devotion a step further by praying to 'presidential icons.'

The Bolshaya Elnya village in the Nizhny Novgorod Region is home to the "Rus' Resurrecting" sect, a group of local residents who believe that President Putin was both the Apostle Paul and King Solomon in previous lives.

Rus' is the term used for the medieval East Slavic nation that gave its name to modern Russia.

"We didn't choose Putin," Mother Fontinya told the Moskovsky Komsomolets paper, expounding on the first time she laid eyes on the "holy one."

"It was when Yeltsin was naming him as his successor [during a live New Year's Eve TV broadcast in 1999]. My soul exploded with joy! 'An ubermensch! God himself has chosen him!'" I cried.

"Yeltsin was the destroyer, and God replaced him with his creation," claimed Fontinya.

The sect possesses a President Putin icon that Fontinya claims miraculously appeared one day.

"He has given us everything," she said, pointing to the sky.

A special newspaper published by the sect - 'The Temple of Light' - features interviews with long-dead religious figures, including the Apostle Paul. The sect members are also convinced that President Putin knows about and supports the actions of their 'Mother Superior.'

Russian Christian sects have long been known for their unusual choices of icons, some of them praying to portraits of such well-known 'holy men' as Stalin and Ivan the Terrible.

Another Russian sect is currently holed up in an underground shelter in the country's central Penza Region and has threatened to commit mass suicide if any attempt is made to bring them to the surface.

Religion was tightly controlled in the U.S.S.R. and the collapse of the Soviet Union saw an explosion in sects and cults, as well as interest in New Age philosophies and beliefs. The back pages of many Russian tabloid newspapers are full of advertisements for 'healers' and 'magicians' who promise to bring happiness in love, success in business, as well as a range of other services.

One of the most well-known sects in Russia has its base near the southern Siberian town of Abakan, where thousands of people, both Russian and foreign, worship a former provincial traffic policeman, Sergei Torop, as the second coming of Christ.

There are currently believed to be around 500-700 such sects in Russia, containing some 600,000-800,000 people.

Russian sect prays to Putin icons, claims he is the 'chosen one' (http://en.rian.ru/russia/20071211/91857622.html)

Russia threatens to target US missile shield

By Harry de Quetteville and Isambard Wilkinson
Last Updated: 3:05am GMT 19/12/2007

Russia has threatened to target two proposed American bases in Europe with its nuclear missiles if the Pentagon pressed ahead with its plans for a missile defence shield.

In an escalation of the Cold War-style threats favoured by President Vladimir Putin, the general in charge of Russia's ballistic arsenal said that he could target the bases in Poland and the Czech Republic that will host the missile-interceptor shield if America insists on building them.

"I do not exclude the missile-defence shield sites in Poland and the Czech Republic being chosen as targets for some of our intercontinental ballistic missiles," said Gen Nikolai Solovtsov.

America insists that its new shield will carry only a few missiles, designed to intercept warheads fired from rogue states, such as Iran.

But Gen Solovtsov dismissed that concept as a lie, claiming that America was determined to surround Russia with its military might.

"If the Americans signed a treaty with us that they would only deploy 10 anti-missile rockets in Poland and one radar in the Czech Republic and will never put anything else there, then we could deal with this," he said. "However they won't sign, they just tell us verbally, 'We won't threaten you'."

He said that believing such verbal assurances in the past had seen Russia encircled by the Western military alliance, Nato.

"Verbally they already told us that when we re-unite Germany there won't be one Nato soldier there. Now where are they?," he said. "They already cheated Russia once."

Gen Solovtsov's remarks follow a year of increasingly bombastic comments about the proposed missile shield.

Moscow separately said that a shipment of Russian nuclear fuel had arrived in Iran, which the Bush administration suspects is seeking to develop an atomic weapons programme under the cover of civilian energy production.

The delivery of enriched uranium was made to Bushehr power station, which is being built by a Russian company and is expected to start producing electricity within six months.

President George W Bush said that "if the Iranians accept uranium for a civilian nuclear power plant, then there's no need for them to learn how to enrich".

Any suggestion that Iran is attempting to further enrich the uranium it has received in order to make it weapons-grade could trigger a military response from the US or Israel.

America and Britain are already pushing for a new round of sanctions against Teheran at the United Nations Security Council, despite a recent US intelligence report that suggested that Iran's nuclear weapons research might have been mothballed.

The heightened tensions between Washington and Moscow looked unlikely to subside soon as Mr Putin said that he was ready to become prime minister when he steps down as president ahead of elections in March.

The job will allow him to continue exerting enormous public influence under the rule of his near-certain successor, Dmitry Medvedev. It would also give him the platform to run as president again in 2012.

"If the citizens of Russia trust Dmitry Medvedev and elect him the country's president I will be ready to chair the government," Mr Putin said at a conference of the ruling United Russia party.

In two terms as president Mr Putin has led a resource-rich Russia from post-communist weakness back to the heart of global affairs through a sometimes confrontational approach.

Russia threatens to target US missile shield (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2007/12/18/wrussia118.xml)
~~~~~~~

Here we go again.............

Vladimir Putin seeks to keep power by creating new, larger Russia
Mark Franchetti in Moscow

PRESIDENT Vladimir Putin could remain in power for at least another five years as leader of a new state born of a union between Russia and Belarus, the former Soviet republic.

A merger between the two neighbours was the main topic of discussion last week during Putin’s first official state visit to Belarus since 2003. Coming only three months before he is due to step down in accordance with the Russian constitution, which bars presidents from serving more than two consecutive terms, the visit has been described by Kremlin sources as “extremely significant”.

Insiders said the real purpose of the trip to see Alexander Lukashenko, the dictatorial president of Belarus, was to try to hammer out a unification treaty and agree on who would lead the new state as president.

A draft constitution would give the leader of a single Russian-Belarussian state power over both national governments for at least one term of five or seven years. If agreed, it would be put to voters in both countries. Putin could then become president of the new state and Lukashenko his vice-president.

In the event of such an agreement, Putin, 55, is unlikely to make an announcement about his future until after Russia’s presidential elections in March. Last week he threw his weight behind Dmitry Medvedev, a deputy prime minister and chairman of the energy giant Gazprom, as his successor.

A day later Medvedev, 42, who has worked alongside Putin for 17 years, returned the favour by proposing that if he were elected president, his mentor should be prime minister.

Kremlin sources said Putin might still accept the Russian prime ministership but was taken with the idea of becoming president of a new Russian-Belarussian state.

“Becoming prime minister after having been president for eight years is a bit humiliating,” said a Kremlin aide. “No matter how much power Putin would wield, it would still be seen as a step backwards in his eyes.”

Russia and Belarus agreed to boost ties in 1997 in the days of Boris Yeltsin, Putin’s predecessor, but attempts to form a union have so far failed. The main stumbling block has been Lukashenko, an erratic figure whom Putin is said to dislike and mistrust.

Relations between the neighbouring states have been tense lately. Earlier this year the Kremlin threatened to cut off gas supplies to Belarus, prompting Lukashenko to warn that he “would never kneel down” before Moscow.

If the two presidents fail to reach an agreement, Putin could accept the job of prime minister and make a series of constitutional changes to increase the powers of that office.

Earlier this month United Russia, Putin’s party, won an overwhelming majority in parliamentary elections. Its dominance of the Duma, the lower house, means that a vote on changes to the constitution supported by Putin would pass without opposition.

“Make no mistake, Medvedev may be different from his master but the real power in the Kremlin after the March elections will be with Putin,” said Alexei Venediktov, Russia’s most respected opposition journalist. “Whether as president of a new state or as a powerful prime minister, Putin will be the one calling the shots.”

Vladimir Putin seeks to keep power by creating new, larger Russia (http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/europe/article3056685.ece?print=yes&randnum=1197977040156)

China, India building trust in first joint military exercises

15 hours ago

BEIJING (AFP) — China said its first-ever joint military exercises with India that began this week were aimed at building trust between the neighbours, which still have rival claims to Himalayan territory.

The nine-day military exercises in southwest China, which involve around 100 troops from each side, began on Wednesday, foreign ministry spokesman Qin Gang told a regular press briefing.

"The aim of the training is to enhance mutual understanding and mutual trust between the Chinese and Indian militaries," Qin said.

A Chinese defence ministry spokesman was quoted earlier on the official Xinhua news agency as saying that the training, in Yunnan province, would focus on counter-terrorism exercises.

The historic manoeuvres were announced after Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh met his Chinese counterpart, Wen Jiabao, on the sidelines of an ASEAN summit in Singapore last month.

China and India have a history of rocky relations, and they have yet to resolve a border row that triggered a brief but a bitter war in 1962.

India says China occupies 38,000 square kilometres (14,670 square miles) of its territory, while Beijing claims the whole of the northeastern Indian state of Arunachal Pradesh, which is 90,000 square kilometres.

However ties between the regional rivals have thawed since the 1990s, and trade between the two has flourished in recent years.

Qin played down the effects of the lingering border dispute, emphasising the world's two biggest developing countries had much in common on international issues.

"In fact, it's very natural and normal for two countries to have differences," he said.

A second military drill is scheduled to take place in 2008 in India, an Indian defence ministry spokesman said earlier.

China, India building trust in first joint military exercises (http://afp.google.com/article/ALeqM5jpAuTQsMfgyBy2uewsyU56YKLzdA)
~~~~~~~~~~

And the gathering is coming together, just as the Bible says. :D

North Korea resists Dec 31 declaration deadline
Thu Dec 20, 2007 5:04pm EST

By Arshad Mohammed and Sue Pleming

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The United States is still struggling to get North Korea to disclose its nuclear programs, a challenge in a society so tight-lipped that it would keep even clothing sizes secret, a U.S. official said on Thursday.

North Korea has promised to make a declaration by December 31 as part of a wider deal to abandon its pursuit of nuclear weapons in exchange for economic and diplomatic benefits from the United States and others.

The senior official told Reuters that reflexively secretive North Korea was reluctant to detail its nuclear proliferation activities -- which it has steadfastly denied -- as well as what it regards as military secrets in its declaration.

"They have real weapons and so they should tell us what the weapons program looks like," said the official, who asked not to be identified because of the sensitivity of the negotiations.

"That is where you get into military secrets and, in a country that would keep a sweater size secret, you can imagine the difficulty in revealing military secrets," he added.

North Korea has published no economic statistics in the past several decades and severely limits its citizens' travel and contact with the outside world. Its leader, Kim Jong-il, has uttered only several words in public in his long career.

Sung Kim, a U.S. State Department official who is in Pyongyang to discuss North Korea's nuclear declaration, has reported progress in some areas but sticking points in others, the official said.

"It was a very mixed picture because we are not there yet with the declaration after one day. We made some progress but there are some sticking points remaining," the official said of Kim's first day of talks with officials from North Korea's General Directorate of Atomic Energy and its foreign ministry.

Kim has two more working days in North Korea to pursue the issue, which is widely seen in Washington as a key indicator of whether or not North Korea is committed to abandoning its nuclear weapons under a September 2005 multilateral deal.

Washington has already signaled that North Korea might not make the December 31 deadline for the declaration.

The official was upbeat about North Korea's work to disable its Yongbyon nuclear facility, also due by December 31, although he said this could slide into February for technical reasons. The foreign officials overseeing the disablement have chosen to go slowly on removing fuel rods for safety reasons.

"The disabling of the facilities is going ahead well. They have five of 11 tasks fully done and the others are under way. I think everyone involved with the disablement process is very satisfied," he said.

'NO ONE TURNS INTO A PUMPKIN'

The official showed Reuters before-and-after photographs of the disablement. One depicted a "fuel rod machine lathe" -- a piece of equipment that shapes plutonium fuel rods -- first with the machinery intact and then taken apart and removed.

"The timeline, of course, of December 31 is notional. No one turns into a pumpkin on December 31, but obviously we would like to get these 'phase two' tasks done at or around December 31 so that we can move on to the next phase, which would be dismantlement and abandonment of the fissile material," he added.

Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice said on Thursday a lot was at stake and she wanted a "complete and accurate" declaration from North Korea.

"This is now a crucial step, because if we are to move forward ... on all of the benefits that would come to North Korea through the successful completion of this second phase, we really must have an accurate declaration," she said.

If North Korea provides the declaration and dismantles Yongbyon, the United States has dangled the possibility of removing it from the U.S. state sponsors of terrorism list.

The official said he expected Pyongyang to be taken off the list before U.S. President George W. Bush steps down in January 2009, assuming it qualified under U.S. law and met its denuclearization commitments.

North Korea resists Dec 31 declaration deadline (http://www.reuters.com/articlePrint?articleId=USN2020365420071220)

Ex-CIA official: Israel will attack Iran
Adviser to 3 presidents became convinced after November trip

Bruce Riedel, a former career CIA official and senior adviser to three US presidents, including Bush, tells Newsweek he came back from trip to Israel in November convinced that Jewish state would attack Iran. 'Israel is not going to allow its nuclear monopoly to be threatened,' he says

"I came back from a trip to Israel in November convinced that Israel would attack Iran," Bruce Riedel, a former career CIA official and senior adviser to three US presidents - including George W. Bush - on Middle East and South Asian issues, told Newsweek Thursday, citing conversations he had with Mossad and Israeli defense officials.

"And that was before the National Intelligence Estimate (NIE). This makes it even more likely. Israel is not going to allow its nuclear monopoly to be threatened," the American magazine quoted Riedel as saying in an article titled, "What will Israel do?".

Published in early December, the American NIE determined that Iran had shelved its nuclear weapons program in 2003.

According to Newsweek, "a rising tide of opinion in Israel's intelligence and national-security circles believes that the NIE does signal American retreat-and, more profoundly, renewed Israeli isolation over what is deemed an existential threat out of Tehran."

'Israel has gotten away with it'

The magazine quoted Knesset Member Ephraim Sneh, a former deputy defense minister who has "warned for years that Israel would eventually have to confront Iran alone," as saying that "today we are closer to this situation than we were three weeks ago ... we have to be prepared to forestall this threat on our own."

David Albright of the Institute for Science and International Security in Washington told Newsweek that Israel was likely encouraged by the non-reaction to their September air strike on a reported Syrian nuclear facility, "which may have been a test run for Iran, or at least a warning directed at Tehran".

"Israel has gotten away with it in a sense," Albright was quoted as saying. He suggested that any Israeli pre-emptive action might not be a "traditional strike" but could involve more "sabotage of equipment".

Newsweek said Israel also knows that the Arab states are "terrified of an Iranian nuclear power, possibly to the point of looking the other way at another such strike".

The magazine said one reason for Bush's abruptly announced nine-day visit to the Middle East in mid-January was "to deal with the fallout from the NIE, which includes not only the possibility that Israel will act unilaterally but also that Bush's prized Annapolis peace process will stall.

"The Bush trip is, in part, an implicit concession to US hawks that the NIE went too far in absolving Iran. It is also a conscious effort to reassure both Israel and the Arab states that Washington will stand up to Iran's increasing intrusiveness and hegemonic tendencies," Newsweek said in its report.

Think tank sees Israel, not Iran, surviving a Mideast nuclear war
December 20, 2007

WASHINGTON — Iran could sustain up to 28 million and Israel 800,000 casualties in a nuclear war between the two countries.

A report by the Center for Strategic and International Studies envisioned a nuclear missile war between Iran and Israel that would last 21 days. Authored by former Defense Department strategist Anthony Cordesman, the report said Israel could conceivably survive a nuclear war, but Iran would not.

"Iranian recovery is not possible in the normal sense of the term," the report, entitled "Iran, Israel and Nuclear War," said. "Israeli recovery [is] theoretically possible in population and economic terms."

The report was released on Nov. 19 amid Iranian threats to destroy the Jewish state. Cordesman said Israel could cause tremendous damage to Iran because of its much more powerful nuclear weapons.

"Israel and U.S. capability to preempt is factor, but main issue may be Israel's ability to clearly develop mutual assured destruction and U.S. capability to deploy credible level of extended deterrence," the report said.

Israel has produced nuclear weapons with a yield of one megaton, the report said. In contrast, Iran would be unable to assemble a weapon of more than 100 kilotons.

A megaton weapon could inflict third-degree burns at three times the radius, and radiation fallout could kill others at a distance of 130 kilometers. A 100 kiloton bomb could result in casualties within a radius of 13 kilometers.

The report expressed confidence in Israeli missile defense capabilities. Cordesman said most Iranian nuclear missiles could be intercepted by the Israeli-origin Arrow-2 missile defense system, bolstered by the U.S-origin PAC-2 Guided Enhanced Missile Plus.

The report envisions a war between 2010 and 2020, when Iran was expected to acquire an arsenal of up to 30 nuclear warheads. Cordesman expected Israel to have more than 200 nuclear warheads, launched by ground- and sea-based systems.

"Prevention [of Iran's nuclear weapons] may stimulate massive covert, dispersed effort," the report said. "Preemption becomes radically different once Iran has nuclear armed force."

Cordesman expects Syria, albeit without nuclear weapons, to join any war. The report envisions Syria firing chemical and other nonconventional weapons that could kill up to 800,000 Israelis. For its part, Syria could lose 18 million in an Israeli nuclear retaliation.

Egypt could also join an Iranian war against Israel. The report expected Israel to retaliate by firing nuclear missiles toward Alexandria, Aswan, Cairo and other cities. Cordesman said Egypt's Suez Canal and Aswan Dam would be destroyed.

"Rational actors do not fight nuclear wars, but history is not written about rational actors behaving in a rational manner," the report said.

Think tank sees Israel, not Iran, surviving a Mideast nuclear war (http://www.worldtribune.com/worldtribune/WTARC/2007/me_nuclear_12_20.asp)

Somebody in this think tank knows Biblical prophecy, this is just a quick run down.....

Gog and Magog first appear in Ezekiel 38-39. In light of recent events in the world today, this prophecy has received more attention. There are of course no guarantees, but some people, myself included, believe that this could occur at literally any time.

Ezekiel 38-39 are next in the time line as chapter 40 begins the description of the Millennial Kingdom. This does not mean that these events are imminent, as there is a time span of 1900 years between chapters 36 and 37, but it is next in line by Ezekiel’s timeline. This does also not mean that other things described in other prophecies will not happen before the battle of Gog and Magog. It is quite possible that the rapture occurs before this battle, but we have no guarantee. But at the same time, Isaiah 17 can happen, that is the destruction of Damascus.

Ezekiel 39:9 begins the description of the aftermath. It is gruesome but also amazing in its detail when looked at in comparison to today. “Then those who live in the towns of Israel will go out and use the weapons for fuel and burn them up, the small and large shields, the bows and arrows, the war clubs and spears. For seven years they will use them for fuel.

However, this event cannot happen at the beginning of the tribulation because the tribulation begins with the antichrist signing a peace treaty with Israel. This means that this battle occurs before the tribulation. While it is purely speculation on my part, I believe that this is the final straw that leaves everyone crying out for peace and the perfect setting for the antichrist to step in and give it to the nations.

I believe (and these are my own thoughts maybe not yours) that we will be taken before the tribulation. However, even if I’m correct, we have no assurance how long before the tribulation we’ll be taken. The rapture may occur and then this horrific battle takes place. Or we may be witness to it. If we are, let the readers (guests) know that the prophetic calendar is being fulfilled in our presence.

The reason for all of this destruction is for God to be glorified. In verses 21-22 he says, “I will display my glory among the nations, and all the nations will see the punishment I inflict and the hand I lay upon them. From that day forward the house of Israel will know that I am the Lord their God.”

Israel has nothing to fear from their enemies though, because they are protected by the Lord of Hosts. Another words, Israel will NOT be harmed in Ezekiel 38-39.

S.Korea's Lee seeks joint project with N.Korea, Russia
Fri Dec 21, 2007 3:37pm IST

SEOUL (Reuters) - South Korea's president-elect Lee Myung-bak on Friday proposed a landmark project to exploit natural resources in the Russian Far East using North Korean labour, saying it would benefit all three countries.

Lee, who two days ago became the first former CEO to win South Korea's presidency, made the proposal in a meeting with Russia's ambassador.

"He has been interested for years in linking Korean technology with Russia's resources," said Yim Songbin, an adviser to the Lee camp on international relations.

Lee, who will be the first businessman to run South Korea, struck deals in parts of the Soviet Union when he was CEO of Hyundai construction.

The president-elect will push to implement the resource development project when he takes office in late February, Yim said.

The cooperation with North Korea, which has a border with Russia, would provide the destitute state cash for its workers and fees for the use of its land for transporting materials back to the South, Yim explained.

In his first news conference as president-elect, Lee said he would review the way South Korea has been handing over aid to its prickly neighbour and tie it more closely to specific actions from the North, such as scrapping its nuclear arms programme.

Lee stormed to victory on Wednesday with pledges to find practical solutions that breathe new life into the world's 13th largest economy.

Despite his popularity, Lee has been dogged by allegations of involvement in a securities fraud, a problem that flared up again just before the election when a liberal-dominated parliament agreed a special investigator should look into the accusations.

Outgoing President Roh Moo-hyun plans to approve the special counsel despite calls from Lee's conservative Grand National Party to veto the measure for the sake of national unity, local media reported on Friday.

S.Korea's Lee seeks joint project with N.Korea, Russia (http://in.reuters.com/articlePrint?articleId=INIndia-31080120071221)

Russian military to get new missile, tank
Sat Dec 22, 2007 11:25pm IST

MOSCOW (Reuters) - The Russian armed forces will receive a new submarine-based intercontinental ballistic missile in 2008 and a new type of tank in 2009, local news agencies quoted a top Russian general as saying on Saturday.

Deputy Defence Minister Nikolai Makarov was quoted as saying the nuclear submarine Yuri Dolgoruky, equipped with the Bulava missile, will become part of the Russian navy next year.

Makarov was quoted as saying tests of the missile were almost completed and "we will get it in 2008".

The Bulava is a flagship project that President Vladimir Putin has said can pierce any anti-missile shield.

The armed forces have carried out regular missile tests in the past few years. They are viewed by the political and military leadership as evidence of a revival of Russia's military might.

Buoyed by huge oil revenues, Russia under Putin has been boosting military spending while at the same time using diplomacy to increase its influence as it seeks to counter U.S. plans for a missile defence shield in Europe.

The Bulava missile is designed for Russia's new Borei (Arctic Wind) class nuclear submarines. The first, long-delayed submarine of the class was launched last April.

Makarov said that in 2009 the army would also receive a new type of tank "with an entirely new chassis, weapons, target recognition and fire control systems." Russian ground forces are currently equipped with T-90, T-72 and T-80 tanks.

"Now we are carrying out tests, which we plan to complete next year, and in 2009 the new tank will go into production," he said.

Russia currently has two tanks in the works -- the "Black Eagle", created in the 1990s by the Omsk tank design bureau and first shown to public in 2004, and the T-95, created by Uralvagonzavod. Few details on the T-95 are publicly available.

Putin signed a law suspending Russia's participation in the Conventional Forces in Europe (CFE) Treaty in a step which could allow it to deploy more forces close to western Europe. Russia declared 5,063 tanks deployed in the European area in 2007.

Russian military to get new missile, tank (http://in.reuters.com/articlePrint?articleId=INIndia-31091620071222)

Russia, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan sign Caspian gas pipeline deal

Moscow (AP): Russia, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan signed a landmark agreement on Thursday to build a natural gas pipeline along the Caspian Sea coast that would strengthen Moscow's monopoly on energy exports from the resource-rich region.

The deal, which follows a preliminary agreement reached in May, ended months of tense arguments over the price of gas supplies. It reaffirms Russia's monopoly on gas supplies from Central Asia and deals a strong blow to Western hopes of securing alternate energy export routes.

``We have just signed an extremely important agreement between Russia, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan on building the Caspian pipeline,'' President Vladimir Putin said. ``It will become a new important contribution of our nations into strengthening the European energy security.''

Late last month, Russia's state-controlled monopoly OAO Gazprom gave in to Turkmen price demands and agreed to pay US$130 (euro90) per 1,000 cubic meters of natural gas in the first half of 2008 and US$150 (euro104) in the second half.

The agreement will likely disappoint the United States and the European Union, which have been lobbying for a rival pipeline to be built under the Caspian Sea, bypassing Russia.

Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbayev and Turkmen President Gurbanguli Berdymukhamedov have expressed interest in undersea pipelines and voiced support for multiple export routes.

However, prospects for pipelines under the Caspian have been clouded by high costs, environmental concerns and disputes over ownership of the sea resources.

Russia controls existing export pipeline for gas from Turkmenistan, which has the largest reserves in the former Soviet Union after Russia. The pipeline has an annual capacity of 50 billion cubic meters.

The new pipeline would have an initial annual capacity of 20 billion cubic meters, and it could grow significantly in the future.

Russia's Deputy Prime Minister Viktor Khristenko said the new pipeline would be built by 2010.

Russia, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan sign Caspian gas pipeline deal (http://www.hindu.com/thehindu/holnus/003200712201860.htm)

Russia seeking to improve ties with Libya to restore influence
2007-12-25 23:35:42

TUNIS, Dec. 25 (Xinhua) -- Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov's visit to Libya has been widely regarded as one of Moscow's important steps to catch up with the West in efforts to restore its influence in the North African country.

Lavrov's two-day trip that ended Monday seeks to make arrangements for a possible visit to Libya by Russian President Vladimir Putin.

In a letter extended to Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi, Putin expressed his willingness to visit the country, saying that Moscow is ready to enhance bilateral cooperation in various fields. Tripoli welcomed the letter and expects Putin's visit.

The move is widely believed to be a signal of Russia's efforts to warm up its cooled ties with Libya in a bid to regain its influence in the country.

After the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russia lost its past glories overnight, resulting in a severe deterioration of its ties with Libya, which was an important ally of the former Soviet Union and a traditional buyer of its arms.

Lavrov admitted that bilateral ties have been in stagnation for some time and said the current level of bilateral ties is incompatible with their cooperative traditions.

Libya, long accused by the West of backing terrorism, has been trying to rebuild normal relations with western countries after renouncing terrorism and nuclear weapons.

The West also intends to resume ties with Libya, eyeing its abundant oil reserves and potential as a market.

Furthermore, Libya's role in Africa and the Middle East has improved since the United Nations lifted sanctions against it, and its role will be further enhanced after Jan. 1, 2008, when it becomes a non-permanent member of the UN Security Council.

Lavrov pinned great hopes on his visit, saying both countries have the sincere wish to promote bilateral ties.

Both the Russian and Libyan governments are hoping to upgrade relations and are willing to devote themselves to enhancing cooperation in various fields, he told reporters on Monday.

Lavrov said both sides expect to sign cooperation agreements in military techniques, investment protection and avoidance of dual taxation.

According to sources from the Russian delegation, Russia has agreed to provide help to Libya in its pursuit of civilian nuclear development and both sides hope to sign such an agreement.

Analysts said Russia will comprehensively resume its ties with Libya if Putin succeeds in setting foot in the country.

What follows, they said, will be fierce contention between Russia and the West in Libya and the region at large.

Russia seeking to improve ties with Libya to restore influence (http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2007-12/25/content_7312617.htm)

Jordan supports the settlement of Nagorno-Garabagh conflict on basis of territorial integrity of Azerbaijan
26 December 2007

Azerbaijan's Defense Minister Safar Abiyev received special envoy of Jordan King for Middle Asia and Azerbaijan Abdulla Vureykat.

According to the press service for Azerbaijan's Defense Ministry, the meeting participants discussed relations between the two countries.

The special envoy of the Jordan king announced that his country supports the settlement of Nagorno-Garabagh conflict on basis of territorial integrity of Azerbaijan.

The sides also discussed current military and political situation in the region and prospects of military cooperation between Azerbaijan and Jordan.

Jordan supports the settlement of Nagorno-Garabagh conflict on basis of territorial integrity of Azerbaijan (http://www.today.az/news/politics/42055.html)
~~~~~~~~~

For those of you who don't know.........

The Nagorno-Karabakh Republic (NKR) commonly called Nagorno-Karabakh, is a de facto independent republic located in the Nagorno-Karabakh region of South Caucasus, which is officially part of Azerbaijan, about 270 kilometers (170 miles) west of the Azerbaijani capital of Baku and very close to the border with Armenia.

The predominantly Armenian-populated region became a source of dispute between Armenia and Azerbaijan when both countries gained independence from the Russian Empire in 1918. After the Soviet Union expanded into the area, it established the Nagorno-Karabakh Autonomous Oblast (NKAO) within the Azerbaijan SSR in 1923. On December 10, 1991, as the Soviet Union was collapsing, a referendum held in the NKAO and the neighboring Shahumian region resulted in a declaration of independence from Azerbaijan as the Nagorno-Karabakh Republic, which remains unrecognized by any international organization or country, including Armenia.

In the final years before the dissolution of the Soviet Union, the region re-emerged as a source of dispute between Armenia and Azerbaijan, culminating in the Nagorno-Karabakh War from 1988 to 1994. Since the ceasefire in 1994, most of Nagorno-Karabakh and several regions of Azerbaijan around it remain under joint Armenian and Nagorno-Karabakh military control. The parties have since been holding peace talks mediated by the OSCE Minsk Group.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nagorno-Karabakh_Republic

Benazir Bhutto, a politcal leader in Pakistan, has been assassinated

As the former Pakistani PM Benazir Bhutto concluded addressing a political rally in Pakistan, the leader of the opposition was shot in the neck by a gunman who then set off a bomb killing himself and a number of Bhutto supporters.

President Mushaaraf and his government have called on the Pakistani people to remain calm so that the terrorists can be defeated and order returned to the country. Bhutto had twice been the country's PM and had been campaigning ahead of the election due to be held in January. This was the second suicide attack against Ms. Bhutto in recent months and came amid a wave of bombings targeting security and government officials.

The assassination of a political leader in the only nuclear-powered Islamic state has significance geopolitically and prophetically according to Bible prophecy.

Under threat of assassination, Benazir Bhutto, former PM of Pakistan, was openly campaigning to return to power in a state that is violent due to the militant Islamic element in the country. Warned of the possibility of being killed, Bhutto went ahead in her effort to return to power and deal with the terrorists in her nation. The truth behind the assassination of Ms. Bhutto will ultimately come out but until then, chaos is the term best used to describe the situation in Pakistan. The Islamic militant element in Pakistan has been the major force behind the conflict and seems to be positioning itself in to take control of the nuclear facility of Pakistan, the only such nuclear WMD in the Islamic world.

This would empower the radical Islamic groups to facilitate the prophetic scenario that is found in Joel 2:2-3 which speaks of a mighty Moslem militia formed in the Last Days to attack Israel. The nations involved in that attack, listed in Daniel 11, Ezekiel 38 and Psalm 83, all are aligned under the Islamic banner.

Benazir Bhutto's assassination does indeed help to set the stage for Bible prophecy to be fulfilled.

Pilgrims stranded in standoff with Egypt
JPost staff and AP , THE JERUSALEM POST Dec. 29, 2007

Nearly two thousand Palestinian pilgrims returning from Mecca were stranded in the Red Sea on Saturday after refusing to sign an agreement with Egyptian authorities to re-enter the Gaza Strip through the Kerem Shalom Crossing.

Among the pilgrims were senior Hamas operatives, several of whom are wanted by Israel, Israel Radio reported. Fearing arrest once they arrived at the Israeli-controlled Kerem Shalom Crossing, the Hamas members insisted on returning to Gaza via Rafah Crossing, which is not under Israel's control.

The pilgrims had sailed to the port city of Nuweiba on the Sinai Peninsula from Jordan's Aqaba Port but the Egyptians were stopping them from disembarking.

Hamas said there were a total of 1,900 pilgrims who had been waiting since Friday in the Red Sea.

The Palestinians were refusing to accept food or medicines until they received permission to use Rafah and some even threatened to set the ferries on fire.

Israel filed a complaint with Cairo after Egypt allowed the Palestinians to pass through Rafah on their way to Mecca and after Defense Minister Ehud Barak's recent visit to Egypt, Israeli officials said the Egyptians agreed to have the pilgrims use Kerem Shalom Crossing on there way back to Gaza.

IDF intelligence estimates released on December 5 indicated that up to a couple of dozen Hamas terrorists were among the so-called pilgrims Egypt allowed out of the Gaza Strip. In recent years, hundreds of Hamas terrorists have traveled abroad to Iran and Lebanon for military training, and officials said it was possible that these terrorists would do the same.

The IDF also fears that if the pilgrims are allowed to return to Gaza through Rafah they might smuggle millions of dollars to Hamas.

Senior Palestinian officials dismissed Israel's concerns, saying the Egyptians could search the pilgrims for smuggled cash.

"Israelis raise trivial issues and complicate things to cover up criticism over continued construction of settlements," said Mohammed Sobeih, the Arab League's undersecretary general.

The standoff angered Hamas, who said Egypt has a responsibility to bring the pilgrims back to Gaza as quickly as possible.

Some 5,000 people waving Palestinian and Hamas flags gathered on the Gaza side of the border with Egypt on Saturday and demanded the pilgrims be allowed to enter.

"We won't accept any excuse for preventing the pilgrims from returning," read a banner carried by one of the protesters.

Egyptian riot police arrived and mounted a machine gun on a building overlooking the corridor separating Egypt from Gaza. Hamas security positioned themselves between the protesters and the border gate.

In Gaza late Friday, angry Hamas loyalists fired their guns in the air and lobbed sound bombs in protest of Egypt's actions. The rioting was quickly quelled by Hamas security.

Hamas government spokesman Taher Nunu said Saturday that 1,900 pilgrims are caught in limbo at sea and urged Egypt "to urgently end their plight."

"We in the government and the people refuse to use (the Israeli) crossing. The pilgrims have the right to return the same way they exited," he said.

Hamas lawmaker Yehia Moussa said Egypt has a moral obligation to bring the pilgrims back home.

"We demand an immediate end to the situation before we get to popular reactions with undesired consequences," he said.

Moussa said it was not a threat, but "the public has the right to protest and revolt against the closure."

Pilgrims stranded in standoff with Egypt (http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?cid=1198517236823&pagename=JPost%2FJPArticle%2FPrinter)

Hamas urges Egypt to open Gaza border to pilgrims

Fearing Israel will arrest wanted militants making their way through with Muslim pilgrims returning from Mecca, Hamas demands more than 2,000 stranded Palestinians be allowed to return to Gaza through Rafah crossing

News Agencies
Published: 12.29.07, 17:44
Israel News

Hamas Islamists called on Egypt on Saturday to open its shuttered border crossing with the Gaza Strip to let more than 2,000 Palestinians return to their Gaza homes from the annual haj pilgrimage in Mecca.

Hamas, which controls Gaza, is demanding that Egypt reopen the Rafah crossing to allow the pilgrims to pass directly into the coastal territory rather than force them to pass through Israeli border posts first.

Hamas fears Israel will arrest wanted militants among the pilgrims.

Hamas officials estimated that 2,200 Gaza pilgrims were stranded on ships at an Egyptian port on the Red Sea.

Israel believes some of the militants may be carrying money for Hamas and other groups.

"We are aware of the Israeli and American pressures on Egypt, and we urge Egypt to reject these pressures and to allow the pilgrims a safe return through Rafah," Hamas official Sami Abu Zuhri told a news conference.

Hamas said a 62-year-old woman who fell ill died aboard one of the ships, which have been stranded for a second day.

Abu Zuhri said the Gaza pilgrims have rejected Egyptian demands that they agree to return through Israeli-controlled crossings.

Egyptian officials had no immediate comment.

Israel and the United States are pressing Egypt to do more to prevent the smuggling of guns, explosives and funds into the Gaza Strip.

Egypt has rejected Israeli complaints about the smuggling, accusing Israel of trying to distract attention from settlement.

In mid-December, Israel allowed hundreds of Palestinians from Gaza to cross Israeli territory on their way to the annual haj pilgrimage.

Earlier in the month, about 2,200 pilgrims heading for Mecca crossed from Gaza into Egypt through Rafah.

Hamas urges Egypt to open Gaza border to pilgrims (http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-3487969,00.html)

Russia Plans Increased Arms Exports to Iran, Others
By Sergei Blagov
CNSNews.com Correspondent
December 28, 2007

Moscow (CNSNews.com) - In the latest sign that Moscow is keen to expand its arms exports to Iran despite Western objections, Russia reportedly has agreed to supply the Islamic republic with air defense systems.

Iranian Defense Minister Mostafa Najjar said on Wednesday that Russia would sell Iran the S300 missile system, but he did not disclose a delivery date.

On Friday, the Russian agency that oversees Russia's military exports issued a statement denying that any such sale would take place.

"The question of deliveries of S-300 systems to Iran, which has now arisen in the mass media, is not currently taking place, is not being considered and is not being discussed at this time with the Iranian side," the agency said.

White House spokesman Scott Stanzel said the administration had "ongoing concerns about the prospective sale of such weapons to Iran and other countries of concern."

According to Russian missile makers, the S300 can shoot down combat aircraft as well as cruise and ballistic missiles.

The S300 PMU1 system can engage targets flying as low as 10 meters off the ground at a range of up to 150 kilometers, while the PMU2 variant has a range of 200 kilometers.

The S300 is a continuation of the earlier generation S75 surface-to-air (SAM) missile. Between 1965 and 1972, the Soviet Union supplied nearly 8,000 SAMs to North Vietnam.

Washington repeatedly has urged Moscow to cut military sales to Iran, to little avail. Earlier this year, Russia delivered 29 TOR-M1 air defense missile systems worth $700 million. The S300's capability is considered to be far superior to that of the TOR-M1 system.

Among post-Soviet countries, only Belarus and Kazakhstan (aside from Russia) have the S300 systems. Moscow also has sold them to China as well as to Vietnam and Cyprus.

The Kremlin has been prioritizing arms exports as both a foreign policy tool and for economic benefit. China, India, Venezuela and Iran are among Moscow's top clients.

On Monday, leading presidential election candidate Dmitry Medvedev announced that the country's arms exports were estimated to exceed $7 billion this year, up from $6.5 billion in 2006.

Russia is currently reported to be haggling with both China and India - its top military hardware buyers - over prices.

China and India have threatened to stop purchases if Russia does not stop raising prices on already-signed arms contracts.

New Delhi is also unhappy about Russia's sale of jet engines for Chinese-made fighters to be sold to Pakistan, India's long-standing rival.

Russia Plans Increased Arms Exports to Iran, Others (http://www.cnsnews.com/ViewForeignBureaus.asp?Page=/ForeignBureaus/archive/200712/INT20071228f.html)

US, Israel on 'same page' on Iran
Herb Keinon , THE JERUSALEM POST Jan. 13, 2008

Israel and the US are "on the same page" regarding the gravity of the Iranian nuclear threat and their commitment to thwart it, Prime Minister Ehud Olmert's spokesman Mark Regev said Saturday night.

Regev's comments come amid Israeli concern that last month's US National Intelligence Estimate, which stated that Iran stopped its nuclear weapons program in 2003, had placed Jerusalem and Washington at odds over the threat.

US officials have said repeatedly that one of the main purposes of President George W. Bush's current visit to the region was to assure the US's Sunni allies of Washington's commitment to their security in light of the NIE estimate, which seemed to take a military option against Iran off the table.

Bush left Ben-Gurion Airport on Friday afternoon, after a 48-hour visit to Israel and the Palestinian Authority, and went to Kuwait and then Bahrain. He will also visit the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia and Egypt before returning to Washington on Wednesday.

Olmert is expected to brief the cabinet Sunday on the Bush visit.

While the Israeli-Palestinian track dominated the public aspect of Bush's visit here, the Iranian issue played a dominant role in the private conversations between Olmert and the US president.

"We have no doubt that the US and Israel are on the same page," Regev said. "Both countries see the gravity of the threat that a nuclear armed Iran poses - and both are committed to preventing Iranian proliferation."

Regev, without confirming that Israel presented Bush with any new intelligence information, said the discussions "enhanced" the two countries understanding of the situation.

In Kuwait, meanwhile, Bush blasted Teheran for its destabilizing role in Iraq.

"Iran's role in fomenting violence has been exposed," he said. "Iranian agents are in our custody, and we are learning more about how Iran has supported extremist groups with training and lethal aid."

Regev said Iran was one of three main issues that Bush and Olmert discussed, the others being the US-Israeli bilateral relationship, and the Israeli-Palestinian track.

Regarding the US-Israel relationship, Regev said it was clear from the discussions that Bush "is committed to Israel's qualitative [military] edge."

Regev said he did not know whether the US's proposed $20 billion weapons deal to Saudi Arabia came up in the talks.

Bush is expected to notify the Saudis when he visits Riyadh on Tuesday that he is pushing through with the deal, which includes Joint Direct Attack Munitions, commonly referred to as "smart bombs."

In recent months the US and Israel have held discussions about Israel purchasing a more advanced smart bomb model than the one being provided the Saudis.

On the Israeli-Palestinian track, Regev said that Bush's statement Thursday in which he laid out the basic parameters of an Israeli-Palestinian settlement were acceptable to Israel and "in accordance with the understandings between us and the US."

Regev said Israel believed the statement formed a "positive conceptual framework for our ongoing discussions with the Palestinians."

Bush called for a "viable, contiguous, sovereign, and independent" Palestinian state alongside an Israel with "secure, recognized and defensible borders."

He specified the need for modifications of the 1967 lines and indicated a rejection of the Palestinian demand for a "right of return" to Israel for Palestinian refugees.

Bilateral negotiations on the core issues - refugees, settlements and borders - are expected to begin early this week between Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni and PA negotiator Ahmed Qurei. The decision to start these negotiations was made a day before Bush arrived in Israel on Wednesday.

The fact that the two sides decided that Livni and Qurei would begin core issue negotiations just prior to Bush's arrival was not lost on the administration, with US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice telling reporters on the way to Kuwait Friday that not only would Bush be coming back to Israel in May to participate in the 60th Independence Day celebrations, but also because this would "be another opportunity to do what he did here, which was to really give momentum to the process that Prime Minister Olmert and President Abbas are engaged in."

"It's always good to have the parties know that the president is coming; that really gives them an incentive to move forward," she said. "I think you saw that this time, because when it was clear that he was coming, they met, they got their committees started, they had a very good discussion, they agreed to the biweekly meetings [between Abbas and Olmert] that they're going to have."

Rice characterized Bush's statement Thursday as "essentially a summary. Many of these positions have been taken by the United States before, but I think it's the first time the president has put it together in this codified, coherent way."

She said that as the bilateral process moved forward, the US wanted to see the Arab states do more and more to be supportive of the process, which is something that Bush will be discussing with the Arab states he is now visiting.

But she cautioned against expecting any dramatic progress in this area.

"Some of this will happen over time," she said. "You know, there isn't going to be a blinding flash in any of this - not on this trip, not on the next trip. But this is a process that's moving forward."

US, Israel on 'same page' on Iran (http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?cid=1199964905158&pagename=JPost%2FJPArticle%2FPrinter)

Quote from: DreamWeaver on January 13, 2008, 11:07:23 PM

Being on the same page means that the Israelis and Bush probably agree that Iran has not stopped its weapons program, or started it again shortly after the 2003 date, something the NIE report didn't mention.

The Israelis need to be very vigilant and not rely on anyone other than themselves, in case they have to act against Iran alone. The only one they should rely on right now is GOD!! Unfortunately I don't think they are ready to do that, as that happens later in Tribulation.

Brother, you are 100% correct. Israel will NOT cry out to GOD and turn toward HIM until they feel they are about to be annihilated from the face of the earth. That time will come, and the fear will be an actual reality. CHRIST HIMSELF will, in FACT, be the Literal MESSIAH of Israel! HE will rescue them from the jaws of extinction and Restore Israel, exactly as HE has promised. CHRIST will NOT be denied HIS Crown and Throne!

Love In Christ,
Tom

Ezekiel 7:25-27 NASB
'When anguish comes, they will seek peace, but there will be none. 'Disaster will come upon disaster and rumor will be added to rumor; then they will seek a vision from a prophet, but the law will be lost from the priest and counsel from the elders. 'The king will mourn, the prince will be clothed with horror, and the hands of the people of the land will tremble. According to their conduct I will deal with them, and by their judgments I will judge them. And they will know that I am the LORD.'"

Isaiah 65:17-25 NASB
"For behold, I create new heavens and a new earth; And the former things will not be remembered or come to mind. "But be glad and rejoice forever in what I create; For behold, I create Jerusalem for rejoicing And her people for gladness. "I will also rejoice in Jerusalem and be glad in My people; And there will no longer be heard in her The voice of weeping and the sound of crying. "No longer will there be in it an infant who lives but a few days, Or an old man who does not live out his days; For the youth will die at the age of one hundred And the one who does not reach the age of one hundred Will be thought accursed. "They will build houses and inhabit them; They will also plant vineyards and eat their fruit. "They will not build and another inhabit, They will not plant and another eat; For as the lifetime of a tree, so will be the days of My people, And My chosen ones will wear out the work of their hands. "They will not labor in vain, Or bear children for calamity; For they are the offspring of those blessed by the LORD, And their descendants with them. "It will also come to pass that before they call, I will answer; and while they are still speaking, I will hear. "The wolf and the lamb will graze together, and the lion will eat straw like the ox; and dust will be the serpent's food. They will do no evil or harm in all My holy mountain," says the LORD.

90 dead in Pakistan gunbattles

From CNN's Thomas Evans

(CNN) -- Pakistani military forces clashed Friday with Islamic militants in mountainous northwest Pakistan, in battles that left at least 90 militants dead and four military personnel wounded, a military spokesman told CNN.

The militants gathered around the Ladha Fort in South Waziristan -- a tribal territory in Pakistan -- early Friday morning, and fired rockets into the fort, according to military spokesman Lt. Col. Baseer Haider Malik.

Malik said the military used artillery and small arms fire to disperse them, killing 20 to 30 militants.

In a separate incident elsewhere in South Waziristan, militants attacked a convoy of security forces with rockets and small arms fire, Malik said. The Pakistani forces retaliated with rockets and small arms fire, killing 50 to 60 militants, Malik said.

Four security personnel were wounded in the hour-long fight, Malik said, and two army vehicles were damaged.

South Waziristan is said to be a stronghold of Taliban warlord Baitullah Mehsud -- the man the Pakistani government has named a prime suspect in the December 27 assassination of former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto.

Pakistan has attempted to crack down on the largely lawless tribal areas along the Afghan border under U.S. pressure. A U.S.-led invasion overthrew the Taliban after al Qaeda's September 11, 2001, attacks on New York and Washington, but American and allied troops are now battling a resurgence of the fundamentalist Islamic militia in Afghanistan's south.

Earlier this week, militants abandoned another fort in South Waziristan they overran during a pitched battle Wednesday, Maj. Gen. Athar Abbas, a military spokesman, said. The militants left later that day without another firefight with Pakistani forces, Abbas told CNN.

The battle for the control of the border fort killed at least seven of 40 Pakistani troops stationed there. Fifteen others fled and 18 border guards were initially reported missing.

Abbas said five of the missing guards were apparently located in a nearby village, but his men had not yet confirmed the report.

The militants breached the walls of the colonial-era outpost along the Afghan border with explosives and seized the fort after a firefight that lasted about 12 hours, Malik said.

An estimated 250 to 300 or more fighters armed with rifles and rocket-propelled grenades took part in the Wednesday assault against a garrison of 40 members of Pakistan's paramilitary Frontier Corps, Malik said.

90 dead in Pakistan gunbattles (http://edition.cnn.com/2008/WORLD/asiapcf/01/18/pakistan.militants/)
~~~~~~~~

As the wheels of time turn, the mid-east is coming to Prophecy as the Bible says. Also lets not forget the Mad Hatter of Iran and his latest threats of a mid-east volcano......

Russia Delivers Third Consignment Of Nuclear Fuel For Iran

Foreign affairs minister meets with Russia's Lavrov in Moscow, slams shipments of fuel to Bushehr nuclear plant despite Tehran's refusal to stop enriching uranium. Livni also defends Israel's response to Qassam rocket attacks: 'Unlike terrorists, the IDF does not aim its weapons towards women, the elderly and children'

Roni Sofer
Published: 01.17.08, 19:42
Israel News

Foreign Affairs Minister Tzipi Livni met with Russian counterpart Sergey Lavrov on Thursday in Moscow, the two discussed the tightening of sanctions on Iran and the incessant Qassam rocket fire towards Israel from Hamas-controlled Gaza.

The three-hour meeting was held ahead of an upcoming round of talks between the five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council and Germany, scheduled for late January.

Speaking at the Russian Foreign Ministry's Diplomatic Academy, Livni said, ''I would like to see the translation of the understanding that the world cannot afford an Iran with nuclear weapons into more-effective sanctions at the United Nations Security Council.''

But though Lavrov assured that Moscow was partaking in the effort to prevent Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons, Livni told her colleague that it is inconceivable for Russia to be shipping nuclear fuel to Iran while Tehran continued to enrich uranium.

Livni told the audience that with the shipment of Russian nuclear fuel ''the resumption of enrichment could serve only military purposes.''

''Iran's ideology borders on madness,'' she said. ''It could have a domino effect on other states in the region that would strive to get nuclear technologies.''

She later told reporters that Israel and the international community stood for resolving the issue through sanctions and cooperation: ''We have discussed this issue at our talks today.''

Lavrov said that Moscow continues to believe the International Atomic Energy Agency should play the primary role in resolving the standoff and that punitive UN sanctions were a bad idea. He said Russia was committed to a ''political-diplomatic settlement'' of the dispute.

Lavrov condemned the continuing rocket attacks against Israel's south: "Women, children and the elderly should not be living under the threat of missiles. This must stop."

Livni said in response that while terrorists "seek out women, the elderly and children," the IDF "only aims its weapons towards terrorists."

Russia Delivers Third Consignment Of Nuclear Fuel For Iran (http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-3495713,00.html)

Russia revives military boast of Soviet days

January 18, 2008

By David R. Sands - Reviving yet another iconic image from Soviet days, Russia's military announced plans to stage a parade of ballistic missiles, tanks and platoons of soldiers this May through the Kremlin's Red Square.

The display of military hardware, the first of its kind since 1990, will be held May 9, the day Russians mark the victory over Germany in World War II, and could coincide with the inauguration of Dmitry Medvedev, close aide to outgoing President Vladimir Putin, as Russia's new leader.

Similar displays, typically held May 1, were a high point of the old Soviet calendar, with leaders such as Josef Stalin and other top Communist Party figures perched on the reviewing stand above Lenin's Tomb to witness the country's military prowess and send a message to the Soviet Union's Cold War adversaries.

The announcement comes at a time of rising tension between Russia and the West, on issues ranging from a planned U.S. missile defense system in Eastern Europe, to human rights to the future of Serbia's Kosovo province. Mr. Putin also has struggled to rebuild Russia's military forces, which deteriorated badly in the wake of the Soviet Union's collapse.

"You can't teach an old imperial bear new tricks," said Ariel Cohen, a Russian specialist at the Heritage Foundation. "The current regime's craving for international prestige is as high as the insecurity of its rulers."

British Foreign Secretary David Miliband yesterday accused Moscow of following the old, hostile Soviet pattern in an escalating dispute over Russia's order that two British cultural outreach offices in Moscow and St. Petersburg be shut down. Russia claims the centers are operating illegally, but Mr. Miliband said Russian authorities were trying to intimidate the British employees.

"We saw similar actions during the Cold War, but frankly thought they had been put behind us," Mr. Miliband told the House of Commons.

According to Russia's Interfax news agency, the May 9 parade lineup will include the newest version of the Topol-M SS-27 intercontinental ballistic missile, armored personnel carriers, tanks, and 6,000 troops decked out in a newly designed uniform.

Mr. Putin has made restoring Russian national pride and reclaiming some of its lost international influence central to his presidency.

He revived a reworked version of the old Soviet anthem as Russia's new national anthem and once called the collapse of the old Soviet empire "the greatest geopolitical catastrophe of the 20th century."

With Mr. Putin's endorsement, Mr. Medvedev is expected to win the March 2 presidential vote handily. He already asked Mr. Putin to serve as his prime minister.

The official May Day parades were discontinued after 1990. In recent years, the day has been marked in Moscow and other cities primarily by protest marches by the declining Communist Party and by right-wing nationalist parties.

President Boris Yeltsin began staging military parades — without the weaponry — through Red Square in 1995, the first one marking the 60th anniversary of the Allied victory in Europe.

Pavel Felgenhauer, a Russian military analyst for the Washington-based Jamestown Foundation, said the revived display is one of a number of recent symbolic moves by the country's military. They include the resumption of strategic bomber patrol flights over the Atlantic and Pacific in August and plans for major naval exercises in the Mediterranean for the first time since 1991.

Mr. Felgenhauer noted that the traditional route for the May parade must now be altered in part because of the construction of a new shopping mall.

"One can only hope that ... no ancient building will collapse as tanks and ICBMs roll into central Moscow to serve the vanity of Russia's leaders," he said.

Russia revives military boast of Soviet days (http://www.washingtontimes.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080118/FOREIGN/804771680/1001&template=printart)

Nasrallah tells Beirut crowd Hezbollah has the body parts of IDF soldiers
By Fadi Eyadat and Jack Khoury, Haaretz Correspondents, News Agencies and Haaretz Service
19/01/2008

Hezbollah leader Sheik Hassan Nasrallah said on Saturday his group possessed body parts of Israel Defense Forces soldiers left on southern Lebanon's battlefields during the Second Lebanon War.

Nasrallah addressed a crowd of followers in southern Beirut during a rally to mark the Shi'ite Ashoura festival.

"Oh Zionists, your army is lying to you... your army has left the body parts of your soldiers in our villages and fields," Nasrallah said.

"Our mujahideen used to fight these Zionists, killing them and collecting their body parts. I am not talking about regular body parts. I tell the Israelis, we have the heads of your soldiers, we have hands, we have legs," he added.

The last time Nasrallah appeared in public was in September 2006 at a victory rally marking the end of the month-long war between Israel and the militant Shi'ite group. Since then, he has only addressed his supporters through video-links or on television.

Karnit Goldwasser, whose husband Ehud was kidnapped by Hezbollah militants in the cross-border raid that sparked last summer's war, said Nasrallah's speech constituted nothing new. "From our perspective, he hasn't said anything," she said.

Ayal Regev, whose brother Eldad was kidnapped along with Goldwasser, said that "by our estimation, Nasrallah did not address the abducted soldiers... It's all part of the psychological war he is carrying out."

In his speech Saturday, Nasrallah vowed that Lebanon would not accept a "surrenderist" peace plan with Israel, declaring the only way was "resistance."

"I announce that our forces are on full alert to confront any possible war against Lebanon," he said.

"If Israel carries out any new aggression against us, we promise to retaliate in a war that will change the whole map of the region," Nasrallah warned.

Referring to recent violence in the Gaza Strip, Nasrallah said: "We will not accept this oppression against the people of Palestine. I call on the Arab nation to stand and back their resistance movement's military, and financially to confront [U.S. President George W.] Bush's massacre of the people of Gaza."

Footage broadcast on Hezbollah's al-Manar television and other stations carried pictures of the black-turbaned Nasrallah surrounded by a sea of people.

Hezbollah supporters marched in procession with banners proclaiming: "We will not be humiliated". They also blocked suburban roads, chanting "death to America, death to Israel."

"Oh God protect Nasrallah," the huge crowd chanted. Veiled women wept as the Hezbollah leader walked among them, while men raised their fists chanting, "Nasrallah is our leader."

The Ashoura festival marks the death of Imam Hussein, the Prophet Mohammed's grandson, who died in a battle in 680 against the leader of what became the Sunni branch of Islam. The battle took place in Karbala, which is located in present-day Iraq.

Nasrallah further denounced Bush's tour to the Middle East last week as "devilish."

In remarks on Lebanon's political crisis, Nasrallah reiterated that the opposition, which is led by his movement, backs the Arab Legaue plan.

The three-point plan is for the election of army chief General Michel Suleiman as president, a national unity government in which no one party has veto power and the adoption of a new electoral law.

Although the ruling coalition has given the plan its full backing, Hezbollah insists that the opposition be granted one-third of the seats in a new government so it can have veto power.

Everyone - the majority and the opposition - should have a fair share in ruling the country, Nasrallah said, adding: "If someone in Lebanon is looking to internationalize the Lebanese crisis, we tell them 'you are dreaming.' We will not accept an American-Zionist solution for our political crisis."

Lebanese lawmakers are scheduled to meet again on Monday to try and elect a president, but there is expectaion the parliamentary session will meet the same fate as the 12 previous ones, and be postponed.

Arab League chief Amr Mussa, who arrived in the Syrian capital from Beirut on Friday, reported progress in negotiations between the pro- and anti-Syrian factions over the deadlock.

Nasrallah tells Beirut crowd Hezbollah has the body parts of IDF soldiers (http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/946071.html)

Russia Could Use Nuclear Weapons as Preventive Measure to Thwart Major Threat, Official Says

Saturday , January 19, 2008

AP
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MOSCOW —
Russia's military chief of staff said Saturday that Moscow could use nuclear weapons in preventive strikes in case of a major threat, the latest aggressive remarks from increasingly assertive Russian authorities.

"We have no plans to attack anyone, but we consider it necessary for all our partners in the world community to clearly understand ... that to defend the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Russia and its allies, military forces will be used, including preventively, including with the use of nuclear weapons," Gen. Yuri Baluyevsky said.

The comments from the hawkish Baluyevsky did not appear to mark a policy shift for Russia, whose leaders have stressed the need to maintain a powerful nuclear deterrent and reserved the right to carry out preventive strikes to counter existential threats. But in most of their public remarks about preventive strikes, President Vladimir Putin and other officials have not specifically mentioned the use of nuclear weapons.

Baluyevsky's remarks came at a time of increasingly strained relations between Moscow and the West, which are at odds over a range of issues and are embroiled in persistent disputes over U.S. plans for missile defense facilities in former Soviet satellite states that have joined NATO as well as alliance members' refusal to ratify an updated European conventional arms treaty.

Like most saber-rattling by Putin and other Russian officials, the chief of staff's remarks appeared aimed at least in part at the United States, which Moscow accuses of endangering global security through aggressive actions such as the invasion of Iraq.

Putin, who has sought to boost his popularity at home and win support abroad with his vocal criticism of U.S. foreign policy, has said that Russia opposes the use of preventive military attacks but reserves the right to carry them out because other countries do so.

Baluyevsky identified no specific nations or forces that threaten Russia. According to the ITAR-Tass news agency, however, he said threats to global security include "the striving by a number of countries for hegemony on a regional and global level" — a clear reference to the United States — and terrorism.

With Russian officials jockeying for position ahead of the March 2 presidential election, Baluyevsky's remarks at a military conference in Moscow may also have been aimed in part at a domestic audience.

Putin is barred from seeking a third term but has endorsed protege Dmitry Medvedev as his favored successor and has said he will become prime minister in the event of Medvedev's election, which is virtually assured given Putin's support and the Kremlin's control over electoral politics.

Russia Could Use Nuclear Weapons as Preventive Measure to Thwart Major Threat, Official Says (http://www.foxnews.com/printer_friendly_story/0,3566,324006,00.html)
~~~~~~~~

Other sourses:

Russia: We may use nukes if threatened (http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?cid=1200572490414&pagename=JPost%2FJPArticle%2FPrinter)

Quote from: DreamWeaver on January 19, 2008, 02:15:31 PM

WATCH THE WATERS "SEAS"

Russia revives military boast of Soviet days

Reviving yet another iconic image from Soviet days, Russia's military announced plans to stage a parade of ballistic missiles, tanks and platoons of soldiers this May through the Kremlin's Red Square.

The display of military hardware, the first of its kind since 1990, will be held May 9, the day Russians mark the victory over Germany in World War II, and could coincide with the inauguration of Dmitry Medvedev, close aide to outgoing President Vladimir Putin, as Russia's new leader.

Similar displays, typically held May 1, were a high point of the old Soviet calendar, with leaders such as Josef Stalin and other top Communist Party figures perched on the reviewing stand above Lenin's Tomb to witness the country's military prowess and send a message to the Soviet Union's Cold War adversaries.

The announcement comes at a time of rising tension between Russia and the West, on issues ranging from a planned U.S. missile defense system in Eastern Europe, to human rights to the future of Serbia's Kosovo province. Mr. Putin also has struggled to rebuild Russia's military forces, which deteriorated badly in the wake of the Soviet Union's collapse.

"You can't teach an old imperial bear new tricks," said Ariel Cohen, a Russian specialist at the Heritage Foundation. "The current regime's craving for international prestige is as high as the insecurity of its rulers."

British Foreign Secretary David Miliband yesterday accused Moscow of following the old, hostile Soviet pattern in an escalating dispute over Russia's order that two British cultural outreach offices in Moscow and St. Petersburg be shut down. Russia claims the centers are operating illegally, but Mr. Miliband said Russian authorities were trying to intimidate the British employees.

"We saw similar actions during the Cold War, but frankly thought they had been put behind us," Mr. Miliband told the House of Commons.

According to Russia's Interfax news agency, the May 9 parade lineup will include the newest version of the Topol-M SS-27 intercontinental ballistic missile, armored personnel carriers, tanks, and 6,000 troops decked out in a newly designed uniform.

Mr. Putin has made restoring Russian national pride and reclaiming some of its lost international influence central to his presidency.

He revived a reworked version of the old Soviet anthem as Russia's new national anthem and once called the collapse of the old Soviet empire "the greatest geopolitical catastrophe of the 20th century."

With Mr. Putin's endorsement, Mr. Medvedev is expected to win the March 2 presidential vote handily. He already asked Mr. Putin to serve as his prime minister.

The official May Day parades were discontinued after 1990. In recent years, the day has been marked in Moscow and other cities primarily by protest marches by the declining Communist Party and by right-wing nationalist parties.

President Boris Yeltsin began staging military parades — without the weaponry — through Red Square in 1995, the first one marking the 60th anniversary of the Allied victory in Europe.

Pavel Felgenhauer, a Russian military analyst for the Washington-based Jamestown Foundation, said the revived display is one of a number of recent symbolic moves by the country's military. They include the resumption of strategic bomber patrol flights over the Atlantic and Pacific in August and plans for major naval exercises in the Mediterranean for the first time since 1991.

Mr. Felgenhauer noted that the traditional route for the May parade must now be altered in part because of the construction of a new shopping mall.

"One can only hope that ... no ancient building will collapse as tanks and ICBMs roll into central Moscow to serve the vanity of Russia's leaders," he said.

Russia warns of 'preventative' nuke strike
Military chief says Moscow would use atomic weapons to protect itself, allies

Russia's military chief of staff said Saturday that Moscow could use nuclear weapons in preventive strikes to protect itself and its allies, the latest aggressive remarks from increasingly assertive Russian authorities.

Gen. Yuri Baluyevsky's comment did not mark a policy shift, military analysts said. Amid disputes with the West over security issues, it may have been meant as a warning that Russia is prepared to use its nuclear might.

"We do not intend to attack anyone, but we consider it necessary for all our partners in the world community to clearly understand ... that to defend the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Russia and its allies, military forces will be used, including preventively, including with the use of nuclear weapons," Baluyevsky said at a military conference in a remark broadcast on state-run cable channel Vesti-24.

According to the state-run news agency RIA-Novosti, Baluyevsky added that Russia would use nuclear weapons and carry out preventive strikes only in accordance with Russia's military doctrine.

The military doctrine adopted in 2000 says Russia may use nuclear weapons to counter a nuclear attack on Russia or an ally, or a large-scale conventional attack that poses a critical risk to Russia's security.

Retired Gen. Vladimir Dvorkin, formerly a top arms control expert with the Russian Defense Ministry, said he saw "nothing new" in Baluyevsky's statement. "He was restating the doctrine in his own words," Dvorkin said.

Moscow-based military analyst Alexander Golts said that when Russia broke with stated Soviet-era policy in the 2000 doctrine and declared it could use nuclear weapons first against an aggressor, it reflected the decline of Russia's conventional forces in the decade following the 1991 Soviet collapse.

"Baluyevsky's statement means that, as before, we cannot count on our conventional forces to counter aggression," Golts told Ekho Moskvy radio. "It means that as before, the main factor in containing aggression against Russia is nuclear weapons."

Putin and other Russian officials have stressed the need to maintain a powerful nuclear deterrent and reserved the right to carry out preventive strikes. But in most of their public remarks on preventive strikes, Russian officials have not specifically mentioned nuclear weapons.

Baluyevsky spoke amid persistent disputes between Moscow and the West over issues including U.S. plans for missile defense facilities in former Soviet satellites, NATO members' refusal to ratify an updated European conventional arms treaty, and Kosovo's bid for independence from Serbia.

Like Golts, Moscow-based military analyst Pavel Felgenhauer said Russia plays up its nuclear deterrent because of its weakness in terms of conventional arms. "We threaten the West that in any kind of serious conflict, we'll go nuclear almost immediately," he said.

But in the absence of a real threat from the West, he said, "It's just talk."

Russian nuclear fuel arrives in Iran

Sun Jan 20, 5:43 AM ET

TEHRAN, Iran - A fourth Russian shipment of nuclear fuel arrived in Iran on Sunday, destined for a power plant being constructed in the southern port of Bushehr, the official Islamic Republic News Agency reported.

The report said 11 tons of fuel arrived at the Bushehr power plant. Iran received its third Russian shipment on Friday.

Russia has reportedly pledged to give Iran a total of 85 tons of fuel for the plant.

The remainder of the fuel, about 40 tons, was scheduled to arrive in four separate shipments in the coming months, the report said.

Iran received its first two shipments of nuclear fuel from Russia in December — after months of disputes between the two countries, allegedly over delayed construction payments for the reactor.

Iran has said Bushehr, the country's first nuclear reactor, will begin operating in the summer of 2008, producing half of its 1,000 megawatt capacity of electricity.

Tehran heralded the first shipment as a victory, saying it proved its nuclear program was peaceful and not a cover for weapons development as the U.S. has claimed.

The United States and Russia have said the supply of nuclear fuel meant Iran had no need to continue its uranium enrichment program — a process that can provide fuel for a reactor or fissile material for a bomb. Iran has agreed with Russia to return the spent fuel to ensure it doesn't extract plutonium to build a bomb.

Iran insisted it would continue enriching uranium because it needed to provide fuel to a 300-megawatt light-water reactor it was building in the southwestern town of Darkhovin.

Iranian officials have said they plan to generate 20,000 megawatts of electricity through nuclear energy in the next two decades.

Russia's decision to begin shipping nuclear fuel to Iran followed a U.S. intelligence report released earlier this month that concluded Tehran had stopped its nuclear weapons program in late 2003 and had not resumed it since. Iran says it never had a weapons program.

Russian nuclear fuel arrives in Iran (http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080120/ap_on_re_mi_ea/iran_russia;_ylt=ArvKNpPTl8Zmum65i3W_9zMLewgF)

Senior Saudi prince offers Israel peace vision

Prince Turki al-Faisal, adviser to King Abdullah, says if Israel accepts Arab League plan and signs comprehensive peace, 'one can imagine the integration of Israel into the Arab geographical entity'

Reuters
Published: 01.20.08, 15:15 / Israel News

A senior Saudi royal has offered Israel a vision of broad cooperation with the Arab world and people-to-people contacts if it signs a peace treaty and withdraws from all occupied Arab territories.

In an interview with Reuters, Prince Turki al-Faisal, a former ambassador to the United States and Britain and adviser to King Abdullah, said Israel and the Arabs could cooperate in many areas including water, agriculture, science and education.

Asked what message he wanted to send to the Israeli public, he said: "The Arab world, by the Arab peace initiative, has crossed the Rubicon from hostility towards Israel to peace with Israel and has extended the hand of peace to Israel, and we await the Israelis picking up our hand and joining us in what inevitably will be beneficial for Israel and for the Arab world."

The 22-nation Arab League revived at a Riyadh summit last year a Saudi peace plan first adopted in 2002 offering Israel full normalisation of relations in return for full withdrawal from occupied Palestinian, Syrian and Lebanese land.

Israel shunned the offer then, at the height of a violent Palestinian uprising in the West Bank and Gaza Strip.

But it has expressed more interest since the United States launched a new drive for Israeli-Palestinian peace at Annapolis, Maryland, last November, aiming for an agreement this year.

Prince Turki, who was previously head of Saudi intelligence, said that if Israel accepted the Arab League plan and signed a comprehensive peace, "one can imagine the integration of Israel into the Arab geographical entity".

"One can imagine not just economic, political and diplomatic relations between Arabs and Israelis but also issues of education, scientific research, combating mutual threats to the inhabitants of this vast geographic area," he said.

'His remarks should encourage Israelis and Arabs'

His comments, on the sidelines of a conference on the Middle East and Europe staged by Germany's Bertelsmann Foundation think-tank, were some of the most far-reaching addressed to Israelis by a senior figure from Saudi Arabia.

The desert kingdom, home to Islam's holiest shrines, has no official relations with the Jewish state, although both are key allies of the United States in the region.

"Exchange visits by people of both Israel and the rest of the Arab countries would take place," Prince Turki said.

"We will start thinking of Israelis as Arab Jews rather than simply as Israelis," he said, noting that many Arabs historically saw the Israeli state as a European entity imposed on Arab land after World War Two.

Prince Turki, brother of Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Saud al-Faisal, holds no official position now but heads the King Faisal Centre for Research and Islamic Studies in Riyadh.

He said Israel could expect some benefits on the way to signing a treaty and making a full withdrawal, noting that after the 1993 Oslo interim accords with the Palestine Liberation Organisation, regional cooperation had begun and the Jewish state had achieved representation in several Arab states.

Those Israeli advances were reversed after the outbreak of the second Palestinian uprising in 2000.

Israel was wary of the Arab League plan partly because it would entail handing back the Syrian Golan Heights captured in the 1967 Middle East war, as well as re-dividing Jerusalem, of which Israel annexed the captured Arab eastern part in 1967.

But an Israeli participant at the conference, Yossi Alpher, co-editor of the Bitter Lemons Israeli-Palestinian Web site and a former senior intelligence official, welcomed the comments.

"I was delighted to hear Prince Turki's description of the comprehensive nature of normalisation as he envisages it within the framework of the Arab peace initiative," Alpher said.

"His remarks should encourage us Israelis and Arabs to deepen and broaden the discussion of ways to reach a comprehensive peace, implement the Arab peace initiative and reach the kind of cooperation that his highness described."

Alpher said he hoped that once there was a comprehensive peace, Israel's Arab neighbours would accept Israelis "as Jewish people living a sovereign life in our historic homeland" and not as "Arab Jews" or "European Jews"

Senior Saudi prince offers Israel peace vision (http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-3496543,00.html)

Russian energy deal adds to Europe fears
Moscow rushes to build, buy European pipelines, facilities, ports, companies

Sat., Jan. 26, 2008

MOSCOW - Russia expanded its growing European energy empire Friday, signing two more deals in a drive that is raising fears Moscow could use its vast oil and gas resources to meddle in the affairs of its neighbors.

Russia already supplies a quarter of Europe's natural gas and oil needs, and some Western leaders worry the growing dependence is giving the Kremlin a powerful geopolitical weapon.

Announcing the signing of two agreements with Serbia, Russian officials said the deal would make the poor Balkan nation an important hub for the distribution of Russian gas.

Moscow has been rushing to build or acquire European pipelines, storage facilities, ports and energy companies. But Russian government and corporate officials say the expansion is strictly a commercial effort that benefits both sides and ensures Europe gets the energy it needs.

"This network will be long-lasting, reliable, highly efficient, and what is very important, help boost energy supplies to Serbia and the entire European continent," Russian President Vladimir Putin said after the deals were signed.

Skeptics in Washington and some European capitals say Russia has already used its energy clout as a coercive tool of diplomacy. The U.S. has led an effort to limit its inroads — in part by planning new energy pipelines that would bypass Russian territory.

An energy powerhouse
But there are doubts the alternative pipelines will ever be built, and many analysts say the European Union's quest for energy independence has fizzled.

"I think you can now say that Russia has either won the war or is very close to winning the war" over gas supplies, said Chris Weafer, chief strategist at UralSib, a Russian investment bank. "Because the EU, which sought non-Russian import routes and non-Russian gas supplies, has failed to achieve anything."

He said fast action by Russia to increase its energy deals has made it difficult for Western countries to organize the huge financial investment needed for rival pipelines.

"The Kremlin moved much more quickly and much more decisively," Weafer said.

Russia is an energy superpower. It is the biggest exporter of natural gas, the second largest exporter of oil after Saudi Arabia and has almost a third of the world's proven natural gas reserves. Russia also is the main conduit for oil and gas shipped from the former Soviet republics of Central Asia.

Weafer said the Kremlin is simply applying an important lesson it learned from the end of the Cold War.

"They're not going to become a global superpower by military means," he said. "They will only achieve that status by economic means, and that is the focus now."

Gas expert: Russia is no threat
Some experts feel the anxieties about the Kremlin's intentions are overblown.

Jonathan Stern, director of gas research at the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, said Russia's role as an energy supplier does not threaten Europe.

What the continent faces, he said, is the looming threat of gas shortages as supplies plateau or even drop over the next few years in the face of escalating demand.

Stern and others say Russia's gas fields are rapidly being exhausted. There is a real question whether Russia will be able to meet its customers' demands starting around 2010, several experts warn.

"Where are we getting our gas from after then?" Stern said. "That's the problem."

The two agreements signed Friday, worth a total of $2.2 billion, call for construction of a major gas pipeline and storage facilities in Serbia and give the Russian gas monopoly, Gazprom, a majority stake in NIS, Serbia's state oil company.

"This agreement has huge strategic importance for Serbia," Serbian President Boris Tadic said. "It will strengthen Serbia's strategic positions in southeastern Europe, since it will serve as a transit point for gas supplies to the EU's southern flank."

The agreement follows a series of other energy deals that buttressed Russia's role as a crucial energy supplier to Europe.

Just last week, Bulgaria agreed to become a major hub for the South Stream project, a proposed 550-mile underwater pipeline from the southern Russian coast to the Black Sea's western shore. It is expected to cost more than $14.6 billion.

The West becomes worried
In December, Turkmenistan signed a deal with Moscow to build a pipeline that would increase shipments of gas to Russia by 700 billion cubic feet annually — more than the volume consumed by Belgium. That deal guarantees Russia a supply of gas to pump through South Stream.

Some in the West have worried about Russia's potential use of energy as a club after it threatened gas cutoffs to win agreements from several nations in recent years to accept big price increases.

Those pricing disputes with former Soviet countries, including Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia, came at times of political tensions.

Anxiety over Russia's huge role in Europe's energy market peaked in January 2006, when Russia cut gas supplies to Ukraine for 30 hours — shutting off 80 percent of Russian gas shipments to Europe in a pricing dispute. Moscow's relations with Ukraine have been tense since late 2004, when voters elected a pro-Western president.

To settle the dispute, Ukraine was forced to double the price it paid for gas. The deal also opened the door for Gazprom to gain a foothold in Ukraine's domestic energy industry, according to a U.S. Congressional Research Service study.

In the case of Moldova, the crisis ended with Gazprom nearly doubling gas prices and increasing its stake in Moldova's government-controlled pipeline company.

In October, Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice said the U.S. respects Russia's interests.

"But no interest is served if Russia uses its great wealth, its oil and gas wealth, as a political weapon, or that if it treats its independent neighbors as part of some old sphere of influence," she said.

Russian energy deal adds to Europe fears (http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/22848715/)

Russia bombers to test-fire missiles in Atlantic

By Guy Faulconbridge Tue Jan 22, 6:09 AM ET

MOSCOW (Reuters) - Russia on Tuesday sent two long-range bombers to the Bay of Biscay, off the French and Spanish Atlantic coasts, to test-fire missiles in what it billed as its biggest navy exercise in the area since Soviet times.

British and Norwegian Tornado and F-16 jets were escorting the Russian 'Blackjack' bombers, Interfax reported, quoting the Russian Air Force.

However, the French Defence Ministry spokesman said his country had been informed about the Russian exercises.

Firing missiles off the coastline of two members of the NATO military alliance is the latest in a series of Kremlin moves flexing Moscow's military muscle on the world stage.

The Russian bombers joined aircraft carriers, battleships and submarine hunters from the Northern and Black Sea fleets for the Atlantic exercises, which come as the country enters an election campaign to choose a successor to President Vladimir Putin.

"The air force is taking a very active part in the exercises of the navy's strike force in the Atlantic," Russia's air force said in a statement.

"Today, two strategic Tu-160 bombers departed for exercises in the Bay of Biscay, which ... will carry out a number of missions and will conduct tactical missile launches," it said.

Putin, widely popular as his second four-year term draws to a close, has sought to use such moves to revive domestic and international respect for Russia's armed forces which were shattered by the chaos of the 1990s.

A former KGB lieutenant-colonel, Putin has boosted military spending, renewed long-range bomber missions and approved a plan to upgrade Russia's nuclear attack forces, which he said was needed after NATO built up its forces close to Russia's borders.

But some analysts note that while the sabre rattling is popular at home, Russian military spending in absolute terms is substantially lower than that of China, Britain or France and less than a tenth of that of the United States.

Discipline is still a major problem for Russia's armed forces, which rely heavily on conscripts and outdated equipment.

ATLANTIC EXERCISE

Russia last month said it would begin major navy sorties into the Mediterranean, with 11 ships backed up by 47 aircraft, that would then travel to the Atlantic for exercises.

The navy's flagship aircraft carrier, the Soviet-made Admiral Kuznetsov, was leading the fleet in the Atlantic where NATO aircraft were trying to keep a close eye on Russian movements, Russian media reported.

"This is the biggest exercise of its kind in the area since Soviet times," a spokesman for Russia's navy said, adding that more details would be released later.

There was no further information about where in the Bay of Biscay, which lies off the West coast of France and the Northern coast of Spain, the missile tests were due to take place.

Russia's air force said turbo-prop Tupolev Tu-95 strategic bombers, codenamed "Bear" by NATO, would join the exercise on Wednesday.

"From January 23, the aviation component in the zone where the exercises are going on will be widened and the following planes will take part: Tu-160, Tu-95, Tu-22 M3, Il-78, A-50," the air force said.

Russia bombers to test-fire missiles in Atlantic (http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20080122/ts_nm/russia_spain_flights_dc_4)

Election Officials Bar Putin's Ex-Premier From Presidential Race

By Peter Finn
Washington Post Foreign Service
Monday, January 28, 2008; A18

MOSCOW, Jan. 27 -- Former prime minister Mikhail Kasyanov, a political opponent of President Vladimir Putin, was barred Sunday from running for president after the Central Election Commission said it had found tens of thousands of forged signatures among the 2 million gathered by his campaign to get his name on the ballot.

Opinion polls indicated that Kasyanov posed no political threat to Putin's chosen successor, Dmitry Medvedev, the overwhelming favorite in the March 2 vote, and his disqualification will immediately raise questions about the Kremlin's willingness to face any competition or debate. As a candidate, Kasyanov would have enjoyed some access to state-controlled national television stations, which rarely mention him and then only to attack him as corrupt or declare him irrelevant.

Kasyanov alleged that the commission's decision was "made personally by Vladimir Putin," who fired him in 2004.

"The hopes that the political process will develop within the constitutional field have not been justified," Kasyanov said Sunday. "Those who think we are losers are wrong. In spite of all circumstances, we have won because we have held our honor and dignity, and we have done all we could in the current situation. Those who think our campaign is over are mistaken. Our campaign is just beginning."

The Central Election Commission said an examination of two large samples of the signatures gathered in behalf of Kasyanov found that more than 13 percent had been forged. If more than 5 percent of two samples are false, a candidate is automatically disqualified under Russia's electoral law.

"We made this decision based on the norms of law," said Elvira Yermakova, a commission member.

At a news conference Sunday, Kasyanov said that "there has been no forgery.

"The authorities are afraid of the people's will. They are denying us a chance for an honest political fight," he said.

Campaign officials said they had not decided whether to appeal Kasyanov's exclusion in the courts, which have no record of restraining the central authorities in politically charged cases.

Kasyanov was one of two candidates who needed to gather 2 million signatures to get on the ballot because they were not nominated by political parties with representation in the lower house of parliament.

The other such candidate, Andrei Bogdanov, head of the tiny Democratic Party, was officially registered last week after the Central Election Commission verified the signatures he had collected. Three other candidates -- Medvedev, communist Gennady Zyuganov and nationalist Vladimir Zhirinovsky -- were automatically put on the ballot as the nominees of parties in parliament.

Political analysts said Bogdanov, whose party received only about 90,000 votes in the recent parliamentary elections, benefited from the quiet backing of the Kremlin, which wants to create the appearance of competition while ensuring that no one can effectively challenge Medvedev or even criticize him too severely.

Zhirinovsky said he was suspicious of how Bogdanov had amassed 2 million signatures -- vastly more than the number of votes that opinion polls suggest he will get in the election. A recent poll gave him 0.2 percent support.

"This could have made Kasyanov jealous, reasonably jealous in a way," Zhirinovsky said.

But Kasyanov received little sympathy among other candidates. Zyuganov told reporters Sunday that Kasyanov's disqualification "does not mean anything."

"Kasyanov had no chance at all," Zyuganov said. "The Orange leprosy, as in Ukraine, will not pass here."

Zyuganov was referring to the Orange Revolution in neighboring Ukraine in 2004, which led to the election of a pro-Western president, Viktor Yushchenko. Some in the Communist Party here echo the Kremlin's sentiment that the street protests that swept Yushchenko to power resulted from Western machinations, not popular will. And Kasyanov, along with other opponents of the Kremlin, is routinely described as a puppet of the West.

Despite his indifference to Kasyanov's fate, Zyuganov has also complained of an unfair playing field, in particular state television's trumpeting of Medvedev and the difficulty of other candidates in getting coverage. Within the Communist Party, there has been debate about whether Zyuganov should withdraw his candidacy, but he has insisted he will fight on.

Election Officials Bar Putin's Ex-Premier From Presidential Race (http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/01/27/AR2008012700248.html?hpid=sec-world)

Russia: Gazprom's Advance Into Europe Continues

Advantage, Russia.
Moscow has taken a giant leap toward solidifying its role as Europe's dominant energy supplier by securing two key pipeline deals over the past two weeks.

On January 18, Bulgaria signed a deal with Russia's state-controlled natural-gas monopoly Gazprom to join its South Stream pipeline project. which would transport gas from Russia deep into the heart of Europe. And now, in an ornate Kremlin signing ceremony a week later, Serbia joined the project as well.

"With the signing of these agreements Serbia becomes a key transit junction in the emerging system providing energy supplies from Russia...to the whole European continent," Russian President Vladimir Putin said after the signing ceremony.

At one level, the South Stream pipeline project is designed to get Russian gas to Europe while bypassing former Soviet transit countries like Ukraine and Belarus.

But more importantly, analysts say it is part of an ongoing Russian effort to stifle the European Union's efforts to diversify its energy supplies and lessen dependence on Moscow. In the process, the Kremlin and Gazprom are using Russia's energy might to establish a strategic foothold in Europe and expand Moscow's influence on the continent.

"This is part of a larger strategy," says Fyodor Lukyanov, editor in chief of the Moscow-based journal "Russia in Global Affairs." "Wherever possible, it is necessary to increase Russia's presence in Europe, either inside the EU or in countries that have a chance to join."

The fear is that this could leave Europe vulnerable to energy blackmail.

"There is the possibility that Russia could start using energy as a political tool in parts of Central Europe, like it has done in the East with Ukraine," says Mark Hester, editor of the U.K.-based journal "Oil and Energy Trends."

Gazprom cut off gas supplies to Ukraine for several days in January 2006 after a price dispute. The cutoff followed Ukraine's 2004 Orange Revolution, which brought a pro-Western government to power, causing many to suspect Russia of using energy as a political weapon.

So does this mean that Russia -- which has been in an increasingly anti-Western mood -- will soon be in position to halt Europe's heating supply in the dead of some future winter?

Hester says it's "not quite that scary yet" but that such a "worst-case scenario...is the way we ought to look at it."

Requiem For Nabucco?

Gazprom's South Stream project, which officials say would begin deliveries in 2013, would pump 30 billion cubic meters of gas a year under the Black Sea to Bulgaria. The pipeline would then branch off in two directions: north to Austria and south to Italy.

Energy analysts say it is aimed at undermining the Nabucco pipeline, an EU-backed project that would circumvent Russia by transporting gas from the Caspian and Central Asian regions to Europe via Turkey and the Balkans.

In May, Moscow dealt a major blow to Nabucco when it signed an agreement with Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan to build a pipeline along the Caspian Sea coast to transport their natural gas to Europe -- via Russia. In June, Gazprom and Italy's Eni further undermined Nabucco by signing the initial deal to build South Stream.

Now, many observers fear that with Bulgaria and Serbia joining South Stream, Nabucco could be on its death bed.

"Nabucco is not dead, but it is a patient that risks dying," says Federico Bordonaro, a Rome-based energy analyst with the "Power and Interest News Report." "The simple fact that the South Stream is the project that everyone is discussing and it is the project that has been successfully approved, is not per se a reason to say that Nabucco is dead. But the economic viability of Nabucco now comes into question."

Russia is pushing hard to assure that gas from Turkmenistan will be delivered to Europe via Russia and South Stream -- not via Nabucco. Analysts say it is doubtful that there is enough gas in the Caspian region for both pipelines.

Gasprom's foray into Europe is not confined to pipelines. The company is also busily acquiring energy infrastructure throughout the continent. As part of the South Stream deal with Serbia, for example, it also acquired the country's largest oil company, NIS.

Austro-Hungarian Waltz

Gazprom also made a deal last year with Austrian energy major OMV to buy a 50 percent stake in the company's Baumgarten gas-storage and -distribution center near Vienna. Gazprom is negotiating agreements to build other gas-storage facilities in Belgium, Hungary, and Austria.

But the Baumgarten deal with OMV is particularly important: the Baumgarten facility was the planned termination point for the Nabucco pipeline.

Under the Nabucco plan, it was to have its storage capacity expanded and would be fitted with pipeline links to carry Caspian gas to other European countries. Since Gazprom itself wants to supply these countries, its control of the facility would throw the plans for Nabucco into disarray.

According to media reports, Gazprom has also been enticing OMV with a pledge to make it the leading distributor of natural gas in Europe.

Moreover, OMV has been buying up shares in Hungary's energy major MOL in an attempt at a hostile takeover. Media reports and energy analysts say the move has Gazprom's tacit support.

"Austria's gas-transit and -storage network will be more integrated with Gazprom's network," Bordonaro says. "If Austria enters Gazprom's orbit, and then if the Austrian major [OMV] takes over the Hungarian major [MOL], then it is like you scored two goals with only one strike. Then, via Austria, you also control Hungary."

European Disunion

Gazprom has very skillfully exploited divisions among EU member states by striking bilateral deals that undermine Brussels' efforts to forge a common energy policy.

"Russia knows very well that Europe lacks real political unity. It is always possible to use bilateral agreements in order to advance Gazprom's interests," Bordonaro says. "The Europeans need the gas, the Russians can provide this gas, and because of the political and economic decision-making structure, Russia is much faster than the European Union in making key decisions."

In an interview with RFE/RL in Brussels, EU Energy Commissioner Andris Piebalgs said legislation is in the works to prevent Gazprom from gaining control of strategic energy assets within the European Union. Most importantly, he is proposing "unbundling" -- or separating -- energy suppliers from distribution networks.

"I believe strongly that network infrastructure should be separated from upstream activities [and] downstream activities. It think that is the crucial issue," Piebalgs said. "It's not only [important] from the security point of view, but also from the normal market point of view."

Piebalgs said he hoped the legislation would be passed before 2009. Will that be enough to stop the Gazprom juggernaut from dominating the continent's energy market? Hestert, for one, thinks the EU needs to come up with a comprehensive strategy before it is too late.

"In terms of reaching the worst-case scenario, it really depends on how the U.S., the European governments, and the EU actually react," Hestert said. "If they haven't got a strategy in place, an expectation that this is going to happen, then they really need to start thinking of one."

Russia: Gazprom's Advance Into Europe Continues (http://www.rferl.org/featuresarticle/2008/01/f2269a3e-1135-4c4b-add3-6951838b6aa7.html)

Japan, U.S. building anti-missile shield
Focus is on North Korea, and on plan to expand system to Europe
The Associated Press
updated 4:02 p.m. MT, Mon., Jan. 28, 2008

MISAWA AIR BASE, Japan - One of only four in the world, the Joint Tactical Ground Station sits in a field of snow behind the high fences of this remote base in northern Japan like a windowless trailer home with a few good satellite dishes out back.

It's not impressive. But this is the front line.

In a multibillion-dollar experiment, Japan and the United States are erecting the world's most complex ballistic missile defense shield, a project that is changing the security balance in Asia and has deep implications for Washington's efforts to pursue a similar strategy in Europe, where the idea has been stalled by the lack of willing partners.

The station here is the newest piece in the shield.

"Japan is one of our strongest allies in the ballistic missile defense arena," said Brig. Gen. John E. Seward, the deputy commanding general of operations for the U.S. Army Space and Missile Defense Command.

In a recent mock-up of how it would work, U.S. military satellites detect a flash of heat from a missile range in North Korea, and within seconds computers plot a rough trajectory across the Sea of Japan that ends in an oval splash-zone outlined in red near Japan's main island.

In a real-world crisis, the next 10 or 15 minutes could be the beginning of an all-out shooting war. Millions could die. Or, two missiles could collide in mid-air over the ocean.

$8 billion sought this year
Washington and Tokyo are banking on the idea that early warning of the kind provided by the Joint Tactical Ground Station, or JTAG, and another state-of-the-art "X-band" radar station recently deployed nearby will lead to the latter. They are pouring a huge amount of resources — the U.S. Missile Defense Agency is seeking an $8 billion budget this year — into establishing a credible warning and response network.

Though Washington's focus, and world attention, has shifted toward Iran, North Korea has over the past several years made major strides in its development of both nuclear weapons and the means to deliver them to the shores of other countries.

In October 2006, it conducted its first nuclear test — a step that Iran has not taken — and more than a decade ago shot a multistage ballistic missile over Japan's main island and well into the Pacific, almost reaching Alaska.

Japan's concerns are obvious: Its islands arc around the Korean Peninsula, and relations between the communist North and its former colonial ruler have never been good.

But the threat to the United States is also pressing.

Under a mutual security pact, the United States has about 50,000 troops deployed around Japan — all within reach of North Korea's missiles.

The U.S. military last year deployed a Patriot missile battalion to Kadena Air Base, on the southern island of Okinawa. The U.S. and Japanese navies have also increased their ability to intercept ballistic missiles from sea-based launchers.

Japan shoots missile out of air
In a test off Hawaii in December, Japan became the first country after the United States to shoot a missile out of the air with a ship-launched SM-3 interceptor. Japan hopes to equip its ships with such interceptor missiles over next several years.

The sea-based interceptors, which have a longer range than land-based Patriots, are Japan's first line of defense.

Seward said he hopes the alliance with Tokyo on ballistic missile defense will serve as a model for the world.

The U.S. operates its three other JTAGs in Germany, Qatar and South Korea.

But Washington's efforts to deploy missile interceptors in Poland and a radar in the Czech Republic have deeply frayed ties between NATO and Moscow, which dismisses U.S. arguments that the installations are meant to counter a potential threat from Iran, saying they believe the intent is to weaken Russia.

Japanese officials admit that they have signed on to Washington's BMD alliance because the urgency of the Asian situation — which may not apply to Europe.

"Around Japan there are countries that could launch ballistic missiles against us," said Ro Manabe, the Ministry of Defense press secretary. "But in Europe, they do not have an imminent threat like that. In the near future, it may be possible that some countries, like Iran, may get that capability. But there are such states currently in this region. That is a basic and significant difference."

Manabe said the dense population of Tokyo makes the establishment of permanent bases inside the city unlikely.

Seward, meanwhile, said that while U.S. missile detection capabilities have vastly improved, it will largely fall to Japan to defend itself in an attack.

"Most assets in Japan are Japanese," he said. "The Japanese would have to defend themselves."

Japan, U.S. rush to build anti-missile shield (http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/22886176/)

NATO Chief: Military Alone Can’t Solve Afghanistan’s Problems
By Jim Garamone
American Forces Press Service

WASHINGTON, Jan. 28, 2008 – The military cannot solve the problems of Afghanistan by itself, NATO’s supreme allied commander in Europe said today.

Army Gen. Bantz J. Craddock spoke on National Public Radio’s Diane Rehm Show. NATO is responsible for the International Security Assistance Force in Afghanistan.

Craddock, who has held his post since December 2006, said he had just returned from a trip to Afghanistan, and though he sees progress every time he goes to the country, it is uneven. Even where security progress has been good, more needs to be done to bring good governance to the people and to create jobs, he said.

“The fact is the military can’t solve the problem,” Craddock said. “The military will set the conditions to allow the people of Afghanistan and the local, provincial and national governments to provide better governance, and create jobs.”

The idea, he said, is to drive a wedge between the Taliban and the people. He said he wants to break the “day fighters” -- Afghans who fight for the Taliban or al Qaeda as a way to earn money and put food on their families’ tables -- away from the group.

“If they could get an honest wage, they would do it,” Craddock said. “That’s the job creation that needs to happen throughout the country. And it has to happen in the south and east, as well as the more stable areas in the north and west.”

Most of Afghanistan’s 396 districts are peaceful, the general said, with 40 districts in the southern and eastern parts of the country causing 70 percent of Afghanistan’s security problems. “That is Taliban country,” Craddock said.

The United States is sending an additional 3,200 Marines into Afghanistan beginning in March. Part of the force will go to reinforce NATO forces in Regional Command South, and the rest will be trainers for the Afghan National Army and Afghan National Police.

NATO has 47,000 troops in Afghanistan, 18,000 of them American. Another 10,000 American servicemembers are part of Operation Enduring Freedom and are not under NATO command. This includes trainers with Combined Security Transition Command Afghanistan.

The Marines will be a short-term fix. Once they leave Afghanistan after a seven-month stint, NATO nations must pony up their replacements. The need for the troops is undisputed; NATO nations determined the numbers, and the alliance members agreed.

“We have a requirement that has not been met,” Craddock said. “We have a troop list, and we continue to work with the NATO nations to get them to contribute to meet all of our military requirements.”

Some of the requirements are in the “high-demand, low-density” category. These include helicopters and complex intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance assets. In some cases, the general said, political issues preclude nations from contributing.

The NATO effort must be a long-term commitment, Craddock said, because NATO forces will be needed until Afghan security forces can take responsibility. Meanwhile, he said, the Afghan government must work with the international community and nongovernmental organizations to put aid and job programs in place. These programs “must be integrated, coordinated and focused on the delivery of the effects: the jobs, the infrastructure, the roads,” he said.

“The key here is the development of a competent Afghan National Army and police force,” he said.

The Afghan National Army is moving along very well. The army could be ready to take over total responsibility in four to five years, he said, with the police two years behind.

NATO Chief: Military Alone Can’t Solve Afghanistan’s Problems (http://www.defenselink.mil/news/newsarticle.aspx?id=48791)

Russian bomber cuts into Japanese airspace: official

11 hours ago

TOKYO (AFP) — Japan scrambled two dozen military aircraft and lodged a protest, accusing a Russian strategic bomber of entering its airspace over the Pacific Ocean south of Tokyo Saturday.

Russia denied the incursion, but the Japanese foreign ministry said it lodged a strong protest with the Russian embassy in Tokyo over the incident, which followed stepped up Russian long-range air patrols over the Atlantic.

"We have asked the Russian government to make a thorough investigation into the matter," a foreign ministry spokesman said.

The Tupolev Tu-95 bomber, which dates to the Soviet era, flew over the rocky isle of Sofugan, 650 kilometres (406 miles) south of Tokyo, for about three minutes from 7:30 am (2230 GMT Friday), the defence ministry said.

The air force scrambled 24 planes, including F-15 fighters and an E-767 radar plane, the defence ministry said.

They gave "a notice, then a warning and another a notice and a warning," a defence ministry statement said. "There was no response."

The Russian bomber then flew back north towards the Russian island of Sakhalin, it said.

Moscow said four Tupolev Tu-95 bombers completed a 10-hour mission over the Pacific on Saturday without violating Japanese airspace and that US fighters were also scrambled during the incident.

"Our strategic aviation planes did not violate Japanese airspace," deputy Russian air force commander Igor Sadofyev told the Russian Interfax news agency.

Alexander Drobyshevsky, a spokesman for the Russian air force, told Russia's ITAR-TASS agency the flights were carried out "in strict accordance with international rules on flying over neutral waters."

"The strategic bombers were accompanied by F-15 fighter jets from the Japanese air force and F-18 fighter jets from the US carrier Nimitz," Drobyshevsky said.

Japan said it was the first Russian violation of its airspace since January 2006.

Russia's Tupolev design bureau said last October it had begun a "serious modernisation" of the Tu-95 strategic bomber, a workhorse of the Soviet and Russian air forces for over 50 years.

Russian President Vladimir Putin announced in August the resumption of long-range flights in international air space which were abandoned in 1992 amid financial difficulties that followed the Soviet collapse.

The Tu-95 MS was among the planes included in the patrols, which were seen aimed at another attempt by Putin to boost Russian prestige as his presidential term draws to a close.

In the lead-up to Putin's announcement, Russian bombers made increasingly frequent flights near US territory. Britain and Norway were scrambled last summer after Tu-95 bombers were spotted close to Norwegian airspace.

Last week, 14 Russian long-range bombers flew over the north Atlantic in the last of a series of military manoeuvres held off Europe's coasts since December, Russian media reported.

Russia and Japan have had uneasy ties. Last month, Japan also lodged a protest with the Russian embassy after saying that Russian embassy officials wined, dined and gave cash to a Japanese intelligence officer who handed over research information.

Japan and Russia have never signed a peace treaty to formally end World War II due to a dispute over four islands off Japan's northern coast seized by Soviet troops in 1945.

The Japanese government said Wednesday that Prime Minister Yasuo Fukuda hoped to visit Moscow early this year and believed that Russian President Vladimir Putin was serious about resolving the island dispute.

Japan, which has been officially pacifist since World War II, is a close US ally and home to more than 40,000 US troops.

Russian bomber cuts into Japanese airspace: official (http://afp.google.com/article/ALeqM5jbPc204b-rVoFjSvZPlHVg6mKM8A)

Putin Criticizes West in Farewell Speech, Lays Out Successor's Agenda

Saturday , February 09, 2008

MOSCOW —
President Vladimir Putin accused the West of military expansion and laid out an ambitious agenda for his successor to restore Russia's economic and military clout in a farewell address Friday.

With less than a month before the presidential election, the speech signaled that Putin's doctrine of assertive economic and military policies and unwavering centralized power would continue under his chosen successor, First Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev.

Medvedev is expected to win the March 2 vote easily, and he has indicated he will name Putin as his prime minister.

The West is skeptical of how free and fair the vote will be, and the election monitoring body of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe said Thursday it would not send observers because of "severe restrictions" imposed by the Kremlin.

In his televised speech to government officials, cultural figures and religious leaders, Putin dismissed those concerns, saying that "attempts of foreign interference in the course of the political battles within Russia are not only immoral, but also illegal."

Putin spoke strongly against NATO's expansion into former Soviet bloc states of eastern Europe and said Moscow would respond by modernizing its military and weapons systems.

He said the West has failed to respond to Russia's security concerns about U.S. plans to deploy missile defense sites in Poland and the Czech Republic and new military bases in Romania and Bulgaria.

"We haven't seen any real steps toward compromise," Putin said.

He warned that a new arms race is under way. "It is not our fault because we did not start it," he said.

NATO defense ministers, meeting Friday in Vilnius, Lithuania, said there was no need for such heated rhetoric.

"I don't think it's fair to say we don't hear Russian concerns, and I might add that NATO countries want as much as possible to meet those concerns, but we have to, of course, take into account the interest and security of NATO countries as well," NATO spokesman James Appathurai said.

Washington says its plan to place 10 missile defense interceptors in Poland and a radar station in the neighboring Czech Republic is not aimed at Russia, but is part of a global system to protect against any missile attacks by Iran.

State Department spokesman Tom Casey said he had not seen Putin's comments. But he said the U.S. missile defense would be "a small and limited system, defensive in nature, and poses absolutely no threat to Russia's strategic interests."

Listing the domestic successes of his tenure, Putin noted the country's rising birth rate and growth of the middle class. He said the rule of law had been restored after what he described as the chaotic years of the 1990s following the collapse of the Soviet Union.

"One can say with confidence now that political lawlessness for the people of Russia has ended," he said.

And he returned to the issue that helped propel him to the presidency — terrorism in the North Caucasus and his decision in 1999, as prime minister, to order federal troops back into Chechnya, starting the second war to ravage the region in less than a decade.

He said Chechnya is on the road to recovery, and he warned of the danger of allowing separatist movements to develop.

"If we were to ever allow ourselves in the future to fall into this sort of partition, it would be endless and it would destroy the country," he said.

Putin also laid out a plan for the development of the country over the next 12 years.

He said Russia's economy is "extremely inefficient" and had harsh words for the government's bloated bureaucracy, which "significantly blocks and unmotivates the development of the country."

Russia should do more to encourage innovation and develop value-added manufacturing instead of relying solely on exports of its abundant natural resources, he said.

Putin Criticizes West in Farewell Speech, Lays Out Successor's Agenda (http://www.foxnews.com/printer_friendly_story/0,3566,330203,00.html)

Russia Wants Multinational Arms Control

By DAVID RISING – 9 hours ago

MUNICH, Germany (AP) — The United States and Russia should set aside Cold War arms control treaties and replace them with new, multilateral agreements to combat nuclear proliferation, a senior Russian official said Sunday.

Sergei Ivanov, Russia's defense minister until promoted to first deputy prime minister last year, said the time has come "to open this framework for all leading states interested in cooperation in order to ensure overall security."

But "Russia-U.S. ties will certainly retain their significance," he said.

Ivanov also told a gathering of the world's top defense officials that Russia's burgeoning economic power does not represent a threat to other countries, but the West has to get used to Moscow's growing influence in world affairs.

He said Russia expects to be among the world's five biggest economies by 2020, but "we do not aim to buy the entire Old World with our petrodollars."

"Getting richer, Russia will not pose a threat to the security of other countries. Yet our influence on global processes will continue to grow," he said.

"More than half of Russian foreign trade is with the EU, so the Russians have already come — not with tanks, not with missiles, but with joint trade."

However, the European Union's foreign policy chief, Javier Solana, criticized Russia's increased assertiveness in world affairs, saying Russia has not been constructive in efforts to secure an international agreement on Kosovo's independence from Serbia.

Kosovo's ethnic Albanian leadership has said it will declare independence unilaterally from Serbia "in a matter of days."

The United States and most EU nations support statehood for the U.N.-run province where 90 percent of the population of 2 million is ethnic Albanian.

Ivanov said Russia believes that recognizing an independent Kosovo would set a dangerous precedent.

"We want to stay within the international law framework, and we don't want to create a precedent, and we think if it comes to unilateral recognition of Kosovo that will be a precedent ... and that will be something close to opening a Pandora's Box," he said.

Solana rejected fears that other breakaway regions would follow Kosovo's example.

"I'm not concerned at all," he told reporters. "No conflict is equal, no history is equal ... this domino theory is completely wrong."

Ivanov said that Russia's revival "objectively combines our ambition to occupy an appropriate place in world politics and commitment to maintaining our national interests."

But, he stressed, "we do not intend to meet this challenge by establishing military blocs or engaging in open confrontation with our opponents."

Though Moscow and Washington have been at odds recently over an American plan to position parts of a missile defense system in Poland and the Czech Republic, Ivanov said Russia and the U.S. needed to work closely together to combat nuclear proliferation.

He suggested that old bilateral treaties between the U.S. and Russia on nuclear arms — like the Salt 1 agreement — should be replaced by multilateral agreements.

"It is imperative to ensure that the provisions of such a regime should be legally binding so that, in due course, it would really become possible to shift to the control over nuclear weapons and the process of their gradual reduction on a multilateral basis," he said.

Involvement of all major nuclear nations, he said, "is the essence of our proposals related to the anti-missile defense and to the intermediate and short-range missiles."

Russia Wants Multinational Arms Control (http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5gx5Po_oerEWk5JG58Vim0TUoWFmAD8UNEAL80)

Libyans increase al-Qaida terror role
Leaders in Pakistan have rewarded Libyans with increased power and media presence.
Sebastian Rotella / Los Angeles Times

MADRID, Spain -- The death of Abu Laith al Libi, a Libyan al-Qaida chief, has cast a spotlight on the rise of Libyan militants in a network dominated by Egyptians and Saudis, Western anti-terrorism investigators say.

Al Libi was killed last week in an American missile strike on a hide-out in Pakistan near the border with Afghanistan, officials say. In addition to overseeing a paramilitary campaign in Afghanistan, Al Libi had become a top figure in a propaganda barrage on the Internet, according to experts.

The emergence of the Libyans, traditionally a strong but low-profile group, is a result of developments on three fronts: Iraq, Pakistan and Afghanistan. While al-Qaida has suffered setbacks in Iraq, Libyan militants there have proven resilient and adept at moving fighters into combat, experts say. Libyans have become the second-biggest foreign contingent in Iraq, according to a U.S. military analysis of seized documents.

Al-Qaida's leaders in Pakistan have rewarded the Libyans with increased power and media presence, experts say.

"There is a rising leadership cadre of Libyans in al-Qaida," said J. Vahid Brown, an analyst at the Combating Terrorism Center at West Point. "Egyptians have really dominated strategic and military operations. The Egyptians are good at keeping control of that, because many of them have military training. Now you have Libyan faces appearing in videos."

The group's chief, Osama bin Laden, is a Saudi, and his deputy, Ayman al-Zawahri, is Egyptian. Their dominance has made Gulf Arabs and Egyptians especially the organization's most powerful players.

Western investigators say al-Qaida's structure is paradoxically fluid and bureaucratic at the same time. The multiethnic alliance survives by evolving on the run, but it also has a penchant for titles, budgets and paperwork.

"What is curious about al-Qaida is the contradictory nature of the organization," said a senior British anti-terrorism official. "It is curiously bureaucratic."

And the network has its share of infighting.

Some rifts have been ideological, such as a debate over bin Laden's decision to launch the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks and the crushing retaliation it provoked. In addition, conflicts have resulted from resentment of the Egyptians as well as tensions between Arabs and Central Asians, experts said.

The network has an ethnic pecking order of sorts. In the late 1990s, Libyans were quiet but influential. They played the role of mentors for fellow North Africans, particularly Moroccans who were seen as "little foot soldiers," according to a Spanish law enforcement chief.

The Libyan Islamic Fighting Group, which has waged a longtime campaign against Moammar Gadhafi's regime, ran a camp in Afghanistan that groomed the founders of the Moroccan Islamic Combatant Group, according to Spanish court documents. Al Libi became a revered figure among the Moroccans.

A captured Moroccan extremist named Nourredine Nafia told interrogators about meetings in Turkey in 1998 at which Libyans provided expertise about communications and organizing cells, according to Italian court documents.

After the U.S.-led military strikes in Afghanistan in retaliation for the Sept. 11 attacks, the damaged al-Qaida leadership scattered to refuges in northwest Pakistan and elsewhere.

Libyans increase al-Qaida terror role (http://www.detnews.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080208/NATION/802080305/1020/NATION)
~~~~~~~~~

Ezekiel 38:5 Persia, Cush, and Put or Libya with them, all of them with shield and helmet,

Nuft said............

Pakistan nuclear staff go missing
12 February 2008

Two employees of Pakistan's atomic energy agency have been abducted in the country's restive north-western region abutting the Afghan border, police say.

The technicians went missing on the same day as Pakistan's ambassador to Afghanistan, Tariq Azizuddin, was reportedly abducted in the same region.

Mr Azizuddin had been going overland from the city of Peshawar to Kabul.

Pakistan's north-west has witnessed fierce fighting between Islamist militants and government troops.

The pro-Taleban guerrillas declared a unilateral ceasefire last week after months of clashes with troops garrisoned there.

The workers from Pakistan's Atomic Energy Commission were on a mission to map mineral deposits in the mountains when they were kidnapped, police say.

"The technicians were going for some geological survey in the area when they were kidnapped at gunpoint along with their driver," Romail Akram, a senior police official, told Reuters news agency.

Their vehicle was intercepted by masked gunmen in the Dera Ismail Khan district, a stronghold of local militants.

"We don't know if the abductors were militants or members of some criminal gang," a local police chief, Akbar Nasir, told the AFP news agency.

He said efforts to locate the missing men had yet to yield any results.

Karzai concerned

Efforts are also continuing to locate the missing Pakistani envoy, Tariq Azizuddin.

Mr Azizuddin went missing on Monday as he was travelling overland from the Pakistani city of Peshawar to the Afghan capital, Kabul.

Afghan President Hamid Karzai said he was certain the envoy had been abducted, adding: "I hope he is safe and I hope he will be released soon."

The Khyber region has long been a base for bandits and smugglers but has seen little of the unrest linked to an uprising by Islamist militants in adjoining areas.

Pro-Taleban militants recently kidnapped more than 200 Pakistani troops in the South Waziristan region.

The soldiers were reportedly released in a prisoner exchange with Pakistani authorities.

'Protected road'

Pakistan's government has refused to confirm Mr Azizuddin has been kidnapped, saying only that he was missing.

The Pakistani embassy in Kabul said contact was lost with Mr Azizuddin at around 1045 local time (0645 GMT) on Monday.

There were reports on Pakistani television of his car going through a checkpoint without stopping.

An official of the Khyber agency tribal administration told the BBC that the ambassador went through the Khyber agency without taking a security escort that was waiting for him at the start of the tribal territory.

Correspondents say that such escorts are routinely sent with dignitaries and officials when they travel through tribal areas.

But some travellers dispense with them because they think it makes their movements more noticeable.

Mr Azizuddin is said to have previously travelled to Kabul by road, often without the tribal security escort.

The route through the agency is believed to be the shortest and quickest way between Peshawar and Kabul.

Being the main trade route, the Khyber agency road is busy in daylight hours, supplying reinforcements and to the US and Nato forces in Afghanistan.

It is also one of the most protected of all the tribal roads, with a contingent of tribal police posted every 100m. The paramilitary Frontier Corps have a fort along the road.

Pakistan nuclear staff go missing (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/south_asia/7240414.stm)

N. Korea would sell nukes to terrorists

February 5, 2008

By Bill Gertz - North Korea threatened to export nuclear weapons to international terrorists in 2005, according to a U.S. intelligence report made public yesterday.

The report to Congress on arms proliferation was produced in 2006 and also said al Qaeda is developing chemical and biological weapons for use in Iraq and Afghanistan and continues to seek nuclear or radiological bombs.

On Syria, the report said that the Damascus government has nuclear research facilities at Dayr, Al Hajar and Dubaya, and that U.S. intelligence agencies "continue to monitor Syrian nuclear intentions with concern."

On North Korea, the report expressed continued worries about threats from the reclusive communist regime to export nuclear arms. In April 2005, North Korea told a U.S. academic, who was not identified further, that Pyongyang "could transfer nuclear weapons to terrorists if driven into a corner," the report stated. It was the first time that the U.S. intelligence community disclosed the basis for concerns about North Korea"s supplying terrorists with nuclear arms.

The threat followed a statement from a North Korean official made during the six-party nuclear talks in April 2003 warning that Pyongyang could export nuclear weapons.

Additionally, the report disclosed that in May 2004, inspectors from the International Atomic Energy Agency recovered 2 tons of uranium hexafluoride from Libya thought to have originated in North Korea. The uranium gas is used in centrifuges to produce highly enriched uranium for bombs.

North Korea detonated its first nuclear device in October 2006 and the regime's official media frequently asserts that the U.S. is preparing a pre-emptive nuclear attack.

On al Qaeda, the report said a wide array of intelligence reports had revealed that the Islamist group and other terrorists were continuing to pursue "chemical and biological capabilities for use in attacks against Western targets, especially in Iraq and Afghanistan."

"Rhetoric from these groups continued to focus on the need for spectacular attacks, but actual attempts were few during this time period and consisted of small-scale attacks using commercially available toxic industrial chemicals," the report said.

The annual report to Congress covers the period from January to December 2005 and is known as the "721 report" after the section of the 1997 law requiring U.S. intelligence agencies to report on the acquisition of technology on weapons of mass destruction and advanced conventional arms.

Al Qaeda in Iraq sought to improve its chemical capabilities, working with other Iraq-based terrorists. Insurgents carried out one "poisoning" in May 2005, by injecting watermelons with common chemicals and distributing the fruit to Iraqi solders south of Mosul.

"Some soldiers became ill, but there were no reported fatalities," the report said.

The report identified "key suppliers" of weapons and technology as China, North Korea and Russia and noted that China supplied Pakistan, Iran and North Korea with ballistic missiles and support. Russia supplied ballistic missile goods and technology to China, Iran, India and North Korea and also sold Iskander-E short-range missiles, the report said.

On Iran, the report said Tehran "sought foreign materials, training, equipment, and know-how during 2005 focused particularly on entities in China, North Korea, Russia, and Europe."

The report was produced before the National Intelligence Estimate on Iran made public in December that stated Tehran suspended its nuclear weapons program in 2003 but is continuing work on uranium enrichment and could restart the arms program. The NIE reversed a 2005 estimate that said Iran was building nuclear arms in secret.

N. Korea would sell nukes to terrorists (http://www.washingtontimes.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080205/NATION/163481673/1002&template=printart)

Related;

North Korea Maintains Uranium Enrichment Program (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601080&sid=avqqq_inzE8g&refer=asia)

N.Korea threatened to transfer nukes if it was backed into a corner (http://www.upi.com/NewsTrack/Top_News/2008/02/05/nkorea_threatened_to_transfer_nukes/7232/)

North Korea Threatens to Sell Nukes (http://www.khouse.org/enews_article/2008/1286)

Dead Billionaire Had Feared Enemy Plot

Updated:19:02, Wednesday February 13, 2008
The sudden death of an exiled Georgian billionaire may have been another "Alexander Litvinenko-style" murder, it is feared.

A major crime squad is investigating the death of 52-year-old Badri Patarkatsishvili, whose body was found at his country mansion in Surrey at about 11pm last night.

His family said he suffered a heart attack - but Surrey Police have launched an investigation to confirm the exact cause of death after reports of a plot to kill him.

However, officers say there is no suggestion any radioactive substance were involved in his death.

Sky News' home affairs correspondent Mark White said: "The police want to leave no stone uncovered.

"In the light of Litvinenko's death in 2006 they are treating it very seriously and want to investigate properly to rule out foul play or to find out whether he was the subject of a hit."

Mr Patarkatsishvili - Georgia's richest man, with an estimated £6bn fortune - spoke recently of his fears for his life after one alleged plot against him was uncovered in London.

It has also been reported that an assassination plan bore chilling similarities to the killing of ex-KGB agent Alexander Litvinenko in 2006.

Mr Litvinenko - an outspoken critic of the Putin regime - was killed by radiation poisoning in London. Moscow has refused to extradite the prime suspect, ex-KGB bodyguard Andrei Lugovoi.

Talking about Mr Patarkatsishvili's death at his home Downside Manor outside Leatherhead, a spokeswoman for Surrey Police said: "As with all unexplained deaths, it is being treated as suspicious.

"A post-mortem examination will be held later today to establish the cause of death."

Mr Patarkatsishvili amassed his wealth during the privatisation of state industries in Russia during the 1990s.

He helped to finance the Rose Revolution that swept President Mikhail Saakashvili to power in Georgia in 2003, but subsequently fell out with him.

The Georgian - who founded opposition TV channel Imedi in 2002 - backed mass street protests against the government in Tbilisi last November.

And just one month ago, Georgian prosecutors charged Mr Patarkatsishvili with plotting a coup after he had stood unsuccessfully against President Saakashvili in January elections.

In December he told the Sunday Times he did not feel safe returning to his home country.

The paper published extracts of a tape recording of a conversation said to have taken place between an official from the Georgian interior ministry and a possible hitman.

The two men allegedly discussed two options for making Mr Patarkatsishvili "disappear completely".

One involved murdering the tycoon during one of his regular visits to London and the other was to kill him as he flew in his private aeroplane to his castle in southern Georgia.

The official reportedly said Georgia wanted to be able to blame the assassination on Russia.

Asked whether he felt safe in Britain, Mr Patarkatsishvili told the Sunday Times: "I know about this tape and I was told it was very serious.

"I have 120 bodyguards but I know that's not enough. I don't feel safe anywhere and that is why I'm particularly not going to Georgia."

He also had close links to fugitive Russian tycoon Boris Berezovsky, who lives in self-imposed exile in London. The outspoken Kremlin critic has spoken of the "terrible tragedy" of losing his "closest friend".

Dead Billionaire Had Feared Enemy Plot (http://news.sky.com/skynews/article/0,,30100-1305269,00.html)

Russia in Ukraine missile threat
12 February 2008

Russia has said it may target its missiles at Ukraine if its neighbour joins Nato and accepts the deployment of the US missile defence shield.

Russian President Vladimir Putin made the comments in Moscow alongside Ukraine's President, Viktor Yushchenko.

Mr Putin has condemned US plans to include Poland and the Czech Republic in its missile defence shield.

The leaders had been meeting in urgent talks over a gas dispute and announced a deal to avoid disrupting supplies.

'Frightening'

Speaking at a news conference at the Kremlin on Tuesday, Mr Putin said he had advised Ukraine not to join Nato, but admitted he would be unable to interfere in any such move.

"Restrictions on sovereignty... have already had certain consequences, such as the stationing of bases or a positioning area for missile defence in Eastern Europe, which we believe is aimed at neutralising our nuclear missile potential," he said.

Quote from: Viktor Yushchenko Ukrainian President

One must realise that everything Ukraine is doing in this area is certainly not aimed against any third country, especially Russia

"Russia therefore faces a need to take retaliatory action."

The US wants the shield to destroy incoming ballistic missiles potentially coming from North Korea and Iran.

Current plans would see some interceptor missiles based in Poland and an associated radar built in the Czech Republic.

"It is frightening not only to say but even to think that Russia, in response to the emergence of such positioning areas on Ukrainian territory, which cannot be ruled out in theory, will target its offensive missile systems at Ukraine," he said.

"Can you imagine that for a second? That is what we are concerned about."

President Yushchenko said he realised a number of "sensitive issues" would emerge from Ukraine's attempt to join Nato, but that he hoped they could be dealt with through dialogue, openness and trust.

"One must realise that everything Ukraine is doing in this area is certainly not aimed against any third country, especially Russia," he added.

In a televised speech to the Russian State Council last week, Mr Putin had warned that a "new phase in the arms race is unfolding in the world".

He said other countries were spending far more than Russia on new weapons, but that his country would respond to the challenges of an arms race by developing hi-tech weaponry.

Nato invitation

On the gas dispute, Ukraine agreed to start repaying $1.5bn (£770m) owed to the Russian gas company, Gazprom, from Thursday. In return, Russia is reported to have agreed to freeze the price of gas exports to Ukraine at last year's level.

The dispute had raised concerns in European countries, which experienced disruption to their gas supplies as the result of a similar dispute two years ago.

Separately on Tuesday, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said Mr Putin had accepted an invitation to attend the forthcoming Nato summit in the Romanian capital, Bucharest, in April.

Mr Putin will no longer be Russian president in April. Elections for his successor will be held next month.

"This yet again testifies to the fact that Russia is open to dialogue on any issues," Mr Lavrov told reporters while attending the Conference on Disarmament in Geneva.

At the conference, Russia and China proposed a new treaty to ban the use of weapons in space and the use or threat of force against satellites or other craft.

Russia in Ukraine missile threat (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/7241470.stm)

NKorea increases military manoeuvres

3 days ago

SEOUL (AFP) — Energy-starved North Korea has recently increased military manoeuvres, arousing suspicions it may have diverted fuel oil provided under a multinational aid-for-disarmament deal, a report said Sunday.

"It is noteworthy that the North's armoured units have sharply increased exercises in the ongoing winter manoeuvring," an unnamed military source told South Korea's Yonhap news agency, adding Seoul and Washington were analysing the moves.

The new drills involved fighter jets and armoured vehicles in contrast to previous years which had focused on artillery rather than such oil-consuming exercises, the source added.

"We understand North Korea has been enhancing the number of flights flown for training," another unnamed military source told Yonhap.

The sources attributed the increased manoeuvring of armored vehicles and aircraft to the North's "improving" oil supply conditions, without elaborating.

South Korea's defence ministry refused to comment on the report.

But Yonhap said US and South Korean intelligence experts were trying to verify whether the North had diverted the provided fuel oil or earnings from inter-Korean business for military purposes.

Under a six-nation agreement last year, the North would receive one million tons of heavy fuel oil or equivalent aid in return for disabling its nuclear facilities and declaring all relevant programmes.

The impoverished North has also expanded cooperation with South Korean businesses to help earn hard currency.

South Korean negotiators of the disarmament deal have privately said the fuel oil is unsuitable for armoured vehicles, but Yonhap said intelligence authorities were wondering whether it was refined for military purposes.

North Korea's winter military exercises came as South Korean and US troops were preparing to launch a joint drill codenamed "Key Resolve" between March 2 and 7 here.

The North last week condemned the upcoming US-South Korean exercise as preparation for an invasion of the communist state, allegations which are routinely and flatly denied by Seoul and Washington.

The exercise is the first to test Seoul's ability to wage war under a scenario in which South Korea has regained wartime control of its troops from the US. The shift in control is due in 2012.

Some 28,000 US troops are stationed here to back up South Korea's 680,000-strong forces against any threat from the North's 1.1 million-member military.

NKorea increases military manoeuvres (http://afp.google.com/article/ALeqM5jG6_dU5Giql372kyhbocghmZrRjw)

China's expanding fleet of submarines
By David Lague
Thursday, February 7, 2008

BEIJING: For a procession of senior U.S. military commanders who have visited China in recent years, the complaint has become almost routine.

As part of a sustained military buildup, they say, China is investing heavily in so-called area-denial weapons without explaining why it needs them.

The term area-denial weapons refers to a combination of armaments, technology and tactics that could be used to dominate a specific area or keep opposing forces at bay in a conflict. And one of the most formidable examples U.S. commanders identify is the Chinese Navy's rapidly expanding fleet of nuclear and conventional submarines.

"I would say that the U.S. feels a strong threat from Chinese submarines," said Andrei Chang, an expert on Chinese and Taiwan military forces and editor in chief of the magazine Kanwa Defence Review.

"China now has more submarines than Russia, and the speed they are building them is amazing," Chang said.

U.S. and other Western military analysts estimate that China now has more than 30 advanced and increasingly stealthy submarines, along with dozens of older, obsolete types. "China is capable of serial production of modern diesel-electric submarines and is moving forward with new nuclear submarines," the Pentagon said last year in its annual report on the Chinese military.

By the end of the decade, experts say, China will have more submarines than the United States, although it will still lag in overall capability.

In a conflict, these Chinese submarines - many armed with state-of-the-art torpedoes and anti-ship missiles - would sharply increase the threat to enemy warships approaching the strategically important waterways of North Asia, according to security experts.

On a visit to China last month, the senior U.S. military commander in Asia, Admiral Timothy Keating, said the Pentagon was continuing to monitor the development of China's area-denial weapons, including submarines.

"Chinese submarines have very impressive capabilities, and their numbers are increasing," Keating told reporters in Beijing. Like other U.S. commanders, he also called on China to be more open about its plans.

If China were more transparent about the need for these weapons, it would improve trust and reduce the danger of crisis or conflict, Keating said.

"In submarine operations in particular, because of the medium in which they are conducted, underwater, there is greater potential, in my opinion, for inadvertent activity that could be misconstrued or misunderstood," he told reporters.

Under pressure from Washington, senior Chinese officers have said that the buildup is strictly tailored to defending China's interests and that it poses no threat to any other nation.

"The distance between the Chinese and U.S. militaries is big," said General Chen Bingde, chief of general staff in Beijing of the People's Liberation Army. "If you fear China's military buildup, you don't have much courage."

While the administration of President George W. Bush continues to press Beijing for transparency, most foreign security experts, including senior Pentagon analysts, believe China's unstated objectives are relatively clear.

They say that China plans to use its submarines and other area-denial weapons to delay or deter a U.S. intervention in case of conflict over Taiwan. China regards the self-governing island as part of its territory and has warned regularly that it would use force to prevent Taiwan from moving toward formal independence.

Stealthy submarines would pose a direct threat to the deployment of U.S. aircraft carrier battle groups, almost certainly the first line of any American response to a Taiwan crisis, according to security experts.

In conjunction with attacks on military surveillance satellites, regional U.S. bases and communication networks, the Chinese military would attempt to keep U.S. forces at a distance while attempting to overwhelm the island's defenses, they say.

"This is precisely what the submarines are for," said Allan Behm, a security analyst in Canberra and a former senior Australian Defense Department official. "They can bottle up and deny an enemy access to any given area; in this case that means the U.S. Pacific fleet."

On previous occasions of high tension over Taiwan, Washington has deployed aircraft carriers to neighboring waters, sending a signal to China that it should not use force against Taiwan.

But in a clear demonstration of the increasing vulnerability of these warships, one of China's new Song-class conventional submarines was able to remain undetected as it shadowed the U.S. carrier Kitty Hawk off the coast of Okinawa, Japan, in late 2006. It then surfaced well within torpedo range.

For some China experts in the U.S. military, this was an aggressive signal to Washington that ranked with China's destruction in January 2007 of one of its own obsolete weather satellites with an antisatellite missile. In so doing, the Chinese Navy demonstrated that it could challenge the most powerful surface combatants of the U.S. Navy in waters around Taiwan. It also gave evidence that Chinese submarine technology had advanced more rapidly than some experts had expected.

"The U.S. had no idea it was there," said Behm. "This is the great capability of very quiet, conventional submarines."

Submarine construction is clearly a top priority for the Chinese Navy, and foreign analysts have noted that in recent years it has concurrently developed four - possibly five - classes of new, locally designed and built submarines.

Some experts have suggested that China is taking the same path as Germany and Japan, which once relied heavily on submarines in a bid to compete with the British and U.S. navies.

The attraction of submarines, the experts say, is that they are extremely cost-effective weapons compared with surface warships. For a relatively modest investment, stealthy submarines can threaten much more valuable military and cargo vessels and attack targets on land with missiles.

The suspicion alone that a submarine may be in the area can force an adversary to operate more cautiously, while diverting resources to expensive and complex detection and tracking.

In further evidence of progress in submarine technology, China displayed photographs and models of its new Shang-class nuclear-powered attack submarine at a Beijing exhibition in July celebrating the 80th anniversary of the People's Liberation Army. The official People's Daily newspaper reported that two submarines of this class are now in service.

In October, Hans Kristensen, a nuclear weapons researcher with the Federation of American Scientists, spotted on a Google Earth satellite image what appeared to be two of China's Jin-class nuclear powered ballistic missile submarines. Some military analysts were surprised that China had built another submarine of this class so soon after the first, in 2004.

And to put the improvement of its fleet on a fast track, China has also taken delivery of 12 advanced Kilo-class conventional submarines from Russia. These submarines are among the quietest and most difficult to detect, according to veteran submariners.

Experts say the designs of the newest Chinese submarines show evidence of technical assistance from Russia.

Analysts have also suggested that some of China's conventional submarines have been fitted with so-called air-independent propulsion systems. This would allow the submarines to patrol for extended periods under water without needing to draw in air for the diesel engines used to charge their batteries.

A number of naval experts have noticed that the growth in China's submarine power has occurred while U.S. antisubmarine warfare capability has declined from its peak during the Cold War.

What is more, in case of conflict over Taiwan, Chinese submarines would have the advantage of operating in a favorable environment for undersea warfare.

The waters of the East China Sea, South China Sea and Yellow Sea are of uneven depth, with considerable background noise, complex thermal behavior and strong currents. These factors make it very difficult, if not impossible, for surface ships and aircraft to detect stealthy submarines, even with the most advanced passive sonar and other sensors.

China's expanding fleet of submarines (http://www.iht.com/bin/printfriendly.php?id=9826766)

Kosovo – Independence May Fuel Wars Worldwide
Written by Tony Dolz
February 27 2008

Every nation has the right to defend its borders and the obligation to protect the people that it serves. ....

.... Muslim Albanian insurgents funded by Bin Laden, the same Bin Laden that funded the 911 act of terrorism against America, defied the sovereignty and authority of Serbia over its Kosovo Province. When the Serbian government used its political and military power to defend its territory, it was attacked viciously by the United States and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) in violation of its own charter.

Years later, America was attacked by Muslim terrorists funded by Bin Laden and it used this incident to wage war against Afghanistan and Iraq. Ironic?

At the same time U.S. federal elected representatives (The United States Congress) under the seductive and corrupting influence of corporate interests that employ cheap legal and illegal labor, has allowed 20 million aliens from Mexico to invade the United States (cheap labor).

Mexico has taught its school children for 160 years that the United States stole it southwestern states from Mexico and that Mexico will take them back one day. This is a dangerous situation similar to the demographic takeover of Kosovo by Albania. If Mexican insurgents attempt to take territory, will the United States use its political and military power to retain its states, like California? In light of its 78 day merciless bombing of Serbia for protecting its territory - that would be ironic also.

Kosovo insurgents declared independence from Serbia, Sunday, February 18, 2008. In Europe alone there are 23 separatist movements in the balance of renewed flare ups. Many anxious Europeans can hear in their heads war plans being made in a plethora of ethnic minority languages and accents as real as if they were present in the room.

Who hasn’t been on vacation in Spain and not worried ever so slightly about becoming an accidental victim of Basque separatist terror?

This past weekend the Turkish government clashed with Kurdish Separatist (Kurdish Worker's Party) leaving 41 Kurds and 2 Turkish soldiers dead. While also the same weekend Muslim Pattani United Liberation Separatists claim responsibility for bombs that left serveral people dead in Thailand.

The green flag to Kosovo and other separatists movements leave us who vacation with our families in many of these locations with terrorial claims, which also happen to be vacation paradises, with something to worry about.

Separatist rebellions and civil wars are among the most bloody of conflicts. One in ten living Americans died in the American Civil War!

What if a foreign power had interveened militarily to force President Lincoln to surrender the southern states during the Civil War? How would today's history books treat the meddling role of the imperial power that forced America to lose half of its territory to the Confederacy?

Will this recognition of separatist independence ignite a firestorm in Turkish Northern Cyprus? Are we going to see Georgia go up in flame torn by separatist violence? Will the Serbians living in Kosovo’s northern part now declare their independence and will America, which has disrespected Serbia’s territorial integrity, be forced to protect militarily the territorial integrity of the ludicrous independent Kosovo, a country that has never existed before last Sunday?

Are we prepared to risks peace and stability in Europe in order to reward ethnic Albanian Muslim terrorist’s for their takeover of Serbia’s ancestral homeland, the province of Kosovo?

The Muslim terrorist Kosovo Liberation Army was established in the mid 1990s. Its goal was to create a greater Muslim Albania out of Macedonia, Albania and Kosovo. Kosovo has been under a United Nations protectorate since the end of the war that saw Kosovo taken from Serbia in 1999. Life in Kosovo has been a nightmare for Serbians, Jews and Roma (gypsies) ever since.

Muslim Albanians civilians have burned many Christian churches, forced Serbians to flee the province and terrorized those that remained. Law enforcement by the United Nation forces have been colossally ineffective at maintaining the peace and to complicate matters the Muslim terrorists who grappled the province from Serbia were given police roles by the UN protectorate. Under UN protection the insurgents also have control of the Parliament. This is like assigning the mice to guard the cheese.

Serbia after the war was corrupted into a puppet government role by the United States, which promised economic aid and a path for elitists in Serbia to get rich on post war reconstruction in exchange for submission and tolerance of the UN protectorate of Kosovo.

After more than 8 years, the inevitable is happening. The Albanian terrorist who were exempted by the United States government of Bill Clinton from signing the UN agreement over the role of the UN in the province have unilaterally declared independence in violation of the United Nation resolution that created the protectorate.

The post-war government of Serbia which since its establishment has been happy to bank the money the United States government provides and stay neutral is now forced to take a nationalistic stand (at least temporarily) to assuage the anger of the Serbian people. As it stands today, the Serbian government has categorically declared that the Serbian people will never accept Kosovo’s independence at the hands of Albanian Muslim insurgents.

cont'd next post

The United Nations has been put into a difficult situation. The Albania Muslims in Kosovo have declared their independence from both Serbia and the United Nations. Should the UN accept the declaration of independence or should it maintain its grip of authority?

Russia, a permanent member of the Security Council, and Serbia have lodged a complaint claiming that only the United Nations has the authority to accept or reject Kosovo’s independence. It is also believed by international legal scholars that Serbia must have a say in the matter of independence if there is to be one.

Incidentally, the European Union is trying to elbow in. The EU got involved indirectly through NATOs participation during the 78 day bombing of Serbia.

The Kosovo Liberation Army had foot soldiers but not a navy or an air force. The United States and NATO filled in as the air force of the Muslim insurgents without going as far was flying the KLA flag on the airplane tails. The KLA was handed a victory by the U.S. and NATO’s air force.

NATO meddling was a violation of its charter. NATO is not authorized to be an offensive force. Its charter only allows NATO member participation when another NATO member comes under attack. The fighting took place exclusively within Serbian territory. The CIA secretly provided armament to the Muslim insurgents invalidating any semblance of neutrality for the United States in the post war accommodations. The fighting in Kosovo was a civil war fought within Serbian territory. No NATO country was threatened or invaded. NATOs bombing were the first time its military power was used offensively in its 50 year history.

The inappropriate use of force by NATO sets a tarnished precedent for its relevancy and credibility. European Union meddling in Serbia’s internal affairs is controversial and its prodding is contradictory. For example, the politically ambitious EU foreign policy chief, Javier Solana, became the first EU bureaucrat operative to land in Pristina to prop up the insurgent Muslim regime after its declaration of independence.

The first contradiction is that Kosovo is ruled under a United Nations protectorate not an EU protectorate. While Solano paraded through Pristina, back in his homeland of Spain, the Spanish government trembled at the thought that the Kosovo insurgency may serve as justification of the Basque ETA separatist organization to continue or step up its struggle for independence from Spain.

Is the EU prepared to deploy troops to Kosovo for the next 99 years? That would be humorous. The EU, some argue, does not have a mandate to act as a government. Lately it failed to muster enough support for a "Constitution", something that only a nation requires. In any case, the EU has no armed forces, nor is it authorized to raise an army. So if the EU has no role as a "government" and it has no armed forces, then what is Javier Solano doing in Kosovo negotiating with the Muslim separatist government?

The area is a tinderbox. There are preparations for a massive protest in Belgrade in the coming days.

Many separatists’ movements around the world, Cyprus, for example, may be ironically waiting their turn for support from the NATO air force to press their separatist demands.

Let’s puts this mismanagement of international affairs by the United States’ Bill Clinton and George Bush in perspective. There are troubling parallels between Serbia’s civil war and the loss of Kosovo, which we witness today; and grave political mistakes now brewing in the United States.

Only a derelict and corrupt government would allow its nation to be invaded by over 20 million illegal aliens from a bordering country that has taught its school children for 160 years that it has legitimate territorial claims against it. Mexico has claimed for 160 years that the Southwestern states of the United States belong to Mexico and that one it day it will retake it. 20 million Mexican illegal aliens is not a static numbers, the numbers increase annually at the rate of 1 to 2 ½ million per year. Mexico has already deployed in the United States an reconquest civilian force equivalent to 10% of its population.

Making matters worse, an Illegal alien could trespass the United States' border 8 months pregnant and the child, still in the womb, can be enrolled for tax paid pre-natal care. Upon being delivered at taxpayer expense in a county hospital it will be presented with a birth certificate that says - U.S. Citizen. The millions of children born to illegal aliens in the United States are said to be U.S. citizens and become charges of the state and national treasury.

One day, not in our lifetime but possibly in our children’s lifetime, terrorist separatists, the equal of Hashim Thaci in Kosovo, may emerge to lead millions with loyalty to Mexico towards civil war in America. It is not an unrealistic scenario.

Do the remaining Serbians in Kosovo have anything to fear from the insurgent Albanian Muslims declaration of independence today?

George Bush, from a press conference while on his tour of Africa, assured the Serbian people Sunday that they are safe living in Kosovo. But wait, before you die laughing: George Bush also assured them that the border between Serbia and Kosovo will be secured - guaranteed!

Kosovo – Independence May Fuel Wars Worldwide (http://nationalwriterssyndicate.com/content/view/399/2/)

U.S. says it launched missile attack in Somalia
Military reportedly going after al-Qaida suspect in border town

Pentagon officials said Monday the United States launched an air strike in Somalia to go after a terrorist suspect.

In the strike early Monday, Somali police said three missiles hit a Somali town held by Islamic extremists, destroying a home and seriously injuring eight people.

A Pentagon official said the U.S. military was going after an al-Qaida suspect in the town. As yet, there is no word on whether the suspect was hit. The official spoke on condition of anonymity because the official was not authorized to speak publicly about the strike.
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The strike follows one last year in which the U.S. shelled suspected al-Qaida targets in Somalia.

Prior to the statement, local witnesses said that planes fired three missiles that struck Dobley, some four miles from the Kenyan border. Remnants of an Islamic force that had once ruled much of southern Somalia took over Dobley last week.

A local official told Reuters that the missile was fired by a U.S. aircraft. "Two U.S missiles hit a house in Dobley early this morning," one local politician, who asked not to be named, told the wire service by telephone, adding that shrapnel from the missiles had been found.

"The town is very tense. People have started fleeing because they fear there might be more attacks."

8 wounded
"We woke up with a loud and big bang and when we came out we found our neighbor's house completely obliterated as if no house existed here," a resident of the town, Fatuma Abdullahi, told The Associated Press. "We are taking shelter under trees. Three planes were flying over our heads."

A police officer who gave only his first name, Siyad, because he was not authorized to speak to the media said the eight wounded were hit by shrapnel. He also said the planes were military aircraft.

An aid worker in Dobley said up to six people were still trapped in the rubble by midday. It was not clear if these victims were included in the police officer's tally.

"A minimum of two bombs were dropped," the aid worker, who asked that his name not be used because he is not authorized to speak to the media, told the AP by telephone. "Between four and six people are in the rubble."

Clan elder Ahmed Nur Dalab said a senior Islamic official, Hassan Turki, was in town Sunday to mediate between his fighters and a militia loyal to the government. Turki's forces took over Dobley last week.

In early 2007, Somali troops and their Ethiopian allies drove out a radical Islamic group to which Turki is allied that had taken over much of southern Somalia. The Islamic forces have fought to regain power.

Mired in chaos
Somalia has been mired in chaos since 1991, when warlords overthrew dictator Mohamed Siad Barre and then turned on each other.

On Monday, a rights group said all sides in Somalia's long-running conflict are united in at least one goal — trying to curtail independent media by "killing, arresting and threatening" reporters.

The report by London-based Amnesty International was released a day after government raids shut down three independent radio stations in Mogadishu. The soldiers forced the stations off the air, arrested a journalist and seized equipment.

"The troops came in, took our equipment and arrested our boss without explanation. We do not know why they are targeting us," Mohamed Abdullahi, a Shabelle radio staff member, told the AP. Shabelle's director, Muqtar Mohamed Hirabe, was arrested.

Mohamed Abukar, a presenter and producer at Radio Horn Afrik, said troops broke down its doors and ordered the station off the air. The other shuttered station was Simba.

Government officials declined to comment on the raids.

The targeted media houses have criticized both the government and the Islamic militants who have been trying to topple the administration through a bloody insurgency.

At least nine journalists have been killed since February 2007 and death threats and arrests have forced at least 50 others to seek refuge in neighboring countries, Amnesty said.

"The killings, arrests and death threats targeting Somali journalists are not just another unfortunate byproduct of the conflict and general insecurity in Somalia _ they are a deliberate and systematic attempt by all parties to the conflict to stem the flow of information out of the country," said Michelle Kagari, deputy director of Amnesty's Africa program.

Kuwaiti: Best if Israel, not U.S., destroys Iranian nukes
By News Agencies
14:28 09/03/2008

The destruction of Iran's nuclear capabilities would be in the interest of the Arab nations in the Gulf, and it would be less embarrassing if it was done by Israel rather than the U.S., a top Kuwaiti strategist said in remarks published Sunday.

Officially Kuwait, like the other members of the Gulf Cooperation Council, wants a peaceful solution to the nuclear standoff between Tehran and the West and will not allow the U.S. to use its territories for any attack on Iran.

But when asked in an interview with the daily Al-Siyassah about the consequences of an Israeli strike on Iran's nuclear reactors, analyst and former government adviser Sami al-Faraj said it would not be such a bad thing.
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"Honestly speaking, they would be achieving something of great strategic value for the GCC by stopping Iran's tendency for hegemony over the area," he said, adding that "nipping it in the bud by Israeli hands would be less embarrassing for us than if the Americans did it."

Al-Faraj said Tehran was interfering in Iraq, Lebanon, and the Palestinian territories, and inciting strife between Sunnis and Shiites.

"The question is what would it do if it were a nuclear nation? We have to call a spade a spade and say that burying the military nuclear Iranian project is in the interest of GCC states, and other countries in the area," added al-Faraj, who heads the independent Kuwait Center for Strategy Studies.

Tehran has denied it is seeking nuclear weapons and insists its program is for peaceful purposes. Despite three sets of United Nations sanctions, it is still defying demands to suspend uranium enrichment.

GCC countries -Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Oman and Bahrain - have announced they want to use nuclear energy for civilian uses as well.

Al-Faraj told the daily the GCC offered to cooperate with Tehran on a joint nuclear fuel station, but Iran turned down the offer.

Kuwait, Bahrain and Qatar all host U.S. military facilities.

Peres: Iran is the world's greatest problem

President Shimon Peres on Sunday called Iran the world's greatest problem but said Israel would not act on its own against the Islamic nation's nuclear program.

"Iran is a danger not just for Israel but for the rest of the world, the combination of being a center of terror and developing a nuclear option is the most dangerous you can think of," he said at his official residence, a day ahead of an official visit France.

Peres said an active Iranian nuclear reactor would make the world ungovernable. But he added that the problem was not Israel's alone.

"Israel will not be forced [to act]. Israel will do whatever she should do, but Israel doesn't claim that she is the leader of the world," he said.

Kuwaiti: Best if Israel, not U.S., destroys Iranian nukes (http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/962291.html)

The Annual Israeli Intelligence Report indicates Israel could faces attacks on five different fronts

The Annual Israeli Intelligence Report prepared by the IDF's intelligence branch with the help of the Mossad, shows that Lebanon is crumbling and falling into the hands of Hezbollah, that Syria remains a threat and that Gaza and the worldwide Islamic Jihad movement are a threat to the Jewish state as well.

The most significant danger of all for Israel is Iran's nuclear program and their connection to Hamas in the Gaza Strip and that Israel's Northern border with Hezbollah, which is a highly flammable situation, realizing that if Hezbollah attacks Israel, this will ignite other Arab fronts as well. The report reveals there are five hostile operative fronts: Syria, Lebanon, Gaza, Iran and global Jihad with Iran the main threat as indicated by the report.

The Annual Israeli Intelligence Report is like reading out of the pages of Bible prophecy which lays out a scenario for the Middle East in the Last Days.

The IDF's intelligence branch with the help of the Mossad presents an annual report to inform the Israeli government and its military leaders of what they may expect in the next year. The reality that Israel is facing five hostile fronts: Syria, Lebanon, Gaza, Iran and global Jihad alerts the region that the situation is highly flammable and could be ignited by an attack on Israel by Hezbollah which would open up other Arab fronts.

Let me remind you that I have been reading from the Annual Israeli Intelligence Report, not the pages of Bible prophecy. Bible prophecy however, does mention the same Middle Eastern Islamic nations and almost a word-for-word scenario that will unfold in the Last Days, a scenario that can be found in all the Bible prophecy books including: Daniel 11, Ezekiel 38 and even Psalm 83. Joel 2 reveals that this Alignment of Nations will come to Jerusalem to destroy the Jewish state.

Israeli Intelligence and Bible prophecy indicate that Bible prophecy indeed will be fulfilled.

Russia's Putin vows close China ties under Medvedev
Thu Mar 13, 2008 2:48pm GMT

By Guy Faulconbridge

MOSCOW (Reuters) - Russian president Vladimir Putin promised China on Thursday that Moscow would maintain its strong ties with Beijing under his successor, Dmitry Medvedev.

Putin, who rules the world's second-biggest oil exporter, says relations with China are at an historic high while Chinese leader Hu Jintao describes Putin as his "good friend".

"Putin and Hu Jintao exchanged sincere wishes of success in future work for the stable development of the two countries in the period after the election of the new Russian president," the Kremlin press office said in a statement.

"Putin underlined that the course of comprehensive development of Russian-Chinese strategic cooperation will be continued in the future," the Kremlin said.

The two leaders meet regularly and Hu was one of the first world leaders to congratulate Medvedev after his March 2 election as Russia's next president.

Medvedev, who will be sworn in as president in May, told visiting German Chancellor Angela Merkel on Saturday that he would seek continuity in Russian foreign policy.

Russia is eager to boost exports of oil, gas and nuclear products to China, the world's second biggest consumer of oil and power, though China's growing world clout is watched with some anxiety by Moscow's elite.

China, set to overtake Germany as the world's third biggest economy, is Russia's number two trading partner after the European Union with $35 billion in 2007 bilateral trade.

China's state-owned Sinopec Group has a multi-billion dollar investment with Russia's biggest oil producer, Rosneft. They jointly run Siberia's UdmurtNeft oil producer and share the Sakhalin-3 Veninsk exploration block off Russia's Pacific coast.

Russia, whose $1.3 trillion economy is booming for a tenth straight year, has forged close ties with China on a number of world issues, including Iran and North Korea.

But relations over the past century between Moscow and Beijing have run hot and cold.

China and the Soviet Union went from being best friends in the 1950s to suspicious rivals a decade later when they fought a series of border skirmishes after falling out over ideological principles.

In 2007, Putin and Hu presided over their two countries' biggest joint military exercises as part of Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO), a regional grouping of growing importance that includes Russia, China and Central Asian states.

Russia's Putin vows close China ties under Medvedev (http://uk.reuters.com/article/oilRpt/idUKL1384078120080313)

Lavrov goes to the Middle East with a hope
17:17
17/ 03/ 2008

MOSCOW. (RIA Novosti commentator Maria Appakova) - On March 19, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov will go on a Middle East tour, visiting Syria, Israel and the territory controlled by the Palestinian National Authority (PNA).

Together with Iran, the sides in the above triangle determine the region's future. The choice is between a peaceful settlement of the conflict and, if all arguments fail, war.

Lavrov is going to the region shortly before an Arab League summit, to be held in Damascus later this month, and the Lebanese parliament's 16th attempt to elect the country's president. Failure of the Lebanese elections would undermine the Damascus summit and probably drive Syria into international isolation. Damascus is rumored to be manipulating the political situation in Lebanon and blocking the elections there, according to some analysts.

What is Russia's role in the region?

Lavrov has said he wants to see which regional forces are ready for the international conference on the Middle East to be held in Moscow. Last week in Paris, he said that Russia would host the conference only if all of the parties concerned were ready.

According to Lavrov, the Middle East quartet comprising the United States, Russia, the European Union and the UN believes the conference should be held.

Participants in the Middle East meeting held in Annapolis last November agreed that the PNA and Israel should resume talks. Acting on Russia's urging, they also noted in the meeting's documents that Israel should discuss settlement with Syria and Lebanon.

The Moscow conference was proposed as a follow-up to the Annapolis meeting, especially regarding Israel's talks with Syria and Lebanon. However, Israel refused to hold open talks with Syria on the latter's terms, in particular the unconditional surrender of the Golan Heights.

The regional media reported that Israel and Syria have been discussing their problems unofficially for a while, which means that the Moscow conference is quite possible.

However, the optimism sparked in Annapolis has gradually given way to disappointment. Israeli territory is again being shelled from the Gaza Strip, an unprecedentedly violent terrorist attack occurred in Jerusalem, and Israel is carrying on military operations in the Palestinian territories and building new settlements.

Relations between Palestinian groups, above all Hamas and Fatah, remain strained. Fatah blames this on the Islamist leaders living outside Palestine, primarily in Damascus. Hezbollah, a Lebanese Shiite organization, backed by Syria and Iran, is increasing its influence on radical Palestinian groups.

The Palestinian-Israeli talks have stalled, with both sides regularly proclaiming the demise of the Annapolis process. A meeting between Palestinian and Israeli politicians, if held soon, would most likely fail to bring the desired results.

This is not a good atmosphere for holding a peace conference. Although many politicians, above all Arab ones, support the idea, it can hardly be implemented any time soon if the parties concerned want not only to get together, but also achieve practical positive results.

Lavrov is going to the Middle East not just to hear practical promises from regional leaders and negotiate a date for their arrival in Moscow. His silent mission is to strengthen communication between Syria and Israel and encourage them to trust each other.

Is this possible? The question has no answer, at least for the general public, but success would solve many regional problems, including promoting Palestinian-Israeli peace and easing the Lebanese crisis.

Lavrov goes to the Middle East with a hope (http://en.rian.ru/analysis/20080317/101494708.html)

Turkey wrestles with Islam's place
March 18, 2008
Turkey's prime minister must build trust in issues of mosque and state.

Imagine trying to ban a fairly elected ruling party, which won in a landslide only last year. Ludicrous. Yet such an attempt is now before Turkey's highest court on the grounds that secular government should not push Islam on society.

It is not out of the realm of possibility that the court will decide to hear this case, which was brought March 14 by Turkey's chief prosecutor. And if it does, it may favor the prosecutor, who charges the Islamic Party of Justice, or AKP, with subverting the country's secular Constitution. Since the 1970s, the court has shuttered four pro-Islamic parties.

The separation of mosque and state is an existential issue for this NATO member that bridges Europe and the Middle East. Although a mostly Muslim country, modern Turkey is built on the secularist model of Mustafa Kemal Ataturk, who introduced the Roman alphabet and women's suffrage after the collapse of the Ottoman Empire after World War I.

Turkey stands as proof that democracy and Islam can coexist, and do so in a vibrant economy. Were that not of note in the region, Iran's theocracy would not have tried to stem a flood of Iranian visitors to Turkey by limiting Turkish tourism advertising last year.

But the indictment accuses the ruling party of "taking gradual steps" toward a society that "takes religion as its reference."

Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan, whose mildly Islamist AKP has governed since 2002, denied the charges Sunday, stating that the distance between the AKP and fundamentalism is "like the difference between day and night." He reaffirmed his loyalty to secularism.

The problem is the secularists simply don't believe him. Trust is at the heart of this issue, and Mr. Erdogan must focus on building trust.

Since the AKP came to power, Turkey's per capita GDP has more than doubled and legal reforms have enabled it to begin membership talks with the European Union. But that doesn't remove suspicions of a hidden Islamist agenda. Erdogan's government had to step back from an attempt to criminalize adultery. Last week's indictment cites AKP-led neighborhoods that have banned alcohol.

The biggest complaint, however, is a new law that lifts a ban on women's head scarves in universities – a hugely divisive issue which is also before the high court.

Erdogan may feel no compulsion for trust building. Were an election held today, his party would likely best its vote from last summer. Erdogan has also won nationalist points by pursuing Kurdish terrorists in northern Iraq.

The devout prime minister has erred – not in allowing women to cover their heads if they want to, but in pursuing this freedom without moving just as quickly on democratic reforms that reassure (a complaint from the EU as well).

The EU is pushing for greater freedom of political speech in Turkey and a new constitution that improves rights for ethnic and religious minorities. Erdogan should act soon. He should also assure women that those who don't wear head scarves will be just as protected as those who do.

Turkey is struggling to find the right balance between its secular tradition and an increasingly devout Muslim population. Erdogan can help by taking more steps toward democratic freedom while he tries to secure greater religious freedom for fellow Muslims.

Turkey wrestles with Islam's place (http://www.csmonitor.com/2008/0318/p08s01-comv.htm)

Russian parliament to warn Georgia on NATO entry

2 hours, 22 minutes ago

MOSCOW (Reuters) - Russia's parliament will vote on Friday on a resolution calling for the Kremlin to consider recognising Georgia's breakaway regions if the pro-Western former Soviet state joins NATO.

The resolution, a draft of which was obtained by Reuters on Thursday, is not binding but is likely to stoke Western fears that Russia is inching towards recognizing the Moscow-backed Abkhazia and South Ossetia regions.

Russia is firmly opposed to Georgia joining NATO and some analysts and diplomats say Moscow is using the threat of recognition to deter the alliance from setting Tbilisi on the path to membership at its summit in Bucharest on April 2-4.

South Ossetia and Abkhazia are internationally recognized as part of Georgia. They have run their own affairs since separatist wars in the 1990s and stepped up their campaign for recognition after Kosovo's independence earlier this year.

The resolution said that if Georgia joins NATO, Russia's government should "consider the possibility of speeding up the objective process of Abkhazia and South Ossetia acquiring sovereignty, up to recognition of their independence."

The document was drafted by pro-Kremlin lawmakers in the State Duma, or lower house of parliament. Kremlin loyalists have a large majority in the chamber. Speaker Boris Gryzlov said lawmakers would vote on the resolution on Friday.

The separatists in Abkhazia and South Ossetia say their regions are ethnically distinct from Georgia.

KOSOVO PRECEDENT

Georgia's pro-Western President Mikhail Saakashvili has said the two regions must remain part of Georgia, a stance backed by his allies in the United States and European Union.

But some Russian officials have said Kosovo's independence sets a precedent in international law making it harder to deny recognition to separatist states in the former Soviet Union.

Saakashvili has applied to NATO to grant his country a Membership Action Plan, the first step on the road to joining the alliance.

Moscow says its security will be threatened if Georgia, viewed by Russia as part of its traditional sphere of influence, joins NATO, bringing the alliance to Russia's southern border.

Russia's RIA news agency quoted Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov as saying in Tel Aviv on Thursday that NATO's growth reflected "a bloc expansion logic of the Cold War era."

U.S. State Secretary Condoleezza Rice and Defense Secretary Robert Gates visited Moscow earlier this week. "During the talks in Moscow, the Americans were given a clear-cut answer that the implementation of such plans would have the most grave consequences for our relations," Lavrov said.

Parliament's draft resolution also includes recommendations that the Russian government open missions in the two regions, ease border restrictions and boost economic ties and humanitarian aid for the separatists.

Some observers say Russia will stop short of recognizing the breakaway regions. They say the Kremlin is wary that recognition could stir up separatist movements inside its own borders, especially in the restive Chechnya region.

Russian parliament to warn Georgia on NATO entry (http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20080320/wl_nm/russia_georgia_regions_dc;_ylt=AtZVFs.B8jRnMeBewE4vBGgUewgF)

Egypt to sign nuclear pact with Russia
The Media Line News Agency
THE JERUSALEM POST
Mar. 24, 2008

Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak heads for Russia on Monday where he is expected to get assurances of Russian assistance to build a nuclear facility.

A bilateral nuclear power deal was outlined last week and is expected to be signed during the visit.

Egypt's Foreign Minister Ahmad Abu Al-Gheit said the pact would enable Egypt to tap into Russia's extensive experience in the field of nuclear energy.

The deal could allow Russia to participate in a tender to build nuclear reactors in Egypt.

The pact coincides with international efforts to pressure Iran into abandoning its nuclear program. Iran insists its program is for civilian purposes of manufacturing energy, but Western countries are concerned Teheran is covertly making an atomic bomb.

The technologies for creating nuclear energy and nuclear bombs are similar and involve many dual-usage elements and substances.

Egypt is one of several Middle Eastern countries seeking a nuclear program. Cairo wants to revive its atomic energy program, which was aborted in the wake of the Chernobyl disaster in 1986, when the dangers of such a program became apparent.

Other countries in the Middle East and North Africa region seeking nuclear programs include Jordan, Yemen, Morocco, Algeria, the Gulf countries and possibly Syria.

All the nuclear newcomers in the region, including Iran, claim their programs have peaceful purposes. But there are concerns that these countries are not only seeking new energy sources, but also wish to maintain a strategic balance in the region against Iran and against Israel's alleged atomic weapons program.

Israel maintains an official policy of ambiguity regarding its nuclear capabilities.

Russia is seen as a global leader in nuclear know-how and is helping Iran build some of its nuclear power plants, including the plant in Bushehr.

Meanwhile, the United Arab Emirates has decided to set up a nuclear agency to assess and develop its nuclear energy program. The UAE signed an agreement with France in January to help develop the program.

Under the agreement, the UAE will not enrich uranium but will import the key substance from a "trusted foreign source," according to the Emirati news agency WAM.

Egypt to sign nuclear pact with Russia (http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?cid=1205420764839&pagename=JPost%2FJPArticle%2FPrinter)

Nabil Shaath to arrive in Moscow for talks on Mideast

29.03.2008, 17.32

MOSCOW, March 29 (Itar-Tass) - Palestinian Authority president’s senior adviser Nabil Sha’ath will arrive in Moscow on Monday evening for talks on the situation in the Middle East, the settlement of the Arab-Israeli conflict, the inter-Palestinian dialogue and preparations for an international conference in Moscow, a high-ranking diplomat told Itar-Tass on Saturday.

During the visit, Sha’ath is expected to meet Russian presidential special envoy for the Middle East and Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Saltanov. The Palestinian senior adviser will be also received by Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov.

Sha’ath is planning to prepare a visit by Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas to the Russian capital. Earlier, in his talks with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov in Ramallah, West Bank, Abbas said he “will visit Moscow shortly at a time convenient for both sides”.

Abbas’ visit to Moscow will focus on the date of conducting a conference on the Middle East. Lavrov said, “We hope that we’ll be able to specify the exact date shortly.” “To this end, we held active consultations with the Quartet, the U.N. and other structures. We believe important to implement the agreements that we reached earlier in order to conduct the international conference in Moscow,” the Russian minister pointed out.

“The agenda will be very easy. The agreements were adopted in Annapolis. Everyone supported them. Now let’s confirm this support and let’ s stimulate the sides to make the agreements effective,” Lavrov said.

Abbas confirmed that Palestine is ready to take part in such meeting in Moscow. “We confirmed the need of ‘review’ meeting on the Middle East,” he said. The Palestinian leader expressed gratitude for Russia upheld the efforts aimed at settling the Palestinian-Israeli conflict.

Nabil Shaath to arrive in Moscow for talks on Mideast (http://www.itar-tass.com/eng/level2.html?NewsID=12529150&PageNum=0)

Shedding some more light on this topic.   The prophesy in Ezekiel 38 &39 are closer to being fulfilled than ever before.

Ezekiel 38:11 &14
   11And thou shalt say, I will go up to the land of unwalled villages; I will go to them that are at rest, that dwell safely, all of them dwelling without walls, and having neither bars nor gates,

14Therefore, son of man, prophesy and say unto Gog, Thus saith the Lord GOD; In that day when my people of Israel dwelleth safely, shalt thou not know it?

Remeber in order for the entire prophesy to be fulfilled, Israel with have to be at peace.

January 11,2008 President Bush went over to the Middle East and met with Isreal's leaders and Palestinian Prime minister to find a solution to bring peace to the region. We know as children of GOD that Jerusalem is Israel's Holy City and the land that GOD gave Israel.    But at the end of his meeting with them, President Bush declared it is time for Israel to end it's occupation in Jerusalem. Both claim Jerusalem as their capitol city. But President Bush has decided to see to it himself that by the end of this year a peace deal between the 2 countries that will cause Israel to leave the land that GOD promised them. Nevertheless, it is in the works and President Bush, who use to claim that he was a christian will see to it himself that they are put out of their home land.

   The end is closer than ever before and we must witness for the Lord like never before. Russia has made idle threats against the U.S. saying that they better not attack Iran and try to stop them from obtaining nuclear fuel and technology. ( Iran sits on more 50% of the worlds oil. What do they need Nuclear fuel for.) Iran wants to obtain nuclear weapons so that they can try and wipe Israel off the map.

   But all these things must be. This is why I love what the Lord Himself said:

   Luke21:28
   And when these things begin to come to pass, then look up, and lift up your heads; for your redemption draweth nigh.

Hello Armorbearer and All,

YES - there are many signs around the world that indicate the End Days of this Age of Grace might be drawing near. ONLY GOD knows, but the Bible tells us about many things to watch. These are fascinating but perilous times that we live in. We can also see the evil escalating at a terrific rate. YES - I think that the time grows short.

As Christians, I firmly believe that our highest priority should be distributing The GOOD NEWS of the GOSPEL OF THE GRACE OF GOD - JESUS CHRIST - THE CROSS! This is still the most powerful and precious message on the face of the earth. AND - we have the Promise of GOD that HIS WORD will never return void. It will always achieve HIS Will and Purpose. We might not know the results very often, but that's GOD'S Business.

Love In Christ,
Tom

GOOD NEWS!

1: Romans 3:10 NASB as it is written, "THERE IS NONE RIGHTEOUS, NOT EVEN ONE; THERE IS NONE WHO UNDERSTANDS, THERE IS NONE WHO SEEKS FOR GOD; ALL HAVE TURNED ASIDE, TOGETHER THEY HAVE BECOME USELESS; THERE IS NONE WHO DOES GOOD, THERE IS NOT EVEN ONE."

2: Romans 3:23 NASB for all have sinned and fall short of the glory of God,

3: Romans 5:12 NASB Therefore, just as through one man sin entered into the world, and death through sin, and so death spread to all men, because all sinned--

4: Romans 6:23 NASB For the wages of sin is death, but the free gift of God is eternal life in Christ Jesus our Lord.

5: Romans 1:18 NASB For the wrath of God is revealed from heaven against all ungodliness and unrighteousness of men who suppress the truth in unrighteousness,

6: Romans 3:20 NASB because by the works of the Law no flesh will be justified in His sight; for through the Law comes the knowledge of sin.

7: Romans 3:27 NASB Where then is boasting? It is excluded. By what kind of law? Of works? No, but by a law of faith.

8: Romans 5:8-9 NASB But God demonstrates His own love toward us, in that while we were yet sinners, Christ died for us. Much more then, having now been justified by His blood, we shall be saved from the wrath of God through Him.

9: Romans 2:4 NASB Or do you think lightly of the riches of His kindness and tolerance and patience, not knowing that the kindness of God leads you to repentance?

10: Romans 3:22 NASB even the righteousness of God through faith in Jesus Christ for all those who believe; for there is no distinction;

11: Romans 3:28 NASB For we maintain that a man is justified by faith apart from works of the Law.

12: Romans 10:9 NASB that if you confess with your mouth Jesus as Lord, and believe in your heart that God raised Him from the dead, you will be saved;

13: Romans 4:21 NASB and being fully assured that what God had promised, He was able also to perform.

14: Romans 4:24 NASB but for our sake also, to whom it will be credited, as those who believe in Him who raised Jesus our Lord from the dead,

15: Romans 5:1 NASB Therefore, having been justified by faith, we have peace with God through our Lord Jesus Christ,

16: Romans 10:10 NASB for with the heart a person believes, resulting in righteousness, and with the mouth he confesses, resulting in salvation.

17: Romans 10:13 NASB for "WHOEVER WILL CALL ON THE NAME OF THE LORD WILL BE SAVED."

Thanks be unto GOD for HIS unspeakable GIFT!, JESUS CHRIST, our Lord and Saviour forever!

Russia army vows steps if Georgia and Ukraine join NATO
Fri Apr 11, 2008 11:38am EDT

MOSCOW (Reuters) - Russia will take military and other steps along its borders if ex-Soviet Ukraine and Georgia join NATO, Russian news agencies quoted the armed forces' chief of staff as saying on Friday.

"Russia will take steps aimed at ensuring its interests along its borders," the agencies quoted General Yuri Baluyevsky as saying. "These will not only be military steps, but also steps of a different nature," he said, without giving details.

Russia is opposed to NATO plans to grant membership to ex-Soviet Ukraine and Georgia, saying such a move would pose a direct threat to its security and endanger the fragile balance of forces in Europe.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said earlier this week that Moscow will do everything it can to prevent the two countries, run by pro-Western governments, from becoming NATO members.

Maka Gigauri, a spokeswoman for Georgia's foreign ministry, said Baluyevsky's words were "a demonstration of open aggression against Georgia."

"This is why we, Ukraine and Georgia, want to become NATO members. Such attempts by Russia to prevent Georgia and Ukraine from becoming NATO members will prompt an appropriate reaction from the leaders of NATO member states."

Ukrainian officials were not immediately available for comment.

President Vladimir Putin has said that if NATO military installations ever appear in Ukraine, Moscow would have to target its missiles at the country.

At a summit in Bucharest this month, NATO members turned down requests from Georgia and Ukraine to be granted a Membership Action Plan, which would have set them on the road to membership.

But under pressure from Washington, one of the strongest advocates of enlargement in the alliance, NATO gave a commitment that the two countries would be allowed to join eventually.

Asked to respond to the Russian general's comments, a NATO spokeswoman in Brussels said any European democracy could apply for membership of the alliance. "This is nothing new and no third country or party has a right to veto," she said.

"In Bucharest, NATO heads of state and government decided Georgia and Ukraine would not be granted Membership Action Plans at this stage, but membership of those two countries is not a matter of if but when."

Russian news agencies quoted Baluyevsky as telling reporters that it was premature to talk about Georgia and Ukraine joining NATO any time soon. "This is not the end of the day," he said. "We will live and see."

Russia army vows steps if Georgia and Ukraine join NATO (http://www.reuters.com/article/newsOne/idUSL1143027920080411)

Israel fears Iran may ship Hezbollah arms via Beirut port
By Barak Ravid, Haaretz Correspondent
13/04/2008

Israel is concerned that Iran might start moving weapons to Hezbollah by means of ships that anchor in the Beirut port, government sources in Jerusalem said.

The sources said oversight of marine vessels by UNIFIL (the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon) was not efficient enough to enforce an embargo on weapons shipments into Lebanon and to pinpoint such shipments.

A government source in Jerusalem said Saturday that a year ago Israel transmitted to Germany, which at that time commanded UNIFIL's marine forces, that it suspected Iran would transfer weapons to Hezbollah by sea. The source said Israel voiced its concerns over the marine forces' insufficient control over the coast, and that Germany promised to increase its supervision.

"The problem is that UNIFIL's checks are not strict enough and are simply not serious," the source said. He said that UNIFIL soldiers do not physically examine the cargo in suspicious vessels, making do with comparing the vessel's name and registration number to the registration of the ships in the Beirut port.

"We are afraid that many ships registered in the port as carrying certain cargo are in fact carrying cargo of a totally different kind," the source said.

A response from UNIFIL could not be obtained over the weekend.

Iran concedes that it provides moral support and money to Hezbollah, but denies supplying it with weapons, which would be in violation of a UN resolution.

The Israel Defense Forces said last month that Iran is sending Hezbollah weapons by means of planes and trucks, passing through Turkish territory without the knowledge of the government in Ankara, and from there to Syria and Lebanon.

In the two years since the Second Lebanon War, Hezbollah has been working to rehabilitate itself and increase its strength. The organization has considerably increased the number of rockets in its possession, and it now has tens of thousands of them.

According to the Israeli government source, Hezbollah has placed two thirds of these rockets south of the Litani River in the area under UNIFIL control, where the organization is not allowed to operate.

Over the past month, Israel has been lobbying in the UN to promote the release of a presidential statement by the Security Council regarding the ongoing smuggling of weapons to Hezbollah despite the arms embargo. However, the lack of consensus among the countries on the Security Council, along with American and French concerns over a worsening of the political crisis in Lebanon, have impeded progress on the statement.

About a month ago, responsibility for UNIFIL's marine forces was transferred from Germany to Italy. The marine force has been operating since October 2006, when European gun boats began patroling Lebanon's territorial waters, allowing Israel to lift the sea blockade it had enforced upon the outbreak of the war.

When the force, which consists of 11 ships and works closely alongside the Lebanese navy, locates a suspicious vessel, it sends it to be checked by the Lebanese authorities, usually at the Beirut port. The force has so far preliminarily checked 13,000 vessels, but has sent only 70 suspicious ones for comprehensive examination by the Lebanese authorities.

Israel fears Iran may ship Hezbollah arms via Beirut port (http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/974162.html)

India to help Iran build a crucial rail link

Project to be on BOT basis

To help develop the Chabahar port

Also assist launch of Middle East Railway

NEW DELHI: India has agreed to help Iran in constructing a crucial rail link that is also a part of the United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (UNESCAP)’s Trans-Asian Railway (TAR) project. “We will be cooperating with the Iranian authorities in developing the 600-km long Chabahar port and Fahraj rail line that will provide India a multi-modal transport corridor to Russia via Iran,” said Railway Board Chairman K.C. Jena.

Mr. Jena, also the Chairman of the Union of International Railway (UIC), was recently in Iran where he met Iran’s Deputy Minister for Roads and Transportation and president of Iran’s national railway ‘Rah Ahan Iran’, Hassan Ziari.

“This week, a team of experts from the Indian Railways will be visiting Iran to work out the details and other modalities of the project that would be executed under the ‘build-operate-transfer’ (BOT) basis,” said Mr. Jena.

The Railway Board Chairman said the rail line was vital for the proposed North-South international corridor linking India, Iran, Azerbaijan and Russia.

The corridor envisaged a direct link to St. Petersburg from Fahraj port through Amirabad in Iran and Astrakhan in Russia.

“Since the Chabahar port is close to Gujarat, the Indian Railways can explore utilising the route for multimodal transport of goods to Iran and Russia. Similarly, transporting goods to Afghanistan via Fahraj could be another good option. It will also provide direct access to Europe,” he said.

Mr. Jena said the next UIC meeting would be held in Seoul next month and by that time the three countries were likely to sign an agreement on this project.

India was keen on this project as the direct India-Iran rail link was pending for long because of the 545 km-long missing railway line between Iran and Pakistan.

Stating that India had also decided to help Iran develop the Chabahar port and Aprin dry port, Mr. Jena said leading Indian consultancy firms including RITES Ltd. and CONCOR were likely to carry out feasibility reports for integrated planning for development of these ports and rail links. Iran had also sought help in laying track, upgrading its train operations, signalling system and electrical work. “India will also help in the launch of the Middle East Railway Academy in Iran under the aegis of the UIC,” he said.

India to help Iran build a crucial rail link (http://www.hindu.com/2008/04/25/stories/2008042555891400.htm)

Ahmadinejad Wants Russian Troops in Iran?
25/04/2008

By Amir Taheri

Why is the leadership in Tehran anxious to give Russia the right to land troops in Iran?

The question is not fanciful. The Islamic Republic is conducting a devious campaign to prepare public opinion for that eventuality.

The message is relayed through deliberately vague terms that diplomats understand immediately while the general public does not.

The device is to revive two treaties that most students of Iranian history thought were dead and buried long ago.

The first is the 1921 Treaty that the government of Sayyed Ziauddin Tabatabai, soon after coming to power in a putsch, signed with Vladimir Lenin’s Bolshevik regime.

At the time the Bolsheviks had some troops in the Iranian province of Gilan on the Caspian Sea, supporting a rebellion led by a leftist mullah known as Mirza Kuchak Khan of the Jungle. At the same time, the British were using Iranian territory to ferry troops and materiel to anti-Bolshevik nationalist forces in Transcaucasia.

Under the treaty, Lenin agreed to cancel the debts Iran had accumulated towards the Tsarist Empire. He also undertook to withdraw his troops from Gilan. The treaty revised relations in the Caspian Sea, granting Iran greater rights of fishing and navigation. That amounted to a generous gesture towards Tabatabai’s new government that, still fragile, needed all the good news it could get in relations with the major powers.

Nevertheless, as always when a weak nation makes a pact with a much larger neighbour, the treaty had a sting in its tail. It gave the Russians the right to land troops in Iran when and if troops of any other foreign power arrived in Iran. At the time it was Britain that Lenin had in mind. For his part, Tabatabai wanted to use the threat of Russian military intervention as a means of forcing the British to end their military presence in Iran.

However, in one of those twists of history, the treaty was never used for its original purpose. The British soon abandoned their anti-Bolshevik allies whom they found too weak to defeat Lenin’s new empire. Lenin, for his part, believing he could add Iran to his empire through ideological agitation rather than conquest, abandoned the Mullah of the Jungle and withdrew the Soviet troops.

In 1941, however, Soviet troops, this time under Stalin, invaded Iran.

The legal pretext was the 1921 treaty. Soviet propaganda claimed that the presence of a few German military experts and, possibly, spies, in Tehran amounted to a foreign hostile force on Iranian soil. Reza Shah, the Iranian monarch, had refused to kick the Germans out, possibly in the hope that Hitler would defeat Russia and Britain, Iran’s two principal enemies for 150 years.

Within days of the Soviet invasion, backed by a British invasion of Iranian territory from Iraq, Reza Shah was forced into exile.

The new Iranian government, under Prime Minister Muhammad-Ali Forughi, had to accept the legality of the invasion under the 1921 Treaty.

Nevertheless, both sides felt that a new treaty was needed to determine the status of Soviet troops in Iran. Negotiations were railroaded at top speed, with the British supporting the Soviets in the name of their alliance against Nazi Germany.

The Iranian side, weak and disorganised in a country under foreign occupation, protested. But, with Soviet and British guns pointed at its head, it ended up signing the 1941 Treaty.

The new treaty, recalling that of 1921, reaffirmed the right of the USSR to send troops to Iran if and when Moscow felt it was threatened by a third power’s presence in Iran.

The two treaties entered Iran’s diplomatic memory as black moments in history. Abbas-Ali Khalatbari, Iran’s Foreign Minister between 1971 and 1978, described them as “two bleeding wounds in our heart.”

In 1946, as Stalin’s troops were forced to leave, the Shah declared the two treaties “dead and buried”. But, facing a strong Soviet-backed Communist Party and its allies, he was too weak to ask the parliament to formally cancel the treaties.

In 1963, the Soviets launched a campaign to revive the treaties.

They claimed that the arrival in Iran of American military instructors, invited to help build the new Iranian air force, amounted to “a foreign hostile presence” under the terms of the treaties.

The Iranians ignored the Soviet campaign and, on a number of occasions, announced a unilateral cancellation of the treaties.

The most significant official move to cancel the treaties came after the fall of the Shah.

In 1980, Ibrahim Yazdi, a US citizen of Iranian origin serving as Khomeini’s Foreign Minister, solemnly announced that the newly created Islamic Republic did not recognise the treaties.

A diplomatic seesaw battle ensued in which the Iranian side stood by Yazdi’s declaration.

The matter rested in limbo, with most experts agreeing that the treaties were dead, until the fall of the Soviet Empire in 1991. After that neither side mentioned the treaties, presumably because both agreed that accords between two fallen regimes could not apply in radically changed circumstances.

So, one can imagine the surprise caused by President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s decision to suddenly start speaking of the two treaties as if they were still valid.

He and his aides, including Foreign Minister Manuchehr Motakki, have mentioned the treaties with regard to the status of the Caspian Sea and the application by the Islamic Republic to join Russia and China in the Shanghai Group, an informal framework for security cooperation.

Motakki has gone further by suggesting that Iran abandon the Persian name for the Caspian Sea, that is to say the Sea of Mazandaran, and adopt the Russian name mentioned in the treaties. To sweeten Russia further, Motakki has also hinted at abandoning Iran’s demand for a 20 per cent share in the Caspian’s resources, settling, instead, for just over 11 per cent.

Why is an administration that pretends it has a mission from the “Hidden Imam” to liberate the whole world keen to give Russia a licence to land troops in Iran?

Obviously, only Ahmadinejad and his associates know the full answer. However, one could speculate that the Khomeinist president has decided that a war with the United States is inevitable. In such a war, the Americans may well seize Iran’s oilfields, an easy target for a surprise attack and a difficult asset for defenders to protect. Once that happens Russia could land troops in northern Iran and then go to the United Nations to ask for a generalised ceasefire and the fixing of a timetable for the withdrawal of “all foreign troops from all Iranian territory.” The US would come under global pressure to cooperate with Russia in ending the conflict and paving the way for the departure of foreign troops and the restoration of Iranian sovereignty.

If that is how Ahmadinejad thinks, he has just returned to 1921 and Sayyed Ziauddin Tabatabai in an Iran as weak and as vulnerable. And that, for a man whose ambition is to lead mankind on a new path away from that fixed by “American Arrogance,” is not something to be proud of.

Ahmadinejad Wants Russian Troops in Iran? (http://aawsat.com/english/news.asp?section=2&id=12541)

Egypt looks for lead role in Mediterranean Union
(DPA)

28 April 2008

LUXEMBOURG - Egypt wants to play a leading role in the planned Union for the Mediterranean, coordinating the states around the south of the sea, its foreign minister said on Monday at a meeting with European Union officials.

Egypt 'accepts and endorses' the idea of the union originally proposed by French President Nicolas Sarkozy, and it is 'eager to enter high-level discussions with the EU as Egypt, the coordinator of the south,' Foreign Minister Ahmed Aboul-Ghreit said.

Egypt will also organize meetings around the southern Mediterranean to forge a common view with Arab neighbours on issues important to the proposed union, he said at a meeting in Luxembourg.

'Whatever we put on the table (on the issue of the proposed union) is very much spoken about, talked about and prepared with Egypt,' EU foreign policy chief Javier Solana replied.

Sarkozy initially proposed the idea for a Mediterranean Union modelled on the EU in early 2007. However, EU member states without a coastline on the sea rejected the creation of a major new structure, approving instead a strengthened version of current policies.

The talks in Luxembourg were the fourth in an annual series set up und EU and Egypt, which came into force in 2004, and were marked by their 'constructive' and friendly tone, participants said.

The two sides discussed Egypt's mediating role in the Middle East Peace Process, agreeing that the immediate prerequisites for progress would be a ceasefire, the exchange of prisoners and the implementation of a 2005 agreement on crossings into the Gaza Strip.

They also discussed the global problem of world food prices, while Egypt presented EU Foreign-Affairs Commissioner Benita Ferrero- Waldner with a list of proposals for improving aspects of cooperation, Aboul-Ghreit said.

They also touched on the question of the crackdown on banned opposition group the Muslim Brotherhood ahead of April 8 municipal elections in the country.

'When you have an illegal organization acting, trying to be legal, you arrest its operators,' Aboul-Ghreit said.

'There are still a lot of questions that we would have to tackle in the future, but ... the fact that the (April) elections were held was certainly important,' Ferrero-Waldner said.

She hoped that future cooperation would allow Egypt to build on the experience of its first-ever contested presidential elections in 2005, she said.

Egypt looks for lead role in Mediterranean Union (http://www.khaleejtimes.com/DisplayArticleNew.asp?xfile=data/theworld/2008/April/theworld_April1028.xml&section=theworld)
~~~~~~~

Daniel 11:40 And at the time of the end shall the king of the south push at him: and the king of the north shall come against him like a whirlwind, with chariots, and with horsemen, and with many ships; and he shall enter into the countries, and shall overflow and pass over.

Iran discusses package of nuclear proposals with Russia

By ALI AKBAR DAREINI, Associated Press Writer Mon Apr 28, 2:19 PM ET

TEHRAN, Iran - Iran and Russia on Monday discussed the outlines of "serious proposals" aimed at assuring the international community that Tehran's nuclear program is peaceful, state media reported.

Top Iranian nuclear negotiator Saeed Jalili did not provide details of the proposals but said Tehran will soon unveil them publicly.

"The Islamic Republic of Iran has serious proposals about what to do to reduce threats resulting from the nuclear issue to the minimum," Jalili was quoted as saying by Iran's official news agency IRNA.

Later Monday, Gholam Reza Aghazadeh, head of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran, called the package "a comprehensive plan" addressed to the five permanent members of the U.N. Security Council plus Germany.

"Iran's package of proposals is not addressed to one specific country. It is a comprehensive plan with broad proposals. The spirit of the plan is that Iran is prepared to cooperate with all its capacity to resolve the remaining issues," Aghazadeh told a news conference.

Aghazadeh said the package was discussed Monday with acting Russian Security Council Secretary Valentin Sobolev during his visit to Iran, but was addressed to the United States, Britain, France, Germany, Russia and China.

Those countries have pledged to enhance a 2006 package of political, security and economic incentives in return for Iran halting uranium enrichment. Iran has said it would not trade its rights for incentives.

Russia has been a key ally to Iran in its nuclear standoff with the West, but also has voted in favor of three rounds of U.N. Security Council sanctions against Iran for its failure to halt uranium enrichment.

Iran has denied pursuing nuclear weapons, saying its program is geared toward generating electricity.

Also Monday, the deputy chief of the U.N. nuclear monitoring agency arrived in Tehran to discuss Iran's controversial nuclear program.

His second visit in two weeks comes only days after the International Atomic Energy Agency said it had reached a "milestone" agreement with Iran that aims to provide answers to allegations that Tehran has tried to develop nuclear weapons.

Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Mohammad Ali Hosseini said Sunday that Iran was willing to discuss any issue with the U.N. nuclear watchdog but maintained the country had already answered all outstanding questions about its nuclear program.

Iran discusses package of nuclear proposals with Russia (http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080428/ap_on_re_mi_ea/iran_nuclear;_ylt=AgwYwaKk1AdzMn9w.m7i1JVvaA8F)
~~~~~~~

Talk about the Willful King of the North. The 2 least trustworthy countries on earth besides N. Korea doing a deal together.

They must REALLY think we're stupid.

Russian parliament confirms Putin as prime minister of Russia

By LYNN BERRY, Associated Press Writer
Thu May 8, 2:59 PM ET

MOSCOW - When Boris Yeltsin left the Kremlin eight years ago, he gave Vladimir Putin the pen he had used to sign important documents and decrees, a gesture symbolizing the transfer of power to Russia's new president. When Putin left the Kremlin, he took the pen with him. Putin, who became prime minister Thursday, has signaled that he intends to remain Russia's principal leader, at least in the short term — and possibly much longer. He is keeping the trappings of his presidency and many of its powers as well.

It was not always meant to be this way. Putin initially said he intended to hand the full powers of the presidency to his chosen successor and step aside. But as the time drew near, he clearly changed his mind as infighting between rival Kremlin factions spilled into the open, threatening to undermine political stability.

Veterans of the secret services have come to dominate the government under Putin, a 55-year-old former KGB officer. These powerful figures, known as the "siloviki," have been given leading roles in major businesses — including oil companies and aircraft and automobile manufacturers — that Putin has brought back under state control.

They see Putin as the key to preserving their positions and continued access to financial flows. Some of them opposed Putin's choice of Dmitry Medvedev, a 42-year-old lawyer, who was inaugurated as president on Wednesday.

Putin may have decided to stay around to keep the peace and protect his protege until he consolidates his position.

Immensely popular and at the height of his powers, Putin appears to want Russians to see him as still in charge and to anticipate his return to the presidency in 2012, which he has not ruled out.

In a fervent 45-minute speech Thursday before parliament, Putin laid out huge ambitions for the economy and boasted that under his leadership Russia "had not just changed but become a different country." He was approved by a vote of 392-56, with only the Communists opposing him.

Medvedev, by contrast, was a lackluster supporting player, introducing Putin in a bland five-minute address that underlined Putin's potency.

Putin left the Kremlin on Wednesday, but just moved down the road to the building known as the White House, the government headquarters near the U.S. Embassy. In anticipation of his arrival, the prime minister's fifth-floor office overlooking the Moscow River has been renovated and its staff greatly expanded. Many of those who served him as president have made the switch, and others are expected to follow.

Putin will continue to travel to work in a motorcade from the same wooded estate in one of Moscow's most exclusive suburban neighborhoods where he lived as president and which is now his to keep.

While quietly laying the groundwork for expanding the scope of the prime minister's office, Putin has firmed up his position by becoming chairman of the Kremlin's dominant political party, which gives him control over parliament and strong leverage over regional leaders.

Members of that party still have Putin's portrait in their offices.

Putin has said he feels no need to hang the portrait of Russia's new president in his office in a traditional sign of respect. Other government officials will hang a picture of Medvedev and have to decide whether to take down Putin. Many are expected to hedge their bets by displaying both.

Aluminum magnate Oleg Deripaska, whom Forbes magazine calls Russia's richest man, said recently that it is clear Putin remains in charge. "In Russia, in our culture we need to have a leader," Deripaska said at a lunch with foreign journalists.

With Putin in control, Deripaska said there is no risk of political instability. "There is no chance for any intrigue. Don't bet on it," he said.

Putin and Medvedev, who have worked together since the early 1990s, stress their friendship and full agreement on Russia's course.

But Putin seems to be taking no chances that Medvedev will turn against him. His party has a 70 percent majority, which gives it the power to change the constitution, block legislation or impeach the president.

As prime minister, Putin will control the budget and oversee gigantic state corporations, including Gazprom, the world's largest natural gas producer. These corporations, staffed with Putin loyalists, have allowed Russia to reassert its global might.

Both men have said Medvedev will set foreign policy.

Boris Makarenko, an analyst with the Center for Political Technologies, said there will be no need to amend the constitution, which in spelling out the powers of the president and prime minister leaves room for interpretation. "The gray areas will be shared differently than they are now," he was quoted in Vremya Novostei as saying.

An early signal of the level of Putin's influence will come when Russia forms a new government. Most members of his team are expected to remain in high posts.

Another important sign will be the TV coverage of Putin and Medvedev on national channels, which are all under Kremlin control and have served as a political bellwether. Medvedev has been given lavish coverage, but Putin remains the main hero of the evening news.

Russian parliament confirms Putin as prime minister of Russia (http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080508/ap_on_re_eu/russia_putin;_ylt=Au70z9i0cJnVcxFe3Sm_0cJ0bBAF)

Nuclear missiles parade across Red Square
May 9 07:37 AM US/Eastern

Nuclear missiles and tanks paraded Friday across Red Square for the first time since the Soviet era but new President Dmitry Medvedev warned other nations against "irresponsible ambitions" that he said could start wars.

Marching bands and 8,000 troops goose-stepped across the square, followed by a huge display of heavy weapons including Topol-M ballistic missiles and T-90 tanks, and a fly-by of warplanes.

Reviewing his first parade as commander in chief, Medvedev warned against "irresponsible ambitions" that he said could spark war across entire continents.

In an apparent attack on US foreign policy and Western backing for Kosovo's independence, Medvedev also criticised "intentions to intrude in the affairs of other states and especially redraw borders."

Alongside the new president was his mentor and now prime minister, Vladimir Putin, standing under bright sunshine in a tribune in front of Lenin's Mausoleum, the Soviet holy of holies that was screened off by a giant hoarding inscribed with May 9, 1945.

The show of strength on the 63rd anniversary of victory against Nazi Germany symbolised Moscow's growing boldness following eight years of rule by Putin, whose hawkish policies have set Russia at loggerheads with Western capitals.

Medvedev, who was inaugurated Wednesday, is a close ally of Putin and had been his aide for much of the last two decades.

Many analysts believe that Medvedev, 42, will be a weak president reliant on the support of Putin, 55, who on Thursday became prime minister.

Other observers say the untested Medvedev will grow into the presidency, which carries huge powers in Russia -- as symbolised by the Red Square parade.

Earlier Putin said the parade was not "sabre-rattling" but "a demonstration of our growing defence capability."

The commemoration came after Washington on Thursday said Moscow had expelled two of its diplomats.

US Defense Secretary Robert Gates on Thursday dismissed the move as "just the usual tit for tat" in response to Washington's expulsion of a Russian spy.

Tensions with the United States have been particularly high over Russia's pro-Western neighbour Georgia, which has received US backing for its bid to join the NATO military alliance.

On Thursday Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili said his country and Russia had come close to war "several days ago" after Russia ramped up support for separatists controlling Georgia's Abkhazia region.

Medvedev told veterans invited to a Kremlin reception after the parade that "we must unite the international community so as not to allow the spread of new, very frightening threats," ITAR-TASS news agency reported.

On the streets of Moscow, the atmosphere was festive for one of the country's best-loved holidays.

Amid re-runs of World War II films, television stations showed soldiers parading through cities across the country.

Veterans were shown with chests loaded down with medals, while some young soldiers were dressed in World War II uniforms, complete with old-fashioned rifles and red stars on their helmets.

The occasion reflects the trauma of World War II in which millions of Soviet citizens died before driving back the Nazis, but also a large measure of Soviet-style propaganda which airbrushed dark aspects of the story -- not least Stalin's massive wartime repressions.

The reappearance of massive weapons in the capital after a break of 18 years required extraordinary preparations.

Ahead of the parade, the cobbles of Red Square were specially reinforced to cope with tanks and other heavy weaponry, while the Kommersant newspaper said nearby subway tunnels had been reinforced to prevent them collapsing.

Twelve air force planes were to ensure clear skies over Moscow with the use of cloud-seeding technology.

Nuclear missiles parade across Red Square (http://www.breitbart.com/print.php?id=080509113625.2fytcrew&show_article=1)

Russia Parades Its Military in an Echo of Soviet Days
By C. J. CHIVERS
May 10, 2008

MOSCOW — Nuclear missile launchers and columns of tanks rolled through Red Square on Friday in a display of martial hardware not seen since the Soviet Union’s waning days.

The parade, much smaller than similar commemorations in the Soviet period but laden with significance and mixed messages, marked the 63rd anniversary of the victory over Nazi Germany, which is observed in Russia as Victory Day, a solemn state holiday.

It was intended both as a tribute to the dwindling ranks of surviving veterans and as a display of Russia’s efforts to revive armed forces made moribund by the Soviet Union’s collapse.

It was also widely described as a sign that the Kremlin wanted to show the world that it had recovered from the embarrassments of the 1990s and that its foreign policy had not softened in a transfer of presidential power this week.

But the goose-stepping footfalls, echoing in front of shop windows bearing products from Louis Vuitton and Christian Dior, captured as well the contrasts institutionalized during eight years of rule by Vladimir V. Putin, the former spymaster and president who left office on Wednesday and returned to power as prime minister the following day.

Confident and flush with wealth, Mr. Putin’s Russia is led by men who embrace Soviet symbols and rituals while promising tax breaks and legislation to encourage a growing Russian investor class.

The passing columns were reviewed by the new president, Dmitri A. Medvedev, a lawyer who has spoken of nurturing civil liberties and a climate more conducive to small business, but who ascended to office in an election stage-managed by the Kremlin.

Many of the soldiers were in period dress, wearing uniforms reminiscent of those worn in celebrations that Mr. Putin led in the same place three years ago on the 60th anniversary of the end of World War II.

This time there was a new president. Mr. Putin, his mentor, stood behind Mr. Medvedev as he addressed the crowd. When the troops began to march by while saluting the dignitaries, the former president stepped forward to receive the salutes at his protégé’s side.

In a sign that suggested that the Kremlin had not yet settled how to interpret the seven decades of Soviet history, Lenin’s mausoleum was temporarily blocked from view by a huge mural of Russia’s tri-colored national flag.

The mausoleum, where Lenin’s embalmed body lies in state, is normally a centerpiece of the square and perhaps the most potent Soviet symbol in the capital. The president and prime minister stood on a reviewing stand erected for the event, their backs to Lenin’s remains as they presided over a ritual created by Stalin.

Mr. Medvedev thanked the aging veterans in the reviewing stands — white-haired men and women in their 80s and 90s, many wearing blazers heavy with medals. Then he spoke of readiness and restraint.

“The history of world wars warns that armed conflicts do not erupt on their own,” he said. “They are fueled by those whose irresponsible ambitions overpower the interests of countries and whole continents, the interests of millions of people.”

He added, “We need to remember the lessons of that war and work every day so that such tragedies never happen again.”

The parade was the first display of armor and nuclear missile launchers on Red Square since 1990, and was followed by a flyover of 32 military planes, including strategic bombers.

The Kremlin’s decision to parade its military hardware has been a subject of competing interpretations, viewed variously as symbolic confirmation of Russia’s pride, or aggressiveness, as a marketing show of Russian arms, and as a nationalistic festival ordered by Mr. Putin, for Mr. Putin.

Mr. Putin insisted earlier in the week that the parade should not be viewed as “saber rattling.” “It is not a warlike gesture,” he said. “Russia is not threatening anyone.”

But it followed a year during which the Kremlin asserted its case against what it regarded as reckless American foreign policies. Mr. Putin has strongly protested an American-led plan to install a missile-defense system in Poland and the Czech Republic. As tensions rose, Russia’s aging strategic bombers conducted international patrols, entered British airspace and approached American carrier groups on the high seas.

Russian state-controlled television stations have featured extensive coverage of small-scale exercises of Russia’s navy, and of supposedly new weapons systems. Mr. Putin, who firmly opposed the American-led invasion of Iraq five years ago, also endorsed a doctrine of pre-emptive strikes against threats to Russian soil.

As a tribute to veterans and to the irrefutable role and sacrifices of the Soviet Union’s people in defeating Hitler, the events on the square were high spectacle. But the parade, broadcast on television here as a national triumph, also offered sights of the mixed condition of the once vaunted armed forces under Kremlin command.

Several of the infantry units, including marine and airborne units, were staffed with lean and fit young men who marched with bearing and precision. Others included troops who appeared to be in only fair condition, and several of the officers leading formations past the two Russian leaders were visibly overweight.

The United States expressed no alarm over the parade. Russia has become a leading global arms exporter again, but its wares are almost all items designed decades ago. A Pentagon spokesman, echoing a view common among military analysts, had characterized the planned military review as a hollow show of dated gear bearing fresh coats of paint.

“If they wish to take out their old equipment and take it for a spin and check it out,” said the spokesman, Geoff Morrell, “they’re more than welcome to do so.”

Russia Parades Its Military in an Echo of Soviet Days (http://www.nytimes.com/2008/05/10/world/europe/10russia.html?_r=1&oref=slogin&ref=world&pagewanted=print)

RUSSIA “BOOSTS” MILITARY PRESENCE IN CENTRAL ASIA

By Roger McDermott

Wednesday, June 11, 2008

Russia’s plans to “reinforce” its airbase at Kant in the Kyrgyz Republic and further strengthen its 201st Motor Rifle Division (MRD) in Dushanbe, combined with other elements of boosting its defense cooperation with the Central Asian states, indicate evolving trends in the region’s security dynamics. The timing of such moves to raise Russia’s military profile in Central Asia, albeit through the use of minimal quantities of hardware, suggests that Moscow could be playing on concerns within these regimes about the outcome of the U.S. presidential elections, the future nature of American defense, and security cooperation on Russia’s southern periphery.

The earliest indication that the base at Kant might receive additional Russian reinforcements came from the head of the Russian Air Force (VVS) and was followed by wider political comment on its importance from within the CSTO. On June 4 Commander-in-Chief of the Russian Air Force Colonel-General Alexandr Zelin, announced plans to reinforce the base with more aircraft but was short on details. His statement centered on sending An-26 transport aircraft and three more Su-27 fighters to the base from the Krasnodar aviation school in Russia. On June 5 Secretary General of the CSTO Nikolai Bordyuzha suggested that the additional deployment of elements of the Russian Air Force to Kant could further establish Russia’s seriousness about strengthening the combat potential of the contingent based there, as well as give it greater importance. Kant, which opened in September 2003, has approximately 500 personnel. It is equipped with Russian Su-25, Su-27, An-24 and Il-76 aircraft, along with Mi-8 helicopters, and is supported by Czech-built L-39 training aircraft and helicopters, which Bishkek contributed for use in search and rescue operations (Kabar, June 4; ITAR-TASS, June 5).

Clearly, the additional deployment is not an attempt to build up forces or substantially alter the current structure of the base or achieve any meaningful increase in the combat capabilities of the CSTO airbase. It is, in fact, almost a token effort to increase the political significance Moscow attaches to the base. In order to define the nature of the trends in Russian security thinking on Central Asia, this must be evaluated in the context of Moscow’s wider efforts to “boost” its presence in neighboring Tajikistan, where there are signs of a similar pattern but with a little more flag waving. Bordyuzha himself made the linkage between these issues, commenting that “Russia deployed its 201st base in Tajikistan and the airbase at Kyrgyzstan’s Kant precisely for the purpose of giving greater security to the CSTO member countries in Central Asia.” Again, the “rearmament” of the base in Dushanbe, which had housed the 201st MRD prior to 9/11, serves largely as a way of providing emergency support for border forces on the Tajik-Afghan border and reveals a light-touch approach by the Russian military. It is equally noticeable, at a time of controversy and misunderstanding about the use of Russian armed forces in Abkhazia, that within Central Asia the style is less controversial and, in fact, is “low-key.” In the effort to strengthen the 201st base in Dushanbe, the delivery of Russian military hardware has been slowed down by delays caused in transiting the equipment through neighboring Uzbekistan. Bordyuzha believes these technical and logistical issues will soon be resolved, allowing the successful completion by the set deadline (ITAR-TASS, June 5).

Noteworthy was the recent visit to the region of Deputy U.S. Secretary of State on Eurasia David Merkel. He emphasized the continued importance of Central Asia to the United States, noting that when President George W. Bush announced the new national security strategy in 2006, Central Asia was designated as an area of permanent foreign policy interest for Washington. However, in an interview with Gazeta publishing house, Merkel explained, “We have many issues on the desk concerning Central Asia; they include diversification of global energy sources, combating terrorism, preserving security, ensuring sustainable development and promoting justice and democracy.” Democracy has slipped down the agenda, reflecting longer-term trends in the region and in Russia that the U.S. can do little to change (Gundogar, June 4).

Changes in how the West formulates policy toward Central Asia seem inevitable. On June 2 Uzbek President Islom Karimov welcomed U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for South and Central Asian Affairs Richard Boucher in Tashkent. Both sides are intensifying their efforts to heal the bilateral relationship, both countries’ agendas for bilateral cooperation are moving closer together. Karimov told Boucher, “Your visit to Uzbekistan will produce good results and will give a new impetus to strengthening relations between Uzbekistan and the United States. Indeed, your visit to Uzbekistan is a wonderful opportunity to discuss the current state of affairs in our relations and the level of our relations and to consider the issues that require discussing in terms of the interests of Uzbekistan and the U.S.” (Uzbek Television Second Channel, June 2).

When Russia “boosts” its military presence or offers additional security support in Central Asia, it does so after careful planning, consultation and through multilateral mechanisms, such as the CSTO, which supply an added sense of legitimacy for all parties. In reality, inside the planning staffs of the defense and security structures in Central Asian CSTO member states, there is little appetite for questioning Russia’s motives or attempting to misconstrue such actions. The relationship is reasonably stable and works in practical terms. Moscow does not need to set in motion any grand schemes in order to convince its Central Asian allies that it takes issues relating to their security and the security of Russia itself seriously. The slow, steady approach has essentially paid off, serving to build trust and dispel

RUSSIA “BOOSTS” MILITARY PRESENCE IN CENTRAL ASIA (http://jamestown.org/edm/article.php?article_id=2373132)

Lebanon forms unity government with Hezbollah
Fri Jul 11, 2008 12:03pm EDT

By Laila Bassam

BEIRUT (Reuters) - Lebanon ended weeks of wrangling on Friday and formed a unity government in which Hezbollah and its allies hold effective veto power, as agreed under a deal that ended a paralyzing political conflict in the country.

The decisive say granted to the former opposition led by Hezbollah, an ally of Damascus, shows that Syria has succeeded in wrenching back some political leverage in Lebanon, where it was the main power broker until its troops left in 2005.

The birth of the government, the first under newly elected President Michel Suleiman, should close a long political crisis that had threatened to plunge Lebanon into a new civil war.

But it also marks the start of a challenging new era in which leaders must contain rising sectarian tensions, prepare for a parliamentary election next year and start talks on the fate of Iranian- and Syrian-backed Hezbollah's military wing.

A presidential decree announced the cabinet after Suleiman, a Maronite Christian, met Prime Minister Fouad Siniora, a Sunni Muslim, and Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri, a Shi'ite Muslim.

"This government has two main tasks: regaining confidence in the Lebanese political system... and securing the holding of a transparent parliamentary election," Siniora told reporters.

The new team has one Hezbollah minister in addition to 10 ministers from its Shi'ite, Druze and Christian allies.

The opposition was guaranteed 11 of the cabinet's 30 seats under a May deal to defuse a conflict that had sparked some of the worst fighting since the 1975-90 civil war. All major decisions require a two-thirds majority or 20 cabinet votes.

The Qatari-brokered May 21 agreement opened the way for Suleiman's election four days later, but factional squabbling over portfolios had held up the formation of a government.

The majority coalition chose 16 ministers. Suleiman picked the remaining three, including Interior Minister Ziad Baroud.

Siniora's close adviser Mohammad Chatah takes the finance portfolio. Hezbollah's Mohammad Fneish becomes labor minister and Fawzi Salloukh, of the Shi'ite Amal group, foreign minister.

The cabinet's main task will be to ease sectarian and political tensions to avert further violence, adopt an election law agreed in the Qatar talks and supervise next year's poll.

POPULAR RELIEF

"Finally!" a 21-year-old Beirut man, who gave his name only as Ahmed, said of the new cabinet. "Hopefully it will be a real national unity government and they won't waste time fighting at the table and will sort out the problems of the Lebanese."

European Union foreign policy chief Javier Solana welcomed the formation of the new government which he said marked a "key achievement".

"Important decisions need to be taken in the coming weeks and there is a lot of work to be done," Solana said in a statement, reiterating the EU's support to Siniora.

Suleiman is due in Paris for Sunday's launch of French President Nicolas Sarkozy's Mediterranean Union project, his first foreign trip as president. He is expected to hold talks there with his Syrian counterpart Bashar al-Assad.

Assad's presence at the summit, which Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert will also attend, marks French recognition of Syria's role in facilitating a compromise in Lebanon.

Damascus had given its blessing to the Doha deal, which effectively translated into political gains the military victory Hezbollah and its allies had won against their Western-backed foes in street fighting in Beirut and elsewhere earlier in May.

With the government in place, Suleiman is expected to call rival leaders for round-table talks on divisive issues, with the fate of Hezbollah's weapons foremost among them.

Hezbollah maintains a formidable guerrilla army that fought off Israeli forces in a 34-day war in 2006.

Its domestic detractors say Hezbollah has had no reason to keep its weapons since Israel pulled out of Lebanon in 2000. Hezbollah and its allies argue that it needs its arsenal to deter and defend Lebanon against possible Israeli attack.

Lebanon forms unity government with Hezbollah (http://www.reuters.com/articlePrint?articleId=USL115987520080711)

Lebanon announces unity cabinet to end political crisis

July 12, 2008 - 3:03AM

Lebanon announced a 30-member national unity government on Friday tasked with resolving the country's worst political crisis since a 1975-1990 civil war.

The lineup was announced in a decree signed by President Michel Sleiman and Prime Minister Fuad Siniora, seven weeks after an accord which saved Lebanon from the brink of renewed civil war.

The accord between Lebanon's political rivals sealed in Doha on May 21 allocated 16 cabinet seats to the Western-backed parliamentary majority and 11 to the opposition led by Hezbollah, giving it veto powers.

"The government of national unity is the government of all the Lebanese," Siniora told reporters at the presidential palace.

The opposition took the coveted posts of foreign minister, telecommunications minister and deputy premier in the new cabinet, while the ruling bloc kept the finance ministry.

The president, who himself only took office four days after the Doha accord, filling a post left vacant since November, made three appointments, including Elias Murr, who kept the defence portfolio despite opposition reservations.

He also appointed lawyer and electoral law expert Ziad Baroud to head the interior ministry which is responsible for organising legislative elections next year.

Finance Minister Mohammed Shatah, who was appointed by the ruling bloc, served as Siniora's senior advisor in the previous cabinet.

The government announced more than a year-and-a-half into Lebanon's political crisis includes one woman, Bahia Hariri, sister of slain former prime minister Rafiq Hariri. She is to head the education ministry.

Christian opposition leader Michel Aoun, whose party was not represented in the previous cabinet, took four cabinet posts plus the deputy premiership.

The Iranian- and Syrian-backed Shiite militant group Hezbollah was allocated three seats in the cabinet, with Mohammed Fneish of Hezbollah to serve as labour minister alongside two allies.

Siniora, who was appointed by Sleiman, said the new government would have two key tasks: "To restore confidence in political institutions and the Lebanese political system ... and to promote moderation."

"Our differences will not be resolved overnight, but we have decided to resolve them through institutions and dialogue rather than in the streets," said the prime minister, who first came to office in July 2005.

The cabinet's inaugural meeting is to take place on Wednesday.

The European Union's French presidency welcomed the breakthrough.

"The formation of a unity government marks an important step in the implementation of the Doha agreement" between the Lebanese parties in May, French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner said.

Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki also welcomed the development, saying in Tehran he hoped it would result in the strengthening of national unity among Lebanese and bring internal stability to their country.

The breakthrough in forming a government which includes the Syrian-backed opposition came as Syria's President Bashar al-Assad prepared to join a Paris summit of European and Mediterranean leaders this weekend.

It follows a political crisis which broke out when Hezbollah, which Washington brands a terrorist group, and its allies stepped down from government in November 2006, shortly after a devastating Hezbollah-Israel war.

Parliamentary majority leader, Saad Hariri, said earlier on Friday that the breakthrough in weeks of efforts to form a new cabinet followed a concession to Hezbollah.

"I have asked Prime Minister Fuad Siniora to accept the nomination of Ali Qanso" in the lineup, he said, referring to a figure previously opposed by Hariri's camp. "We are making sacrifices in the interests of the country."

Siniora has struggled since the end of May to form a new government of national unity, under the Doha accord between rival factions following deadly sectarian clashes.

But the rivals were since locked in political bickering over the distribution of key portfolios.

The Doha deal was struck after 65 people were killed in May in sectarian clashes that saw Hezbollah stage a dramatic takeover of mainly Sunni areas of west Beirut, raising fears of a return to Lebanon's 15-year civil war.

The opposition had since its walkout from the government insisted on veto power and dismissed Siniora's last cabinet as illegitimate.

Siniora headed a caretaker administration after the Doha accord which in effect dismantled his last administration in the wake of Hezbollah's military show of force that was unopposed by the Lebanese army.

Lebanon announces unity cabinet to end political crisis (http://news.smh.com.au/world/lebanon-announces-unity-cabinet-to-end-political-crisis-20080711-3duy.html)

Energy ties deepen between Iran and Turkey
August 07, 2008
by John C.K. Daly

The United States has maintained various sanctions against Iran since 1979, implemented in aftermath of the seizure of the US embassy in Tehran. As relations worsen between the US and Iran, Washington is seeking to have the United Nations Security Council impose additional sanctions on Iran for its nuclear enrichment activities, which Tehran insists are legal, entirely peaceful, and intended for generating electricity.

Among the sanctions that most concern foreign energy companies and nations is the 1996 Iran-Libya Sanctions Act (ILSA), renewed in 2001, which provides for punitive measures against entities that invest more than $ 20 mm (EUR 13 mm) annually in the Iranian oil and gas sectors.

Many countries are deeply ambivalent toward the US policy, none more so than Turkey, which imports 90 % of its energy needs. Now Ankara is pushing the limits by increasing its natural gas purchases from Iran and considering possible involvement in developing the world’s largest hydrocarbon reserves. On July 29 Iranian Petroleum Minister Qolam Hosein Nozari said in Tehran that Turkey and Iran were negotiating over Turkey being a transit corridor for Iranian natural gas exports to Europe and that Iran would provide increased amounts of natural gas to Turkey during the winter (Anadolu Ajansi, June 30).

According to Nozari, the pipeline, which would run from Iran’s South Pars natural gas and oil fields to the border province of Bazargan, was discussed during the OPEC summit held on June 22 in Jeddah (Tehran Times, June 29). Even worse for administration officials seeking to sustain and intensify the US sanctions regime, Nozari said, “We have also spoken about the participation of Turkey in the development of phases 14 and 23 of the South Pars field” (Hurriyet, June 30).

The 3,745 sq-mile Persian Gulf South Pars-North Dome gas condensate field, straddling Iranian and Qatari territorial waters, is the world’s largest known gas field. Discovered by the National Iranian Oil Company (NIOC) in 1990, Iran’s sector, known as South Pars, covers 1,428 sq miles, with the site’s remaining 2,317 sq miles, North Dome, lying in Qatari waters. South Pars-North Dome has estimated reserves of approximately 51 tcm of natural gas and 50 bn barrels of condensate; with in-place reserves equivalent to 360 bn barrels of oil. South Pars-North Dome is the world’s biggest conventional hydrocarbon accretion, dwarfing even Saudi Arabia’s 170 bn barrel Ghawar oil field (Middle East Economic Survey, March 20, 2006).

Phase 14, due to begin production in 2014, is part of a $ 10 bn (EUR 6.5 bn) liquefied natural gas (LNG) project, which already has foreign investors -- a partnership of NIOC (50 %), Anglo-Dutch firm Royal Dutch Shell (25 %), and Spain’s Repsol-YPF (25 %). When operational, the project’s initial production capacity will consist of two components, each capable of an annual production of 8 mm tons of LNG.

For Ankara, the choice of major natural gas suppliers is difficult, Russia or Iran, while waiting for Azerbaijan to ramp up production. Iran, which holds the world's second largest gas reserves, currently provides over one-third of Turkey’s domestic demand, while Turkey receives 63.7 % of its imports from Gazprom with smaller volumes coming from Azerbaijan.

In 1996 Turkey signed a contract with Iran for natural gas deliveries, which began in December 2001 via a pipeline from Tabriz to Ankara. The South Caucasus pipeline, also known as the Baku-Tbilisi-Erzurum natural gas pipeline, opened in December 2006 with an annual capacity of 8.8 bn cm and carries Azeri Caspian natural gas to Turkey via Georgia.

Energy imports from both nations are critical to sustaining Turkish economic growth, even though Washington, whose diplomatic relations are increasingly strained with Russia and non-existent with Iran, is very unhappy about the situation. According to Turkey’s Turkiye Istatistik Kurumu (Turkish Statistical Institute), Turkey’s economic growth accelerated more than expected from January through March, increasing to 6.6 % from 3.4 % in the fourth quarter of 2007 (www.tuik.gov.tr). The figure exceeded the market estimates by 35 to 40 %, as the expected growth rate was around 4 % (Milliyet, July 1). In 2007 Turkey's annual GDP growth rate was 4.5 %.

Rising energy costs, however, are proving to be a significant drag on economic growth. Earlier this year the Turkish government hiked electricity prices by 21 %, and Ankara is preparing to raise natural gas prices in July by 9 % for residences and 11 % for businesses (Radikal, July 1).

In June, Turkey’s Devlet Planlama Teskilati (State Planning Organization, or DPT) prepared a comprehensive projection for Turkey’s economy from 2009 through 2011, which has been approved by the Cabinet and published in the government’s official gazette, Resmi Gazete (http://rega.basbakanlik.gov.tr, June 28). The plan includes measures to ensure energy supply security in the long-term and gives top priority to decreasing the country’s dependence on imported natural gas.

At a time of record high oil prices, when Saudi Arabia’s King Abdullah said, "Consumer countries have to adapt to the prices and the mechanisms of the market," Washington’s efforts to compel its allies to respect its hard-line sanctions against Tehran seem at best naïve, especially when the United States has no alternative sources of energy to offer (Al-Siyassah, July 2). While Washington’s threats of sanctions in June caused both Royal Dutch Shell and Repsol-YPF to withdraw from the South Pars development, there is a major difference between a multinational company and a sovereign government bending to sanctions.

For Turkey, displays of political solidarity must take a back seat to financial considerations, as the government is committed to economic growth to improve the lives of its citizens. Ankara estimates that from Desert Storm in 1991 until the March 2003 invasion of Iraq, it lost an estimated $ 80 bn in oil revenues and increased energy costs as a result of supporting US and UN sanctions and policies against Iraq.

Washington can hardly expect Turkey to suffer further financial losses for supporting its Middle East policies. With no end to energy price increases in sight, Washington must acknowledge the reality of Turkey’s pragmatic economic relations with its energy-rich eastern neighbour, even if it does not agree with them.

Energy ties deepen between Iran and Turkey (http://www.gasandoil.com/goc/news/nte83265.htm)

Land battle in the Jordan Valley
5 August 2008
By Wyre Davies
BBC News, Maskiot

From Gaza to the Jordan Valley via Beersheva, K'Dumim, Alon Shvot, and Hamdot.

With a wry smile and a shrug of the shoulders Yossi Hazut describes how he has moved from place to place across Israel and the Palestinian Territories for the last three years.

Now, sat under the welcoming shade of a tree, Yossi tells me he has finally found somewhere he and his young family can call home.

Yossi and fellow settlers from Shirat Hayam were among the last to be forcibly removed from the Jewish settlements in Gaza in 2005 as part of the controversial "disengagement" process instigated by then Prime Minister Ariel Sharon.

Twenty of those families, who have remained committed to their Zionist ideals, are now preparing to build a new Jewish community - not on the sand dunes of Gaza, but in the equally hot but fertile landscape of the Jordan Valley.

Like Gaza, this is recognised internationally as Palestinian land, something that Yossi challenges.

"As a law-abiding Israeli citizen, I accept my country's laws which allow me to build my home here," says Yossi.

He gestures towards a patch of land, now covered in wispy yellow grass, where they plan to build several new housing units.

"As a religious Jew I also have a duty to settle here," Yossi tells me. "This land was promised to us by God and that promise is now being fulfilled."

Hard to defend

If, as expected, it gets final Israeli government approval, this former military outpost known as Maskiot will be the first new, formal, Jewish settlement to be established in the Occupied West Bank for a decade.

Under the current Road Map - the basis for peace talks between Israel and the Palestinians - all settlement activity is meant to be frozen.

However, the approval or building of new Jewish homes in Arab East Jerusalem and in Occupied West Bank has actually increased this year.

UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon said he was "deeply concerned" over the new Maskiot plan, whereas the British government said it was "dismayed".

Even Israel's staunchest ally finds the policy hard to defend.

Settlement expansion was "not helpful" and was "inconsistent with Israel's commitment to the roadmap", said a spokesman for US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, referring to the international peace plan that is the basis for Israeli-Palestinian negotiations.

Demolition order

It is not finer points of the roadmap that worries Jasser Dargma - a Palestinian farmer a couple of kilometres down the valley from Maskiot.

He is more concerned by a tatty, torn piece of paper given to him by the Israeli military authorities.

It is a demolition order for his house, in reality a small shack in which Jasser, his wife and six children live.

Although the document acknowledges that Jasser owns the land (it has been in his family for several generations), it says he has no permission for the "wooden building" - his house.

Jasser shrugs and tells me there is absolutely no point applying for permission to build as Palestinians are rarely, if ever, allowed to build in the Jordan Valley area.

So while Jewish settlers prepare to establish homes, offices and school buildings, Jasser may well see his very modest home knocked down by a bulldozer.

It is not just the buildings. Jasser says he has been physically prevented by the Israeli military authorities from using natural springs in the area for drinking water and to irrigate his crops.

He says the settlers, though, are given as much water as they want from a pipeline which crosses over his land, but which he is not allowed to use.

Jasser says it is a similar story with an electricity supply, which is carried by an overhead line that passes right over his shack. It brings light, power and convenience to the settlers, but Jasser says he has no access to the power supply.

Movement restricted

Fathy Khadarat is a local Palestinian co-ordinator who has documented the steady movement of Palestinian villagers away from the Valley.

He also helps farmers like Jasser to mount legal challenges against demolition orders.

"I think the plan is to put pressure on him to leave this area", says Fathy. "If he can't build a simple house and is not allowed to use the water, he won't be able to grow crops and will have no income."

Despite many requests no-one from the Israeli authorities would be interviewed on the issue of the Maskiot settlement but, in a statement, the government said the settlement was Israeli land and that everyone in the area had the same legal rights and access to resources.

Israel says the Jordan Valley - the eastern flank of the occupied West Bank - is strategically important.

Not only does it form much of a long border with Jordan but Israel says many attacks by Palestinian militants have been launched from the area.

So, movement for Palestinians is restricted with road-blocks and checkpoints.

Jasser says if the army demolishes his home, he will build a new one. He has no intention of leaving his land.

Yossi is equally adamant after being shunted around the region for the last three years.

Neither man says he has any animosity towards the other, and both say they are prepared - in theory - to live side by side.

The future of the Jordan Valley, its Jewish settlements and Palestinian villages, will be decided in a Palestinian-Israeli peace deal.

If and when that happens, might there be a way of accommodating both Jasser and Yossi in this stunningly beautiful but often hostile strip of land?

Land battle in the Jordan Valley (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/7542097.stm)

China to export guns to Saudi Arabia
By Andrei Chang
Column: Military Might
Published: August 11, 2008

Hong Kong, China — China has signed a contract to provide Saudi Arabia with PLZ-45 155-mm self-propelled howitzers for one battalion, according to an authoritative military industry source. One battalion would normally be armed with 27 such guns.

This represents a second successful sale of PLZ-45s to the Middle East, following an earlier sale to Kuwait. In 2000, China exported 54 of the self-propelled guns to Kuwait, sufficient to arm two battalions.

This latest batch of PLZ-45s is primarily to be used for testing purposes, according to the industry source. Once the Saudi military determines that the weapons meet their needs, it is likely that it will import more of the howitzers.

However, the United States has voiced objections to the Saudis’ procurement of China-made howitzers, the source said.

Kuwait also faced immense pressure from the United States when it decided to import PLZ-45s from China. The publisher of a military journal in Kuwait told the author during a meeting in Abu Dhabi that the reason Kuwait chose to purchase the PLZ-45s was that the weapons compared well with similar systems available from the West, including the U.S.-made M109A3 howitzer. The guns performed satisfactorily in live-fire tests, he said, and China’s price could not be beat.

This is the first time for the Saudi Arabian Army to purchase China-made weapons. Riyadh has also expressed keen interest in the Pakistan-made A1-Khalid main battle tank, or MBT-2000. Pakistan plans to send the tank directly to Saudi Arabia for an in-kind exhibition.

The PLZ-45 fires three types of munitions – ERFB/HE, ERFB-BB/HE and ERFB-BB/RA/HE projectiles – which have respective firing ranges of 30, 39 and 50 kilometers. In addition, China has also introduced Russian Krasnople 155-mm gun-launched laser-guided munitions, under license from Russia.

The Kuwait military observer told the author that the Kuwait Army is not deliberating over whether it needs to import China-made guided munitions. He said the army has received a price offer on munitions from Chinese weapons supplier NORINCO and a technical introduction of the system.

So far, the United Arab Emirates is the only country that has imported the Chinese version of the Krasnople, which the Chinese call the GP1. The PLZ-45s to be exported to Saudi Arabia do not include GP1 projectiles.

Another source from the military industry says that the People’s Liberation Army is already using the latest Chinese Type 05 52x 155-mm self-propelled gun, but there is currently no plan to export this weapon to overseas markets. The reason is that the Chinese system is still technologically inferior to the NATO 155-mm gun.

The PLZ-45 system has already attained the NATO standard, however, and is thus capable of firing all types of munitions. It fires four to five rounds per minute, and a full load is 30 rounds.

Several international military observers have voiced the opinion that the Type 05 52x 155-mm self-propelled gun currently in use by the PLA is extremely similar to the Russian 2S19 serial 155-mm SPG. When asked about this, the designer of the PLZ-45 says such speculation is groundless and not true.

“China developed its 155-mm SPG much earlier than Russia, and the PLZ-45 was exported to overseas countries as early as 2000. There is no similar system in Russia comparable to the Chinese-made 155-mm SPG,” he insisted.

China to export guns to Saudi Arabia (http://upiasiaonline.com/Security/2008/08/05/china_to_export_guns_to_saudi_arabia/3615/)

Russia behind Georgia cyberwar?
SHAUN WATERMAN
Published: July 25, 2008
WASHINGTON, July 25 (UPI) -- The Web site of President Mikheil Saakashvili of Georgia was brought down this week by hackers apparently based in Russia, the latest in a string of cyberattacks directed against neighboring countries experiencing friction with the newly resurgent bear.

The attack was monitored by several U.S. Internet watch operations, including the center run by the Department of Homeland Security known as U.S.-CERT, for Computer Emergency Response Team.

A person at U.S.-CERT, authorized to speak to the media but not to give his name, said the center was "not involved in any response" but had passed information about the incident, called a Distributed Denial of Service attack, to DHS intelligence analysts.

The person said the attack did not look like a prelude to, or opening salvo in, any wider assault. "We don't think it is part of anything larger," he said.

In Lithuania, 300 Web sites were defaced earlier this month after a law was promulgated banning the public display of Soviet symbols. Estonian government Web sites were pounded by a massive series of DDOS attacks in April and May 2007, after a decision to move a monument honoring Soviet World War II soldiers. The attacks were part of a series of protests from Russia and ethnic Russians in Estonia.

DDOS attacks work by bombarding the server where the site is based with bogus messages and requests from huge networks of computers that, often unbeknownst to their owners, have been infected by malicious software and taken over by hackers.

Such bot-nets, short for robot-networks, can be rented from the hackers that run them, known as bot herders, and have been used before in cyberwar attacks like the one on Estonia last year.

The flood of messages makes the server unable to deal with legitimate Web traffic, so those trying to visit the site will experience abnormal delays and may not be able to reach it at all.

Security analysts who tracked the attack on Saakashvili's Web site say it, and other unrelated sites hosted on the same server, were unreachable or cripplingly slow for up to 24 hours.

A spokesman for the president told local news outlets nothing had happened.

"It's not true; the Web site didn't stop even for a minute over the weekend," spokesman Vano Noniashvili told the Georgian Messenger.

"It happened," said Marcus Sachs of the SANS Institute, a non-profit computer security research outfit that runs a 24-hour watch operation known as the Internet Storm Center.

Sachs said incident handlers at the center saw the first reports of the attack posted by a volunteer security monitoring operation called ShadowServer, but then independently confirmed the attack was in progress.

"We can see the commands being issued to the bot-net by its command and control server," Steven Adair of ShadowServer told UPI.

"This was the first and (so far) only attack command we have seen issued," Adair said, adding the group had been "monitoring that bot-net for some time."

"We didn't expect it to be so interesting," he said.

Adair and Jose Nazario, senior security researcher at Arbor Networks, both conformed to UPI that the president's site, www.president.gov.ge, had been unreachable or cripplingly slow for up to 24 hours.

Nazario said that although the company providing Internet service to the U.S.-based command and control server had taken it offline shortly after the attack began, it was too late by then, because the slave computers in the bot-net already had received their attack instructions.

"That didn't stop the attack," he said. "The attack stopped when it was over."

Neither Noniashvili nor his deputy responded within 24 hours to an e-mail request for clarification. Officials at the Georgian Embassy in Washington said the press spokesman was out of the country and no one could add anything to the spokesman's denial.

One reason officials are sometimes reluctant to talk about such incidents is that, because bot-nets can be rented anonymously, there is often no way to tell who is really behind a cyberattack.

Nazario noted that the bot-net commands contained the phrase "Win love in Russia," which he said was "a not very subtle way to leave no doubt about where they came from."

Adair said the registration information for the Internet domain controlled by the command server gave a Russian contact address. "The WHOIS contact information was in Russia," he said, referring to the massive database that lists the occupant of every piece of Internet real estate.

But Adair acknowledged it is more than easy to provide bogus information in the database, and that cybercriminals often do so.

And one Internet security analyst, who was in Russia at the time, told UPI that Russian network specialists were of the opinion that Ukraine was behind the attack and was trying to pin the blame on Russia.

"Attribution is always a problem," said Nazario.

Russia behind Georgia cyberwar? (http://www.metimes.com/Security/2008/07/25/analysis_russia_behind_georgia_cyberwar/fa33/)

Russia, Georgia green light Turkey-sponsored Caucasian union
Russia and Georgia have given the green light to Turkey's proposal for a Caucasus alliance, as Turkish Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan met Thursday Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili a day after his meetings with the Russian president and prime minister. (UPDATED)

Russia, Georgia green light Turkey-sponsored Caucasian union

Erdogan, accompanied by Foreign Minister Ali Babacan, arrived in the Georgian capital of Tbilisi to meet Saakashvili over the clashes in South Ossetia and Turkey's proposal for a Caucasian stability forum.

Turkey wants to secure peace, and to form a cooperation platform which would serve to develop common stability in the region, Erdogan told a joint press conference with Saakashivili.

"We asked Georgia to participate in this platform. Our proposal for was also welcomed by Russia," he added.

Erdogan also said Turkey supports Georgia's independence, sovereignty and territorial integrity, adding
he would visit Azerbaijan to discuss the security of the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline.

Erdogan and the accompanying delegation later left Tbilisi for Turkey.

MEETINGS IN MOSCOW

The Turkish prime minister on Wednesday met with President Dmitry Medvedev and Prime Minister Vladimir Putin in Moscow where he underlined the "large importance" of regional solidarity.

Turkish and Russian foreign ministers would speed up efforts to develop the Stability and Cooperation Platform in the Caucasus suggested by Turkey, Erdogan said in Russia, adding Turkey and Russia agreed to work together to develop the platform.

"We want it to conduce to an economic cooperation... We want it to lead to cooperation on regional peace and security," he said.

"We also want this establishment to assume crisis management and seek solution in case of a problem in the region," he added. Erdogan said the foreign ministers of the two countries would launch talks and develop the idea.

Russia, Georgia green light Turkey-sponsored Caucasian union (http://www.hurriyet.com.tr/english/world/9658860.asp?scr=1)

Iran's ImaNutjob meets Gul in Turkey

Aug. 14, 2008
Associated Press , THE JERUSALEM POST

Iran and Turkey signed cooperation agreements Thursday but failed to complete a deal to build a new natural gas pipeline - a project the United States has opposed.

Washington has said any new energy deal between Iran and Turkey would send the wrong message while the West threatens new economic sanctions regarding Teheran's refusal to halt uranium enrichment. The European Union and the United States believe Iran plans to develop nuclear weapons - a claim that Teheran denies.

On Thursday, President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad of Iran and Turkish President Abdullah Gul witnessed the public signing of a series of cooperation deals in a demonstration of improved ties between the Islamic Republic and the NATO ally.

Ministers from both countries signed deals to combat drugs trafficking and cooperate in environment, transportation, tourism and culture.

The two nations also issued a joint statement stressing their determination for further cooperation in the energy field. But Iran and Turkey failed to reach agreement on the construction of the proposed gas pipeline.

"There are some snags," said Turkey's interior minister, Besir Atalay, without providing any details.

Turkey's Energy Minister Hilmi Guler said: "the negotiations will continue," on the new pipeline project, which is aimed at ensuring reliable supply of Iranian natural gas to Turkey.

Turkey already receives gas through an existing pipeline from Iran, but its flow often is sporadic during winters. The proposed pipeline could have an annual capacity of 40 billion cubic meters and possibly be connected to a network of US-backed pipelines carrying natural gas to Europe through Turkey, energy officials say.

Relations between the two countries have improved since Turkey's Islamic-rooted leadership took power in 2002. Previous governments had for decades accused Iran of trying to export its radical Islamic regime to secular Turkey, which is aspiring to join the European Union.

Ahmadinejad was holding talks with Gul during the two-day visit - his first to Turkey since he came to power in 2005.

Turkey has said it is not opposed to Iran's nuclear program if it is only for civilian use to generate power.

The United States also has opposed plans for Turkish investment in Iran's South Pars gas fields and the possibility of the Islamic Republic selling its gas to European markets via a US-backed pipeline through Turkey.

Turkey's military regards a nuclear Iran as a possible security threat but has shared intelligence with Iran as the two countries staged simultaneous attacks against their common enemy, Kurdish guerrillas based in northern Iraq.

Iran's ImaNutjob meets Gul in Turkey (http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?cid=1218446200938&pagename=JPost%2FJPArticle%2FPrinter)
~~~~~~~~~~~~

Turkey is a part of NATO also. I'm sure something has to happen eventually for Turkey to officially join with Iran and Russia, I just wonder what it could be.

Georgian TV reporter shot by Russian sniper during live broadcast carries on with her report
Last updated at 21:51pm on 14.08.08

This is the dramatic moment a TV reporter was shot by a sniper as she reported live from war-torn Georgia.

Tamara Urushadze took a bullet to her left arm in the flashpoint town of Gori as Russian forces continued their illegal occupation.

Bravely, or foolishly, the 32-year-old brunette continued her report after a few moments as other journalists and aid workers dashed for cover.

Siege-town Gori has become a deadly 'sniper's alley' with citizens at the mercy of rampaging militiamen - believed to be from the breakaway republic South Ossetia - looting and firing guns, some drunkenly.

The Kremlin stands accused of turning a blind eye to renegades bent on 'ethnic cleansing' in revenge for Georgia's ill-conceived invasion of South Ossetia last Friday.

But in turn Moscow blames the Georgians for abandoning their own people.

Miss Urushadze, who reports for Georgia's equivalent of the BBC, was talking live to a TV camera about humanitarian aid arriving in Gori yesterday afternoon when the sniper struck.

In the footage, she gasps as the first bullet grazes her left arm, and instinctively jumps sideways as four more whizz past.

In shock, she slumps to the ground as the cameraman rushes to her side.

A studio presenter's voice is heard saying: 'You can see that something has happened during live coverage. Unfortunately we don't know what.'

Then Miss Urushadze is on air again, sitting in a van a few yards away and showing the camera her grazed arm.

She tells viewers: 'I have been hit by a bullet. You can see I am scratched here. Most likely it was a sniper.

'It has most likely been a light weapon as it's a minor wound. There is no one to be seen here and I have no idea who shot me.'

She was later taken to hospital.

Meanwhile, Russia taunted the United States by blowing up its ally's military bases and boasting Georgia will never get back the rebel enclaves of South Ossetia and Abkhazia.

The Kremlin's troops sabotaged airfields and depots in Georgia to cripple the battered state's U.S.-trained military.

And the former Red Army humiliated their beaten foes by one minute withdrawing from Georgian territory and then re-entering it, just to prove that they still could.

At least five explosions rocked Gori as Russian troops went about disabling Georgia's ability to fight a future conflict.

Again it was the innocents who suffered most as the few remaining citizens in the abandoned city were targeted.

A steady, dejected trickle of Georgian refugees fled the front line in overloaded cars, trucks and tractor-pulled wagons, heading to the capital Tbilisi.

One Soviet-era car carried eight people, including a mother and a baby in the front seat. The open back door of a small blue van revealed at least a dozen people crowded inside.

There was also a tense stand-off between frustrated Georgian special forces, desperate to hit back, and battle-hardened Russian troops from Chechnya at a checkpoint on the outskirts of the city.

Around midday, Russian tanks sped towards the checkpoint and Georgian police quickly retreated behind their own forces.

Outside the town, hundreds of Georgian tanks, artillery and armoured personnel carriers massed on the main east-west highway.

Soldiers dozed in the sunshine by their vehicles awaiting the order to advance.

But in a throwback to darker Cold War times, Moscow seems intent on taking its time to withdraw its vastly superior forces, in a deliberate snub to President Bush's decision to raise the stakes by ordering U.S. forces to the region.

He sent American military aircraft loaded with humanitarian aid.

U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice issued another urgent call on Russia to honour the ceasefire as she headed to Tbilisi to have a final version of the truce agreement signed by the Georgian president.

But even as she spoke, Russian troops were making themselves at home in the country, including the Black Sea port city of Poti which hosts an oil terminal key to supplying fuel to Western Europe.

The Russian troops in Gori told us they would stay put 'until Mr Putin says so', adding they were in no hurry and mockingly praising the 'beautiful scenery' around them.

Moscow made it clear that the Black Sea state can wave goodbye to ever seeing its two breakaway provinces, South Ossetia and Abkhazia, becoming part of Georgia.

Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov rammed home the point by declaring that the world 'can forget about any talk about Georgia's territorial integrity'.

President Dmitry Medvedev vowed to act as 'protector' to the two pro-Russian regions and met their leaders in the Kremlin, telling them: 'You have defended your territory. The truth was on your side. That is why you have been victorious.

'The people of South Ossetia suffered genocide and it will take years, maybe decades, for these wounds to be healed.'

The incendiary talk a week after the war began dashed both Georgian and Western hopes that the region could return to the status quo before the bloodshed which has left hundreds dead and thousands of refugees on both sides.

Georgian TV reporter shot by Russian sniper during live broadcast carries on with her report (http://www.thisislondon.co.uk/news/article-23532788-details/Video%3A+Georgian+TV+reporter+shot+by+Russian+sniper+during+live+broadcast+carries+on+with+her+report+with+bleeding+arm/article.do)

Russia: Georgia can 'forget' regaining provinces

By DAVID NOWAK and CHRISTOPHER TORCHIA
Associated Press Writers 1 hour, 28 minutes ago

TBILISI, Georgia - The foreign minister of Russia said Thursday that Georgia could "forget about" getting back its two breakaway provinces, and the former Soviet republic remained on edge as Russia sent tank columns to search out and destroy Georgian military equipment.

Uncertainty about Russia's intentions and back-and-forth charges clouded the conflict two days after Russia and Georgia signaled acceptance of a French-brokered cease-fire, and a week after Georgia's crackdown on the two provinces drew a Russian military response.

Diplomats focused on finalizing a fragile cease-fire between the two nations and clear the way for Russian withdrawal. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice was heading Friday for Georgia to press the president to sign the deal.

Georgian officials accused Russia of sending a column of tanks and other armored vehicles toward Kutaisi, the second-largest city in Georgia, then said the convey stopped about 35 miles out.

"We have no idea what they're doing there, why the movement, where they're going," Georgian Prime Minister Lado Gurgenidze said in a telephone briefing. "One explanation could be they are trying to rattle the civilian population."

The U.S. said a move toward Kutaisi would be a matter of great concern, but two defense officials told The Associated Press the Pentagon did not detect any major movement by Russia troops or tanks. There was no immediate response from Russia itself.

"I think the world should think very carefully about what is going on here," Georgian President Mikhail Saakashvili said. "We need to stop everything that can be stopped now."

The Russian president met in the Kremlin with the leaders of the provinces, South Ossetia and Abkhazia, a clear sign Moscow could absorb the regions even though the territory is internationally recognized as being within Georgia's borders. And Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov issued a blunt message to Georgia and the world that appeared to challenge President Bush's demand a day earlier that Russia must respect the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Georgia.

"One can forget about any talk about Georgia's territorial integrity because, I believe, it is impossible to persuade South Ossetia and Abkhazia to agree with the logic that they can be forced back into the Georgian state."

The White House said Thursday that the U.S. position was unchanged and dismissed Lavrov's remark as bluster. Defense Secretary Robert Gates warned Russia was in danger of hurting relations with the U.S. "for years to come" but said he did not see "any prospect" for the use of American military force in Georgia.

As the military and diplomatic battles played out, relief planes swooped into Tbilisi with tons of supplies for the estimated 100,000 people uprooted by the fighting.

U.S. officials said their two planes carried cots, blankets, medicine and surgical supplies — but the Russians insinuated that the United States, a Georgia ally, might have sent in military aid as well. U.S. officials rejected the claim.

Even as the relief rolled in, U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon warned the fighting and lawlessness was keeping it from reaching large parts of Georgia. In some places, relief officials were overwhelmed by the sheer numbers of refugees.

"This is too much. It is all too much," said Manana Karelidze, a 50-year-old retired accountant, who said she had waited for days at the Department of Refugees in the Georgian capital for registration and dry pasta. There were hundreds like her.

Russian troops spent the day searching selected cities, forests and fields for military equipment left behind by Georgian forces.

The Georgian ambassador to the United States, H.E. Vasil Sikharulidze, said Russia was employing "scorched-earth" tactics — destroying Georgian commercial and military infrastructure and burning down religious sites beyond the conflict area of South Ossetia.

"What defenses does Georgia have? Because of the cease-fire agreement, which Russia has not honored, Georgian troops are being moved to organize a defensive line 10 kilometers (six miles) away from Tbilisi," he said.

Sikharulidze said an attack on Kutaisi would be a "catastrophe,"

On the edge of the strategically important city of Gori, Georgian soldiers pointed their weapons at Russian forces, and explosions and small arms fire broke out in the distance.

Georgia claimed Russians had left the oil port city of Poti, but hours later some forces were still there.

Georgia also accused Russia of using short-range missiles in Poti and Gori, showing reporters purported images of shrapnel. There was no immediate response from Russia.

Russian and Georgian troops briefly patrolled Gori, but relations between the two sides broke down and the Georgians left. At least 20 explosions were heard later near Gori, along with small-arms fire.

It was not clear whether it was renewed fighting or the disposal of ordnance from a nearby Georgian military base. Russia said its troops were there to establish contact with the civilian administration and take over abandoned military depots.

Gori, battered by Russian bombing over the week, lies on Georgia's main east-west road only 60 miles west of Tbilisi. AP Television News footage showed Russian troops in and near Gori, and Georgia said it was checking the area for mines.

An AP Television News crew heard explosions at a military base in the western city of Senaki and were told by officials from both Russia and Georgia that the Russians were destroying ordnance. Dozens of Russian armored vehicles and troops later set up for the night under camouflage on the main road from Senaki north to Zugdidi.

The same APTN crew followed Russian troops on the outskirts of Poti as they searched a field and a forest at an old Soviet military base for possible Georgian military equipment.

Georgia's coast guard said Russian troops burned four Georgian patrol boats in Poti on Wednesday, then returned Thursday to loot and destroy the coast guard's radar and other equipment.

Another APTN camera crew saw Russian soldiers and military vehicles parked inside the Georgian government's elegant gated residence in the western town of Zugdidi. Some of the Russian soldiers wore blue peacekeeping helmets, others wore green camouflage helmets, all were heavily armed. Other Russian troops patrolled the city.

"We don't want them here. What we need is friendship and good relations with the Russian people," Ygor Gegenava, an elderly Zugdidi resident, told the APTN crew.

In London, BP PLC said it resumed pumping natural gas Thursday through one Georgia pipeline, but two oil pipelines in Georgia remain closed.

The Russian General Prosecutor's office said it had formally opened a genocide probe into Georgian treatment of South Ossetians. Georgia sued Russia in international court, alleging murder, rape and mass expulsions of Georgians in both provinces.

Russia: Georgia can 'forget' regaining provinces (http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080815/ap_on_re_eu/georgia_russia;_ylt=AmeyGTXyWa8BwsyuvKldpMhg.3QA)

NATO ships in Black Sea not linked to Georgia
27.03.2008 @ 09:01 CET

Germany and other western European states are attempting to block Georgia and Ukraine from getting the green light to join NATO out of a fear of antagonising Russia.

Citing diplomatic sources, German daily Financial Times Deutschland says that a group of western countries do not want Tbilisi and Kiev to get candidate status for membership of the military alliance, something they are due to receive at a high-level summit in Bucharest next week.

At the 2-4 April meeting, Georgia and Ukraine are hoping to get approval for their membership action plans (MAP). This would be considered as a signal that their application bid is on the right track.

The camp of blocking states is said to include Germany, France, Italy, Spain, the Netherlands, Belgium, Portugal and Luxembourg.

A fear of annoying Russia which is categorically against its two neighbours joining a military organisation to which it does not belong is behind the move.

Earlier in the week, incoming Russian president Dmitry Medvedev said in a Financial Times interview that Moscow was "not happy" with the situation.

"We consider that it is extremely troublesome for the existing structure of European security," he said.

The move by Germany and France and others puts them in the path of US president George W. Bush, who is in favour of Ukraine and Georgia joining NATO. Eastern EU member states such as Poland are also lobbying in favour of Tbilisi's and Kiev's membership.

Berlin opposition stems from a desire to keep talks on a compromise between Russia and the US on Washington's planned missile defence shield - to be placed in Poland and the Czech Republic and strongly opposed by Moscow - on track.

Meanwhile, Georgia has called on NATO not to bow to pressure from Russia.

Foreign minister David Bakradze said it would inflame tensions in the region if Moscow gets its way on this issue.

"'No' in Bucharest will be very clearly seen by some people in Moscow as their success, and it will be very clearly seen in Moscow that they have indirect veto right on NATO decisions," he said on Wednesday (26 March).

From all our experience with Russians, the most effective policy with Russians is policy based on principles, not on appeasement," he added.

NATO ships in Black Sea not linked to Georgia (http://euobserver.com/9/25873)

Abkhazia asks Russia to recognize independence
August 20, 2008

One of Georgia's breakaway regions has asked Russia to recognize independence, according to a report by the Russian news agency Interfax.

Lawmakers in Abkhazia approved the request from President Sergei Bagapsh, Interfax reported. The president also called for a friendship and mutual assistance treaty, which would call for maintaining Russian peacekeepers in the region -- located in western Georgia.

"I propose that the Russian Federation recognize the Republic of Abkhazia as a sovereign and independent state and establish diplomatic relations between Abkhazia and Russia," Bagapsh said in his appeal.

The recent fighting between Russia and Georgia centered on developments in South Ossetia, the other breakaway region, where Georgia launched a large-scale attack on August 7 after a week of what it said were separatist attacks on villages near the enclave.

The next day Russia sent hundreds of tanks and armored vehicles across the international border, driving into Georgia from South Ossetia and Abkhazia.

South Ossetian and Abkhaz authorities consider their regions independent. But Georgia considers those Russian-backed separatist areas part of Georgian territory, a position underscored by international law and agreements.

Russian officials have said those regions should have self-determination, and that the Russian government would support the people there in whatever they supported.

President Bush on Wednesday called the invasion a "disproportionate response" and repeated his position on the breakaway regions.

"South Ossetia and Abkhazia are part of Georgia," Bush said, and the United States "will work with our allies to assure Georgia's independence and territorial integrity."

"Georgia has stood for freedom around the world, and now the world must stand with Georgia," Bush said in a speech at the annual convention of the Veterans of Foreign Wars.

Meanwhile, finance ministers for the Group of Seven nations -- the United States, Canada, Japan, Great Britain, Germany, France and Italy -- pledged Wednesday to help war-wracked Georgia rebuild its economy and infrastructure.

"We, the G-7, stand ready to support Georgia in order to promote the continued health of the Georgian economy, maintain confidence in Georgia's financial system and support economic reconstruction," the ministers said in a joint statement.

The ministers urged Georgia, other nations, and organizations such as the World Bank, European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, European Investment Bank and European Commission to support reconstruction efforts.

Also Wednesday, Jakob Kellenberger, president of the International Committee of the Red Cross, speaking at the organization's headquarters in Geneva, said it would send workers to Tskhinvali, capital of South Ossetia, as well as bolster its presence in badly affected areas of Georgia.

Both Russia and Georgia have accused each other of ethnic cleansing during the conflict.

The Red Cross announcement came after discussions between Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and Kellenberger.

Kellenberger said that the priority in South Ossetia would be to "restore contact between family members who have been separated by the conflict and to obtain information about people who remain unaccounted for," as well as "visit all those captured or detained in connection with the conflict to assess their treatment and living conditions."

He added that in Georgia the organization had already brought in more that 430 tons of food and other relief supplies for up to 25,000 people during the past week.

The civilian death toll from the conflict is unclear. Russia has said as many as 2,000 people were killed when Georgian forces cracked down on Tskhinvali, but Georgia said the death toll is in the hundreds.

The U.N. refugee agency estimates that nearly 160,000 people have been displaced by the fighting, from Georgia proper and South Ossetia and Abkhazia.

Gen. Anatoly Nogovitsyn, Russia's deputy chief of staff of armed forces, said Wednesday that 64 of its soldiers died during fighting with Georgia, with another 323 wounded.

NATO Secretary-General Jaap de Hoop Scheffer said Tuesday that Russian forces were still inside Georgia, despite a European Union-brokered cease-fire agreement to withdraw -- and despite Moscow's saying it had begun pulling out Monday.

"We do not see signals of this happening," Scheffer said after a meeting of NATO foreign ministers. "There can be no business as usual with Russia under the present circumstances."

A statement from the ministers said that NATO members "remain concerned by Russia's actions," the statement said, calling Russian military action "disproportionate." Video Watch Georgia react to NATO statement (http://www.cnn.com/2008/WORLD/europe/08/20/georgia.russia.war/index.html#cnnSTCVideo)

But Lavrov said NATO's accusations were "biased."

Abkhazia asks Russia to recognize independence (http://www.cnn.com/2008/WORLD/europe/08/20/georgia.russia.war/index.html)

Russians Seize Georgia Soldiers, U.S. Humvees

August 20, 2008

A top Russian general said Wednesday that 64 of the country's soldiers were killed in this month's fighting with Georgia and 323 were wounded.

The figure given by Col. Gen. Anatoly Nogovistsyn, deputy head of the general staff, reduces the fatality toll from the initial figure of 74 but substantially raises the number of wounded. Russia previously had said about 170 were wounded.

Georgian officials have said they lost 160 soldiers and that 300 are missing. Russia claims Georgian losses are much higher.

Russia stood behind its pledge to withdraw its troops from most of neighboring Georgia by Friday, rebuffing pressure from the United States, United Nations and NATO to leave sooner.

It remains to be seen whether Russia will follow through with the pledge, as a Pentagon official said Tuesday that there appears to be no significant change in the Russian military's occupation of the region despite an earlier promises to withdraw.

Russia signed a cease-fire with Georgia on Saturday, but since then, its troops have appeared to be digging in rather than pulling back after the fighting over the rebel province of South Ossetia.

A FOX News crew on the ground in Georgia described the Russians as "crack and combat ready," and on Tuesday, Russian soldiers took about 20 Georgian troops prisoner at a key Black Sea port in western Georgia, blindfolding them and holding them at gunpoint. They also commandeered American Humvees awaiting shipment back to a U.S. base. The vehicles had been used in a military exercise recently in Georgia involving U.S. and Georgian troops.

Yet there has some progress toward resolution of the dispute that reignited Cold War tensions. A small column of Russian tanks and armored vehicles left the strategic Georgian city of Gori, and the two countries exchanged prisoners captured during their brief war.

The U.N. Security Council held emergency consultations Tuesday over a draft proposal backing the cease-fire, calling for Georgia's sovereignty to be respected and pledging cooperation to peacekeepers and relief workers. But Russia's U.N. ambassador said Moscow could not support the proposal, Reuters reported.

Ambassador Vitaly Churkin told the council that the resolution, which was promoted by French President Nicolas Sarkozy, should endorse the six-point peace plan signed by Georgia and Russia. Russia holds veto power on the Security Council, and since the resolution did not endorse the six-part plan, "the Russian Federation will not be able to support (it)," Reuters reported.

The Unseen War in Georgia

The deputy head of Russia's general staff, Col. Gen. Anatoly Nogovitsyn, said Russian forces plan to remain in Poti until a local administration is formed, but did not give further details. He also justified previous seizures of Georgian soldiers as necessary to crack down on soldiers who were "out of any kind of control ... acting without command."

An AP television crew has seen Russian troops in and around Poti all week, with local port officials saying the Russians had destroyed radar, boats and other Coast Guard equipment there.

Russian troops last week drove Georgian forces out of South Ossetia, where Georgia on Aug. 7 launched a heavy artillery barrage in the separatist Georgian province with close ties to Russia. Fighting also has flared in a second Russian-backed separatist region, Abkhazia.

The short war has driven tensions between Russia and the West to some of their highest levels since the breakup of the Soviet Union, but Russian President Dmitry Medvedev has icily defended Russia's actions.

"Anyone who tries anything like that will face a crushing response," he said Monday. Later Medvedev handed out military medals to Russian soldiers involved in the fighting.

The cease-fire requires both sides to return to positions held before the fighting began, but Whitman said Tuesday morning in Washington that it didn't appear Russia had made any significant withdrawal of forces.

"So far we have not seen any significant movement out of Georgia," he said.

For the prisoner exchange Tuesday, two Russian military helicopters landed in the village of Igoeti, the closest that Russian forces have advanced to the Georgian capital of Tbilisi. Soldiers and men in unmarked clothing got off and two people in stretchers were taken to Georgian officials.

Georgian ambulances later brought two other people to the Russian choppers. One was on a gurney.

Georgian Security Council head Alexander Lomaia told reporters in Igoeti that 15 Georgians and five Russians were exchanged. "It went smoothly," he said. The operation also witnessed by Russian Maj. Gen. Vyacheslav Borisov, who commands troops in the area.

Lomaia said the exchange removed any pretext for Russians to keep holding positions in Igoeti, 30 miles west of Tbilisi, or anywhere else on Georgia's only significant east-west highway.

In Brussels, Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice was backing the setting up of a permanent NATO-Georgia Commission to solidify ties between the Western alliance and Georgia. Diplomats said Washington also supports increasing training for the Georgian military.

At the same time, NATO foreign ministers were discussing possibly scaling back high-level meetings and military cooperation with Russia if it does not abandon crucial positions across Georgia. But there were differences within the alliance over how far to go in punishing Moscow.

At a separate meeting, the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe said Russia agreed to allow 20 more international military monitors in and around South Ossetia.

Finnish Foreign Minister Alexander Stubb says the plan calls for the observers to be sent immediately to Tbilisi. The group already has nine observers based in South Ossetia.

The United Nations has estimated that the fighting displaced more than 158,000 people. U.N. refugee chief Antonio Guterres arrived in Tbilisi on Tuesday to meet with government representatives to discuss the plight of tens of thousands of South Ossetians uprooted by Georgia's conflict with Russia.

Guterres then will travel to Moscow to meet with Russian officials, U.N. High Commissioner for Refugees spokesman Andrej Mahecic said.

Mahecic told journalists in Geneva that UNHCR, like other aid agencies, has not been able to reach the civilian population in much of South Ossetia because of security issues there. The area is now controlled by Russia.

"We have seen media reports indicating that people are being shot at while trying to leave the area," he said.

In Gori, most shops were shut and people milled around on the central square with its statue of the Soviet dictator and native son Josef Stalin.

"The city is a cold place now. People are fearful," says Nona Khizanishvili, 44, who fled Gori a week ago for an outlying village and returned Monday, trying to reach her son in Tbilisi.

Russians Seize Georgia Soldiers, U.S. Humvees (http://www.foxnews.com/printer_friendly_story/0,3566,405963,00.html)

Joint Arab Force in Gaza
20 Av 5768, August 21, '08
by Ze'ev Ben-Yechiel

Hamas told Egypt and Jordan Tuesday that they reject the proposal by the two countries to send a multinational Arab peacekeeping force to restore order to Gaza.

Spokesmen for the Palestinian Authority terrorist group that now governs Gaza said Tuesday that such a move would only deepen divisions among Gaza Arabs. They said it signals an attempt by Egypt and Jordan to reassert control over Gaza and Judea-Samaria.

According to the proposal, an Arab security force headed by Egypt would be deployed in Gaza to enable the PA to “reconstruct” their police forces, long since torn apart by infighting between supporters of Hamas and those loyal to the Fatah terror group, as part of an Egypt-led effort to reconcile the warring terrorist factions. The Egyptian state-run Middle East News Agency (MENA) earlier reported that the two factions, which currently control the PA in Gaza and Judea-Samaria respectively, will meet to discuss ways to end their years-long struggle, in which dozens of terrorists as well as civilians have been killed.

The peacekeeping initiative was proposed earlier this week to Hamas by Egypt and Jordan, and it is backed by the Fatah-led PA government in Ramallah and by Saudi Arabia. The Saudis told visiting PA Chairman Mahmoud Abbas that they would do everything in their power to convince Hamas to accept it.

PA Prime Minister Salaam Fayad, a key Fatah supporter of the initiative, issued a statement from Ramallah that he believes that the proposal would be the only solution for peace between his group and Hamas.

Speaking for Hamas’s opposition to the move, Ayman Taha, a spokesman for the terror group, said that “Hamas is capable of imposing law and order in the Gaza Strip and we don't need external forces here. The deployment of Arab troops would only serve to consolidate the split between the West Bank and Gaza."

Abbas's support for the idea showed that he was "not serious" about ending the ongoing power struggle between his faction and Hamas, according to Taha.

The Hamas spokesman also denied the Tuesday report published by MENA that Egypt has invited representatives of Hamas and Fatah to Cairo for reconciliation talks, as well as reports that Syrian-based Hamas leader Khaled Mashaal was planning to visit Cairo to discuss a resolution to the conflict.

Several Hamas leaders fear that the latest proposal from Egypt and Jordan is nothing more than an attempt to restore the situation existing prior to1967, when Egypt ruled Gaza while Jordan possessed Judea and Samaria.

"This initiative is totally unacceptable," said Ismail al-Ashkar, a Hamas legislator in Gaza. "We need Palestinian national forces that would be able to defend the homeland, and not Arab armies."

He, like Taha, denied the report of an imminent dialogue between Hamas and Fatah in Egypt.

However, Nabil Amr, the PA’s envoy to Cairo, confirmed that representatives of various Palestinian terror factions would indeed be meeting in Egypt next week to discuss implementation of a "national reconciliation." Amr did not indicate whether Hamas would be one of the “factions” attending.

Joint Arab Force in Gaza (http://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/127266)

Another part of ancient Persia looks like it may soon be falling away from the U.S.

Suicide bombing at Pakistan arms factory kills 50

Twin suicide bombings at a massive weapons factory near Pakistan's capital killed at least 50 people Thursday, dashing hopes for an end to turmoil following Pervez Musharraf's ouster as president.

The ruling coalition government, made up of traditional rivals who were united primarily in their determination to force Musharraf from office, meanwhile appeared veering toward collapse.

The two main parties have been unable to bridge key differences, like whether judges fired by the one-time military ruler should be quickly reinstated and who should succeed him as president.

Pakistanis have urged the civilian government to stop bickering and turn quickly to tackling the country's problems from an economic downturn to extremist violence in the volatile northwest, where fighting between security forces and Islamic militants has escalated in recent weeks.

The Taliban claimed responsibility for Thursday's blasts at the government arms factory 20 miles west of Islamabad, which occurred as workers were heading home.

Maulvi Umar, a spokesman for Pakistani Taliban groups, told The Associated Press the attacks were in revenge for military airstrikes in Bajur, a militant stronghold near the Afghan border.

Similar bombings would be carried out in other major cities, including Islamabad, unless the operations were halted, he said.

The arms factory lies on the road heading toward Pakistan's troubled northwest.

Asghar Mahmood, a doctor at the Pakistan Ordnance Factories hospital said 50 were killed and over 100 wounded, many of them critically. Security officials said the death toll would likely rise.

Rana Tanveer, who was working at a bank about 200 yards from one of the gates where a bomber struck, said he was among the first to reach the scene.

"All around the gate I saw blood and human flesh. People helped the injured and took them in their cars and even on motorbikes to the hospital," he said. "Seven or eight people were already dead and another 10 people were breathing their last."

Musharraf, who had been a key supporter of the U.S. war on terrorism, resigned Monday to dodge the humiliation of impeachment following nearly nine years in power.

The coalition government, meanwhile, has resumed debate over how to restore dozens of Supreme Court judges Musharraf fired last year to avoid legal challenges to his rule.

The maneuver deepened his unpopularity, propelling his rivals to victory in parliamentary elections five months ago, and turned the judges into controversial political figures.

Former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif's party threatened Thursday to leave the ruling coalition unless the judges were quickly reinstated and the coalition's biggest bloc, the Pakistan People's Party, appeared to be lining up smaller parties to keep control of parliament in case that happened.

"The future of this coalition is linked to the restoration of judges," Sharif's spokesman Sadiqul Farooq told The Associated Press. "If the judges are not restored, we will prefer to sit on opposition benches."

Sharif wants to restore the all the justices, who could help him if he decides to seek revenge against Musharraf, who ousted the former premier in a 1999 coup, jailed him and then banished him to exile in Saudi Arabia.

But Asif Ali Zardari, the leader of the Pakistan People's Party, is less enthusiastic. He has accused former chief justice Iftikhar Mohammed Chaudhry of being too political.

Analysts say he also may be worried the former chief justice would revive corruption cases against him or facilitate legal action against Musharraf—a destabilizing move sure to dismay the country's Western backers, especially the United States.

The People's Party said Thursday it was committed to restoring the judges but that it had other priorities as well, including improving the lives of ordinary Pakistanis who are struggling with chronic food and fuel shortages.

"We hope the coalition will not break," Farzana Raja, the ruling party's spokeswoman, told Pakistani Waqt news channel.

The coalition also must seek agreement on a candidate for the presidency. The new leader must be elected by lawmakers by mid-September.

The People's Party insisted this week that, as the largest party in the coalition, it has the right to choose the new head of state, something unlikely to go over well with Sharif.

Though they have yet to name a candidate, party members were talking up a candidacy for Zardari, who comes from the well-off southern province of Sindh.

Sharif's party was arguing for a president from one of the smaller province—Baluchistan or North West Frontier—in order to strengthen Pakistan's strained federation.

Turkey bows to the dark side

Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's visit is a sign that the West can no longer take Turkey for granted as a staunch ally against Iran.
By Soner Cagaptay
August 19, 2008

ISTANBUL, TURKEY -- Praying in Istanbul's Blue Mosque on Friday, I witnessed firsthand Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's international publicity coup.

Ahmadinejad's visit produced little in terms of substantive policy; the signing of a multibillion-dollar natural gas pipeline deal was put off. But Ahmadinejad got something just as valuable: a chance to spin his own image, court popularity and bash the United States and Israel.

I've long been fond of the Blue Mosque because it is where, many years ago, I attended my first Friday prayers. Last Friday, though, I felt uncomfortable in the prayer hall, where I found myself in front of God but next to Ahmadinejad, who turned the ritual into a political show.

Departing from established practice of having visiting Muslim heads of state pray in a smaller mosque in Istanbul, the government allowed Ahmadinejad to pray in the Blue Mosque, Turkey's symbol of tolerant Ottoman Islam. With permission from Turkish authorities, he also allowed Iranian television to videotape him during the entire prayer, in violation of Islamic tradition, which requires quiet and intimate communion between God and the faithful. There was so much commotion around Ahmadinejad that the imam had to chide the congregants. Then, as he left the mosque, Ahmadinejad got out of his car to encourage a crowd of about 300 to chant, "Death to Israel! Death to America!"

Even without this behavior, any visit from a leader representing an authoritarian, anti-Western autocracy would have created controversy in Turkey just a few years ago. Not today. The ruling Justice and Development Party, or AKP, government not only opened the Blue Mosque to Ahmadinejad but accommodated his refusal to pay respects at the mausoleum of Kemal Ataturk, the founder of modern, secular Turkey -- a major violation of protocol for an official visit.

In 1996, when Iran's president, Hashemi Rafsanjani, refused to go to Ataturk's mausoleum, snubbing Turkey's identity as a secular pro-Western state, it led to a public outcry and sharp criticism of Iran. Relations soured. When the Iranian ambassador suggested a few months later that Turkey should follow Sharia law, he was forced to leave the country.

This time, though, the AKP government has taken a different stance, playing down the diplomatic insult. It moved the meeting from the capital, Ankara, to Istanbul and labeled it a "working" meeting rather than an official visit. Yet all sorts of AKP officials flocked to Istanbul to meet with the Iranian president.

Turkish Foreign Minister Ali Babacan asked the Turkish public to ignore the snub and instead "focus on the big picture." It is the "big picture," though, that is most disconcerting. By extending an invitation to Ahmadinejad, the first such move by any NATO or European Union member country, Turkey has broken ranks with the West. The West can no longer take Turkey for granted as a staunch ally against Tehran.

In the past, Turkey stood with the West, especially after the 1979 Islamist revolution in Iran. Also, Tehran gave refuge to the Kurdistan Workers Party, or PKK, which carried out terror attacks in Turkey from bases in Iran. Since the Iraq war began, however, Iran has shifted tactics to win Turkey's heart. While the U.S. delayed taking action, Iran actually bombed PKK camps in northern Iraq.

Meanwhile, since the AKP assumed power in Turkey in 2002, bilateral visits with Iran have boomed; Ahmadinejad's trip crowns dozens of visits by high-level officials. Trade has boomed as well, increasing from $1.2 billion in 2002 to $8 billion today. And even though the two countries didn't formalize the deal last week, plans are still going forward for a $3.5-billion Turkish investment in Iranian gas fields -- this at a time when the West is adopting financial sanctions against Iran to cripple Tehran's ability to make a nuclear bomb. If there were any doubts about a Turkish-Iranian rapprochement, they were laid to rest last week: During Ahmadinejad's visit, the two countries agreed to make 2009 an "Iran-Turkey year of culture" -- marked by regular cultural and political programs and exchanges -- to bring the two countries closer.

Ahmadinejad's visit also speaks volumes about the future of Turkish-U.S. ties regarding Iran. According to a recent opinion poll in Turkey, when asked what the country should do in the event of a U.S. attack against Iran, only 4% of respondents said Turkey should support the U.S., while 33% wanted to back Iran and 63% chose neutrality.

As I shared the canopy of the Blue Mosque's divine dome with Ahmadinejad, I could not help but ponder how far Turkish foreign policy has shifted since 2002. Before, Turkey picked allies based on shared values -- democracy, Western identity, secular politics and the principle of open society -- that appeared to reflect the Turkish soul. Iran has not become a pro-Western, secular democracy since 1996, nor have Tehran's mullahs accepted gender equality or the idea of a free society. Yet Ankara has had a change of heart toward Tehran. Years from now, Ahmadinejad's visit to Istanbul will be remembered as the tipping point at which the West lost Turkey, and Turkey lost its soul.

Turkey bows to the dark side (http://www.latimes.com/news/opinion/commentary/la-oe-cagaptay19-2008aug19,0,1494855.story)

Turkey inched closer to ratifying ICC statute during Al-Bashir’s visit
Friday 22 August 2008.

August 20, 2008 (ANKARA) – The Turkish government moved ahead in its plans to ratify the Rome Statute which forms the basis of the International Criminal Court (ICC).

The Turkish daily ‘Today’s Zaman’ reported that the ruling Justice and Development Party (AK Party) on Monday released a long-awaited EU reform package that suggests changes to a number of local laws and ratification of a number of International treaties including the Rome Statute.

The ratification now heads to the Turkish parliament for consideration and a vote before it becomes official.

Ironically the Sudanese president Omer Hassan Al-Bashir started an official visit to Turkey on the same day where he took part in the Turkish-African summit along with other leaders.

This is Al-Bashir’s first visit since the ICC’s prosecutor Luis Moreno-Ocampo announced in mid-July that he requested an arrest warrant for Al-Bashir.

Ocampo filed 10 charges: three counts of genocide, five of crimes against humanity and two of murder. Judges are expected to take months to study the evidence before deciding whether to order Al-Bashir’s arrest.

Even if an arrest warrant was issued during Al-Bashir’s visit, Turkey had no obligation to apprehend the Sudanese head of state since they are not members of The Hague based court.

Turkey has been hesitant for years to join the ICC but the European Union stipulates ratification of the Rome Statute for Ankara to be eligible for its membership. The government has also been under pressure from human rights group to proceed with ICC membership.

Ankara initially wanted incorporation of terrorism crimes into the Statute before it can endorse. Any changes to the Rome Statute must approved by the 108 countries comprising ICC members.

Some Turkish parliamentarians from the opposition indicated that they will vote against the ratification saying they want terrorism to be part of the ICC jurisdiction.

The ruling Justice and Development Party controls 341 of the 550 available seats in the legislative body. According to the Turkish electoral system, this translates to 46.6% voting power.

The ICC is steadily gaining international recognition as world countries ratify the Rome Statute. Three states ratified the treaty this year; Madagascar, Suriname and Cooks Islands. Major countries such as the US, China, Russia and India have yet to sign the convention.

If an arrest warrant is issued for Al-Bashir he is vulnerable to be arrested in any ICC member country he travels to.

The Sudanese president hinted in an interview with Reuters that he may only visit countries which are not members of the ICC.

“We are not concerned about traveling, ourselves, we have good relations with a number of countries that do not have relations with the ICC” he said.

Sudan has not ratified the Rome Statute, but the UNSC triggered the provisions under the Statute that enables it to refer situations in non-State parties to the world court if it deems that it is a threat to international peace and security

Turkey inched closer to ratifying ICC statute during Al-Bashir’s visit (http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?page=imprimable&id_article=28366)

US warship sails through straits, Russia suspicious
Aug 23, 2008

In a move likely to heat up tensions between the United States and Russia over a conflict in the troubled Caucasus, a US Navy warship sailed through the Turkish Straits yesterday to take relief supplies to Georgia.

The guided missile destroyer USS McFaul passed through the Dardanelles and the Bosporus, and two other ships, the US Coast Guard cutter Dallas and the command ship USS Mount Whitney, will follow in the coming days. "The USS McFaul is under way now, having taken on humanitarian supplies for the people of Georgia," a spokes-man for the US Navy in Europe said.

The two Navy ships and a US Coast Guard cutter are carrying relief supplies, including bottled water, blankets, hygiene kits, baby food, milk and nappies, said Cdr. Scott Miller, spokesman for the US 6th Fleet. He stated that the McFaul and the Dallas were expected to arrive in Georgia next week and the Mount Whitney around the end of the month.

A Polish ship also passed through the Turkish Straits yesterday, but Turkish diplomatic sources emphasized that the ship was headed to the Black Sea to take part in a NATO task mission that sources said had been planned months ago.

Russia, which occupied part of Georgia in response to a Georgian military offensive in the pro-Russia breakaway region of South Ossetia early this month, expressed concern over the US Navy ships' trip to the Black Sea. "From the Russian point of view … the usefulness of this operation is extremely dubious," Anatoly Nogovitsyn, deputy chief of the Russian military's General Staff was quoted by Reuters as saying when asked about the US Navy mission to deliver aid to Georgia.

The ships are part of a humanitarian mission, but observers say it is also a message of military deterrence by the United States to Russia. The US military had already begun delivering relief supplies by air a week ago.

Turkey, which has close ties with neighboring Georgia and is a key strategic ally of Washington, has been walking a delicate diplomatic line during the Caucasus conflict in order not to antagonize Russia. Ankara, which has developed its trade ties with Russia and relies on imports from Russia to meet its natural gas needs, fears it could be caught in the middle of an undesired, Cold War-type confrontation between Russia and the United States if tensions rise further. Hoping for peaceful resolution of the crisis, Ankara has been floating a proposal for a regional cooperation platform that is planned to include Turkey, Russia, Georgia, Azerbaijan and Armenia.

The US request to send warships to the Black Sea put Ankara in a difficult position as it insists all passages through the Turkish Straits, the only sea outlet to the Black Sea, must be in compliance with the international Montreux Convention. The US had initially planned to send two Navy hospital ships that each weigh 70,000 tons, far above the maximum weight allowed in the Montreux Convention. Ankara refused, prompting further negotiations with the United States to find a compromise. The three ships now headed to Georgia all meet the standards set by the Montreux Convention.

There were concerns that the US could force Turkey to agree to changes to the convention to be able to give a military message to Russia by sending the two hospital ships. But Matt Bryza, deputy assistant secretary of state for European and Eurasian affairs, said earlier this week that the US had no intention of seeking revisions to the Montreux Convention.

CHP questions policy

The rising tensions have increased opposition pressure on the government at home. The main opposition Republican People's Party (CHP), which views government efforts to create a Caucasus regional platform to resolve regional crises with suspicion, yesterday formally requested a statement on whether the US ships transiting the Turkish Straits met Montreux standards.

The CHP's Onur Öymen issued a formal inquiry to Foreign Minister Ali Babacan over whether the United States complied with Montreux requirements that all warship transits have to be declared to Turkish authorities eight days in advance.

Foreign Ministry officials state that Ankara has not been forced to compromise, as the three ships meet the requirements stipulated by the Montreux Convention. "As has been the case for around seven decades, we haven't made any exception to the 1936 Montreux Convention, and we will never make such an exception. Turkey is extremely sensitive on this issue," an official told Today's Zaman on Thursday.

The Foreign Ministry yesterday issued a written statement in which it reiterated that foreign-flagged military ships are passing through the Turkish Straits to the Black Sea in line with the notices conveyed to Turkish authorities and in compliance with the Montreux Convention.

"In this context, four ships belonging to the Standing NATO Maritime Group 1 -- Spain (SPS Almirante Don Juan de Borbon), Germany (FGS Luebeck), Poland (ORP General Kazimierz Pulaski) and US (USS Taylor) -- will visit the ports of Constanza in Romania and Varna in Bulgaria in the west Black Sea and our country's İstanbul ports for training and as part of NATO's planned activities approved in October 2007. Excluding this, passages of other foreign military ships including those of the US are being done in line with the Montreux Convention," the statement said.

US warship sails through straits, Russia suspicious (http://www.todayszaman.com/tz-web/detaylar.do?load=detay&link=151006&bolum=102)

US-Soviet Tensions Give Iran, Syria Room to Maneuver
Thursday, August 21, 2008
By Julie Stahl

Jerusalem (CNSNews.com) – Israeli Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni called on Russia Wednesday to get behind tougher sanctions aimed at halting Iran’s nuclear pursuit, but the mounting tensions between Washington and Moscow could stymie that process, an expert here said.

Russia and the international community understand that the world cannot afford a nuclear Iran. “But there is a gap between this understanding and the translation [into action] especially when it comes to United Nations Security Council resolutions,” Livni told foreign journalists in Jerusalem on Thursday.

“Time is of the essence,” Livni said. “[It is] my belief that Russia has the best understanding about the situation about its own interest. I do hope that not only Russia but other states join not only the understanding of the need to stop Iran but join more effective sanctions in order to do so,” she said.

The West believes Iran is using its civilian nuclear program as a cover for developing an atomic bomb. Iran denies the charges and has so far defied international sanctions intended to persuade Tehran to stop enriching uranium – a process which can make nuclear fuel or be used in the making of a bomb.

The international community is threatening a fourth round of sanctions, but without the support of Russia (and China) there won’t be another Security Council resolution.

Russian expert Dr. Baruch Gurgurevitz from the University of Haifa said that might not be so easy to obtain from Russia considering the friction with the U.S.

“If there is no tension between Russia and the West or the U.S. and Russia, there is a better chance to put pressure on Iran,” Gurgurevitz told CNSNews.com.

“As tension increases [between the U.S. and Russia], Iran will benefit from it,” Gurgurevitz said.

Russia’s Foreign Ministry threatened on Wednesday to go beyond diplomacy in its reaction to the signing of a U.S. deal with Poland to place part of a missile defense system there, the Associated Press reported.

That followed a warning from a Russian general last week, who said Poland risked a Russian attack, possibly with nuclear weapons, for agreeing to host the American system.

Russia also reportedly said Wednesday that it planned to cut all military ties with NATO.

Tensions between the former Cold War foes have been mounting since fighting erupted between Russia and Georgia – which wants to join NATO – two weeks ago over the disputed area of South Ossetia.

Russia, which is helping Iran complete its $800 million nuclear reactor, has also sold major weapons systems to the radical Islamic republic including tanks, air-to-air missiles and combat aircraft.

Iran claimed last year that Russia would equip it with one of the most advanced anti-aircraft missile systems, the S-300, though Moscow denies it has sold the system to Tehran. Iran already possesses Russia’s TOR-M1 surface-to-air missiles.

Gurgurevitz said the mounting tensions could make Russia less likely to be flexible in pressuring Iran, he said. Russia is more likely to use the issue of Iran as part of its carrot and stick tactic, he said.

Gurgurevitz said Iranian ally Syria also hopes to exploit current East-West tensions.

Syrian President Bashar Assad was in Russia Thursday as part of a two-day trip, which he said Wednesday would focus on talks about military cooperation and weapons purchases.

Assad is trying to capitalize on the tensions and get Russia to base anti-aircraft missiles there. Assad knows that the tensions give him more room to maneuver, Gurgurevitz said.

Assad reportedly has offered to host Russian short-range missile batteries as a response to the U.S. missile defense deal with Poland.

Livni said such a move would destabilize the region. Syria, she noted, is trying to de-stabilize Lebanon by smuggling and transferring weapons to Hezbollah, and Syria has connections with Hamas and other terror groups. According to Livni, Russia has no interest in destabilizing the region.

There has also been some concern in Israel that Israeli training of Georgian troops and sale of equipment to Georgia – something that has angered Russia – might prompt Moscow to retaliate by selling more advanced weapons to Syria.

But apparently in a move to allay those fears, Russian President Dmitry Medvedev telephoned Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert on Wednesday. Olmert’s office said the two leaders talked about regional and bilateral issues as well as advancing relations, reports said.

US-Soviet Tensions Give Iran, Syria Room to Maneuver (http://www.cnsnews.com/public/content/article.aspx?RsrcID=34424)
~~~~~~~

The Soviet war machine is moving right along the prophetic track...... My own opinion is, I just can't see how it all could slow down, now...

Yes I've decided to call Russia the Soviet Union again, after reading the news today..

Russia can undermine U.S. interests in many arenas

By Peter Baker
Published: August 21, 2008

The president of Syria spent two days in Russia this week with a shopping list of sophisticated weapons he wanted to buy. The visit may prove a harbinger of things to come.

If the conflict in Georgia ushers in a sustained period of renewed animosity between Russia and the West, Washington fears that a newly emboldened but estranged Moscow could use its influence, money, energy resources, United Nations Security Council veto and, yes, its arms industry to undermine American interests around the world.

Although Russia has long supplied arms to Syria, it has held back until now on providing the next generation of ballistic missiles. But President Bashar al-Assad of Syria made it clear that he was hoping to capitalize on rising tensions between Moscow and the West when he rushed to the resort city of Sochi to meet with his Russian counterpart, Dmitri Medvedev.

The list of ways a more hostile Russia could cause problems for the United States extends far beyond Syria and the mountains of Georgia. In addition to increased arms sales to other anti-American states like Iran and Venezuela, policymakers and specialists here envision a freeze in cooperation on counterterrorism and nuclear nonproliferation, manipulation of oil and natural gas supplies, pressure against U.S. military bases in Central Asia and the collapse of efforts to extend Cold War-era arms-control treaties.

"It's Iran, it's the UN," said Angela Stent, who served as the top Russia officer at the U.S. government's National Intelligence Council until 2006 and now directs Russian studies at Georgetown University. "It's all the counterterrorism and counternarcotics programs, Syria, Venezuela, Hamas - there are any number of issues over which they can be less cooperative than they've been. And of course, energy."

Michael McFaul, a Stanford University professor and the chief Russia adviser for Senator Barack Obama, the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee, said, "The potential is big because at the end of the day, they are the hegemon in that region and we are not and that's a fact." McFaul said Russia appeared intent on trying to "disrupt the international order" and had the capacity to succeed.

Russia may yet hold back from some of the more disruptive options, depending on how both sides act in the next few weeks and months. Many in Washington hope Russia will restrain itself out of its own self-interest; Moscow, for instance, does not want Iran to have nuclear weapons either, and so has incentive to continue working with the United States to press Tehran to give up its uranium enrichment program.

Moscow may also be checked by the desire of its economic elite to remain on the path to integration with the rest of the world. The main Russian stock index fell sharply in recent days, costing investors - many of whom have close ties to Prime Minister Vladimir Putin's circle - $11 billion.

Still, although the confrontation over Georgia had been building for years, the outbreak of violence demonstrated just how abruptly the international scene can change. Now Russia is the top focus in Washington, and some veteran diplomats fret about the situation spiraling out of control.

"Outrage is not a policy," said Strobe Talbott, who was deputy secretary of state under President Bill Clinton and is now president of the Brookings Institution. "Worry is not a policy. Indignation is not a policy."

"Even though outrage, worry and indignation are all appropriate in this situation, they shouldn't be mistaken for policy and they shouldn't be mistaken for strategy," he added.

For Washington, there are limited options for applying pressure. Senator John McCain, the presumptive Republican presidential nominee, wants to throw Russia out of the Group of 8 major powers. Such an action would effectively admit the failure of 17 years of bipartisan policy aimed at incorporating Russia into the international order.

Yet Washington's menu of options pales by comparison with Moscow's. Masha Lipman, an analyst at the Carnegie Moscow Center, said, "There's a lot more" that the United States needs from Russia than the other way around, citing efforts to secure old Soviet nuclear arms, support the war effort in Afghanistan and force Iran and North Korea to give up nuclear programs. "Hence Russia has all the leverage," she said.

In forecasting Russia's potential for causing headaches, most specialists look first to Ukraine, which wants to join NATO. The nightmare scenario circulating in recent days is an attempt by Moscow to claim the strategic Crimean peninsula to secure access to the Black Sea. Ukrainian lawmakers are investigating reports that Russia has been granting passports en masse to ethnic Russians living in Crimea, a tactic Moscow used in the Georgian breakaway republics of South Ossetia and Abkhazia to justify intervention to protect its citizens.

Arms sales, as Assad's visit underscored, represent another way Russia could create problems. Israeli and Western governments have already been alarmed about reports that the first elements of a Russian-built S-300 antiaircraft missile system are being delivered to Iran, which could use them to shoot down any U.S. or Israeli planes that seek to bomb nuclear facilities, should that ever be attempted.

Russia could make it more difficult for the United States and NATO to support forces in Afghanistan. Russia agreed in April to allow NATO to send nonlethal supplies overland through its territory en route to Afghanistan, a transit right it could easily revoke. Russia could also turn up pressure on Kyrgyzstan to evict U.S. forces that support operations in Afghanistan and could block any large-scale return to Uzbekistan, which kicked the Americans out in 2005.

"The argument would be: Why help NATO?" said Celeste Wallander, a Russia scholar at Georgetown's School of Foreign Service.

Even beyond the dispute over Iran, Russia could obstruct the United States at the UN Security Council on a range of other issues. Just last month, Russia vetoed sanctions against Zimbabwe's government, a move seen as a slap at Washington.

"If Russia's feeling churlish, they can pretty much bring to a grinding halt any kind of coercive actions, like economic sanctions or anything else," said Peter Feaver, a former strategic adviser at the National Security Council.

Russia could also accelerate its withdrawal from arms-control structures. It has already suspended the Conventional Forces in Europe treaty to protest U.S. missile defense plans and threatened to pull out of the Intermediate Nuclear Forces treaty. Renewed tension could unravel a recently signed civilian nuclear cooperation agreement and doom negotiations to extend soon-to-expire strategic arms control verification programs.

"Ironically, since the collapse of the Soviet Union, there's always been the concern about Russia becoming a spoiler," said Stent, the Georgetown professor, "and now we could see the realization of that."

Russia can undermine U.S. interests in many arenas (http://www.iht.com/articles/2008/08/21/europe/policy.php)

Arab Sentiment Backs Soviets Over Georgia
Tuesday, August 19, 2008
By Patrick Goodenough, International Editor

Russia’s military intervention in Georgia in the face of Western protests is being viewed by some in the Arab world as evidence of American weakness, with media commentators voicing barely-disguised delight at what they see as a defeat for Washington.

At the same time, some voices are cautioning the Islamic Middle East not to throw its lot behind Moscow as many of the region’s leading countries did at times during the Cold War.

Russia on Aug. 8 sent troops and tanks across its southern border after Georgia’s pro-Western government mounted an offensive against separatists in the Russian-backed breakaway region of South Ossetia. Russia, saying it was forced to act to protect its citizens and peacekeepers in South Ossetia, drove Georgian forces from the rebel province and then pressed into other parts of Georgian territory.

A European Union-brokered ceasefire is now in operation and Moscow on Monday claimed to have begun pulling back.

Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice was Tuesday attending an emergency meeting of NATO’s North Atlantic Council, called at Washington’s request to discuss a response to the crisis. En route to Brussels, she said NATO must reaffirm membership process bids for both Georgian and fellow former Soviet republic Ukraine, despite strong Russian objections.

“We are also going to send the message that we are not going to allow Russia to draw a new line at those states that are not yet integrated into the transatlantic structures like Georgia and Ukraine,” she said. NATO was determined to deny the Russians the strategic objectives of weakening the Georgian state and undermine its democracy.

In the opinion of some in the Arab world, however, the crisis was a clear victory for Moscow – and some thought this was a good thing.

A Gulf News editor, Abdul-Hadi Al-Timimi, wrote in an op-ed Sunday that Russia’s willingness to use its military might to reassert its influence in the former Soviet space was “long overdue,” and “most urgently needed at a time when the U.S. and its allies are targeting two of the last few Russian allies in the Middle East: Iran and Syria."

The United Arab Emirates’ daily Khaleej Times in an editorial predicted that there would now be changes in the international order.

“America will remain the biggest economy and military, yet its diplomatic [authority] will continually trim till it finally rests at a more acceptable level to the rest of the world,” it said.

“From its handling of Iran to its desire to play a more effective role in the Middle East and world affairs, it is apparent that the new Russia is not prepared to be thrown around like a lightweight any more as it was after the end of Soviet Union,” the same paper opined Monday.

“The return of Russia portends a shift in the balance of political forces in the Middle East that for the moment at least appears to weaken the American and pro-Western side of the balance and to strengthen the Iranian side,” said Cairo’s Middle East Times in an editorial.

It noted that Russia supplies Iran with weapons, is completing its new nuclear reactor and “ensuring the U.N. sanctions are not too burdensome."

Some commentators saw an opportunity to criticize the U.S.

Saudi Arabia’s Arab Times in a Saturday editorial sought to put the blame for the crisis on what it called the “inept belligerence” of the Bush administration, and said the Western Europe was being drawn into a U.S. face-off with Moscow.

Qatar’s Gulf Times, meanwhile, scoffed at the American and British criticism of Russia’s actions in Georgia.

“One would think, in light of the Iraq debacle and the continuing disgrace of detention without charge, that these two world ‘powers’ would have been among the last to plant their flags in the shifting soil of moral high ground."

‘Back to the worst years of the Cold War'

Pundits also wondered what the Russia-Georgia war meant for small, U.S.-backed countries.

An editorial in Dubai’s Gulf News said the conflict “has shown that Washington will not always come to the rescue of its allies in their time of need.”

The son of Libyan strongman Muammar Gaddafi, Seif al-Islam Gaddafi, said the crisis had sent a warning to other countries that rely on America and think that “closeness to the United States will allow them to do anything they want."

“It’s not so,” he said an interview with the Russian daily, Kommersant.

Gaddafi took issue with Georgian President Mikhail Saakashvili’s charge that parts of Georgia were “occupied” by Russia.

“How can you talk about occupation, when you are occupiers yourself? The Georgians along with the Americans occupy Iraq! And now they are trying to portray themselves as fighters for freedom and democracy.”

As the crisis unfolded, the U.S. flew 2,000 Georgian troops back home from Iraq, where they had constituted the third-largest foreign contingent in the U.S.-led coalition.

Gaddafi said the Arab world welcomed their pullout.

“All Arabs are mad at Georgia because it sent its troops to Iraq and took part in the occupation of that Arab land,” he said. “If it weren’t for Russia, Georgian forces would still be in Iraq."

Amid the pro-Russia sentiment, a warning came from the Middle East Times, which in an editorial Monday urged Arabs to think with their heads rather than their hearts.

“There is a potential danger of countries in the Arab world to take Russia’s re-entry into the global political scene as a major power broker as a signal to openly side with Moscow,” it said.

Rallying to the Russians would take Arabs “back to the worst years of the Cold War where the Arab world stagnated economically, forever indebted to the Soviets for arms and munitions that were always a step or two behind those of the West.”

Writing in the independent Arab daily Al Hayat, columnist and political analyst Raghida Dergham cautioned the Islamic world against a rush to embrace the Russian use of force.

“Today, and merely to spite the U.S., many Muslims forget that [Russian prime minister and former president] Vladimir Putin has repeatedly taken violent military stances against Muslims in Chechnya and elsewhere, and celebrate his violence to compensate for their constant failure,” she wrote.

During the Cold War, the Soviet Union had close ties at times with a number of countries, including Egypt, Syria, Iraq, South Yemen, Algeria and Libya. It was also a key ally of the terrorist Palestine Liberation Organization.

Arab Sentiment Backs Soviets Over Georgia (http://www.cnsnews.com/public/Content/Article.aspx?rsrcid=34267)

Russia rolls into Georgia, rolls back the clock

By DOUGLAS BIRCH, Associated Press Writer Sat Aug 23, 1:15 PM ET

MOSCOW - This spring, Russian tanks and missiles rolled across the cobblestones of Red Square as soldiers in olive green uniforms goose-stepped and a military band played the revived Soviet anthem. It was the first full-scale military display at the annual Victory Day parade in almost two decades.

On Aug. 8, the tanks rolled again, but this time it wasn't just a parade. As hundreds of Russian armored vehicles rumbled toward the cavernous Roki tunnel into Georgia, the show ended and the shooting started.

The move stunned many in the U.S. and Europe. But it was the result, at least in part, of factors the West has never really understood: Russia's wounded pride over its loss of the Soviet empire, its fear of NATO expansion along its borders and its anger over being treated as a backwater in Europe rather than a global power.

Russia says it was forced to respond to Georgia's ferocious assault on the capital of separatist South Ossetia, which likely killed scores of civilians and a number of Russian peacekeepers. But Russia's role in the Caucasus is much more than that of a neutral peacekeeping force, and its intervention goes much deeper than the latest clashes.

Georgia, meanwhile, blames Russia for provoking the crisis by supporting separatist territories on its soil. The sight of Russian tanks rolling down its highways was also a searing reminder that Moscow dominated Georgia for almost two centuries, and that Soviet tanks entered the capital of Tbilisi in 1989 and soldiers beat 20 protesters to death with shovels.

For much of the world, the motives behind the conflict seem murky; after all, the Cold War is over and the Soviet Union is dead. Russia, it seemed, was becoming a modern nation, part of the international community.

What is hard for the world to see, though, is that there are two Russias. The first is a rapidly developing modern country, a major energy exporter with expanding ties to the global economy, a nation with a sense of pride and purpose after years of struggle.

Symbols of this new Russia are everywhere, from the gleaming skyscrapers springing up along the Moscow River, to shopping centers being built in Siberia, to Russian tourists crowding beaches in Turkey and shops in Manhattan, to the reed-thin women in designer dresses who saunter down the capital's Tverskaya Street, a coiffed miniature dog tucked under one arm.

But behind this growing European facade is an older and less familiar Russia, one that is much harder for foreigners to grasp. This Russia is a 1,000-year-old civilization that is distrustful of political change, wary of the West and jealous of its historic role as master of its corner of the world.

This is a country that throughout its history has felt threatened by independent nations on its borders, and now feels under siege.

The feeling of being surrounded is an uncomfortably familiar one for Russia, which has no natural borders and has been invaded by everyone from the Mongols to the Swedes and the French. To protect itself physically, Russia continually sought to extend its borders and prop up neutral buffer states at the periphery of its sphere of influence. To protect its unique culture, which is neither European nor Asian but both, it adopted a kind of psychological isolation from the rest of the world.

Russia's intervention in Georgia draws on a long history of empire that goes back not just to the Communist era, but much further, to its Czarist past. The symbols of this past survive in the names of many Russian provincial cities — Vladivostok, which means "Conqueror of the East," and Vladikavkaz, "Conqueror of the Caucasus" — in the canals and mansions of St. Petersburg, dredged from a swamp on orders of Peter the Great; and of course in the red-brick walls of the Kremlin itself.

Unlike many Western powers, Russia seems unable or unwilling to turn its back on its cruel but glorious legacy of empire. As Vladimir Sorokin, the Russian writer, told a German magazine last year: "We still live in the country that was built by Ivan the Terrible."

Andre Mironov, one of the last of the Gulag prisoners and a longtime human rights advocate, said Russia's decision to send troops into Georgian-controlled areas showed that the habits of empire survive under Prime Minister Vladimir Putin, a former KGB officer.

"People like Putin, they have no other idea of how to rule," Mironov said. "What Russia does now, it cannot be analyzed with modern political logic. It is obsolete. If modern countries like the U.S. declare war, they have more or less rational reasons, even if they are mistaken."

Autocratic states like Russia, he said, are not constrained by logic. "You shouldn't expect logic from a KGB lieutenant colonel anyway, you shouldn't expect modern political thinking."

But Mironov's views are in the minority here.

A survey by the respected Levada Analytical Center showed more than half — 53 percent — said Russia was right to send troops into South Ossetia to fight Georgia, as opposed to 36 percent who opposed the idea.

"Russia is a big and capable country, which will not let the West dictate the conditions," Igor Saryov, 33, of Moscow, said matter-of-factly as he waited on a sidewalk outside a Moscow metro station. "In any situation, Russia is going to act as it sees fit."

Standing next to him was Alexei, 33, with slicked-back black hair, drinking a beer at around 10:45 a.m. He refused to give his last name.

Far from committing aggression in Georgia, he said, Russia was resisting it. "Russia has never been conquered, not in 1,000 years, though many tried," he said. "It's because it's in our genes not to allow anyone to dictate the conditions, how to act, where to act."

The roots of Russia's latest intervention in Georgia can be traced at least back to 1991, when Tbilisi declared its independence and an impoverished, divided Soviet Union finally crumbled.

After centuries of being feared by its neighbors and presiding over a patchwork of European and Asian cultures, Russians were suddenly expected to build a modest nation state and live within its shrunken borders. While many of Moscow's satellite states in Europe rebounded quickly, Russia, the epicenter of the failed Soviet experiment, never recovered from the memory of humiliation, poverty and dependence of the immediate post-Soviet period.

Like the U.S., Russia is a patchwork of ethnic groups and cultures. America's diverse population has traditionally rallied behind ideals of individual freedom. Russians, meanwhile, have been united in their pride in Moscow's imperial scope and power.

When the empire crumbled, Russia suddenly found itself without a reason to exist.

cont'd next post

A few days after his re-election in 1996, President Boris N. Yeltsin asked an advisory panel to come up with "a new national idea to unite all Russians." The panel gave up in frustration.

As Europe advanced, so did NATO, the Western military alliance originally formed to thwart Soviet expansion — stoking Russia's fears of being surrounded and eventually overwhelmed.

Analysts also say Europe has tended to treat Russia as a second-class European nation. "They've realized that if Russia merely plays the role the West has made for it, we would quickly become a country that protects the pipeline sending gas and oil from Western Siberia," said Sergey Mikheyev, an analyst at Center for Political Technologies.

After Russia defaulted on its debt in 1998, its economy started to grow, aided by cheap rubles and fueled by rising gas and oil prices.

Russia's gross domestic product rose 58 percent from 2000 to 2006, and perhaps a fifth of Russians belong to an emerging middle class that didn't exist in Russia before 1991. Russia now earns $1.2 billion a day from gas and oil exports, according to UralSib Capital, a Moscow financial corporation. Its gold and currency reserves are worth more than $581 billion, compared to just $10 billion a decade ago.

Suddenly, there was the sense that the West needed Russia more than Russia needed the West.

The driving force behind Russia's political transformation was Putin, who rose under late President Boris Yeltsin to become prime minister in 1999. In an essay released just days before Yeltsin's resignation, Putin wrote: "It is too early to bury Russia as a great power."

Whether by accident or design, the political system Putin built came to bear an uncanny resemblance to that of the old Czarist state. Today, as in the Czarist epoch, Russia's institutions — its courts, media and businesses — enjoy a measure of independence they could only dream of in Soviet times. But they still are ultimately answerable to the government, especially if they challenge the state.

So what happens now?

While politicians sometimes talk of a new Cold War, none seems on the horizon. The Kremlin seems to have abandoned efforts to impose a Utopian system on the world by force and keep its citizens captive behind an Iron Curtain.

But in striking at Georgia, Russia has asserted its right to intervene in the affairs of countries along its borders — especially the former Soviet republics, which Russians call their "near abroad." The invasion also expanded the role of Russia's military, which until now mainly kept the peace domestically, fighting Islamic or ethnic separatists in the restive North Caucasus.

This policy seems to guarantee more confrontations with Europe and the U.S., which has supported several former Soviet republics like Georgia that are now seeking to establish stable, Western-style governments.

The Kremlin in particular is outraged by U.S. plans to install a missile defense system in Poland and the former Czech republic. Washington insists the system is designed to counter the threat from Iran or North Korea, but Russia says it is aimed at blunting Russia's nuclear capability.

Shortly after Russia's invasion of Georgia, Poland agreed to host the anti-missile system. A top Russian general immediately suggested that Poland had exposed itself to the risk of a Russian nuclear strike.

Viktor Kremenyuk, the deputy director of the U.S.A. and Canada Institute in Moscow, said in some ways tensions between Russia and the West are higher today than they were toward the end of the Soviet period because Europe's borders have moved closer.

"What makes the situation even more difficult is that all these small nations which existed between Russia and the heart of Europe, they have rushed to join Europe," he said.

It is difficult to say whether Russia will again resort to military action, or where it might choose to strike. One possibility is Ukraine, which like Georgia is a country with strong historical and cultural ties with Moscow, now led by a Western-oriented president seeking NATO membership.

Ukraine President Viktor Yushchenko, a pro-Western former central banker, was elected in 2004 in a bitter contest against a Kremlin-backed candidate. He has accused Moscow of refusing to cooperate in an investigation of his mysterious poisoning during that campaign.

The Kremlin has cultivated close relations with most of the states of Central Asia, whose vast energy reserves it has helped tap. But even there officials have warily strengthened ties with China and, in some cases, the U.S. in recent years as a counterbalance to Moscow's influence.

Russia's leadership appears to believe it can pursue a more aggressive foreign policy without wrecking its relations with the rest of the world. But some more optimistic experts say the pressures of the global economy will eventually push Russia toward Western-style reforms and closer integration with Europe and the West.

If not, this may not be the last time Russian tanks roll beyond its borders.

Russia rolls into Georgia, rolls back the clock (http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080823/ap_on_re_eu/russia_wounded_pride;_ylt=AtakGIlUsMbYL93qlmU657t0bBAF)

Enemies united in pain as Russia trumpets victory
Jon Swain, South Ossetia
August 24, 2008

The memories of the short, vicious war Georgia and Russia fought over the tiny breakaway province of South Ossetia keep flooding back to haunt Ana Robertovna: the screams, the noise, the smoke and, most unbearable of all, the terrified pleading eyes of her grandchildren hiding in the basement as barrage after barrage of Georgian Grad missiles slammed into the houses above.

“After the bombardment we heard the rumble of the tanks and heard on the radio that the Georgians had entered the town,” said Robertovna.

The Georgian soldiers were firing into the cellars and ordering everyone to come outside.

“My granddaughter Sasha was screaming loudest of all. She is only 10. I had to clap my hand over her mouth to stop the Georgians hearing her. They were killing people in the street as they came out of the cellars. We stayed hidden but we knew we could not hide for ever. If the Russians troops hadn’t intervened we would be dead.”

Her face ashen with sorrow, Robertovna, an ethnic Ossetian, was walking with other survivors of the August 7 attack through the rubble of the shattered buildings, her world torn apart. All around were battered blocks of houses in the old Jewish quarter of Tskhinvali, the small South Ossetian capital at the heart of the conflict. There was blood on the wall next to the stairs leading up from a cellar, marking the spot where an old man had collapsed and died from his wounds.

With her was a man bent with sorrow. He said he and his wife had spent 15 years trying to have a child. At the end of July his wife gave birth to a girl. Ten days later, on the night of August 7, she was dead, her tiny body perforated by shrapnel from the fierce bombardment.

As she walked, her feet crunching through broken glass, Robertovna vowed that after the death and destruction of the military strike there could never be reconciliation.

She cared nothing for the heavy-handed way Russian forces had responded to Georgia’s surprise attack by intervening with troops from inside the Russian border, forcing the Georgians out of South Ossetia and driving their own tanks deep inside Georgia to positions within 25 miles of Tbilisi, the capital, where they sat for nearly a fortnight until they withdrew the bulk of their forces on Friday.

Equally angry and bitter was Gulnara Militaura, but as an ethnic Georgian victim she had a different perspective on the conflict that tore Georgia apart. Georgia was the victim of the Russian bear. Until a few days ago she was living in the peaceful village of Tkvaivi, a few miles south of the breakaway statelet on the road linking Tskhinvali to the important Georgian crossroads city of Gori, famous as Stalin’s birthplace, just outside the disputed enclave.

She had once lived in Tskhinvali, like Robertovna, but along with many Georgians in Tskhinvali her family fled earlier fighting that broke out in the aftermath of the collapse of the Soviet Union in the 1990s and settled in Tkvaivi. It was there that the violence finally caught up with them as a wave of looting and ethnic cleansing engulfed the region after Georgia’s initial offensive sparked the war.

Although several houses had been looted and set on fire she and her family were unwilling to flee, but on August 12 a group of armed men barged into her kitchen. They shot dead her husband and brother and stole a tractor and car. She recognised them as Ossetians.

Over the following days Militaura, a language teacher in her seventies, tried to stop their bodies from decomposing by spraying them with vinegar.

Eventually she was rescued by her son, who managed to join a Georgian government convoy that Russian forces allowed into the area. She had eaten nothing for days and was faint with hunger. Together they buried the bodies next to a rose bush in the garden and fled to Tbilisi. Despite the Russian withdrawal on Friday she was still too frightened yesterday to contemplate returning home. “It will take time to heal her sorrow,” said a friend.

The looting has often been carried out behind the backs of Russian soldiers. In another incident an armed Ossetian gang raided the church in the Russian-occupied city of Gori, which Stalin, himself half-Osse-tian and half-Georgian, had once frequented. They stole a priest’s car.

The withdrawal of the majority of Russian forces was greeted with relief in Georgia yesterday, but there was alarm that Russian troops were clearly establishing a long-term presence in the breakaway region, building peacekeeping outposts in a so-called “security zone” around South Ossetia’s border with Georgia that takes them to within a few miles of Gori.

David Barakadze, the president of parliament, accused Russia of making a mockery of the withdrawal pledge by Dmit-ry Medvedev, the Russian president. He suggested the columns of tanks rolling out of Gori and other areas of Georgia did not constitute a genuine pull-out. “It is not a deal,” he said, a view shared by western states, including Britain, which said Russia had still not complied with the ceasefire agreement negotiated by Nicolas Sarkozy, the French president.

Georgia and Russia have been bitter enemies since the collapse of the Soviet Union 17 years ago, their relations bedevilled by complicated border disputes in South Ossetia and Abkhazia. Mikhail Saakashvili, Georgia’s charismatic president, puts a positive spin on the war, but it has been a humanitarian and economic disaster for the little country and made Georgia’s chances of recovering South Ossetia from the Russian grip even more remote.

Each has its own version of the violent events. For Saakashvili, a Columbia University-trained lawyer, Russia bullied, needled and then invaded its small neighbour, burning villages and butchering civilians.

The attack showed the ugly face of a resurgent Russia that could not forgive this country of just 5m people for betting its future on a western-style democracy and wanting to join Nato. He said Georgians were engaged in a national struggle against Russian domination and he had authorised the Georgian attack only after he was told that Russian tanks were crossing into South Ossetia and Georgian military positions began to take mortar fire from Russian peacekeepers and Ossetian separatists in Tskhinvali.

In the Russian version, naturally accepted by the breakaway Ossetians, Russia intervened after Georgia attacked the enclave, killing hundreds of civilians and 15 Russian peacekeepers. Its crushing military victory over Georgia was justified and has moved them much closer to independence and union with Russia.

The Georgian strike was the breaking point, said Eduard Kokoity, the Ossetian separatist leader, who added that the war was the result of Georgian “fascism” that had flourished with the support of the West.

Certainly that was the prevailing mood at the pro-Russian concert on Thursday night in the ruins of Tskhinvali led by Valery Gergiev, the conductor of the London Symphony Orchestra, an Ossetian and a supporter of Vladimir Putin, the Russian prime minister.

Robertovna wept quietly as she listened. There could be no more potent symbol of the widening gulf separating Ossetians from Georgians than the concert. It would have been particularly apparent to a group of Georgian prisoners huddled in an underground courtyard a few hundred yards away. They could hear the orchestra triumphantly playing Shostakovich’s Leningrad Symphony and sense the nationalistic fervour of the audience. Nobody knows when they will be released.

On Monday the Russian parliament is due to discuss recognising independence not just for Ossetia but also for Abkhazia, the other Georgian enclave that broke away after fierce fighting in the 1990s, and which is now under tacit Russian control.

A senior Russian spokesman hinted that Putin would visit Tskhinvali soon. To emphasise its status, Russia has given passports to the population making them legally citizens of Russia who are certain to vote for union with Russia in a future referendum.

Whatever gloss Saakashvili puts on the war, the price tag of Georgia’s misadventure is considerable. The fighting killed hundreds, not the thousands both sides have claimed, but the sight of Russian tanks in Georgian villages less than 30 miles from Tbilisi has dealt a crushing blow to its fledgling tourist industry and left a big question mark over investment prospects.

Saakashvili insists he retains massive public support, but his last patriotic rally in Tbilisi’s main square attracted only 15,000 people.

Despite the flag-waving and singing of patriotic songs it was said to have been stage-man-aged, with many of its participants on the government pay-roll. Nobody is in a hurry to take up arms again.

PUTIN’S MAESTRO
Valery Gergiev, the conductor of Thursday night’s concert amid the ruins of Tskhinvali, is principal conductor of the London Symphony Orchestra.

A fiery 55-year-old, he was born in Moscow but grew up in Vladikavkaz, the North Ossetia capital. He is a friend of Vladimir Putin, the Russian prime minister, whose daughter is his godchild.

Enemies united in pain as Russia trumpets victory (http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/europe/article4597023.ece)

Connecting the Dots -- Russian attack clarifying prophetic world order

by Bill Wilson, KIN Senior Analyst

Some media pundits are saying that Russia is starting Cold War II: but in reality, the escalation of the Georgia conflice by Russia and the subsequent actions by NATO and the United States have the makings of a prophetic march toward fulfilling ancient Biblical prophecies about the end times.

Ezekiel 38 and 39 speak of an attack by Russia on Israel where Russia is assisted by the Islamic nations of Iran, Libya and most of Northern Africa. The prophet Ezekiel speaks of the attack in Ezekiel 38:9 (NKJV):

"Thou shalt ascend and come like a storm, thou shalt be like a cloud to cover the land, thou, and all thy bands, and many people with thee."

The cunning Prime Minister of Russia, Vladimir Putin, has chosen a very strategic time to invade Georgia and probe the world with his bayonet to see where he hits bone. The United States, which under its last two presidents has become the worlds police department, is in its most vulnerable strategic position.

The U.S. is bogged down in a war against Islam, a bona-fide Russian ally. Moreover, the U.S. war is being conducted in Iraq, the heart of Babylon, a crown in the former Persian Empire - a place many consider the throne of satan.

Satan's strongholds are so powerful in this area that the Biblical prophet Daniel wrote that Gabriel, the angel of the Lord, had to battle against the "kings" (spritual principalities) of Persia there for 21 days.

Putin's probe is a calculated risk in that he seems to believe that the U.S. and NATO will not lift a finger to help Georgia militarily because of being occupies by the Islamic front. Instead, the U.S. has opted to place missile systems in the former Soviet states of Poland and the Czech Republic. This has drawn threats from Moscow that Poland risks being attacked by Russia, even with nuclear weapons.

Secretary of State Condoleeza Rice told reporters that NATO 'is not going to permit a new line to be drawn in Europe.' So far, Putin's risk seems to be rewarded. He has found that he can advance on another nation with words and diplomacy as the only resistance to his assault.

Taking inventory, Russia has chosen a military option in an area that no nation dare engage because it is the most defenseless of the former Soviet Union. Because Islam has the forces of the West occupied in satan's heartland, there is little more than rhetoric to stand in Russia's way.

The U.S. and its allies are spread so thin in a long war of attrition that they haven't the will to take on a Russian advance.

If Putin and his Islamic allies thrust the bayonet beyond the rhetoric, the world may quickly begin to see the true nature of the Russian-Islamic alliance manifesting itself in the Persian Gulf, where the power of oil, world dominance, and prophecy will meet at the unwalled cities of Israel.

Russian General Criticizes US Black Sea Presence
Russian general: US naval presence in Black Sea will increase tensions after Georgia conflict
By DAVID RISING Associated Press Writer
ABOARD THE U.S.S. MCFAUL August 25, 2008 (AP)

ABOARD THE U.S.S. MCFAUL

A Russian general suggested that U.S. ships in the Black Sea loaded with humanitarian aid would worsen tensions already driven to a post-Cold War high by a short but intense war between Russia and Georgia.

The U.S. Navy destroyer U.S.S. McFaul reached Georgia's Black Sea port of Batumi on Sunday, bringing baby food, bottled water and a message of support for an embattled ally.

The deputy chief of Russia's general staff suggested the arrival of the McFaul and other U.S. and NATO ships would increase tensions: Russia shares the sea with NATO members Turkey, Romania and Bulgaria as well as Georgia and Ukraine, whose pro-Western presidents are leading drives for NATO membership.

"I don't think such a buildup will foster the stabilization of the atmosphere in the region," Russia's ITAR-Tass news agency quoted Col. Gen. Anatoly Nogovitsyn as saying Saturday.

Georgian Defense Minister David Kezerashvili told The Associated Press on the aft missile deck of the McFaul after greeting U.S. Navy officers that the population of Georgia would feel "more safe" from the "Russian aggression" as a result of the ship's arrival.

"They will feel safe not because the destroyer is here but because they will feel they are not alone facing the Russian aggression," he said.

Local children offered the Americans wine and flowers.

In Europe, French President Nicolas Sarkozy said he would convene a special meeting of European Union leaders over the crisis as Russia ignored Western accusations it has fallen short of its commitment to withdraw forces from its smaller neighbor.

The war erupted Aug. 7 as Georgia launched a massive artillery barrage targeting the Russian-backed separatist province of South Ossetia. Russian forces repelled the offensive and drove deep into Georgia, taking crucial positions across the small former Soviet republic.

Russia pulled the bulk of its troops and tanks out Friday under a cease-fire brokered by Sarkozy, but built up its forces in and around South Ossetia and Abkhazia, another separatist region. They also left other military posts at locations inside Georgia proper.

The U.S. and EU say both those moves violated Russia's commitments.

NATO halted the operations of its vehicle for interaction with Russia, demanding a fuller withdrawal, and Moscow responded by freezing military contacts with the alliance — its Cold War foe whose eastward expansion has angered a resurgent Russia.

The guided missile cruiser USS McFaul, carrying about 55 tons of humanitarian aid, is the first of three American ships scheduled to arrive this week. It brought baby food, diapers, bottled water, milk and hygiene products.

Sailors in a chain on deck passed the supplies up from the hold to be lifted by a crane for transport to shore.

The commander of the U.S. task force carrying aid to Georgia by ship, Navy Capt. John Moore, downplayed the significance of a destroyer bringing aid.

"We really are here on a humanitarian mission," he said.

The McFaul, an Arleigh Burke-class destroyer, is outfitted with an array of weaponry, including Tomahawk cruise missiles, which can carry either conventional or nuclear warheads, and a sophisticated radar system. For security reasons the Navy does not say whether ships are carrying nuclear weapons, but they usually do not.

A U.S. official said the American ship anchored in Batumi, Georgia's main oil port on the Black Sea, because of concerns about damage to the Georgian port of Poti — not because Poti is closer to Russian forces in Abkhazia and Georgia proper.

Russian troops still hold positions near Poti, and Georgian port officials say radar, Coast Guard ships and other port facilities were extensively damaged by Russian forces. AP journalists there have reported on Russians looting the area.

An AP television cameraman and his Georgian driver were treated roughly and briefly detained Sunday by Russian troops outside Poti as he shot video of Russian positions.

Adding to the tension, South Ossetian officials claimed that Georgia was building up military forces in an area along the edge of the battered region and had fired sporadically at villages overnight.

As Moscow's military moved to redraw de facto borders on the ground, Russia's parliament on Monday was planning to consider renewed requests from South Ossetia and Abkhazia for recognition of their claims of independence from Georgia.

Georgia claims Russia wants to annex the regions.

Russian General Criticizes US Black Sea Presence (http://www.abcnews.go.com/print?id=5645971)

Are they going to refuse humanitarian aid for the people they claim to be so concerned about protecting??

The communist/socialist mind has a rather warped concept of "humanitarian aid" to begin with. Add to that the fact that the vessel coming to deliver aid just so happens to be armed to the teeth and prepared to defend itself, and the Russian forces can't help but get their hackles up.

But we know through Bible study, Georgia will become apart of the Gog invasion of Israel.

Russia's move into Georgia, and her threats to other countries in Eastern Europe.

This is, of course, a very significant development in terms of Bible prophecy being fulfilled. However, those who are expecting Russia to invade Israel as a next step, and for Ezekiel chapter 38 to wind up the whole story now, just aren't reading the prophecy carefully enough. Russia must build up her confederacy and her military might first. What we are seeing at present is the beginning of a new phase in Russia's determination to "re-establish control over independent states in its backyard, regardless of who their allies are.

What's unfolding in Georgia today is an emblematic battle in a much larger conflict between Russia and the democratic West that has been simmering since the supposed end of the Cold War, and especially since Putin became president in 1999... other conflicts--not necessarily military--will likely follow in places such as Ukraine, eastern Europe, and the Baltic states. Moscow has emerged from this altercation victorious on all fronts. It has shown that it has the will to crush--all too easily--a small neighbour, and it has sent a collective shudder through the other countries along its borders, all in the face of hollow denunciations from the outside world--and not much more."

Other countries that Russia has in its cross-wires are the Ukraine, the Czech Republic and Poland. In fact, the whole of eastern Europe lies under the shadow of Russia's threatening posture. Russia's vast reserves of oil and gas give it substantial leverage, including in western Europe. Indeed, destabilizing Georgia has only increased Russia's energy clout. Several oil and gas pipelines traverse Georgia, and links are planned to Europe, bypassing Russia. But if Georgia is too fragile to safely transport oil and gas, Europe will have little choice other than continuing its reliance on Russia.

Jewish historian Josephus, whose work has survived for almost 2,000 years wrote as follows........

Magog founded those that from him were named Magogites, but who are by the Greeks called Scythians--Antiquities Bk. 1, chapter 6

From this information we can be reasonably sure that the Biblical Magog is the territory known in ancient history as Scythia. And it is the Greek historian Herodotus (writing in about B.C. 470; that is about 100 years after Ezekiel) that tells us that the boundaries of Scythia were the rivers Danube and Don, the Black Sea and the Baltic. That means that Scythia--our Biblical Magog--occupied land which we today would term eastern Europe, including part of Germany, Poland, Belarus, Romania, Moldova, the Ukraine and the Baltic countries.

Now this is almost exactly the Land that Rosh (Russia) controlled following World War 2. We called it the Communist block. If you take Ezekiel 38:2 on its own, then that was the Russian sphere of control for just over 40 years.

Ezekiel 38, and put all the pieces together, we surely see what to expect next. When the military "coming forth" takes place, we see what follows in verses 5 and 6.

"Persia, Ethiopia, and Libya with them; all of them with shield and helmet: Gomer, and all his bands; the house of Togarmah of the north quarters, and all his bands: and many people with thee."

This is the alliance that Russia will form. It will include the whole of Europe, many Islamic countries.... including Turkey. We face difficult times. These things promise us no picnic. Yet while Russia gathers her company the Lord will come. He will judge his people. We must be prepared for that. We must prepare ourselves by studying Scripture.

Hizbullah-Iran-Syria-Lebanon Axis Tightens
25 Av 5768, August 26, '08
by Tzvi Ben Gedalyahu

(IsraelNN.com) Hizbullah leader Hassan Nasrallah warned Sunday his terrorist army is much stronger than before the Second Lebanon War and can destroy Israel. He issued the threat at a Boy Scout ceremony as a response to Prime Minister Ehud Olmert's remark last week that "if Lebanon becomes a Hizbullah state, then we won't have any restrictions" in striking the country.

The Prime Minister claimed that during the last war, Israel did not use all of its firepower because the enemy was Hizbullah and not its host country Lebanon.

Lebanese Prime Minister Fuad Siniora has sent United Nations Secretary-General Ban Ki-Moon a letter protesting Olmert's remarks. Siniora, at a meeting with his Cabinet, accused Israel of "once again… threatening to launch a new attack on Lebanon, forgetting that the [Israeli] occupation was the core of the problem for Lebanon and the region."

The flurry of threats and warnings came two days after a report in the Italian newspaper Corriere Della Sera that three Hizbullah leaders visited Russia in July to clinch a deal involving the purchase of anti-tank missiles and air-defense systems. Israel disclosed evidence during the Second Lebanon War that Hizbullah used advanced Russian anti-tank missiles smuggled from Syria, in violation of previous international agreements.

Nasrallah said, in a speech televised by the Hizbullah-backed Al Manar satellite network, that his arsenal of weapons is so great that "the Zionists will think not one thousand times but tens of thousands of times before they attack Lebanon."

The prospect of an Israeli attack on Iran's growing nuclear threat also played a hand in Hizbullah's latest threats. Mohammed Raad, the head of the terrorist party's political bloc in the Lebanese government, warned, "The first shot fired from the Zionist entity toward Iran will be met by a response of 11,000 rockets in the direction of the Zionist entity. This is what military leaders in the Islamic Republic [Iran] have confirmed."

Hizbullah has become a stronger political force in Lebanon since the end of the war two summers ago, winning enough representation in the Cabinet to veto any major decisions.

Syria, which aided Hizbullah in the Second Lebanon War, last week established diplomatic relations with Lebanon for the first time in history, providing Syrian President Bashar Assad with a stronger political base in Beirut's affairs after having withdrawn its military from Lebanon before the 2006 war.

Syria has dominated Lebanese affairs for 30 years, and the West has joined Lebanese opponents of Syrian interference in Lebanese affairs in accusing Damascus of being behind the the 2005 assassination of anti-Syrian former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri.

The new Lebanese government that gives Hizbullah more power assures Syria that it still can influence affairs in Lebanon, with the naming of Michel Suleiman as president. He is close to Syria and was the Lebanese army chief for 10 years during the Syrian army's control of the country.

"It's a win-win situation," said Patrick Seale, a British expert on Syria told the Associated Press. "The Lebanese get diplomatic recognition and the Syrians get recognition of vital interests in Lebanon."

Hizbullah-Iran-Syria-Lebanon Axis Tightens (http://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/127320)

Quote from: DreamWeaver on August 25, 2008, 10:46:05 PM

I love when you lay it out like this. Please keep doing so.

Syria, Iran warm to Russia as US tensions grow

By SAM F. GHATTAS, Associated Press Writer Tue Aug 26, 1:27 PM ET

BEIRUT, Lebanon - Syria's President Bashar Assad has publicly stepped up his outreach to old ally Russia in recent days, seeking aid to build up Syrian military forces and offering Moscow help in return — in an apparent effort to exploit a new Russian-American rift.

U.S. officials have noticed: Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice warned Mideast leaders this week that they should worry about Syria's efforts to gain more sophisticated weapons.

Syria's long-term aim, however, remains unclear, in part because Assad also continues to pursue peace efforts with Israel — a key U.S. and European goal — even as he makes overtures to Russia that are sure to antagonize the West. Syria has a long history of apparently contradictory diplomatic moves as it maneuvers to find options and balance its interests.

Yet the latest Syrian moves feed directly into larger Western fears that the Russian-American standoff — prompted by Russia's invasion of Georgia — could lead Russia to provide more military and diplomatic aid to a host of countries and militant groups the United States sees as troublesome.

"The Russian move into Georgia has begun a tectonic shift in the (Mideast) region," said Joshua Landis, a Syria expert in the United States. "It has emboldened Syria, Hezbollah and Iran to push harder against Israel and the U.S."

Some military officials in Iran have, like the Syrians, openly supported Russian actions in Georgia, although Iran's Foreign Ministry called the clashes merely a result of miscalculations by "powers" and called for dialogue.

Some Iranian media have gone further, asserting Russia is now less likely to back U.S.-led efforts to pressure Iran to curb its nuclear program.

The Russian ambassador to Iran, Alexander Sadovnikov, told the official IRNA news agency this weekend that Moscow won't support a new round of U.N. Security Council sanctions against Iran. But that position did not appear to be a direct result of the new Russia-U.S. tensions, because Russia often calls publicly for dialogue.

"Russia is never after a new (sanctions) resolution. We hope constant contacts between Iran and the IAEA (the U.N. nuclear agency) will lead to a realistic solution, guaranteeing that Iran is not after nuclear weapons technology," IRNA quoted the ambassador as saying.

Lebanon's Hezbollah is another worry for the West and for Israel.

The Iranian- and Syrian-backed militants have long hoped for weapons systems and greater diplomatic backing from Russia, Landis said, although there is no evidence Russia has shown more warmth toward Hezbollah lately.

Hezbollah does not disclose its weapons sources, except to say they are bought on the international market. But it receives money and much hardware from Iran through Syria. Israel complained to Russia that Hezbollah used Russian anti-tank missiles in its war with Israel in 2006. Russia says its sales comply with international rules.

For now, Syria is the most public example of Mideast fallout from the Georgian fight.

"Syria's bad negotiating position (with Israel) is leading it to look for more weapons and to try to grow more teeth before returning to the table with Israel," Landis said.

Both Iran and Syria have long-standing ties with Russia, leading some to play down the recent moves as having little significance. Russia has sold Syria weapons systems in the past, including the advanced surface-to-air Strelets system, and its warships already had been calling on Syria's northern port of Tartous. Many of Iran's weapons systems also have long come from Russian suppliers.

Yet Assad clearly aimed for deeper ties during last week's Moscow visit.

He asked Russia for weapons, and Moscow's foreign minister, Sergey Lavrov, said his government was prepared to sell Syria arms with "defensive character" that would not upset the Mideast's strategic balance — a reference to Israel, which holds military superiority over its Arab neighbors.

Syria reportedly is interested in air defense missile systems and aircraft. Notably, Assad also told the Russian business daily Kommersant that Syria was "ready to cooperate with Russia in any way that can strengthen its security," including discussing deploying Iskander missile defense systems on Syrian territory to strengthen Russia's security.

Assad also said Syria was ready "in principle" to help Moscow respond to the planned U.S. missile defense shield in Europe, although the Russians have not asked for such help, the newspaper said.

As that news grabbed headlines in the Mideast, Syria's government swiftly denied that Assad had made such an offer to host Russian missiles on Syrian land, or even discussed it with Russia.

The swift denial apparently came because Syria does not want to overly antagonize the United States. Assad has long wanted to regain the strategic Golan Heights from Israel, and his only chance of that is through a peace deal with Israel. He has long sought more robust U.S. involvement in the negotiations with Israel, maintaining progress is unlikely without it.

Syria is holding indirect low-level peace negotiations with Israel through Turkey, a U.S. ally.

Syria, Iran warm to Russia as US tensions grow (http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080826/ap_on_re_mi_ea/mideast_russia_fallout;_ylt=ApstMbEiOLk8Qun7X4j8txULewgF)

Israel and Iran: the Armageddon scenario

It is becoming increasingly likely that Israel will attack Iran's nuclear facilities in the next few months. Indeed, over the past few weeks, signs of an impending strike have been widely reported, with the Israeli government itself fuelling much of the speculation.

While much of the recent media commentary has revolved around the question of whether Israel has the military capability to undertake such a difficult mission, this emphasis misses the larger point, which is that an Israeli strike may set off a chain reaction that could prove difficult to control.

Assuming that the Israeli Air Force attacks -- regardless of whether or not the raid is successful -- the Iranian response will be the key to determining how serious the crisis becomes. Thus, how Tehran retaliates will result in either a tense -- but ultimately limited -- crisis, one where threats will be issued and warnings made but military action will be measured and somewhat predictable, or conversely, in a rapidly escalating crisis that might threaten the stability of the entire region, and may result in the total devastation of some states.

The former scenario is easier to envisage. Under it, after the Israeli strike, Iran's leaders would issue numerous threats, but in the end Tehran would limit its military activities to sponsorship of terrorism through its regional proxies (i.e. Hamas and Hezbollah) and the stepping up of attacks against American forces in Iraq. In addition, Iran would likely attempt to close the Strait of Hormuz to international shipping, which could cause panic on world oil markets.

While such actions would no doubt cause considerable casualties and damages (any attempt to close the strait will likely push oil above $200 a barrel), it is unlikely that they would cause the crisis to deteriorate further. Thus, after some time, acts of terrorism against Israel would gradually diminish, and while Iran has the ability to seriously threaten American forces in Iraq, it is unlikely to do so, as any such attempt would set the stage for a larger confrontation with Washington, a development not in Tehran's interest.

As a result, within a few months, the region would settle into its "normal" pattern -- albeit one that will remain very unsettled for some time, and one where the U.S. will be widely vilified (as it will be blamed in the Arab world for assisting Israel, regardless of whether or not it does).

The second scenario, however, is much more unpredictable, and involves several uncertainties. According to this model, Iran would retaliate against Israel using ballistic missiles -- a possibility, it should be noted, that it has explicitly warned of on several occasions. While Israel has a missile defence system, its capabilities have never been tested in war (it was of no use against the short-range rockets that Hezbollah fired in 2006), and it is unlikely that it would successfully intercept all the missiles Iran would launch.

The first uncertainty involves the targets Iran strikes. Would it attack strategic targets like petroleum facilities or air bases?

n this case there would be significant physical damage but limited Israeli casualties. Or would it strike major population centres (such as Tel Aviv or Haifa) or the country's nuclear facility, in which case, casualties would be extensive?

In the former scenario, Israel's retaliatory strike can be expected to be somewhat similar, as the air force would mount a raid against comparable Iranian targets. In the event of the latter, though, Israel's retaliation can be expected to be heavy, perhaps raising the spectre of a counter-attack utilizing some form of WMD (the higher the number of Israeli casualties, the greater the likelihood of a non-conventional response). In this scenario, both countries would suffer significant casualties and damages, and their respective recoveries would be long and difficult.

A second uncertainty involves the type of warhead Iran would arm its missiles with. Would they be conventionally armed, in which case the number of Israeli casualties would depend on the targets hit (as discussed above)? Or would they be armed with a chemical or biological agent, in which case Israeli casualties could be massive? Once again, Israel's retaliation would likely follow the Iranian lead, with the latter scenario resulting in a major nuclear counter-strike.

Given these dire scenarios, it is clear that the initial use of force by Israel may trigger a catastrophic confrontation. Thus, the preferred solution remains a diplomatic one, although given Iran's intransigence and unwillingness to give up its nuclear program, it seems unlikely that the negotiations that have been under way for years (and which recently resumed with U.S. involvement) will suddenly succeed.

In sum, an Israeli strike against Iran now appears almost inevitable. The effects of this strike are impossible to predict, but it is not difficult to imagine a scenario where the results could be devastating. In the long term, the entire regime that has been created to contain nuclear proliferation, including both treaties (the NPT) and institutions (the IAEA), will need to be fundamentally transformed and strengthened to ensure that the present situation cannot occur again. Unfortunately, though, that prospect offers little comfort at present.

Brothers and Sisters,

There is little doubt in my mind that the way is being prepared for the Tribulation Period. Many of us keep saying soon, and it will be soon, but how long is "soon"? Only GOD knows! However, we can read GOD'S WORD and try to understand some things HE communicated to us for a definite reason. As an example, many times are spoken of in relation to THE SECOND COMING OF CHRIST. We should all know that the SECOND COMING OF CHRIST is at the end of the 7 year Tribulation Period. To limit confusion while studying, the last 3 1/2 years of the Tribulation Period is called "THE GREAT TRIBULATION" or "THE TIME OF JACOB'S TROUBLE". The last half of the Tribulation Period will be much worse than the first half.

Matthew 24:21-37 For then shall be great tribulation, such as was not since the beginning of the world to this time, no, nor ever shall be. 22 And except those days should be shortened, there should no flesh be saved: but for the elect's sake those days shall be shortened. 23 Then if any man shall say unto you, Lo, here is Christ, or there; believe it not. 24 For there shall arise false Christs, and false prophets, and shall show great signs and wonders; insomuch that, if it were possible, they shall deceive the very elect. 25 Behold, I have told you before. 26 Wherefore if they shall say unto you, Behold, he is in the desert; go not forth: behold, he is in the secret chambers; believe it not. 27 For as the lightning cometh out of the east, and shineth even unto the west; so shall also the coming of the Son of man be. 28 For wheresoever the carcass is, there will the eagles be gathered together. 29 Immediately after the tribulation of those days shall the sun be darkened, and the moon shall not give her light, and the stars shall fall from heaven, and the powers of the heavens shall be shaken: 30 And then shall appear the sign of the Son of man in heaven: and then shall all the tribes of the earth mourn, and they shall see the Son of man coming in the clouds of heaven with power and great glory. 31 And he shall send his angels with a great sound of a trumpet, and they shall gather together his elect from the four winds, from one end of heaven to the other. 32 Now learn a parable of the fig tree; When his branch is yet tender, and putteth forth leaves, ye know that summer is nigh: 33 So likewise ye, when ye shall see all these things, know that it is near, even at the doors. 34 Verily I say unto you, This generation shall not pass, till all these things be fulfilled. 35 Heaven and earth shall pass away, but my words shall not pass away. 36 But of that day and hour knoweth no man, no, not the angels of heaven, but my Father only. 37 But as the days of Noah were, so shall also the coming of the Son of man be.

GOD tells us much in the above portion of Scripture, even about time and circumstances. Don't take one word for granted if you want to do a Bible Study on this portion of Scripture. Also know that the study will take you all over the Bible. There is a description of Israel given and a notice given about a particular generation of Israel in Verse 34. How much longer will it be before the SECOND COMING OF CHRIST? NOT LONG!

Love In Christ,
Tom

Favorite Bible Quotes 387 - Psalms 121:2 My help cometh from the LORD,
which made heaven and earth.

Israel's decision not to let Iran go nuclear
Aug. 29, 2008
JPost.com Staff , THE JERUSALEM POST

Israel will not allow Iran to attain nuclear capability and if time begins to run out, Jerusalem will not hesitate to take whatever means necessary to prevent Iran from achieving its nuclear goals, the government has recently decided in a special discussion.

According to the Israeli daily Ma'ariv, whether the United States and Western countries succeed in thwarting the Islamic Republic's nuclear ambitions diplomatically, through sanctions, or whether a US strike on Iran is eventually decided upon, Jerusalem has begun preparing for a separate, independent military strike.

So far, Israel has not received American authorization to use US-controlled Iraqi airspace, nor has the defense establishment been successful in securing the purchase of advanced US-made warplanes which could facilitate an Israeli strike.

The Americans have offered Israel permission to use a global early warning radar system, implying that the US is pushing Israel to settle for defensive measures only.

Because of Israel's lack of strategic depth, Jerusalem has consistently warned in recent years that it will not settle for a 'wait and see' approach, merely retaliating to an attack, but will rather use preemption to prevent any risk of being hit in the first place.

Ephraim Sneh a veteran Labor MK who has recently left the party, has reportedly sent a document to both US presidential candidates, John McCain and Barack Obama. The eight-point document states that "there is no government in Jerusalem that would ever reconcile itself to a nuclear Iran. When it is clear Iran is on the verge of acquiring nuclear weapons, an Israeli military strike to prevent this will be seriously considered."

According to Ma'ariv, Sneh offered the two candidates the "sane, cheap and the only option that does not necessitate bloodshed." To prevent Iran's nuclear aspirations, Sneh wrote, "real" sanctions applied by the US and Europe were necessary. A total embargo in spare parts for the oil industry and a total boycott of Iranian banks would promptly put an end to the regime, which is already pressured by a sloping economy and would be toppled by the Iranian people if they have outside assistance, he said.

The window of opportunity Sneh suggests is a year and a half to two years, until 2010.

Sneh also visited Switzerland and Austria last week in an attempt to lobby them against the Iranian threat. Both countries have announced massive long-term investments in Iranian gas and oil fields for the next decade.

"Talk of the Jewish Holocaust and Israel's security doesn't impress these guys," Sneh said wryly.

Hearing his hosts speak of their future investments, Sneh replied quietly "it's a shame, because Ido will light all this up." He was referring to Maj. Gen. Ido Nehushtan, the recently appointed IAF commander and the man most likely to be the one to orchestrate Israel's attack on Iran's nuclear facilities, should this become a necessity.

"Investing in Iran in 2008," Sneh told his Austrian hosts, "is like investing in the Krupp steelworks in 1938, it's a high risk investment." The Austrians, according to Sneh, turned pale.

In related news, a top official said Friday that
Iran had increased the number of operating centrifuges at its uranium enrichment plant to 4,000.

Deputy Foreign Minister Ali Reza Sheikh Attar, who visited the Natanz plant last week, said that Iran was preparing to install even more centrifuges, though he did not offer a timeframe.

"Right now, nearly 4,000 centrifuges are operating at Natanz," Attar told the state news agency IRNA. "Currently, 3,000 other centrifuges are being installed."

Meanwhile, the pan-Arabic Al Kuds al Arabi reported Friday that Iran had equipped Hizbullah with longer range missiles than those it possessed before the Second Lebanon War and had also improved the guerrilla group's targeting capabilities.

According to the report, which The Jerusalem Post could not verify independently, Hizbullah was planning a massive rocket onslaught on targets reaching deep into Israel's civilian underbelly in case Israel launches an attack on Iran.

Israel's decision not to let Iran go nuclear (http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?cid=1219913194872&pagename=JPost%2FJPArticle%2FPrinter)

Russia plans to raise navy presence in Syria

'Our Navy presence in the Mediterranean will increase; Russian vessels will be visiting Syria and other friendly ports more frequently,' Russian charge d'affaires tells reporters in Damascus. Syrian diplomat: We do not want to jeopardize ongoing peace talks with Israel

Reuters
08.28.08
Israel News

The Russian navy will make more use of Syrian ports as part of increased military presence in the Mediterranean, a Russian charge d'affaires tells reporters in Damascus

The announcement comes as tensions rise between Moscow and the West over Russia's role in Georgia. Syrian President Bashar Assad backed Russia's recent offensive on Georgia in support of a separatist province during a visit to Russia last week.

"Our Navy presence in the Mediterranean will increase. Russian vessels will be visiting Syria and other friendly ports more frequently," Igor Belyaev, the Russian charge d'affaires, told reporters in the Syrian capital.

"The visits are continuing," he added.

Russia relies on Syria's Tartous port as a main stopping point in the Mediterranean, although ties between the two countries have cooled since the collapse of Communism, when Moscow supplied Syria with billions of dollars worth of arms.

Internet news sites have reported that a Russian naval unit, including the aircraft carrier Admiral Kuznetsov, docked at Tartous earlier this month.

Belyaev would not be drawn on specifics, or whether new military agreements with Syria were reached during Assad's meeting with Russian President Dmitry Medvedev at a Black Sea resort on Thursday.

"The two leaders gave their directions to advance ties in the economy, trade and energy fields, as well as military cooperation," he said.

Israeli military superiority

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said last week Russia was prepared to sell Syria more arms as long as they do not disturb the "regional balance of power."

Lavrov was referring to the position of Israel, which has a superior military and is widely believed to possess nuclear weapons.

Syria, which is technically at war with the Jewish state, has embarked on a drive to upgrade its military in recent years. The Interfax news agency quoted a Russian diplomat as saying that Syria and Russia were working on deals involving Damascus buying anti-aircraft and anti-tank systems.

The Syrian government has denied reports in Russian media that Assad had said he was ready to host advanced Russian Iskander missiles, which would be able to hit Israeli territory. Israel made it clear it opposes sale of such weapons to Syria.

Diplomats in the Syrian capital said Russia would not easily sell Syria any weapons that could seriously challenge Israel's military superiority.

"It remains to be seen how much the Russians would come through for Syria. Damascus also does not want to jeopardize its ongoing peace talks with Israel," one of the diplomats said.

Israeli warplanes raided a target in eastern Syria in September. The two countries have since embarked on indirect peace talks.

The United States, Israel's chief ally, said the target was a nuclear complex under construction with the help of North Korea. Syria denied the accusation and said it had no secret nuclear facilities.

Russia plans to raise navy presence in Syria (http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-3588926,00.html)

Jordan reaches out to militant Hamas

By JAMAL HALABY, Associated Press Writer Wed Aug 27, 3:41 PM ET

AMMAN, Jordan - In an about-face, Jordan is reaching out to the Hamas militant group amid fears that a collapse of Mideast peacemaking would bring an influx of refugees. But the U.S. ally must walk a delicate line to avoid angering its American and Israeli friends.

Hamas is outlawed in Jordan, which has accused the group in the past of trying to destabilize the country. But Jordanian intelligence chief Mohammed al-Dahabi held two covert meetings with top Hamas leaders this month, ending a nearly decade-long banishment of the group.

The talks don't mean Jordan, which signed a 1994 peace deal with Israel, is embracing the militant group or is turning its back on Arab-Israeli negotiations. But the kingdom has clearly decided it's better to rebuild a relationship with Hamas than keep shunning it as an enemy amid doubts over the peace process' future.

"We're at a crossroads and Jordan must protect itself and its national interests," former Jordanian parliament speaker Abdul-Latif Arabiyat said.

Jordan fears that the possible failure of Palestinian-Israeli peace talks backed by the Bush administration, which leaves office early next year, could embolden Hamas in the neighboring West Bank, as well as Muslim extremists in Jordan and across the Mideast. Quiet contacts with Hamas could mollify any fallout for Jordan if that happens.

Also, Jordan is worried a failure of talks will revive Israeli hardliner calls for ejecting West Bank Palestinians to Jordan, or for parts of the West Bank to form a confederation with the kingdom as an alternative to an independent state.

Jordan, which ruled the West Bank from 1950 to 1967, strongly opposes such a move, as do Hamas and other Palestinians. Jordan's worries are demographic: Roughly half of its 5.8 million population are of Palestinian descent, from families that were displaced to the kingdom in two wars with Israel since 1948. Jordan is ruled by an elite drawn from its native, Bedouin-rooted clans.

Another flood of Palestinians could overwhelm Jordan and even spark civil unrest. In 1970, the Palestine Liberation Organization tried to overthrow Jordan's Hashemite monarchy by setting up a Palestinian government. But Jordan fought a bloody war, known as "Black September," as it evicted the PLO from its territory.

Jordan's contacts with Hamas have already irked Israel and Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas, whose U.S.-backed Palestinian Authority controls the West Bank and has been battling to end Hamas' takeover of the Gaza Strip last year.

Abbas sent his interior minister, Abdel Razak Yehiye, to Jordan last week to "find out what the Jordanians are up to and if their contacts with Hamas meant dropping support for the Palestinian Authority," said an Amman-based Palestinian official, insisting on anonymity citing diplomatic sensitivities.

Israeli Embassy spokesman Itai Bardov in Amman called Jordan's contacts with Hamas "unhelpful to the peace process."

"We're against any negotiations with Hamas because we regard it as a terrorist movement," he said. "We should find ways to strengthen the Palestinian Authority instead of legitimizing Hamas, which made an illegal military coup in Gaza."

The U.S. also considers Hamas a terror organization and has refused contact with it. On Tuesday, Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice said after meeting with Palestinian and Israeli leaders that there was hope for a Mideast peace deal, but she offered no reason for optimism beyond the fact that both sides are speaking.

Mindful of its allies' worries, Jordan only reluctantly confirmed its meetings with Hamas, days after they occurred.

State Minister for Information Nasser Judeh said Jordan wanted the meetings to continue, and that the discussions so far had focused only on "pending security issues."

Deputy Hamas leader Moussa Abu Marzouk said the talks, headed by Hamas official Mohammed Nazzal, tackled a wide range of issues, including the plight of Palestinians under Israeli occupation, Jewish settlements in the West Bank and ways to "confront a substitute homeland for the Palestinians in Jordan."

With the meetings, Jordan may be hoping to help mend the Hamas-Abbas rift and boost the peace process, averting any talk of a Jordanian solution to the Palestinian question. It may also be trying to help in mediating a release of Israeli Sgt. Gilad Schalit, captured by Gaza militants more than two years ago. Abu Marzouk said the Jordanian intelligence chief inquired in the meetings about Schalit.

The split between Jordan and Hamas dates back to 1999, when Jordan came under tremendous pressure from the U.S. and Israel because Hamas leaders on its soil were making statements disparaging peace and ties with Israel and America. Jordan ejected Hamas political chief Khaled Mashaal and other top leaders for unspecified "illegal activities," shut down Hamas offices and clamped down on lower-ranking members.

Jordan reaches out to militant Hamas (http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080827/ap_on_re_mi_ea/jordan_hamas;_ylt=AtSS3lFk..Bre7LR65BvenYLewgF)

Will Turkey Abandon NATO?
By ZEYNO BARAN
August 29, 2008

Will Turkey side with the United States, its NATO ally, and let more U.S. military ships into the Black Sea to assist Georgia? Or will it choose Russia?

A Turkish refusal would seriously impair American efforts to support the beleaguered Caucasus republic. Ever since Turkey joined NATO in 1952, it has hoped to never have to make a choice between the alliance and its Russian neighbor to the North. Yet that is precisely the decision before Ankara. If Turkey does not allow the ships through, it will essentially be taking Russia's side.

Whether in government or in the military, Turkish officials have for several years been expressing concern about U.S. intentions to "enter" the Black Sea. Even at the height of the Cold War, the Black Sea remained peaceful due to the fact that Turkey and Russia had clearly defined spheres of influence. But littoral countries Romania and Bulgaria have since joined NATO, and Ukraine and Georgia have drawn closer to the Euro-Atlantic alliance. Ankara has expressed nervousness about a potential Russian reaction.

The Turkish mantra goes something like this: "the U.S. wants to expand NATO into the Black Sea -- and as in Iraq, this will create a mess in our neighborhood, leaving us to deal with the consequences once America eventually pulls out. After all, if Russia is agitated, it won't be the Americans that will have to deal with them."

Nonetheless, Ankara sided with fellow NATO members in telling Georgia and Ukraine that they would be invited to join the alliance -- albeit without any time frame. But now that Russia has waged war in part over this decision, the Turks will have to pick sides. Deputy chief of the Russian general staff Anatoly Nogoivtsyn already warned Turkey that Russia will hold Turkey responsible if the U.S. ships do not leave the Black Sea. Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov will travel to Ankara on Monday to make clear that Russia means it.

Russia is Turkey's largest trading partner, mostly because of Turkey's dependence on Russian gas. More important, the two countries share what some call the post-imperial stress syndrome: that is, an inability to see former provinces as fellow independent states, and ultimately a wish to recreate old agreements on spheres of influence. When Mr. Putin gave a speech in Munich last year challenging the U.S.-led world order, Turks cheered. The Turkish military even posted it on its Web site. President Abdullah Gül recently suggested that "a new world order should emerge."

Turkey joined Russia at the height of its war on Georgia in suggesting a five-party "Caucasus Stability and Cooperation Platform." In other words, they want to keep the U.S. and the EU at arm's length. Both Russia and Turkey consider Georgia's American-educated president, Mikheil Saakashvili, to be crazy enough to unleash the next world war. In that view Turkey is not so far from the positions of France or Germany -- but even these two countries did not suggest that the Georgians sign up to a new regional arrangement co-chaired by Russia while the Kremlin's air force was bombing Georgian cities.

Two other neighbors -- Azerbaijan and Armenia -- are watching the Turkish-Russian partnership with concern. Azeris remember how the Turks -- their ethnic and religious brethren -- left them to be annexed by the Soviets in the 1920s. Armenians already fear their giant neighbor, who they consider to have committed genocide against them. Neither wants to have to rely on Iran (once again) as a counterbalance to Russia. Oh, and of course, Iran had its own sphere-of-influence arrangements with the Soviets as well.

Though Turkey and Iran are historic competitors, Turkey has broken with NATO countries recently by hosting President Mahmoud Ahmedinejad on a working visit. As the rest of NATO was preoccupied with the Russian aggression in Georgia, Turkey legitimized the Iranian leader amidst chants in Istanbul of "death to Israel, death to America."

A few days later, Turkey played host to Sudan's Omar al-Bashir, who is accused of genocide by the rest of NATO -- but not by Russia or Iran, or by the Muslim-majority countries who usually claim to care so much about Muslim lives.

Where is Turkey headed? Turkish officials say they are using their trust-based relations with various sides to act as a mediator between various parties in the region: the U.S. and Iran; Israel and Syria; Pakistan and Afghanistan, etc. It may be so. But as more American ships steam toward the Black Sea, a time for choosing has arrived.

Will Turkey Abandon NATO? (http://online.wsj.com/article/SB121997087258381935.html?mod=googlenews_wsj)

Russia and the New Axis of Evil
By ARTHUR HERMAN
August 29, 2008

With Russian tanks now presiding over the dismemberment of the Republic of Georgia, can a lame-duck Bush administration -- weary from its long drubbing by critics over Iraq and eyeing the exit door -- rise to the challenge Russia has chosen to pose to the Free World?

To understand the nature of this challenge, consider that the distance between Baghdad and Tbilisi is barely 578 miles, less than the distance between New York City and Chicago. Iraq and Georgia, both of which have democratic governments, are sandwiched between Iran and Russia, two of the most authoritarian governments in the world. Russia has been collaborating with Iran to strengthen the latter's nuclear program and its military. It is also steadily arming Venezuelan strongman Hugo Chávez.

Russia's invasion of Georgia came exactly one month after Iran test-fired its Shahab III intermediate ballistic missile in order to intimidate neighbors like Israel and Iraq, and two weeks after Mr. Chávez traveled to Moscow to formalize a "Strategic Alliance" with Prime Minister Vladimir Putin and President Dmitry Medvedev. Meanwhile, Iran's proxies remain the principal threat to peace in Iraq -- while on the other side of the world, evidence mounts of Mr. Chávez's links to the terrorist group FARC, which threatens neighboring Colombia.

Coincidence? Iraq, Georgia and Colombia are battlegrounds in a new kind of international conflict that will define our geopolitical future. This conflict pits the U.S. and the West against an emerging axis of oil-rich dictatorships who are working together to push back against the liberalizing trends of globalization. One of their prime objectives is toppling or undermining neighboring, pro-Western democracies.

The term "axis" has been overused in recent years, and in misleading contexts. But Russia, Iran and Venezuela are acting very much as Japan, Italy and Germany did in the 1930s, when each took advantage of each other's aggressive moves to extend their own regional power at the expense of liberal democracy -- and, as a result, propelling the world to the brink of war.

The chessboard of traditional competitive geopolitics is back with a vengeance. Russia is the principal source for Iran's nuclear weapons program as well as the principal obstacle to international sanctions. Between them, Mr. Putin and Tehran's mullahs clearly aim to control access to every major source of fossil energy from the western end of the Persian Gulf to the Caspian Sea. The third player in this new axis, Venezuela's President Chávez, hopes for an oil and natural gas monopoly over the natural resources of neighbors like pro-Chávez satellites Bolivia and Ecuador.

All three dictatorships are flush with cash thanks to rising oil prices; all three are bent on regional domination. All three openly celebrate a model of government that is authoritarian and monolithic in opposition to Western pluralism, market-oriented economies and representative democracy. All three run economies built on mafia-style crony capitalism. All three denounce U.S. "imperialism," and evidently hope that the 2008 election will help to bolster their geopolitical plans.

And all three see themselves as natural allies. Since 2004, Mr. Chávez has steadily strengthened his strategic and economic ties to Tehran. Last year he joined with Iran's President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad to push OPEC to cut production and boost oil prices. In addition to his Allianz Estrategica with Mr. Putin, Mr. Chávez was the one international leader who publicly praised Russia's invasion of Georgia.

Finally, all three members of this axis see the emergence of pro-American, Western-oriented governments on their borders as mortal threats and are determined to hit back. In Russia's case, this means direct military force against Georgia. Iran has used its terrorist proxies to sow chaos in Iraq, Lebanon and the Palestinian territories. Mr. Chávez wages a proxy war against Colombia through the terrorists of FARC.

What can the U.S. and a new president do? Despite Russia's nuclear arsenal, none of these states poses a military threat comparable to the Cold War Soviet Union, or even the Axis powers in the 1930s. For all their bluff and bluster, Russia, Iran and Venezuela have a relatively tenuous position in the world; for all their oil wealth their economies remain weak and unstable.

A broad strategy of targeted economic sanctions and multilateral diplomacy, backed by U.S. military power -- together with a determined effort to push down oil prices by expanding supply and strengthening the dollar -- can introduce a note of sober realism to the strategy of this new axis, and force them to realize how limited and vulnerable their source of money and power really is.

However, the most important strategy right now is to secure democracy's vital new flanks -- Iraq, Georgia and Colombia. By shoring up and strengthening, rather than abandoning all three governments, the U.S. will send a clear signal that liberty, not tyranny, is the wave of the globalizing future.

Russia and the New Axis of Evil (http://online.wsj.com/article/SB121997069397081905.html?mod=loomia&loomia_si=t0:a16:g2:r1:c0.205962)

Americans Approve Military Strike on Iran if Diplomacy Fails

Published: August 28, 2008

The drums of war are beating louder, amplified by Iran's pursuit of its nuclear agenda and the West and Israel's determination not to let it do so. Continuing rhetoric by Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad about "wiping Israel off the map" does little to help. Meanwhile, the U.S. administration wants to see Tehran's uranium enrichment issue resolved before January 2009, when the next administration is sworn in. The clock is ticking.

As late as Wednesday U.S. Vice President Dick Cheney repeated what President George W. Bush has said numerous times: "All option remain on the table." Meaning, military intervention remains a possibility.

As the U.S. presidential elections heads into the final stretch, rarely has foreign policy occupied such a prominent role in American politics.

Iraq, Afghanistan, Israel and Iran were consistent topics of debate for the candidates and of worry for the voters; as is terrorism and the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction in the Middle East.

Despite the number of growing problems at home -- unemployment, the rising cost of health care, gasoline prices that have more than tripled, a housing crisis brought about by the sub-prime mortgage fiasco -- an unusually high segment of the American electorate remain just as concerned by developments overseas.

A new poll release Thursday finds that 63 percent of U.S. voters are in favor of military action against Iran if diplomacy fails. And 87 percent believe that if Iran were to develop nuclear weapons, it would pose a direct threat to the security of the United States; 85 percent of Democrats and 97 percent of Republicans believe Iran represents a serious threat to them.

However, 62 percent think there is still hope for diplomacy, although 90 percent fear that the Islamic Republic would share its nuclear technology with terrorist organizations.

According to the same poll, 81 percent of respondents are in favor of the international community sharing the burden of trying to stop Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons. And if military intervention became a reality, 55 percent would approve of the United States and its allies carrying out "targeted strikes" against Iran's nuclear facilities.

Another 63 percent think that Israel should target Iran if it fails to listen to abide by the international community's request.

As for the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, 69 percent say the United States should support Israel, while only a meager 6 percent say the U.S. should support the Palestinians.

The bi-partisan poll, conducted by telephone between July 23-27 by Neil Newhouse of Public Opinion Strategies and Stan Greenberg of Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research surveyed 800 U.S. voters.

A total of 91 percent of American voters agree Iran poses a threat to Israel; the numbers jump even higher -- to 96 percent -- when respondents were asked whether a nuclear-armed Iran poses a threat to Israel.

"The nuclear clock is ticking faster than the diplomatic clock and time is running out," said Jennifer Lazlo Mizrahi, president of The Israel Project, who commissioned the poll.

Americans Approve Military Strike on Iran if Diplomacy Fails (http://www.metimes.com/Editorial/2008/08/28/americans_approve_military_strike_on_iran_if_diplomacy_fails/6272/)
~~~~~~~~~

I do believe this is pretty much, a green light to Israel.

EU sanctions would be 'grave mistake,' Russia says

RENATA GOLDIROVA

29.08.2008 @ 09:25 CET

EUOBSERVER / BRUSSELS - As the European Union considers imposing sanctions against Russia over its recognition of independence for Georgia's rebel regions, Moscow has said that any punitive measures would be a "grave mistake," harming the 27-nation bloc as much as Russia itself.

"First of all, I highly doubt that [sanctions] might ever happen, but hypothetically speaking, this would be to the detriment of the European Union as much, if not more, than to Russia," Russia's ambassador to the EU Vladimir Chizhov said on Thursday (28 August).

The comment comes shortly ahead of an emergency EU summit scheduled for 1 September in order to reassess the union's ties with Moscow in the face of its actions in the South Caucasus.

France, the current EU president, has warned that "sanctions are being considered and many other means as well" - words that were quickly denounced by Russia's foreign minister Sergei Lavrov, who said the idea showed the workings of a "sick imagination."

In practice, just a few countries - mainly the UK, Sweden, Poland and three Baltic EU states - are pushing for a tough line against Russia.

Even if achieved, punitive measures could be limited to no more than suspension of visa-free travel talks or postponement of negotiations on a new EU-Russia treaty, currently scheduled for 16 September, EU diplomats said.

"I can only express the wish that European leaders will be able to rise above the emotions of the day and consider seriously and without prejudice the perspectives of strategic partnership with their important partner, the Russian Federation," ambassador Chizhov told journalists in Brussels.

"We need the new agreement as much as the EU does - not less, not more," he concluded.

The French EU presidency itself will not table punitive measures, while Germany - which is heavily reliant on Russian oil and gas - also has little appetite for punishing Moscow.

"We are strongly committed to keeping open channels to Russia. We have to look at who will be hurt by sanctions, what will be the costs and benefits," one senior German official was cited as saying by the Financial Times.

German Socialist MEP Martin Schulz told Financial Times Deutschland: "[Sanctions] would play into the hands of radical elements in Moscow, who want an escalation of the conflict."

An isolated Russia?

Meanwhile, Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin - widely seen as the man driving Kremlin policy - has accused Washington of playing a role in the current conflict in Georgia to benefit one of the US presidential candidates.

"The suspicion arises that someone in the United States especially created this conflict with the aim of making the situation more tense and creating a competitive advantage for one of the candidates fighting for the post of US president," Mr Putin said in a CNN interview on Thursday (28 August).

He explained that US citizens had been present in the area during hostilities, following direct orders from Washington, which also trained and supplied the Georgian army.

The White House dismissed the allegations by describing them as "not rational" and "patently false."

Another round of verbal attacks took place at the United Nations last night (28 August), with Russian ambassador Vitaly Churkin accusing the US of hypocrisy. He cited the US-led invasion of Iraq and Kosovo's unilateral secession from Serbia, backed by major Western powers, as examples.

"I would like to ask the distinguished representative of the United States [about] weapons of mass destruction. Have you found them yet in Iraq or are you still looking for them?" Mr Churkin said, according to Reuters.

So far, no country has followed Russia in recognising South Ossetia and Abkhazia as independent states, although Moscow's Ambassador to the EU, Vladimir Chizhov, said he expected a "number of countries" to do so, with Belarus suggesting it may take the step before the weekend.

Virtual integrity

Mr Chizhov referred to Georgia's territorial integrity as a "virtual concept" rather than reality, even arguing that Russia's moves are justified under the peace plan brokered two weeks ago by French leader Nicolas Sarkozy - a deal seen as too vague and too Russia-friendly.

"Let me refer to the six-point plan of Presidents Medvedev and Sarkozy, which does not include a reference of territorial integrity and it's not a mistake ... it was deliberate I would say," the Russian diplomat said.

But Russia has failed to win backing from its allies within the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, comprising China, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan, whose leaders limited themselves to supporting Russia's "active role in promoting peace" in the post-conflict phase.

EU sanctions would be 'grave mistake,' Russia says (http://euobserver.com/9/26655)

Germany and Russia threaten EU-Ukraine relations

ANDREW RETTMAN

28.08.2008 @ 17:44 CET

EUOBSERVER / BRUSSELS - Germany's close relations with Russia are the main obstacle to signing a major EU-Ukraine treaty at the upcoming EU-Ukraine summit in France, Ukraine diplomats say, warning that failure to seal the deal will signal to Moscow that it can veto EU policy on post-Soviet states.

"There are maybe two or three countries who are strong opposers, strong sceptics," Ukrainian deputy foreign minister Konstantin Yeliseyev said in Brussels on Thursday (28 August), commenting on EU reluctance to state clearly that "the future of Ukraine lies in the European Union" in the preamble to the new treaty.

"In this regard, we count very much on the leadership of Germany, which is the engine of EU integration and a very powerful country, we count very much on their courage," he added, saying EU explanations - such as lack of formal consensus among the 27 states or public enlargement fatigue - are "not sincere."

"Some other countries like Belgium are also opposed. But Berlin is the key," another Ukraine official said, with just 12 days left to go before the summit in Evian, France. "They are telling us the chancellory is talking to the foreign ministry and so forth, but no matter what they say, the real problem is Russia."

Germany and Russia have historically close relations, with former German chancellor Gerhard Schroeder currently working to help build a new Germany-Russia gas pipeline and with the current chancellor, Angela Merkel, opposing EU diplomatic sanctions against Russia despite Russia's actions in Georgia.

The statement on EU enlargement is a deal-breaker for Ukraine, which says that if Germany's preferred wording - that the new treaty "does not prejudge future relations" - is used, it will effectively rule out any Ukraine moves toward EU accession for the next 10 to 15 years, when the pact is due to expire.

Ukraine is also pressing for NATO countries to offer it a Membership Action Plan in December, with Germany also leading opposition at NATO-level to such a move. Mr Yeliseyev warned that lack of a clear political commitment by the West to Ukraine will be seen by Moscow as a green light to expand influence in the east.

"If the [EU-Ukraine] summit is not successful ... it will send encouragement to Russia that it can influence EU policy and EU strategy," he said. "If NATO members don't take this decision, it will show Russia that by using force, they can influence the process of enlargement and obtain a kind of domination of the post-Soviet states."

The deputy minister underlined that Ukraine sees the EU as a guardian of economic and political stability, in contrast to NATO's hard security role. "We consider NATO as a father and the EU as a mother. With a father it's mostly physical protection, security protection. With a mother it is mostly economic protection," he said.

Mr Yeliseyev explained that the Russia-Georgia war has raised security concerns in Ukraine due to the situation in Crimea, where 60 percent of inhabitants are ethnically Russian and where Russia keeps its Black Sea fleet, which was used against Georgia, making Ukraine a "third party to this conflict."

"If Ukrainian security detorirated, it would not be a Georgia scenario, it would be a more dangerous scenario," he said, with the 50 million-strong, former nuclear power currently controlling most of Russia's natural gas exports to the EU.

Germany and Russia threaten EU-Ukraine relations (http://euobserver.com/9/26653)

Muslim factions combine against U.S.
Strategic implications could affect entire Middle East

A new agreement has been signed uniting competing Muslim factions in Lebanon against the United States and its influence, according to a report from Joseph Farah's G2 Bulletin.

The agreement involves the Shiite Hezbollah and some Sunni Salafist groups and is the latest indicator of of Shiites and Sunnis coming together when it is in their respective interests to do so. It is known that Hezbollah and the Sunni terrorist group al-Qaida have had past operational activities in Lebanon, although concern in recent months suggest the two are at odds over influence in the country with Muslims.

The six-point memorandum of understanding was met with initial resistance by some Salafi elements. Indeed, it neither reflects Salafists everywhere, especially in Saudi Arabia, nor does it represent the more fundamentalist Wahhabi Muslim Brotherhood.

However, its signing reflects a strategic effort to unite Shiites and Sunnis that could have regional implications. In addition, it demonstrates an effort by Iran, which backs Hezbollah, to tie more closely with such Sunni groups as Hamas and Islamic Jihad that for years have been funded by Iran.

The agreement:

* Condemns any Islamic group that assaults another.
* Abandons incitement, which creates trouble and will allow the enemies to take advantage of the situation.
* Confronts the American agenda, which creates division.
* Firmly supports Hezbollah and the Salafist movement if any internal or external parties act unfairly.
* Forms a religious committee to discuss any disagreements between the Shiites and the Sunnis.
* Calls for respect for each others' opinions.

The agreement also indicates a possible connection of Hezbollah with the Fatah al-Islam, which has the backing of Syria, a close ally of Iran and Hezbollah supporter. Fatah al-Islam not only is loosely associated with al-Qaida but al-Qaida is derived from Salafism.

Hezbollah reportedly has recruited some 15 Salafist groups in Lebanon to form a Salafist camp allied with Iran and Syria.

However, not all Salafists are pleased with the agreement, reflecting a possible split among them.

One such group is the al-Mustaqbal, or Future Movement, led by Saad al-Hariri, whose most ideological allies are the Salafist forces in Tripoli north of Beirut. Saad al-Hariri is the son of the late former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri who was killed in a February 2005 car bomb attack in Beirut.

In May 2008, Hezbollah took over the al-Mustaqbal offices in Beirut, resulting in a fundamental change in the Lebanese government that increased Hezbollah's cabinet positions and led to a much sought-after veto over government decisions.

However, that settlement, known as the Doha agreement, left unresolved the continued arming of Hezbollah while other elements in Lebanon, particularly the al-Mustaqbal, allegedly had no weapons.

Ambitious Turkey makes first major move for Africa’s heart

By JOHN MAKENI (email the author)
Posted Saturday, August 30 2008 at 17:37

With Africa attracting growing interest among leading and emerging economic powers, Turkey has become the latest country to seek a strategic relationship with the continent.

Mid this month, Turkey hosted the first Turkey-Africa Cooperation Summit, attended by 50 heads of state and governments in Istanbul. Vice-president Kalonzo Musyoka represented Kenya at the three-day summit.

Other economic powers that have similarly sought to engage African countries as a bloc are Europe through the annual EU-Africa Summit, Japan through the Tokyo International Conference on African Development (TICAD), and China.

In his opening remarks at the Ciragan Palace, Kempinski in Istanbul on August 18, Turkey’s President Abdullah Gul cited its long history of contact with Africa from the days of the Ottoman empire.

“Turkey has traditionally maintained good relations with the African continent. The Ottoman empire had contacts with the continent over a vast geography stretching from East and Central Africa to Zanzibar of today’s Tanzania,” said President Gul.

At the Turkish-African Civil Society Organisations Forum two days earlier, Ambassador Murat Bilhan, vice-chairman of the Turkish Asian Centre for Strategic Studies (TASAM), said Turkey contributed to Africa’s struggle for independence.

TASAM hosted the forum which drew 90 civil society organisations from 45 African countries, 85 others from Turkey and representatives from the African Union.

In 1960, Turkey established diplomatic ties with all the newly independent countries in Africa and now it has 12 embassies and over 20 honorary consulates. During the summit President Gul said his country plans to open 15 new embassies.

The change of attitude which has seen Africans increasingly taking their destiny on their own hands has not escaped the attention of Turkey either.

“The founding of the African Union and the New Partnership for Africa’s Development (NEPAD) are encouraging signs of new thinking, which the developed countries should recognise and respond to.

"If we acknowledge Africa’s true nature and rich diversity, we will be in a position to effectively support developments on the continent in collaboration with Africans themselves,” said President Gul.

“Africa and Turkey note with great concern that while some countries have reaped the benefits of globalisation, most African countries remain marginalised within the globalising world economy.”

But if President Gul tried his best to couch his country’s renewed interest in the continent in diplomatic language, it wasn’t lost on delegates attending the civil society forum what Turkey’s real intentions are.

Tom Wheeler, research associate at the South African Institute of International Affairs, noted that Turkey was rapidly developing its industrial economy and its exports and therefore needed the resources Africa can provide. Africa, he said, can be a useful export market for Turkey’s manufacturers.

“The Turks have seen Japan, China, India, the European Union, not to mention the US, becoming more involved in Africa, and as a neighbour of the African continent, they decided that they needed to be there too,” said Wheeler.

Edwin Barasa, the director of programmes at Africa Peace Forum, said Turkey appeared genuine in its quest to do business with Africa.

“Turkey is an emerging economic force having developed the mining, energy and production industry and as such will most likely want to bend the balance of trade to its favour so as to reap maximum benefit,” said Mr Barasa.

Experts also believe Turkey is trying to woo Africa to achieve its ambitions at the UN.

“Undoubtedly, their ambition to win a non-permanent Security Council seat must come into equation. A bloc of 53 votes, if it can get that support, is a quarter of all votes. I am sure competing candidates will also be scurrying around Africa, soliciting support,” said Wheeler.

However, Turkey’s apparent preference for the so-called non-interference policy in its dealings with Africa did not go down well with the civil society people from the continent.

Ambassador Bilhan said while establishing ties with Africa, Turkey wants to steer clear of internal affairs of African countries.

China has been widely criticised by Western governments and human rights groups for adopting a similar policy, although such hostility does not seem to have significantly affected the Asian power’s bilateral relations with many African countries.

Notably, China continues to enjoy oil imports from Sudan despite calls by the international community that that it put pressure the Sudanese government to stop the crisis in Darfur.

Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir was recently indicted by the Internal Criminal Court for war crimes and crimes against humanity.

Some delegates at the civil society forum also felt that the Turkey might not have understood Africa well enough to be able to offer solutions to its problems.

Rinos Simbulo, a civil society activist from Zambia, warned the panel not to indulge in rhetoric, saying that the African problem can be solved right from the grassroots and not in a conference room.

Real problems

Most delegates were of the view that other development partners had failed because they sought to safeguard their own interests instead of understanding the real problems afflicting Africa.

Many Western countries, they said, still believe that aid is a major panacea to the continent’s woes.

Every year, for instance, Britain and the US commit billions of dollars in aid to social programmes in Africa such as HIV/Aids campaigns, rural development and education, with little to show for it.

The structural adjustment programmes (SAPs) of the 1990s implemented by development agencies such as the World Bankwere cited as another example of failed donor policies.

Many African countries have yet to even benefit from the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) signed into law in 2000 to offer incentives to African countries to build free markets.

Still, international relations experts believe Turkey’s strategic location and being closer to the African continent makes it a suitable partner for Africa.

“But as we saw at the forum, they still have a lot to learn about Africa, not least that they should not preach to Africans,” said Mr Wheeler.

Ambitious Turkey makes first major move for Africa’s heart (http://www.nation.co.ke/News/africa/-/1066/465716/-/149g9jvz/-/)

Confirmed: Jerusalem is on negotiating table
After months of denials, Israel admits 'mechanism' for 'dealing with holy city'

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Posted: August 31, 2008
1:35 pm Eastern

© 2008 WorldNetDaily

JERUSALEM – After months of denials the status of Jerusalem is on the table during negotiations, Prime Minister Ehud Olmert's office today confirmed to WND that a mechanism has been created to deal with the issue of the holy city in U.S.-backed Israeli-Palestinian talks aimed at creating a Palestinian state by the end of the year.

"Of all the final status core issues, the issue of Jerusalem is probably the most difficult and unlike some of the other issues, we have yet to start negotiating the future of Jerusalem. Therefore in order to not let the process fall victim to its weakest link, we have the establishment of an agreed upon mechanism that would continue to deal with Jerusalem. That mechanism was created in such a way that it would address the concern of both sides," Mark Regev, Olmert's spokesman, told WND.

Regev would not detail which mechanism had purportedly been created to discuss Jerusalem.

According to senior Israeli and Palestinian diplomatic sources, both sides are already negotiating Jerusalem, with Palestinian officials claiming the talks are in advance stages.

Regev commented amid news media reports here today stating Olmert presented Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas with a plan for international parties to contribute proposals on how both sides should negotiate the status of Jerusalem. Olmert and Abbas met for a round of advanced talks today.

According to Olmert's proposal, a five-year timetable will be set out for completing a settlement on Jerusalem.

Regev would neither confirm nor deny the reports, which state Olmert's plan is for Jerusalem talks to be held under an international umbrella, where governments and other interested parties, including the Vatican, will be able to contribute their views.

Israel's Haaretz newspaper reported the proposed Jerusalem negotiations will be held directly between Israel and the Palestinians, and international parties will provide suggestions but would not be able to impose their views on a solution.

Haaretz reported Olmert was planning to include in the negotiations members of the Mideast Quartet – the U.N., U.S., EU and Russia – as well as Jordan, Egypt, the Vatican and possibly the king of Morocco.
According to Palestinian sources directly involved in the negotiations, the reference to "international proposals" is specific to a U.S. plan – first reported last week by WND – that has been floated amongst the parties to deal with dividing Jerusalem in five years.

According to informed Israeli and Palestinian sources, officials from the State Department this year presented both negotiating sides with several proposals for consideration regarding the future status of Jerusalem. It was unclear whether the U.S. proposals were accepted.

One U.S. plan for Jerusalem obtained by WND was divided into timed phases, and among other things called for Israel eventually to consider forfeiting parts of the Temple Mount, Judaism's holiest site.

According to the first stage of the U.S. proposal, Israel would initially give the PA some municipal and security sovereignty over key Arab neighborhoods in eastern Jerusalem. The PA would be allowed to open some official institutions in Jerusalem, could elect a mayor for the Palestinian side of the city and would deploy some kind of so-called basic security force to maintain law and order. The specifics of the force were not detailed in the plan.

The initial stage also calls for the PA to operate Jerusalem municipal institutions, such as offices to oversee trash collection and maintenance of roads.

After five years, if both sides keep specific commitments called for in a larger principal agreement, according to the U.S. plan the PA would be given full sovereignty over agreed upon eastern Jerusalem neighborhoods and discussions would be held regarding an arrangement for the Temple Mount. The plan doesn't specify which parts of the Temple Mount could be forfeited to the Palestinians or whether an international force may be involved.

The PA also could deploy official security forces in Jerusalem separate from a non-defined basic force after the five year period and could also open major governmental institutions, such as a president's office, and offices for the finance and foreign ministries.

The U.S. plan leaves Israel and the PA to negotiate which Jerusalem neighborhoods would become Palestinian.

Standing alongside Abbas at a press conference, Olmert today announced in English that "We have to complete the Annapolis process this year – this year."

The Israeli leader was referring to talks started at last November's U.S.-backed Annapolis conference, which seeks to create a Palestinian state – at least on paper – before President Bush leaves office in January.

According to top diplomatic sources, Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, who visited the region last week, pressed Israel to sign a document by the end of the year that would include Jerusalem by offering the Palestinians a state in Israel's capital city as well as in the West Bank and Gaza Strip.

The Israeli team would rather conclude an agreement on paper by the end of the year that would give the Palestinians a state in the West Bank, Gaza and some Israeli territory, leaving conclusions on Jerusalem for a later date, the informed diplomatic sources told WND.

The sources said the Palestinian team has been pushing to conclude a deal by January on all core issues, including Jerusalem, and has been petitioning the U.S. to pressure Israel into signing an agreement on paper that offers the Palestinians eastern Jerusalem.

Rice, the sources said, has asked Israeli leaders to bend to what the U.S. refers to as a "compromise position," concluding an Israeli-Palestinian agreement by the end of the year that guarantees sections of Jerusalem to the Palestinians. But Israel would not be required to withdraw from Jerusalem for a period of one to five years.

Connecting the Dots - Russian spring toward Black Sea and Mediterranean has underpinnings of ancient Ezekiel Prophecy

by Bill Wilson, KIN Senior Analyst

At the very least, Russia and Islam appear to be moving quickly toward a type-and-shadow of a 2,500 year old prophecy found in the Bible. Ezekiel 38:4-9 (NJKV) speaks about Gog, modern day Russia where the LORD says he will "put hooks into your jaws, and I will bring you forth and all thine army ... Persia, Ethiopia and Libya with them ... in the latter years you shall come into the land that is brought back from the sword, and is gathered out of many people, against the mountains of Israel ... you shall ascend and come like a storm, you shall be like a cloud to cover the land, you and all your band, and many people with you."

Russian actions of recent weeks would indicate a positioning of the Russian forces and allies around Israel that could be paving the way for a massive end-time attack on Israel, or, at the very least, a military vice with Israel immobilized and the United States held at bay as Islam advances at will.

First, there was the recent meeting between Russian leaders and Syrian President Bashar Assad discussing a military protection agreement with Russia and the possiblity of deploying Russian nuclear missiles on Syrian ground. At the same time, Russia was moving to retake strategic ports in the Black Sea from the former Soviet state of Georgia.

Now Russia is fixed on the other former Soviet states of Moldova and Ukraine - both with strategic ports in the Black Sea. The Black Sea is a crucial buffer between Russia and the Middle East. Controlling the Black Sea would give Russia unabated access to stock Iran and Syria with weapons and to have control over oil shipping lanes and pipelines entering Europe from the Middle East.

There are reports that Russia has large dredgers working the Syrian port of Tartus in order to accomodate additional Russian ships to be deployed to the Mediterranean Sea. Meantime, Egypt and Saudi Arabia are developing a new security protocol for Gaza that is sure to bring more weapons closer to Israel.

Strategically, Russia's moves in the Black Sea and the Mediterranean tax NATO and U.S. forces that are already spread thin on the Islamic fronts in Afghanistan and Iraq. This occurs at the same time Iran's Russian and Chinese sponsered nuclear and missile development program is accelerating.

It is possible that Israel will be surrounded by the most firepower in it's history, and the U.S. may not have the ability or the will to protect Israel. With Israeli and American forces stalemated, Russian and Islamic interests could well advance with impunity. This Ezekiel prophecy, which may be unfolding before our eyes and will result in a great defeat for Russia, has a purpose.

The LORD says in Ezekiel 38:23, "I will be known in the eyes of many nations, and they shall know that I AM the LORD."

Brothers and Sisters,

Things are moving fast now, and only GOD knows what will happen tomorrow, BUT WE HAVE HIS PROMISES AS CHRISTIANS!

We must know that GOD will NOT be denied for long. We are actually witnessing worse than just denial, rather attempted humiliation and mockery of GOD. THE GREAT AND ALMIGHTY "I AM" has been very patient with evil men, but it appears that patience is about to end. Evil will be brought finally to the realization that HE IS GOD AND WON'T BE DENIED, but it will be too late for them.

Brothers and Sisters, I have no idea how much Christians will witness before JESUS CHRIST comes and RAPTURES HIS CHURCH. This world is going to be an UGLY AND EVIL place, and we've only seen just the beginning - just a glimpse. How much will we see first? ONLY GOD KNOWS! There are events in the HOLY BIBLE that should give us an idea about how GOD deals with those HE considers HIS. On a small scale, we have the example of Lot. On a large scale, we have the example of Noah. GOD has already told us that THE CHURCH WHICH IS THE BODY OF CHRIST was NOT formed for HIS WRATH, rather for HIS RESCUE! HIS Promises to us are so bold and blunt that we can consider ourselves to be ALREADY RESCUED AND DELIVERED FROM THE WRATH TO COME! The BODY OF CHRIST is already accepted in the BELOVED, and each member already has the INDWELLING HOLY SPIRIT OF GOD. We were QUICKENED (TRANSLATED) into the BODY OF CHRIST at the moment of SALVATION. No power in the Universe can separate us from the Love of GOD or the PROMISES OF GOD!

We are already seeing some horrible things, but the Tribulation Period IS NOT here yet. It will be horror beyond human imagination, and we haven't even seen the beginning yet. The Tribulation Period is 7 years long, and that just happens to be the time period for a peace treaty with Israel. It will be a false peace that doesn't last long. The last half of the Tribulation period is called "THE GREAT TRIBULATION" OR THE "TIME OF JACOB'S TROUBLE". If any time period in history could be worse, this one will be worse than the first half of the Tribulation Period. ONLY CHRIST will be able to stop the evil and restore peace. In fact, JESUS CHRIST will establish a PEACE like the world has never known, and HE will rule and reign over the earth.

Isaiah 2:1-5 NASB
The word which Isaiah the son of Amoz saw concerning Judah and Jerusalem. Now it will come about that In the last days The mountain of the house of the LORD Will be established as the chief of the mountains, And will be raised above the hills; And all the nations will stream to it. And many peoples will come and say, "Come, let us go up to the mountain of the LORD, To the house of the God of Jacob; That He may teach us concerning His ways And that we may walk in His paths." For the law will go forth from Zion And the word of the LORD from Jerusalem. And He will judge between the nations, And will render decisions for many peoples; And they will hammer their swords into plowshares and their spears into pruning hooks. Nation will not lift up sword against nation, And never again will they learn war. Come, house of Jacob, and let us walk in the light of the LORD.

Isaiah 9:2-7 NASB
The people who walk in darkness Will see a great light; Those who live in a dark land, The light will shine on them. You shall multiply the nation, You shall increase their gladness; They will be glad in Your presence As with the gladness of harvest, As men rejoice when they divide the spoil. For You shall break the yoke of their burden and the staff on their shoulders, The rod of their oppressor, as at the battle of Midian. For every boot of the booted warrior in the battle tumult, And cloak rolled in blood, will be for burning, fuel for the fire. For a child will be born to us, a son will be given to us; And the government will rest on His shoulders; And His name will be called Wonderful Counselor, Mighty God, Eternal Father, Prince of Peace. There will be no end to the increase of His government or of peace, On the throne of David and over his kingdom, To establish it and to uphold it with justice and righteousness From then on and forevermore. The zeal of the LORD of hosts will accomplish this.

Palin backs Israeli right to strike Iran
Sep. 12, 2008
JPost.com Staff , THE JERUSALEM POST

The US must ensure that Teheran does not obtain weapons of mass destruction and should not second guess an Israeli decision to carry out a strike against Iran's nuclear facilities, Alaska Governor Sarah Palin, John McCain's running mate in the US presidential race, said Thursday night in an interview with ABC News that focused almost exclusively on foreign policy issues.

"I believe that under the leadership of [President Mahmoud] Ahmadinejad, nuclear weapons in the hands of his government are extremely dangerous to everyone on this globe," Palin asserted. "We have got to make sure these weapons of mass destruction; that nuclear weapons are not given to the hands of Ahmadinejad, not that he would use them, but that he would allow terrorists to be able to use them. So we have got to put the pressure on Iran."

When asked how the US should respond in the event of an Israeli attack on Iran, Palin said, "Well, first, we are friends of Israel, and I don't think that we should second guess the measures that Israel has to take to defend themselves, and for their security."

The interviewer went on to repeat the question in various forms, but Palin reiterated that "I don't think we can second guess what Israel has to do to secure its nation."

The Alaska governor was then asked to divulge her opinion regarding the roots of Islamic terrorism, which had led, seven years earlier, to the attack on the World Trade Center in New York.

"You know, there is a very small percentage of Islamic believers who are extreme, and they are violent, and they do not believe in American ideals. And they attacked us. And now we are at a point, here, seven years later, on the anniversary, in this post- 9/11 world, where we are able to commit to never again," she replied.

"The only option for them is to become a suicide bomber, to get caught up in this evil, in this terror. They need to be provided the hope that all Americans have, instilled in us, because we're democratic and we are a free, we're a free-thinking society."

During the interview Palin also reiterated opinions voiced by McCain regarding the Russian invasion of Georgia, saying that Tbilisi, as well as the Ukraine, should be allowed to join NATO's ranks. Asked whether such a move could precipitate a military conflict between US and Russian forces should Russia invade Georgia once more, Palin replied, "Perhaps so. That is the agreement. When you are a NATO ally, if another country is attacked, you are going to be expected to be called upon and help."

Palin backs Israeli right to strike Iran (http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?cid=1221142455689&pagename=JPost%2FJPArticle%2FPrinter)

Quote from: DreamWeaver on September 12, 2008, 02:44:17 PM

The one candidate that has only about 2 week's exposure to one particular subject. Foreign Policy, and that is the one area the interview focused.

This is incorrect to begin with. Sarah Palin has had much more than 2 weeks foreign policy experience.

As Governor of Alaska, Sarah Palin is the Commander in Chief of the Alaska National and Air Guard that combined is a force larger than many third world armies.

Alaska is compelled to take daily defensive postures against Russian TU-95 Bear flights and other frequent incursions.

Governor Palin also is at constant odds with Russia over fishing rights and other aspects of running a state 1/3 the size of the continental United States right next to an aggressive competitive nation with precious little moral boundaries.

She has also been actively involved in negotiations with Canada over commercial transportation rights through Alaska.

Alaska is the first line of defense in our missile interceptor defense system. The 49th Missile Defense Battalion of the Alaska National Guard is the unit that protects the entire nation from ballistic missile attacks. It's on permanent active duty, unlike other Guard units.

As governor of Alaska, Palin is briefed on highly classified military issues, homeland security, and counterterrorism. Her exposure to classified material may rival even Biden's.

She's also the commander in chief of the Alaska State Defense Force (ASDF), a federally recognized militia incorporated into Homeland Security's counterterrorism plans.

Palin is privy to military and intelligence secrets that are vital to the entire country's defense. Given Alaska's proximity to Russia, she may have security clearances we don't even know about.

According to the Washington Post, she first met with McCain in February, but nobody ever found out. This is a woman used to keeping secrets.

She can be entrusted with our national security, because she already is.

You can read more about the Alaska National Guard and its role in our Missile Defense System in the following links:

http://www.defenselink.mil/news/newsarticle.aspx?id=2483

http://www.defenselink.mil/news/newsarticle.aspx?id=47177

Even though that may not be a lot of experience it is a whole lot more than Obama has had and more than likely rivals if not exceeds even that of Biden.

I also am reasonably sure that she has been watching the situation in the Middle East a whole lot closer than either Obama or Biden as she realizes the effect it would have on Alaska.

Iranian general: Israel has an army of glass

Former Iranian defense minister says Jewish state cannot strike in his country on its own, warns Islamic republic 'will hit Israel harder than Hizbullah did'

Dudi Cohen
Published: 10.19.08, 16:33 / Israel News

Former Iranian Defense Minister General Ali Samahani said Sunday that his country had never launched a war and has no plans to do so. In the same breath, he noted that Iran had the ability to respond to Israel's army, which is "made out of glass".

"We know Israel will be very vulnerable in light of Iran's reactions," he declared.

Samahani, who serves as head of the Islamic Republic's center for defensive strategic studies and is a member of several organizations affiliated with the Tehran government, made the remarks in an interview with the Fars news agency.

"Israel has built a military country, and if the honor and strategy of the army is destroyed, as in the Second Lebanon War, nothing is left," he said.

The former minister warned that "Iran will hit Israel harder than Hizbullah did."

Addressing the Jewish state's threats to attack Iran's nuclear facilities, he said that experience shows Israel struck nuclear facilities twice in the past – in Iraq and in Syria. "Only after the target was hit, the facilities' purpose was revealed," Samahani stressed.

He added that there is a state of ambiguity in Israel regarding to its ability to strike, as well as in regards to the possibility to meet the goal and to the ramifications of a strike in Iran.

"Israel cannot do it on its own," he said, "even if it does receive American and regional backing. Experience shows they attack first and talk later. They don’t talk and then attack.

"Therefore, since they have spoken, they probably have a different goal. Although we are not ruling out any possibility, they talks have no effect," the general concluded.

Iranian general: Israel has an army of glass (http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-3610678,00.html)

Russia Not Backing Down From Missile Plans In Syria
By David Bedein, Middle East Correspondent
10/20/2008

Jerusalem - Contrary assurances received during Prime Minister Ehud Olmert's recent visit to Moscow, Russia has not backed away from its plans to station S-300 anti-aircraft missiles on Syrian soil.

These anti-aircraft missiles could pose a significant obstacle to potential future Israeli Air Force activity in Syrian airspace.

Western intelligence sources note the Syrians requested the stationing of the Russian missiles on its territory during talks held in Moscow between the Russian Defense Ministry and high-ranking Syrian officials.

The Russians would operate the missiles, and they intend to station the missiles on Syrian soil as part of the defense alliance to protect Russia's strategic assets in Syria.

Syria's two naval bases, in Tartus and Latakia, are of prime strategic importance to Russia. They are being converted in order to host the Russian Black Sea Fleet in the Mediterranean Sea, which is comprised of approximately 50 warships and 80 warplanes.

The Washington Post reported in September that construction on the two Syrian naval bases has been accelerated. In Tartus, Russian teams are engaged in expanding the existing port and deepening it; the Russians are building floating piers in Latakia that will serve the Russian vessels that will be docked there.

The acceleration of the work on the Syrian ports stems from the Russian concerns that closer ties between Ukraine and the West should endanger the Russian Black Sea Fleet's main port in Sevastopol, Ukraine. The current agreement between Russia and Ukraine expires in 2017. The pro-Western Ukrainian President Viktor Lukashenko has demanded that Russia end the contract earlier and has pressured the Russians by raising the rent.

It should be noted that the relocation of the Russian Black Sea Fleet to Syria and a Russian military presence on Syrian soil will necessarily have an impact on Israel's ability to operate near he Syria.

Russia Not Backing Down From Missile Plans In Syria (http://www.thebulletin.us/site/printerFriendly.cfm?brd=2737&dept_id=576361&newsid=20170449)

Russia, Iran and Qatar discuss forming gas cartel
By NASSER KARIMI, Associated Press Writer Nasser Karimi, Associated Press Writer
Oct 21, 7:22 pm ET

TEHRAN, Iran – Russia, Iran and Qatar made the first serious moves Tuesday toward forming an OPEC-style cartel on natural gas, raising concerns that Moscow could boost its influence over energy markets spanning from Europe to South Asia.

Such an alliance would have little direct impact on the United States, which imports virtually no natural gas from Russia or the other nations.

But Washington and Western allies worry that closer strategic ties between Russia and Iran could hinder efforts to isolate Tehran over its nuclear ambitions. In addition, the United States opposes a proposed Iranian gas pipeline to Pakistan and India, key allies.

In Europe — which counts on Russia for nearly half of its natural gas imports — any cartel controlled by Moscow poses a threat to supply and pricing.

Russia, which most recently came into confrontation with the West over its five-day war with Georgia in August, has been accused of using its hold on energy supplies to bully its neighbors, particularly Ukraine.

Moscow cut natural gas exports to the former Soviet republic over a price dispute during the dead of winter in 2006 — a cutoff that caused disruptions to European nations further down the pipeline.

The 27-nation European Union expressed strong opposition to any natural gas cartel Tuesday, with an EU spokesman, Ferran Tarradellas Espuny, saying: "The European Commission feels that energy supplies have to be sold in a free market."

Together Russia, Qatar and Iran account for nearly a third of world natural gas exports — the vast majority supplied by Russia — according to U.S. government statistics. The three hold some 60 percent of world gas reserves, according to Russia's state-controlled energy company Gazprom.

The United States — the world's largest consumer of oil and gas — produces most of its natural gas needs at home, importing only from Canada and Mexico.

Russia is also a major oil producer, though not an OPEC member. For its part, Iran, in its standoff with world powers over its nuclear program, has threatened to choke off oil shipments through the Persian Gulf if it is attacked.

A gas cartel could extend both countries' reach in energy and politics, particularly if oil prices bounce back to the highs seen earlier this year, prompting renewed interest in cleaner-burning natural gas and other alternative fuels.

Tuesday's gathering in Tehran appeared to be the most significant step toward the formation of such a group since Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, first raised the idea in January 2007.

"Big decisions were made," said Iranian Oil Minister Gholam Hossein Nozari. His Qatari counterpart, Abdulla Bin Hamad al-Attiya, said at least two more meetings were needed to finalize an accord, according to the Iranian Oil Ministry's Web site. No timeframe was given.

Calling the grouping the "big gas troika," the chief executive of Russia's state-controlled energy company Gazprom, Alexei Miller, said it would meet three or four times a year.

"We are consolidating the largest gas reserves in the world, the general strategic interests and — what is very important — the high potential for cooperation on three-party projects," Miller said.

Already, Russia has built Iran's first nuclear reactor, which Iranian officials say could begin operating later this year. The West fears Iran's nuclear program could lead to development of atomic weapons; Iran insists it is only for peaceful energy production.

Experts say a natural gas cartel would not have the same influence on prices as OPEC has on oil since natural gas is not subject to the same severe fluctuations.

"There's always some worry when these guys get together that they'll try to replicate OPEC, but they know that's not doable," said Robert Ebel, senior adviser to the Energy and National Security Project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington. "They can try to get more control over gas, but it's not OPEC."

That's because gas, unlike oil, is traded on much longer-term contracts, of as much as 25 years.

"Gas is a regional commodity and oil is an international commodity," Ebel said. "If you want to buy a tanker of crude, you can buy one at today's prices. When you want to build a natural gas pipeline, you have to have two things: enough gas to justify building a pipeline that will operate for 25 years, and ... customers that will agree to buy that gas at a range of prices for 25 years."

Still, a natural gas cartel could wield some influence on world prices, particularly in Europe and Asia, said James Cordier, president of Tampa, Fla.-based trading firms Liberty Trading Group and OptionSellers.com.

"To try to maneuver the supply ... makes perfect sense," he said. "Just because it doesn't have the clout of oil, it's still in their best interest to deliver natural gas where it needs to go and manage supply in order to help manage the price."

Liquefied natural gas — a rapidly growing segment of the market — could be traded as a commodity similar to oil at some point in the future, and the move by Russia, Iran and Qatar appears to anticipate that, said Konstantin Batunin, an analyst with Moscow's Alfa Bank.

Gazprom, the Russian state energy company, is looking to make the U.S. one of its prime markets for liquefied natural gas, and sent senior executives to Alaska last week to discuss energy projects.

Russia, Iran and Qatar discuss forming gas cartel (http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20081021/ap_on_re_mi_ea/ml_gas_cartel/print;_ylt=AuCYTP_dSwBCbBfztfrvgHMUewgF)

Egypt drafts Palestinian unity paper
By Nidal al-Mughrabi Nidal Al-mughrabi Mon Oct 20, 4:35 pm ET

GAZA (Reuters) – Egypt on Monday called on rival Palestinian factions to form a unity government and restructure their security forces in a bid to end hostilities that have undermined efforts to reach a statehood deal.

Cairo presented a four-page proposal, a copy of which was obtained by Reuters, to Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas's Fatah faction and Islamist Hamas, outlining steps the groups should take to end their power struggle.

Egypt also said Abbas should continue peace talks with Israel but that any deal needs approval from a national referendum or the Palestinian Liberation Organization (PLO), which it said should be restructured to include all factions, including Hamas, which is sworn to Israel's destruction.

Egypt drafted the proposal after a series of talks with 13 Palestinian factions and it will be discussed when the groups meet again in Cairo on November 9.

Previous Arab-led initiatives have failed to reconcile the bitter rivals and initial reactions by the groups cast doubt on whether any deal can be reached.

The Egyptian proposal calls for the immediate formation of a Palestinian unity government and an agreement on when to hold national elections.

A previous unity government collapsed after Hamas routed Fatah forces to take control of the Gaza Strip in 2007. Abbas sacked the Hamas-led government and appointed a Western-backed administration in the occupied West Bank where Fatah holds sway.

The groups also disagree on when to hold new elections with Fatah calling for both presidential and parliamentary elections to be held in 2010 and Hamas saying Abbas's term ends in January 2009. Cairo's proposal calls for simultaneous elections.

Egypt said that Hamas and Fatah security forces, which have frequently fought each other, should be removed from factional politics and be operated at a national level.

Hamas spokesman Sami Abu Zuhri said Hamas would accept the proposal "after some amendments are made and some clarifications are given" without giving any details.

Fatah officials said they accept the Egyptian proposal but ask for the two additions. They said any transitional government should be committed to past PLO agreements, a demand routinely rejected by Hamas, and that Abbas and the PLO remain solely responsible for holding peace talks with Israel.

Egypt drafts Palestinian unity paper (http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20081020/wl_nm/us_palestinians_egypt/print)

Libya seeks Russian arms

Interfax quotes Russian arms source, says OPEC member may buy more than $2 billion in weapons, including surface-to-air missiles

Reuters
10.21.08, 07:55
Israel News

Libya may agree to buy more than $2 billion worth of Russian weapons during a visit by Muammar Gaddafi to Moscow this month, Interfax news agency reported on Monday, citing an unidentified source in Russia's arms industry.

"An agreement on concluding a major set of arms contracts for more than $2 billion could be reached during the visit of Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi to Moscow," Interfax quoted the source as saying.

The source said Gaddafi's visit to Moscow was planned for the end of October. Both the Libyan embassy in Moscow and Russia's state arms exporter declined immediate comment.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov later said Moscow was preparing for the Gaddafi visit and that the final details of the trip would be announced soon, Interfax reported.

Russian warships visited Libya this month, signalling a warming of ties between Tripoli and Moscow, which supported Libya during the Soviet era.

Libya is interested in buying surface-to-air missile systems such as the S-300, TOR-M1 and Buk, as well as several fighter aircraft, dozens of helicopters and about 50 tanks, Interfax quoted the source as saying.

Russia is also preparing contracts to upgrade Libya's Soviet-era weapons, the agency said.

Libya wants Moscow to write off $4.5 billion in debts it owes to Russia in exchange for the purchases, Interfax said. Many Soviet-era debts are difficult to price because they were set in Soviet roubles.

Libya was seen as a rogue state by Washington until it agreed to give up a weapons of mass destruction programme. Last month U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice met Gaddafi in Tripoli, the first such visit in 55 years.

Libya wants to expand ties with Russia, which it sees as a counterbalance to US influence in the Mediterranean.

Prime Minister Vladimir Putin, while still Russian president, visited Libya in April to strengthen energy ties with the OPEC member and discuss the possibility of Russian cooperation in building an atomic power plant in Libya.

Putin said at the time that Libya was also seeking to buy Russian weapons.

Libya seeks Russian arms (http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-3611148,00.html)

Swords and Shields: Russia shields Syria
by Ariel Cohen
Washington (UPI) Oct 16, 2008

Until Russia can revitalize its naval forces to a much larger degree, its
deployments to the Mediterranean contribute more to symbolic and diplomatic
activity than being a viable military counterweight to NATO in the region.
Yet the Black Sea Fleet in the Med is a significant show of force and a
diplomatic irritant and a potential threat to shipping in the Suez Canal and
to America's ally Israel.

The increased Russian naval presence in the region means that the Kremlin is
seeking to cultivate Syria as a close regional ally, and is looking to
secure additional bases for the Black Sea Fleet besides its current base in
the Black Sea port of Sevastopol.

In addition, Russia would also be able to deploy electronic
intelligence-gathering ships that could then improve its monitoring
capabilities against NATO forces and Syria's ability to monitor NATO and
Israeli transmissions, expanding the previous naval intelligence engagement
during the Balkan wars.

Finally, Russian naval forces could deter or disrupt Israeli naval or air
assets deployed in wartime against Syria or Hezbollah in Lebanon.

Syria is pursuing new arms deals with Russia, including the purchase of the
Mikoyan-Gurevich MiG-29 M2, MiG-31, the latest Sukhoi Su-30 version --
Flanker, Tor-M1 air defense systems, AT-14 antitank missiles, upgrades for
Syria's aging T-62, T-72 and T-80 Main Battle Tanks, SA-5 Gammon
anti-aircraft missile systems, and upgrading Syria's existing S-125 Air
Defense systems to the Pechora-2A.

Iran is also involved in supporting Damascus. In 2007 alone Iran reportedly
financed Syrian purchases of Russian arms to the tune of $1 billion. Iran
and Syria, which have had a mutual defense treaty since 2004, train and
equip Hezbollah, the biggest terrorist organization in the Middle East.
Russia is cultivating both states as allies and as customers for Russian
arms.

What is particularly disturbing is that the Russian layered air defenses,
both short-range TOR and long-range S-300 anti-aircraft systems, are capable
of providing the defensive envelope to the mysterious Syrian nuclear
research activities, as well as to the significant chemical weapons arsenal
deliverable by Damascus' short-range ballistic missiles, such as
Syrian-produced SCUD-C and SCUD-D and, potentially, Russian-made
Iskander-E -- NATO designation SS-X-26.

Damascus has also acquired Pantsir-C1 air defense systems, which represent
the current state of the art in Russian military air defense technology, but
no deal has yet been reached. According to sources in Moscow, Russia is
likely to equip Syria's Tartus naval base with S-300PMU-2 Favorit ballistic
missiles and a radar system more sophisticated than Syria's current
capabilities.

During the Cold War era, the Soviet Union boasted a global naval power
projection capability with yearly naval maneuvers in the Caribbean and the
North Fleet naval brigade in Conakry, Guinea, and Luanda, Angola.

The 8th Operational Squadron of the Pacific Fleet had supply bases in Aden
and Socotra in Yemen and Dahlak in Eritrea, and in Berbera in Somalia. After
the five-day Aug. 8-Aug. 12 war in the former Soviet republic of Georgia in
the Caucasus, the Russian Black Sea Fleet is planning to deploy in Abkhazia,
at the ports of Ochamchira and Sukhumi.

For Moscow today, Tartus is only the first step in the long road to a
renewed global naval presence.

Swords and Shields: Russia shields Syria (http://www.spacewar.com/reports/Swords_and_Shields_Russia_shields_Syria_999.html)

Russia, Iran and Qatar announce cartel that will control 60% of world's gas supplies
EC fears Opec-style group will drive up prices

Terry Macalister,
Wednesday October 22 2008

Western concerns about global energy markets hit new heights last night when Russia, Iran and Qatar said they were forming an Opec-style gas cartel.

The move by the three countries, which control 60% of the world's gas reserves, was met with immediate opposition from the European commission, which fears the group could drive up prices.

Alexey Miller, chairman of Russia's Gazprom, said they were forming a "big gas troika" and warned that the era of cheap hydrocarbons had come to an end.

"We are united by the world's largest gas reserves, common strategic interests and, which is of great importance, high cooperation potential in tripartite projects," he explained. "We have agreed to hold regular - three to four times a year - meetings of the gas G3 to discuss the crucial issues of mutual interest."

Miller's comments, likely to increase pressure on the west to accelerate developments in wind and other renewable energy alternatives, followed a meeting in Tehran with Gholamhossein Nozari, Iran's petroleum minister, and Abdullah bin Hamad al-Attiyah, Qatar's deputy prime minister and oil and energy minister.

Miller said the group was establishing a technical committee comprised of specialists and experts to discuss the implementation of joint projects embracing the entire value chain from geological exploration to marketing.

The Russians avoided the word cartel but the Iranians spelled it out clearly. "There is a demand to form this gas Opec and there is a consensus to set up gas Opec," Nozari told a news conference.

With Opec due to meet on Friday to look at ways of driving up oil prices, Miller said fossil fuels were going to cost more. "We share the opinion that oil price fluctuations don't put in question the fundamental thesis stating that the era of cheap hydrocarbons has come to an end."

The European commission said last night that it would oppose the creation of any organisation that could restrict competition. "The European commission feels that energy supplies have to be sold in a free market," said its spokesman, Ferran Tarradellas Espuny.

The west already suspects that Russia and Iran are happy to use energy to pursue political goals. The cutting off of gas by Moscow to Ukraine in the middle of a political and commercial spat caused outrage and worry in western Europe.

For its part, Iran, in its stand-off with world powers over its nuclear programme, has threatened to choke off oil shipments through the Persian Gulf if it is attacked.

A gas cartel could extend both countries' reach in energy and politics, particularly if oil prices bounce back to the highs seen this year, prompting politicians, businesses and consumers to look toward cleaner-burning natural gas and other alternative fuels.

The gathering in Iran needs to be ratified by further meetings in Qatar and Russia but is the most significant step toward the formation of such a group since Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, raised the idea in January 2007.

The European Union depends on Russia for nearly half of its natural gas imports. Moscow, which controls many of the pipelines from Russia and central Asia, already has a tight hold on supplies.

"To try to manoeuvre the supply makes perfect sense," said James Cordier, president of the US-based Liberty Trading Group and OptionSellers.com. "Just because it doesn't have the clout of oil, it's still in their best interest to deliver natural gas where it needs to go and manage supply in order to help manage the price."

Liquefied natural gas, a rapidly growing segment of the market, could be traded as a commodity similar to oil and the move by Russia, Iran and Qatar appears to anticipate that, said Konstantin Batunin, an analyst with Moscow's Alfa Bank.

"My take is that it is just a commitment to create something in the future," he said. "It's just a first step."

Russia, Iran and Qatar announce cartel that will control 60% of world's gas supplies (http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2008/oct/22/gas-russia-gazprom-iran-qatar/print)

Abbas meets Jordan's king, sees no peace pact with Israel in 2008
Amman - Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas on Sunday excluded the possibility of reaching a peace agreement with Israel before the end of 2008 as envisaged at the Annapolis conference in November last year. Frankly speaking there will be no compreh...

Posted : Sun, 02 Nov 2008 16:09:08 GMT

Amman - Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas on Sunday excluded the possibility of reaching a peace agreement with Israel before the end of 2008 as envisaged at the Annapolis conference in November last year. "Frankly speaking there will be no comprehensive solution before the end of 2008," Abbas told reporters after talks with Jordan's King Abdullah II.

"There is no possibility for working out a partial agreement, because we seek a comprehensive accord," he said.

Since the Annapolis conference in November 2007, Israel and the Palestinians have been involved in peace negotiations with the avowed aim of reaching a peace pact that tackles all core issues settlements, refugees and frontiers.

The outcome of the peace talks figured prominently in Abbas' talks with King Abdullah.

"We discussed the attitude that we can take pending the election of a new US administration and the formation of a new Israeli government," Abbas said.

Israeli Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni, who was asked by President Shimon Peres to try to form a coalition government, announced earlier this week that whe was unable to do so and instead recommended holding general elections.

For his part, King Abdullah underscored the importance of reaching "a reconciliation" between Abbas' Fatah group and the Islamic movement, Hamas, saying such a step would be "instrumental in fulfilling the objective of setting up an independent Palestinian state," according to a royal court statement.

He promised continued Jordanian support for Abbas in his endeavours "to regain Palestinian rights through the negotiation process."

Abbas meets Jordan's king, sees no peace pact with Israel in 2008 (http://www.earthtimes.org/articles/show/239716,abbas-meets-jordans-king-sees-no-peace-pact-with-israel.html)

Medvedev assails US in annual address

Russian president blames America for recent war in Georgia, global financial crisis, says Moscow will deploy missiles in its Baltic Sea territory in response to US missile defense plans

Associated Press
11.05.08, 12:50
Israel News

Russian President Dmitry Medvedev has blamed the United States for the recent war in Georgia and the global financial crisis.

Medvedev wasted no time assailing the United States Wednesday in his first state-of-the-nation address since taking office in May. He said Russia is not inherently anti-American but suggested it is up to the United States to take the initiative in improving ties.

Minutes into the speech, he said Russia's war with Georgia was the result of aggressive US policy and that American self-interest led to the current global financial turmoil.

Medvedev said the war in Georgia increased tension in a volatile region and destabilized long-standing foundations of world order.

He added that Russia would deploy missiles in its Baltic Sea territory in response to US missile defense plans.

Medvedev said the short-range Iskander missiles will be deployed to the Kaliningrad region which borders NATO members Poland and Lithuania. He has not said how many missiles will be deployed or whether they will be fitted with nuclear warheads.

Russia will also deploy equipment to conduct to electronically hamper the operation of prospective US missile defense facilities in Poland and the Czech Republic, he added.

Medvedev said that Russia will also use navy resources as part of its response to the US missile shield.

Hope for change under Obama

Addressing Barack Obama's election as the new US president, Medvedev said he hopes Obama's administration will take steps to improve badly damaged US ties with Russia. He did not congratulate the new president in the address.

Medvedev said Russia hopes that Obama's administration will "make a choice in favor of full-fledged relations with Russia."

His criticism of the United States was in line with previous addresses by his predecessor, Vladimir Putin.

Russian-American relations have been increasingly tense and were driven to a post-Cold War low by Moscow's war with US ally Georgia.

Medvedev assails US in annual address (http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-3618141,00.html)

The 22nd Russia-EU summit ends in Nice

14.11.2008, 16.40

NICE, November 14 (Itar-Tass) The agenda of the summit consists of three blocks of problems: the EU-Russia bilateral cooperation, the global financial crisis, and the Euro-Atlantic security, including the Russian president’s initiative to conclude a new Treaty on European Security. To be broached in this context also are some ABM problems and the situation in South Ossetia, Abkhazia and Georgia.

Russia’s decision to recognize the independence of Abkhazia and South Ossetia is final and not liable to revision, President Dmitry Medvedev told a news conference following the Russia-EU summit, when asked in what coordinate system the situation in the Caucasus was being discussed.

Russia’s recognition of these two republics, which have suffered from Georgia’s aggression, is not a subject for gambling or bargaining. It was a well-considered state-level decision, Medvedev said. He added that Russia would be building full-scale inter-state relations with both republics.

Russia is ready to further discuss settlement in the Caucasus, Medvedev told reporters.

“We are ready for a further constructive discussion of settlement in the Caucasus. We are ready to discuss this directly, looking each other into eyes,” he said adding that Russia would discuss these problems with European partners at any meetings “although in the future this (the meetings) will be overgrown with non-existing details.”

“Russia recognizes Georgia’s territorial integrity taking into account the fact that it recognized independence of South Ossetia and Abkhazia,” Medvedev said.

The president also said he considered “the Medvedev-Sarkozy plan fully and properly fulfilled.”

Medvedev has thanked French President Nicolas Sarkozy for help the latter man extended in clearing away the acute phase of the crisis in and around South Ossetia, a former region of Georgia that the Georgian government had been subjected to an armed punitive operation in early August.

Medvedev said Russia and the EU proved able then to take fruitful coordinated steps.

"Life has shown there's no alternative to direct talks, in the first place, and the existing mechanisms of ensuring security are imperfect, in the second place," he said.

Medvedev voiced the hope that Russia and the EU will begin talks soon on a new Treaty on Strategic Partnership and Cooperation.

"I hope talks on it will begin soon," he said. "We believe this treaty should have a meaty content and a tough structure and set the scene for joint work over many years ahead."

He recalled that an interval had occurred suddenly in preparations of the treaty.

"We were not the proponents of that break but it's good we've overcome it now," Medvedev said.

He refrained from forecasting when talks on the issue might be over, saying: "I don't know when but I hope it'll happen in the near future."

The 22nd Russia-EU summit ends in Nice (http://itar-tass.com/eng/level2.html?NewsID=13273491&PageNum=0)

Obama Favors Saudi Initiative, Dividing Jerusalem

by Maayana Miskin

(IsraelNN.com) United States President-Elect Barack Obama will support the Saudi Initiative for peace between Israel and Arab nations, the British Sunday Times reported Sunday. Obama told Palestinian Authority Chairman Mahmoud Abbas, “The Israelis would be crazy not to accept this initiative,” according to the Times.

The initiative calls on Israel to withdraw completely to its 1949 borders in exchange for normalized relations with Arab League countries. It includes a full retreat from the eastern half of Jerusalem, including the Temple Mount, and from the strategic Golan Heights in northern Israel.

The Saudi Plan has won limited support from President Shimon Peres, who says it could be used to launch negotiations. Other senior politicians and defense officials have dismissed the plan, saying it wold compromise Israel's security.

Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni and Defense Minister Ehud Barak, the heads of the Kadima and Labor parties, have not ruled out the Saudi Initiative completely. However, neither has expressed willingness to give away the Temple Mount or major Israeli population centers located east of Israel's 1949 borders. Approximately 600,000 Israeli citizens live in the areas, including eastern neighborhoods of Jerusalem, demanded for the PA under the Saudi plan.

The plan also calls on Israel to find a solution for the plight of millions of foreign Arabs who claim descent from those who fled Israel during the War of Independence. They are considered refugees by Arab governments and continually have been denied citizenship in their countries of birth.

While proponents of the plan have welcomed the plan as a chance to deal with the refugees without granting them Israeli citizenship, some Arab leaders have warned that any alternative to allowing the millions to “return” to Israel is unacceptable. PA-based terrorist groups such as Hamas and Islamic Jihad are among those who insist that every Arab who identifies as a descendant of a former resident of Israel be allowed to live in Israel.

Abbas: Retreat or War
Palestinian Authority Chairman Mahmoud Abbas addressed a letter to PA Arabs on Saturday saying Israel must retreat to its 1949 borders or face war. “The passage of years... will not force us to abandon or surrender a single inch,” of Judea, Samaria or Jerusalem, Abbas said in the letter, which was published by PA media.

The letter was sent in honor of PA “Independence Day.” While the PA does not rule an independent country, it celebrates “independence” each year in honor of the PA having declared itself an independent entity 20 years ago.

Obama Favors Saudi Initiative, Dividing Jerusalem (http://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/128402)

Greens in Germany pick son of Turks as leader
By Judy Dempsey
Sunday, November 16, 2008

BERLIN: The Green party, one of Germany's main political parties, has elected the son of Turkish immigrants to its top political post, the first time any party here has chosen a leader with an immigrant background.

The election Saturday of Cem Ozdemir, 42, born in southern Germany of parents who had come from Turkey to work as "Gastarbeiter," or guest workers, during the 1960s, marks a major turning point not only for the opposition Greens, but also for the country as a whole.

Even though more than 2.6 million Turks live in Germany, accounting for 3 percent of the population, few have managed to make it to the higher ranks of the professions, including politics and the civil service.

But with a conservative party that had chosen Angela Merkel to run as chancellor in 2005 - a successful gambit - and now an ethnic Turk at the helm of an influential party, it appears that German society is slowly breaking with the past, when women were inconspicuous in public and immigrants' voices were seldom heard.

Ozdemir, a social scientist who studied at the Lutheran College for Social Sciences in Reutlingen in the state of Baden-Württemberg, was elected as a Greens legislator to the lower house of Parliament, the Bundestag, in 1994, the first time anyone with a Turkish background had won such a mandate. He moved to the European Parliament in 2004 after he was forced to give up his parliamentary seat for using his publicly paid airline miles for private use.

With his comeback to domestic politics over the weekend, Ozdemir - who is married, has one child and speaks German with a slight southwestern accent - joins a handful of ethnic Turks in the Greens, the Social Democrats and the new populist Left Party who want to make the parties more representative of the ethnic composition of the German population.

"I want a society where everyone has an equal chance, regardless of where they come from," Ozdemir said in his acceptance speech at the Greens' congress in the central city of Erfurt. He won 79.2 percent of the votes and joined Claudia Roth as the co-leader of the Greens.

It is estimated that 660,000 Turks have taken up German citizenship since 1972, giving them a significant influence. According to the main political parties, more than half a million Turks were eligible to vote in the 2005 election; 75 percent voted for the Social Democrats, 9.2 percent for the Greens and less than 5 percent for the Merkel's Christian Democrats.

With new leaders in place, the Greens are now turning their attention to federal elections next September. Some observers are asking whether the Greens, along with the pro-business Free Democrats, might win enough votes to become junior partners for Merkel's conservative bloc.

Such an idea was treated with ridicule until recently. But in February, the Christian Democrats chose to share power with the Greens in the port city of Hamburg. So far, the coalition, the first of its kind on the state level, has been working effectively, serving as a litmus test for other states.

Ralf Fücks, director of the Heinrich Böll Foundation, which is affiliated with the Green party, said, "In some ways we have more in common with the conservatives when it comes to human rights and values, which Merkel has paid particular attention to."

The Greens and the conservatives also support economic reform, and Merkel has made environmental issues a central theme of her party. But the sticking point for any cooperation, as Fücks acknowledged, is nuclear power. The Greens have always opposed atomic energy, while Merkel has promised to let nuclear power plants continue to run if she is re-elected next year. The conservatives are also against Turkey's joining the European Union, while the Greens favor such a move.

Traditionally, the Greens have been allies of the Social Democrats. The party had been the junior partner in the former coalition led by the Social Democratic chancellor Gerhard Schröder, which lasted from 1998 to 2005. That coalition was defeated by Merkel's conservative bloc, which was forced to band together with the Social Democrats because neither of the big parties was strong enough to establish a coalition with its preferred smaller partners.

Since late 2005, the discipline that characterized the Greens in government has given way to the old divisions between the "fundamentalists" who have opposed German soldiers serving abroad, for example, and the pragmatists, or "Realos," who favor Germany's playing a much greater role, even militarily, in international affairs, economic reform and pushing the environmental agenda.

Under the leadership of Joschka Fischer, who was foreign minister in Schröder's government, the pacifist and fundamentalist wing of the Greens was marginalized as Fischer pushed the party into accepting the NATO bombing of Serbian targets to stop the ethnic cleansing by Serbian security forces of the Albanians in Kosovo.

Greens in Germany pick son of Turks as leader (http://www.iht.com/bin/printfriendly.php?id=17868912)

Iran, Syria tauten grip on Lebanon, Tehran woos Christian president

November 18, 2008

Tehran and Damascus are going all out to get their hooks into Lebanon’s Christian politicians and wean them away from their’ traditional ties with the West. President Michel Suleiman this week accepted an Iranian invitation to visit Tehran this month, while another Lebanese Christian leader, Hizballah’s ally Gen. Michel Aoun, arranged to visit Damascus.

Middle East sources report that the Iranians are forging ahead with a campaign to bind the region’s Christian minorities to their Shiite wagon for challenging Sunni domination. Their first quarry is Lebanon’s powerful community.

Arrangements were finalized Monday with the Iranian ambassador in Beirut Reza Shibani for president Suleiman to spend two days in Tehran on Nov. 24-25. Aoun will visit Damascus at the same time. Their country is meanwhile encircled by Syrian military forces, a factual pointer to Bashar Assad’s real intentions regarding peace.

Although these developments bode ill for Israel too, they was left out of the sweeping 2009 prognosis which the Israeli Military Intelligence chief Maj. Amos Yadlin delivered in Tel Aviv Monday, Nov. 17. Neither did he look ahead to the likelihood that Iran would be able to assemble a nuclear weapon next year, notwithstanding more than a decade of international diplomacy and sanctions.

Senior Israeli intelligence circles commented that the evaluations heard from Yadlin Monday were less attuned to reality than to the estimated positions of the incoming US president Barack Obama’s Middle East team and Olmert-Livni policies. Like them, he omitted to address the agendas which Tehran and Damascus are actively pursuing.

Tehran launched its pursuit of Christian minorities by inviting the Lebanese Maronite leader Aoun to Tehran on Oct. 13, through Hizballah’s good offices.

The gambit worked: The Lebanese leader returned home proclaiming Iran the strongest world power between the Persian Gulf and China and predicting that his trip would bear fruit in six months. In the first week of November, Tehran heaped full honors on the Lebanon’s ex-president, the pro-Syrian Christian Emil Lahoud, when he arrived with a 60-man retinue.

Michel Sleiman can expect no less.

The assumption in Israeli ruling circles that Syria as peace partner will deliver a “Lebanese dowry” is therefore fallacious. Assad plans to squeeze whatever he can from Israel and the new US administration in the coin of territory and backing for his regime, while not giving up an iota of his schemes with Tehran. For now, no one is paying attention to the Syrian-Iranian jaws snapping shut on Lebanon.

Iran hails Russia military aid to Lebanon
Fri, 19 Dec 2008 08:24:55 GMT

A senior Iranian diplomat welcomes a Russian military aid to Lebanon, saying Tehran favors a strong Lebanese army which can counter Israeli threats.

Russia said on Wednesday that it will donate 10 used MiG-29 Fulcrum fighter planes to Lebanon.

The head of the Russian federal military cooperation service, Mikhail Dmitriyev, said also Russia and Lebanon were holding talks on a deal for the Arab country to buy Russian military hardware.

"The Russian move to help strengthen the Lebanese army is in the line with polices of the Islamic Republic of Iran," said Iran's ambassador to Lebanon, Mohammad Reza Sheibani, after a meeting with Lebanon's Marada Movement leader, Suleiman Franjieh, in Beirut.

During the past decades the tiny country has been an easy target for Israel to flex its muscles in the Middle East -- especially in 1982 and 2006.

Israel attacked Lebanon in summer 2006 in a bid to destroy the Hezbollah movement. The 33-day war left many civilians dead and destroyed Lebanon's infrastructure.

In mid-December, the Israeli daily Jerusalem Post quoted military sources as saying that the Golani Brigade of the Israeli Army had recently concluded a one-week military exercise as preparations for waging a war on both Lebanon and Syria.

According to the report, Israel considers Hezbollah as a partner in the Lebanese government, so for Israel there would be no difference between Hezbollah and other parts of the Lebanese government.

Sheibani also said that Tehran is ready to help Lebanese army based on past agreements.

In October, Lebanese Minister of State Jean Oghassabian told the al-Jadid Arabic-language satellite channel that his country would welcome any Iranian effort to provide the Lebanese army with long-needed military equipment.

"The US has taken no serious action to provide the Lebanese army with its needed equipment; therefore, if Iranians want to do so, we welcome them," he said.

Lebanon's 70,000-strong army is under-armed and overstretched with army officials complaining over the lack of heavy armor, anti-aircraft missiles and the absence of a strong air force.

Iran hails Russia military aid to Lebanon (http://www.presstv.ir/detail.aspx?id=78906&sectionid=351020203)

'Russian arms sales could help Iran obliterate Israel'
By The Associated Press
19 Dec 2008

A senior Defense Ministry envoy has urged Russia not to sell Iran advanced anti-aircraft missiles, saying they could help the Islamic Republic destroy Israel, according to a Russian news agency report.

"The deliveries of dangerous armaments to our enemies won't serve the interests of peace and, for instance, can help Iran wipe Israel off the face of earth," the Interfax news agency quoted envoy Amos Gilad was quoted as saying.

Gilad also reportedly said Israel believes Russia will respect his country's interests. "So we expect Russia to demonstrate responsibility on the issue."

The official, who was visiting Moscow, was responding to a question about possible deliveries of Russian S-300 air defense missiles to Iran.

Some Russian media have claimed that a deal has already been struck to sell the missiles, but Russian officials have denied it.

Russia has previously sold Tor-M1 air-defense missiles and other weapons to Iran in deals criticized by the U.S. and Israel. The long-range S-300 is a much more advanced weapon that would make any potential Israeli strike at Iran's nuclear facilities more difficult.

Israel, the United States and much of the international community believe that Iran is secretly developing nuclear weapons, but Iran insists its uranium enrichment program is intended solely for civilian energy needs.

Russia has maintained close ties with Iran and is building the Islamic republic's first nuclear power plant, which is expected to go on line next year. Russia has backed limited United Nations sanctions against Iran, but has staunchly resisted the U.S. push for harsher measures.

According to Interfax, Gilad denied allegations that Russia and Israel had struck a secret deal under which Israel would abstain from selling weapons to Georgia and Russia wouldn't sell weapons to Iran.

He added, however, that Israel would take Russia's interests into account. "And we expect a similar approach from Russia," he was quoted as saying.

In recent months, Israel has done its best to make Russia happy. It has distanced itself from Georgia, announcing even before Georgia's August war with Russia that it was cutting weapons sales to Tbilisi. Israel later further restricted defense contacts and even instructed defense consultants not to visit the Caucasus nation.

Russia's top military officer said this week that Moscow is negotiating with Israel to buy a batch of spy drones in what would be its first ever purchase of military hardware from Israel.

'Russian arms sales could help Iran obliterate Israel' (http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/1048251.html)

Al-Qaida makes Lebanon flashpoint
Analyst expects attack on Israel to result
Posted: December 24, 2008
8:24 pm Eastern

© 2008 WorldNetDaily

Al-Qaida and other Sunni Salafist forces are gathering in Lebanon at the instigation of Saudi Arabia, making the country a potential flashpoint for a future Middle East conflict and a candidate for certain destruction.

Security officials for months have seen an infiltration of al-Qaida from Iraq. Elements of the radical Muslim group have been moving into various Palestinian camps in Lebanon, particularly Ein-el-Hilweh near Sidon south of the Lebanese capital of Beirut.

Sidon is the largest Palestinian camp in Lebanon with some 70,000 people.

"Lebanon quickly is becoming the base from which al-Qaida will launch an attack against Israel," declared one security analyst. "It will also lead to Lebanon's destruction."

The incoming al-Qaida fighters are thought to be under the cover of the Usbat al-Ansar, a sympathetic group that resides at the camp.

According to security officials, the Usbat al-Ansar also has arranged for past operational meetings between the Sunni al-Qaida and the Shiite Hezbollah which resides in Lebanon but is under Iranian and Syrian influence.

The Lebanese Armed Forces are not allowed into the Ein-el-Hilweh camp to pursue alleged terrorists or their sympathizers.

However, those LAF soldiers last year pursued another al-Qaida-related group, the Sunni Fatah al-Islam, at the Nahr-el-Bared camp in northern Lebanon near Tripoli, destroying much of the camp in the process but eliminating their presence.

The influx of al-Qaida into Lebanon was prompted by Syria's departure in April 2005 following the assassination in February that year of former Prime Minister of Rafiq al-Hariri, who was close to the Saudis.

The Saudis blame the Syrians for his assassination. Since that time, relations between Syria and Saudi Arabia have been tense.

The increasing presence of al-Qaida in Lebanon has strengthened the Salafists who are backed by the Sunnis against the Shiites in northern Lebanon. This has been done at the instigation of Saudi Arabia which supports the Salafists and their offshoot, the Wahhabis.

In turn, the Saudis have been backed by the United States in support of Lebanon's Sunni Prime Minister, Fuad Siniora, in partnership with Saad Hariri, who heads the Sunni Future Movement.

Egypt slams Israeli 'murder' in Gaza, summons ambassador

59 mins ago
AFP Mona Salem

Egypt condemned as "murder" Israel's Saturday air raids on Gaza that killed at least 205 Palestinians, opening its Rafah border crossing with the territory to allow the wounded through for treatment.

"We call for an immediate end to Israeli military operations. We cannot allow these attacks to continue. We cannot permit the murder of Palestinians," Foreign Minister Ahmed Abul Gheit said on state television.

Egypt, the only Arab state along with Jordan to have signed a peace deal with Israel, summoned Ambassador Shalom Cohen to demand an end to the bombardment that has also left hundreds wounded.

"We summoned the Israeli ambassador and we said we refuse this aggression and we demanded an immediate end to it," foreign ministry spokesman Hossam Zaki told AFP.

Abul Gheit telephoned his US, Russian and French counterparts -- Condoleezza Rice, Sergei Lavrov and Bernard Kouchner -- and urged them to call for an end to Israeli operations that should be "reciprocal" with Hamas, a statement said.

Earlier, President Hosni Mubarak condemned "the Israeli military aggression on the Gaza Strip and blames Israel, as an occupying force, for the victims and the wounded."

He ordered the Rafah crossing -- the only one bypassing Israel -- to be opened so that the wounded could be treated in Egyptian hospitals.

Dozens of wounded have already passed through, with hundreds more expected, state media reported.

A security official said helicopters were being sent to Rafah to fly some of the wounded to hospitals in Cairo.

Abdel Fadil Shusha, governor of North Sinai province, which adjoins Gaza, said he has sent six ambulances to the Rafah crossing.

Amr Mussa, secretary general of the Cairo-based Arab League, called an emergency meeting of Arab foreign ministers "to discuss the Israeli aggression on the Gaza Strip."

League ambassadors will meet on Saturday, and Arab foreign ministers on Sunday, the league said.

Mussa also asked Libya, as a member of the United National Security Council, to organise an emergency meeting on the subject of the Israeli raids.

Qatar, meanwhile, called for a summit of Arab League leaders in the coming days to "discuss the Israeli aggressions and savage raids on the Gaza Strip and to adopt an Arab position" on the matter, a foreign ministry spokesman said.

Egypt has reinforced security on its frontier with Gaza by deploying 500 anti-riot police, a security official told AFP.

On Friday, Egypt had already stepped up border security in case Gazans broke through the boundary fence and entered Egypt in their thousands, as happened in January when activists opened breaches with explosives.

Egypt mediated a six-months truce between Israel and the Islamic Hamas movement which controls the Gaza strip.

Since the truce expired on December 19, Egypt has been trying to broker its renewal and Israeli Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni visited Cairo for talks on Thursday.

While in Egypt, Livni vowed to strike back at Hamas as a sharp escalation of violence in Gaza dashed hopes of a new truce.

The spiritual guide of Egypt's Islamist opposition, the Muslim Brotherhood, condemned Saturday's raids as "a crime without comparison in history," adding that "the world looks on and does nothing."

Countering criticism that Egypt might have told Hamas Israel was not about to launch an attack, Abul Gheit said "Israel told the international community and its officials told the whole world of their intentions."

Abul Gheit accused Hamas of having aborted Egyptian efforts to avoid an Israeli attack on Gaza.

On Thursday, he had said the government was preparing to invite Hamas and its secular rival Fatah, which rules the occupied West Bank, to Cairo to resume dialogue.

Hamas boycotted reconciliation talks that were due to take place in Cairo in November, to protest the "political detentions" of some of its members in the West Bank by Fatah forces loyal to Palestinian president Mahmud Abbas.

Egypt slams Israeli 'murder' in Gaza, summons ambassador (http://uk.news.yahoo.com/18/20081227/twl-egypt-slams-israeli-murder-in-gaza-s-3cd7efd.html)

EU calls for ceasefire after Israel airstrike on Gaza
The European Union has called for an immediate ceasefire in Gaza after Israeli airstrikes killed and injured hundreds.

Last Updated: 2:10PM GMT 27 Dec 2008

The French presidency of the European Union called for an immediate halt to Israeli attacks on the Gaza Strip.

The EU presidency "expresses greatest concern at the escalation of violence in the Gaza Strip and deplores the very large number of civilian victims," a statement said.

Israeli war planes and combat helicopters pounded the Hamas-ruled Gaza Strip on Saturday, killing at least 155 people and prompting rocket fire from Palestinian militants that killed an Israeli, medics said.

"We are very concerned at the events in Gaza. We call for an immediate ceasefire and urge everybody to exert maximum restraint," a spokesman for European Union foreign policy chief Javier Solana said. "Everything must be done to renew the truce," he added.

In London a Foreign Office spokesman said: "We are deeply concerned by the reports of deaths and injuries of innocent civilians in the Gaza Strip following the recent Israeli air strikes."

The White House said that Hamas must end terrorist activities while urging Israel to avoid civilian casualties.

Russia's foreign ministry said that Moscow "believes it is necessary to halt immediately the large-scale acts of force against the Gaza Strip, which have already caused considerable victims and suffering amongst the Palestinian population".

Arab foreign ministers will meet in Cairo on Sunday or Monday to take a common position on Israeli raids while Libya, the only Arab country on the UN Security Council, will seek an urgent meeting of the council, Secretary-General Amr Moussa has said.

Egypt condemned Israel's attacks and called for renewed efforts to restore the truce with Hamas. Egypt also opened its border with the Gaza Strip to receive Palestinian wounded.

EU calls for ceasefire after Israel airstrike on Gaza (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/palestinianauthority/3981092/EU-calls-for-ceasefire-after-Israel-airstrike-on-Gaza.html)

World leaders call for halt to violence
Dec. 27, 2008
AP, jpost.com staff and Jonny Paul , THE JERUSALEM POST

World leaders appealed for a halt to violence in Israel and the Gaza Strip on Saturday after at least 190 Palestinians were killed in an IDF offensive against Hamas and dozens of rockets were launched into Israel in response, killing one and wounding several others.

UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-Moon said he was "deeply alarmed" by the vlence and bloodshed, and called on both sides to restore calm.

British Prime Minister Gordon Brown expressed concern with the situation in Gaza and called on Palestinian terrorists to halt rocket attacks on Israel.

"I call on Gazan militants to cease all rocket attacks on Israel immediately. These attacks are designed to cause random destruction and to undermine the prospects of peace talks led by Palestinian Authority President [Mahmoud] Abbas."

He said that while he understood the Israeli government's sense of obligation to its population," he was "deeply concerned" following the Israeli air strikes in the Gaza Strip and that Israel must "do everything in its power" to avoid civilian casualties.

Both Russia and the European Union called on both sides to cease hostility immediately, while France's President Nicolas Sarkozy went further in his criticism calling Israel's reaction to Hamas's provocations "disproportionate."

Quartet Representative Tony Blair said: "The terrible events and tragic loss of life in Gaza require, in the immediate term, the introduction of a genuine calm in which the rocket attacks aimed at killing Israeli civilians and the Israeli attacks on Gaza cease so that the suffering of the people, which is severe, can be lifted."

The White House also issued a statement calling to end the violence but put the onus on responsibility on Hamas, saying Israel had the right to defend its border.

Vatican spokesman Rev. Federico Lombardi also urged Israelis and Palestinians to renounce violence and seek a peaceful solution to their conflict, saying Israel's offensive will be a "very serious blow" to Hamas but could also cause many innocent victims and damage peace prospects in the Holy Land.

The Arab world reacted in shock to the attacks on the Gaza Strip, with scattered protests around the region and Egypt summoning the Israeli ambassador to express its condemnation of the air strikes.

In a statement from the president's office, Egypt condemned Israel's attacks and held it responsible for those killed and wounded and called for renewed efforts to restore the truce with Hamas.

"Egypt will forge ahead with its contacts to create a favorable atmosphere for renewing the truce and attaining inter-Palestinian reconciliation in a bid to end the suffering of the Palestinian people," the statement said.

But the Egyptian leadership was also highly critical of Hamas, with Foreign Minister Ahmed Abul Gheit saying the organization had ignored Israeli warnings that rocket attacks must stop.

Egypt also opened its border with the Gaza Strip to receive Palestinian wounded.

Egypt's closure of that border has been condemned by many in the Arab world for abetting Israel's siege of the Hamas-dominated Gaza Strip.

Arab League head Amr Moussa, meanwhile, called for an emergency meeting of all Arab foreign ministers in Cairo Sunday to address the crisis.

Hundreds of protesters in the Jordanian capital of Amman demonstrated in front of the nearby UN headquarters, waving Hamas banners and condemning Israel's strikes.

King Abdullah II called for an immediate halt "all military actions" in a statement issued by the royal palace, saying the attacks "targeted innocents among the civilians including women and children."

The king warned that "violence will only escalate the crisis and will not bring security to Israel."

In Beirut, dozens of youths hit the streets to express solidarity with the Palestinians and set fire to tires. Larger demonstrations were planned later in the day in Shiite suburbs and in south Lebanon's massive Ain el-Hilweh Palestinian refugee camp.

In Syria's al-Yarmouk camp, outside Damascus, dozens of Palestinians also protested the attack as well, vowing to continue fighting Israel.

"It's a Zionist holocaust, but it won't dissuade us from going on with our struggle to achieve our goals," said Ali Barakah, 42, one of the protesters.

World leaders call for halt to violence (http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?cid=1230111718169&pagename=JPost%2FJPArticle%2FPrinter)

Attack on Israel from Lebanon threatens 2nd front
By Arthur Max And Ibrahim Barzak, Associated Press Writers
Thu Jan 8, 6:39 pm ET

JERUSALEM – The U.N. suspended food deliveries to Gaza and the Red Cross accused Israel of blocking medical assistance after forces fired on aid workers, killing two, as the threat of a wider conflict emerged with Lebanon.

With violence unabated in Gaza, key Arab nations and Western powers reached an agreement Thursday on the main elements of a U.N. resolution calling for an immediate and durable cease-fire between the two sides. It must still be voted on by the U.N. Security Council.

Israel and Hamas are not party to the agreement and it will be up to them to stop their military activities. But the resolution — which would allow for the opening of border crossings to Gaza — was supported by the United States, Israel's closest ally, and Arab nations which have close ties to Hamas.

Militants in Lebanon fired several Katyusha rockets into northern Israel early Thursday, including one that tore through the roof of a nursing home and injured two people. Israel responded swiftly raising the possibility of a two-front conflict.

About 750 Palestinians and 12 Israelis have died in the 13 days of fighting in Gaza, an assault launched by Israel in an attempt to halt rocket fire from the territory, which is controlled by the militant group Hamas.

The conflict has left hundreds of thousands of Palestinians in Gaza increasingly desperate for food, water, fuel and medical assistance, and the situation was expected to worsen as humanitarian efforts fall victim to the fighting.

Simon Horner, of the European Commission aid department, said 60 percent of Gaza's 1.4 million people have no electricity, and fewer people every day have access to clean water. The sewage system is in danger of a failing, which could lead to an outbreak of disease, and medical services were under severe stress.

"The inability of the U.N. to provide assistance in this worsening humanitarian crisis is unacceptable," said Michele Montas, a U.N. spokeswoman.

She said according to reports, the attack on the U.N. truck, which killed two Palestinian workers, took place during a three-hour humanitarian lull announced by the Israel Defense Force. Four U.N Relief and Works Agency local staff have been killed in the conflict.

In Geneva, the International Committee of the Red Cross said it would restrict aid operations to Gaza City for at least one day after one of its convoys came under Israeli fire at the Netzarim crossing during the three-hour lull in fighting Thursday. One driver was lightly injured.

The World Health Organization said 21 Palestinian medical workers have been killed and 30 more injured since Israel began its offensive.

The Israeli military said in a statement that it cooperates closely with foreign aid groups to help civilians, and said Hamas uses civilians as human shields.

The international Red Cross also accused Israel of hindering rescuers from reaching areas devastated in the battles. Ambulances could not get to the Zeitoun neighborhood for four days because the Israelis had blocked access with large earthen barriers, officials said.

When they were allowed in Wednesday, the rescuers "found four small children next to their dead mothers in one of the houses. They were too weak to stand up on their own. One man was also found alive, too weak to stand up," the ICRC said in a rare public statement. "In all, there were at least 12 corpses lying on mattresses" in one of the houses.

During the lull in fighting Thursday, Palestinian health officials dug out 35 bodies from several areas around Gaza that had been engulfed by battles or struck by Israeli air attacks since Israel launched its offensive against Hamas, said Moaiya Hassanain of the Palestinian Health Ministry.

At least 24 Palestinians were killed in Gaza on Thursday, including three elderly people fleeing their home, according to Hassanain. He estimated the death toll around 750, and U.N officials say about half were civilians.

Two Israeli soldiers were killed in combat, raising the number of soldiers killed in Gaza to 10. Four Israelis, including one soldier, also have been killed by rockets fired at Israeli cities.

Gaza militants unleashed 24 missiles at southern Israel on Thursday, wounding four people.

Egyptian-led diplomatic cease-fire efforts showed no immediate breakthroughs. Israeli representatives concluded talks in Cairo and returned home, one day after Hamas leaders reviewed the French-Egyptian plan that might offer a role in Gaza to the rival Palestinian Authority.

Israel's government said Wednesday it viewed the proposal positively, but only if it guaranteed a halt to rocket fire on Israeli territory from Gaza and ensured Hamas cannot rearm. A Hamas official said the Islamic militant group was not ready to either accept or reject the plan.

But Mohammed Nazzal, a member of Hamas' Damascus-based political leadership, said, "We will never raise the white banner. I believe there are going to be fierce battles and the resistance factions will fight house to house, street to street and neighborhood to neighborhood."

Israel launched a ferocious air assault on Gaza Dec. 27 to disable Palestinian militants and cripple the Hamas movement.

The Israeli military had no immediate comment on the shooting at the U.N. aid vehicle. U.N. spokesman gotcha98 Abu Hasna said the truck was heading toward the Erez border crossing to pick up supplies and had coordinated the delivery with Israel.

"We've been coordinating with them (Israeli forces) and yet our staff continue to be hit and killed," said Chris Gunness of UNRWA, which has been helping Gaza refugees since 1949. he said.

The deaths follow Israel's killing of at least 39 people at a U.N. school where hundreds of people had sought refuge from the relentless air and ground attacks. Israel said its troops were returning fire toward a squad of militants who fired mortars at its troops, then ran toward the school to hide among the refugees.

Two hours after Thursday's shooting on the truck, Israel ordered a three-hour halt in its offensive for the second day in a row to allow aid into the territory. Israeli military spokesman Peter Lerner said 89 trucks of food were unloaded, along with 83,000 gallons (315,000 liters) of fuel.

The two 3-hour breaks in the offensive provided rare windows for Gazans to buy from the dwindling supplies in the shops, and for rescuers to scour the ruins of entire neighborhoods for unreported casualties. Hassanain, the health official, said 20 more bodies were uncovered during Wednesday's mini-truce, in addition to the 35 found Thursday.

Israel had been braced for a resumption of hostilities on its northern border, anticipating that Hezbollah guerrillas in Lebanon would try to come to the aid of its Gaza ally, Hamas.

Nonetheless, the four rockets that hit the town of Nahariya created panic. "We are all a bit traumatized at the moment," said Sarit Arieli, 44, standing outside the nursing home that had been hit a few hours earlier.

Hezbollah, which fought Israel to a standstill in a 34-day war in 2006 and is now a key faction in the Lebanese government, denied it was responsible for the rockets. Speculation focused on small Palestinian groups, which have rocketed Israel twice since the end of the Lebanon conflict. Lebanese Prime Minister Fuad Saniora condemned the attack.

Israeli leaders tried to keep a lid on northern tensions, calling it a one-time incident and welcoming Lebanon's condemnation.

Attack on Israel from Lebanon threatens 2nd front (http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090108/ap_on_re_mi_ea/ml_israel_palestinians)

Government in Turkey turns squeamish on defense ties with Israel
January 7, 2009

ANKARA — The increasingly Islamist leadership in Turkey has been placed on the defenseive by the parliament over extensive defense relations with Israel.

The government of Prime Minister Recep Erdogan has denied signing weapons deals with Israel during its invasion of the Gaza Strip, following condemnations of the Jewish state.

"There are no contracts or agreements in the time being with the Israeli side," Turkish Defense Minister Vecdi Gonul said.

Gonul and other senior officials have been questioned by parliament over reports of an Israeli-Turkish defense project, Middle East Newsline reported. Under the reported $160 million deal, Israel would supply airborne reconnaissance systems to Turkey's military.

"This was years ago, and its articles are irrelevant to the regrettable developments in Gaza," Gonul said on Jan. 6.

Turkey's media have reported that Israel and Turkey were engaged in $1.8 billion of defense projects in 2007. The projects were said to include unmanned aerial vehicles, airborne systems and a main battle tank upgrade.

"No military agreement was signed [with Israel] during our governments," Gonul said.

The Israeli-Hamas war has sparked condemnations of the Jewish state by Erdogan and parliament. Over the last week, hundreds of Turkish parliamentarians have resigned from a friendship association with Israel.

At the same time, Turkey has been cooperating in U.S.-led efforts to block weapons shipments to and from Iran. Ankara has reported seizing an Iranian shipment to Venezuela believed to contain equipment that could produce explosives. The shipment was seized in the Mediterranean port of Mersin.

"Experts from Turkey's Atomic Institute determined there were no traces of radioactive material, but said the equipment was sufficient to establish an explosives lab," Suleiman Tosun, a Turkish customs official, said. "We have asked the military to send experts to determine whether to resume the shipment."

Government in Turkey turns squeamish on defense ties with Israel (http://www.worldtribune.com/worldtribune/WTARC/2009/me_turkey0017_01_07.asp)

Russia plans navy bases in Libya, Syria,Yemen
01.17.09

In a sign of Moscow's growing foreign policy ambitions, military official says plan to be implemented within a few years 'without question'

Russia has decided to establish naval bases in Libya, Syria and Yemen within a few years, Itar-Tass news agency quoted military officials as saying on Friday, in a sign of Moscow's growing foreign policy ambitions.

"It is difficult to say how much time it will take to create the bases for our fleet in these countries, but within a few years this will be done without question," a military official was quoted as saying.

"The political decision on this question has been taken," the official said. A spokesman for the Russian navy could not immediately be reached for comment.

A senior general said it was too early to name any foreign ports that could host Russian bases.

"There are negotiations conducted with foreign governments. Such publications (on bases) may have a negative effect on the way of these talks," Itar-Tass quoted the Russian army's deputy chief of staff, Colonel-General Anatoly Nogovitsyn, as saying.

The Kremlin is seeking to play a more assertive role in world politics and has been using its military to project its new-found confidence beyond its borders.

Analysts have said that the Syrian port of Tartus could be revived as a Russian naval base. During the Cold War, the Soviet navy had a permanent presence in the Mediterranean, using Tartus as a supply point.

Russian media reported that opening a naval base in the Libyan port of Benghazi was among the main issues discussed during Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi's visit to Moscow in October last year.

Nogovitsyn said it was unclear when Russian naval bases abroad could open. "No one can forecast when this problem will be solved," he told Itar-Tass. "We need permanent bases, and this is very costly. You have to thoroughly calculate it all."

Russia had to vacate the Cam Ranh base in Vietnam in 2002 because its rent was becoming a burden for the state coffers.

"Now we have learnt to count our money," Nogovitsyn said.

Russia plans navy bases in Libya, Syria,Yemen (http://www.ynetnews.com/Ext/Comp/ArticleLayout/CdaArticlePrintPreview/1,2506,L-3657463,00.html)
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

With the other bases Russia has, or has planned, this almost circles Israel from the North, South, East, and West. Biblical prophecy will come true, no matter what man thinks!!

Iran, Russia to Boost Defense Cooperation
2009-02-15

TEHRAN (FNA)- Tehran and Moscow are to review ways to enhance military cooperation during an upcoming visit to Russia by Iranian Defense Minister Brigadier General Mostafa Mohammad Najjar.

According to the Iranian defense ministry, Najjar is scheduled to travel to Moscow on Monday to discuss military and technical cooperation and review implementation of agreements already signed by the two countries.

He is also slated to pay a visit to Russian defense industries.

The Iranian defense minister is also due to discuss possibility for more military agreements between Tehran and Moscow in his meetings with Russian officials.

Tehran and Moscow have expanded ties in bilateral, regional and international grounds and Iran is one of Russia's defense products customers.

Iranian defense minister had earlier said that Tehran would elaborate on the potential Russian sale of advanced surface-to-air missiles when the occasion is ripe.

He added that Iran would never hesitate in purchasing any cutting-edge equipment that it deems necessary for its defense, while noting that any new developments in this field would be made public when the time is right.

His remarks came as Washington pressed Russia to end the confusion surrounding the delivery of the strategic S-300 missile system to Iran.

The advanced version of the S-300 missile system, called S-300PMU1 (SA-20 Gargoyle), has a range of over 150 km (over 100 miles) and can intercept ballistic missiles and aircraft at low and high altitudes.

The reports that Russia had started to supply S-300 systems to Iran and the Russian state-run arms exporter Rosoboronexport's confirmation that it is supplying Iran with a number of defensive systems, have raised concerns in the US and Israel which have consistently refused to rule out the possibility of military action against Tehran.

The systems could greatly improve Iranian defenses against any air strike on its strategically important sites, including nuclear facilities.

Iran recently took delivery of 29 Russian-made Tor-M1 air defense missile systems under a $700-million contract signed in late 2005. Russia has also trained Iranian Tor-M1 specialists, including radar operators and crew commanders.

Iran, Russia to Boost Defense Cooperation (http://english.farsnews.com/newstext.php?nn=8711271110)

Saudi-Egyptian-Syrian summit in Riyadh Wednesday
March 9, 2009

The summit conference planned in Riyadh for Wednesday, March 11, between the rulers of Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Syria - and possibly Qatar - may be the Obama administration's first Middle East breakthrough, according to Washington and Middle East sources.

Many hopes hang on this event.

The US president and secretary of state Hillary Clinton see it as ushering in the parting of the ways between Syria and Iran as a result of their overtures to Damascus.

From the regional perspective, it is meant to signal Syrian ruler Bashar Assad's reacceptance by the moderate Arab camp.

The Saudi King Abdullah and Egyptian president Hosni Mubarak hope their meeting with Assad Wednesday will starting isolating Iran in the region and knock over the power bases it has built up in such places as the Gaza Strip.

They are optimistic, military sources report, because Saturday, March 7 Hamas began commandeering the mosques and charities owned by Jihad Islami, the Palestinian terrorist militia created and funded by Tehran. By Monday night, 80 of its mosques and institutions had been appropriated, ending the first day in weeks without Palestinian missile fire against Israel.

Official circles in Washington, Cairo and Riyadh read this crackdown as evidence that Damascus is willing to begin wresting the control of Palestinian radical organizations from Iran.

They also note that Khaled Meshaal, the Hamas leader based in Damascus, has been muzzled since his hero's welcome in Tehran. Downgrading Syrian ties with Iran's Lebanese proxy, Hizballah, would be welcomed too.

While optimistic, none of three partners can tell how far Assad will take his moves against Iran. They are not even sure if they are genuine or part of a sting operation with Tehran.

The outcome of the Riyadh summit and its aftermath are eagerly awaited for clues to the Syrian ruler's intentions. For now, the situation is delicate; the three or four summiteers have yet to fix a final date for their conference.

Jeremiah to today's Israel: No 2-state solution!

wnd.com

Presently, there is an unprecedented push for peace in the Mideast. President Obama, Pope Benedict XVI, along with a significant host of other powerful world leaders, clamor once and for all for a two-state solution. They have heightened concern that the writing is on the 403-mile wall currently protecting Israeli's from Palestinian terror that a Middle East war is imminent.

As the clock rapidly ticks toward what will likely be the prophetic Psalm 83 showdown, Israel circles the wagons in preparation for a multi-front confederate conflict with its ancient enemies, and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu loosens his grip from the thorny Obama olive branch of "Engagement."

Currently, the international prescription for two states comprised of Jews and Palestinians living autonomously and peacefully side by side requires Israel to destroy outposts, freeze settlements, forfeit land acquired after 1967, divide Jerusalem and allow Palestinian refugees to homestead the Holy Land. These refugees number in the millions, cannot obtain citizenship in the surrounding Arab nations and represent a second-generation population that hates and blames the Jews for their impoverished existence. The ploy of Israel's enemies has been to banner the plight of these Palestinians as the justification for Islamic jihad against Israel and her supporters.

It is quite apparent that the world has become empathetic to the Palestinian plight but apathetic to God's foreign policy contained in Genesis 12:3 and the one-state solution prescribed in Jeremiah 12:14-17. Genesis 12:3 bestows blessings upon those that bless the Israeli descendants of Abraham but conversely must curse those populations that oppose them. Jeremiah 12:15-17 follows stride by declaring that God would have compassion on the pro-Israel populations, but "will utterly pluck up and destroy" Israel's neighbors who fail to operate in compliance with God's roadmap for peace.

God's peace plan

The Bible foretold in Isaiah 11:11, Ezekiel 37:12, Deuteronomy 30:3-5 and elsewhere of a time when the Jews would be brought back into the Promised Land from the nations of the world. This regathering began 61 years ago on May 14, 1948, and is ongoing today. Possessing omniscient foresight, God foreknew that an Arab-Israeli conflict would erupt as a result.

Jeremiah 12:14-17 tells us that as the time drew near for the return of the Jews into Israel the landscape of the Middle East would undergo a geopolitical facelift as God intended to restore Arabs, Persians and Jews back into the historical homes of their ancestral heritages. After the fall of the Ottoman Empire in 1917, we see this turn of geopolitical events take place as one by one the Arab, Persian and Jewish states emerged.

Afghanistan 1919
Egypt 1922
Saudi Arabia & Iraq 1932
Iran 1935
Lebanon 1943
Syria & Jordan 1946
Israel 1948

Jeremiah's passages make it clear that God would import the Jews into Israel and export the Arabs and Persians out of Israel when the time came for the implementation of God's one-state solution. Jeremiah 12:14 refers to the Arab and Persian populations as "My evil neighbors who touch the inheritance which I have caused My people Israel to inherit," alluding to the Promised Land given to the Jewish Patriarch Abraham in Genesis 15:18. As stated prior, God intended to have compassion on those populations that would operate in compliance with His divine plan.

As I point out in my book, "Isralestine the Ancient Blueprints of the Future Middle East," many predominately Islamic populations will fail to comply. These nations and/or terrorist entities are described in Psalm 83 and Ezekiel 38 and include but are not limited to: Palestinians, Syrians, Hezbollah, Hamas, Iranians, Lebanese, Jordanians, Saudis, Egyptians, Libyans and Turks.

The Saudi peace plan

For even your brothers, the house of your father, Even they have dealt treacherously with you; Yes, they have called a multitude after you. Do not believe them, Even though they speak smooth words to you. (Jeremiah 12:6; NKJV)

In the above passage Jeremiah appears to issue a stern warning to the modern-day state of Israel not to believe the smooth words of the descendants of their ancestral brothers. Without going into a detailed Bible study, the abbreviated interpretation is likely as follows:

Tents of Edom - Palestinians, Southern Jordan
Ishmaelites - Saudi Arabia (Ishmael Father of Arabs)
Moab - Palestinians, Central Jordan
Hagrites - Hagarenes - Egyptians
Gebal - Hezbollah, Lebannon
Ammon - Palestinians, Jordan
Philistia - Hamas, Gaza Strip
Amalek - Arabs of Siani
Tyre - Lebannon, Hezbollah
Assyria - Syria, Northern Iraq

The subjects of the prophecy for the most part are the Jews, Saudis and Palestinians. The "brothers" of the Jews from the "house of" their Hebrew fathers Abraham, Isaac and Jacob were Ishmael and Esau. Ishmael was the half brother of Isaac, and Esau was the twin brother of Jacob. Jacob was renamed Israel in Genesis 32:28, and Esau was also referred to as Edom in Genesis 36:1, 9. Both Ishmael in Genesis 21:18 and Esau in Genesis 25:23 were promised to father nations. Ishmael is generally associated today with Saudi Arabia, and Esau with the Palestinians.

The "multitude" formed by the "brothers" Ishmael and Edom is most likely the confederacy tabled below contained in Psalm 83 that ultimately seeks to destroy the modern-day Jewish state, "that the name Israel be remembered no more" (Psalm 83:4).

The "smooth words" are deceptive and the Jews are cautioned not to trust them. They are likely penned in the Saudi Mideast peace plan initiated at the Beirut Summit of the Arab League in March of 2002. This Saudi peace initiative calls for a two-state solution that embraces and strongly favors the Palestinian plight. In a nutshell it requires Israel to withdraw from the territories acquired in the aftermath of the "Six-Day" war in June of 1967 to provide for the establishment of a Palestinian state with East Jerusalem as its capital. Furthermore, it calls for the return of millions of Palestinian refugees into Israel. In return, Arab states, like those listed in Psalm 83, would establish normal relations with Israel.

Sounds pretty smooth on the surface, but in application it puts Israel in harm's way. Surrendering land like the Golan Heights would compromise Israel's security from external attacks, and assimilating refugees who hate Israel would subject the Jewish state to terrorism and turmoil from within. The bottom line is that the Arabs don't want peace with the Jews; they want another Arab state called Palestine and they feel the only way to ultimately achieve this goal is to destroy modern-day Israel. The Saudi two-state solution puts the enemies of Israel one step closer to the kill.

Jeremiah appears to be warning his descendant Jewish brothers and sisters of today to Say NO to the Saudi two-state solution!

Ankara moves toward ‘privileged partnership’ with Moscow
22/10/09

Turkey, which has already announced its intention to hold a joint cabinet meeting with Russia similar to those recently held with Iraq and Syria, hopes to hold such a meeting with its Black Sea neighbor in early December.

“We have proposed a similar step [to the joint cabinet meetings with Syria and Iraq] with Russia, but there is nothing being implemented at the moment,” Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan said last week before departing for a visit to Iraq, during which he and the nine ministers accompanying him held a joint cabinet meeting with the Iraqi government. Erdoğan and his Iraqi counterpart, Nouri al-Maliki, co-chaired the meeting of the Turkish-Iraqi High-Level Strategic Cooperation Council.

Earlier last week, a ministerial-level meeting of the Turkish-Syrian High-Level Strategic Cooperation Council was held in the Syrian city of Aleppo and the Turkish city of Gaziantep. At the time, Erdoğan said an agreement to initiate a similar mechanism with Russia was signed when Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin visited Ankara in August, when Turkey and Russia signed about 20 agreements on cooperation in a number of areas, including, most notably, energy. “We will put into force a similar mechanism with Russia.”

The timing of the meeting planned to be held with Russia has been found particularly interesting as it comes just before a December summit of the European Council. Observers suggest that the planned meeting with Russia is a message to European Union members who offer a “privileged partnership” to Turkey instead of full EU membership. Turkey will show how a privileged partnership is constituted through the meeting with Russia, the same observers argue. Turkey firmly rejects any option that falls short of full EU membership.

The EU opened accession talks with Ankara -- an EU candidate since 1999 -- in October 2005, but they have been progressing slowly amid opposition from France and Germany. The unresolved Cyprus dispute and a slowdown of reforms in Turkey are other factors hampering the accession process.

French President Nicolas Sarkozy and German Chancellor Angela Merkel are the most high-profile European politicians opposed to Turkey's accession. Sarkozy claims Turkey does not belong in Europe, while Merkel promotes privileged partnership, an option Ankara categorically rejects. In Berlin in May, Merkel and Sarkozy made a joint statement declaring that they shared a common position regarding Turkey's accession to the EU, in that it should be offered a privileged partnership, not full EU membership.

The first step toward holding a joint cabinet meeting with Russia was taken on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly in New York in September, with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov responding positively to a proposal by his counterpart, Ahmet Davutoğlu. Moves to organize the joint meeting have been continuing since then. The meeting between Russia and Turkey is planned to be held at a ministerial level. Meetings with Iraq and Syria, on the other hand, are chaired by the prime ministers.

Ankara moves toward ‘privileged partnership’ with Moscow (http://www.todayszaman.com/tz-web/news-190549-100-ankara-moves-toward-privileged-partnership-with-moscow.html)

Gül discusses Karabakh dispute with Medvedev
21 October 2009
CELIL SAĞIR

President Abdullah Gül had a phone conversation with Russian President Dmitry Medvedev about the situation in the Caucasus on Monday, sources at the Turkish Presidency announced.

President Gül reportedly asked Russian President Medvedev to boost efforts to solve the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, a territorial dispute between Azerbaijan and Armenia.

During the phone conversation, Gül asked the Russian president to accelerate the process to find a lasting solution for the Nagorno-Karabakh dispute, adding that the determinant actor in the South Caucasus is Russia. Presidential sources labeled the Gül-Medvedev talk a “long, comprehensive and useful conversation to make stability and peace in the South Caucasus dominant.”

Pointing to the troubled South Caucasus region, political commentators argue that even positive gestures could destabilize the region. Amid a growing crisis with Azerbaijan due to the Turkey-Armenia rapprochement, President Gül is working hard to push international actors to work for a solution to the problem.

While the process of the ratification of the protocols to normalize relations between Turkey and Armenia is in progress in both the Turkish and Armenian parliaments, President Gül also met with the Minsk Group's French, Russian and American co-chairs, who have striven for 17 years to solve the problem, during October to ask them to intensify peace negotiations to find a solution for the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict.

During the conversation, Medvedev and Gül also reportedly spoke of Turkish-Armenian relations, and Gül explained how the Karabakh conflict impacted relations between Azerbaijan, Armenia and Turkey. “We need your support. We want you to continue your support of the preservation of the peace and stability in the region,” Gül said to Medvedev. In turn, Medvedev promised Gül that Russia would always support peace efforts in the region. Gül and Medvedev also spoke of the South Stream gas project, which is planned to transfer Russian gas under the Black Sea. Medvedev thanked Gül for allowing the use of Turkey's territorial waters in the Black Sea.

Gül also recently addressed the same issues while speaking with US President Barack Obama. In addition, during his visit to France Gül asked French President Nicolas Sarkozy to do what he could to accelerate the Azeri-Armenian peace process. “Solve the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, and let's open the borders together. Let the honor of this be yours,” Gül was quoted as saying to Sarkozy. Süleyman Kurt Ankara

Gül discusses Karabakh dispute with Medvedev (http://www.todayszaman.com/tz-web/news-190549-100-ankara-moves-toward-privileged-partnership-with-moscow.html)

Russian bombers 'intercepted in British airspace'
By Barry Neild, CNN
March 25, 2010 12:11 p.m. EDT

London, England (CNN) -- Rare photos of Russian strategic bomber jets purportedly intercepted in British airspace show Moscow's war machine is becoming increasingly bold, analysts said Thursday as Russia denied any territorial violations.

Britain's Ministry of Defence released images it said were taken earlier this month of two Russian Tu-160 bombers -- known as Blackjacks by NATO forces -- as they entered UK airspace near the Outer Hebrides islands off Scotland's northwest coast.

It said the March 10 incident, which resulted in crystal clear images of the planes against clear blue skies and a dramatic sunset, was one of many intercepts carried out by British Royal Air Force crews in just over 12 months.

"This is not an unusual incident, and many people may be surprised to know that our crews have successfully scrambled to intercept Russian aircraft on more than 20 occasions since the start of 2009," Wing Cdr. Mark Gorringe, of the RAF's 111 Squadron, said in a statement.

The RAF said two of its Tornado fighter jets from its base at Leuchars, on Scotland's east coast, were dispatched to tail the Russian Blackjacks as they approached the western Isle of Lewis.

"The Tornados shadowed the Russians as they flew south, then the Blackjacks turned north, just short of the Northern Ireland coast, and eventually left UK airspace," the statement said.

"After four hours, the Tornado crews stood down and returned to Leuchars."

Several of the images show the name Vasily Reshetnikov in Russian lettering near the cockpit of one plane. Reshetnikov was a celebrated Soviet pilot who fought on the Eastern Front in World War II.

Russian military authorities on Thursday confirmed their aircraft had been in the area, but denied any violation of British airspace.

"Our planes fly in strict accordance with the international rules government the use of airspace over neutral waters without violating the borders of foreign countries," Defense Ministry spokesman Lieutenant-Colonel Vladimir Drik told CNN.

"The routine flights by the Tu-160 missile carriers took place in accordance with those conditions on March 10. They did not violate British airspace, and objective control materials confirm that."

Experts say regardless of the exact flight paths, the increased sorties by Russian aircrafts in international airspace show Moscow is flexing its muscles as it re-emerges as a global military player.

"Russia is now an oil exporting state so they've got more money to spend on their armed forces after the 1990s when they were bankrupt," defense analyst Tim Ripley told CNN.

Ripley said the increase in air activity began shortly before Russia's brief 2008 territorial skirmish with Georgia, but while it was a clear show of strength, it did not represent sinister intent.

While ties between Russia and the UK have been strained in recent years, Ripley said talks with Washington that look set to result in a new arms control deal were a clearer indication of Moscow's global military outlook.

Russian bombers 'intercepted in British airspace' (http://wwwgotcha125n.com/2010/WORLD/europe/03/25/russia.uk.intercepts/index.html?hpt=C1)

By the way there is video, on the news page of the intercept.

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Theology => Prophecy - Current Events => Topic started by: Shammu on September 28, 2007, 12:29:26 AM