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Pakistan considering a state of emergency
August 09, 2007
MATTHEW PENNINGTON
Associated Press

ISLAMABAD–The Pakistan government of embattled President Gen. Pervez Musharraf says it may impose a state of emergency because of "external and internal threats" and deteriorating law and order in the volatile northwest near the Afghan border.

The news came hours after Musharraf abruptly announced he was cancelling a planned trip to Kabul, Afghanistan, today to attend a U.S.-backed tribal peace council aimed at curtailing cross-border militancy by the Taliban and Al Qaeda.

Tariq Azim, Pakistan's minister of state for information, said the emergency declaration is being considered because some sentiment coming from the United States – including from Democratic presidential hopeful Barack Obama – over the possibility of U.S. military action against Al Qaeda in Pakistan "has started alarm bells ringing and has upset the Pakistani public."

The remarks helped trigger a 17-minute phone call early today from U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice to Musharraf, a senior State Department official said. Pakistan is a key U.S. anti-terrorism ally.

Musharraf's decision to cancel his participation on the eve of the gathering in Kabul was widely interpreted not only as a snub to Afghan President Hamid Karzai, but also as a rebuke to the Bush administration, which had enthusiastically backed the idea of the council nearly a year ago while the two leaders were visiting Washington.

A Musharraf aide said the president would meet his cabinet later today. Pakistani television networks reported that a declaration of an emergency was imminent, although senior officials said no final decision had been made.

Despite Azim's remarks, it appeared the motivation for a declaration of an emergency would be the domestic political woes of Musharraf, who took power in a 1999 coup.

His popularity has dwindled and his standing has been badly shaken by a failed bid to oust the country's chief justice – an independent-minded judge likely to rule on expected legal challenges to Musharraf's bid to seek a new five-year presidential term this fall.

During a state of emergency, the government can restrict the freedom to move, engage in political activities or form groups, and impose other limits such as restricting parliament's right to make laws or even dissolving parliament.

"These are only unconfirmed reports although the possibility of imposition of emergency cannot be ruled out and has recently been talked about and discussed, keeping in mind some external and internal threats and the law and order situation," Azim told Associated Press.

"I cannot say that it will be tonight, tomorrow or later. We hope that it does not happen. But we are going through difficult circumstances so the possibility of an emergency cannot be ruled out."

Azim also referred to recent Pakistani action against militants in northwestern border areas that he said resulted in many soldiers' deaths.

Pakistan considering a state of emergency (http://www.thestar.com/printArticle/244604)

Pakistan, Nukes, & the Fall of Musharraf

From Barbara Starr
CNN Washington Bureau

WASHINGTON (CNN) -- U.S. military intelligence officials are urgently assessing how secure Pakistan's nuclear weapons would be in the event President Gen. Pervez Musharraf were replaced as the nation's leader, CNN has learned.

 Key questions in the assessment include who would control Pakistan's nuclear weapons after a shift in power. The United States is pressuring Musharraf, who took control in a 1999 coup, not to declare a state of emergency as he faces growing political opposition.

Three U.S. sources have independently confirmed details of the intelligence review to CNN but would not allow their names to be used because of the sensitivity of the matter.

The sources include military officers and intelligence community analysts.

The assessment is part of a broader review of the military and security situation in Pakistan.

Officials say that Pakistan and its nuclear weapons are always a high intelligence priority for the United States.

The current review is a result of recent developments in that country, including the prospect that Musharraf could still declare a national emergency that would give him sweeping powers.

 Although the Pakistani government ruled out the declaration Thursday, the three sources told CNN that the United States thinks Musharraf may still impose those measures.

Musharraf was elected to president in a 2002 vote that was widely viewed as rigged. His five-year presidential term expires in November and he is seeking to retain his position as president and army chief. Pakistani elections are scheduled sometime around the turn of the year.

U.S. analysts are watching current Pakistani troop movements closely to see whether Musharraf is making any moves that could indicate he is about to impose emergency measures. It appears that in recent weeks a large number of troops left the Kashmir region to go to the tribal regions along the Afghan border, officials say.

Afghan officials have accused Pakistan of allowing Taliban and al Qaeda fighters to regroup and carve out a new safe haven along Pakistan's largely lawless northwestern frontier.

The United States has full knowledge about the location of Pakistan's nuclear weapons, according to the U.S. assessment.

But the key questions, officials say, are what would happen and who would control the weapons in the hours after any change in government in case Musharraf were killed or overthrown.

Musharraf controls the loyalty of the commanders and senior officials in charge of the nuclear program, but those loyalties could shift at any point, officials say.

The United States is not certain who might start controlling nuclear launch codes and weapons if that shift in power were to happen.

There is also a growing understanding according to the U.S. analysis that Musharraf's control over the military remains limited to certain top commanders and units, raising worries about whether he can maintain control over the long term.

The U.S. officials also say one of the key problems for the U.S. military is what restrictions on U.S.-Pakistani military cooperation could be imposed if Musharraf were to impose heavy security restrictions in his country.

Pakistan, Nukes, & the Fall of Musharraf (http://www.cnn.com/2007/US/08/10/pakistan.nuclear/index.html)

The real wild card here is India. You can bet that if Musharraf is deposed we will see a deliberate military response by that country. India's government knows full well that they are the likely first victims of a smuggled nuclear warhead from Pakistan in the event of a collapsed government there, so they've a vested interest in seeing those weapons eliminated or secured - and they'd likely do so with extreme aggression.

So much these days is unmistakably prophetic....

This world in on the brink of an all out world war. I have NEVER in my life seen so much global animosity. I have seen animosity! But nothing like we are seeing now!!

Wars/rumors of war are all over the place. This world is starting to circle the drain and satan is going with it. 

The more I hear, the more sure I am that we are going home soon.

Pakistan is 'world's most dangerous place'

Describing Pakistan as ‘the world's most dangerous place’, a leading British journal has claimed that two things could still help arrest its slide into anarchy - a credible investigation into Benazir Bhutto's murder and a fair election but both seem improbable.

 The Economist noted that Pakistan President Pervez Musharraf's willingness to let a couple of British policemen help the inquiry ‘is unlikely to produce this’ (help arrest its slide into anarchy).

It said for too long, Musharraf has been allowed to pay lip-service to democratic forms, while the United States has winked at his blatant disdain for the substance. The justification has been the pre-eminent importance of ‘stability’ in ‘the world's most dangerous place’.

"It is time to impress upon him (Musharraf) and the generals still propping him up that democracy is not the alternative to stability, it is Pakistan's only hope," The Economist stressed.

The journal said that every time a bomb goes off in Pakistan, people believe that one of the country's own spooks lit the fuse. Until there has been a convincing purge of the military-intelligence apparatus, Pakistan will never know true stability.

"Sadly, there seemed little hope that the security forces will abandon the habit of a lifetime and allow truly fair elections," it said, adding, ‘The delay in the voting - opposed by both main Opposition parties - has seen as part of its plan to rig the results. The violence that has scarred the country since Ms Bhutto's assassination may intensify’.

The journal observed that the ‘army may be tempted to impose another state of Emergency, or it may cling on to ensure that the election produces the result it wants - a weak and pliable coalition of the PPP and Musharraf's loyalists’.

Pakistan elects new president
Widower of slain Bhutto wins in landslide

The widower of slain former leader Benazir Bhutto will succeed Pervez Musharraf as president of Pakistan after winning a landslide victory in Saturday's election.

Partial results announced by officials after separate votes in the federal and provincial assemblies show that Asif Ali Zardari won an overwhelming majority of the votes.

Pro-Zardari lawmakers, some in tears, shouted "Long live Bhutto!" as the results came in. The couple's two jubilant but tearful daughters, one carrying a portrait of their late mother, smiled and hugged friends in the gallery.

But Saturday also brought a brutal reminder of the threats to the nuclear-armed nation's stability when a suicide car bomber killed at least 13 people and wounded dozens in the northwestern city of Peshawar.

Already head of the main ruling party, Zardari becomes one of the most powerful civilian leaders in Pakistan's troubled 61-year history. Last month, he marshaled a coalition that forced longtime U.S. ally Musharraf to quit as head of state.

Zardari, a novice leader stained by past corruption allegations, takes over at a critical time for this volatile, nuclear-armed Muslim nation of more than 160 million.

Pakistan's economy is crumbling and Saturday's attack was the latest in a string of suicide bombings usually claimed by Islamic militants who have steadily gained strength since Pakistan joined the U.S. war on terrorism in 2001.

Washington is pressing Pakistan to eradicate Taliban and Al Qaeda havens near its border with Afghanistan. A U.S.-led ground attack said to have killed at least 15 in Pakistan Wednesday sparked outrage and embarrassed Zardari's party.

As expected, Zardari trounced Muubgone19 Hussain, a senator from the pro-Musharraf party routed in February parliamentary elections, and Saeed-uz-Zaman Siddiqui, a former judge nominated by the opposition party of another ex-prime minister, Nawaz Sharif.