Wars And Rumors Of Wars

[Shammu]

Russia digs in 20 miles from Georgian capital
Rival forces observe an uneasy roadside truce as they come face to face
August 17, 2008

Twenty-four hours after Condoleezza Rice, the US secretary of state, flew into Georgia and demanded the immediate departure of Russian troops, they were on the move yesterday.

However, instead of retreating north into South Ossetia, where Moscow-backed separatists have been fighting to break away from Georgia, the Russians headed south towards the capital, Tbilisi. They came to a halt only 20 miles outside the city.

A convoy of two Russian tanks, several armoured personnel carriers mounted with heavy machineguns and Russian flags and a few trucks filled with troops took up positions along the main road from Tbilisi to Gori, Stalin’s home town near the South Ossetian border.

The incursion was the deepest into Georgia proper since hostilities began 10 days ago. The troops dug foxholes along a hill only 30 minutes’ drive from the capital, watched by heavily armed Georgian soldiers and police. Men from the rival camps who had been shelling one another a few days earlier suddenly found themselves too close for comfort.

At first, the soot-covered Russian soldiers sat idly on their vehicles, cradling AK47s under the heat of a searing sun. Then a Georgian soldier in US-issued camouflage walked up to them carrying his national flag. Within minutes the two sides were chatting and exchanging cigarettes and water.

“It’s beautiful here,” said one Russian officer as he stepped out of a jeep with tinted windows. “This is a place where one should come on holiday, not war.”

The bonhomie was misleading, however. Some of the Georgian soldiers were visibly stunned to see a foreign army so deep inside their country.

They seemed alarmed that Russian military operations still had not ended four days after President Dmitry Medvedev announced that he had halted them.

The previous day Rice had all but forced Mikhail Saakashvili, the Georgian president, to sign a ceasefire that sealed his defeat. Yesterday Medvedev added his signature.

The document, drafted under the supervision of President Nicolas Sarkozy of France and amended by the Kremlin, allows the Russian military to remain in South Ossetia and Abkhazia, the two breakaway regions that Saakashvili had vowed to return to Tbilisi’s control.

Even more damaging for the Georgian leader’s political prospects, it gives the Russians the right to remain several miles inside Georgian territory to await an international peace-keeping force - which could take weeks to assemble.

Since the defeated and demoralised Georgian army pulled out of South Ossetia last week, the Russians have secured or destroyed its military installations and arms dumps.

By yesterday afternoon they had moved back towards South Ossetia but were still positioned on the outskirts of Gori and in the Black Sea port of Poti, where they have blown up several Georgian coastguard vessels.

South Ossetian paramilitaries were also still active in the west of the country where they were reported to be looting Georgian villages. They have been accused of ethnic cleansing, of torching villages and, in several cases, of abducting young women.

The Kremlin gave its strongest signal yet that both South Ossetia and Abkhazia would be integrated into Russia. Saakashvili’s future as president seemed far less certain.

He was vilified by the Kremlin as a US stooge before hostilities broke out. The Russians are now bent on seeing him removed from power. Moscow has dispatched investigators from the prosecutor’s office to South Ossetia to gather testimony that it hopes to use in a criminal case against the president.

In Tbilisi many last week thought Saakashvili’s fate was already sealed. While he is credited with turning round Georgia’s economy and modernising the small state, he is expected to face a furious backlash over the failed military action.

Russia digs in 20 miles from Georgian capital

[Shammu]

Fear of Russian 'protection' spreads to Ukraine and the Baltic

Sunday August 17 2008

Part of Russia's justification for wresting control of South Ossetia from Georgia is that many of the region's residents hold Russian passports. The Kremlin was therefore - so it claims - protecting its citizens from Georgian aggression.

That line sends ripples of alarm throughout the former Soviet Union, where many states that became independent in 1991 took sizable Russian populations with them. Ukraine, Latvia, Estonia, Moldova and Kazakhstan, for example, have much to fear if the Kremlin sees their hosting of a Russian diaspora as a licence to ignore their borders.

The problem is not just one of nationality. Russianness is an elastic concept, covering millions who speak Russian as their first language but who, in the Soviet era, were classified as Belarussians, Ukrainians, Jews or Ossetians. To make matters worse, many of the areas where Russians or Russian-speakers predominate are the subject of territorial disputes that pre-date even the USSR.

Officially, 17.3 per cent of people living in Ukraine are ethnic Russians (around 8 million people). But more have Russian as a first language and they are concentrated in the east of the country, which nationalists in Moscow argue is culturally indivisible from the old Slavic motherland. Ukrainian nationalists vehemently disagree. The same goes for Belarus (official Russian population: 11.4 per cent, around 1 million people).

But the greatest tensions are in two of the Baltic States: Latvia (29.6 per cent Russian) and Estonia (25.6 per cent Russian). Although they formed part of the Russian empire in the 19th century, the Balts broke away when the Soviet Union was formed and were only forcibly reassimilated during the Second World War. Stalin then waged a brutal demographic war, shipping ethnic Latvians and Estonians to Siberia, and settling Russians in their place.

When they regained independence, Latvia and Estonia didn't give citizenship to many of their resident Russians, whom they saw as the remnants of an occupying force. Moscow continues to agitate on behalf of them, which the Balts see as flagrant imperialism. Last year rioting broke out in Tallinn between Estonians and Russians over a decision to take down a Soviet-era war memorial.

Where the allegiance of the millions of Russians spread throughout the former USSR lies isn't known. But it is clear that the Kremlin sees itself as their rightful protector. Or rather, it sees strategic advantage in laying claim to that status.

Fear of Russian 'protection' spreads to Ukraine and the Baltic

[Shammu]

Iran gambles over Georgia's crisis
By Kaveh L Afrasiabi

Georgia is one of Iran's "near neighbors" and as a result of geographical proximity and important political and geostrategic considerations, the current Russia-Georgia conflict is closely watched by Tehran, itself under threat of military action by the US and or Israel, which may now feel less constrained about attacking Iran in light of Russia's war with Georgia.

So far, Tehran has not adopted an official position, limiting itself to a telephone conference between Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki and his Russian counterpart, Sergei Lavrov, expressing Iran's desire to see a speedy end of the conflict for the sake of "peace and stability in the region". Tehran's dailies have likewise refrained from in-depth analyses of the crisis and from providing editorial perspectives, and the government-owned media have stayed clear of any coverage that might raise Moscow's objection.

Behind Iran's official silence is a combination of factors. These range from Iran's common cause with Moscow against expansion of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), interpreting this crisis as a major setback for NATO's "eastward expansion" in light of the unabashed pro-West predilections of Tbilisi's government, to Iran's sensitivity to Russia's national security concerns. The latter are heightened by the US's plans to install anti-missile systems in Eastern Europe, not to overlook Iran's concern as not to give the Kremlin any ammunition that could be used against it in Tehran's standoff over its nuclear program.

Representing a serious new rift in US-Russia relations, the conflict in the Caucasus, paralyzing the UN Security Council and igniting Cold War-type rhetoric between the two military superpowers, is simultaneously a major distraction from the Iran nuclear crisis and may even spell doom for the multilateralist "Iran Six" diplomacy. This involves the US, Britain, Russia, France, China and Germany in negotiations over Iran's uranium-enrichment program, which some believed is aimed at making nuclear weapons.

Much depends on the scope and duration of the Georgia crisis and, yet, there is also the obverse possibility that Moscow, intent on polishing its tarnished image - as a rogue power coercing its smaller neighbors and violating their territorial sovereignty - may even double its efforts on other fronts to compensate for the damage to its international standing, given the US's threat of kicking Russia out of the Group of Eight.

As far as Iran is concerned, the Georgia crisis is not confined to South Caucasus and has broader implications for region, including Central Asia and the Caspian area, that are both positive and negative. That is, it is a mixed blessing, one that is both an ominous development signaling a new level of Russian militarism as well as a crisis of opportunity, to forge closer ties with Russia and enhance its chance of membership in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, the grouping dominated by Russia and China.

Yet, the immediate gains for Iran may not exceed the net losses in the long run and Tehran may have blundered by not forcefully criticizing Moscow's violation of Georgia's sovereignty. Iran and Georgia have strong historical connections: Iran was in possession of Georgia for some 400 years until the humiliating defeats at the hands of tsarist Russia in the early 19th century, culminating in the Russia-Iran Treaties of Gulistan in 1813 and Turkmanchai in 1828. Under these, about a third of Iranian territory was ceded to Russia, including Georgia and Armenia.

Then and now, Iran remains weary of Russia's imperial intentions and, more recently, this was evident seven years ago when in the aftermath of a failed summit on the division of Caspian Sea, the then-president Vladimir Putin ordered a massive naval maneuver in the Caspian Sea as a stern message to Iran.

Should Putin, now premier, succeed with his "splendid little war" in South Caucasus, Russia's neighbors to the east must expect to see more samples of Russian power projection, again a prospect that simultaneously entices and yet terrifies Iran and is bound to have contradictory policy ramifications for Tehran's decision-makers.

Thus, on the one hand, no matter how cordial present Iran-Russia relations may be, the big neighbor's power and increasing militarism impacts Iran's national security calculus and may strengthen the arguments of those who are in favor of a nuclear defense strategy.

On the other hand, there is no doubt Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov's statement that the world "can forget about Georgia's territorial integrity" is unacceptable to Tehran, which has recently submitted a package of proposals focusing on international cooperation.

Russia's exercise of power is substantively the same as the US's illegal post-September 11, 2001, invasions of Afghanistan and Iraq and, naturally, Iran cannot adopt one set of standards for one and another for the other, irrespective of Moscow's legitimate grievances about the US's and NATO's intentions and actions around it.

Rather, Tehran must demonstrate consistency with its own foreign policy criteria, otherwise its international prestige and regional standing will suffer, no matter how the Kremlin may be displeased with a bold, yet principled, Iranian stance on this neighboring crisis.

What is more, whereas Iran during the presidency of Mohammad Khatami offered to play a mediating role in the Chechen crisis, today there is a conspicuous absence of any similar gesture on Tehran's part. This is unfortunate since Iran can indeed play an effective role in "third-party" mediation.

Mediation in international conflicts requires skilled negotiation and facilitation of dialogue between the hostile parties and, in this case, Iran could take advantage of its impartiality and proximity to the warring sides to act as a successful mediator, perhaps in tandem with other actors, such as the UN and the OSCE (Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe), in light of past Iran-OSCE collaboration with respect to the civil war in Tajikistan and the Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict over the disputed territory of Nagorno-Karabakh.

Instead of adopting such proactive steps, Tehran has settled for a quiet diplomacy, as a passive bystander, thus causing an attrition of its image as a regional player, which it can remedy by a timely intervention as a mediator in line with its own foreign policy principles and standards.

Russia's action against Georgia violates the UN charter and causes collateral damage on the integrity and security of the sovereign rights of Russia's other neighbors, including Iran, which a mere half a century ago was threatened by partition when the Soviet red army refused to leave northern Iran at the end of World War II.

Clearly, as with the collapse of the Doha rounds of negotiations on world trade, the crisis in South Caucasus reflects a serious erosion of international law and growing anarchy in international affairs, a sliding back toward the Cold War bifurcations and the renewal of the big power sphere of influence politics, albeit rationalized as Russia's own "Monroe doctrine", precisely when such bifurcations and seemingly defunct doctrines and cliches appear a relic of a bygone era.

The new post-Cold War era still remains a largely unfulfilled premise, or rather promise on the part of the big powers, which need to give up their propensity to use hard power to pursue their imperial intentions. But, old habits die hard and the US's NATO-led intervention in Russia's backyard has elicited in essence today's Russia's military gambit inside Georgian territory. This is a sobering lesson of how that premise still remains simply a potential, a wishful dream.

Iran gambles over Georgia's crisis 

[Shammu]

Russia claims pullback but forces move other way

By MIKE ECKEL, Associated Press Writer Mon Aug 18, 7:37 PM ET

GORI, Georgia - Russia said Monday it had begun withdrawing from the conflict zone in Georgia, but it held fast to key positions and sent some of its troops in the opposite direction — closer to the Georgian capital.
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Russian troops and vehicles roamed freely around the strategically located central city of Gori, Russian forces appeared to blow up the runway at a military base in the western town of Senaki.

There were few signs Russia was following the terms of a cease-fire to end the short war, which has driven tensions between Russia and the West to some of their highest levels since the breakup of the Soviet Union.

In Paris, the French foreign minister said it appeared "we are witnessing the start" of a Russian withdrawal, but warned France would call an emergency meeting of the European Council to talk about consequences for Russia if that was not the case.

But U.S. defense and military officials said they had seen no significant movement yet of Russian troops withdrawing from Georgia.

Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, on her way to an emergency meeting of NATO foreign ministers, said Russia was playing a "very dangerous game and perhaps one the Russians want to reconsider."

She said the United States and its allies would not allow Russia to draw a "new line" through Europe and intimidate former Soviet republics and former satellite states.

The foreign ministers were set to meet Tuesday in Brussels, Belgium, to consider whether to go ahead with upcoming activities planned with Russia, from military exercises to diplomatic meetings.

The European Union-brokered peace plan signed by both Russian President Dmitry Medvedev and Georgian President Mikhail Saakashvili calls for both sides to pull forces back to the positions they held before fighting broke out Aug. 7. Medvedev had told French President Nicolas Sarkozy on Sunday that Russian troops would begin pulling back on Monday, but stopped short of promising they would return to Russia.

Russia sent its tanks and troops into Georgia after Georgia cracked down on the separatist, pro-Russian province of South Ossetia. Fighting has also flared in a second breakaway region, Abkhazia.

In Moscow, the deputy chief of the Russian general staff, Col.-Gen. Anatoly Nogovitsyn, told a briefing that "today, according to the peace plan, the withdrawal of Russian peacekeepers and reinforcements has begun" and said forces were leaving Gori.

But Russian tanks and troops roamed freely around the city and made forays toward the Georgian capital of Tbilisi, 55 miles to the southeast. Russia also kept control of the critical highway that slices through Georgia's midsection.

AP reporters saw four Russian armored personnel carriers, each carrying about 15 men, rolling from Gori to Igoeti, a crossroads town even closer to Tbilisi, passing Georgian soldiers who sat by the roadside.

The Russians moved into Igoeti then turned off onto a side road. As the Russian vehicles rolled past a group of Georgian soldiers and policemen, one swerved and scraped a new Georgian police car. The Georgians looked down at their fingernails.

U.S. officials, speaking on condition of anonymity because they were discussing intelligence reports, said at least one Russian battalion equipped with more than a dozen SS-21 missile launchers had moved into South Ossetia, within range of Tbilisi. Nogovitsyn disputed the claim.

The RIA-Novosti news agency reported that the leader of South Ossetia, Eduard Kokoity, asked Russia on Monday to establish a permanent base there.

Nogovitsyn said the Russian troops were pulling back to South Ossetia, but the boundaries of the Russian presence remained unclear. He said "troops should not be in the territory of Georgia," but it was unclear whether that excluded patrols.

Russian troops were restricting access to Gori, where shops were shut and people milled around on the central square.

"The city is a cold place now. People are fearful," said Nona Khizanishvili, 44, who fled Gori a week ago for an outlying village and returned Monday, trying to reach her son in Tbilisi.

Georgia's Rustavi-2 television showed footage of a Russian armored vehicle smashing through a group of Georgian police cars barricading the road to Gori on Monday. One of the cars was dragged along the street by the Russian armor. Georgian police stood by without even raising their guns as the Russian vehicle crushed through the roadblock.

In Senaki, a series of explosions were heard from the military base in the afternoon. Later, three separate blasts that appeared to destroy the airport runway shook the leaves on trees more than a mile away.

Georgian Interior Ministry spokesman Shota Utiashvili said Russian forces had blown up the runway. There was no confirmation from Russian military officials.

Earlier, Russian troops had allowed displaced people to get to the base to retrieve their belongings. Cars emerged loaded with goods, including televisions and refrigerators.

A planned exchange of prisoners captured during the fighting fell through, with each sides blaming the other. It was not clear how many prisoners were to be exchanged. Georgian officials another attempt could take place Tuesday.

In Vladikavkaz, near the border with Georgia, Medvedev gave medals to 30 soldiers and servicemen involved in the conflict. He called them heroes and said they had fought "a cowardly aggression.

"I am sure that such a well conducted, effective peacemaking operation aimed at protecting our citizens and other people will be among the most glorious deeds of the Russian military," Medvedev said.

While Western leaders have called Russia's response disproportionate, Medvedev repeated Russian accusations of genocide.

"The world realized that even now there are political freaks who were ready to kill innocent people for the sake of political fashions and who compensated for their own stupidity by eliminating a whole nation," he said.

An Associated Press cameraman was slightly injured outside Gori after four men in camouflage, possibly from an Ossetian militia, pulled up in a car and told him to stop filming.

When the cameraman resisted, the driver produced a pistol and started shooting at the ground. The cameraman, who sustained light ricochet wounds to his legs, handed over the cassette.

The Pentagon said that up to five C-130 aircraft are expected to fly into Georgia Tuesday with supplies, and that three had landed Monday as part of the relief effort. In addition to food, medical aid, tents and bedding, the U.S. is sending forklifts to help unload and move the supplies.

The United Nations refugee agency said more than 158,000 people had been displaced by the conflict, most of them within Georgia.

"I think the Russians will pull out, but will damage Georgia strongly," said Givi Sikharulidze, who lives in Tbilisi. "Georgia will survive, but Russia has lost its credibility in the eyes of the world."

Russia claims pullback but forces move other way

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Sarkozy warns Russia: withdraw from South Ossetia or face the consequences
French president calls on Medvedev to honour pledge as US and Germany add to pressure on Moscow
Jenny Percival and agencies
guardian.co.uk,
Sunday August 17 2008 16:00 BST

The French president, Nicholas Sarkozy, today warned Russia of "serious consequences" if it failed to honour its pledge to begin withdrawing its troops from the separatist-held Georgian region of South Ossetia tomorrow.

Sarkozy's warning was reiterated by the US secretary of state, Condoleezza Rice, and the German chancellor, Angela Merkel, as Russia came under intense international pressure to support the ceasefire it signed on Friday.

Sarkozy, who drafted the truce agreement in his role as EU president, warned the Russian president, Dmitry Medvedev, that failure to pull out under a ceasefire deal would have "serious consequences" for Russia's ties with the EU.

Sarkozy's office said he had told Medvedev there must be a "withdrawal, without delay" of all Russian military forces in Georgia. His office said Medvedev had promised the troop withdrawal would begin tomorrow at around midday.

The two men spoke by telephone yesterday, but details of their conversation were only revealed this afternoon.

His warning was followed by strong criticism from Rice, who accused Medvedev of failing to honour his pledge to withdraw troops quickly.

"I hope he intends to honour the pledge this time," Rice said on the US TV show Meet the Press. She said the Russians had said earlier in the crisis that they would start pulling troops from Georgia but had not done so. "This time I hope he means it ... people are going to begin to wonder if Russia can be trusted."

The US defence secretary, Robert Gates, stepped up the hardline rhetoric, saying he believed Russia was showing signs of returning to its authoritarian past. He said its actions would require the US to re-evaluate its relationship with Moscow.

On a visit to Georgia to meet President Mikhail Saakashvili, Merkel called for "very fast" Russian withdrawal from Georgia and gave strong support to Georgia, saying it was on track to become a member of Nato.

The announcement of a Russian timetable for withdrawal followed a morning of conflicting reports about whether or not the Russian pull-out had begun.

The commander of Russian forces in Georgia said some troops were moving out of South Ossetia. Speaking outside the strategic Georgian city of Gori, Major General Vyachislav Borisov told the Associated Press that a "planned withdrawal" approved by the Russian president was under way.

Minutes later, a spokesman for the Russian defence ministry said a withdrawal was under consideration but had not yet started.

The South Ossetian interior minister, Mikhail Mindzayev, speaking by phone from the Ossetian capital, Tskhinvali, also denied a withdrawal was under way. Alexander Lomaia, the head of Georgia's national security council, said Russian tanks remained in Gori and were "moving deeper" within the country.

Pope Benedict expressed hope that the ceasefire would turn into a stable peace, and called for the urgent opening of humanitarian corridors between Georgia and South Ossetia. According to the United Nations refugee agency UNHCR, nearly 100,000 people have been driven from their homes by the conflict.

Medvedev signed yesterday's agreement in the Russian Black Sea resort of Sochi, 20km from the border with Abkhazia, Georgia's second breakaway province. Analysts said they expected Russia to absorb Abkhazia and South Ossetia into the Russian Federation - possibly within days. Both territories are likely to hold referendums calling for a formal association with Russia.

The six-point ceasefire agreement authorises Russia to carry out "additional security measures on a temporary basis" until an international peacekeeping force arrives in Georgia. This requires a UN resolution.

Last night, the US president, George Bush, cautiously welcomed Russia's apparent commitment. He described the deal, also signed by Saakashvili on Friday, as a "helpful step". Bush reaffirmed his commitment to Georgia's battered territorial integrity, saying the issue was not up for debate.

The British foreign secretary, David Miliband, praised the ceasefire move but said he was "concerned" by reports of continuing Russian military action.

Yesterday, Georgia claimed Russia was still destroying its civilian and military infrastructure. It said Russian soldiers had blown up a railway line near the town of Kaspi, outside Tbilisi - severing the last railway link between the east and west of the country. Moscow denied this.

Russian military helicopters also attacked Borjomi national park - setting fire to huge areas of protected forest, Georgian officials said. Borjomi, a popular spa town since Tsarist times, is home to endangered species, including bears.

There are growing claims of atrocities committed by irregular militias, to which the Russian forces are accused of turning a blind eye. The Observer has witnessed half a dozen assaults and robberies of civilians and journalists by mercenaries in the past five days.

Sarkozy warns Russia: withdraw from South Ossetia or face the consequences

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Russia moves SS-21 missiles into Georgia: US defense official

11 hours ago

WASHINGTON (AFP) — Russia has moved short-range SS-21 missiles into South Ossetia, possibly putting the Georgian capital Tbilisi in range, a US defense official said Monday.

The development came amid other signs that Russia was adding ground troops and equipment to its force in South Ossetia and Abkhazia, strengthening its hold over the breakaway regions, officials said.

"We are seeing evidence of SS-21 missiles in South Ossetia," the official said, speaking on condition of anonymity.

The official said the short-range missiles should be capable of targeting Tbilisi.

"We're seeing them solidify their positions in South Ossetia and Abkhazia," the official said, adding that "more troops and more equipment" were evident in the enclaves.

But the official said it was "hard to say" whether Russia has begun pulling any troops out of Georgia into the enclaves.

"I can't say whether they are actually moving people out right now or not, but we do expect them to start moving out. We expect them to move out slowly, so this may take some time," he said.

Russia moves SS-21 missiles into Georgia: US defense official

[Shammu]

Russia Tightens Its Grip
By MICHAEL R. GORDON
August 18, 2008

WASHINGTON — Even as Russia pledged to begin withdrawing its forces from neighboring Georgia on Monday, American officials said the Russian military had been moving launchers for short-range ballistic missiles into South Ossetia, a step that appeared intended to tighten its hold on the breakaway territory.

The Russian military deployed several SS-21 missile launchers and supply vehicles to South Ossetia on Friday, according to American officials familiar with intelligence reports. From the new launching positions north of Tskhinvali, the South Ossetian capital, the missiles can reach much of Georgia, including Tbilisi, the capital.

The Kremlin announced Sunday that Russia’s president, Dmitri A. Medvedev, had promised to begin the troop withdrawal in a conversation with President Nicolas Sarkozy of France, who negotiated a six-point cease-fire agreement. Mr. Medvedev did not specify the pace or scope of the withdrawal, saying only that troops would withdraw to South Ossetia and a so-called security zone on its periphery.

The United States and European leaders reacted with wariness, and Russia’s recent military moves appeared to add an element of frustration.

“Well, I just know that the Russian president said several days ago Russian military operations would stop. They didn’t,” Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice said on NBC’s “Meet the Press.” “This time I hope he means it. You know the word of the Russian president needs to be upheld by his forces.”

Russia’s efforts to strengthen its military position in the region have important political and military implications. American officials have demanded that Russian troops pull back from their positions inside Georgia and that the Russian military presence in the enclaves of South Ossetia and Abkhazia be limited to the Russian peacekeeping force that was there before the conflict erupted earlier this month. Ultimately, American officials say, the Russian peacekeepers themselves should be replaced by a neutral, international peacekeeping force.

But instead of thinning out their forces in South Ossetia, the Russians appear to have been consolidating their presence there by deploying SS-21 missile launchers and, American officials say, by installing surface-to-air missiles near their military headquarters in Tskhinvali. Such moves appear to buttress assertions last week by Russia’s foreign minister, Sergey V. Lavrov, that South Ossetia and Abkhazia are to be separated from Georgia.

Western officials have also been monitoring Russian troop movements, which may be intended to strengthen Russian forces in and around Georgia. A battalion from Russia’s 76th Guards Airborne Division has been deployed from Pskov to Beslan, a city in North Ossetia. Several additional battalions from the 98th Guards Airborne Division at Kostroma also appeared to have been preparing over the weekend for possible deployment to the Caucasus region.

Beyond South Ossetia, the Russian military has taken other steps to raise its profile. In recent days, several Bear-H bombers have carried out training missions over the Black Sea, according to American officials familiar with intelligence reports. The Russian bombers are capable of carrying nonnuclear cruise missiles, and government intelligence analysts have told the Pentagon that a recent Bear training flight appeared to simulate a cruise-missile attack against Georgia.

The Russian moves are seen at the Pentagon as a way for Russia to show that it considers its sphere of influence to include Georgia and other parts of the so-called near abroad zones — Belarus, Ukraine, the Caucasus and the Caspian — close to Russian territory. In general, the actions are seen as a matter of muscle flexing, or “force projection,” in Pentagon parlance, and are not viewed as signs that Russia intends to make a major military push to take Tbilisi.

Russian officials may also be calculating that their nation’s military presence may make some NATO members more skeptical toward accepting Georgia into the alliance. While the United States has strongly supported Georgia’s membership, some allied officials fear they may be dragged into a war in the Caucasus if Georgia is admitted.

Concerns over the military tensions in the region may already have influenced some neighbors. American officials said Turkish officials had denied the United States’ request that an American Navy hospital ship, the Comfort, be allowed to travel through the Turkish straits en route to Georgia. A Bush administration official, who asked not to be identified because of the delicacy of the diplomatic discussions, expressed hope that American officials would eventually persuade the Turks to let the ship pass.

The conflict began Aug. 7 when Georgian troops entered the breakaway region of South Ossetia, which has strong ties to Russia, and Russia responded by sending its own troops deep into Georgian territory. The Kremlin has said Georgia provoked the conflict in South Ossetia, whose populace is hostile to Georgia, and Russian officials have referred to Mikheil Saakashvili, the Georgian president, as a war criminal. Mr. Saakashvili has contended that Russia is determined to turn Georgia into the kind of vassal state that existed during Soviet times.

cont'd next post

[Shammu]

Though Mr. Medvedev announced the end of hostilities last Wednesday, Russian troops have remained in the central city of Gori, which is 40 miles from Tbilisi, and they continue to occupy wide swaths of territory. On Sunday, Western leaders pressed, with increasing unanimity, for Russia to withdraw. Mr. Sarkozy said there would be “serious consequences” for relations between Russia and the European Union if Russian compliance was not “rapid and complete.”

The German chancellor, Angela Merkel, in Tbilisi to meet with Mr. Saakashvili, warned that “this process should not drag out for weeks.” Ms. Merkel also reiterated her support for Georgia’s eventual membership in NATO, a step Russia has fiercely opposed.

The deployment of SS-21 missile launchers to South Ossetia has added to the United States’ concerns. The SS-21 is a short-range ballistic missile carried on a mobile launcher. It can be used to attack command posts and airfield and troop concentrations. Russian forces used the missile in the Chechnya conflict, where it was believed to have caused significant civilian casualties.

James F. Jeffrey, the American deputy national security adviser, told reporters this month that President Bush was informed on Aug. 8 that two SS-21s had been fired into Georgia. He said Mr. Bush “immediately” met with Russia’s prime minister, Vladimir V. Putin, who was also attending the Olympics in Beijing, to express concern over the Russian military actions. Fragments of an SS-21 missile have been found near a police station in the port city of Poti. The rocket struck a police vehicle in front of the station.

But those missiles were fired from Russian territory, an American official said Sunday. In recent days, the official said, SS-21 missile launchers, as well as supply vehicles, have driven south through the Roki Tunnel into South Ossetia and been deployed on an elevated area about 10 miles north of Tskhinvali. That would put them within range of much of Georgia, including Kutaisi, Georgia’s second-largest city, and Tbilisi itself, adding to Russia’s ability to intimidate.

The original cease-fire agreement has been shuttled between Moscow and Tbilisi several times as changes were requested by the Russian and Georgian leaders, who do not disguise their mutual contempt. Among the points left unclear is how far Russian troops will draw back. Under the agreement, Russians have claimed a broad mandate to back up peacekeeping operations both in and out of the conflict zone.

Mr. Medvedev said Sunday that Russian troops would pull back to a security zone established in 1999 by the Joint Control Commission, an international body created to monitor seething tensions between ethnic Georgians and Ossetians. The commission designated a “conflict zone” of about nine miles around Tskhinvali, as well as a long “security corridor,” which extends about eight miles into Georgian-held areas.

Georgia’s foreign minister, Eka Tkeshelashvili, said the current form of the document limits Russian military operations to no more than about nine miles from the border of South Ossetia; prohibits Russian troops from entering urban areas or blocking roads; allows only patrols, as opposed to checkpoints; and would be prohibited as soon as international peacekeepers arrived.

Despite the Kremlin’s pledge of a pullout from Georgia, long lines of Russian military vehicles snaked south on Sunday along the main road from Tskhinvali to Gori in South Ossetia. Large transport trucks carrying power generators, troops, bags of potatoes, chairs and tables wound their way through the villages. A reporter driving south on the road passed lines of vehicles for nearly 40 minutes.

While the Russians have accused Georgian forces of killing many civilians in South Ossetia, it has not been possible for outsiders to corroborate those claims. Nor has it been possible to corroborate Georgian assertions that South Ossetians were purging Georgian villages in “ethnic cleansing” reprisals, although refugees have described a campaign of violence and looting, and tours along the main road show villages with as many as 90 percent of the buildings burned.

The president of South Ossetia, Eduard Kokoity, may have implicated himself in the forced expulsion of Georgians by asserting that they would not be allowed back. Russia’s Foreign Ministry quickly sought on Sunday to minimize the significance of his remark, calling it “an emotional statement made under the influence of the situation resulting from the massive armed attack organized by the Georgian leadership against South Ossetia.”

Russia Tightens Its Grip

[Shammu]

"Yes, yes, we'll pull back, sure we'll sign that peace agreement." All was said with a straight face and a smile at the end. This is far from over!!

I would have expected some movement vs. digging in. And now bringing in short range missiles. 

[Shammu]

Cross us and we will crush you, warns Medvedev
August 19, 2008
Kevin O'Flynn in Moscow

President Medvedev of Russia yesterday promised a “shattering blow” against any foreign power that moved against Russian citizens.

The threat will compound the fears of former Soviet states, which are concerned that they could be next after Russia’s attack on Georgia.

“If someone thinks they can kill our citizens, kill soldiers and officers fulfilling the role of peacekeepers, we will never allow this,” Mr Medvedev told a group of Second World War veterans in Kursk. “Anyone who tries to do this will receive a shattering blow.”

He continued: “Russia has the capabilities - economic, political and military. Nobody has any illusions left about that.”

Russia’s incursion into Georgia, and its reluctance to leave, has alarmed former Soviet states such as Ukraine and the Baltic states of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania.

The war was designed in part to send a message to the former Soviet states that “you can’t solve your problems by running to give the West a hug”, Liliya Shevtsova, an analyst at the Carnegie Centre in Moscow, said.

At the start of the war, Mr Medvedev said it was his constitutional right to defend the “lives and dignity” of Russian citizens. Georgia’s allies now fear that Russia will begin to throw its weight around in defence of the millions of ethnic Russians who live outside the motherland.

The break-up of the Soviet Union left a huge Russian diaspora outside the country. There are more than 8 million ethnic Russians in Ukraine, 4.5 million in Kazakhstan and 1.2 million in the Baltic states.

Russia justified its attack on Georgia by insisting that it was acting to protect the 90 per cent of South Ossetians who have Russian passports.

How many of the passports are genuine is another question, as the region has long been infamous for smuggling and counterfeit passports and dollars.

Yevgeniya Latynina, a columnist, wrote last week that when the South Ossetian leader, Eduard Kokoity, received his passport, he opened it to find that it contained the picture of Abraham Lincoln from a $5 note instead of his own photograph.

Russia’s relations with Ukraine and the Baltic States have worsened in recent years after Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania joined Nato and the EU, and Ukraine tried to follow them.

One man was killed in demonstrations staged by Russians in Tallinn last year after Estonian authorities moved a Second World War monument that had been erected in the city by the Soviet regime. Moscow has complained that ethnic Russians are discriminated against in the Baltic states - an accusation that the EU has supported in some cases.

Ukraine and the Baltic States were quick to support Georgia, but Belarus, normally an ardent supporter of its only ally in Europe, meekly called for a ceasefire. There are more than one million ethnic Russians in Belarus.

The leaders of Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia condemned the actions of Russian forces and travelled to Georgia last week to show solidarity with Tbilisi. Estonia’s Postimees newspaper even published a map explaining the weapons Russia might use against the country.

Ukraine told Moscow that it could not use its Crimea-based Black Sea Fleet in armed conflicts without permission, after warships were deployed near Georgia. On Sunday Ukraine offered to create a joint missile defence network with the West amid fears that its port city of Sevastopol, home of the fleet, could become the next flashpoint between Russia and its former satellite states.

Viktor Yushchenko, Ukraine’s reformist President, who visited Tbilisi last week to support President Saakashvili of Georgia, said that the use of Russian ships for a war violated Ukraine’s neutrality and risked drawing it into conflict.

Ms Shevtsova, however, dismissed the idea that Russia might attack other countries.

“It is not possible,” she said, arguing that Mr Medvedev’s rhetoric was for internal consumption. “It would be suicide for Russia; it is just a show.” (want to bet......DW)

Cross us and we will crush you, warns Medvedev
~~~~~~~~~~

It should not be a surprise that the region of the former Soviet Union is Russia's sphere of influence, where they will tolerate no interference. Not even for a non-Russia controlled oil pipeline.

[HisDaughter]

President Medvedev of Russia yesterday promised a “shattering blow” against any foreign power that moved against Russian citizens.

Sounds like a double-dog dare.  Actually it sounds like he would love someone to press him just so he has an excuse to start something REALLY big.
Ya know, I'd love to have all world leaders under a psych eval.  I bet we'd be horrified at the results.  The folks running the world and their own little countries HAVE to be demented.  I'll bet their brain scans wouldn't look much different than, Daughmer's, or Bundy's, Jack the Ripper...Hitler, Daffy Duck...

[Shammu]

Sounds like a double-dog dare.  Actually it sounds like he would love someone to press him just so he has an excuse to start something REALLY big.
Ya know, I'd love to have all world leaders under a psych eval.  I bet we'd be horrified at the results.  The folks running the world and their own little countries HAVE to be demented.  I'll bet their brain scans wouldn't look much different than, Daughmer's, or Bundy's, Jack the Ripper...Hitler, Daffy Duck...

Daffy Duck

Why Daffy Duck is sane compared to the rest of them.........

[Barbara]

Absolutely right, grammyluv --- they all seem to be 'ragingly insane'

And DreamWeaver, thanks for that information - especially the article about the impact and historical relationship with Iran - extremely interesting!

There seems to be an incredible convergence here - We've got the largest US naval build-up in that area since the 2003 invasion of Iraq;

There is still the August 22nd announcement (maybe it will be put off??) from ImANutJob;

and Russia is deeply involved in a Georgia conflict and doesn't seem to be leaving.

With tensions in many neighboring countries, do you think this could push ImANutJob into doing something pre-emptive? Though I know that there are many Russian 'Advisors' in Iran that are very involved with their nuclear program.
Do you think that the Aug. 22nd announcement could be put off for awhile or maybe it will add to the tensions?

All of these situations are tremendous. According to Luke 21:36 we are to 'watch and pray' as we see these things approaching, and to pray that we might "be able to escape all that is about to happen".

There is much to ponder.....but I know we have to wait on the LORD and His perfect timing!!!! Night is coming and this is truly a time to "Watch and Pray"
and to do His work!

[Soldier4Christ]

There is much to ponder.....but I know we have to wait on the LORD and His perfect timing!!!! Night is coming and this is truly a time to "Watch and Pray"
and to do His work!

Amen! Irregardless of how much time we may or may not have it is definitely time to do His work. There is so much that still needs done, so many that are dying in their sins, so many that need to hear of His loving grace. There is never "a better time" to tell others about Jesus Christ. The time is now.


For those that are reading this, If you haven't accepted Christ as your Saviour, the time is running short, the time is now. Won't you call on His name right now for your salvation?


Rom 1:16  For I am not ashamed of the gospel of Christ: for it is the
power of God unto salvation to every one that believeth; to the Jew
first, and also to the Greek.
Rom 1:17  For therein is the righteousness of God revealed from faith
to faith: as it is written, The just shall live by faith.

Salvation, salvation from death under the law by God's perfect grace.

Rom 3:10  As it is written, There is none righteous, no, not one:
Rom 3:11  There is none that understandeth, there is none that seeketh
after God.
Rom 3:12  They are all gone out of the way, they are together become
unprofitable; there is none that doeth good, no, not one.

Rom 3:23  For all have sinned, and come short of the glory of God;

Rom 5:12  Wherefore, as by one man sin entered into the world, and
death by sin; and so death passed upon all men, for that all have
sinned:

Rom 6:23  For the wages of sin is death; but the gift of God is
eternal life through Jesus Christ our Lord.

Rom 1:18  For the wrath of God is revealed from heaven against all
ungodliness and unrighteousness of men, who hold the truth in
unrighteousness;

Rom 3:20  Therefore by the deeds of the law there shall no flesh be
justified in his sight: for by the law is the knowledge of sin.

Rom 3:27  Where is boasting then? It is excluded. By what law? of
works? Nay: but by the law of faith.

Rom 5:8  But God commendeth his love toward us, in that, while we were
yet sinners, Christ died for us.
Rom 5:9  Much more then, being now justified by his blood, we shall be
saved from wrath through him.

Rom 2:4  Or despisest thou the riches of his goodness and forbearance
and longsuffering; not knowing that the goodness of God leadeth thee
to repentance?

Rom 3:22  Even the righteousness of God which is by faith of Jesus
Christ unto all and upon all them that believe: for there is no
difference:

Rom 3:28  Therefore we conclude that a man is justified by faith
without the deeds of the law.

Rom 10:9  That if thou shalt confess with thy mouth the Lord Jesus,
and shalt believe in thine heart that God hath raised him from the
dead, thou shalt be saved.

Rom 4:21  And being fully persuaded that, what he had promised, he was
able also to perform.

Rom 4:24  But for us also, to whom it shall be imputed, if we believe
on him that raised up Jesus our Lord from the dead;

Rom 5:1  Therefore being justified by faith, we have peace with God
through our Lord Jesus Christ:

Rom 10:10  For with the heart man believeth unto righteousness; and
with the mouth confession is made unto salvation.

Rom 10:13  For whosoever shall call upon the name of the Lord shall be saved.

[Soldier4Christ]

Russia warns of response to US missile shield

Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and her Polish counterpart signed a deal Wednesday to build a U.S. missile defense base in Poland, an agreement that prompted an infuriated Russia to warn of a possible attack against the former Soviet satellite.

Rice dismissed blustery comments from Russian leaders who say Warsaw's hosting of 10 U.S. interceptor missiles just 115 miles from Russia's westernmost frontier opens the country up to attack.

Such comments "border on the bizarre frankly," Rice said, speaking to reporters traveling with her in Warsaw.

"When you threaten Poland, you perhaps forget that it is not 1988," Rice said. "It's 2008 and the United States has a ... firm treaty guarantee to defend Poland's territory as if it was the territory of the United States. So it's probably not wise to throw these threats around."

The deal, which Washington sought as a way of defending the U.S. and Europe from a hypothetical threat of long-distance missiles from Iran, has strained relations between Moscow and the West. Those ties were already troubled by Russia's invasion of its former Soviet neighbor, U.S. ally Georgia, earlier this month.

Speaking to reporters traveling with her, Rice said, "the Russians are losing their credibility."

Rice and Polish Foreign Minister Radek Sikorski signed the deal Wednesday morning.

"It is an agreement which will help us to respond to the threats of the 21st century," she said afterward.

Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk said the agreement came after tough but friendly negotiations.

"We have achieved our main goals, which means that our country and the United States will be more secure," he said.

After Warsaw and Washington announced the agreement on the deal last week, top Russian Gen. Anatoly Nogovitsyn warned that Poland is risking attack, and possibly a nuclear one, by deploying the American missile defense system, Russia's Interfax news agency reported.

Poles have been shaken by the threats, but NATO Secretary General Jaap de Hoop dismissed them Tuesday as "pathetic rhetoric."

"It is unhelpful and it leads nowhere," he told reporters at a NATO meeting in Brussels, Belgium.

Many Poles consider the agreement a form of protection at a time when Russia's invasion of Georgia has generated alarm throughout Eastern Europe. Poland is a member of the European Union and NATO, and the deal is expected to deepen its military partnership with Washington.

Polish President Lech Kaczynski also expressed "great satisfaction" at the outcome of the long months of negotiations.

Poland and the United States spent a year and a half negotiating, and talks recently had snagged on Poland's demands that the U.S. bolster Polish security with Patriot missiles in exchange for hosting the missile defense base.

Washington agreed to do so last week, as Poland invoked the Georgia conflict to strengthen its case.

The Patriots are meant to protect Poland from short-range missiles from neighbors—such as Russia.

The U.S. already has reached an agreement with the government in Prague to place the second component of the missile defense shield—a radar tracking system—in the Czech Republic, Poland's southwestern neighbor and another formerly communist country.

Approval is still needed the Czech and Polish parliaments.

No date has been set for the Polish parliament to consider the agreement, but it should face no difficulties in Warsaw, where it enjoys the support of the largest opposition party as well as the government.

Russia says its response to the further development of a U.S. missile shield in Poland will go beyond diplomacy.

Russia's Foreign Ministry issued a statement saying the U.S. missile shield plans are clearly aimed at weakening Russia.

The U.S. says the missile defense system is aimed at protecting the U.S. and Europe from future attacks from states like Iran.

The United States and Poland signed a deal Wednesday to place a U.S. missile defense base just 115 miles from Russia's westernmost fringe.